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Our Election Prediction Competition

December 30th, 2004

    Something more to argue about

New Year’s Eve and a good moment to launch our General Election Prediction Competition. Apart from the honour and the recognition from your peers we are hoping that a sponsor will provide a suitable prize. At the moment the best we have got is a colour picture of Ken Livingstone with his autograph on it and a Tony Blair mug where the nose grows as you pour in hot water.

  • Post your entries as a comment by the end of next Saturday - January 7 2005.
  • Please do not use the comments section here for anything other than entries. Discussion on the competition should be on the previous thread
  • Copy and paste the list below and type in your predictions accordingly.
  • Please include a valid email address and only one entry is allowed per person.
  • My decision on all matters relating to the competition is final.

    • 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. Fifteen points for getting it right reducing by one point either side for each seat off target.

    2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote in percentage points. Ten points for getting it right reducing by one point either way for each 0.25% off target.

    3. Most accurate pollster. This will be decided on the size of the predicted Lab-Con margin based on their final surveys. Choose one from ICM, Mori, NOP, CR, or YouGov. Four points for winner. Two points for second.

    4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow. Two points.

    5. Winning party Bristol West Two points.

    6. Winning party Cambridge Two points.

    7. Winning party Colne Valley Two points.

    8. Winning party Inverness Two points.

    9. Winning party Maidenhead Two points.

    10. Winning party St. Albans Two points.

    11. Winning party Upper Bann Two points.

    12. Winning party Ynys Mon Two points.

    Thanks to all who have provided ideas for which seats to choose. Best of luck and a happy New Year.

    Mike Smithson



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    116 comments to “Our Election Prediction Competition”

    1. Mike, Do you want us to post our answers here?

           by Ben December 30th, 2004 at 10:22 pm

    2. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. Labour Majority 34

      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote in percentage points. Lead 1%

      3. Most accurate pollster. YouGov

      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow- Conservative

      5. Winning party Bristol West- (toughie) Lib Dems

      6. Winning party Cambridge- Labour

      7. Winning party Colne Valley- Conservative

      8. Winning party Inverness- SNP

      9. Winning party Maidenhead- Conservative

      10. Winning party St. Albans- Conservative

      11. Winning party Upper Bann- UUP

      12. Winning party Ynys Mon- Plaid Cymru

           by Jon W December 30th, 2004 at 11:17 pm

    3. There are some gutsy calls there Jon W! Now, as Mike’s son I’m probably not eligible for any of these prizes, but I’ll give it my best shot:

      1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. Labour Majority 62

      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote in percentage points. 5% lead.

      3. Most accurate pollster. YouGov

      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow- Labour (Conservative indeed…)

      5. Winning party Bristol West- Lib Dem

      6. Winning party Cambridge- Labour

      7. Winning party Colne Valley- Labour

      8. Winning party Inverness- LibDem

      9. Winning party Maidenhead- Conservative

      10. Winning party St. Albans- Conservative

      11. Winning party Upper Bann- UUP

      12. Winning party Ynys Mon- Plaid Cymru

      Shame we don’t have 1 points for RKS MP y/n?

      Cheers,

           by Robert December 30th, 2004 at 11:26 pm

    4. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority.
      Labour Majority 90

      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote in percentage points.
      Lead 3.75%

      3. Most accurate pollster.
      YouGov

      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow
      Labour

      5. Winning party Bristol West
      Labour

      6. Winning party Cambridge
      Labour

      7. Winning party Colne Valley
      Labour

      8. Winning party Inverness
      Labour

      9. Winning party Maidenhead
      LD

      10. Winning party St. Albans
      Labour

      11. Winning party Upper Bann
      DUP

      12. Winning party Ynys Mon
      Plaid Cymru

      book_value[at]hotmail[dot]co[dot]uk

      I kind of want that Tony Blair mug…

           by book value December 30th, 2004 at 11:29 pm

    5. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. 65

      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote in percentage points. Lead 3.5%

      3. Most accurate pollster. ICM

      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow. Labour

      5. Winning party Bristol West Conservative

      6. Winning party Cambridge Labour

      7. Winning party Colne Valley Conservative

      8. Winning party Inverness SNP

      9. Winning party Maidenhead Lib Dems

      10. Winning party St. Albans Labour

      11. Winning party Upper Bann UUP

      12. Winning party Ynys Mon Plaid Cymru

           by Gary Barford December 31st, 2004 at 12:05 am

    6. Apologies, thought it would show my e-mail, which is outrightunlawful[at]gmail[dotcom]

           by Gary Barford December 31st, 2004 at 12:06 am

    7. 1. Labour Majority 85.

