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Soaring UKIP poll ratings affect several markets

UK political betting has been dominated by the UK Independence Party following a YouGov poll showing that that it could beat the Lib Dems for third place in the Euro Elections. In other surveys UKIP has taken 4-5% out of the Tory share of the vote in the main General Election polls as well one on the race for the London Mayor. This affects the General Election, Party Leaders and the London Mayoral Markets.

The big political question is whether the UKIP effect will be long-lasting or will it fade out as happened after the last Euro Election when UKIP’s Jeffrey Titford (pictured above) became an MEP?

1999 Euro Election - UKIP vote share 6.65%
2001 General Election - UKIP vote share 1.5%

If UKIP maintains the polling levels of this week then it could have big implications for Michael Howard’s Tory revival. One factor helping UKIP in next week’s Euro election is the timing of the election with 14m people having postal ballots. For them the election is over once they’ve mailed the ballot envelope - and 90% will, if previous voting experiments are anything to go by, have done this within the next one or two days. So if this is the high point of UKIP support then it will get maximum benefit from it.

Party Leaders Charles Kennedy is the politician most at risk. If , as the polls predict, UKIP beat the Lib Dems into 4th place in the Euro Election then it could spell his demise? His strong point is that the Lid Dems did so badly in 1999 that there is almost bound to be an improvement. The UKIP poll might be a flash in the pan and there could be a recovery. The best option is to wait until the final opinion polls next week. If UKIP is still ahead then a leadership bet against Kennedy would be worth making.

Labour Leader at General Election. John Prescot’s recent comments are making this very confusing but we are not convinced that Tony Blair will be going so DON’T BET in the Betfair and William Hill market. If you think that Blair will not be there, as last week, William Hill’s price is much better.

Mayor of London - person or party. Last week’s poll showing that Livingstone was 14% ahead was almost solely due to UKIP eating into the Norris vote. If, as in 2000, Norris receives the lion’s share of the UKIP 2nd preferences then it will not upset his chances too much. Interestingly the same poll showed the Tories 6% ahead in the London Aseembly election that is held at the same time. We’ve always said that this is the key figure because all the evidence is that Tory voters will go with the party for the Mayor and won’t switch to Labour.

Treat with great caution the pollsters report that 57% of Londoners are saying they are “certain or very likely” to vote. Last time the polls were also predicting turnouts at well over 50% - on the day it was only 34%. Most of those who did not vote were declared Livingstone supporters. Will the same happen this time? This is a punt but we think that at the current price Norris remains good value. BACK.

White House Race 2004. Again the tightness of the race is not being reflected in the UK prices. The latest round of polls either have Bush and Kerry level pegging or Kerry just ahead. Kerry at 2.1 or more is really good value. This will surely move downwards. BACK KERRY.

Date of General Election. A new market this week and one which confuses many people outside the UK. Surely, they say, you KNOW when the next election will be. Well we don’t - it all upto the Prime Minister who, admittedly, has to get “permission” from the Queen. The hot favourite is April - June 2005 though at 1.4 this does not offer good value. A change of leadership, events in Iraq, or a whole whose of things could impact on this. We’ll watch this market carefully to see if value situations develop.

Party winning most seats at UK General Election. The UKIP poll rise at the expense of the Tories has seen prices slip a little back. Our CALL is to wait until after the June 10 elections. Provided the post-June 10 opinion polls are showing Tories leads of 6% or less then backing Labour should be a good value bet. The Tory success in the 1999 Euro Elections had no impact on subsequent opinion polls or the 2001 General Election.

Spread Betting on Commons seats. The Spread Betting price has eased to:-

LAB 322-332 seats
CON 248-258 seats
LIB 52-57

The magic number of seats to for a Commons majority is 324 - so in spite of everything punters are not confident about Labour’s chances. Wait until after June 10 before betting. There is no value here at the moment. DON’T BET.

NOTE: When we make a call we are stating that we believe that the chances of something happening are better than the odds that are available. All prices quoted are as at time of posting. We endeavour to ensure that material is accurate when posted. However Politicalbetting.com can accept no respnsiblity for the information on the site or opinions expressed. Users make bets entirely at their own risk.

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The Chief Executive and campaign guru of the Lib Dems, Lord Chris Rennard, has done a brilliant job attacking the postal voting experiment and not just over printing problems, the prospect of sealed letter boxes because of industrial action and fraud. He has rightly pointed out the constitutional implications of the Government ignoring the Electoral Commission’s ruling on the scale of the experiment.

But will Lord Rennard’s first action after the Euro Election not be on the postal voting debacle but to have a quiet word with Charles Kennedy about his future?

Could it be that all 3 of the men who led the main parties just nine months ago might be out of their jobs by the General Election?

Already IDS is gone and there is little doubt that the pressure is on Kennedy and Blair.

The less than helpful comments in recent days by John Prescot are putting the focus on Blair - if the Prime Minister is secure then his usually forthright deputy should be saying so clearly and not raising more doubts with every utterance.

If the poll prediction that the Lib Dems might come in 4th place behind UKIP turns out to be correct then the “dump Kennedy” calls within the Lib Dems could be impossible to stop. He is already blamed by many in the party fo not taking the huge opportunity available to the party during the hapless Tory leadership of IDS.

Only being able to come 4th in the post-Iraq war climate would confirm everything his party detractors have been saying.

We have been saying for months that we have not been convinced that either Blair or Kennedy will go but that at least one of them might. Our ongoing call has been to LAY Kennedy and Blair in the Party Leaders -market.

We now believe that as well there is good value in backing the NONE option - meaning that both Kennedy and Blair will be gone. The prices, at 10 or more are still good value.

Picture BBC

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But the Tories are 6% ahead for the London Assembly .
The latest poll putting Ken Livingstone 14% ahead might seem fatal to our London call that the election is very close but we have had nothing this time about turnout or 2nd preferences. We have not had, either, the deep probing about the affect of Ken being Labour candidate discussed here yesterday.

Ken Livingstone might have been able to obliterate all reference to the fact that he is Labour candidate on his campalgn materials but when Londoners vote on June 10 they will see the Labour logo printed next to his name on the ballot paper.

We have been saying for months that with Livingstone as Labour candidate the one in 3 Londoners who will turnout will cast their mayoral vote along party lines. This is the heart of our call. At this stage last time only half of declared Tory supporters said they would vote for Norris - on the day 5 out of 6 did. We expect a near full house on June 10.

The latest YouGov figures for the London assembly show the Tories well ahead and provide real encouragement to Norris backers.If CON supporters vote the party ticket for Mayor then he is in by a clear margin.

The figures are-
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CON 34%
LAB 28%
LDEM 16%
GRN 9%,
UKIP 5%

Following a similar survey in 2000 on party split Labour got 7% less and CON 6% more in the actual election We expect that the differential turnout in outer London will see the CON figure rise by 3-4% at the expense of LAB. The Green 2nd prefs will go to Ken and UKIP to Norris. Last time Norris got most LD 2nd prefs.

Four years ago ICM, the pollster that describes itself as “Britain’s most accurate” reported that among those certain or very likely to vote, Livingstone had 53%, Norris 17 and Frank Dobson and Susan Kramer each had 12%. Three days later Livingstone got 39% to Norris’s 27.1%.

If you are backing Livingstone remember that people tell pollsters that they suppport him but do not vote.Those that support Norris do.

We think that YouGov will be closer than ICM was but that the party split and turnout are critical.

A fascinating election to bet on and Norris is still great value. London election.