Our General Election betting strategy
December 14th, 2004
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Punters on Labour should bet now - others should wait
Whether or not you buy our thinking that the coming General Election is much more open than received opinion would have it you can still, we hope, optimise your gambling by following our betting theory.
This is that the market - which ultimately is determined by the actions of all punters - becomes less sophisticated and less knowledgeable the closer we get to polling day as more punters come in and more money is piled on. And as political expertise of the punter pool dillutes the less sceptical it will be of opinion polls and other signs of what is actually happening. Thus the uniform national swing seat predictors, which we expect many parts of the media to be using, will be believed much more by those gambling on the outcome.
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Thus we expect the general market move to Labour to certainly hold firm and most likely to be magnified the closer we get to the actual day.
Profitable betting is more than predicting the outcome - it’s about getting the best return, and that comes down to timing.
So at the moment the current spread range of LAB 345-353: CON 200-208 and LD 71-75 Commons seats is broadly in the middle of what knowledgeable opinion of those who comment on this site suggest. By election day, if the polls stay as they are, we would expect to see odds and spread prices much closer to the Martin Baxter uniform national swing projection than to our formula.
So if you think that Labour is going get the majority of 60 that the current BUY price suggests then put your money on now. If you are less certain about Labour’s chances you will probably get better value by waiting. You will also reduce some of the risk.
The latest Labour seat market prices are:-
360 + 6/5
0 - 335 6/4
352 - 359 6/1
344 - 351 13/2
336 - 343 15/2
Mike Smithson
“….a gambler, not a prophet” (Nick Cohen - Observer)
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Very tangential to the topic, but some speculation about the election moving to June.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labour/story/0,9061,1373210,00.html
The idea of dishing the Liberals by diluting the student vote is interesting…
The Student vote is grossly overestimated, generally because polls have shown most students claim to be LibDems, in reality most students are lazy. Within the NUS the LibDems are the least organised and least focused (get it
its only 9.30 but I’m already on top form) around 10-15% of students vote in places like Cambridge and Oxford it might be higher but I doubt it would exceed 20% and for the most part those who vote are fairly evenly split between the main partys. I’m still expecting May because leaving the local government elections to stand alone would be silly IMHO and probably courting disaster added to this the sudent vote is going to effect sweet f.a
they will have zero effect in this election as in both Oxford and Cambridge the Labour seats’ majorities are very large, that said the article point about Cardiff is fair (all factors will come into play in a seat with only a 600 vote majority), but as whole this just seems to be a little title tattle.
Nice theory Mike, but the gamblers were virtually the only people to call the last election perfectly. I think the reality is that closer to an election the spreads tighten and the markets become more ‘perfect’ resulting in less value.
Margaret Thatcher in 1983 and 1987 waited for the local elections to take place before deciding to call an election.
But I can’t see that as being in Labour’s interest. When the County Councils were last contested, Labour had a lead of about 7% (slightly lower than in the general election). Current local election results suggest a Tory lead of 3% or so, which would translate into big headline losses for Labour, and the loss of counties such as Northamptonshire and Staffordshire. That’s not in the government’s interest.
Barring some major problem, it has to be May.
Ben….interesting but what are you basing your views on…..in 97 trunout amongst students was 50% plus in Leicester…last time the students had mostly gone home by the time of the election.
Also the LDs would expect to perform better if it was not on the same day as the locals…although this might hit the tories a bit….what do you reckon Sean?
From Sean’s previous posts, it sounds like the Tories are doing quite a bit of pavement politics - in London at least - so wouldn’t mind it being combined with local elections. I would expect both opposition parties to have ramped up council campaigning in their target seats - and of course Labour should have tried, but has probably suffered a drain of long-term local activists.
I’d go with Sean. I don’t believe this June thing at all. Even Labourites would presumably accept they are going to lose seats in local elections - why have the headlines set you up for a GE campaign? Not to mention the undoubted displeasure of many to be called on to vote TWICE in a whole year!!
I can only imagine June if they delay the local elections, otherwise the practical problems become huge (you would need to call the election around the start of May).
Also, Labour delayed this year’s locals to co-incide with the Euros.
How are the timings of locals set? Is is separate secondary legislation each year?
