Did PB help determine the Glenrothes date?
October 8th, 2008Was it Morus’s argument that caused November 6th to be chosen?
During my visit to Westminster today I got talking with one key player who is close to the Brown camp who believes that it was highly likely that Morus’s post in mid-August played in key part in determining the date for the Glenrothes by election.
This is the fight in the adjoining constituency to Gord’s which if it went to the SNP would be highly embarrassing to the Prime Minister. There were suggestions before the conference season that a Labour defeat there would spell the end for Brown.
I’m not so sure that that still applies - the financial crisis and Gord’s ability to operate in an area in which he is confident have given him a fresh boost and I don’t think the by election will be as critical as it might have appeared.
But there’s one thing for certain - whatever happens there the news is likely to be eclipsed by the results of the US Presidential election which will only be known only a few hours beforehand. With the whole world focussing on Obama/McCain’s/Palin’s victory news of a minor election in Scotland is not going to command that much attention.
As to the vote itself I’m becoming less convinced that this will be a certainty for the SNP that it appeared a week or so ago. Labour has been doing very well north of the borders and the party could just pull off a shock victory. The last time there were betting prices up the price was 5/2 - might be worth the punt.
Well done Morus. if Labour had any money we would demand a consultancy fee.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
First?
FTSE closes at 4378. What chance sub-4000 tomorrow?
1 yes
And in one leap he was free. Admittedly, the giant has been slumbering for a year or more, but Gordon Brown is a giant nonetheless; and today, as global finances teetered, political opponents squealed and world leaders stormed to his door, Gordon Brown rose from his slumbers, cast about a mighty eye and saved the United Kingdom from catastrophe and capitalism from itself.
Yes, this was a highly intelligent plan: clever, foresighted, deft, wise – those synonyms for sagacity trip from the keyboard. But it had another quality too that no one who has seen this shy, stolid, industrious son of manse about his business would ever question: courage. It takes courage to confront the all-powerful spivs of the City with their soaring skyscrapers and infinite cheque books. Thatcher, Major, Blair, they all fawned, but a man whose roots are as deep in the Labour movement as the Labour movement is itself deep would never curtail to their moneyed hubris. Thus Gordon, aided admirably by his fellow Scott the calm and thoughtful Alistair Darling took the entire British banking system – for so long the very exemplar of spite and greed – into public ownership. And in so doing made them part of all of us. It was spine tingling stuff.
And now? An historic Labour fourth term seems all but inevitable and with it further implementations of plans laid down twenty-five years by that other hero of Labour and saviour of the oppressed Michael Foot. We await with anticipation. And for the Tories? They have used up Plan Z. Nothing but oblivion awaits them.
Morus exposed as a Labour Party mole, buried deep inside PB! Kill him!!
2 - It will end up tomorrow I imagine!
All power to PB!
3 - woohoo
On topic - haven’t Labour privately conceded defeat here already?
“Labour has been doing very well north of the border… “
Err… to what exactly are you referring Mike. Such a bold statement just begs for some solid evidence.
Take a bow Morus.
4 - I didn’t have you down as the pitch fork type!
“Tavish Scott, the leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats, has said explicitly that HBOS should remain an independent bank and that the merger should be called off.”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/briantaylor/2008/10/what_now_for_hbos.html
‘Backing for Scottish TV channel’
Scottish Conservative leader Annabel Goldie welcomed the First Minister’s announcement, but raised concerns about furnding for the new Scottish digital channel.
http://www.publicservice.co.uk/news_story.asp?id=7306
Sky announce Bob Friend has died:
http://tinyurl.com/4o3kd5
Reposted from last thread.
I think many of you are misinterpreting PMQs.
It will hardly make the news today of all days.
If the PLP are happy with Brown for abit longer, fine.
Cameron has to maintain a bit of calm now.
When he does let lose it will be all the more powerful for that.
He has already set the seeds and many commetators are currently watering them for him, whilst he remains above the fray.
There is much critisism of Brown/Darling for being too slow.
For making a statement on Monday, saying nothing which caused the markets to tank.
For presiding over a big budget deficit that will lead us into a painful recession.
etc etc.
Noone in the news is critisising him for ‘not holding the cards’ or for backing off.
There is a reason Cameron is leader of the Tory party and not some of you. He is better.
Blair said he had good political timing and Brown didn’t. For once, believe Blair.
Too many people on here, on both sides, can’t see further than tonight’s news bulletin.
Look ahead. Half of all UK spending is on credit cards.
Its a long road.
MWahahahaha!!!
Next week: Morus proposes suspension of income tax for Welshmen living in London, and an end to VAT on real ale and port!
Psst! Get Morus to say the only way for Brown to win the next election is to fund the construction of a giant artillery gun and solar powered death ray.