      2. Labour Lead 5%

      3. ICM

      4. Labour : Bethnal Green and Bow.

      5. Liberal Democrats : Bristol West.

      6. Labour : Cambridge.

      7. Labour : Colne Valley.

      8. Liberal Democrats : Inverness.

      9. Liberal Democrats : Maidenhead.

      10. Labour : St. Albans.

      11. DUP : Upper Bann.

      12. Plaid : Ynys Mon.

           by Ben December 31st, 2004 at 12:12 am

    8. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority: Labour Majority 70

      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote in percentage points: Lead 4.5% (with 37%)

      3. Most accurate pollster: YouGov

      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow: RESPECT
      (close run thing - but Gorgeous George to snatch it)

      5. Winning party Bristol West: LibDems
      (fall in Tory vote & swing from Lab to LDs - giving a comfortable LD gain)

      6. Winning party Cambridge: Labour
      (despite being the person who first started this stuff about the LDs I think Campbell will just hang on)

      7. Winning party Colne Valley: Labour
      (Lab holding on but with LDs moving into 2nd place)

      8. Winning party Inverness: Labour
      (a real toss up but I’ll go with incumbancy & LDs a close second)

      9. Winning party Maidenhead: LibDem
      (May is toast, as is Davis in Haltemprice)

      10. Winning party St. Albans: Labour
      (one of the marginals where I suspect Labour’s vote will hold up pretty well)

      11. Winning party Upper Bann: UUP
      (Somehow I think the great survivor Trimble was hang on - how can Paisley portray him as an appeaser when he’s on the verge of a deal with SF himself?)

      12. Winning party Ynys Mon: Plaid Cymru

           by Bullseye December 31st, 2004 at 12:50 am

    9. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. 4 seats.

      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote in percentage points. Labour deficit 1%

      3. Most accurate pollster. YouGov

      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow. Two points. Conservatives

      5. Winning party Bristol West Two points. Lib Dems

      6. Winning party Cambridge Two points. Lib Dems

      7. Winning party Colne Valley Two points. Conservatives.

      8. Winning party Inverness Two points. Lib Dems

      9. Winning party Maidenhead Two points. Lib Dems

      10. Winning party St. Albans Two points. Conservatives

      11. Winning party Upper Bann Two points. DUP

      12. Winning party Ynys Mon Two points. PC

           by Mike Smithson December 31st, 2004 at 3:32 am

    10. 1 : Labour Majority - 88

      2: Labour Lead - 3%

      3: You Gov

      4: Labour

      5: Liberal Democrat

      6: Labour

      7: Labour

      8: Labour

      9: Conservative

      10: Labour

      11: Ulster Unionist Party

      12: Plaid Cymru

           by Max December 31st, 2004 at 9:53 am

    11. 1. Labour majority 95
      2. Labour lead 6%
      3. ICM
      4. Labour
      5. Labour
      6. Labour
      7. Labour
      8. Labour
      9. Lib Dem
      10. Labour
      11. UUP
      12. Labour

           by James December 31st, 2004 at 10:25 am

    12. 1. Size of the Labour majority. 72

      2. Size of Labour’s lead in the GB popular vote in percentage points. 3%

      3. Most accurate pollster. ICM

      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow. Labour

      5. Winning party Bristol West. Lib Dem

      6. Winning party Cambridge. Labour

      7. Winning party Colne Valley. Conservatives.

      8. Winning party Inverness. Lib Dem

      9. Winning party Maidenhead. Lib Dem

      10. Winning party St. Albans. Labour

      11. Winning party Upper Bann. UUP

      12. Winning party Ynys Mon. Plaid Cymru

           by DM Andy December 31st, 2004 at 10:25 am

    13. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. 50

      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote: 6%

      3. Most accurate pollster. This will be decided on the size of the predicted Lab-Con margin based on their final surveys. Choose one from ICM, Mori, NOP, CR, or YouGov. Four points for winner. Two points for second. YOU GOV

      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow. Two points. Respect

      5. Winning party Bristol West Two points.Lib Dem

      6. Winning party Cambridge Two points.Labour

      7. Winning party Colne Valley Two points.Lib Dem

      8. Winning party Inverness Two points.SNP

      9. Winning party Maidenhead Two points.Con

      10. Winning party St. Albans Two points.Con

      11. Winning party Upper Bann Two points.DUP

      12. Winning party Ynys Mon Two points.Plaid

           by Cymru Mark December 31st, 2004 at 10:43 am

    14. 1. Size of the Labour majority: 70
      2. Labour’s lead/deficit in GB popular vote: 4%
      3. Most accurate pollster: You Gov
      4. Winning party Bethnal Green & Bow: Respect
      5. Winning party Bristol East: Liberal Democrat
      6. Winning party Cambridge: Labour
      7. Winning party Colne Valley: Conservative
      8. Winning party Inverness: Liberal Democrat
      9. Winning party Maidenhead: Liberal Democrat
      10 Winning party St Albans: Conservative
      11 Winning party Upper Bann: DUP
      12 Winning party Ynys Mon: Plaid Cymru

      My e-mail address is larkinabout at postmaster dot co dot uk

           by Richard December 31st, 2004 at 11:22 am

    15. ) 32
      2) 1% lead
      3) You Gov
      40 Con
      5) Con
      6) Lab
      7) Lab
      8) Lab
      9) Con
      10) Con
      11)UUP
      12) Plaid Cymru

           by pip December 31st, 2004 at 11:31 am

    16. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. 112

      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote in percentage points. Lead 6.25%