There is pleanty of time to call a general election after the locals (which always take place on first thursday of May unless there is special legislation to change it). I can´t really see Labour taking the risk of bad headlines - but I´m hoping they do!
In fact if a GE is annonced the weekend after locals (as thathcher did in 80s I think) this will swamp any headlines from the local elections so not a big factor. But some local campaigners will be able to point to locals as a reason for supporting them in GE (we won in May help us win in June).
The dispersion of the student vote will definitely help Labour.
What times we live in when fewer students voting is seen as a bonus for Labour. I cannot recall any other election in the past 40 years when you would have thought that.
Tony Blair likes have several elections on the same day and I can’t see him risking a poorish result in the county council elections a few weeks ahead of the General.
Mark i would like to see evidence that it was 50%+ as what I’m look at right now suggests it was much lower and nationally it was below 20% if the LibDems want to put faith in the student vote, go ahead… but i wouldn’t.
Ben even at 20% turnout the student vote is a threat to Labour, if you combine it with the large GMW (incidentally universities are large employers and many lecturers are in this category) and Muslim votes in many university constituencies. To suggest the student vote is evenly split is slightly misleading all reports I have heard is that the Lib Dems poll at around the 50% mark amongst students.
There has been a general consensus that GMW voters and Muslim voters would cause disproportionate falls in safe seats, on the other hand ‘tactical unwind’ calls for disproportionate falls in marginal seats. The Labour vote cannot fall disproportionately everywhere, I am coming round to the idea that GMW and Muslim voters are going to hit Labour hard in many marginals, and certainly help account for big losses in London predicted by Sean.
These are marginals I reckon could be affected, and I am sure there are others.
Lab-Con
Stroud
Bradford West
Wolverhampton SW.
Hammersmith & F.
Wimbledon
Peterborough
Ilford North
Putney
Finchley & Golders Green
Brighton Kemptown
Leeds North West
Harrow W.
Lab-Lib
Bristol West
Cardiff Central
Birmingham Yardley
Cambridge
Labour still has a significant lead in the 18-24 catagory (38% L, 23%T, 20% LD in last ICM). I admit that includes the non-student vote, still 70% of 18-24, but it is far from conclusive that holding an election outside of term time would help Labour over the Lib Dems.
Labour still has a significant lead in the 18-24 catagory (38% L, 23%T, 20% LD in last ICM). I admit that includes the non-student vote, still 70% of 18-24, but it is far from conclusive that holding an election outside of term time would help Lib Dems over Labour.
Labour still has a significant lead in the 18-24 catagory (38% L, 23%T, 20% LD in last ICM). I admit that includes the non-student vote, still 70% of 18-24, but it is far from conclusive that holding an election outside of term time would help Labour over Lib Dems.
The June stuff sounds like misinformation to me, though I guess if the May elections were delayed it might be possible. (Why do papers buy this stuff? - the supposed Feb GE date made some front pages yet was clearly rubbish.) Lab will do worse in local elections if the GE is not on the same day because their vote is less motivated, esp., I guess, this year. In many council wards/divisions LDs and Tories win because of the voter differential and smart targeting - this is much harder to achieve on a GE turn-out. So if TB did decide to delay until after locals he’d be v unpopular with his activists and councillors. And those are the people he needs pounding the door-steps in the coming months.
Yes, I cannot believe June is anything other than disinformation. Even if you believe that students voting is terrible for Labour (and Steve 2’s point on 18-24 year olds suggests this is dubious) the minority of students who are inclined to vote will just vote at home or by post. This would diffuse the “student vote” but wouldn’t really diminish it - and there seems to be limited evidence that university seats are very much more marginal than other seats (plenty of student-y areas are marginal, but so are plenty of other places).
And why risk the headlines and loss of activists from a potentially bad result in the local elections? The Tories start from a high base in the counties but they and the Lib Dems may very well make further progress in the cities.
The logic of having Brown deliver a masterful budget performance (as he so often does) in March then going to the country almost immediately on a “Britain is Booming” basis is pretty irrefutable, in my view. Any movement in the odds on date?
