Where are Labour’s envelope stuffers?
September 28th, 2004
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Is there betting value on the Lib Dems?
As the Hartepool campaign goes into its final day the big question for political gamblers is whether there is any value in the prices available on the Lib Dems or is the by-election the certainty that the current Labour odds seem to indicate?
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All betting is about value. Are the chances of something happening better than the odds available - if they are then you have a value bet.
Prices have moved away from Labour during the day and to the Lib Dems. This was because the 1/6 Labour price that William quoted when it re-opened Hartlepool was not sustainable and prices had to be adjusted. This has been reflected in the Betfair betting exchange.
Both William Hill and Betfair have 11/4 against the Lib Dems and 1/4 and 1/3 on Labour respectively.
We think that Labour will probably just do it but that there’s enough of a chance for the Lib Dems to pull off a victory to make the 11/4 a value bet. The 1/3 on Labour is over-priced even though it has moved out and should be avoided until it’s at about 1/2.
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What’s convinced us that there is value in the Lib Dem price is the remarkable revelation in the Guardian that Labour have had to pay people to stuff envelopes.
This might sound trivial but if they can’t find activists to do this most humdrum of jobs how are they going to get people out to the polling stations? Of course there’s been a huge amount of paper going out but getting envelope stuffing volunteers should be an easy task. Finding canvassers to knock on doors or make unsolicitated phone calls is much harder.
That poll two weeks ago putting Labour 33% ahead continues to affect the betting and the word emanating from LD party officials is that they predict that they are very close but they fear a “near miss”. There’s a huge mountain for the Lib Dems to climb.
But the lack of envelope stuffers and the soft betting price makes us look at the Labour campaign in a different light. The LDs are worth the 11/4. BACK.
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IG have adjusted slightly - quote LDS 22 TO BUY - LAB 78 TO SELL
This equates to 7/2 in old money
Once I had figured out that £1 a point on IG was a £20 bet on the Lib Dems then I think I am OK (intial £20 was clearly a mistake!) and looking forward to a result at 8 to 1. Gave this site as the reason for finding IG - but now cannot log in - help desk dealing with it - New computer at home with XP service pack 2 on it seems to be the problem - But cannot find any prices on the IG web site. Am I doing something wrong?
There should be a tab saying LIVE PRICES. Click and a whole list comes up. Scroll down to Binary Politics. Then choose .UK then Hartlepool.
I find find it slow & frustrating.
yes it\’s slow.
When you log in a new interface appears with account and betting info.
You are able to customise \’my prices\’ so as to access the ones you involved with directly.
I\’d rather spend a minute or two waiting for a site to load to obtain 7/2 than get 11/4 straight away.
i guess it\’s just a question of your priorities…
How do you read this from Lord R. Never one to over promise - close sounds to me confident
In case you missed it, there was some superb coverage for our campaign in today\’s Guardian. It describes how Labour\’s campaign is falling apart.
Labour members are already plotting to dump their candidate !
They been calling him \”a typical puppet\”, his performance \”a disaster\” and even \”praying he would lose\”.
You can read the full story at:
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/byelections/story/0,11043,1314344,00.html
But don\’t forget. The press coverage of the result if we win will be much better than even that !
If you can make it by any means, please do come and help on the ground in these precious last few hours.
It\’s extremely close.
Jody needs every extra bit of help the party can give to ensure she wins.
Best wishes,
Chris
Chief Executive
Liberal Democrats
maybe you should have made it 20 per point Icarus.
I read the entire piece by Decca A - one of her better efforts.
It will be fun to watch the damage limitation efforts if Labour do manage to lose this.
Panic, angst, fear and loathing will run like wildfire through the ranks.
Can\’t wait…
Yes a superb campaign says the Lib Dem. Superb in not mentioning they want to ditch the pound and compulsory sex education for seven year olds, condoms handed out like dolly mixtures for 11 year olds, not to mention their softness on crime and drugs and a 50p top rate tax that goes futher than any other 50p.
This is why Lib Dems have a chance of winning, because they are so good at cashing in on a protest vote, without talking about their policies that very few decent people would support. We should never underestimate the campaigning methods used by Lib Dems.
Sorry if this sounds political, but this an argument to show the Lib Dems can win and to balance a plea on this site for a political party to help in a their election campaign. Let\’s keep this about betting and not hijacked by one political party.
