Labour poll decline hits Hartlepool markets
September 26th, 2004
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Populus - Labour in third place nationally
A series of bad national opinion surveys for Labour in the Sunday papers have transformed the betting for Thursday’s by-election in Hartlepool to elect a replacement for Peter Mandelson who has quit Westminster to become a Euro Commissioner.
Yesterday morning we were suggesting that the 4/1 then available on the Lib Dems on the betting exchanges was “tempting”. As of the time of posting that price has tightened to 8/5. So yesterday a winning bet would have produced a return of £200 - now that’s down to £80. The Labour price, meanwhile, has gone from about 1/5 to 2/5. NOTE: On the exchanges we quote the last price that has been matched - not the prices that are being offered.
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Two of of this morning’s polls have the Tories in the lead and one of them has Labour in third place for the first time in twenty years.
CON 32%: LIBD 29%: LAB 28% Populus - News of the World
CON 33%: LAB 32%: LIBD 25% Mori - Observer
A third poll by a pollster new to us, Communicate Research, is in the Indy on Sunday. Interviewing took place the day before and the day of Kennedy’s speech and so was earlier than the other two. The shares were:-
CON 30%, LAB 32%, LD 27%
The Lib Dems usually enjoy a poll boost after their conference and in the September YouGov and ICM polls a few days ago, before Bournemouth could have its full impact, Labour was on 36% in each with the Tories on 34% and 32% and the Lib Dems at 21% and 22%.
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UK politics at the moment is characterised by the Tories remaining static and a block of 6-7% that’s very volatile and oscillates between the LDs and Labour. This group will decide the election.
An indication of the scale of the challenge facing the opposition parties is that if the country voted according to the Populus Poll Labour would be third in terms of vote share but, according to the swing calculators, top on seats. site produces the following breakdown:-
LAB 276: CON 259: LIB 80 seats
But beware claculations like this or the one in today’s Observer. They assume a uniform national swing and could be upset by an unwind of some of the tactical voting that helped Tony Blair to his landlsides in 1997 and 2001. Shrewd gamblers who understand this are going ot make a lot of money at the General Election.
The General Election markets on which party gets most seats remain unchanged with Labour 1/4 favourite. We expect this to be eased in the coming days.
We also expect moves against Labour on the spread betting markets where the current prices are:-
LAB 342-350 seats: CON 212-220: LIBD 67-71
We have been saying for months that Labour is over-priced and the Lib Dems under-priced.
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Given these polls why not lay the date of the next election for next May… last night Apr-Jun 05 traded at
0.27-1 on Betfair. Surely if the polls carry on like this people are going to start rethinking that assumption.
I admit it starts to run into the Euro vote which would be super unwise but Blair has been flailing a lot lately.
The other bet that might be worth a shout is laying Blair to be the leader at the GE…
I’m sorry but why have you not reported the YouGov and ICM polls putting Labour at 36%?
In all honesty I find it very very unlikely that Labour have slumped to third the simple fact is that nothing has happened to spark any such poll collapse, while in April and May the violence in Iraq and the Fall out from the case for War explained the slump in support for the government down to around 34% how is it that after three months of improving poll figures and a fairly robust performance of the government they have crashed down eight points? It simply makes no sense.
If Tony Blair had suddenly been implicated personally in some kind of Watergate esqu scandal these numbers might make sense but they don’t, because nothing of that kind has happened.
The Mori poll seems more credible but still seems to have both the conservative and labour very low compared to other polls and the LibDem much higher, this could be a result of the LibDem “Conference Bounce” I expect. But even compared against Mori the YouGov poll appears to be a rouge one… it simply doesn’t seem to be supported by any other indicators.
Ben - that\’s a fair point and I have amended the article accordingly to reflect the polls earlier in the week.
As to what has happened - the Lib Dems have enjoyed more lime-light than they usually do. It\’s the same in a General Election campaign when usually the LDs make substantial progress.
Jon - I agree with both your betting suggestions and the prices are likely to move this week. These polls are not a good curtain-raiser for Tony Blair at the conference and could reinforce the Brown leadership moves.
Thanks Mike… I was not attacking what You’d done I was just wondering if you where aware of this month’s ICM and YouGov Polls… the picture certainly looks confused and the Populous Poll just seems bizarre when compared with the others and when set against recent events.