By the way, I think Mike should sue over the “gambler not a prophet” remark. How dare Cohen cast doubt on Smithson’s divinely inspired credentials? The sooner the religious hatred laws stamp out this sort of offensive journalism, the better.
Sorry if this has been mentioned, but interesting story on one paper that Labour is considering changing the election to June, so the student vote cannot lose them seats. Cardiff Central, a seat I know quite well, is a prime example. EVERY concil seat in the constituency was won by the Lib Dems this year, and there are a few very young councillors who motivate the students in Cardiff (I think they have the youngest in the country?). I think the only hope Jon Owen Jones has for winning the seat is to have no students- but somehow I feel it won’t be enough. I’ve seen some pretty effective campaigning linking J O J to tuition fees.
Ben…………I would be amazed if the student vote( students entitled to vote excluding international students etc) was less than 50% in 97………I was a candidate in leicester at that election and there was a lot of interest from students…….more than any other group…
Is anybody else here a candidate? I am looking at standing and even though its last minute…and on paper the seat is not that promising…will have to face a contested selection which a few months ago would have seemed unlikely as we have had a generation of candidates “retire”………despite having been actively involved in politics for over 20 years and having stood three times before(for a different party) I am buzzing at the prospect of going into a selection contest let alone a possible campaign……..
Interesting story about June, even if it is totally wrong. The Sun are good at getting their election dates wrong- so May 5th can’t be cast iron. Also, if Labour do terribly at Council level- what for the election?. I think that the student vote can lose them a few, but not many seats. Cardiff Central, a seat I know quite well, is a prime example. EVERY concil seat in the constituency was won by the Lib Dems this year, and there are a few very young councillors who motivate the students in Cardiff (I think they have the youngest in the country?). I think the only hope Jon Owen Jones has for winning the seat is to have no students- but somehow I feel it won’t be enough. I’ve seen some pretty effective campaigning linking J O J to tuition fees.
Trust me Mark, Student turnout was very low that said I could see it having been higher in 97 than at any time since… which seat where you looking at? Please say the Rhonda
one of the very few places where they still weight the Labour vote [drifts off into nostalgic haze of smoke filled working mens clubs and trade union barons]… despite the fact that Plaid briefly did well in the Welsh assembly elections there back in 99 
I am quite friendly with some of our people from the Rhondda and I know Chris Bryant from his days as a Hackney councillor and “Four Letter ” Leighton Andrews (assembly member and fan of the Windsor family) from his Liberal alliance days…but its a long way for me to travel:) BTW we will be back in the Rhondda Cynon Taff Council in a big way in four years time….
I am looking at a seat in North Wales……its one where PC have underperformed given the proportion of Welsh speakers and the fact we have councillors and a reasonable membership…….dont want to say which one until I am Officially on the approved candidates list and shortlisted. In ideal world I would have liked to have stood in Montgomery but we have an excellent candidate there already:)
60% of young people 18-21 aren’t students
Some university seats aren’t all that marginal. Keele, for example, falls within Newcastle-under-Lyme, which is a fairly safe Labour seat. As a postgraduate there during the 97 election, I didn’t need much persuasion from the local Labour Club to apply for a postal vote in my rather more marginal home constituency.
There’s some truth in what Ben says re. students not bothering to vote, at least in mid-term elections. I well remember how we all received voting cards for the Euro elections at my halls of residence in Nottingham in 94. I voted in them (as well I might, having just joined the Labour Party, and having cast my first vote in the County elections the previous year), but no else I knew in halls did.
It may well be, though, that - what with Iraq and top-up fees - students are more politicised than they were in the mid-90s (I well remember excitedly telling people in my corridor that I’d met Tony Benn, only for them to take the wind out of my sails by asking ‘Who’s Tony Benn?’) Even back in 94, a bloke in my corridor from Eastleigh took the trouble of voting by post in the by-election, and I saw plenty of students voting at the Keele polling station in 97.
In my experience students are far more likely to have an affinity with their home constituency, and will therefore vote there. “Low student turnouts” is misleading because most are registered in two places.
