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The Politicalbetting Top Ten - November 28 2004

November 28th, 2004

    UK General Election back as most popular market

With two new polls both giving totally different pictures it’s not a surprise that the UK General Election is back at the top of the politicalbetting top 10 - which is based on “click-throughs” to online bookmakers from the site.

    If you are thinking of betting in the UK markets it’s worth recalling that at the 2001 General Election every single poll from every single pollster over-estimated Labour.

Our safety first strategy is to base your bets on whatever is the current lowest Labour poll share and then knock one or two points off.

1. General Election Winning Party Labour still 1/7 best with the conventional bookies but has moved out from 1.18 to 1.21 (better than 1/5) on Betfair. Is there just a sense of weakness? Maybe - but there is no value here either way.
2. Republican Candidate 2008 Quite a bit of interest with money going on Rudolph Guiliani - former New York mayor now at 11/4. It’s a long way to go and the evangelical right will want to ensure that they continue to have their person in the White House.
3. Winning Party 2008 Given it’s evens on both and you have to wait nearly four years to pick up your winnings we are amazed that people are betting. Remember to factor in the cost of locking up the money.
4. Conservative Seats at General Election. The 10/11 on the Tories getting less than 220 seems a popular bet. We are not so sure because the polls are giving conflicting messages.
5. US President 2008 Hilary Clinton is still the 5/1 favourite. No comment.
6.General Election Date. Given the Sun has now said that its 05/05/05 why not get on now while there’s value at 1/5? One thing’s for sure - Tony Blair’s not going to upset the Sun’s owner Rupert Murdoch.
7. Tony Blair’s departure date 2006 is the 6/4 favourite. We are not so certain.
8 Labour Party Seats A seat total of 360+ is the 11/10 favourite. Much less risky than a spread bet but much reduced returns.
9. Liberal Democrats seats A total of 61+ remains the 1/3 favourite. Probably good value.
10 Democratic Candidate 2008 Hilary Clinton is 5/4 favourite. Not good value given the time your money is locked up



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13 comments to “The Politicalbetting Top Ten - November 28 2004”

  1. For anyone considering betting on Hillary Clinton to gain the Democratic presidential nomination, I would suggest a simpler and more direct approach: Take some money, put it into a large sack, and then burn it.

         by Curtis November 29th, 2004 at 6:11 am

  2. Are we going to get a Betfair market so we can (ahem) lay Hillary?

         by book value November 29th, 2004 at 8:11 am

  3. The trouble about such a market BV is that you have to lock up money for so long. If you laid Hilary at 5/1 to be President Betfair would want 5 times the stake from you to cover the winnings. So for a £100 bet you would have to put up £500 and not see anything until November 2008.

         by Mike Smithson November 29th, 2004 at 8:31 am

  4. True, but at least on Betfair you can close out and get the original capital back before the market expires. I would not bet with a conventional bookie for something 5 years out.

         by book value November 29th, 2004 at 8:38 am

  5. Any bookies making a price on Blunkett\’s chances?

         by Guido Fawkes November 29th, 2004 at 5:13 pm

  6. Right under \”White Christmas in Sydney\” ;-)

    Seriously, I haven\’t seen any.

         by book value November 29th, 2004 at 5:16 pm

  7. Billy Hill have a next Labour leader bet D Blunkett 21/1

    I\’ll pass on that one

         by Guido Fawkes November 29th, 2004 at 5:40 pm

  8. Some Money could be made on Alan Johnson for Labour Leader, i doubt he will get the leadership but the odds will tighten on both him and Hain me thinks.

         by Ben November 30th, 2004 at 1:07 pm

  9. Unfortunately that market is not on Betfair (well, Labour Leader at next GE is, Next Leader isn\’t) - so difficult to make money by trading moves.

         by book value November 30th, 2004 at 6:37 pm

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