      3. Most accurate pollster. ICM

      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow: Labour

      5. Winning party Bristol West: Lib Dems

      6. Winning party Cambridge: Labour

      7. Winning party Colne Valley: Labour

      8. Winning party Inverness: Lib Dems

      9. Winning party Maidenhead: Lib Dems

      10. Winning party St. Albans: Labour

      11. Winning party Upper Bann: UUP

      12. Winning party Ynys Mon: Labour

           by Lorcan December 31st, 2004 at 11:41 am

    17. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. 130
      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote in percentage points. Lead 7.5%
      3. Most accurate pollster. YouGov
      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow: Respect
      5. Winning party Bristol West: Lib Dems
      6. Winning party Cambridge: Labour
      7. Winning party Colne Valley: Labour
      8. Winning party Inverness: Lib Dems
      9. Winning party Maidenhead: Lib Dems
      11. Winning party Upper Bann: UUP
      12. Winning party Ynys Mon: Plaid Cymru

           by John Burke December 31st, 2004 at 12:00 pm

    18. 1. 64
      2. 3%
      3. Yougov.
      4. Labour (Respect a close second).
      5. Lib Dem
      6. Labour
      7. Labour
      8. SNP
      9. Lib Dems
      10. Conservative
      11. DUP
      12. Plaid

           by Sean Fear December 31st, 2004 at 12:03 pm

    19. Apologies left out ST Albans on previous post

      1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. 130
      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote in percentage points. Lead 7.5%
      3. Most accurate pollster. YouGov
      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow: Respect
      5. Winning party Bristol West: Lib Dems
      6. Winning party Cambridge: Labour
      7. Winning party Colne Valley: Labour
      8. Winning party Inverness: Lib Dems
      9. Winning party Maidenhead: Lib Dems
      10. Winning party St. Albans: Labour
      11. Winning party Upper Bann: UUP
      12. Winning party Ynys Mon: Plaid Cymru

           by John Burke December 31st, 2004 at 12:06 pm

    20. 1. Size of Labour Majority - 54
      2. Size of Labour’s lead in GB Popular Vote - 2.0%
      3. Most accurate Pollster - YouGov
      4. Winning Party Bethnal Green and Bow - Respect
      5. Winning Party Bristol West - Lib Dem
      6. Winning Party Cambridge - Labour (just)
      7. Winning Party Colne Valley - Conservative
      8. Winning Party Inverness - Lib Dems
      9. Winning Party Maidenhead - Conservative
      10.Winning Party St Albans - Conservative (just)
      11.Winning Party Upper Bann - UUP
      12.Winning Party Ynys Mon - Plaid Cymru

           by Sarah J December 31st, 2004 at 12:09 pm

    21. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. 80
      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote in percentage points. 4.25%
      3. Most accurate pollster. ICM
      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow. Labour
      5. Winning party Bristol West. Lib Dems
      6. Winning party Cambridge Labour
      7. Winning party Colne Valley Labour
      8. Winning party Inverness Lib Dem
      9. Winning party Maidenhead Lib Dems
      10. Winning party St. Albans Conservative
      11. Winning party Upper Bann DUP
      12. Winning party Ynys Mon Plaid

           by Will December 31st, 2004 at 12:46 pm

    22. Labour majority 81
      Labour lead 4%
      Pollster YouGov
      Bethnal Green Labour
      BRistol West LibDem
      Cambridge Labour
      Colne Valley Labour
      Inverness LibDem
      Maidenhead Conservative (May will survive, she is too nice to lose)
      St. Albans Labour
      Upper Bann Ulster Unionist (Trimble deserves to win)
      Ynys Mon Plaid Cymru

           by tony December 31st, 2004 at 12:58 pm

    23. forgot my email which markjones64@btinternet.com

           by Cymru Mark December 31st, 2004 at 1:22 pm

    24. 1. Size of Labour Majority - 54
      2. Size of Labour’s lead in GB Popular Vote - 2.0%
      3. Most accurate Pollster - YouGov
      4. Winning Party Bethnal Green and Bow - Respect
      5. Winning Party Bristol West - Lib Dem
      6. Winning Party Cambridge - Labour (just)
      7. Winning Party Colne Valley - Conservative
      8. Winning Party Inverness - Lib Dems
      9. Winning Party Maidenhead - Conservative
      10.Winning Party St Albans - Conservative (just)
      11.Winning Party Upper Bann - UUP
      12.Winning Party Ynys Mon - Plaid Cymru