To take the student argument seriously, Blair has to accept all of the following arguable but not very solid propositions:
1. Labour is well behind other parties (Tories included in relevant seats) among students - Steve 2 suggests this is questionable, even though as Alex says, most in the 18-24 category are not students;
2. A lot of university seats are at risk - Will suggests 4 at risk from the Lib Dems and 11 from the Tories (from whom Labour may have less to fear in relation to students) which is not a large number;
3. Student turnout will be large enough to make up quite a large proportion of all votes in those seats - Ben makes a case against this being the case though others like Mark take a different line;
4. The “at risk” seats are likely to be close enough for it to make a difference - some, like Cardiff if some correspondents are to be believed, may be doomed anyway while Labour may be quite confident in others among the 15 that Will names;
5. There is something strong to suggest that the alternative is any better (e.g. students are much less likely to vote at home or are much less likely to live in marginal seats) - Alex makes a case that it may be even worse for Labour if students are at home; and
6. Even accepting the above, that it is worth foregoing the likely budget bounce and risking weak local election results to ensure students are on their holidays.
I just can’t see it at all, I’m afraid!
surely more to the point james labour would not wish to cull 400-500 of its key activists (councillors) pointlessly - how many labour councillors who had just lost their seat would want to throw themselves into a campaign to elect blair who had in effect cost them their seat? the only reason would be to tax opposition funds and one month would not achieve this surely
surely more to the point james labour would not wish to cull 400-500 of its key activists (councillors) pointlessly - how many labour councillors who had just lost their seat would want to throw themselves into a campaign to elect blair who had in effect cost them their seat? the only reason would be to tax opposition funds and one month would not achieve this surely
I’m not convinced that the loss of GMW, student, and Muslim votes will have a very big impact in Labour/Conservative marginals (Harrow West, for example, is much more Hindu than Muslim).
Why I would expect the Conservatives to do well in London suburbia is more because I expect these seats to revert to type. They used to be safely Conservative, then crashing house prices, professional unemployment, and (in NW London)the threatened closure of Edgware General hospital caused a violent reaction against the Conservatives. Those issues have now faded - and the various rounds of elections in London since 2001 suggest such seats are going back to their traditional allegiance. In NE London, concerns over immigration are also shifting votes to the Conservatives (and in some areas the BNP).
Sorry don’t think it is the only reason for likely losses in London especially outer London but a large fall in the Labour vote amongst Muslims and GMW could hit Labour in tight races in many London marginals, most London seats have a greater GMW vote than the national average.
Fair point from Tony, though 400-500 Labour losses may be pushing the case too far.
2005 does not involve all that many councillors (some of the county divisions are just very large) and Labour starts from a moderately low base. Around 2500 councillors were elected in 2001 (of which 843 were Labour, 1093 Tory, 449 Lib). This compares with around 6000 in each of 2002 and 2004, and more than 10,000 in 2003. This makes losses on the scale Tony suggests in terms of absolute numbers less likely - that would involve losing half their defending councillors and they only lost about 20% this year despite starting from a much higher base.
To Alex’s point at 3 there was a good example of the effect of a mass of less knowledgeable punters on the Hartlepool by-election day. As soon as the markets re-opened at 7am there was a rush of money on Labour as favourite. Others piled on thinking that this was on the basis on some knowledge - whicxh did not exist. I laid a pile on Betfair at 1.06. Then in the afternoon reports from the LDs started to indicate that it wasn’t going too badly. The Labour price moved to 1.20 and I got out at a very nice profit. In my article the following morning I noted
..For those of us trading - backing and laying a party - this provides a good model for the future. Lay the favourite in the late morning - back the favourite in the afternoon and try to get on as much as possible after 6pm when a clear trend is shown”.
It was the same on November 2nd when the first indications were that the exit polls were pointing to Kerry. The less experienced piled in and I got out of my long Kerry position by laying it all at 1.40. I ended up even.
The betting exchanges were not really a force in 2001 though they will be next time.
The County Councils exclude Greater London, the conurbations, and the Unitary Authorities. Thus, for Labour to get 843 councillors was a very good result for Labour, and could only have been achieved on the back of the 2001 election result. If June’s vote shares were repeated in the next round of County elections, Labour would probably lose c.300 seats. If (probably more realistically) there were just a small Conservative lead, Labour would probably still be looking at losing 150 or so seats, which would not be a good backdrop to a general election campaign.
