Help wanted - General Election Competition
December 30th, 2004I am compiling a General Election Prediction competition which as well as the general forecasts has six or seven seat specific elements.
At the moment I’ve got Bethnal Green & Bow (George Galloway); Cambridge (the most discussed seat on the site) ; Dorset West (Oliver Letwin’s and a LD decapitation target) ; Brent East (by-election follow-up) and St. Albans (possible tactical vote unwind) .
I’d like interesting Scottish and Welsh seats as well as any other suggestions for seats that represent a type.
This will go out tomorow - New Year’s Eve.
Mike Smithson
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Wiltshire N - potentialy high-water 2001 Con/LD marginal, but with a sizeable Labour vote remaining to be squeezed. Shows whether (a) Tory position strenghtening, (b) whether anti-Tory Lab to LD switchers are returning and (c) whether rump Labour vote will stay at home or be encouraged to vote tactically.
Most iteresting seat in Scotland has to be Inverness etc. Bits of it are held by the Liberal Democrats, by Labour at Westminster and by the SNP at Holyrood. Add in the vagaries of Highland politics and the accuracy of notional results and this one becomes very difficult to call.
Maidenhead is a good example of the LD decapitation stratergy and one which they are more likley to win IMHO… that said Letwin is far more high profile than May these days.
Falmouth/Camborne and Bristol South as 3-way margingals
Oops - Bristol West that should have been. If we’re talking about Decapitation then surely Howard’s End in F&H has to be on there?
A note or two on Brent-East, the Labour campaign is blessed with good staff and a good candidate, the LD campaign is blessed with a very energetic candidate (don’t know what the local LDs are like, prior to 2003 there practically didn’t exist) also turnout in the by-election was only 36% with those not turning to vote disproportionately made up of the Labour Leaning Irish and Afro-Caribbean Communities while turnout within the Muslim community was high.
Another interesting to point is what will happen is “Respect” run a candidate.
The seat in Devon (?) where Roger Knapman is standing (UKIP)
Don’t know where it is, but surely you should include the seat which, on UNS, causes Labour to lose its overall majority? Are we going to be asked to guess merely the winner or the majority too - if so, suggest it in percentage terms - unless you want us to guess the turn-out too!
IA - I may be wrong on this, but on the old HOC (659 seats) with a 169 Lab majority they’d need to lose 85 seats, which by ranking Labour-held 2001 seats in order of marginality makes it Wirral South. not sure where we are in the new HOC with 644 seats.
The seat that the Tories need to win to form an overall majority (Norwich South) or a bell-weather Tory-LD marginal (North Norfolk) or a new town Tory-Labour fight (MK, Watford, St Albans etc)
IA,
A quick and dirty shufti through electoralcalculus.co.uk suggests that Con 35.33/Lab 34/ LD 20.4 would give a result of Labour 1 short - and the swing seat would be Birmingham Edgbaston (the only difference from Con 35.32/Lab 34/ LD 20.4 is Birmingham Edgbaston moving from Lab-Con).
Unfortunately, as we’re looking at 2 possible swings away from Labour to deal with (Lab-Con and Lab-LD) for such a prediction, there are many possible answers.
Rochdale - though theoretically less ‘winnable’ for Lib Dems than its neighbour Oldham East, it has a much bigger ethnic vote to target. Bolton West - can a Cabinet Minister without a single councillor really win an election? Watford - because it is not a Tory-Lab fight, whatever Marc Ed tries to persuade himself. Ipswich - because it’s Ipswich! Colne Valley - can the Tories find a new candidate to replace the one who left after being ‘bullied’ by the local Conservative ‘mafia’, and can they win in an area dominated by Lib dems in local government? Kidderminster - post ‘independant’ fall-out.
Zeb - are you Lord Razzall?
I agree re. Rochdale - can the LibDems win it back (same goes for Taunton and IOW). Bolton West would be good (cabinet minister with a 5000 majority is always fun). I know Watford well, and it WILL be a Tory-Labour fight no matter how much zebidee swallows the LD propaganda. Also worth a look are: Sedgefield (Blair’s seat), Galloway (can the Tories win in Scotland), Great Yarmouth (good bell-weather marginal seat), Huntingdon (how low can the Tory majority go without Major), any seat the LDs may lose (choose from Weston, Hereford, Shrewsbury, Brent E, Leicester S, N Norfolk et al) and how can we forget our Jody in Hartlepool…
Durham and Newc C for the NE Lab/LD fight
Yes, I’d forgotten that Lord Razzall actually does believe that the LDs can win everywhere. There isn’t a constituency in the land where everybody knows that the LibDems are the best places to beat Labour/Conservatives/Greens/UKIP/SNP/Respect/Plaid - delete as appropriate.
Zebidee
I think you question should be “can an MP without any councillors” win an election, as it makes not a jot of difference if she is a minister or not and if it where the case that strength/weakness in local government translated onto the Westminster stage then Labour would have been in a far poorer position in 2001… but it was not the case and if you don’t have councillors you still have activists, while I’m not familiar with Bolton’s CLPs it almost certain that Kelly will have sufficient people to do the work that will be needed. Then again on this rational you’ve argued the Liverpool Wavertree is doomed for Labour despite a 13,000 majority, so it pretty hard to take your argument seriously.
That said Rochdale is a seat that the LDs are likely to pickup, a targeted campaign around Manchester in Cheadle, Oldham East, Manchester Withington and Rochdale will allow the LDs to take the seat and cut Labour’s majority in Withington.
Islington South? Popular Labour incumbent retiring, can the LDs pick it up? I know others on this site know far more about it than I so there ought to be some lively discussion.
Watford, Shrewsbury and Hereford are interesting, as Marc Ed says.
Shrewsbury’s a goner for the LDs surely. Interesting who picks it up, Labour or Tories. More likely the latter, but I know someone who used to work with the candidate who says he is pretty dire ona personal level. Not sure whether tht will play out to the electorate.
I think Shrewsbury will go Tory. Marsden had a reasonably majority in 2001, when the LD vote share halved compared to 1997. It’s hard not to see those voters going back now, so this should be a pretty dramatic illustration of tactical unwind… vote shares around Con 38/ Lab 30/ LD 27?
Does anyone have any knowledge or opinions on Edwina Curries old seat in Derbyshire South. She became quite unpopular in the 90’s but there has been a lot of Tory activity in the last few months and not much from Labour. Any chance of a Tory victory?
It needs a pretty big swing… just looking at the numbers now: I would have thought Currie had a bit of a personal vote, but she was absolutely thumped in 1997.
Steve I agree with you on Shrewsbury I don’t think it’s a lost cause for Labour, but it will probably fall to the Tories. If anything Marsden will have hurt the LDs in the seat, of all the people who might have defected to the LDs over Iraq why such oddball would I don’t know.
If he’s regarded as such an oddball, why did Marsden’s vote share increase 8% from 1997 to 2001 while the LDs’ declined by 12%? A lot of LDs must have switched to him in 2001: given subsequent history, is that really going to be transferrable to another Labour candidate?
