Hartlepool betting moves back to Labour
September 27th, 2004
There’s been a big move back to Labour in the Hartlepool markets with William Hill coming back in at a price of 1/6. The Lib Dems are at 7/2.
The Betfair betting exchange has responded in the same fashion although the current Labour price is slightly better value at about 1/4. It’s a fairly light market with just £1,600 being matched between 9am and 6pm. It could be that just one or two punters are forcing the price down and there’s little doubt that William Hill’s 1/6 on Labour has had an impact.
The General Election spread markets, meanwhile, have responded to yesterday’s opinion poll reversals for Labour - one of which had them in third place.
LAB 337-345 (-3): CON 212-220 (+2): LIBD 68-72 (+1)
IG Index have marked Labour down even lower and the sell price is just 9 seats above the party losing its overall majority. It’s spreads are:-
LAB 333-341: CON 212-220: LIBD 68-72
From the mid-points it seems that IG are operating on a smaller new House of Commons than SportingIndex. If you want to sell Labour go with SportingIndex - if you want to buy go with IG.
We suggest waiting until after the Hartlepool result.
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It\’s the 7/2 LDs that moved the Betfair market Mike.
Someone wanted to lay 4.0 at a time when 1.37 was available on Labour. That was overbroke so the price was no way going to hold up.
In answer to a query on the other thread you are an ARBER if you back at 7/2 in one place and lay 4.0 elsewhere.
Actually very little money going anywhere - Is it possible that noone knows what is going on?
I\’d say that\’s right Icarus. Most of the moves on BF have been driven by what\’s available with the bookies.
Once the Labour lemmings were aware that 4/7 was available the 1.25 on BF didn\’t look such a smart bet.
I posted that 4/1 LDs was available over the weekend - people seemed happy to take 3.0 and below for a while but Hills 7/2 soon shifted the market. Total matched is 19k i.e. less than 10k bet and a good portion of that could be arbs with the bookies.
Weak market to sum up…no real confidence anywhere.
I\’ve backed & laid several hundred pounds on Labour which is all included in that £19,000 so it\’s not just arbers - but traders.
As you observe - hardly anybody is betting on this by-election. There\’s no confidence anywhere so you can\’t read much into the betting.
I think I understand the principle of arbitrage - but the practice is a bot confusing - could we have an idiot\’s guide please?
On a completely different issue - we should have some info regarding the postal votes by now - there used to be an official count on the Wednesday - but with all the new rules about postal voting I thought there was an early postal vote count - is this the case in Hartlepool, if not will we have to wait until Wednesday?
indeed - you could probably divide the matched total by 4 to get some idea of the size of the \’real\’ bets.
e.g. for 1000 matched there might be a 250 bet at 1.25 by Labour lemming with honest Mike.
honest Mike has 5 50s at 1.4 with 5 filthy arbers who have each bet the 4/7 with good old Paddy.
…so Labour win…the lemmings are happy and Mike and the arbers have had a nice drink out of the game.
Of course if the LDs somehow fluke it the Labour lemmings are a bit sick and everyone else has a laugh.
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