11 interesting - the esteemed (well perhaps not) Mr Peston queried earlier if Lloyds shareholders would now be the eager ones to approve the deal while HBOS ones would vote against.
New IPSOS/McClatchy national poll :
McCain 40% .. Obama 47% .. Barr 1% .. Nader 3%
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=4113
‘Labour might ‘pull off a shock victory’.
Shocking those words seem sensible.
4. Too harsh
Off to Labourhome for a month.
14. Good insights. Sally for leader.
20 too comfortable - Tom Watson’s blog I think.
21 Is Sally C the new Sarah J?*
* - and if you know what I’m talking about, you really are an old timer!
Re. 7, probably, but should an unexpected victory occur, that’ll just make it look even better.
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE (BUTT) poll of polls that indicates :
McCain 45% .. Obama 51% .. Others 4%
The PISSED Jack W Index with added SOAMES BIG MAC weighting shows :
McCain 143 .. Obama 287 .. Toss Up 107
Changes Since Last Projection - South Carolina move from Safe McCain to Likely McCain. Montana moves from Likely McCain to Toss Up McCain.
Toss Up - Up to 5% .. Likely - 5%-10% .. Safe - Over 10%
Eliminate Toss Up States - 270 required for an Electoral College majority.
McCain 162 .. Obama 376
Obama is the 44th President of the United States of America.
……………………
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ………..Jacobite News Network.
ARSE …… Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
BUTT …… British Underpinned Tracking Totals
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
BIG MAC ..Ballot Indicies Grid Manifesting America’s Choice
23 - Dr Steve…there are few left standing who do.
23. But i’m not. I only discovered PB during those salad days of Crewe and Nantwich!
Morus - could you post along the lines of “the best time to hold a General Election could be 9th October 2008″. That should do the trick.
If Brown is in his comfort zone, why does he look so rough?
21 Thank you but I’d rather ‘eat my own feet’ than try to govern the Tory Party [ hhhmmm odd thing to say as I've just been asked if I'd stand as local party chair]
18 - Pretty good polling day for McCain until that one (not amazing but right direction for him). Should be noted the IPSOS one was 2-6 October so not the newest.
Presumably none of the others have any substantial post-second debate element? Consensus seems to be a narrow Obama win but probably didn’t shift perceptions much.
23 Shall I google it or will it upset me?
26 - And you look so young Mr O’Brien.
Remember SNP Conference starts this week, now it won’t get any press coverage in the rest of the UK, but given that the SNP are in Government in Scotland, it will be getting wall to wall coverage here.
I’m still very confident that it will be an SNP gain.
I don’t think Labour will win Glenrothes.
23 - Is Tabman the new Rik W?
29. Which association are you looking at? I imagine you could turn Bootle blue!
I had £50 on a LAB HOLD yesterday!
11
If he wants HBOS to remain independent, tax the Scots to provide the £ billions to do it.
Clearly he understands as much about banks as I do about Rembrandts.
30 James. Virtually none. Obama also has big numbers fall off his tracking numbers from Saturday.
Labour peer Lord Hogg of Cumbernauld has died aged 70, following a two-year battle with cancer.
Norman Hogg entered the Commons in 1979 as MP for the East Dunbartonshire constituency and subsequently represented Cumbernauld and Kilsyth.
He left parliament at the 1997 General Election.
After his election to parliament, he became chairman of the Scottish Parliamentary Labour Group and then served as a Scottish Labour whip.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/glasgow_and_west/7659745.stm
36, bad luck. I wish I had that much money to throw away.
Actually, you could win. But what’s your profit margin?
34 - …but I am sure there are pictures out there of both Tabman and Rik W (a historic meeting indeed)…
36. I doubt that.
FTSE predicted to keep falling 2morrow. Dow nearly 200 off
41 MB. In a railway carriage in Compiegne ??
31 I googled to see when she last posted and found Roger serenading her with the words to Bob Dylan’s Sarah so perhaps safer not to take up her mantle.
Roger - one hope from you back in 2005 that I think has been delivered ” I really fancy seeing what Gordon Brown will make of the job when Tony goes.” Now you know.
Looking to the future: do people here think the ever so helpful approach of Cameron will continue next week (presuming the world hasn’t exploded financially) or will he return to hammering Brown?
32 - I’m confused.com
41 - There are indeed. Both were at the inaugural pbc festivity.
The Glasgow Ballieston and Edinburgh Forth Council Byelections are also being held on November 6th .
I agree with Stuart Dickson ( shock , horror ) . The evidence for any Labour recovery in Scotland is very flimsy .
43 - Maybe, I never knew Rik W was that high up in the miltary (territorial division)
‘Has Fred been shredded? RBS says not’
A sub-plot to today’s high drama was the “Has Fred been shredded?” episode. An online report said that Sir Fred “The Shred” Goodwin, the chief executive of Royal Bank of Scotland was being forced to leave the bank as part of the price of the government rescue, along with his chairman Sir Tom McKillop.