Quite right printz. This is a very informative and valuable website but it can so often be ruined by the self congratulatory Lib Dem propaganda. The Lib Dems may have more envelope stuffers but what do they actually offer the voters of Hartlepool beyond completely spurious remarks about the hospital. Labour and the Conservatives have both denied any threat to the hospital so precisely where does this \’threat\’ come from?
I agree Printz. The Liberal Democrat hegemony throughout the media is truly disgusting. Lol.
To comment on only one of Mr(?) Printz\’s points - if we were in the Euro then interest rates would be 2% lower - my mortgage would be affordable and more importantly we would be able to afford to invest in new plant and equipment. The cost of financing £1m investment in the UK is £20k pa more than our competitors - my company has just made 75 redundant and are now buying things in China.
I suggest Chamberlain reads today\’s Guardian which exposes Labour\’s lies about the hospital in Hartlepool. At a recent public meeting the Labour candidate claimed to have signed a petition opposing the closer of the hospital. Although he has subsequently been proved to have lied about this, why would he even want to claim that he had signed the petition if there wasn\’t a threat to the hospital?
Chamberlain asks: \’Labour and the Conservatives have both denied any threat to the hospital so precisely where does this ‘threat’ come from?\’.
It comes from the agreed need (amongst professionals who understand the issues) to move from DGH\’s that serve c. 200k people to ones that serve 500K, in order to provide 24 hr specialist cover. This will happen regardless of ths piffling by-election, tho\’ not instantly. Let us not discuss the issues on this site, because we will simply reveal our ignorance.
Let us instead discuss the electorate\’s perception of the issues: the hospital is under threat and the Labour candidate:
is doing sweet fa about it/has saved it.
Take yr choice and stake yr money.
With all due respect Icarus, but if our currency was surrendered to Eurocrats in Frankfurt and Brussels, who we could never deselect in any election, we would be giving up our right as a nation to control our own economy.
So yes true to the name of Liberal Democrats, that is being very liberal with our democracy.
If UK joined, a straightjacket would be imposed by politicians in another country, on UK government spending and borrowing, as well as an interest rate that doesn\’t suit all nations at the same time, and we would be likely to find that unemployment would go through the roof, as Germany has found.
We would be one step nearer to the Undemocratic Federal States of Europe that the Lib Dems don\’t talk about.
They don\’t even talk about what would be the biggest constitutional change ever since the UK came into existance, in their \”ten reasons to vote Lib Dem.\”
The only reason that interest rates are lower in the Eurozone, is because that\’s the only thing that is keeping it afloat, effectively a way of devaluing it.
When resentment builds up within countries where the citizens find they have little say in their own economy, in particulary in times of recession or high unemployment, a swing to nationalist extreme political parties and very ugly direct action will follow.
The Euro is a utopian dream that is totally impractical in the mid to long term, just as the ERM was.
The vast majority of citizens whose countries have joined the Euro have never voted for it. But that doesn\’t matter to a political party that has \”democrat\” in its title.
When opponents attack the Lib Dems it is commonly a sign they are feeling threatened.
I know this is not about betting but I can\’t resist. I am a LibDem but to say interest rates would be 2% lower
or that manufacturing jobs would not be bleeding is not only misleading it is completely wrong. The fact that many
LibDems have not been strong enough on economics is one of the party\’s weaknesses - something which the Labour
party had to sort out before they could make themselves electable.
If short term rates were 2% lower what we would in fact have is inflation… particularly in the housing market
so this would offer no net benefit. This is why the BoE have set rates at 4.75% - because it is in Britain\’s interest
to do so - a fact that no sensible politician questions. If you look at longer term interest rates (and if we joined
the Euro most people would have to have fixed rate mortgages as is the case in Europe) 30 year rates are actually
LOWER in the UK than Euroland (yes really) because the markets believe that pretty much everything about the
UK\’s macro framework is better than most Eurozone countries.
If we joined the Euro (which LibDems have always promised a referendum on) our exchange rate would be forever
fixed at a rate which most manufacturers consider to be uncompetitive - and the job haemorrhage would if anything
intensify. If fixed exchange rates were such a good idea you have to ask yourself why exactly the Eurozone employment
sitution has so much worse than in the UK for the last 7 years, unlike most of the previous 50?
Sorry that was not intended to be anon…
seems as if the fear and loathing has kicked off already.