      1. Size of Labour Majority - 44
      2. Size of Labour’s lead in GB Popular Vote - 1.5%
      3. Most accurate Pollster - ICM
      4. Winning Party Bethnal Green and Bow - Respect
      5. Winning Party Bristol West - Lib Dem
      6. Winning Party Cambridge - LD
      7. Winning Party Colne Valley - Lab
      8. Winning Party Inverness - Lib Dems
      9. Winning Party Maidenhead - LD
      10.Winning Party St Albans - Con
      11.Winning Party Upper Bann - UUP
      12.Winning Party Ynys Mon - Plaid Cymru

           by Jon (West Country) December 31st, 2004 at 1:25 pm

    25. Oops just the second lot as you can I lazily copied from someone else with similar…

           by Jon (West Country) December 31st, 2004 at 1:26 pm

    26. Re. 14, as we’re allowed to spell out e-mail addresses the normal way, mine is: larkinabout@postmaster.co.uk

           by Richard December 31st, 2004 at 1:49 pm

    27. My e-mail is sean@grahamfear.co.uk

           by Sean Fear December 31st, 2004 at 1:56 pm

    28. fifth.horseman@btinternet.com is mine

           by Jon (West Country) December 31st, 2004 at 2:00 pm

    29. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. 106 (376-270)
      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote in percentage points. 5.5%
      3. Most accurate pollster. MORI
      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow. Labour
      5. Winning party Bristol West. Lib Dems
      6. Winning party Cambridge. Labour
      7. Winning party Colne Valley. Labour
      8. Winning party Inverness. Lib Dems
      9. Winning party Maidenhead. Lib Dems
      10. Winning party St. Albans. Labour
      11. Winning party Upper Bann. UUP
      12. Winning party Ynys Mon. Plaid Cymru

      my e-mail is aandsandd@aol.com

           by Alan J December 31st, 2004 at 2:24 pm

    30. Okay, here we go. Let’s have a more dramatic one …
      1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. Minority 8
      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote in percentage points. Level
      3. Most accurate pollster. YouGov
      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow. Respect (just - a three way photofinish)
      5. Winning party Bristol West. Lib Dems
      6. Winning party Cambridge. Labour
      7. Winning party Colne Valley. Conservative
      8. Winning party Inverness. Lib Dems
      9. Winning party Maidenhead. Conservative
      10. Winning party St. Albans. Conservative
      11. Winning party Upper Bann. UUP
      12. Winning party Ynys Mon. Plaid Cymru

           by Andy Cooke December 31st, 2004 at 2:40 pm

    31. Can we do comments on the competition in the previous thread? I’ve moved a couple which did not follow this

           by Mike Smithson December 31st, 2004 at 3:40 pm

    32. newlab maj - 10
      newlab lead - 1%
      pollster - yougov
      bethnal green - respect
      bristol west - libdem
      cambridge - newlab
      colne valley - con
      inverness - snp
      maidenhead - libdem
      st albans - newlab
      upper bann - uup
      ynys mon - plaid

      entry from brutus

           by brutus December 31st, 2004 at 4:00 pm

    33. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. 68

      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote in percentage points. 4%

      3. Most accurate pollster. This will be decided on the size of the predicted Lab-Con margin based on their final surveys. YouGov

      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow. Respect

      5. Winning party Bristol West. Lib Dems

      6. Winning party Cambridge. Labour

      7. Winning party Colne Valley. Conservatives

      8. Winning party Inverness. Lib Dems

      9. Winning party Maidenhead. Conservatives

      10. Winning party St. Albans. Conservatives

      11. Winning party Upper Bann. DUP

      12. Winning party Ynys Mon Plaid.

           by Tim December 31st, 2004 at 6:36 pm

    34. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. - 44

      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote in percentage points. - 3.25%

      3. Most accurate pollster. - YouGov

      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow. - Labour

      5. Winning party Bristol West - Lib Dem

      6. Winning party Cambridge - Labour

      7. Winning party Colne Valley - Conservative

      8. Winning party Inverness - SNP

      9. Winning party Maidenhead - Lib Dem

      10. Winning party St. Albans - Conservative

      11. Winning party Upper Bann - DUP

      12. Winning party Ynys Mon - Plaid

      stephen dot travis at bt dot com

      Happy new year to everyone

           by Tabman Steve December 31st, 2004 at 7:41 pm

    35. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. 75

      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote in percentage points. 6%

      3. Most accurate pollster. ICM

      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow. Labour

      5. Winning party Bristol West Lib Dems

      6. Winning party Cambridge Labour

      7. Winning party Colne Valley Conservatives

      8. Winning party Inverness Labour

      9. Winning party Maidenhead Lib Dems

      10. Winning party St. Albans Conservatives

      11. Winning party Upper Bann UUP

      12. Winning party Ynys Mon Plaid Cymru

           by Andrew December 31st, 2004 at 10:18 pm

    36. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. 18

      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote in percentage points. Minus 2

      3. Most accurate pollster. YouGov.

      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow. Lib Dems.