Goodwin’s reputation rests on his successful takeover of Nat West and his supporters think he should be kept in place as the best man to integrate ABN and to get the bank back on its feet - a version of the pro-Gordon Brown spin in the political sphere.
Conspiracy theorists reckon there is some kind of tartan stitch-up going on, with Brown and Alistair Darling backing their fellow Scot.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/blog/2008/oct/08/royalbankofscotlandgroup.banking
Fitaloon posted heavily on this on pb.com this morning. I must say that I thought those cut & pastes of his looked decidedly odd. Always be very wary of your sources for stuff like that.
Hmmm.
Are you sure they weren’t just trying to flatter you Mike? Anyway, the fact that you are mixing with such people is a sign of PB’s success. But I hope Mike won’t now become a member of the establishment.
According to Nielsen 42.1% of households watched the second Presidential debate compared to 34.7% for the first. The Veep debate attracted 45% :
http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/media_entertainment/42-of-households-in-top-local-tv-markets-watched-mccain-and-obamas-second-debate/
30 James
Yes, not a bad polling day for McCain at all. Intrade and Betfair have however reacted adversely. Presumably punters are factoring last nite’s debate which, by all accounts, was fairly level at a time when he needed something a bit out the ordinary.
Just had a quick look at labourhome (I wish they’d set it out a bit better) and saw this line from the top article:
“At PMQs Gordon Brown floored the opposition with an announcement of a coordinated interest rate cut of 0.5% in interest rates, plus help for small and medium sized enterprises.”
Several points. Firstly, no-one’s opposing it from the big 3 parties. Secondly, isn’t the Bank of England independent?
Also comes up with this line:
“UK government to advance payment of invoices to 10 days from 30 days for small and medium-sized business - Conservative leader David Cameron is being pummelled by Gordon Brown at today’s Prime Minister’s Question Time - a knockout IMHO”
Brown did have a good day, and Cameron didn’t. But it’s a national emergency, not a day for knockabout. As for being pummelled, Brown had 1 attack. Methinks the nice Labour people, so eager for excuses to believe Brown isn’t electoral poison, are making a mountain out of a molehill.
47. Thanks Mark. The Edinburgh - Forth by-election date was announced a few days ago, but I had not seen the Glasgow - Baillieston date announced yet. All three contests on 6 November - Glenrothes, Baillieston and Forth - are Lab/SNP tussles. The Forth by-election is particularly juicy, with an SNP victory giving a huge boost to the ruling Lib Dem/SNP coalition.
Labour dirty tricks? ->
‘Big Brother John nominates himself to face public vote in by-election’
http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/topstories/Big-Brother-John–nominates.4559158.jp
53. When times are bad, you cling on to everything you can.
52 PtP. According to the CNN, CBS polls and almost all focus groups the debate was a clear win for Obama. That’s what continues to move the markets.
The danger for Brown is when all the pre/early recession turmoil settles down and we enter the 12-18 (IMHO) of steady decline every week he will become an easy target for Cameron. No more boom and bust repeated every week when he gets to his feet.
I think the Labour trolling glee over PMQs today is ample evidence that every straw however short is to be clutched even while the country goes down the pan. The considered polling evidence over the next few weeks will soon bring them back to earth. For the past year they have consistently failed to understand DC’s ability and also where he is coming from. Long may this continue.
Obama wraps the old threads of the US flag around McCain in a new ad in North Carolina :
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/tough_ad_one_obama_north_carol.php
56- Someone on pollster.com said that Obamas Rasmussen number was acually higher yesterday, but that his very high number for Saturday is no longer included. Is that true?
53 - is that the BBC’s report as well
39. East Dunbartonshire, probably the most unpredictable constituency in the UK.
(Apart from Ynys Mon), the only seat held by all four parties…
Also the only seat to be gained from third place in two consecutive elections (Oct ‘74 and ‘79)
Also the only seat to be gained by a defeated government at two consecutive changes of government (Feb ‘74 and ‘79)
28.”Morus - could you post along the lines of “the best time to hold a General Election could be 9th October 2008″. That should do the trick.”
Morus, just propose a date for the GE this side of Christmas, Ta.
the papers and reports on this are hardly room for glee. the “decisive action” was forced on them in the end, with less than 24 hours before the banking system collapsed. irreversible (for a while) damage has been done to the economy. Northern Rock happened over a year ago. There has been plenty of advanced warning and time to consider what was to be done - this needn’t have happened.
29.”If Brown is in his comfort zone, why does he look so rough?”