Ben’s “if you don’t have councillors you still have activists,” obviously reflects a rather more altruistic impression of CLPs than mine. The only deliverers that Labour has left in certain areas (they daren’t canvass!) are the families and close friends of the councillors. If they are not in office or ‘in with a shot’ they just are not seen on the streets.
Totnes is the seat Roger Knapman is contesting. The three way marginals F and C, Bristol W, Colne V, Bolton W, Leeds NW look interesting. Wales I’d say Monmouth but Mark Cymru is the expert there.
What about the new Nithsdale etc. seat… good SNP, Tory fight.
book value
Marsden is the man who famously published poetry in the spectator which read…
“Breasts rising as I feel the urge to bite.
Eyes stalking its prey, she’s relishing the fight”
…added to this he alleged he had been physically bullied by Whips which was never substantiated.
He spent his first term backing every government bill and posing for every photo with a minister and then he suddenly started rebelling after being re-elected and then defected to the LDs.
And to cape it all an American intern had to be moved from his office after allegations of sexual harassment.
..strikes me as a pretty odd character, I doubt that the swings in 2001 where much more than the effects of turnout and tactical voting that could be seen anywhere he was such a non-entity prior to 2001 that I doubt that he was personally a factor in winning votes from 97 LD voters.
“they daren’t canvass!” what are you on about! Labour still canvass extensively even in areas where they have lost wards in local government elections… councillors are but a small part of the Labour Party there are tens of thousands of Labour activists up and down the country who will go out and fight tooth and nail for the Party to think that only councillors and their friends and families canvass for Labour seems pretty absurd IMHO.
Going way back to point 7, the seat where Knapman is standing is Totnes in South Devon and it will be interesting as it is likely to be among UKIP’s best results and may determine it LD/Con (although granted some on this site contend the Westcountry is different in that UKIP hurt LD as much as Con).
I would have thought it would be interesting to get a prediction simply on the UKIP vote - below 5%, 5-10%, 10-15% or 15%+.
The Kilroy result may be more interesting in terms of getting a UKIP element, but in the absence of an indication of where he is standing, if at all, it may be silly.
Once we know how many candidates they’re putting up, it would be interesting to get a prediction on the average vote for Respect, BNP, UKIP and the Greens.
We should also have one prediction for Northern Ireland - say Upper Bann.
As some one who clearly does know Dewsbury. It will be a seat to watch. Labour and tories have both selected Asian candidates whilst Ann Taylor is retiring next time. The Liberal Democrats have a white candidate plus the key factor is who much of the Traditional working class Labour vote will switch straight to the BNP. In wards like Thornhill they have been getting over 20%. If this occurs in May the Tories are in with a real chance of taking the seat.
The same is true of a number of Yorkshire/Lancashire seats. Hear in the Labour heartlands Blair is loathed and the Labour party is seen as no longer Labour ie looking after the white working class. These people would rather chop their right hand off than vote Conservative. Some will go to the Lib Dems, some will stay at home but a sizeable chunk will go to the BNP and this could tip the election to the Tories advantage.
Somerton and Frome is a very close Lib Dem held seat which people often forget. Tories control council- took it back in 2003 from Lib Dems- but an MP there with personal vote. I think Guildford will be an interesting seat- as will neighbouring Romsey for the Lib Dems.
I also think that Bristol West is about the best way of seeing how the three parties manage in a head to head campaign. It was so very close in 2001.
As for Marsden’s seat- as has been said, he is gone. Keech may be close. I think Cheedle may be another Torbay. Speaking of Torbay- I expect a sizable swing to the tories due to a VERY unpopular Lib Dem council.
Roll on May! (or is it March, or feb or june?)
Re 26 The new Galloway & Upper Nithsdale is shaping up to be a Con/Lab fight, Labour MP for the old Dumfries seat is standing there. The best SNP/Con fight will probably be in the new Angus seat. The best Lab/SNP seat is Dundee East.
Mark Goodair
I’m afraid your living in cloud-cookoo-land if you think the Tories are in with a shot in Dewsbury or any other of the kind of Labour seats you mention, not only is the party in a healthy position in terms of it’s majority and candidate, but the area saw some of the least worst (“best” is not a word that could ever be used in this situation) results for Labour in both 2003 and 2004. Dewsbury is not going anywhere nor will there be any Conservative breakthrough in these seats, what I will grant is that the BNP will no doubt do as well if not better than they did in 2001… and no doubt in Dewsbury with Malik as the candidate some Labour voters will no doubt vote BNP but he should hold the seat comfortably.
Tim- I don’t think Guildford and Romsey are neighbouring! Also Torbay council has finally had some good news with it being upgraded in the latest audit. I now think Adrian Sanders will survive and LDs may even be back in the Totnes race, particularly if UKIP help out.
Monmouth is only interesting in the sense that if the Tories dont win it then they will win very few seats….I am convinced council tax is a key issue in Wales (hits the grey vote hard) and the Assembly is throwing money at Monmouthshire to alleviate the worst of the rebanding horror…frankly the Tory should win by a mile….the really good thing about that is that the Tory candidate is the assembly member and who is probably one of the biggest barriers to Plaid/Lib/con cooperation in the assembly…so if he wins and stands down from the assembly after 2003 things could be very interesting here….:)
Conwy is an interesting seat (and its where I live) Tory Lib marginal in the 80s Plaid Lab marginal in the assembly now held by Labour MP…chattering classes element and student population plus a small but possibly significant muslim population in Bangor….will be interesting to see what happens…
Other seats in wales to watch are Pembroke sitting Lab MP quitting, little Lab organisation left I am told…should go tory but on the face of it needs a big swing….
Cardiff North if the Tories win labour will be getting a good kicking in Wales…..(it will declare early on the night so will be good indicator)
In England Colne Valley I think is very interesting….also haltemprice where UKip are very well organised and have money etc….Bolton West I agree might throwup a strange result (is there a muslim population there?)
Sounds like Jody Dunn’s poetry Ben! But the LD vote going from 25% in 1997 to 13% in 2001 is, I would say, a lot more than “could be observed anywhere”.
Mike, this is obviously debatable enought to be a candidate for the list!
Ben’s rosy view of Labour organisation is somewhat at odds with that of the former minster, Peter Kilfoyle, who wrote this devastating piece in the Guardian in the summer.
How about predicting who comes 2nd in the popular vote in Scotland ?
Last time it was SNP 20%, LD 16%, Con 15%.
SNP optimists will no doubt plump for Labour
Mike, in all fairness it suites Peter Kilfoyle to overstate any dip in membership as it supports his belief that Blair is nothing but an impediment for Labour. I can give you an accurate impression from the seats I know and from the impression I get nationally, and I wouldn’t call it rosy the best I have said is that in terms of numbers it is adequate for the jobs which need doing. I wouldn’t trust Kilfoyle to tell me about the state of the Labour Party anymore than I would trust McCartney, advocating that Blair is worse than Thatcher does compromise one observations about the state of the Labour party and more importantly suggest that your article is written with an “agenda” in mind.
