“The Website of Choice for Real Political Anoraks”
December 27th, 2004
Telegraph commentator says LDs might be a good buy
We don’t know whether Tony Blair is a regular on the site yet but a feature in the Daily Telegraph today by George Trefgarne states that “For real political anoraks, the website of choice is politicalbetting.com.”
Whether the thousands of users who come onto the site each day share that view of themselves we do not know but there is little doubt that a huge amount of detailed knowledge about what is going on throughout the country is shared here by the site’s many contributors.
In an end of year assessment of the current political scene and how the betting markets are moving Trefgarne looks at tactical vote unwind, the latest state of the polls and how well the Lib Dems might do. It’s worth reading.
He observes Like millions of others, the followers of politicalbetting.com are deeply depressed at the surprising uselessness of Michael Howard’s Tories. Prices reflect this malaise. Last summer, Sportingindex was offering a spread of 235-240 on the number of seats the Tories could gain at the next election (they won 166 in 2001). Now the spread has collapsed to just 198-206. However, my guess is that Labour’s lead is wobbly, like a man on stilts. The polls show there is a widespread feeling that Labour ministers - not just Tony Blair - are not to be trusted; that the war is a fiasco; that crime is rising; immigration is out of control; and that public services are chaotic and bad value for money. History also tells us that governments start to fall apart when they lose control of the public finances. Last month, Gordon Brown borrowed £9.4 billion, more than any other chancellor on record. The public are not stupid and sense there is a serious deficit: a recent poll by Populus found that 67 per cent believe Labour will put up taxes after the election.
If you think Labour is pretty awful and the Tories lack spine, you may be left with no choice but to vote Liberal Democrat. Of course, nobody expects them to form a government, and their bizarre policy platform shows worrying signs of multiple personality disorder. They are in favour of 50 per cent income tax for higher earners; joining the euro; congestion charging in London but not in Edinburgh; and as recently as 2002 half the front bench actually voted in favour of ID cards. But they do have the advantage of being neither Labour nor Tories.
Trefgarne goes on to suggest that if the Lib Dem spread price falls to 65-70 Commons seats then a buy might be a good bet. We are not so sure.
Latest General Election seat spreads from Spreadfair - the spreadbetting exchange.
LAB 351.5-352.7: CON 194-199: LIBD 68-71.5: SNP 5-6: PC 4-5: UKIP 0.6-1.1
The spreads are usually much narrower because Spreadfair combines the benefits of a betting exchange with a spread market. Their spreads are also much more market sensitive.In order to defray some of Politicalbetting’s costs we have reached an agreement whereby we receive a commission on accounts that are opened through the site. We like the way that Spreadfair has a full range of party options though not, as yet, Respect. If you are opening a spread-betting account I would be grateful if you could do it through the site. Many thanks.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
A good article - I read it over breakfast, nice publicity for your site and I’ll take you up on passing you some commission from opening an account. Has to be said, I don’t post much, but find the whole site an informative read (once you get an idea of the angle posters are coming from) and am only too happy to help you lower the net cost.
I don’t know about political anoraks (I prefer the term politics junkie), but has anyone else noticed how few (if any) women post here? The only poster I can think of who might be female is Georgie (a gender-neutral name)
Then again, men outnumber women by a considerable ratio in university politics departments (Pippa Norris is one leading female politics lecturer, but there aren’t many others - not well-known ones, anyway).
This is all the more surprising when there’s less of a gender gap in political reporting. There’s already one female Political Editor (Daisy Sampson is a possible future second), and there are numerous women political correspondents and columnists. You’d have thought that the ostensibly PC groves of academe would be just as (if not more) gender neutral than privately owned media organisations such as ITN (which, technically, still exists, if only to supply C4 News), Sky, and various newspapers.
I think that Icarus is a woman. If he is not then I’m sure he’ll correct me. But the point is well made.
And it might be as well that part of the team that comprise Ben is also female.
I prefer politics junkie to political anorak. I not the type who knows who is MP in every seat (or every Representative in the US) off by heart, but elections of any sort fascinate me. It was a very good piece and one that should produce a few hits for this excellent site.
Well I have a rather nice parka, which I believe is “trendy”, “with it” and “down with the kids.” It has a fluffy hood but I have not been unable to ascertain its political views.
Anyway, congratulations on your growing recognition. The site fully deserves it. I wouldn’t say it’s so much essential for political anoraks as for people who don’t want to be sucked into that state, but who need a concise daily briefing on how power is configuring itself on any going day.