Finally caught up with the Brown/Darling announcement this morning, Darling looked like he had been tucked up in bed at 10pm the night before, but Brown did look like he had been up all night.
42
I am expecting a rally on the DOW soon.. if only for 1 day.
7 days close in the same direction almost invariably means an extreme and change of trend. The DOW has fallen 5 days in a row.. today will be the 6th..
9050 would be my target– short term.for a temroary bottom.
Iceland currency peg collapsed - being called the shortest peg ever. The govt started at 131 krona per euro and spent E6 million before rolling over - 280-330 krona per euro.
I’m not surprised they told Darling that they didnt have any money.
62.
I totally agree with you Rod. East Dunbartonshire, like Edinburgh South, Aberdeen South and perhaps one or two other Scottish seats, could very easily become a 4-way ‘ultra marginal’ (with all 4 parties in the 20%-30% range), just like the old Inverness, Nairn & Lochaber seat of Sir Russell Johnson
67, it does raise a valid point as to whether the British taxpayer should bail out British savings, but in a foreign bank.
I do feel rather sorry for those caught up in it though.
67- Anywhere to bet on Iceland becoming a Russian puppet state?
62-The only seat Labour won off the Tories in 1979 was Glasgow Cathcart.
60 simon9999. Correct. The high Saturday number fell off the tracker today.
Meanwhile ….
Latest Muhlenberg/Morning Call tracker for Pennsylvania :
McCain 38% .. Obama 50%
Note - Yesterday M-40/O-48.
Crosstabs to follow.
So long, Iceland and thanks for all the fish.
The reason why we should bail out Icesave savers is that the panic caused by people running around the news programmes is bad. The government should not pay out on the interest of course - that is going too far.
Good to see that the FSA actually acted on Kaupthing according to PM, but they should have done something much earlier I think.
The Icelandic government’s forex reserves are about E2 billion at present exchange rates, meaning that if they paid for Icesave, they would be out of cash. I do hope the Icelandic trade unions were not stupid enough to repatriate their cash as was requested.
Prepare for a fire sale of assets.
56 Bugger. I was hoping to mop up some better prices, Jack.
The £ has slipped today after a few good days. Pressure on the £ could well be a consequence of today’s package. When you add to this unemployment, bankruptcies, spending cuts and tax rises you begin to get a sense of what we mean by a busted boom.
70 - On the upside, it has suddenly become a much cheaper holiday destination.
73
Very good!
75 PtP. Although McCain is heading south toward 25 on Intrade I’d expect McCain to spike again before the election. We’ve almost 4 week to go …. events, events.
CNBC in passing mentioned that UK credit cards were being refused in Germany. Anbody else heard this ?
‘ITV demands public money for regional news’
Michael Grade executive chairman of ITV said that his company - which owns the ITV licences in England and Wales - could not afford to run the 6pm regional news bulletins after 2012.
He proposed that news in the “nations and regions” might have to be “provided longer term by a publically funded third party,” and he suggested that the job could be done by ITN, the Press Association or Sky News.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/article4908607.ece
Ok, Gallup have Obama +11. Why the hell are they all over the place?!
79 “… Events, events.”
Got something planned, Jack?
81. Sounds fair enough. Much better deal than Strictly Come Dancing on the licence fee. What kind of public service is that programme exactly?
Latest Gallup tracker :
McCain 41% .. Obama 52%
Note - Yesterday M-42/O-51. Highest ever Gallup Obama lead
Crosstabs to follow.
78
Good to see ur awake Peter.
Trichet speaks and mkt pops.
81 - I would quite happily see the end of regional news programmes. They offer so little that is of any real value.
Regional radio is fine - but there is no need for TV news from the regions.
Save some money and no lose any value - sounds like the best plan to me!
83 PtP. The October Jacobite Surprise !!
Fraser Nelson at CoffeeHouse wind the award for the first “Bonus Scandal” spot - Barclays take <£15bn in funding provided by taxpayer borrowing and plan to pay $2.5bn in bonuses to the Lehman Bros staff its employed in the US.
Bonuses earned driving Lehmans into bankruptcy it could be proclaimed and funded by UK taxpayers.
39.”Fitaloon posted heavily on this on pb.com this morning. I must say that I thought those cut & pastes of his looked decidedly odd. Always be very wary of your sources for stuff like that.”
Stuart, did you bother to look at the sources Fitaloon linked too in his posts on the government package this morning? Its was HM Treasury!
And he did not post heavily it on as you put it on the very subject you have just cut and pasted from a newspaper! He asked if a news report he had just heard was correct, and then linked to this report in the Telegraph with a headline that speaks for itself!
Yo might won’t to correct that insinuation you made!