As for a Brown leadership bid (in all but name
) , as at the 2003 conference I think its unlikely Brown has no wish to inherited a party either in a minority in the House of Commons or with a slender majority and will no doubt continue to quietly rebrand himself as more of an “all rounder” (Witness his interview in the Guardian Magazine on Saturday)… while working for a solid Labour Majority the same goes for the Blairites, I’m sure the likes of Nick Brown and some of the more zealous in the Blair camp will mutter but both Brown and Blair and every other Labour MP seems to be realising that a row now would be a disaster. So I doubt there will be a concealed leadership bid by Brown as there was last year.
What Blair needs from next week is…
1.) A solid win in Hartlepool.
2.) A Conference Speech that is not his usual visionary, messianic fair and speaks to that broad concern in “middle england” that “Tony Blair has forgotten us” or “Labour have let us down”.
…Neither of these things by them selves will “turn back the clock” but both together will stop the bleeding, the LibDem by-election bandwagon that began in Brent and was slowed in Brum HH would be brought to a screeching halt. At the same time the only way Blair can shore up his posting and end the middle class disillusionment with Labour will be to be a little more accommodating in his key-note speech. The sense seems to be that Hartlepool should produce a narrow Labour win and Blair is being “convinced” to get together a more “bread and butter” speech similar to that he delivered at the TUC…
We will see where we are after the Conference, but it would be a mistake to say the polls are uniformly bad, populous looks like a rouge while all the others show is a general lack of movement (with ICM and YouGov, Labour and the Conservatives are basically static), The Indy on Sunday also has a poll by “IoS” (?) which has Labour on 32%, Conservatives at 30% and the LD’s at 27%.
Ben - I\’d been meaning to feature ICM & YouGov earlier in the week but Hartlepool, new betting markets, and the LD conference sort of got in the way.
As for, what you term, \”the LibDem by-election bandwagon that began in Brent and was slowed in Brum HH\” doesn\’t square with the figures. The swing against Labour there was bigger than the others - it was just that RESPECT getting some anti-war votes saved Labour.
Mike, I\’m aware that the swing in Brum HH was bigger than that in Leicester (in fact “Nokia” won on polling day by 70 votes!) but remember that the turnout in Brum was much smaller than that in Leicester, scarily that means that Leicester could have been much worse for Labour on a lower turnout (!)
But that is beside the point, Labour still hung on in Brum HH and that denied the LD\’s the “sweep” they really desired… a solid Labour win in Hartlepool (say 800-1,000 Lab majority)will reinforce the impression that the LDs having been stalled in Brum where halted in Hartlepool, After Leicester and Brum in July the narrative adopted by the press was that the LDs had just come sort despite still inflicting a serious blow on Labour if the LDs lose in Hartlepool the likely narrative will be that the LDs where stalled in Brum HH and then stopped in Hartlepool and as long as that is what the press run with its likely that will be all that matters, though if Labour win I have no doubt that it will be put down to “Labour dirty tricks” by the LDs… but I refuse to get drawn into a partisan row.
Agreed - this site works because we don\’t have too many partisan rows.
On the betting front I\’m now a winner on Hartlepool whatever happens - I\’m sure you would like to know that! I laid Labour at 1.24 and 1.25 and I\’ve now off-set my bet by backing Labour at 1.43 (Betting Exchange terminology odds). alas I usually get myself into these situations then get tempted by some crazy bet and throw it all away!!
Ben, I\’m finding it a little difficult to get my head around the idea that having a Labour majority of 14,500 slashed to 800-1000 votes can be described as a \’solid\’ Labour victory!
It´s not too difficult, Dean.
When they lost half the seats they were defending last July, the Labour Party machine described it as a \”draw\”……..
And the Westminster village bought this hook line and sinker. A result is that people cannot believe how bad it is for Labour & why these polls are such a shock.
In the 1999 Leeds Central by-election Labour won by a little over 2,000 votes and Hillary Benn then won his seat by around 19,000 at the 2001 contest… and yet that performance was still seen as “solid”. In any by-election turn-out is traditionally low and even in “safe seats” majorities are generally low. As for upsets in both Brum Strechford in 1978 (?) and Bermondsey (1982) the Conservatives and Liberals respectively overturned huge Labour majorities to win by around 9,000 votes… but that is by the by. The fact is that winning by around 1,000 votes in a hotly contested by-election is a good showing for a Party that has been in office for seven years, Leicester was a defeat and Brum HH was a draw, a win in Hartlepool by anything more than 500 votes is a “solid” performance.