Jon- as far as I know- its all over in that general direction! Sorry for getting it wrong.
Didn’t know about the council being upgraded in Torbay. Also agree about Totnes- must surely be one of UKIP’s top targets, and the Lib Dem seems a decent enough candidate.
Also- piece in the Indy about Post Offices in Eastbourne- a petition of 4000 signing a campaign the Lib Dems are very involved with. Looking at the LD candidate’s website he seems very active. Anyone know more?
Do you know anything about South Derbyshire Ben?
You’d be surprised.
And I reiterate the Conservatives WILL NOT win a single one of the seats that you mention nor will Malik be defeated in Dewsbury or even come close…
Sorry Misinterpreted you there… what do you want to know about South Derbyshire?
Just live there and saw the Tories campaigning in the town centre a few weeks ago. They seem quite active although a fair few of their leaflets were being thrown on the floor.
Re. 25, I agree Ben. Where I live, we even have non-members who volunteer for leafletting (anc acting as tellers) at election time.
You’re welcome to include Broxtowe if you want at least two of us on the spot, as a classic Middle England seat (always Tory up to 1997) and one which swung further in 2001 but is still the top Tory target in Notts. We should soon know Kilroy’s intentions, by the way, but that’s thought likely to be either Ashfield or Erewash, both my neighbours.
For what it’s worth, the picture in my patch as far as Labour activists go is somewhere between Ben’s and zebidee’s - we have fewer than we used to, but more than either the Tories or the LibDems, both of whom seem only able to deliver in certain wards. I do a couple of hours on doorsteps every Sunday afternoon and have done for 7 years (the idea is that everyone gets the offer of a visit at least once in each Parliament), and virtually never encounter any hostility.
Nick Palmer MP
Richard the same happens in Leicester we get former members who still help out with leafleting etc…
We don’t often discuss the politics of Northern Ireland here, but this election may well see the total eclipse of the SDLP with the retirement of John Hume and the near obliteration of the UUP (with the probable exceptions of North Down and Belfast South) at the hands of Sinn Fein and the DUP respectively. I would agree with Sean that David Trimble’s Upper Bann seat will be the bellweather seat here.
In Scotland Inverness is probably the hardest to call with both the LDs and Nationalists battling to establish themselves as challengers to Labour in a highland seat. Edinburgh South may also be interesting with a similar situation between the LDs and the Tories in relation to the Labour incumbent. However, how important are three-way battles given that there are relatively few. Perhaps we should be looking at examples of Lab/Con, Lab/SNP and Lab/LD marginals. The same applies in Wales and the regions of England.
My Welsh friend Mark has covered Wales and there have been various suggestions re England. Perhaps we can look at ensuring we have a good representation of the different types of battles in each area.
Finally, with regard to Torbay, I don’t think that the popularity of the local council will make much difference. The two previous administrations - one LD, one Tory - were both deeply unpopular and suffered huge electoral defeats but didn’t impact on the parliamentary
elections during the same period. Similarly the people of Richmond ended twenty years of LD rule of the local council in 2002, but it hadn’t stopped them returning the local LD MPs with substantially increased majorities the previous year. Most MPs are very good at running against the local council even if its run by their own party!
Mike,
Sorry, just re-read your initial comments. Hadn’t realised you were only looking for a handful of seats for you competition.
NE Milton Keynes must be a classic Lib dem unwind seat. Locally 25 Lib Dem Cllrs to Lab 3 and Tory 2, but in 2004 Tories came from 500+ Votes behind to miss several seats by just double figures, as few as 2 votes in one ward.
In last General election it was Lab 42% Con 38% and Libs just 17%. Well known locally if less than dynamic sitting MP Brian White, very dynamic locally based Con candidate in Mark Lancaster who seems to be in the press every week and the Lib Dems seem to have given up already, despite having local councilors who have stood for parliament before they’ve selected a candidate in Jane Carr who’s from miles away, very un Lib Dem like.
Generally felt Lab only got in by Lib votes, will they do it again in a typical new labour modern city with very high population turnover?
Dean - I sort of agree that success on the council won’t in fact deliver the MP, however I don’t believe it’s a bad indicator. Probably the best bet is to be the principal opposition to a dodgy council run by your opponents. My feeling is there are many poisoned chalices in Local Government but sod all in the way of Holy Grails.
Torbay had made a lot of unnecessary enemies… but it looks like the worst is over now.
Jon,
You’re right, opposition on the council is the best scenario, but it is hardly decisive. Note how Labour MPs in Liverpool ran against the then Labour controlled council in Liverpool in the 80s. Sadly from our perspective as LDs they seemed to survive despite a background of probably the worst run council in the UK.
Don’t forget that the Eastern Region will be exciting. Welwyn Hatfield, Hemel Hempstead, Braintree and Peterborough are very probable Conservative gains next May.
I think I should perhaps explain that Bethnal Green prediction! I honestly think it could be the biggest shock of the night, its quite simple- the Tories won their first seat on Tower Hamlets EVER (a modest revival surely!) whilst RESPECT won the other by-election from Labour. Quite frankly even the Labout party admits they are in trouble, Oona King will get 30% of the vote next time. Hardly shocking! Although I think RESPECT will not win outright they will allow the Conservatives to slip through the middle on about 30 odd percent. Could be very, very interesting. If you want to bet on a shock next election, maybe this could be the one? Being a Blair Babe in this diverse seat as well voting for the war (and not being Muslim) will not help King in the slightest. Did’nt she have the second worst result in the country in 1997? Im not saying a Con victory is certain (or even greater than, say, 40%) but its possible.
Besides having a Con MP in one of the poorest areas of the city (even europe?) would be ironic in the extreme. Who said that a Monkey with a blue roset would win in Southgate no matter how well Labour did?
Anything to be controversial!
I see your logic but I think Labour will be able to knock the Respect down to survivable levels by pointing out exactly the sort of character Galloway is. Though the Tories are in second place in the seat, the party supported the war, so the anti-Oona swing will split three ways, and I reckon, keep her in.
There is a method in my madness, honest! The Con vote INCREASED in 1997 albeit by 1% or so, last time it increased by 4% against a London electoral backdrop where the Con vote fell- one of only 2 places (along with Scotland) where the Con vote fell in 2001. If, say, it increased by 6-7% in May, which is perfectly possible then Labour is in severe trouble. Im hardly saying that similar Labour seats with a similar sized majority over the Cons are going to fall, but this seat if very different! George Galloway will pick up a lot of votes, that is agreed, though it could result in a huge shock for the country, the constituents and the Conservatives!
Milton Keynes NE is interesting in that a large chunk of it isn’t Milton Keynes at all, but the rural villages of North Bucks. Also many of the so-called estates in the constituency are actually very upmarket extensions of existing villages. I’d be very surprised if the Tories didn’t win it.
Also worth watching is Milton Keynes SW, Labour have a 7000 majority here, being the seat containing the earlier built (and much poorer) estates and also the old industrial towns of Bletchley and Wolverton. But there has been much development on the Western flank of the town (and Milton Keynes is a town no matter how much they may try and tell you it’s a city!) in the last few years, which is again quite upmarket and should make it more marginal.
