politicalbetting.com

Give your favourite blogs the recognition they deserve

The new Total Politics magazine is compiling an annual guide to political blogging in the UK, and are running a competition to find the UK’s top 100 political blogs. Full details can be found here, but the basics are as follows:

1) Choose your top 10 (must be 10) from the Total Politics blog directory

2) Number them in order, with #1 being your favourite and so forth

3) Send them, along with your name and ‘Top 10′ in the subject line to

toptenblogs@totalpolitics.com

The deadline has been moved forward a week, because of printing deadlines, so you must submit your entries by midnight tonight (Friday, 8th August 2008). All entries stand a chance of winning £100 in political books!

As I mentioned last week, PoliticalBetting.com had some success in the recent Witanagemot Club Blogging Awards, winning the ‘Best Election Coverage / Polling Blog’ and ‘Best Discussion / Community’ categories, and coming in the top three for many of the other major categories.

Especially given the successes of the last 12 months - with tens (if not hundreds) of thousands of visitors, record page views (around 2.8m per month), significant MSM coverage (some of it apparently plagiarised), some great social events, and some thrilling election night coverage - I would like to see the Site that Mike Built come as close to the top of the pile as possible. That’s as much arm-twisting as I’m prepared to do - Get Out The Vote!

Remember, submissions to toptenblogs@totalpolitics.com by midnight tonight.

Morus

Could viral videos like this start to have an impact?

Over the past couple of weeks there’s been a bit of a move back to John McCain on the betting markets. Obama’s overseas trip, particularly the mass rally in Berlin, has not gone down well and the presumptive GOP nominee has been deploying what appears to be an effective attack strategy against his Democratic opponent. But still, I believe, McCain is weak on one of the things he can do nothing about - his age.

Almost from the start of this election process I have argued that the inevitable slowing down of responses and decline of the memory function as you grow older, would increasingly become an elections issue. How can you have a Commander-in-Chief who is in his eighth decade?

Well the above viral video is now doing the rounds and makes the case for me. As it gets closer to the election and it starts to get really dirty then the Obama camp have a mass of material to play.

If you are betting against Obama then do so by laying the Democrat on the betting exchanges or selling him on the spread markets. Don’t put a back or buy bet on McCain.

Mike Smithson

What are the chances of him still being there on election day?

Probably the best long-term market where we can plot trends on betting attitudes to Gordon’s survival is the one from Betfair on the line-up of party leaders at the general election.

When it was opened, in June 2007, Ming Campbell was in the mix. He’s now moved on and the “runner” that reflects views on the PM’s survival is the Brown/Cameron price.

Surprisingly this market has not attracted the money that you might have expected - certainly it is nothing like as popular as a similar one with IDS/Blair/Kennedy in the years before the 2005 election.

But the trend is clear - punters now believe that someone other than Mr. Brown will lead Labour at the next general election.

My own soundings bear this out and I am told that the “Gordon must go” positions now being taken by the Guardian columnists, Jackie Ashley and Polly Toynbee have been particularly influential.

What I have not yet heard is a plausible plan as to how his departure could be choreographed. How is a move going to be made and who are going to stick their heads above the parapet?

During his long years at the Treasury the Brown team built up a formidable reputation for their ability to brief against those that were seen as a threat to their boss - the main reason, many believe, why he got his coronation.

Going openly against Gord has never been seen as a good career move - maybe that is now changing?

Mike Smithson

Henry G Manson looks at the record to assess the chances

One of the first things sports punters try to assess is recent form. In political betting this information is scarce and can make for a punting minefield. However last year’s Labour deputy leadership results provide a form guide of sorts for a leadership contest this side of an election. Despite recent exuberance, it doesn’t look at all good for David Miliband who is leading the charge from the Blairite right of the party.

The field of six for deputy spanned much of the political terrain of the Labour Party. Whilst all candidates had differently styles and personalities, it is possible to classify the political broad support as expressed in real first preference votes through the electoral college of unions, parlimentarians and members:

The Blairites (Blears plus 50% Johnson) 20.84% The most ardent Blairite cheerleader in last year’s contest was Hazel Blears and she finished last, despite being the party’s high profile chairperson. The centre-right candidate was Alan Johnson who finished second. Crucially, Johnson was able to use his union background and reach further into the centre ground of the party and the affiliates who make up a third of the vote. I’ve therefore only allocated half of his vote to the Blairite category. It would take an exceptional candidate such as Tony Blair in ‘94 or someone with great reach like Alan Johnson to win from this ideological position.

The Centre (Harman, Benn plus 50% Johnson) 44.2% Hilary Benn and Harriet Harman were the two centrist candidates last time out. I’ve allocated the other half of Johnson’s vote into this section reflecting the view that his union standing and hinterland which wouldn’t be typical of a Blairite challenger. This middle section of the party is where the action is and these candidates benefit from preferences from their left and right. If you want a likely winner look at centrist candidates like Harriet Harman, John Denham, Jack Straw or failing that Alan Johnson.

The Left and Centre-Left (Cruddas and Hain) 34.71% Jon Cruddas led from the left and won the most number of first preferences, despite having no public profile when he launched his candidacy. He faced no hard left candidate but was competing with Peter Hain for territory on the centre-left. Since the deputy leadership election Hain has resigned from Government and has left acres of political ground for Cruddas to plough. This part of the college is sizeable and shouldn’t be underestimated, but as Cruddas’ 3rd place result suggests, it’s hard to beat centrist candidates within the current voting system.

Having no ministerial experience would seriously impair Cruddas’ chances in a leadership contest while the party is in Government. Don’t forget his deputy challenge was around a slightly different proposition to his rivals - more as a link between the grassroots and Government and not the baubles of DPM. These figures suggest that he would get a respectable result but that he is unlikely to win this time. Whichever centrist candidate he supports would have a great chance of winning.

Conclusion Going by the most recent election we can see that only 1 in 5 votes of Labour’s electoral college are from the New Labour right-wing of the party. A leadership candidate with strong centrist appeal would have double the base of an orthodox Blairite like David Miliband - a huge headstart.

The centre ground makes up a massive proportion of Labour’s voting constituencies and I just don’t think Miliband will be able to win against a middle of the road candidate. This election if it took place soon could come down to a choice of Harriet Harman as the centrist candidate tilting to the centre-left or Alan Johnson leaning towards the Blairite right. Between them Harman has the bigger secondary constituency within her reach. If Johnson ducks this and backs Miliband then even more centre space would open up for her and her chances could increase further.

It’s therefore important to take the views of broadsheet commentators with a pinch of salt. Rather than a re-run of the 1994 leadership contest, the electoral college formbook suggests a likely defeat for David Miliband. Harriet Harman is the most certain of the centrist candidates to stand and Mike Smithson has already written about the advantage of a female candidate in Labour contests. These factors combined should make her the firm favourite.

Live Labour leadership prices are here.

Henry G Manson