You sound like the Tories during the mid-nineties Ben, but I suppose that’s part of the New Labour project.
I seem to remember that turnout in Leeds Central was around the 20% mark, something close to a record low. In that context a 2,000 majority could be described as reasonably solid. A majority of less than half that in a seat with a bigger electorate and with turnout probably around double that in Leeds Central would not be a \’solid\’ result.
Many of us are involved in politics and putting a spin on election results goes with the territory, but I would hope that we can be a bit more realistic about our interpretation of results on this site.
well said Dean and Paul.
This site is called politicalBETTING.com not politicalSPIN.com or politicalSHYSTERS.com
It started out being about finding some value and taking a few quid off those friendly bookies and that is what I visit it for.
Here\’s my contribution. The LDs traded in the 2.5 - 3.0 range last night and best price with the regular bookies was 7/4.
IG run an offshoot called binarybet and last night I noticed the quote LD 20 LAB 80
…Still available this morning but after I lumped on they might have readjusted.
Prices with this outfit are well worth monitoring.
I notice the LibDems gone bid at 68/72…
Listen to the quote I have linked and then ask yourself if Jody Dunn is really in with a chance with her norf London posh accent slagging off Hartlepool - a proud and self contained northern town.
Increasingly it is obvious that this site has an agenda - to talk down Labour and talk up the Lib Dems. But you are backing a loser if you bet on Jody Dunn in Hartlepool.
Labour\’s only worry here (and yes, I am in Hartlepool) is turnout. If the turnout is good Labour will cruise it.
Even Rennard says Labour will poll 40% - that\’s 3.5% more than in Hodge Hill and 5% more than the Lib Dems polled in Leicester.
the agenda is to find value \’notjody\’
Until you put some numbers -i.e. betting tissue - on your diatribe you will be put down as just another spinner/ramper.
Just how confident are you that I am backing a loser at 4/1. I am able to back Labour for considerably better odds than 1/4…Why aren\’t you snapping up all that free money.
Thanks John. I make no secret that I am a Lib Dem and would love to see Jody win - but on the site I aim to make objective betting judgements.
In the three completed elections on which there have been betting markets since the site began we have called for the Lib Dems just once - at Leicester South. We are not calling for the Lib Dems in Hartlepool but we montitor the markets and what\’s happening all the time and if we see value bets we say so.
My personal betting position on Hartlepool is that I win money whichever party tops the poll having laid Labour and bet on Labour but at better prices. I only wish they were all like that!
I also think that the effect of Labour\’s campaign approach in Hartlepool has been to make the LDs the challenger. Labour have made it into a two-horse race which is pretty dumb because the more split the non-Labour vote the better. Usually the LDs have to invest so much campaigning effort getting themselves perceived as the challenger. That\’s not been necessary here - Fraser Kemp has done it for them.
NotJody - look back at previous features on this site and you\’ll see that I am as fierce in my criticism of the Lib Dems - when I think they\’ve got their electoral strategy wrong - as I am of other parties.
You can still get 7-4 on the Lib Dems in Hartlepool at Paddy Power.
Rennard\’s comments (and the opinion polls) must mean that he is increasingly confident of victory. The tetchiness of \’Not Jody\’ also suggests that.
Rennard rarely gets it wrong - does anyone remember the interview he did on the Andrew Neil/Portillo/Abbot programme before Leicester and Brum? He said he expected both results to be close with the Lib Dems \’on the right side of close\’ in Leicester with a recount in HH? This was poo-pooed by Portillo particularly - but w spot on. If Rennard says it\’s neck and neck with four days to go - then it is.
The reliable information I had was that the Lib Dems were about 1,000 behind about a week out. From past experience I would expect the momentum to carry them home from that position. The embarrassing performance of the Labour candidate in the recent debate on the local hospital has not helped their campaign.
I think one thing that the Labour campaign has struggled to deal with - note the personal attack by notjody - is that Jody Dunn is proving a popular candidate in Hartlepool. I think she will actually prove the to be the difference between winning and losing for the Lib Dems.
How many postal votes are there in Hartlepool? Since the Euro elections in the North-East were all-postal, has this increased the popularity of postal votes for this election? If so, there is a bank of votes already cast which no last-week momentum is going to swing.
Just going back to the national poll numbers.
