Hartlepool - it’s going to rain tomorrow
September 29th, 2004
The weather forecast for Hartlepool tomorrow is for rain although it should clear by the evening. Quite what effect, if any, this will have on turnout or voting we do not know although the received wisdom is that it does not help Labour.
A bigger effect on turnout, compared with the July contests, might be that it goes dark earlier in late September. Sunset in Hartlepool tomorrow is at 6.42 pm and it’s always harder for the parties to get voters out in the dark than on a light summer evening.
The betting meanwhile has moved slightly away from the Lib Dems overnight but there has been very little activity. It’s 1/4 on Labour and 11/4 Lib Dem with William Hill and 1/3 and 3/1 on the Betfair betting exchange.
The big question will be what happens to the Tory vote. Will there be a tactical switch to the LDs to get Labour out; will Michael Howard’s party lose votes to UKIP instead of the LDs which will help Labour; or will it stay relatively intact?
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In the last three by-elections the Lib Dems have found it hard to squeeze the Tory share which has seen drop of only 2-2.5%. If that’s the pattern in Hartlepool it will be good news for Tony Blair.
Another factor will be the impact of Tony Blair’s speech in Brighton yesterday. Whatever there is still a lot to play for. Our view remains - we think that Labour will just do it but we think that the chances of the Lib Dems taking the seat are better than the current odds so its worth a bet.
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To win the Lib Dems need to keep the total vote for all the other parties below 20%. Given that the Tories alone polled 21% last time that is a tall order. However, having campaigned for the Lib Dems in Brent East, Leicester South and Hartlepool I would say that the Tory vote is much softer in Hartlepool and that they will lose votes both to UKIP and the Lib Dems. Whether it will be enough we shall have to wait and see.
It was Ben\’s view that rain in the late afternoon and evening cost Labour victory in Leicester South, although I would dispute this, so it will be interesting to see what possible impact rain has on the result this time. Will the anti-Labour vote be more determined to go to the polls than Labour\’s supporters.
In addition, in the event of a low turnout, the influence of the postal votes which Book Value highlighted will be all the greater. Hopefully we shall have some idea of how they have gone later in the day.
I think it is an urban myth that rain hurts Labour - it\’s an excuse for poor polling day organisation and unethusiastic voters.
I suspect at by-elections rain tends to hurt the government (of whatever colour) - the protest vote is more motivated and willing to turn out whatever. OTOH, the postal votes \”freeze\” a pattern of support from a couple of weeks ago when Labour was ahead. The lower the turnout on the day, the more important these retro votes will be.
In a similar race in any other constituency, if I was a Labour campaign manager I would get leaflets out attacking the LDs on Europe to try to throw their votes over to the Tories and UKIP. (This would probably sacrifice a few Labour votes as well, but not as many). However, in a by-election to replace a Labour euro-cheerleader who has been appointed to the EU Commission, there isn\’t much mileage in that.
Dan, I share your view, but I remain to be persuaded. Has any research been done on why voters didn\’t go out to the polls after an election? And, if so, was weather ever cited as the reason by any of the sample? Finally, did this this lead to differential turnout between voters of different parties?
the Betfair market continues to shadow the bookies Hills and IG.
no one is getting knocked back and perhaps thanks to this site they are no longer taking \’mug\’ prices.
Only when the bookIes shut up shop will there be clear indications from the market IMO.
1/2 is my best estimate of the \’real\’ Labour price. I\’d like to know more about the postal votes as well.
Re Tory vote - in Leicester south they tried hard, very hard - saw them delivering a leaflet at 6.30am on polling day -They bussed all (except I think 3)MPs in. And they actually thought they had done well!! In Hartlepool they have only just selected the candidate and seem to be going through the motions - Ive only seen 2 posters in whole costituency. One lovely LOL (little old lady) apologised that she might have to vote Tory because her late huspand had been a tory councillor for 20 years - but she was talking it over with her daughter and might just vote LD to keep Labour out. The bigger worry is UKIP but think Labour have turned the whole show into a two horse race - which should help direct the anti Labour/Anti Wright vote to Jody Dunn.
There should be a first count of the postal votes today - is there anyone here who can report back?
IG /Binarybet starting to move now 19 - 24 -I am almost in the money - but perhaps it is the double your profit that has brought them the business
The Evening Standard has a big splash about a leaked document which they claim proves Blair was lying
when he said they were not already preparing for war about 9m before it happened. If this proves to be
true it could have a big effect on some of the GE markets… perhaps Hartlepool also. If this document is genuine
it would seem to prove he lied to the House….?
At this stage before the July 15 by-elections 75% of all money matched in both markets had been on the Lib Dems. For Hartlepool 74% has been for or against Labour. Make what you will of that.
Also the Lib dems went into polling day as favoutites for both seats on the Betfair market - 2/5 in Leicester and 9/10 in Hodge Hill.