      5. Winning party Bristol West Lib Dem

      6. Winning party Cambridge Lib Dem

      7. Winning party Colne Valley Lib Dem.

      8. Winning party Inverness Lib dem.

      9. Winning party Maidenhead Lib Dem.

      10. Winning party St. Albans Lib Dem.

      11. Winning party Upper Bann UU.

      12. Winning party Ynys Mon PC.

           by John January 1st, 2005 at 2:48 am

    37. Size of the Labour Majority: 71
      Size of the Labour Lead: 4% lead
      Most accurate pollster: You Gov, as much as it pains me to say it
      Win Bethnal Green and Bow: Lab by 1,200 over Respect
      Win Bristol West: LD by 3,000 over Lab
      Win Cambridge: Labour by 1,000 over LD
      Win Colne Valley: Con by 200 over Lab
      Win Inverness: Lab by 1,000 over LDm
      Win Maidenhead: LDm by 700 over Con
      Win St Albans: Lab by 1,500 over Con
      Win Upper Bann: UU (please)
      Win Ynys Mon: Plaid by 500 over Lab

           by Iain January 1st, 2005 at 10:13 am

    38. Great Comp Mike! - Here’s my effort

      1.Labour Majority 28
      2.Labour Deficit 1.25%
      3.YouGov

      Constituancies

      Bethnal Green & Bow - Lab hold
      Bristol West - Lib Dem gain from Lab
      Cambridge - Lib Dem gain from Lab
      Colne Valley - Con gain from Lab
      Inverness etc - Lib dem gain from Lab
      Maidenhead - Con hold
      St Albans - Con gain from Lab
      Upper Bann - UUP hold
      Ynys Mon - PC gain from Lab

      Cheers

           by ROBBIE BOX January 1st, 2005 at 11:31 am

    39. 1/ Size of the Labour majority - 60

      2/ Size of the Labour lead - 4%

      3/ Most accurate pollster - You Gov

      4/ Bethnal Green & Bow - Respect

      5/ Bristol West - Liberal Democrat

      6/ Cambridge - Labour

      7/ Colne Valley - Conservative

      8/ Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey - Liberal Democrat

      9/ Maidenhead - Conservative

      10/ St Albans - Conservative

      11/ Upper Bann - Ulster Unionist

      12/ Ynys Mon - Plaid Cymru

      dean.ramsdale@leicester.gov.uk

           by Dean January 1st, 2005 at 2:45 pm

    40. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. Labour Majority 58

      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote in percentage points. 4% lead.

      3. Most accurate pollster. YouGov

      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow -Labour

      5. Winning party Bristol West- Lib Dem

      6. Winning party Cambridge- Lib Dem

      7. Winning party Colne Valley - Conservative

      8. Winning party Inverness- LibDem

      9. Winning party Maidenhead- Lib Dem

      10. Winning party St. Albans- Conservative

      11. Winning party Upper Bann - UUP

      12. Winning party Ynys Mon - Plaid Cymru

           by zebidee January 1st, 2005 at 4:33 pm

    41. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. - 52
      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote – 1.75%
      3. Most accurate pollster. - CR
      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow. Labour
      5. Winning party Bristol West Conservative
      6. Winning party Cambridge Labour
      7. Winning party Colne Valley Conservative
      8. Winning party Inverness SNP
      9. Winning party Maidenhead Conservative
      10. Winning party St. Albans Conservative
      11. Winning party Upper Bann DUP
      12. Winning party Ynys Mon Plaid Cymru

      mikekillingworth@ntlworld.com

           by Innocent Abroad January 1st, 2005 at 7:11 pm

    42. Sorry i forgot to add my E-mail address to my entry

      chitchatforum@aol.com

           by ROBBIE BOX January 1st, 2005 at 7:38 pm

    43. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. 80

      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote in percentage points. 5% Lead

      3. Most accurate pollster. Yougov

      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow. Labour

      5. Winning party Bristol West . Lib dem

      6. Winning party Cambridge . Labour

      7. Winning party Colne Valley. Lib dem

      8. Winning party Inverness. Lib dem

      9. Winning party Maidenhead . Lib dem

      10. Winning party St. Albans Con

      11. Winning party Upper Bann . DUP

      12. Winning party Ynys Mon pc

           by Nick Farnden January 1st, 2005 at 8:44 pm

    44. Sorry, forgot to put my email at 30.

      Andy_Cooke@dsl.pipex.com

           by Andy Cooke January 1st, 2005 at 9:06 pm

    45. Miss out my email - bullseye@thebigpic.org

           by bullseye January 1st, 2005 at 9:19 pm

    46. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. 96

      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote in percentage points. 4% Lead

      3. Most accurate pollster. Yougov

      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow. Labour

      5. Winning party Bristol West . Labour

      6. Winning party Cambridge . Labour

      7. Winning party Colne Valley. Labour

      8. Winning party Inverness. Labour

      9. Winning party Maidenhead . Conservatives

      10. Winning party St. Albans Conservatives

      11. Winning party Upper Bann . DUP

      12. Winning party Ynys Mon Labour

      allenj1@lse.ac.uk

           by Joe A January 1st, 2005 at 11:15 pm

    47. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. Maj. 65

      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote. Lead 3.75

      3. Most accurate pollster. Mori

      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow. Conservative

      5. Winning party Bristol West. LibDem

      6. Winning party Cambridge. Labour

      7. Winning party Colne Valley. Labour

      8. Winning party Inverness. LibDem

      9. Winning party Maidenhead. LibDem

      10. Winning party St. Albans. Labour

      11. Winning party Upper Bann. DUP

      12. Winning party Ynys Mon. PC

      kitsmith30@aol.com

           by kit January 2nd, 2005 at 12:42 am

    48. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. Maj. 63

      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote. Lead 3.5

      3. Most accurate pollster. YouGov

      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow. Lab (just over RESPECT)