While (despite my hopes) the NoW populus poll may well be a bit of a rogue, there\’s no guarantee of that. It\’s worthwhile noting that the MORI poll fieldwork was actually conducted BEFORE the LibDem conference,(Sept 10th-14th). Given that it had the LibDems at 25% and that MORI consistently finds a lower LD rating than the other polls this might indicate that the LibDems have actually managed to pass the 25% marker.
Does anyone know the fieldwork dates for the recent ICM & YouGov polls which had the LibDems in the low 20\’s?
YouGov was taken between the 21st and 23rd September - bang in the middle of the conference. ICM\’s was between September 17th and 19th, before conference.
For the Euro elections on June 10 YouGov had 13% and Populus \”16-18\” for the LDs in their final polls. It was actually 14.9%. So YouGov does tend to be on the low side and Populus on the high.
Like most Lib Dems I fervently believe that Populus is the most accurate pollster
Thanks Mike,
There seems to be a new Westminster village consensus emerging…I just watched an interesting discussion between David Aronovitch & Michael Gove on BBC24 - both agreed that they expected to see a major tactical vote unwind at the next election.
Also they gave predictions on Hartlepool - Aronovitch said if nothing \”extraordinary\” happens at Labour conference then Labour will squeak it & Gove, who as well as being a pundit for the Times is now a candidate in a safe Tory seat said the LibDems would take the seat.
& talking of pollsters:if the margin is within 1,000 either way - as some are suggesting - it won\’t bode well for NOP\’s early return to political surveys. Their 33% poll lead for Labour less than two weeks ago will look pretty sick.
..A Westminster village consensus that I agree with!! I can\’t cope with that.
For the first time, I\’m starting to believe Labour could lose Hartlepool, in particular if the conference goes badly in some aspects or if demonstations at the conference get the headlines. Then, God forbid, there\’s the hostage situation, which I feel is impacting on Labour support.
What is clear from these polls and elections earlier this year, is that the Labour vote has gone soft, nearly as soft as it was in the Michael Foot days.
Voters want to give Blair a good kicking.
The Lib Dems have now surged almost entirely at Labour\’s expense, confirmed by three different polls. This could mean any serious Iraq developments, and the Iraq situation is blowing up right now, or protests in Brighton could give an extra swing towards the Lib Dems at Hartlepool and it seems very likely this will be Blair\’s worst conference since he became Labour leader.
By the way, the Mori poll has Labour at its lowest level in any other Mori poll since 1987.
Gooing back to - Was HH a good or bad result for Labour - I think Ben is correct: Labour held on so it was good. Where Labour have been mistaken is to believe their own spin. During HH I thought, and indeed recorded on the site, how effective I thought the campaign strategy of finding a chink in the LD candidate and throwing everything at it had been. I was very surprised that in these circumstances the result was that close.
On reflection I think that Labour have misled themselves into thinking that this is the way to beat LDs and this will show in the result. I still think that Thursday will be very close and a lot depends on what impression about Labour comes out of the conference.
That might be the dumbest decision of all - holding it in conference week when all is not well with the party.
I thought holding it in conference week was odd too… won\’t a lot of Labour activists be in Brighton?
On a related subject if Jody Dunn is elected she won\’t exactly be the first posh barrister MP in the NE. Isn\’t
there some bloke called Blair who\’s been there for years?
I think most people agree that if Labour hold on to a substantial majority at the general election it will be because people think they are \’better\’ than the Tories. I find it difficult to believe that anyone could have the confidence to back them at very short odds in contests which are effectively a \’referendum\’ on the Government\’s record, with no negative sideeffects for voting against (like producing a Tory Government).
Re Mikes comment at 26 - I think it is perfectly possible that NOP\’s poll was entirely accurate (well within the margin of error at least). It was carried out two weeks ago and by-elections particularly are about momentum - Labour were alsways going to go down from the 50% or so the NOP poll had them at - what was important from the Lib Dem point of view was that the poll established Jody Dunn as the only challenger - hence a few days from pollling day the LIb Dems talking about it being \’neck and neck\’.
The question is, is anyone plkanning to do another Hartlepool poll (and if so when?)