Mike - I will enter but unfortunately being an enthusiastic amateur in comparison to some(if not all)of the posters I will have to spend some time researching the constituencies.Where the hell is Colne Valley(see what I mean) - Upper Bann? Surely it must be possible to give me 2 extra points just for entering?Happy New Year.
“Choose one from ICM, Mori, NOP, CA, or YouGov”
Surely “CR” and “,Yougov or Populus”
I think Mike’s forecast is just to give Ben some sort of seizure?
The problem about the competition is that it is all recorded - there for everybody to check back to on May 6. There is no hiding place.
What I love about Ben is that he is so brave and so unequivocal. Maybe because I’m older but I always put some weasel words into my observations or raise them as a question rather than something that’s absolute. Thus I might have been bullish about the LDs’ prospects at Hartlepool but I never said for certain that they would win.
But with Ben he is so certain. The problem with this competition is that we’ve got to commit ourselves in the same way that Ben has been doing here for months.
My forecasts are entirely in line with what I’ve been arguing here for months. The polls are over-stating the Lab-Con margin and the UNS seat formula will not work in the same way because of special factors in the 2001 result.
“The problem about the competition is that it is all recorded - there for everybody to check back to on May 6. There is no hiding place.”
But you can edit your own comments Mike
I thought you said yesterday that Labour losing the popular vote was “a possibility rather than a probability”? But then there is probably still an argument that by predicting well off what everyone else does, you’re more likely to win the competition - interesting!
Re 36:
Cymru Mark basically has Wales covered:
Bleanau Gwent: interesting potential here. Peter Law Labour AM for the constituency has made some noises about standing as an Independent against women only shortlist PPC. Has a high profile and popular in the seat.
Monmouth: Lab’s base collapsed in the seat, David Davies will win by anything up to 5,000 majority. LDs targeted Lab at council elections and where they did Lab vote collapsed. LDs on verge of selecting well known and high profile PPC from south of the constituency - just where there are a lot of Lab votes. This move will probably be the final nail in the coffin for Lab attempt to hold the seat. In any case, they only held it last time by busing in students form London and Swansea last time. Don’t see the students getting on the bus this time some how.
Cardiff North: watch out for this one - hunch Tories might nab it with high profile Tory PPC currently in the assembly who comes across well on TV.
Brecon & Radnor: LD to hold with increased majority. LDs were worried whether or not they could hold the seat, however they built up the organisation form the last GE - look at the last assembly result, Kirsty Williams not called Xena ‘I cut through the opposition’ for nothing.
Vale of Glamorgan: tough call - all depends on turnout in Barry. Jane Hutt is the AM and minister for health - Labour’s big weak spot in Wales, reckon this will damage Lab here. Too close to call.
Ynys Mon - PC gain for sure. Lab is toast.
Clwyd West - another seat that should be in the bag for the Tories, though local information thankfully received.
Pembrokeshire Preseli: if Cons don’t manage to swing this one, they’ll end up only taking one seat in Wales, Monmouth.
Llanelli - Denzil Davies stepping down? If so, personal votes goes and I just wonder what will happen. Lab will hang on, but seat will continue to become more and more a Lab/PC marginal. Lot of people moved in from Swansea due to house prices, etc.
Ceredigion: PC hold - though LD will get decent swing across and squeeze Con, Lab, etc.
What will be important to watch here is who comes second in a range of seats. LDs or Plaid likely to gain second places such as Swansea West, Cardiff West, Cardiff South, Wrexham, Swansea East, Merthyr, Newport East, Bridgend - basically Tories getting squeezed out of the race. Either they will be coming first or no where. No real good long term prospects in Wales for the party.
As regards seats in England:
Hereford: Paul Keetch to lose by large margin. Even LD voting friends are loathed to vote for the man. However, ‘you’ve got to go there to come back’, and with boundary changes after the GE making Hereford a largely urban ‘Hereford & Ross-on-Wye’ seat, LD to gain back after rebuilding organisation and favourable boundary changes.
Bristol West: LD gain, probably in the bag, the latest buzz is that LDs sending people into Bristol E and NW in preparation for next GE and favourable boundary changes. Likewise Northavon ‘ultra safe’ and sending car loads into Bristol NW and E to build for future gains.
Weston Super mere: LD loss. Con gain by small margin. Strange as it may seem, expect big swing form Con to LD in neighbouring Woodspring (Liam Fox). Regional polls good for LD in Bristol/Avon area, bad for Tories.
Cheltenham: expect a potential shock gain for Tories. Local LDs hell bent on selecting a ‘local’ candidate when it was clear that the local members were spilt between local personalities. Messy end to selection contest there will not help morale. Information says local LDs would have been better selecting ‘best’ applicant from outside the town to unite the local membership. Vanessa Gearson will be next MP if LDs don’t pull their socks up and sort out local quarrels.
Worcestershire West: hunch LDs will make it on their third attempt.
Wantage: unbelievable as it may seem, potential for LDs to jump form third to first and take the seat. Local contacts say LDs working over the area heavily especially in Didcot, source of majority of Lab vote in the constituency.
Forest of Dean: like Monmouth in many respects but without the sophistication. Con candidate high profile, Lab have new candidate from women only shortlist and Cons to take seat by a majority of about 3,000.
Gloucester: Cons to gain, as local LDs working seat hard and damaging Labour.
Stroud: Another Gloucestershire gain. This county will be good for Tories in 2005. Tactical unwind and active Green Party presence will take votes form Lab to hand in to Cons.
Saying that: Tewkesbury, Cons will hold majority as last time, with LDs coming through to challenge in second place. Lab will drop back significantly. Watch out for this being LD/Con marginal in 2009/2010.
Wiltshire North: Con to hold, but majority under 1,000. Boundary changes see new urban seat of ‘Chippenham’ created. Contacts say concentrating on winning wards in ‘new seats’ for gains in 2009/10.
Westbury: Local Tories worried about good PPC for LDs. However, large rural votes and will remain Con with reduced majority/swing to LDs. Boundary changes make this LD marginal next time around in 2009/10 with ‘Wiltshire South West’ becoming a tight Con/LD majority.
Oxford East: expect Lab collapse due to increased Green & LD vote. Close one here – Lab to hold, just, with LDs jumping into second place.
Vino,
Colne Valley is in West Yorkshire. Its the rural bit of Kirklees MBC basically “Last of the Summer Wine” Country. Its one of the few seats in the country that been both Liberal, Tory & Labour in the last 25 years.
What is it that I am missing about Bristol W? OK, the LDs moved from second to first last time but they gained less than 1% on their vote share - what has happened to allow them to overhaul a 4,400 majority this time?
To 63 - BV - Yes I can edit my own comments but there are hundreds of people like you who will come down on me like a ton of bricks if I was to change my predictions.
Nice summary Borderboi - but note that in Oxford East LDs were in 2nd place in 2001.
It’s interesting how most entrants are predicting Labour majorities that are much less than the Baxter uniform national swing would suggest for the vote margins they predict. At 5% the Baxter’s projection is a 110-120 seat majority.
