politicalbetting.com

It’s not been picked up by the pundits or the betting markets but ALL four of the main opinion polls have shown Tory gains in August.

YouGov (Aug 27)
34%(+1) L34%(nc!) LD21% (-2%)
ICM (Aug15)
C33%(+3) L36%(+1) LD22%(-3)
MORI (Aug 16)
C32%(+1) L36%(+4) LD21%(-3)
Populus (Aug 1)
C32%(+3) L32%(-1) LD24% (nc)

With the UKIP effect continuing to unwind there is the potenial for further improvements but all this is being ignored by the betting markets.

Latest spread-betting prices.

LAB 343-351 (+1): CON 210
-218 (-2): LIBD 66-70 (NC)

Remember it was the UKIP surge ahead of the June 10 Euro election that caused Michael Howard to falter. Take this away & the Tories might be heading towards their pre-spring position of 38- 40% in the only anonymous interviewer-free poll that we have at the moment, YouGov.

Why anonymous interviewer-free polls? Because these come closest to replicating a secret ballot and have a proven accuracy measuring Tory support - just look at the consistent performance of
the computer-generated phone polls of Rasmussen last time and YouGov’s internet operation.

When tested in real elections non-anonymous interviewer-based polls almost always understate the Tories and overstate Labour. This happened at the last 3 General Elections and in the June 10 Euro elections.

The conventional pollsters say their advanced techniques are now dealing with this better. But two of them in the figures above have boosted the Labour totals to compensate for those reluctant to tell interviewers their allegiance. We understand the mathematics but question the basis on which this is being done. Only time will tell whether they are right.

A LAB BUY spread bet at 351 seats is as safe as one on Paula Racliffe being re-elected BBC Sports Personality of the Year.

The betting exchange, Betfair, have now opened a market on the Hartlepool by-election. So far there are very few backers and layers but Labour is just favourite over the LDs. Labour are 1/2 while the LD current price is 2/3. This could change quickly.

If I was sitting in front of my computer rather than composing this on my smartphone sitting on a French beach I would be trying to lay Labour at 1/2. There are only 2 parties in it and they are closer than the price suggests.

Although UKIP came 2nd to Labour there in the Euro Elections the LDs came a strong 2nd in the local council poll held at exactly the same time with the same voters.

If Kilroy-Silk had been candidate UKIP might have had a chance. As it stands the UKIP bubble looks as though will burst in Hartlepool giving some relief to Michael Howard.

The convenional bookmaker, William Hill told us 10 days ago that thiey won’t be opening a market on the “Monkey-town” by-election unti the date is fixed and all the candidates are known. This is a pity because there’s a lot of interest.

Today’s YouGov poll has CON 34%(+1), LAB 34%(nc), LD 21%(-2), Oth 11%(nc).

UKIP is at 6% compared with 4% with MORI and 1% with ICM.

They cannot all be right but a sixfold difference must be a record.
.

MORI’s new poll has: CON 32%, LAB 36%, LD 21%. Labour are up 4%. the Tories are up 1%, as UKIP fall one point to 4.

At this stage before the last election MORI was showing a 22% Labour lead with the LDs on 15%. Labour were on 51%.

YouGov should be out tomorrow and UKIP’s rating will be interesting.!

After 94 comments can the thread be continued here?

Many thanks.

Mike Smithson

My General Election Bets

In this last article before my holiday I thought I would set out my personal General Election bets. These are mostly in line with the calls that we’ve made on the site. Some now look silly, some look really good value and some look over-priced - but they all seemed a good idea at the time of being made. They also reflect how attitudes to political outcomes have changed over the past year.

Labour to win most seats at 2/5 at the next GE. This is a banker but, alas, the price means no rich pickings and it’s nearly halved to about 1/4 since June - but this is a better return than the building society. Could it be almost as safe - judging by his actions Tony Blair seems to think so!Prices.

Lib Dem spread BUY bets at 58 and 60 seats which should give me a really big pay-out - the more seats above the bigger the winnings though with this form of betting it works the other way round if you’ve called it wrong. But the markets has moved so much that these bets could be closed down today and there’d still be a big profit. I’m staying in for my jackpot! Prices.

Sell spread bet on number of Labour seats. This will be the big GE bet and I’ve been waiting for the sell price to reach 350 seats before going in but now think that I missed my chance at 346 four weeks ago. I’ll bet when I think the price is best for maximum profit and minimal risk. Labour start with a notional 403 seats so the current sell price envisages 61 losses. Prices.