      5. Winning party Bristol West. LDs (by 1,000)

      6. Winning party Cambridge. Labour (by 1,500)

      7. Winning party Colne Valley. Labour (LDs in second)

      8. Winning party Inverness. Lab (but frankly too close to call with SNP)

      9. Winning party Maidenhead. Con (by 500 over LDs)

      10. Winning party St. Albans. Con

      11. Winning party Upper Bann. Trimble

      12. Winning party Ynys Mon. PC

           by Borderboi January 2nd, 2005 at 9:36 am

    49. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority: 75

      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote in percentage points: 2.5%

      3. Most accurate pollster: YouGov

      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow: Labour

      5. Winning party Bristol West: LibDem

      6. Winning party Cambridge. LibDem

      7. Winning party Colne Valley: Cons

      8. Winning party Inverness: Labour

      9. Winning party Maidenhead: Lib Dem

      10. Winning party St. Albans: Labour

      11. Winning party Upper Bann: DUP

      12. Winning party Ynys Mon: PC

           by JamesD January 2nd, 2005 at 11:44 am

    50. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. 16 seats.

      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote in percentage points. Labour defecit 0.5%

      3. Most accurate pollster. YouGov

      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow. Two points. Respect

      5. Winning party Bristol West Two points. Lib Dems

      6. Winning party Cambridge Two points. Lib Dems

      7. Winning party Colne Valley Two points. Conservatives.

      8. Winning party Inverness Two points. Lib Dems

      9. Winning party Maidenhead Two points. Lib Dems

      10. Winning party St. Albans Two points. Labour (just)

      11. Winning party Upper Bann Two points. UUP

      12. Winning party Ynys Mon Two points. PC

           by Big Tall Tim January 2nd, 2005 at 12:31 pm

    51. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority: 47

      2. Size of LabourÅfs lead in the GB popular vote: 4%

      3. Most accurate pollster: ICM.

      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow: Conservative.

      5. Winning party Bristol West: Lib Dem.

      6. Winning party Cambridge: Lib Dem.

      7. Winning party Colne Valley: Labour.

      8. Winning party Inverness: Lib Dem.

      9. Winning party Maidenhead: Lib Dem.

      10. Winning party St. Albans: Labour.

      11. Winning party Upper Bann: DUP.

      12. Winning party Ynys Mon: PC.

           by Duncan January 2nd, 2005 at 2:31 pm

    52. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. = 70

      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote in percentage points. = 1.75

      3. Most accurate pollster. = YouGov.

      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow. = Respect.

      5. Winning party Bristol West = Labour.

      6. Winning party Cambridge = Lib Dems.

      7. Winning party Colne Valley = Consevative.

      8. Winning party Inverness = Lib Dems.

      9. Winning party Maidenhead = Conservative.

      10. Winning party St. Albans = Labour

      11. Winning party Upper Bann = DUP

      12. Winning party Ynys Mon = PC

      davidledger@blueyonder.co.uk

           by David Ledger January 2nd, 2005 at 5:25 pm

    53. e-mail from Clive cliveandkathparkinson@compuserve.com

      1. Lab majority 60
      2. Lab lead 3%
      3. Mori
      4. Bethnal Green - Labour
      5. Bristol West - Lib Dem
      6. Cambridge - Labour
      7. Colne Valley - Labour
      8. Inverness - Lib Dem
      9. Maidenhead - Conservatives (after several recounts!)
      10. St. Albans - Labour
      11. Upper Bann - UUP
      12. Plaid Cymru

           by Clive January 2nd, 2005 at 8:11 pm

    54. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. Majority 130
      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote in percentage points. +6%
      3. Most accurate pollster. ICM
      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow. Labour
      5. Winning party Bristol West. Lib Dems
      6. Winning party Cambridge. Lib Dems
      7. Winning party Colne Valley. Lib Dems
      8. Winning party Inverness. Lib Dems
      9. Winning party Maidenhead. Lib Dems
      10. Winning party St. Albans. Conservative
      11. Winning party Upper Bann. DUP
      12. Winning party Ynys Mon. Plaid Cymru

      Alan Watkins in todays independent plus strength of UKIP were biggest influences.

           by Icarus January 2nd, 2005 at 9:19 pm

    55. Sorry re 54 thought putting e-mail in the box would do –

      e-mail address for me walkley@waitrose.com

           by Icarus January 2nd, 2005 at 9:20 pm

    56. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority.
      Lab=336, Con=224, LD=67. Lab maj=31

      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote in percentage points.
      Lab lead of 1.7%. Lab=34.9%, Con=33.2%, LD=23.5%, Others=8.4%.