82. the pedant in me feels the need to point out everything has been within the margin of error, you will slowly go mad if you try to pick out trends from one day to the next
90.My computer laptop is playing up.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/3155667/Royal-Bank-of-Scotland-chiefs-to-be-forced-out-under-bailout-deal.html
I find the polling today very confusing. I simply cannot see why there should be a trend towards McCain. Nevertheless, multiple polls shows this and Gallup is an outlier in this respect.
It will be very interesting to see how yesterday’s debate affects the polling.
Sorry to hear Norman Hogg has died. He was a decent chap, even for a Labour MP.
Mike sorry but in Scotland Labour is becoming more invisible and irrelevant by the day. Other than getting a “rent a mouth” appearance on BBC Newsnight Scotland we hardly ever hear of them these days. Most Scots would have no idea who the new leader of Labour at Holyrood is. Glenrothes is heading one way and that is not Labour.
90. How is the weather up there on your high horse this evening Lady D?
I was just reading your husband’s excited posting on the topic of Fred Goodwin this morning, and I just happened to think “that doesn’t sound right”. That is all: beware what you hear/read!
Can someone who understands, explain in Layman’s terms why HSBC seem to be so completely unaffected by this whole crisis? The fact that Lloyds shares are so far down over the year, despite pretty universal opinion that they have not played the “irresponsibility game” of other banks, suggests that this is as much a crisis of the basic banking model as a crisis of certain banks.
And yet HSBC shares are basically unmoved over the year. Why is their situation so good, where others is so bad?
94. How do you explain the recent sub sample for Scotland in the poll?
Also, why would knowing the Scottish Labour Leader affect how people vote? It’s not a Scottish Parliament seat!
95.Won’t wash Stuart! That was a snotty and undeserved pop at Fitaloon from the Tartan King of cutting and pasting newspaper articles and links!
69. I can understand the upto £50,000 cover and I don’t necessarily agree with it but you have to have stability in the banking system.
In terms of the Iceland banks having all deposits covered then i think it is dreadful, nigh repugnant that the tax payer is paying out for the stupid who put in over £50,000 (or £35k at the time)! The greedy devils who put there money into these banks got a higher interest rate, this was because they were a higher risk. Maybe if clots consulted Financial Advisers this would be less prevalent and any bad advice could be taken to court. I am an out of work Financial Adviser and still pay taxes, I have just debt - the government ain’t going to bail me out but will bail out stupid greedy people who actually have savings! I would rather the small amount of tax i pay went on something useful rather than helping stupid individuals and mismanaged councils out - I hope the councils who have lost money on this surcharge who ever authorised the deposits in at risk banks.
96. HSBC got burned very early on by US sub-prime lending which probably spurred them to make sure they weren’t exposed to this mess.
99. So it’s greedy for rich people to put their money in banks?
100 - But Lloyds weren’t exposed at all, but that hasn’t helped them.
97 - It is possible to be fooled by randomness. Also, subsamples aren’t statistically valid, nor (I believe) are they internally weighted to reflect the balance of the indigenous populations of the regions. If opinion polls should be taken but not inhaled, subsamples should be sniffed at very gently indeed.
99 - Consulting a financial advisor at my bank didn’t do me much good
96. Different exposure to risks, that said I had an interview with them cancelled today that I was going to attend in the near future.
The decisions in the economy seem to be on hold, whilst companies gage what will happen!
102 - They are now they’ve bought HBOS……
97 Charlie if you read my reply to you last night you will see either 9 or 10 reasons why I still expect the sNP to win and I still think by around 5000 which is what Labour insiders think.
Clearly you miss the point. The Scottish electorate has become so detached from Labour that most Labour voters past or present wouldnt have a clue who Ian Gray is because like your party he is almost invisible. We had a couple of days of rent a mouth Murphy but his moment of fame has passed and he can now spend his time trying to cling on to our seat of East Renfrewshire, which like most other Scots on here I confidently expect Richard Cook to return to the Tory fold.
Chris D, who exactly is your husband? When I first read your postings a long time ago now I thought you were a chap (humble apologies)and therefore gay (not that is relevant other than passing curiosity as openly gay activists are still rare in the Scottish Tory Party)though I soon realised you are a Lady.
After watching BBC Six O’Clock News I think Tory concerns over its coverage are unfounded. For first time in decades government spending is ticketed as “Tax payers’ money”. Nick Robinson is shown asking Brown a very critical question about misleading the tax payer. Most of the vox pop inserts are negative.
98. From the queen of snotty and undeserved pops, I will take that as a backhanded compliment.
107.Easterross, its Fitaloon. And no apologies needed for the other assumption, its happened before, its easy to make because so few females post on here.
101. No but they were greedy and stupid for putting all their money in those iclandic banks. Everhead of not putting all your eggs in one basket!
A simple phrase with profound implications! 
Why should tax payers who have next to no savings pay for the mistakes of those with loads of savings who let their caution evapourate?