Re. 36, won’t the Tories be helped in quite a few areas by boundary changes? In my part of the world, for example, Labour holds both of the town’s county council seats. As a result, though, of boundary changes (which combine one of our key core areas, a council estate, with outlying Tory rural areas), we’re a seat down already even if our vote doesn’t fall compared with 2001. I can well believe that Labour is at risk of losing Staffs.!
As i say I think this is just news for a slow news day
May 5th seems by far the best date IMHO, the council elections will go best when people are voting for their MPs and with a highly visible national campaign, unlike in other contest the party starts from such a low base it shouldn’t be that bad, but GMW and Muslim voters could give us a hammering in bits of London, sad part is some Labour runs councils in London are very credible (special mention to Camden 
).
As I said I doubt that anyone within the Labour Party is taking into account “student voters”, to tell the truth even I think they underestimate student voters from the folks I know, and that’s saying something! So I doubt Students are going to cause the election to be moved… by the way Mark that bet on Gloating rights on for Cambridge
Mike your point about Hartlepool/America is a different issue to to what you are talking about in your post - “as we get closer to polling day” etc. Violent swings actually on polling day because people think that some people are privy to inside information are different - it is not a knowledge of Politics which would give you an advantage in that situation, merely the skills of a day trader on the stock market.
In terms of the University seats does anyone know if there are many students actually involved in campaigning. The biggest political grouping at Edinburgh (the Conservative & Unionist Society) only has 80 members which amazingly is more than Labour, Lib. Dems and SSP put together. If similar levels of apathy exist across the UK its hard to see student votes or activism making any difference. Also in 2001 I got two ballot papers (one for Edinburgh S. and one for home) so can students not just pick and choose where they want to vote?
County councillors are to put it bluntly more important than district councillors with bigger allowances so even a loss of 150 will be pretty painful. I must admit I wouldn’t have forecast it quite up there but you never know. Down here Labour CCs are endangered except for in Exeter. Presently they have 5. I think they would probably be down to 1 if the county elections are held alone and 3 at best if there is a General Election. Would be interesting to have forecasts from elsewhere…
Does anyone else feel that there is something wrong with allowing students to register at both term time and holiday addresses? When I was a student in the 1970s we didn’t much engage with local politics, especially when living in a Hall of Residence.
With the growth of postal voting might there a case for legislation that allows students (especially if living in university-owned accommodation) to get on the register in the University area only if they can prove that their term-time address is their sole or main abode?
The issue of ID cards seems to be causing consternation in the Conservative party if you read the comments attached to http://thecandidatespeaks.blogspot.com/2004/12/bad-idea-michael.html
Do others think that Micahel Howard has made a serious error of judgement here?
Steve T - sadly, I think Howard has made the right judgment in terms of pleasing his core vote.
PaulW, why shouldn’t students register in the areas they study in? Are they somehow unaffected by the decisions the council in that area makes? I think students generally ought to engage more with the general life of the area they study in, and disenfranchising them from local elections is a funny way to do that.
As for “main abode”, almost all universities have more than 26 weeks a year of term time - so how are they not their students’ “main abode”? Even at places with shorter terms, it would be pretty rare for a student to spend less than half the year at university.
BV - do you class core vote as the 30% or so of the electorate who vote Tory or the activists? If so, then presumably they are more “conservative” than “libertarian”
Maybe Howard is right in the short term but wrong in the long term. As a LD I think it pretty likely that our opposition will be an electoral negative. But when it all goes pear-shaped after the election, costs far more, techonology doesn’t work, people who lose their cards cease to exist etc. etc. and LDs have been attacked by Labour particularly for opposing it I suspect/hope that voters will remember who was right.
Jon - as a LD how can you have any faith in voters?
:)
I’m an atheist so I don’t have any faith in anything. Actually maybe nihilist is closer.
But seriously I do believe the public could be searching for something that isn’t Labour and isn’t Tory in 2010. If it turns out LDs were right about Iraq, ID cards, the economy and the environment eventually people will vote for us. Tribalism is in decline…
Well maybe.