My projection - majority and individual seats - is almost exactly in line with the Baxter computation on CON 34.5: LAB 33.5: LD 23 which gives LD gains in Bristol & Inverness and Tory gains at Colne Valley & St Albans as well as the Ynys Mons PC gain. Not included are Cambridge and Bethnal Green & Bow.
Re: 64. Is Mike arguing that the Tories are going to win the popular vote? IMHO (to quote Ben at his best) it is a possibility, but not a a very big one. The Conservative vote appears to be static. They suffered (rightly or wrongly) so much discredit during the mid / late 90s and have essentially lost a generation’s support (maybe more), which is why, even when Labour are fighting a defensive campaign, the Cons are not making any particular headway in the polls.
I have often argued on this site that the next election (as with 2001) becomes about differentials - it seems that the remaining Tory voters are the most motivated to actually vote, and this has kept them in the game to this point - in 2001 they appeared to gain 1% when really their vote just slipped by slightly less than Labour. A look at raw polling data shows that there are greater numbers than ever who are not committed to any party. If, as in the US, the next election is a bloody battle fought around issues such as the war, id cards law and order, the Tories are in danger of being sidelined as their positions are not distinctive enough from Labour on these issues. A bitter campaign in the US saw turnouts driven up on both sides of the issue, which would suit both Labour and the Lib Dems, but not the Tories.
They are unlikely also to be able sneak through the middle, because the differential will be against them in this scenario, as their vote will remain roughly the same in numbers, whilst the other two will increase. It may help them to hold on to some seats where a squeeze is needed by the challenging party.
I predict, therefore that the Con vote will probably remain about static again, or may be even down a percent or 2.
And I would really like to present the Tony Blair mug to Ben.
For a description - http://www.politicos.co.uk/item.jsp?ID=3572
That wouldn’t show me a picture unfortunately.
For balance, there ought to be a Charles Kennedy tankard whose nose goes redder as you fill it with more beer - or a Michael Howard wine glass with growing vampire teeth.
Re 66 and the fickleness of Colne Valley… Foggy was obviously a Tory, Compo Labour (but a bugger to get to the polling station) and dear old Clegg probably voted for all of them in his time…
Votes for Conservatives, 1987 13.8m, 1992 14.1m, 1997 9.6m, 2001 8.4m
Votes for Labour, 1987 10.0m, 1992 11.6m, 1997 13.5m, 2001 10.7m
Votes for Liberal Dem, 1987 7.3m, 1992 6.0m, 1997 5.2m, 2001 4.8m
Labour got a New Labour boost in 1997 but appears to be stuck on 10m. Doubt they will get more votes in 2004. Big question is can the Tory party energise voters to come out for them? Their support has sat at home for 2 elections. The election may well depend on how well the Tories perform on the streets. For Lib Dems the policy of focus may win them more seats but at the loss of overall votes. This makes them an unpredicatble swing factor.
Re Ynys Mon my heart sank when I saw this as the welsh seat….I am surprised most people are saying Plaid will win its a seat that stays with the incumbant in most elections…there will have to be a serious anti-labour mood….there will be an independent candidate who will appeal to tory voting farmers who might other wise be persuaded to vote plaid….of course I have said we will win but it will be a bigger achievement that winning it was in the first place..
borderboi
I forgot about Bleanau Gwent:
Llanelli will be tight but Plaid not quite strong enough to take it….
Swansea west is an interesting seat…lots of chattering class and public sector middle class….some interesting local issues it wont change hands this time but expect labour to be down and Plaid Lib and Tory to be up a bit…
Jono is rather too reliant, in my view, on the idea that there are static blocks of Tory and Labour voters who either vote or don’t at each election.
It is seductive but wrong to deduce from his figures that Labour people just turned out more consistently (with a slight upsurge of interest in 1997) while the Tories have larger numbers of supporters generally but have failed to energise them recently. I think this is based on a view that the 10 million-ish people who voted Labour in 2001 are more or less the same people as voted for them in 1987.
In fact, I believe, a huge number of people who used to think of themselves as broadly Tory in the 1980s and early 90s think of themselves as broadly Labour (and some as Lib Dem) now. The Labour vote in 1997 and 2001 consisted partly of people who voted Labour in 1987 and 1992 but, crucially, a large minority was made up of ex-Tories (and some ex-Lib Dem). That change is masked by the fact that a lot of people who voted Labour in 1987 and 1992 didn’t vote in 1997 and 2001 (and a lot of Tories and Lib Dems didn’t either). There is no evidence I have seen that declining turnout affected Labour less than other parties - indeed Tory/Lib Dem marginals where there is no Labour presence to speak of have seen less dramatic falls in turnout than strong Labour areas.
It is the former issue (getting people to see themselves as Tory again) is the real problem which has not been addressed. Energising the core vote to get of their arses and vote - while obviously important - will not turn the clock back to 1987 or 1992.
Hi I am new to this excellent site!
I have posted my predictions but there is alternative scenario If RKS becomes leader of UKIP or leads another anti-EU populist party at the election
IMO - The 2005 General Election will see a slightly increased turnout on 2001 - Approx 28.5 million
Labour - Will get between 9 and 9.5 million votes, down on 2001.
Conservatives - Will get 6.6 million
Lib Dems - 5.5 million
UKIP/RKS Populist party - 5.5 million
Others inc Nationalist/Respect - 1.5 million
I am sure many of your posters will think that I have lost the plot regarding RKS but in an election in which Labour is pretty nailed on for victory, tt’s hardest job will be to gets its vote out. Which it wont do. As for the Tories they are just waiting for a ‘good kicking’ and would get it with a Populist party competing against it. As for the Lib Dems would also lose out from the RKS phenomenon becuse potest voters would have somewhere else to go.
Regards
John
Just a bit of fun for New Years Eve
Well, a result on those lines really would break the mould of British politics.
Indeed Sean!
Whether one wants to see it or not? There is a definite mood in the country for such a result. The 2005 General Election could hold some shocks yet.
UKIP/RKS 5.5 million votes. I wish I was your bookmaker John.
John - the latest spread on Spreadfair for UKIP is 0.6 - 1.1. So for a very modest outlay and little risk you could clean up if your prediction was right. Say they got 32 seats you would be risking a maximum of £110 in order to win more than £3,000. If RKS stood and UKIP only got one seat your loss would be just £10. If they got 52 seats your profit would be more than £5,000. For every seat above 1.1 you win your stake level of £100.
If you open an account with them we get a small commission that goes towards defraying the costs of the site.
James, good point at 77. Anecdotal evidence of that long-term shift over from Tory to Labour,
My mum, first election 1970, voted Tory except for Feb 1974 (Liberal), wavered in 1992 but voted Tory in the end, voted Labour in 1997, voted Lib Dem in Tiverton & Honiton in 2001 in exchange for a Lib Dem voting Labour in South Dorset and regards herself as certain Labour voter for 2005 in Mid Norfolk.