Back to the original theme of this thread -I am surprised that the Lib Dem Hartlepool odds have not shortened more. In fact there seems very little trading -there is only just over £300 on betfair to back the Lib dems at any price (£95 at 2.92 or better) and just over £400 to lay Labour - William Hill seem to have stopped taking bets. Anything above evens would look pretty good value in a two horse race with the original favourite (Labour) clearly carrying too much weight for the conditions and with an apprentice on board!! My weeks housekeeping has already gone on the Lib Dems at 3.0 or better
I don\’t think this market is moving in a way that suggests that those in the know believe the LDs have much chance. What
Chris Rennard is saying seems very downbeat to me. However there is still plenty of chance of something coming out of the Labour
conference which the LibDems can use to their advantage - that\’s the main risk to Labour for me.
\”Something coming out of the Labour conference\”: perhaps Mandelson will do another \”fighter not a quitter\” speech…
Don\’t misunderstand the what Chirs rennard isn saying, the LibDem high command are claim that elections they are fighting seriously are neck & neck - this both establishes them as the only alternative tothe incumbent and fights against complacency on their own side. However My understanding is that they genuinely belive that the result is neck & neck. Not quite a good as Leicester S or Brent E was at this stage, when they privately thought that barring a last minute switch they would just snatch it but certainly in recount territory. This race is still a toss-up.
They always say that though… I think the 40% comment was most revealing. If Labour get 40% they are just about certain to win. Very hard to
see how the also-rans will get less than 20%, particularly given the degree of EU-scepticism in Hartlepool.
Canvass returns are very very positive for the Lib Dems BUT (big BUT) not nearly as much of the constiuency has been canvassed as at Leic S at this stage - I canvassed in both and Hartlepool much more Lib Dem than Leic!
Posting 22 - Good point Book Value, although as I said during the Leicester South by-election the Lib Dems are not as well organised as the other parties when it comes to postal votes anyway.
Bullseye is right. The unvarnished information from Hartlepool is that this one really is going to go down right to the wire.
Thanks to everyone for all these valuable observations. The Betfair Labour price is easing a little and the Lib Dem price has tightened a notch. I don\’t see a lot of confident activist money going on from both parties. My instinct is still for Labour - in Lecester South at this stage there was a huge amount going on the LD on the final Monday. That\’s not happening here yet.
Keep watching.
Turnout will decide Hartlepool. This ought to be an easy win for Labour, but they seem to have chosen the wrong candidate. He just seems to be a Labour yes man who will sit on the backbenches and say nothing (perhaps wisely as he is a poor speaker). I think he will do it - narrowly - and that Hartlepool will repent at leisure. But turnout could still surprise us - tactical voters may yet prove the most likely to go to the polls.
Following on from point 41, somebody remarked in a previous posting that there were few usseful betting shops in Hartlepool - so perhaps the party workers (of both leading parties) are finding it harder to place bets than they did in Leicester.
There\’s a campaign issue John - \”more bookies for Hartlepool\”
\’You can still get 7-4 on the Lib Dems in Hartlepool at Paddy Power\’
Hills go 7/2 and the 4s is still available elsewhere.
I would surmise that recent market movements on Betfair are down to the activities of arbers.
presumably activists are able to place bets by phone…
What is an arber John?
Arbitrage - making a riskless profit… buying something cheaply and simultaneously selling it to someone else
dearer. What makes banks and bookmakers their money…
So arbers mean people who practice arbitrage, thanks.
Ah but, No 38, you have to listen to what Chris Rennard does NOT tell you ! He may well have said that his canvassers were recording 40% for Labour which, as you say, should see them home and dry ! However, what he did not divulge was how much of that 40% was described as \”Soft Labour\” support. It could be that a third of that 40% either does not bother to vote or changes sides in the last few days. I read somewhee that 7% of the voters in Hartlepool are volatile.
It will be for the voters of Hartlepool to decide whether they just want one more as lobby fodder or if they want someone who can shock some sense into Blair and could even sause ripples across the pond. Jody\’s victory could be a double whammy that gets rid of both Bush and Blair. My money is on Jody because Rennard forgot to tell you how apathetic and soft the Labour support is. I would be worried if he had accepted NOP\’s 52% figure for Labour. The shrewd voters of Hartlepool have shown before that they like to cause an upset and don\’t like to be taken for granted.
Jody should do it with 900 or more to spare. Great for Hartlepool and a nightmare for Blair.
car finance Heh. How it goes? Buy it all. ASAP. Last discount in your live (AAAAA!!!!!). Take a rest.
Infant girls spring clothes….
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