Markets edge further to Labour
November 23rd, 2004
After three polls showing big Labour leads the betting markets have now caught up a little with the number of predicted Labour seats at the election increasing and the Tory numbers declining.
At IG the spreads are LAB 345-353: CON 194-202: LD 70-74. Sportingindex, meanwhile have LAB 344-352: CON 202-210: LD 70-74.. These are big differences between the two firms with IG attracting more Labour money and SI, seemingly, getting more pro-Tory bets.
What could affect the prices is the timing of the polls. The November YouGov survey is due out in the next few days and Populus should be reporting its December figures a week or so afterwards. What is significant is that these two pollsters are likely to show a smaller Labour position than those that report in the middle of the month - ICM, NOP and Communicate - and we expect a small Tory price recovery.
In spite of the price movements both main spread markets still have Labour totals below the 346-354 that they were on at the end of July.
For those not used to this sort of betting think of the spreads as a share price. If you think Labour will do better than the 352 seats that SI is quoting then you BUY at, say, £10 a seat. If they ended up with 372 seats your winnings would be twenty times your stake. If Labour got 325 seats then your losses would be 352-325=27 times your £10 stake - £270.
Our current CALL is don’t bet. The polls are all over the places; there are doubts about whether the votes/seat equation will work as it did last time and Labour’s margin is only just larger than the 6.6% average overstatement of 2001.
For the LDs our call is stay out as well. On June 16 2004 our CALL was BUY the Lib Dems when the spread was 54-58. On October 5 2004 we said SELL when the spread was 72-77 and take what for many was a very considerable profit. That was the highest price the LDs reached and our sell call was at the top of the market.
Tory backers should keep well away. There’s been no glimmer of good news in weeks and the sentiment is very much against them. If the polls and Baxter seat predictor are correct then a seat total of 160-170 seats might be the result. Wait until we get closer to the election when some value bets and better information might emerge.
Other political betting markets - click here.
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I can\’t get onto Spreadfair at the moment - can anyone remember their prices?
Also, last time I looked on there I couldn\’t find out what the margin requirement was for general election bets; does anyone know that? - thanks
Looks like the markets are following the recent opinion polls….personally I would be very wary about betting on anything at this time of year……
Off topic……….I was talking to the Chair of an English Primary Care Trust last night. He told me they were heading for a deficit had have been they must balance their books. They were told not to worry about the balancing act….eg reducing services because \”everybody is in the same boat\” so there will be substantial reduction in health services provided in much of the country ……one wonders what effect this would have two months before an election
You should remember that PCT Chair\’s are often local politicians and therefore are not neutral observers. I, as an admitted Labour supporter, know people in senior positions within PCT\’s who are planning to expand services. Although there are particular areas of budget pressure - such as whether GP\’s can prescribe cheeper drugs with the same efficacy as more expensive brands. However these rarely relate to the overall pot or public facing service provision.
Fair comment Steve the person I spoke to is certainly no neutral but his comments are genuine enough…….perhaps there will be regional variance……….
O/T - Ben might be interested to see this (as it refers to his favourite MP :)): http://www.libdems.org.uk/index.cfm/page.homepage/section.home/article.7818
Steve T - PLEASE don\’t wind Ben up
No don\’t thats my job
Ah, the traditional English sport of Ben-baiting. No doubt New Labour will ban it!
Given that Brian Eno is backing the impeachment campaign and Brian Ferry\’s son has been up to a few naughties…..I understand that emergency legislation will be introduced to ban sales of Roxy Music albums and all solo albums made by former memebrs. Anyone found in possesion of said items is to be detained without trial and forced to listen to \”Things can only get better\” until they repeat all the words in reverse order demand to be given an identity card and voluteer to serve anti-social behaviour orders on every passing teenager……
This will lead to a rise in Labour support in polls….so buy now….
Banning Roxy Music gets my vote!
My good Lib Dem mate, Steve Lawson, reckons that David Blunkett is not far away from introducing the new offence of \”Internet Poisoning\” - that is causing something to be transmitted on the world-wide web that is to the detriment of New Labour.
The scary thing is that the more you think about it - he could be right
Well, quite, why should a website be any more immune than a BBC broadcast? :-s
Ban Roxy Music? No, ban Westlife.
Steve, that\’s hardly fair
In a way I like to think that my mentioning of Gill\’s silence had a hand in him being convinced to open his mouth
It\’s a fairly boilerplate maiden speech really… still, what are Queen\’s Speeches for?
How many MPs have mentioned Mens Health Magazine in their maiden speech! How long had he taken to come up with what felt like thousands of statistics.
\”It was the Ben wot done it!\”
Yorick punted?wheels!present aboveground from?April