Mike - can you remember what the betting turnover on Betfair was on Hodge Hill ans Leicester?
maybe IG have got it about right 76 - 24
I planned to take some profits at 65 - 35 if there was a move.
For the first time for a while the best prices for both parties are on Betfair.
Normal service has been resumed.
My recall is that each market for July 15 was about £18,000. It\’s much much bigger in Hartlepool.
There was a huge amount of turnover on the day and in Leicester South someone really scared me by placing a £100 bet on the Tories 90 minutes AFTER the polls had closed. I bet the layer was even more scared. On reflectionI reckon that someone clicked on the wrong party!
Just to say that today is the busiest ever on politicalbetting.com and we are getting at least twice as much traffic as before July 15. In three hours we have had 1,000 unique visitors. If somebody comes through many times in a 24 period it counts as one visitor. We are also the 75,517th most visited site on the entire worldwide web today. Not bad for an amateur blog that\’s done as a hobby.
Thanks to everyone for their support.
Congratulations Mike - find it very interesting
Re betting turnover £31,000 is less than H Hill and Leic together - probably in line as we only have one contest this time.
Thanks Mike for a forum where the mouths and wallets of so many can be unleashed!
But come clean… has your \”amateur\” blog boosted your Betfair turnover?
In Todays FT - Labour obviously think it is in the bag -we will see!
Gloves off as Labour fights to keep Hartlepool
By Jean Eaglesham
Published: September 29 2004 03:00 | Last updated: September 29 2004 03:00
Labour has insisted that Tony Blair will avoid a humiliating defeat in tomorrow\’s Hartlepool by-election, fighting off a strong Liberal Democrat challenge in a supposedly rock-solid seat the party has held since 1964.
\”We\’re very, very confident,\” a Labour official said. \”We\’ve no sense of any slippage in the Labour vote - the only issue for us is making sure of a good turnout on the day.\”
In the 2001 general election only 56.4 per cent of the town\’s eligible voters went to the polls. Labour has fought an intensive campaign to try to avoid a repetition of its defeats in the recent Leicester South and Brent East by-elections, where the Lib Dems overturned big Labour majorities. It has selected a local candidate - Iain Wright - to avoid the jibes levelled at Peter Mandelson, the outgoing MP, that the town was a launchpad for ambitious London politicians.
Labour has also levelled a barrage of leaflets and press releases at the Lib Dems\’ \”soft on yobs, soft on drugs\” policies and candidate. Jody Dunn, the barrister selected by the party, has been pilloried for defending a heroin addict and for not living in Hartlepool. She accuses Labour of fighting dirty.
A campaign weblog kept by Ms Dunn has been mined assiduously for gaffes by Labour, and to good effect - her online aside that everyone she met in the town was \”either drunk, flanked by an angry dog or undressed\” has been recycled endlessly during a stream of ministerial visits to the north-east town.
Labour even set up a mobile booth during town centre campaigning so the public could hear these comments on CD, and broadcast them from the campaign bus yesterday. Campaign manager Fraser Kemp, MP for Houghton and Washington East, was unrepentant. \”That\’s politics,\” he said.
Charles Kennedy, the Lib Dem leader, yesterday accused Labour of mounting a \”highly misleading, negative and personally abusive\”, campaign which showed the party was \”running scared\”. He insisted his party was \”very close\” to overturning Labour\’s 14,571 majority - predicting a photofinish.
The Lib Dems said their canvassing put them ahead of Labour in seven wards in the constituency, behind Labour in eight wards and neck-and-neck in two wards.
The intensity of the campaigning over the past nine weeks appears to be trying voters\’ patience. While the 14-horse race is being watched closely nationally as a pre-election barometer, there is every sign the local electors cannot wait to get it over with. Many on the streets of Hartlepool yesterday ignored Mr Wright\’s campaign bus festooned with balloons, despite the blaring sounds of Fatboy Slim.
Paul Napier, Hartlepool Mail editor, said: \”I don\’t think I\’m going to be the only person in this town happy when it\’s Friday morning and we can get back to real life. This has been a quite nasty campaign . . . we\’ve seen week after week of name-calling, mainly by Labour.\”
The battle between Labour and the Lib Dems, generally regarded as the two big contenders, has been intensely local and dispiriting. As an observer in the United Kingdom Independence party camp said: \”They have had a pissing contest against the wall about who is the most local.\”
There was little prospect of respite for the town\’s voters last night, as Mr Wright headed off to watch Hartlepool United and Ms Dunn added more doors to the 20,000 she and the 200-strong Lib Dem campaign team have already knocked on.
The Tories have suffered from a much lower profile, fighting a sober battle for votes with the UKIP. In 2001, the Conservatives were second with a 20.9 per cent share against Labour\’s 59.1 per cent and the Lib Dems\’ 15 per cent. This time, however, their challenge is to avoid coming fourth behind the UKIP, and avert a humiliating start to their party conference next week.