To the likes of PRINTZ and CHAMBERLAIN I have 3 questions
1. What is the probability that Labour win on Thursday
2. What price are you prepared to back
3. How much are you putting on
As I wrote before, this site is about betting.
I don\’t come here for the party political broadcasts.
More fear and loathing?Dirty tricks reach new low as fire brigade and police called to Lib Dem HQ
10.30.24pm BST (GMT +0100) Tue 28th Sep 2004
The dirty tricks that have marred the campaign to become the next Member of Parliament for Hartlepool reached a new low when the police and fire brigade had to be called in the early hours of the morning.
Expanding polystyrene was sprayed down the length of the front doors and the double doors then chained shut making exit from inside impossible - although staff were still working at the time (approximately 3am).
Agent Richard Pinnock said: \”This was an extremely stupid and dangerous stunt. I still had staff working in the back offices when this took place. Had there been a serious incident they would not have been able to made an exit via the front doors.
\”We are grateful for the police and fire brigade but regret that they have to be called out because of stupidity and vandalism like this. Obviously this attack was politically motivated - I just hope that this is the last of these silly stunts.
\”The people of Hartlepool are bored and fed up with this sort of thing - people want an honest debate about the issues.\”
Although I don\’t believe the Labour party would do something like this I would have thought a lot of voters
would imagine that they did - particularly given their previous antics… you\’re almost persuading me to put
some money on the LD (so far I have only sold them to hedge my personal happiness).
Jon, I agree precisely with your Euro interest rates comments.
John, At the moment I would say it was too close to call, but I would give the Labour a slight edge on winning, because, although Tory and UKIP votes may collapse, I think overall the opposition vote will still be too split. However, if Lib Dems had a realist Euro policy, they would have walked it by making capital of Mandelson joining the Euro gravy train.
I\’m sure they could have made far more of Mandelson\’s Euro departure regardless of their Euro policies. After all voters elect their MPs for a full term to serve in Westminster. The history of by-elections is that when people up sticks to join the \’Brussels gravy train\’ it almost always results in massive swings against that party - Birmingham Stechford being the prime example.
I guess with it being the focus of UKIP\’s campaign the Lib Dem reckoning was they could attack on a different front - but as you say if they fail to win it will be seen as a missed opportunity.
… but Hodge Hill (MP departing to gravy train) had much the same swing from Labour as Leicester S (deceased MP). Wouldn\’t a by-election in any Labour seat at the time of Stechford have gone the same way?
I would agree with those above who put out a plea not to turn this site into a party political debating chamber. I enjoy that sort of thing as much as the next member of a political party, but this is not the appropriate forum.
Fair point book value - but I\’m sure that \’unneccesaary\’ by-elections ie elevation to the Lords or Europe have resulted in bigger than trend swings - I\’m thinking Ribble Valley, Penrith as well the Brum ones. Hodge Hill had a significantly bigger swing than Leicester - could it be the Euro effect or Labour\’s negative campaign?
I\’m sure someone has done the research into the comparative swings between when the sitting MP dies or is \’elevated\’ in some way.
Interesting comment Dan - I think the swing at Birmingham HH (gravy train)was slightly bigger than at Leicester (MP died so not his fault!)- just checked swing away from Labour was -27.4 at HH and -25.2 in Leic. S But the swing to Lib Dems was +26.4 at HH against +17.7 but Gen election Lib vote at leic S was 17.1 (Hodge Hill 8.1)Gen Election Lib vote in Hartlepool was 15.0.
Dan, I stand corrected on the swings, you are right that Hodge Hill had a significantly larger swing than Leicester S.
The research would be interesting.
At this stage before the July 15 by-elections 75% of all money matched in both markets had been on the Lib Dems. For Hartlepool 74% has been for or against Labour. Make what you will of that.
Also the Lib dems went into polling day as favoutites for both seats on the Betfair market - 2/5 in Leicester and 9/10 in Hodge Hill.
When I said the Lib Dems could make a deal about Mandelson going on the gravy train, I was thinking along the lines that they would would do well to campaign to clean up Europe, make it more accountable, criticise the excesses.
They could (and should) do all that no matter what their stance is on the Euro. Yes it isn\’t a strong vote winner, but it could save them from losing votes by many voters who think they are too keen on the EU, which is generally regarded as out of touch, corrupt, unaccountable and too interfering.
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