104. No they probably had the ‘comptent adviser status’ - which means they can sell without supervision but none of the Knowledge/ Qualifications. The CAS status that your local bank adviser may have is a fig leaf for their ignorance! I have the Knowledge/ Qualifications but not the CAS - recently my thoughts on investment strategy when debating economic and market trends have proved more accurate than an adviser with 20 years experience!
Luckily the individual started following my decisions! Lucky for them! 
107. When I first read your postings a long time ago now I thought you were a chap
I had assumed the same!
94 Charlie 5 sheep and 3 dogs is hardly a representative sample of Scottish opinion. The only Scottish polls of any relevance are those taken solely in Scotland or the big 34,000 one because it polled more than a handful of people in the country.
Political support varies widely within a single postcode let alone a constituency in Scotland because of the dogs breakfast of parliamentary seats we had created in 2005. For example Glasgow East was talked off as the land of poverty and depression during the by-election but Nick Palmer found himself canvassing in an area which would not look out of place in an Englih constituency with a 20+% Tory majority.
107 Do you still hold the view that the anti Labour vote will coalesce around the Scottish Tories in Edinburgh South West enough to oust Darling.
Apparently Kent County Council have £50m in Icelandic bank accounts
Evening all
Re: 108 - Will we see some form of public backlash against the bailout and what form will it take ? It’s clear that for many a restoration in confidence would start with the public humiliation of leading banking executives.
Will we see populist talk show hosts and columnists lead this anti-bailout movement as the parties in the HoC seem signed up to it ? There is huge anger about using taxpayer money to bail out banks without some form of “punishment” being meted out on the leading bankers. Call it vindicative if you like but most people would regard it as justice.
110 Chris I thought it might be given his “doric” posting name. Although proud of my Aberdeenshire Jacobite ancestors, I need a translator once I travel east of Fochabers
HSBC doesnt borrow as much in interbank. It has a very balanced proportion of advances to deposits. I also think they didnt do as much weird derivative stuff, but I could be wrong.
RBS is being hurt because they paid a lot for ABN at the top of the market, because they have a relatively high interbank reliance.
HSBC has its own problems it did a lot of investing into US sub-prime lending by buying a big player, but they seem to have sorted it out or at least staunched the flow.
Also the markets are playing the weakest one loses game. Everyone attacks the straggler - first NR, B&B, A&L and now RBS. It makes coordinating attacks easy and without incurring all kinds of problems of collusion.
ITV news was good tonight.
Link to the Gallup tracker :
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111040/Gallup-Daily-Obamas-Lead-Over-McCain-Expands.aspx
93 Most of the polling data coming out today will have been done pre-debate. If it is tracking polling then the figures coming out today will be as a result of Saturday or Sunday’s figure dropping out of the average and Tuesday’s coming in.
For example the Daily Kos tracker shifted one point in McCain’s direction as a result of Saturday’s +13 figure dropping out and Tuesday’s +8 coming in.
If the debate pushes Obama’s numbers up we will start to see it in today’s polling but the full effect won’t be seen in the three day trackers until Friday.
114 Punter, watch Dumfries and Galloway (Lab), Roxburgh etc (LibDem), Edinburgh South (Lab), Edinburgh SW (Darling), Renfrewshire (Murphy)and depending how votes spli between the Tories and SNP Argyll (LibDem), Stirling (Lab), West Aberdeenshire (LibDem) and Perth (SNP) could be the “Galloway” of the GE.
My predictions for the trackers were to see a tightening around now (I know, I know, easy to say that but I’d suggested tightening a few times). This will probably be until the middle of the week when Obama may well pull away again slightly, because of his superior performances in converting undecideds through the debates. This, I wasn’t expecting, I presumed that the debates would be seen more equally than they have been.
The other short term reason for a tightening is the large emphasis on negativity by McCain/Palin over the weekend. It doesn’t work long term because people are given time to compare and find their claims wanting but it worries some enough to work for a few days. I fully expect an aboslute onslaught in the final weekend of the campaign from McCain for that reason.
BTW - Gallup and Rasmussen, the two most worthy trackers via reputation and sample size, get back to their seesaw nature in comparison to each other!
119. I’ve started watching ITN evening news rather than BBC. Much more balanced. Tom Bardby comes across well.
122 Are the Scottish electorate so tactically sophisticated. You predict a big SNP performance but might not that as with Labour in 97 saving many Tories from Lib Dem hands by surging in places they could not win sufficiently to prevent the Lib Dems winning even as others with larger majorities over Labour were swept away. Could not the same save the likes of Darling and Begg.