      3. Most accurate pollster.
      YouGov.

      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow.
      Con.

      5. Winning party Bristol West
      Lib Dem.

      6. Winning party Cambridge
      Lab.

      7. Winning party Colne Valley
      Con.

      8. Winning party Inverness
      Lib Dem.

      9. Winning party Maidenhead
      Con.

      10. Winning party St. Albans
      Con.

      11. Winning party Upper Bann
      DUP.

      12. Winning party Ynys Mon
      PC

           by Stephen T January 2nd, 2005 at 11:44 pm

    57. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority: 70

      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote in percentage points: 5%

      3. Most accurate pollster: ICM

      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow: Labour

      5. Winning party Bristol West: Lib Dem

      6. Winning party Cambridge: Lib Dem

      7. Winning party Colne Valley: Labour

      8. Winning party Inverness: Labour

      9. Winning party Maidenhead: Lib Dem

      10. Winning party St. Albans: Conservative

      11. Winning party Upper Bann: UUP

      12. Winning party Ynys Mon: Plaid Cymru

      email: sjoh0257@herald.ox.ac.uk

           by HG January 3rd, 2005 at 11:08 pm

    58. 1. Size of the Labour majority: 100
      2. Labour’s lead/deficit in GB popular vote: 6%
      3. Most accurate pollster: You Gov
      4. Winning party Bethnal Green & Bow: Labour
      5. Winning party Bristol West: Labour
      6. Winning party Cambridge: Labour
      7. Winning party Colne Valley: Conservative
      8. Winning party Inverness: Labour
      9. Winning party Maidenhead: Conservative
      10 Winning party St Albans: Labour
      11 Winning party Upper Bann: DUP
      12 Winning party Ynys Mon: Labour

           by stephen mosley January 4th, 2005 at 10:23 am

    59. 1. Size of the Labour majority: 52
      2. Labour’s lead/deficit in GB popular vote: 3%
      3. Most accurate pollster: You Gov
      4. Winning party Bethnal Green & Bow: Labour
      5. Winning party Bristol West: LibDem
      6. Winning party Cambridge: Labour
      7. Winning party Colne Valley: Conservative
      8. Winning party Inverness: Labour
      9. Winning party Maidenhead: Conservative
      10 Winning party St Albans: Conservative
      11 Winning party Upper Bann: UUP
      12 Winning party Ynys Mon: PC

      Email is john-oreilly@tiscali.co.uk

           by John O January 4th, 2005 at 12:37 pm

    60. 1. Size of the Labour majority: 72
      2. Labour’s lead/deficit in GB popular vote: 7%
      3. Most accurate pollster: Mori
      4. Winning party Bethnal Green & Bow: Labour
      5. Winning party Bristol West: Labour
      6. Winning party Cambridge: Labour
      7. Winning party Colne Valley: Conservative
      8. Winning party Inverness: Labour
      9. Winning party Maidenhead: Conservative
      10 Winning party St Albans: Conservative
      11 Winning party Upper Bann: UUP
      12 Winning party Ynys Mon: Labour (with an increased majority)

           by pregethwr January 4th, 2005 at 1:46 pm

    61. Mike
      You’ve omitted Populus from your list of pollsters in Q3. I assume that was an oversight, but it does rather spoil your otherwise excellent quiz.
      Happy New Year.
      Andrew

           by Andrew Cooper January 4th, 2005 at 2:28 pm

    62. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. Labour Majority: 47

      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote in percentage points: Lead 4%

      3. Most accurate pollster: Mori

      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow: Respect

      5. Winning party Bristol West: Libdems

      6. Winning party Cambridge: Labour

      7. Winning party Colne Valley: Libdem

      8. Winning party Inverness: Libdem

      9. Winning party Maidenhead: Conservative

      10. Winning party St. Albans: Conservative

      11. Winning party Upper Bann: UUP

      12. Winning party Ynys Mon: Plaid Cymru

      thomasjpaul@hotmail.com

           by thomasjpaul January 4th, 2005 at 3:48 pm

    63. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. Fifteen points for getting it right reducing by one point either side for each seat off target.
      Labour majority of 105
      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote in percentage points. Ten points for getting it right reducing by one point either way for each 0.25% off target.
      Labour lead of 6%
      3. Most accurate pollster. This will be decided on the size of the predicted Lab-Con margin based on their final surveys. Choose one from ICM, Mori, NOP, CR, or YouGov. Four points for winner. Two points for second.
      Populus
      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow. Respect

      5. Winning party Bristol West. Lib Dem

      6. Winning party Cambridge. Labour

      7. Winning party Colne Valley. Labour

      8. Winning party Inverness. Labour

      9. Winning party Maidenhead. Lib Dem

      10. Winning party St. Albans. Labour

      11. Winning party Upper Bann DUP

      12. Winning party Ynys Mon. Plaid Cymru

           by Andrew Cooper January 4th, 2005 at 6:20 pm

    64. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. Lab + 102
      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote in percentage points. Lab + 2.5
      3. Most accurate pollster. ICM
      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow. Lab

