Three out of five polls give it to Kerry
October 27th, 2004
Three of the latest five national opinion polls on the White House race have Kerry in the lead according to the new round-up just out. The polls are:
Kerry 49 Bush 47 - DCorps
Kerry 46 Bush 49 - Zogby
Kerry 49 Bush 48 - ABC
Kerry 50 Bush 48 - Washington Post
Kerry 43 Bush 49 - TIPP
The latest electoral vote calculations based on state polls have it Kerry 247 to Bush 286. The Slate.com score-chart has it Bush 276 Kerry 262. Almost all of the surveys involved took place earlier than the national polls.
Betting has also been heavy for Kerry on the US focused betting exchange, Tradesports, where it’s now Bush 55.5 - Kerry 44.5. More money has been going on there being a prolonged legal wrangle before the result is known. It’s now about 7/2 compared with 4/1 three days ago.
The best UK prices are 13/10 on Kerry and 4/6 on Bush.
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Democracy Corps v good firm (run by James Carville) slight Dem bias… but very good.
That\’s what I like to hear Ben and Kerry is where I\’ve put my money. I\’m starting to get quite confident.
Yesterday the odds search engine on politicalbetting was finding a place where I could bet on Kerry winning in Arkansas for around 6/1 oes anyone have any idea what has happened to it and if there is anywhere else I can bet on Kerry winning Arkansas.
Dave - binarybet.com or Tradesports I believe. Not checked for a while though.
NB. ABC and Washington Post are really one poll (same data) not two.
Thanks for earlier link to Real Clear Politics - now seems more useful, since Electoral-vote methodology (takes latest poll regardless of other factors) looks weak now it\’s raining polls (still v. good site). Slate is good on comments about quality, trends etc…but does it miss one or two things?
RCP is Republican biased (it predicted a Bush win over Gore in 2000 by 10 points and over 400 Electoral Votes) but even so it currently gives Kerry a better chance of winning the election than Bush. What surprises me is that nobody is questioning two recent Hawaii polls that put Bush ahead despite Gore winning Hawaii by almost 20% four years ago. If Bush really was about to win Hawaii, this election wouldn\’t even be close. I suspect they are just bad polls by non-reputable pollsters (nobody is seriously polling Hawaii because it is solid Democrat) trying to get in the news.
On the other hand, the point was made recently (I can\’t remember where) that superimposed in Hawaii\’s general Democrat leanings is a tendency to prefer incumbents. The writer (again can\’t remember who) ascribed this to a fear among Hawaiians (many of whom are of Japanese descent) of appearing unpatriotic in the wake of the Second World War. This seemed a bit overplayed when I first read it, but interesting that for whatever reason Hawaii seems more congenial to Bush now than it did in 2000.
Hawaii has voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in every election since its statehood (1959), except
for the two 49-state landslides in 1972 and 1984. I don\’t see any trends that suggest that this will not continue.
Today\’s Zogby poll has Kerry closing to 48-47 down but they are going on a three day rolling basis (i.e. today\’s poll covers yesterday and the previous two days, tomorrow\’s will cover today, yesterday and the day before and so on). But the blurb on the Zogby website says Kerry is 5 points up on yesterday\’s figures taken alone. It could be 1. A statistical blip; 2. A short-term response to the missing explosives row; or 3. A Kelly Holmes moment. Take your pick. Just thought I\’d draw attention to the underlying stuff though.
James,
Zogby and Gallup should really not be taken any notice of, Gallup are usually way out while Zogby is just bizarre.
Mason-Dixon (for state by state polls), DCorps, Harris and Rasmussen are probably the best polls to keep an eye on… that said they all have the race as very close, also keep an eye on Fox News’ Poll strangely enough the FOX/WSJ polls are usually quite accurate in both 2000 and 2002 they where very good, in stark contrast I might add to the polls that networks like CBS, ABC and MSNBC/Newsweek spew up.
I\’m not quite sure how RCP could be considered bias either way given that it takes an average of the last 6 or so polls for both the popular and state by state polls. Surely this averaging irons out bias in organisations such as Zogby (pro-kerry) and Gallup (pro-Bush)?
Ted, Zogby isn\’t pro-Kerry he\’s all over the shop with his predictions and always has been at the same time I\’d have argued that the CNN/Gallup Polls are usally very biast towards Kerry both polls however are usally junk IMHO.
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