I thoroughly enjoy the site and sad anorak that I am can’t wait for the firing gun for the nect election- I especially value the site comments from the Lib/Dems who contrary to my everyday campaigning experience do post comments that are in touch with the reality of their political prospects. That said how about adressing some of the “interesting” campaigning literature that they are currently putting out through out Herts where they have a set of generic articles interspresed with local stuff? In all the seats they say “local tories privately admit its a two horse race etc” even though as in many of the seats they are in poor third place. Surely this sort of flim flam just puts voters off political literature full stop. I really wish this sort of stuff was ditched and campaign teams engaged the voters with their policies not dodgy graphs etc that lead people into cul de sacs. Any views on current campaigning Literature?
Pip
The reason for your ‘dodgy graphs’ - used as much by any major party you choose (and the Nats in some constituencies) is the First Past the Post system. The folk who run the parties in these areas have cottoned on to the truth which is that a very large chunk of the electorate are not sure (or bothered?) which Party or candidate they support the most, but they are pretty sure about who they want to NOT win. Consequently the ‘who is in second place’ (and by extension likely to win) becomes more vital. And it is not at all clear in every constituency who really is in second place even to the impartial. I recall a dinner Party, hosted by a gent who is now thechair of a Hertfordshire Conservative association, where two of the guests, husband and wife, reported taking different views about the Labour and Lib Dems attempts to ’squeeze’ each others’ voters in St Albans two elections ago. Similarly the Lib Dems only won the Littelborough & Saddleworth by-election because in the two elections previously in that constituency they had knocked back Labour’s attempts to portray themselves as the ‘challenger’ in the seat from a reasonable third place position.
Icarus was son of Daedelus. He didn’t listen to his elders and betters and flew too near the sun.
Last time I looked I was a 55 year old male - slightly besotted by Jody Dunn but otherwise quite normal!
Re. 8, I too thought Jody Dunn was quite attractive. So you’re not alone Icarus. I don’t like Ms Dunn as much, though, as the gorgeous Daisy Sampson (who, although admirably neutral on the Daily Politics, used to work as Charles Kennedy’s press secretary, so I assume she’s an LD).
Before anyone posts to accuse me of the sexism which probably deters women from going into politics (or the study of it in academe), let me plead in mitigation that I mentioned Daisy Sampson first in connection with her credentials to be a future Political Editor (at 2), and I only mentioned her pulchritude when Icarus mentioned the looks of Jody Dunn. How anyone can still think of blondes as dumb after watching Daisy Sampson on the Daily Politics is beyond me.
Is she, by the way, the daughter of the late Anthony Sampson?
Dunn was overrated IMHO… When I caught a glimpse of her I wasn’t that impressed a 7 not a 7.5 though…
Let it never be said the Labour Party is chauvinistic in any way
That said the amount the Labour Party Drinks and Eats when on Campaign is quite impressive.
Hmm Ben what do you think your score would be amongst female activists…..:)
… meow Mark!
Just asked my wife what mine would be and she suggested minus 3 :0)
Its worrying cos we have only been married a year:)
Hope you are having a good holiday or has Sir Peter got you looking at marked registers from elections seven years ago?
Icarus - my apologies.
Mike, Accepted, you can’t be right all the time!
I’m inclining towards Spreadfair but I can’t really get any numbers around credit requirements from the site. What is the Notional Trading Requirement in the general election market? (e.g. how much margin would I need to put down for a £10 per seat bet?)
Daisy Sampson, crap day time telly journalist. Like Darlo Dunn the looks will fade leaving the residual vaccum of a non-entity, non-idealogue Lib Dem.
Sorry for my throw away remark re Jody Dunn - I am not sure the appeal is about looks (what did Fortier/Quinn see in Blunket and Simon Hoggart?) but some people have an attraction , personality (?), that seems to be attractive to a large number of people - perhaps not just of the opposite sex - eg Bill Clinton?
A lot of people have something that seems to be attractive to Bill Clinton
Mark
Nah… I’m too busy trying to imbibe enough alcohol as possible
Peter and Malcolm seem to be taking care of the office for now anyway as it’s a stone’s throw from where they live… I need a rest, that said I wouldn’t call having spend Christmas with the family “a rest” though I did get to see “the producers” suddenly I appreciate musicals!
But do not fear I’ll be back very soon to make sure Gill’s unemployed come May 2nd 2005
What time zone are you in Tom? daisy Sampson is on looking appallingly good and talking concise sense on politics to a mass audience at times in the morning that I cannot find my mobile. She has also been on late propping up that political ignoramus Brer Brown Brillo Pad.
I somehow doubt any national media would employ Tom to do either!