Steve T - I primarily meant the 30% of the electorate, with whom the mantra “The innocent have nothing to hide” will be persuasive (though I suspect they still put up curtains in their windows).
However, I suspect most activists are conservative rather than libertarian too. The blogging minority are probably not representative.
Good point Book Value. I think that ID cards are an expensive piece of red tape, as do most of my Conservative acquaintances - but as you put it, they are mainly “the blogging minority”.
Most Conservatives (and most voters generally) take the view that if you’ve done nothing wrong you’ve nothing to worry about.
But there is more to life than just those issues. The Lib Dems are completely out of step with the British people on the Euro, the E Constitution, regional government, tax, law and order, pornography, drugs to name but a few. Your tax and European policies are enough alone to make you unelectable.
Does anyone else feel that there is something wrong with allowing students to register at both term time and holiday addresses
A large number don’t have any choice - the universities register them automatically.
Ben
Of course I was talking about past student voting…in 97 students voted because it was an interesting election because people believed “a change is a coming” …I think in marginal seats turn out will be 40-50% amongst students…..dont forget a lot of students are “international” and not able to vote anyway….there was a rally in Cardiff a few weeks ago which I am told reliably had 2000 students at…against tuition fees….the PC education spokeswoman in the assembly is pushing the line that “we can stop tuition fees in Wales”
On another note….I was looking at that stuff in the Guardian the other day about voting at 16 …..I have always been in favour but I really wish it was happening for this election……according to the poll 3% of all 16 years old who would vote if they could would vote Plaid!!! Thats virtually every 16 year old in Wales!!!!! I wish it were true as it would be enough to win us the assembly in two years time:)
Jon - at the risk of sounding Eyorish (and Graham prescribing me a course of Prozac), by the time the electorate realise that we were right all along we’ll be sitting in post-apocalyptic wasteland. So on the bright side we’ll be past caring.
What happened, apparently, in Australia could be a useful precedent though. Legislation was introduced with overwhelming public support in the polls, but was eventually defeated in the Senate with over 90% of the public opposed. Combine that with the universal hatred that led to ID cards being abolished in this country after the war, and I think it unlikely they will ever come to fruition, or will prove useless if they do with the Government unable to use them for any of their intended purposes.
Apparently as a precursor they are going to be introducing biometric identification in passports. I’m yet to understand how this information is going to be collected in practice. Presumably it will put an end to sending off for a passport in the post!
Literally off message in this case. Wrong thread with my last post. Sorry.
Off message… perhaps you are not as far off message as you might think! But seriously the first three on your list will be dead, buried and eaten by worms by the time of the next election. As for the rest I suspect that applies more to conservatives and Conservatives - there are still quite a few other kinds of people out there.
OM - this board isn’t really about party political stuff so I won’t take issue with you about your statement at 51, except to say that any idea of a homogenous “the British People” who want to keep the pound, withdraw from Europe etc etc is not one I would want to build an election strategy on.
Assuming that the current government is re-elected next year, what impact do you all think a likely defeat in the EU Constitution Referendum would have on their future prospects?
I think it is their Black Wednesday.
I don’t think that defeat is a given for the following reasons:
- the “yes” campaign will get its act together and explain that this constitution actually limits Brussels’ powers rather than increases them
- opposition is at least partly around the “No because we don’t know what it means” camp
- the precedent of 1975
I think a defeat is fairly certain because the no campaign is essentially saying that the EU is a sinister institutuion which would stab you in the back if you weren’t looking, and the yes campaign is saying we had better do as the EU says or the four horseman of the apocalypse will be running amok. Which seem to me to be the same thing.
Oh and there are a whole load of “you can’t possibly let the plebs decide” quotes from yes campaigners and Labour MPs which can be wheeled out to great effect. I would predict about 2 to 1 at the moment.
Sean - I don’t think the EU will do for Labour. I think the impending financial crash will though. Ultiamtely anything governments do that hits voters in the pocket will do for them.
Off Message,
Can I recount one of my favourite “Lib Dems are out of step with the British public” stories. Back in ‘00 or ‘99, the Lib Dems conference voted for the legalisation of cannabis.
The Sun led with a “Loony Lib Dems” story, which contained a “What do you think? Call 0898″ insta-poll.