New Fairleigh Dickinson poll for New Jersey :
McCain 37% .. Obama 50%
http://publicmind.fdu.edu/givesback/tab.html
71. I know that. However East Dunbartonshire was still gained (from third place) by Labour in 1979. Outgoing governments don’t often gain seats, and ED went the wrong way twice. The outgoing Tories gained it in Feb ‘74..
I have been puzzled by the Labour flatulence of today, so if Brown was so good today: will he call an early General Election?
The electorate can then pass its opinion on Gordon’s obvious brilliance?
Go on Gordon call an election!
99. Martin, unfortunately your particular brand of clydeside socialism and class warfare against those nasty greedy reckless people with savings no longer chimes with voters
Just as some on here commented, Bradby said that Labour MPs ‘bizarely took to screaming at their opponents like children’ at PMQs.
Bradby hit the nail on the head.
Cameron’s question was pertinent. As soon as the bonus’s come out there will be hell to pay.
Strategically, Cameron won. He did say Gordon ‘never looked ‘more comfortable’. Though that could be abit double edged for those who think he is selfish.
And when it comes to how to we got here the arguments are going to be very bloody, says Bradby
Not for the Tories it isn’t.
Lets hope most of the blood is confined to politics. Sadly, I doubt that.
115
After BCCI you would think councils might learn prudence.
I took one look at Icelandic banks, shuddered and ran away.
It was hardly rocket science and did not require my accountancy qualifications to see what was going to happen..
I think a few Council FDs losing their jobs would encourage the others…
A good write up for Iain Gray the Leader of the Scottish Group of MSP’s in the Scottish Parliament. He will go far……..
http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/article1754102.ece
117.”110 Chris I thought it might be given his “doric” posting name. Although proud of my Aberdeenshire Jacobite ancestors, I need a translator once I travel east of Fochabers”
It does give it away.
I remember still remember arriving in Aberdeen as a student many years ago, and the trouble I had understanding the locals for the first few months, and that was just coming from up the road in Inverness-shire.
Dow green and FTSE futures up 50ish, Paulson is due to speak later?
133.Yikes, time for a new laptop I think, its behaving badly tonight.
Bob Friend dies
Very easy to say that, but if the Credit rating agencies are giving these banks clean bills of health …
Personally i find it surprising that Fitch, S&P et al aren’t fending off lawsuits by the hundred.
125 Punter, in 1997 in Scotland we saw the voters vote for whoever could kick out a Tory MP. that was why we lost all 11 seats including East Renfrewshire, then called Eastwood where we had an 11,000 majority and Dumfries where we had a 9000 majority previously.
All the seats I list are former Tory seats and last year we made an advance in many of them with the exception of Stirling. The LbDems are heading for a disastrous election in Scotland unless Tavish Scott can undo the damage being caused by Nick Clegg.
Regardless of what the Scottish Sun may say, Ian Gray is a nice guy but a political pigmy. He does have the advantage over most of his party in that he is one of the few Labour party’s senior politicians to have been humped by the Scots Tories since 1997
so he can prepare some of his colleagues for that feeling in 18 months time
137
No: you don’t need a credit agency.. they are all proven lying toerags anyway.. Just common sense…
138 How is he an MSP then.
139 - OK then you’ve got £150 million to invest at periods up to a year. How do you go about doing it, whilst maximising income for the local taxpayer?
138. The damage to the Lib Dems in Scotland was done by Nicol Stephen and his refusal to join the SNP in coalition. A big and potentially terminal mistake.
122.
What is it that gives you hope in Perth & North Perthshire Easterross?
Well done Morus. This crossed my mind when the date was set.
47 & 54. What Baillieston by election? Has the Curran Bun resigned?
David Turner held the Glasgow City Council seat vacated by John Mason MP at a by election in September
133 Chris, where in the county of Inversneckie do you hail from?
I forgot to explain the “Galloway” effect. Nothing to do with “Gorgeous George”. At Holyrood last year the Tories were defending Galloway with the smallest majority of only 99 votes from the SNP. Although the SNP stormed Labour bastions all over Scotland and a couple of “safe” LibDem seats, in Galloway the Tory majority increased from 99 to 3333 virtually making it safe again. Perth has a decent SNP MP in ex-Runrig musician Pete Wishart but it is the most vulnerable SNP at Westminster to a Tory revival simply because of the “genteel” nature of the electorate, no small number of whom are cousins of mine.
129. Ed, as usual you pick the wrong fight on the wrong ground. It is not right that ondinary hard working families pick up the Tab for people who are stupid enough to invest in Banks that have repeated warnings over the level of thier swaps rate: Equal to Bear sterns which collapsed in the states.
The local authorities really should look to surcharging cllrs if it was there decision or after their scrutiny to put their savings with these dodgy banks.
People like me cannot jobs at the moment, the mistakes people make and the tax payer foots the bill makes me extremley frustrated. I was to honest really to be a succesful FA - I don’t believe in just closing a deal because of the commision - it has to be whats best for the customer or as the FSA puts it treating the customer fairly.