My nan, first election in 1950, always voted Tory until 1997 when she voted Lib Dem (because she detested the Tories, but couldn’t bring herself to vote Labour), voted Lib Dem again in 2001 and is now looking to vote Labour next time (although that’s partly a personal vote for John Denham in Southampton Itchen as she thinks he’s a good constituency MP)
For the Tories to have a serious chance of winning again they have to bring people like my mum and nan back on board.
I’m surprised no-one’s mentioned Dunbartonshire East as a seat to watch in Scotland: a notional three-way marginal (Lab/LD/Con - currently local council representation is LD 12, Lab 4, Con 3), it’s now Scotland’s most middle-class seat. I reckon it’ll be more interesting than Inverness, where I suspect a fair bit of the notional Lib Dem support was personal support for Kennedy in the ex-Ross bits of the seat. Aberdeen South and Edinburgh South will also both be interesting.
In Northern Ireland, Fermanagh & South Tyrone will be a difficult one to call: much will depend on whether there will be a sole unionist candidate there. If there is, (s)he’ll win. If there isn’t, Sinn Fein will hold it.
BV Bristol West has LD momentum, tonnes of students and a fair bit of GMW. Plus the fact that the LDs are the only party showing a favourably swing at the national level.
Re 64 Is the LibDem is Westbury so good? He seems to have blundered by abandoning Watford - heavily tipped on this site. Also he is up against a well regarded MP - anti war but served in Iraq, doctor etc, a steady string of byelections have seen teh Conservatives thrash the LibDems and of course they butchered them in the local elections. I predict a comfortable Tory win. Surely LibDems with sense will be in Somerton and Frome and Wiltshire North. Bristol West LibDem candidate is weak and has zero press coverage. Labour are far from out of the race and will no doubt move troops from South, East and North West to help the popular Valerie Davey.
Re 84. The point about Fermanagh and S Tyrone also applies to other NI seats - difficult to predict before close of nominations due to the possibility of last minute electoral pacts. That said, I think SF could just about hold Fermanagh and S Tyrone against a single Unionist candidate with around 45% and SDLP falling to below 10%.
Lorcan I think you are right about Fermanagh & S Tyrone. Also, I don’t think the SDLP can rely on anything apart from South Down this time.
With Cardiff Central in the bag for the Lib Dems, expect them to put a lot of effort into Cardiff South and Penarth. They gained five council seats in June and were only 120 votes from picking up a further 2. I suspect they will come a close second this time.
Cant contribute to all the comments because I dont know.
However I will say something about theplaces I do know (like where I live)
before I must say the teenage Blair groupies are as annoying as the odd young men that used to follow Margaret Thatcher, look at each other and intone indeed in a meaningful voice. Sorry kids actually get out of “conference” find some real people and have a bucket of cold sick poured all over you.
So I come to Bethnal Green and Bow where dear Oona has had to pay damages to Galloway for repeating a twenty year old libel in a press release to bengali newspapers. In the meantime the local paper is flooded with bizarre pro - Oona letters that can be traced back to researchers to Labour MPs. the best origante from one Stephen Mutton whose day job is working for the supremely independent minded r Phyllis Starkey. In fact his letters are about as original and thoughtful as her contributions to Parliament.
The key to Bethnal Green and Bow is the Conservative and Lib Dem votes.
the Conservatives are running the same bengali businessman who fought the seat last time. However he has little appeal outside of Brick Lane (where he is extremely well known).
He came a reasonable second (Oona has the lowest Labour majority in the east end) however his powerbase is amongst the bengali voters and they could easily go elsewhere.
remember youare dealing with a community that never watches Newsnight, has never heard of the Fabian Society or Prospect and rarely studies the more informed comments about Galloway in the Sun.
Secondly the Lib dems have quietly ditched their Asian (Pakistani) candidate, probably to select a white candidate who will not be competing for the Bengali vote but will provide a decent recepticle for those who find Oona, irritating.
Galloway will have massive leads in at least three wards (Spitalfields and Banglatown, Whitechapel and St Dunstan’s and Stepney Green) and will easily carry two more.
Labour are again pretending locally that they are teh anti war party. beleive itor not they actually said this in leaflets in the two recent by elections in which they were defeated, and Oona (bless her) is already pretending only she can beat the BNP (who probably wont stand)
The Tower Hamlets Labour arty depends on the councillors to deliver votes and already bengali Labour councillors are looking forward to the possibility of being able to select Oona’s successor from amongst their number.
few of them will lift a hand, either in this seat or Poplar and Canning Town, although Fireman Jim has the great advantage of teh huge Labour vote in his Newham wards.
If galloway can attract votes as he did in the European election (and remember Oona was not on the ballot) then he is home and dry.
Finally do not forget Barking where Margaret Hodge is marginally les popular than Oona, if Griffin stands in that constituency then lord help east London.
“Sorry kids actually get out of “conference” find some real people and have a bucket of cold sick poured all over you.”
Sorry that’s a bit uncalled for… I’m not a Blair groupie in anyway but I am a student (well in-between courses) and I am active within the Labour Party and yes I do meet “real people” it doesn’t get much more real than Eyres Monsel or Spinney Hill wards in Leicester and most people are interested in common sense solutions to problems and not ideological dogma, and with some exceptions I’m pretty content with the government’s program and its record thus far. Also on the subject of Thatcher (here I speak as someone from a family of County D miners) she still won three landslides, nauseating “fanboys” or not.
As for Bethnal Green, I think its fair to say that anything could happen, but I think Labour will ekk it out, that said the local council is up for election in May 2005 and what ever happens there are going to be a significant number of “Respect” councillors across the east end and potentially a number of others else where in London and perhaps in areas with large Muslim populations in other cities.
PS: I think we’re supposed to keep this thread clear for the predictions, the thread bellow is the best place for discussion on this topic.
Re 85. Tony, I’m not really sure that your claim that the Tories ‘butchered’ the LDs at the last local elections in West Wiltshire holds much water. They did lose six seats (five of them by margins of forty votes or fewer), but still ended up tied with the Tories on nineteen seats each.
Anyone got any news on some of the battleground Midland seats? What about Warwick, Tamworth, Burton, Edgbaston, Redditch, Wolverhampton SE? The consensus seems to be that its all over for Keetch in Hereford, and Andy King in Rugby so I can count those ones out. The of course there are the long shots, Coventry South, Hall Green, Nuneaton. Again any news would be much appreciated as I’m trying to build a definitive analysis for this area and there might be some info I’ve missed! Also I’d be interested in overall predictions for these seats and see how they compare with my inital view.
Ta!
Living on the Burton/South Derbyshire border, I can tell you that the local Burton Mail paper seems to be favouring the Labour party with its press coverage. The Tories don’t seem to be able to get in at all. The Labour MPs for Burton and South Derbyshire are not all that popular from what I hear. Both seats are a mixture of rural villages and the main towns of Burton and Swadlincote. The town votes will swing the election either way.
Hi Jon W, I grew up in Edgbaston and was a Labour activist there for a time in the mid-90s. I don’t have a perfect handle on what’s happening now, but some thoughts. Labour are down to one councillor out of 12, with all the others Tories, though going from memory that is more or less the same position as 2001 when Labour pretty much matched their 1997 result.