The Lib Dems to win most seats at the GE which thanks to a free bet for opening an account with the Blue Square is at effective odds of 132/1. Probably the most certain loser on the list but, heck, everybody has dreams and given the electorate has now fallen out of love with Labour as well as the Tories then anything could happen - but don’t put your shirt on it! Prices.

Labour to get less than 336 seats at 2/1 combined with the Tories getting less than 221 seats at 7/4. Unless there’s a big collapse of LD and Nationalist seats at least one of these bets is almost certain to come in and most likely both of them will. What’s elegant is that if Labour gets more than the stated level then the Tories are almost bound to get less - and vice versa. Whichever way you should win. As soon as I mentioned this on the site the bookmaker changed the odds to make it not worthwhile. Bet365 link.

The Tories to get 245 seats or more at 3/1 placed six months ago when YouGov had them at 39-40%. The often repeated claim that YouGov is biased to the Tories doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. The pollster underestimated the party at the ‘01 GE, the ‘03 Scottish Parliament elections and June’s Euro Elections. The Tories have now slipped 6% and the bet is probably a loser. Bet365 link.

An autumn 2004 General Election date at 5/1 placed when the talk was of Blair standing down and a new leader who could go to the country straight away. The alternate scenario was that if Blair stayed it would be a good way for him “to draw a line” under Iraq and its aftermath. This might sill be right and prices have tightened.

100 bets and lays on Betfair “still party leaders” market that was set up while IDS was fighting for his job. On each of the four remaining options - Blair & Kennedy to be still there; just Kennedy; just Blair and “none” I have very substantial winnings to come. This has been a great market to trade in - buying and selling Blair and Kennedy with huge fluctuations whenever either has been under pressure. Prices.

Michael Howard to be Tory Leader at the GE - a range of bets from 5/4 to evens all placed on the afternoon of the IDS confidence vote when the David Davies betting exchange price just collapsed and it was obvious a deal had been done to bring Howard in without a contest. That afternoon you could follow precisely what was happening by looking at the live betting exchange prices. Barring an accident this must be a certaintly now. Prices.

Jack Straw to be “Labour leader at the General Election” at an average of about 30/1 placed when the talk was of Blair going and I’ve never been convinced that Gordon Brown will be his successor. It still could pay off but realistically Blair is going to stay and the bet is a loser.Prices.

And in the US - Democrats to take the White House. After, sadly, winning with a Bush bet in 2000I started backing the Democrats at more than 2/1 on the night of the Iowa caucuses in January. That event seemed to demonstate the determination of the party to put aside faction fighting to focus solely on winning back the White House on November 2. The price has now tightened to less than evens. Prices.

All told I think I’ll end up well in the black although I get really hammered on the BUY LD spread bets if they fall far short. 45 LD seats would be a headache - 35 seats a disaster.

Next planned article on September 8. Keep the comments coming in - they are the best part of the site and there are enough issues above to start many different threads.

Mike Smithson

The White House race gets dirtier and dirtier

The Democratic ticket is holding firm in the polls with a clear lead in most of them after a sustained and well funded attack in an attempt to undermine John Kerry’s status as a Vietnam war hero.

A big New York Times investigation has sought to establish the truth behind the “Swift Boat Vertans for Truth”, who has been funding the TV commercials and features some remarkable revelations. It states:-

Records show that the group received the bulk of its initial financing from two men with ties to the president and his family - one a longtime political associate of Mr. Rove’s, the other a trustee of the foundation for Mr. Bush’s father’s presidential library. A Texas publicist who once helped prepare Mr. Bush’s father for his debate when he was running for vice president provided them with strategic advice. And the group’s television commercial was produced by the same team that made the devastating ad mocking Michael S. Dukakis in an oversized tank helmet when he and Mr. Bush’s father faced off in the 1988 presidential election.

A particularly revealing aspect is that several of those veterans featured attacking Kerry had lavished praise on him, some as recently as last year.

The issue could well re-bound on George Bush as he prepares for the Republican Convention in New York at the end of the month.

The Iowa Electronic Exchange, where “political futures” such as who will win are traded like a stock has seen the Kerry price ahead of Bush a number of time in the past few days. This market is on who wins most votes not who will be the next President so last time the Al Gore backers would have won.

The best UK bookmaker prices are 17/20 on both Bush and Kerry. You can get slightly better than evens on Kerry on the Betfair exchange market.

We stick with our call, first made in May, that Kerry will win. A President who has been so low in the popularity ratings in an election year has never gone on to win a second term. If you can get better than evens on Kerry take it.

Mike Smithson