politicalbetting.com

But the Tories are still well above 40%

As expected Gordon Brown personally and Labour have received a poll boost in the wake of the global financial crisis. The figures from the latest survey in the Sunday Times with comparisons on the last poll from the firm are: CON 43%(-2): LAB 33%(+2): LD14%(-1)

As ever we have the usual problem of the paper comparing not with the last published poll from the firm but from the last survey that it commissioned - as though that mattered more than seeing the direct trend from the firm itself.

The broad movement, however, is good for the government though they need that Tory share to get consistently below 40% before they can harbour any thoughts about David Cameron being stopped from getting a majority

The recent polling in the marginals with the suggestion that the Tories are doing disproportionately better in seats they are trying to win means that the idea of a 10% comfort zone might be misplaced. We’ve also seen other polling that shows that the Lib Dems can get higher shares when voters are told about the specific circumstances in their seat.

Given the massive exposure and the general view that Brown has been performing to his strengths the outcome is not unexpected. In this context it is hard for the opposition parties to say anything that will merit more than the most minimal coverage.

There are the usual non-voting intention questions with poll showing that Brown-Darling lead Cameron-Osborne by 33% to 27% on who is trusted most to handle the crisis. But to other questions 53% of those interviewed thought that the government was “too slow in acting” and while only 29% thought Brown was handling things well, against 37% who thought think he was handling things badly.

As Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report notes when asked which team they think will improve their standard of living, people also continue to favour Cameron and Osborne over Brown and Darling by 34% to 25%.

YouGov also asked about Peter Mandelson’s return. According to the paper by 41% to 17% people said it was a bad move, with 50% saying they still link him to spin and sleaze.

Mike Smithson

Which events could turn the tide this late in the game?

On Thursday night, I recorded another 10-minute slot for ‘Inside City Hall’ on NY1 (the Time Warner Cable news channel for New York). To the astonishment of the host, Dominic Carter, I mentioned an InTrade market that assesses the likelihood of an Israeli or US attack on Iran. Though I don’t play this market myself (I actually find it in rather poor taste), I suggested that such a significant event might be what it would take to push the economic crisis off the front pages, and make military and foreign affairs the centre-point of the final few weeks of campaigning. Such an occurrance would, I suggested, play into the hands of John McCain.

The more I have dwelt on this issue, the more convinced I am that it will take a significant event for the Republican candidate to overcome such a substantial Obama lead. Indeed, only yesterday Politico.com carried a story which cited a Democratic pollster and strategist as saying that only a terrorist attack could revive McCain’s chances.

Whilst this is a little crass, there is some truth in the underlying claim. John McCain needs a significant ‘event’ to regain the momentum and the front pages of the papers. Beyond a terrorist attack, or an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, I cannot imagine that anything other than a major personal scandal could bring this election back to level-pegging in the betting markets. Maybe PB.com’s punters are more imaginative than I am, but there seem to me to be very few scenarios that plausibly suggest that John McCain could win this Presidential election.

To compound his worries, the Troopergate report was published yesterday - it found indications of abuse of power, but no illegal activity. Also, Harry Brighouse at Crooked Timber is running with rumours along a theme that has been oft-mentioned on PB.com - that the RNC might give up on McCain (given his polling defecit) and focus instead on trying to save some of its Congressmen and US Senators from the Democratic tide.

Unless there is a major gaffe by Obama-Biden, possibly during the final Presidential Debate, there seems little that will stop the Democratic Party contender, once priced at 50/1, from becoming the next President of the United States.

Any suggestions?

Morus

click on the panel to watch

Will voters look at McCain differently after standing up to the crowd?

Just watch the video above and you’ll see what I believe is a key moment of the campaign and one that will raise respect for John McCain in many quarters irrespective of whether he wins or loses. There’s a good account of it here, as well, on the Time magazine blog.

Facing a crowd who were overwhelming hostile to the black Senator from Illinois McCain says, “I respect Sen. Obama and his accomplishments.” People booed at the mention of his name. McCain, visibly angry, stopped them: “I want EVERYONE to be respectful, and lets make sure we are.”

I think the real John McCain is coming out here and he doesn’t want history to judge his campaign as being racist or based on hate.

It also says, I believe, that some of the nastier attacks that many feared might characterise the closing phase probably will not happen.

It will be interesting to see how he interacts with his opponent in the final debate.

Full range of live White House Race betting markets.

Mike Smithson

Should he avoid appearing as though he is enjoying the crisis?

After all he has gone through in the past twelve months you can perhaps forgive Brown for feeling a sense of relief that he has now an issue to deal with that apparently plays to his strengths.

But is he looking too pleased with himself? He appears to be enjoying the crisis just a little bit too much. Isn’t there a danger that his demeanour might be seen as not being appropriate for the times the country is going through and the very real worries that millions of people have?

Ben Brogan in his Mail blog writes:“..After today one of his mates might like to start whispering “momento mori” in his ear whenever he starts looking like he’s enjoying himself. The Tories certainly hope the voters will notice that the architect of the “Age of Irresponsibility” is rubbing his hands with a bit too much relish. Two things now threaten Mr Brown: recession and reshuffle. Economic pain will shape the views of voters in ways we cannot yet fully know. And there is still much to play out from the changes of last week, which seem a lifetime ago. The economic crisis has masked the fact that this Government now looks like the Sopranos. Bad blood is inevitable.”

Whether this will affect voters’ view of Labour we shall have to wait and see. One little finding in this week’s Populus poll just out today ought to worry him.

Nearly two thirds of those questioned felt it “was time for change” and of even more concern 47% of Labour voters from 2005 shared this view.

Mike Smithson