140 - he stood in and was elected in East Lothian last year.
Stodge - I agree that committing PUBLIC money to this without anyone taking responsibility/paying the price for this mess will cause a lot of grief. But who do you target to take the flak?
140 Punter, David McLetchie turfed Gray out of Malcolm Rifkind’s old seat in 2003 and subsequently doubled his majority last year. Gray was parachuted into the relatively safe Labour seat of East Lothian last year so he is really just a “new” MSP but he had been a Minister under both Donald Dewar and Henry McLeish.
146. I am talking about icelands banks.
On Glenrothes. Might they regret the choice of date?
What will overshadow defeat, will overshadow victory.
145.
This by-election result would not give me much confidence if I were a Scottish Tory hoping to gain Pete Wishart’s seat:
http://www.alba.org.uk/localby/highland.html
When did Martin Day become a Red Clydeside leftie? Martin I have always taken you to be a Tory slightly disenchanted by your experiences working within the party some years ago.
Stuart I am well aware of the Perthshire council by-election. The STV system can slightly warp things when it comes to by-elections as indeed you will prove when you win another Baillieston seat even though Labour should win it.
149 O/T but the Bailout has now taken the heat of BoS and thrown the competition spanner into the Lloyds deal again. Meantime RBS are under the cosh still. What price a deal to create a Tartan champion? That might help Brown in Scotland possibly.
Re: 148 - Frank, it was public concern that derailed the first attempt to pass the Paulson bailout when voters contacted their Congress rep and made their anger clear.
The position here is different - we are NOT in an election year but the anger will still be palpable. My thought is that it will be mobilised by talk show radio hosts and columnists like Gaunt and Littlejohn.
I just wonder if there are “maverick” Tory/Labour or LD MPs out there who are prepared to break the concensus on this. Perhaps this is an issue for David Davis or someone like that.
Latest ARSE (BUTT)/Daily FAB tracker
McCain 43.2% .. Obama 49.9%
Note Yesterday M-43.4/O-49.8
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David Davis again? He would get a reputation as a nutter.
157 - the eyes have it
The last time there were betting prices up the price was 5/2 - might be worth the punt.
I suggested just the same 3 days ago and was told by two well-informed locals that Labour had absolutely no chance.
Nevertheless, somehow one senses that their prospects are better than when they contested Glasgow East a couple of months ago and I’ve availed myself of £24 worth at 11-4 with Paddy Power to return £90.
153. That’s right - you know more about me than most on here!
I am no leftie!
I am a “Tory” in terms of ideolgy but the tax payer can only foot so much of the bill with reference to the iceland side of things! Yes, British banks should qualify for the £50k limit and even equal to that on the iceland side of things. I just don’t feel it right that some of the tax payers on the breadline should pay for people’s risk in investing in dodgy icelandic banks! Risk & reward are tightly linked!
I could easily for instance get money on a credit card, invest it in a interest account overseas account and then transfer the balance to a Zero percent credit card. Would it be right for the tax payer to pay off my credit card?
Maybe my views are just unpalatble to many! (Watch this an instant 50 replies!!!)
The councillors are responsible for setting the parameters for depositing cash and should be advised by the Treasurer, who I would expect to take advice from credit agencies and only recommend lending to the top rated counterparties. Like any other investor, councils should avoid over-exposure to any individual counter-party. When I managed a local authority’s cash, I set a limit of £5 million for exposure to any individual bank and would only lend to one bank in any individual foreign country.
159 edmund.
Is it significant the the bookies’ prices on Glenrothes have remained unchanged since mid-August? Paddypower 2/9 SNP, 11/4 Lab.
162. That’s my point!
Now that the banks are under State control the management should be paid Civil Service salaries. Is a bank CEO worth more than eg the Perm Sec at MOD?
146 - Treasury Management policy is usually delegated to officers. It’s very easy with hindsight to say how ridiculous it was to have money in these banks. And i accept that some people pay have appreciated that Iceland’s banks weren’t safe 9 months ago.
But ultimately Local Authorities have a choice. They can put £150 million into the Bank of England overnight every day and make no money (causing higher taxes) or have balanced Treasury policies spreading the risk and aiming to maximise income, with a mixture of medium term investments whilst maintaining enough short term capital to meet commitments.
It’s all very well criticising over reliance on Credit Agencies to determine where money can be invested, but what is the alternative? Leave it to the personal judgment of individual officers, on a case by case basis? It’s fair to say that such officers who have to make those judgements will end up demanding salaries of several times what they are now. And some will inevitably make poor judgements as well.
A situation where very highly rated banks are going bust weekly is almost unprecedented in recent history. Treasury Managemen