Two days later, a small story on page 7 said “Sun readers vote for legalisation of cannabis”. It amused me no end.
The moral being, and I realise this is at odds with some political parties: I (personally, not the Lib Dems) would rather be right, than chase the opinion polls and foxus groups. YMMV of course…
Cheers,
Robert
YMMV? Please translate for those of us who are elderly and don’t have a mobile phone so have never learnt how to text…
IA - FWIW I don’t know what this one is. IMHO and AFAIK these acronyms arose as usenet shorthand for people using newsgroups. OTOH, I could be completely wrong about this, and as I speak there could be several people ROTFLMAO at my naievety.
Your Mileage May Vary.
Steve, you didn’t get IIRC in there!
And GMW?
The question mark denotes the fact I have no idea what it means, and I’ve been hacking for years.
Guardian Man & Woman (realy that should be GP - Guardian Person :)) Shorthand on this site for the sort of pinko commie liberal hand-wringing chattering-class Hamstead Islington Public-Sector former New Labour educated middle-class activist who have turned against Tony in opposition to Iraq. Are reckoned to be small in number but influential because of their concentration in inner-city seats and the removal of their activisim from Labour’s electoral effort.
Re 52 - The great thing about being registered in 2 places is that you can vote twice in local (but not general) elections. Not many do, and the student vote is generally too apathetic to make it worthwhile the parties pushing it - but in tight council elections it could make all the difference.
Apparently it means Guardian Men and Women. I think Guardianistas is more lyrical, but requires more key strokes. I think it was made up by Ben - IMHO he seems to be the dab hand at all this new fangled mobile phone type stuff. I reckon if you checked he has probably got overdeveloped ‘text thumbs’.
Guardian Men and Women
NB - despite also being a Stephen, I am not the same person as Stephen T. Ben, however, due to the frequency of his posts, is actually four people
He must therefore have eight over developed text thumbs
Should we have a glossary of commonly used abbreviations? I think we have all been confused on occasions and it would save embarrasment and time if there was a look up we could go to when people start bandying letters about with wanton abandon.
Thanks for the clarification. I guess the “GMV” are the same group as the Twofaced Odious So-called Socialists who Privately Opt-out of The State….?
http://www.loganact.com/tips/afaik.html
This linkgive general usenet acronyms. IIRC
there aren’t too many specific TLAs on this site but perhaps Robert/Mike will include a FAQ as part of the revisions.
Andy - brilliant - ROFLMAO
Whicj reminds me. I wanted to start a website called Acronyms Really Shouldn’t Exist!
surely Grauniad Mne Nad Wmeon?
Thanks for the link, Steve T, which I’ve bookmarked so I can become as net-savvy as the rest of you…
IA - its amazing what you can find on Google!
Showing your age bv. Since spell checks have been invented no one gets that. When people like Ben with his text thumbs start to become the sub editor it will revert, but none of the readers wil notice because no one under 25 can spell (and yes my last comment did include an error, but as my wife would say ‘that was typo’)
Didn’t someone want a new name for the Guardian Reader - the only one that springs to mind is “mugwump” - I think it’s apt and I’m not taking the p**s either!
Re 74 & whether Ben is a composite person. A few months ago someone emailed me privately with the simple message - “Did I know that Peter Mandelson’s middle name is Ben?” Given there has been no decline in Ben’s number of posts since Mandy went to Brussels we can safely rule out that theory - and I cannot imagine the real Peter Mandelson know so much about Leicester or the detailed Commons record of one of the city’s MPs.
No - but there would be no difficulty if Mandy were (where) part of the collective.
Mike - Further to 85 - I thought “mugwump”was an american term for a politican who sat on the fence - I have now been told this is not the case but a slang term for unsavory activities - my apologies if I upset anyone - I will check next time before posting
I thought they were imaginings from “the Naked Lunch”?
What TB probably has in mind is: Lab maj. < 40. Nutters take over party. Total collapse. Tories in within six months.(don’t say you’re not dreaming of it, you blues!). If things get tight in the next few days, Campbell will probably make this idea explicit, one way or another.
Thank you, I just wanted to give a greeting and tell you I like your website.
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