Happy New Year peeps.
Sarah Smith is another possible future Political Editor (probably most likely at ITV News or C4 News, when the Daily Mail would probably raise hell if the daughter of the late John Smith was made BBC Political Editor - despite the fact that, personally, I’ve never detected the slighest hint of political bias in her political reporting).
She’s very good as a newsreader on C4 News. anyway. She’s a definite improvement on the glacially snooty Samirah Ahmed, who reads the news as if it’s all the viewer’s fault. I don’t half miss Daljit Dhaliwal since she went to CNN. Where’s Tanya Sillem these days?
Re. 18 and, indeed, my own comments, I’d say that attractive politicians such as Jody Dunn probably rate a mention in a profession once described as ’showbusiness for ugly people’. Clinton’s appeal was once described in terms of every woman (or soccer mom) having once dated a Bill Clinton (ie rather rakish and inclined to play away, but charismatic at the same time). Similarly, there were plenty of women Labour voters who had a soft spot for Michael Portillo even at his most Alan B’Stard like.
I’m reminded (posts above re Political Pulchritude) of the winning candidate for SU Pres whilst at University. A comment was made in the student paper that she’d mobilised the “groin vote”
Whilst we’re on the subject, Kirsty Wark does it for me - there’s something about that Morningside accent …
Martha Kearney for the more discerning gentleman, I think.
BTW, re 20, hasn’t Mr Gill got until 5th May before he can think about claiming jobseekers rather than 2nd - or does Ben have inside knowledge of a snap election on the Monday?
Kirsty Wark has definitely grown on me (she always seems slightly more coquettish when presenting Newsnight Review). Martha K will never do it for me - her face is the wrong shape, I don’t like her Mary Poppins-like manner, and, if accent is part of the attraction, I used to turn off Newsnight (or change channels) to avoid those painful cut-glass vowels (all the more ludicrous when she was born in Dublin - she’d sound much nicer with an Irish accent). Give me Kirsty Wark’s Morningside, Sarah Smith’s Scottish West Coast tones, Karin Giannone’s neutral RP, or Bridget Nzekwu’s educated Estuary anyday. Just to show I’m not an inverted snob, I find Stephanie Flanders’ contrived glottal stops (laughable Blair-like islands of Mockney in a sea of Oxbridge) irritating as well.
None of this is to say that Anonymous is not discerning - it just goes to show that beauty is in the eye (and the ear) of the beholder.
[13] “marked registers from elections”
Presumably referring to the way your ballot paper number is pencilled into the margin of the electoral list when you vote - so that your vote is in no way secret.
What is done with this information? Why is there so little protest?
Ron - Yep, that’s it. Obviously you can’t tell how people voted from the marked register unless you have access to all the ballot papers (which obviously you don’t), but you can tell IF people voted.
The ballot papers themselves can only be looked at and matched up with the marked registered through a court order in the event of suspicion of electoral fraud. This very rarely happens.
There are, of course, various claims that MI6 like to go through the papers after elections to mark down the names of anyone who votes BNP, Communist, etc. Maybe they do.
I don’t know if they do that, but I do know that they open a file on anyone who stands for election, even a local one. I’ve often wondered what’s in mine…
FYI, female visitor to the site here…
Hi… which allegiance or a genuine punter only interested in the cash?
I think Anthony means MI5. The SIS (MI6) would probably only be snooping around if, say, there were a large number of postal votes originating from Pyonyang or Tehran. Apparently, this is a regular feature here in Esher and Walton, and may explain my shock defeat - sadly by more than 007 votes - in Hersham North back in June.
Jon - here through family loyalty rather than political interest. Trying to get Mike’s hit rate up!
Haha ok Mike could be looking forward to next year’s NY honours at this rate.
Do they really open a file on everyone who stands for a local election? So some agent has to spend all day mulling over back issues of Focus and In Touch to check whether information on potholes and damaged street furniture could be of value to the Enemy?
What a job. You never see that aspect covered on “Spooks” - I have a new respect for the security services as a result of Mr (Ms?) Abroad’s revelation.
Apart from Focus and In Touch, there is (or was) a publication in the Stone constituency known as the Bill Cash News(letter). If the Tory selectorate in Stone had picked Sir David Knox instead (who initially signalled his interest in Stone, but then withdrew, knowing that Cash had got it sewn up), the people of Stone (or, at least, the MI5 agents who read it) would be spared such cruel and unusual punishment.
Re 30, 31 & 34 - Becky is another one of the Smithson clan - my daughter.
On a day like today though the hit rate has been enormous and I think we will break the record for the number of contributions.
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