The party has stepped up its campaigning in the past couple of weeks. But it is definitely out of the main race, and is already trying to mitigate the political damage, claiming \”If we do do badly [in Hartlepool], it\’s because people are voting tactically.\”
The stakes are also high for Labour. The loss of Hartlepool would be a significant setback for Mr Blair, sending a clear warning ahead of the next general election.
The seat is the kind of typically tribal Labour, largely working class, town that the government should be able to defend with little effort. It lacks the Muslim anti-war vote which helped to propel the Lib Dems to victory in Leicester South. The campaign has been fought on issues such as the local hospital and the crime rate rather than on Iraq - another factor that would make a loss such an ominous signal for Mr Blair.
Not convinced the FT article means Labour thinks it\’s in the bag - they have to say they are going to win comfortably - if their soft supporters think there\’s a \’no-cost\’ chance (ie keeps Labour in government) of giving Blair a bloody nose - they are more likely to vote Lib Dem. If Labour are going to win comfortably - what\’s the point of going out to vote against them?
It\’s a fair article. There is undoubtably a strong Labour vote of the type
\’I\’ve always been Labour…you\’re a local lad…you got my vote.\’
However it is clear that
1. The candidate is very poor and many Labour activists view him in a negative light.
2. The Labour campaign has been a disgrace and may give rise to abstentions and protest votes.
3. The timing could hardly be worse with 2 more items of bad news re Iraq.
This by-election campaign has hardly been a triumph for local democracy and neither of the main candidates have shown great positive qualities so no reason to expect a high turnout - it sounds as if most of Hartlepool is thoroughly sick and tired of the whole circus.
I think if Labour were not very confident they would be backing the LD on the exchange by now… this is not
happening …
Jon - you are right. The betting is very telling. Labour believe they are going to walk it and there\’s no confidence in the LD camp. It is now down to turn-out & whether Tories vote tactically.
My sense is that Labour are going to find getting supporters out harder than they think and the current position of Blair might see more CON switching than we have seen.
that\’s a fair point Jon but it seems they are unsure either way.
Hills have shut up shop but IG remain at 76 - 24 which is slightly better than the 4.0 available on BF
To back Labour you are looking at 19 - 81 which is several ticks worse than the Betfair offers which aren\’t being grabbed so nobody believes that Labour are past the post already.
Watch the overnight moves after IG close up. The market turns inrunning at 7 am.
What to thank all the Lib Dem puffers on this site for keeping the Labour odds high enough on this steal. Put my money on as soon as the odds got a little better today. Been out in Rift House and the voters *hate* Jody Dunn because of what she said about the town.
best of luck to you notjody.
You obviously don\’t like a serious bet as there\’s still over 600 quid waitig to be snapped up at the rewarding odds of 1/4
I have backed Labour at 4/7 - what price did you get - and how much are you gonna win.
NotJody - good to see you\’ve got the betting habit. You\’ll be able to make even more by putting your winnings on Tony Blair\’s mate, George, in the White House race. I won on him in 2000, I wish I could turn the clock back and return my winnings
Mike,
Do you think the Lib Dems can pull off a Greenwich or Liverpool Edge Hill and persuade Tories to vote tactically in droves? In an odd way, that type of result is probably easier for CCO to spin than one that just sees the Tory vote drop slightly.
IG have now closed so Betfair is no longer coupled to any alternative odds makers.
Closing prices
LAB 19 - 81…1.23 approx
LDS 76 - 24…4.2 ,,
I had the option of closing for a 1 point loss but I let it ride as I am already hedged on Labour.
Sean, I really don\’t know. If it does happen then the lack of serious Tory campaign, compared with Leicester, should make it easier to put a spin on. The trouble is that the LDs have had problems making real headway with Tories in recent elections.
If I was a Tory in Hartlepool I think I would respond to the Lab campaign by voting tactically. The Fraser Kemp campaign also makes it easier for the Tories to explain a poor result.l.
I don\’t really understand what appears to be the Tory attitude to this election. After Brent East (which indirectly contributed to IDS going) the high command clearly decided \”never again\” - to the extent that they put a huge effort into Leicester/HH. They realised that whilst they were unlikely to win, it was important to send out a message to their supporters that they were trying hard and actually they were rewarded with a not disastrous result (these things are relative). At the very least they got the opportunity to try out various tactics, which could give them valuable lessons for the GE.
They now seem to have reverted back to Brent East thinking - \”we\’re not going to win (or even come second) so the entire purpose of our campaign will be to prepare the excuses for our defeat\” ie \”we didn\’t try very hard\”. It\’s pretty pathetic, and it is an attitude which should be treated with contempt (and I expect will be by the Hartlepool voters).
Not Jody - you\’re clearly very confident about a Labour win - finishing canvassing before 8.10pm. The postal votes were opened today - as you\’re supposedly in Hartlepool - care to share the \’scores on the doors\’ with us?
not a great deal holding up the Labour price although there is still some interest in the LDS
Remaining near the IG close
Lab 1.2
LDs 4.5
230 BAR
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