Gisela Stuart made some unwisely pro-Bush remarks at the time of the US elections, and if I was running the LD campaign I would run quite heavily with those - however the LDs are very weak in this part of Birmingham, and what GMW vote there is (it’s actually much more of a C1/2 seat than popular lore seems to have it) is used to sticking with Labour as the only way to beat the Tories.
Having said that, the Tories have wisely chosen a local councillor whose husband was also a councillor and Lord Mayor. I think Labour will hold it but see the majority down to 2,000 or so.
I suppose it’s too late to suggest another question! But what about nominations for seat with smallest gap between first and third place? Don’t know what “won” this in 2001, no doubt I’ll be enlightened shortly…
65 - Mark - Thanks
77 - John - Spot on!
I agree absolutely with you in regard to RKS but only if he becomes leader of UKIP or forms a Populist Party.
Not many on this site will agree with you but RKS has the potential to break the mould of British politics - and along with it the Tory Party and perhaps the Lib Dems
How popular is RKS in all reality. All he is really known for is hosting a quite dreadful talk show and not being all that keen on Arabs. Strikes me as a one trick pony without any real depth.
IA, it was Perth:
SNP 11,237
Con 11,189
Lab 9,638
Gap between 1st and 3rd: 1,599
I can send you a spreadsheet with it calculated and ranked for every seat, if you’re really interested!
I am surprised that DM Andy in 73 seems to think that the Tories are in trouble just because his family are now not voting Conservative. To give an example, my parents voted Labour in 97, Mum abstained and Dad voted LD in 01 and now they are both back to voting Tory again (and all this in a marginal Lab/Con seat).
The moral is that you can always find examples to back up your case. The Conservatives can win without your family Andy, just like Labour can win without mine.
Oh, and as for Brum Edge - they now have a new City seat initiative in big cities where PPCs campaign together and only get seats before the poll. However, the Tory PPC in the really winnable seats are already selected. From my knowledge of the seat the Tories will make this their only gain in Brum.
It’s also Perth in terms of vote share as well. I should say that my figures came from Pippa Norris’s constituency database so they exclude Northern Ireland. Perhaps unsurprisingly, 6 of the top 10 (in vote share terms) are in Scotland and one (Ynys Mon) is in Wales. Bristol W is 3rd (in terms of vote share).
Marc at 100 - I’m not saying that the Tories are in trouble because my family’s not voting Tory. Just meant to illustrate James’ earlier point that there are people who were tory voters in 1987 and 1992 who aren’t yet back with the Tories.
That’s fine, of course, but there are Labour voters who voted Labour in 83, 87 and 92 who aren’t voting for Blair. There are Tories who voted Tory forever who aren’t voting for Howard. There are even LDs who won’t vote for Kennedy. I’m surprised that needs stating.
ahh, but Marc, I doubt there’s a significant batch of 80s Labour voters that are voting for Howard this time compared with the number of 80s Tories who will be voting Labour.
98 - woody662 “How popular is RKS in all reality” All I can say is UKIP polled 2,660,000 votes in the June Euro Elections - all because of RKS who appeals to all voters from all parties - why? - because he is perceived to stand for common-sense against a world gone mad from PC and human rights
Further to 106 the irony is that RKS was created by the BBC - the most PC organisation I have encountered.
My initial view (which is, of course, open to revision) follows. Im quite happy to explain why, though maybe not tonight!!
Im personally betting that the Tories will take Edgbaston, Hall Green is out of contention and Plaskitt is far too popular in Warwick to be unseated (the seat I live in) although his majority could be in the 100’s. Wolverhampton SE as seen a fair bit of Tory activity of late (owing to the candidate perhaps?) and should go blue. It has a large rural element and traditional images of run down estates do not apply here. Tamworth had an awful set of results for Labour in May and could be a gain, Redditch im not too sure about…Labour regained control of the council (unexpected) and the Tories had an awful night there. It is a key marginal after all though. Im betting that if UKIP do well (say over 5%) there then Lumley will fail on her second attempt, which would be a blow for the party in the area. I will have to agree with woody on Burton, a target seat yes, but I think it will be too close to call.
Last post of 2004 for me - nothing substantive to say but I would like to wish everyone a Happy New Year. Should be an eventful 2005!
Regrading Westbury- it has actually been pushed up the target list as there was a 4% swing to the Lib Dems in the euro elections- the highest of any seat in the region with a tory MP. I wouldn’t say they are being smashed.
They have also won a string of byelections in Trowbridge- the town they need to be strong in, and also in their other strong hold of Bradford on Avon. I think you have read the situation wrong.
The problem is that the tory candidate is very centerist- anti war and not very outspoken and extreme. Also very little Lib Dem literature outside election time. I think it will be quite close (still a tory win) and I think that Wiltshire North is not the only winnable seat around (I don’t think that will be a gain either!).
I’m a pesemistic Lib Dem!
“Im personally betting that the Tories will take Edgbaston”
I’m afraid I disagree, the Conservatives within Brum have been doing poorly recently and have not benefited from their pact with the LDs on the council, local election results have been good for them within the seat but the same was true in both 1996 and 2000 and in neither case did it mean that Labour chances where hurt. As in 2001 Labour will no doubt do disproportionately better in their marginal seats and the same will be true here, the majority will be reduced but the seat will probably be held.
“Wolverhampton SE as seen a fair bit of Tory activity of late (owing to the candidate perhaps?) and should go blue.”
Labour dominates local government here and in stark contrast to most other places in the country did very well in the local elections earlier in the year. The seat will stay Labour easily IMHO. It will be interesting/ironic with a Asian conservative candidate in Powel’s old seat, but Labour won’t have to worry about anything here.
Regarding RKS and the Euro elections, firstly I don’t think you can put all 2.6 million votes down to him. UKIP already had a base and he merely generated publicity. I also wouldn’t compare the euro elections to the general election. It being a PR election meant the voters actually thought their vote would count where as a UKIP vote in the general election will make little difference. The Euro elections are little more than a european policy popularity vote
I still can’t find anyone I know who really like RKS though. No one knows his views on the economy, health, education ect. Thats what people vote about in a general election (as William Hauge found out). I can’t see any UKIP candidate (including RKS) gaining more than 3000 votes in any seat.
It’s also much harder for the non-main parties to command the coverage in a General Election campaign that they can get at the Euro election. The rules for the way the broadcasters operate during the campaign parcel out time for how much each party gets covered in the same proportion as the party political broadcasts that they are allocated.
Labour and the Tories get the same, the Lib Dems about 4/5ths and UKIP, the Greens, Respect and the BNP will have only a fraction.
In the printed media the Murdoch papers will be going with Blair as will the Mirror, the Express and Mail will line up with the Tories and the Guardian will be for the Lib Dems as might the Indy. There’s no place for UKIP to get a look in.
The party does not have an on the ground organisation or that much expertise.l
I doubt if UKIP will get more than 2-3% of the vote and only RK-S has any chance of winning a seat.
