« Five reasons why we think Kerry will win
Are Kerry supporters like UK Tories - too embarrassed to admit it? »
h1

How will the Osama video affect the election?

October 30th, 2004

    Another video drives the markets

Gamblers on both sides of the Atlantic have reacted in a fairly cool manner to the video tape of Osama Bin Laden that was released last night.

There were sharp moves to Bush as people took the view that this would remind electors of the ever-present terrorist threat. Then there has been a gradual easing back after some commentators observed that Osama’s “return” was another reminder of a failure of the Bush administration to capture Osama lending weight to the charge that by going into Iraq the President has had “his eye off the ball” of the main threat.

    There is no poll evidence yet to test public reaction and the key issue is how Bush and Kerry play it this weekend. Our view is that it will just reinforce opinion on either side.

The off-shore Tradesports exchange initially went to Bush 55 Kerry 45 but that has now come back quite a lot and is now trading at not much more than before the Osama video. The Iowa Electronic Exchange market has had a bigger move from Kerry but, as the Economist points out this week, investors on this market can only risk relatively small sums and so the price might not be quite as sensitive.

The volatile UK Betfair exchange moved sharply to Bush and is now coming back a bit.

Betting round up - 5.30 am BST Saturday
Bush 52.5 Kerry 47.5Iowa Political Futures Market
Bush 53.5 Kerry 46.5 Tradesports exchange
Bush 1.81 Kerry 2.18 Betfair exchange
Bush 8/11Kerry 23/20 UK bookmaker best price



MessageSpace Advertising

28 comments to “How will the Osama video affect the election?”

  1. I think the video plays to Bush\’s strengths - Kerry should be fighting on the economy, Bush\’s weak point not security where the polls show him to be stronger despite Kerry deriding his handling of Iraq.

         by Guido Fawkes October 30th, 2004 at 10:32 am

  2. I agree with Mike - it will just reinforce opinions. The race is still about getting out your own vote and keeping the other side\’s voters in.

    The Democrats really need to be ready for Republican tactics to suppress the vote in Democratic areas. For every Republican \”challenger\” disputing voter credentials in polling stations, there needs to be a Democratic \”advocate\” defending voters and, most importantly, witnessing the Republican tactics.

    I think both candidates are going to claim victory at some point over the next month.

         by book value October 30th, 2004 at 11:17 am

  3. If you really think Kerry is in with a shout, why on betfair has £3.1m gone on Bush and only £0.8m on Kerry?

         by Curious October 31st, 2004 at 9:29 am

  4. Curious - because people like me have been laying Bush rather than backing Kerry because the market is more liquid. While £3.1m has been backed on Bush the same amount has been laid by peeople who take the opposite view.

         by Mike Smithson October 31st, 2004 at 10:06 am

  5. Yes - in this situation you generally get narrower spreads on the favourite just because of the market rules (the odds go in lumps of 0.01 between 1 and 2, then lumps of 0.02 above 2). Though funnily enough most time I bet on this market I found better odds backing Kerry than laying Bush, and laying Kerry than backing Bush. I must go in at atypical times!

         by book value October 31st, 2004 at 10:21 am

  6. Re: post 2, finally Michael Moore does something I approve of!
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/uselections2004/story/0,13918,1340556,00.html

         by book value November 2nd, 2004 at 11:42 am

  7. Voyeur web…

    Voyeur web Voyeur web Voyeur web Voyeur web Voyeur web Voyeur web Voyeur web xjwnxrfww…

         by Voyeur web November 29th, 2006 at 11:16 am

  8. wcwqhdcvi…

    hrzxdlvbk qoznzpoiuvo osbizwzrwq dwhpftek …

         by nsqaleumu November 30th, 2006 at 10:40 pm