Mike
Not sure I agree with you that the Guardian will endorse the LDs, there is a powerful lobby within its staff that would balk at such a move while some of its writers have been scathing concerning Blair, this has not translated into being favourable towards the LDs (Hartlepool endorsement not withstanding) and the praise for many Labour programs such as the minimum wage, the new deal (both of which the LDs oppose) etc… makes an endorsement of the LDs by the paper unlikely. I think a very conditional endorsement of the Labour from the paper is likely, sabre rattling by the paper should be in the same category as the editor of the Daily Mail saying he might not back the Tories at the next election (that was back in October IIRC)
The Independent on the other hand is very likely to endorse the LDs IMHO, Steve Richards however was seemed very sceptical about this when he was asked about it on Radio 4, what is more the editor is on record as saying where Gordon Brown leader of the Labour Party he would be very likely to openly back Labour.
So Independent? probably, Guardian? Probably not
Ben, My information is otherwise. Evidently the tipping point for Alan Rusbridger, the editor, was Blair’s holidiay with Berlesconi. Quite what the form of the support will be I don’t know but there’s always Polly Toynbee to fall back on.
Have a Good New Year. Me - I’m on medication that stops me from drinking more than one glass of wine - but at least I’ve found a computer connected to the internet!
The point about the problems for smaller parties getting coverage remains.
Of course the LDs did not oppose the minimum wage, it came as part of the social chapter which funnily enough the LDs were keen to endorse, being good Europeans! I do wish the Labour party machine would stop making or twisting up LD policies - there is quite enough to be going on with for now. You will get caught out in the end.
Oh and a happy New Year - OK not that happy unless you are a LibDem supporter.
Jon
This from the “LDs in Business” website from March 2003…
“Responding to reports that the Government is to announce a 15.5% increase in the Minimum Wage over two years (an increase of 7.1% or 30p per hour this October, and a further increase of 7.5% or 35p per hour next year), Vince Cable MP, Liberal Democrat Shadow DTI Secretary, said:
“The consensus behind support for both the principle of the National Minimum Wage, and the considered way in which it has been handled so far under the Low Pay Commission, is now threatened.”
“Making a commitment to a 2-year deal, at levels significantly above inflation and at nearly double the current level of average earnings growth, sets a dangerous precedent at a time of almost unparalleled uncertainty.””
What is also interesting is that without the DTI (Which the LDs plan to scrap) how on earth would they enforce a minimum wage?
What is more the LDs are committed (as I said) to scrapping the New Deal, Child Trust Funds, Oppose giving pensioners £100 towards their Council Tax…
We don’t need to make stuff up, most LD policies are manner from heaven for any half decent leaflet writer with a passing knowledge of “tabloidspeak”
Just a few comments on some West Midland seats:
Birmingham Edgbaston: A difficult one to call, LD’s very weak there and will probably not run much of a campaign, that will help Labour a bit. Turnouts highly differential between local and general elections here, Conservative candidate well known but not well loved by people. Gisela Stuart quite well liked, but suffers from the Blair groupie tag. Too close to call.
Birmingham Hall Green: Conservatives seriously underperforming here in local elections, LDs active in two out of the three wards and now hold Hall Green ward massively, but will probably run minimal campaign. Steve McCabe is busy and has been outside election times since he was elected. A forlorn hope for the Tories, easy Labour hold. However, the boundary commissions new Hall Green may well be a completely different matter.
Birmingham Sparkbrook and Small Heath: Looks rock solid Labour on paper, but this is Britain’s most Muslim constituency. LD’s have taken the seat in last two local elections, last one with a turnout not far below general levels. Majority of councillors in seat Lib Dem and all active. LD’s have selected Muslim local councillor against Roger Godsiff. Respect have selected Selma Yacoob - who is a force to be reckoned with. Tories can be forgotten about, the seat hasn’t seen anything but a Tory freepost in 10 years. Likely to stay Labour, but if you wanted a real surprise on election night either the LDs or Respect could provide it. Oh and expect Postal Voting scandals from here.
Birmingham Yardley: 4% swing needed to send John Lemming to Westminster, Labour MP standing down. All councillors LD by massive majorities. BNP did disturbingly well in the Yardley wards in 2004. If it doesn’t happen this time, it never will. However, LD gain.
Stourbridge: Debra Shipley popular and well thought of, but much of the seat not natural Labour territory. Small but critical Muslim population in Lye and Wollescote. LD challenge in parts of Stourbridge fading as Tories get their strength back. At the moment, a very close Labour hold, but watch this space.
Wolverhampton South West: Rob Marris has settled himself in nicely, but it will be interesting to see how Sandeep Verma performs. LD’s not a factor here. I think on current polls, Marris will hold.
Nothing else in the Met county likely to be a factor, expect the LD’s to come a strong second in Birmingham Hodge Hill and Birmingham Perry Barr and to move into second in Birmingham Selly Oak and Birmingham Ladywood. Respect might poll decently in Ladywood, Hodge Hill as well.
Sorry to drag partisan point scoring onto the site Mike
“Right to Reply” and all…
On the Guardian, Toynbee is one of a significant number, Ashley, Aaronovitch, Hattersley (writes every week and while anti-Blair very anti-LD and pro-Labour party) being the most notable none would support an endorsement of the LDs and while many writers would not want to endorse Labour (Freeman springs to mind) this does not mean they favour the LDs, of course the paper may just not endorse at all.
Iain LDs won’t be close in Brum HH, Byrne will run away with it this time and deserves to the man is outstanding and the feeling in the seat is very good indeed. Reselecting Nokia… sorry I mean Nicola Davis was incredibly inept of the local LibDems IMHO either way Labour romp home in the seat (ditto Hartlepool), personally I think Byrne is looking at a majority in the 5-6,000 range while the LDs will probably stay in second thanks to some residual effect from the by-election.
Other than that I find myself in agreement with your assessment, if not your predictions
Happy New Year!
HAPPY NEW YEAR STEVE… AND THAT GOES FOR EVERYONE HERE EVEN ZEBIDEE
happy new year - even to tony’s cronies…
he won’t be in No 10 this time in 2006 so enjoy this one while the going is good.
“thankyoutony”…I’ll remember that when Labour have a 70-100 majority, that said by late 2006 Brown will no doubt be PM.
Ben - I’m ministering to a sick child whilst recovering from flu myself, what’s your excuse for being in on New Year’s Eve? I thought you were a student! Or are you the sensible family-man (or woman) member of the Ben quartet
Steve…
Staying with the folks and town (Leicester) is nearly ten miles away! thankfully my kid cousins have gone back home so I don’t have to hide in the quietest corners of the house anymore… Ah the computer my only link to the outside world at times such as this
And there was a House Party in Evington god damn it! near my old school as well
(for Leicester people that’s StPauls Comp on Specifield Road) … all in all a pretty poor new years.
Ah the joys of the countryside! Commiserations. Which side of Leics are you? I’m in S Notts and used to work in Leicester,
The Southside… Harborough/Oadby way