      5. Winning party Bristol West LD

      6. Winning party Cambridge Lab

      7. Winning party Colne Valley Lab

      8. Winning party Inverness Lab

      9. Winning party Maidenhead Con

      10. Winning party St. Albans Lab

      11. Winning party Upper Bann DUP

      12. Winning party Ynys Mon PC

      robert@wallerballiol.freeserve.co.uk (used for result notification not regular correspondence)

           by Robert Waller January 4th, 2005 at 6:25 pm

    65. Pollsters eh? Didn’t Robert Waller predict a 70+ Labour majority two weeks ago on this site - Now it’s 102 - and Bob Worcester of MORI reckons 40-50 seats? They both can’t be right….

           by Sarah J January 4th, 2005 at 6:49 pm

    66. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. Lab + 100

      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote in percentage points. Lab + 6

      3. Most accurate pollster. ICM

      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow. Respect

      5. Winning party Bristol West. LibDems

      6. Winning party Cambridge Labour

      7. Winning party Colne Valley Labour

      8. Winning party Inverness LibDem

      9. Winning party Maidenhead LibDem

      10. Winning party St. Albans Labour

      11. Winning party Upper Bann DUP

      12. Winning party Ynys Mon Labour

           by TheHam January 4th, 2005 at 7:29 pm

    67. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. 70

      2. 4%

      3. Most accurate pollster. Mori

      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow. Labour
      5. Winning party Bristol West Two points. Lib Dem
      6. Winning party Cambridge. Lab
      7. Winning party Colne Valley Con
      8. Winning party Inverness Lib Dem
      9. Winning party Maidenhead Lib Dem
      10. Winning party St. Albans Con
      11. Winning party Upper Bann UUP
      12. Winning party Ynys Mon PC

           by Samuel B-S January 4th, 2005 at 7:31 pm

    68. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. 57

      2. Size of Labour’s lead. 7%

      3. Most accurate pollster. YouGov.

      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow. Respect

      5. Winning party Bristol West Labour

      6. Winning party Cambridge LibDems

      7. Winning party Colne Valley Two points.

      8. Winning party Inverness SNP

      9. Winning party Maidenhead Libdems

      10. Winning party St. Albans Conservative

      11. Winning party Upper Bann UUP

      12. Winning party Ynys Mon. Plaid Cymru

           by Anonymous January 4th, 2005 at 7:32 pm

    69. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. 57

      2. Size of Labour’s lead. 7%

      3. Most accurate pollster. YouGov.

      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow. Respect

      5. Winning party Bristol West Labour

      6. Winning party Cambridge LibDems

      7. Winning party Colne Valley Two points.

      8. Winning party Inverness SNP

      9. Winning party Maidenhead Libdems

      10. Winning party St. Albans Conservative

      11. Winning party Upper Bann UUP

      12. Winning party Ynys Mon. Plaid Cymru

           by Kingkane January 4th, 2005 at 7:32 pm

    70. 1 .63 maj

      2..4.2% lead

      3. Most accurate pollster.. ICM

      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow. Labour

      5. Winning party Bristol West Two points. Labour

      6. Winning party Cambridge Two points. Labour

      7. Winning party Colne Valley Two points. Labour

      8. Winning party Inverness Two points. SNP

      9. Winning party Maidenhead Two points. Con

      10. Winning party St. Albans Two points. Labour

      11. Winning party Upper Bann Two points. UU

      12. Winning party Ynys Mon Two points. PC

           by michael January 4th, 2005 at 8:24 pm

    71. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. Majority 124

      2. Labour’s lead/deficit: +5.75%

      3. Most accurate pollster. MORI

      4. Bethnal Green and Bow - Labour

      5. Bristol West - Labour

      6. Cambridge - Lib Dem

      7. Colne Valley - Labour

      8. Inverness - Labour

      9. Maidenhead - Lib Dem

      10. St. Albans - Labour

      11. Upper Bann - UUP

      12. Ynys Mon - Labour

           by Chris Read January 4th, 2005 at 9:26 pm

    72. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority.
      Majority of 4
      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote +3%
      3. Most accurate pollster. YouGov
      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow. Labour
      5. Winning party Bristol West LD
      6. Winning party Cambridge Labour
      7. Winning party Colne Valley Labour
      8. Winning party Inverness LD
      9. Winning party Maidenhead Conservative
      10. Winning party St. Albans Conservative
      11. Winning party Upper Bann DUP
      12. Winning party Ynys Mon Plaid Cymru

           by Luke Stubbs January 5th, 2005 at 1:14 am

    73. . Size of the Labour majority/minority.
      Majority of 96
      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote +4%
      3. Most accurate pollster. YouGov
      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow. Labour
      5. Winning party Bristol West LD
      6. Winning party Cambridge LD
      7. Winning party Colne Valley Labour
      8. Winning party Inverness Labour
      9. Winning party Maidenhead LD
      10. Winning party St. Albans Labour
      11. Winning party Upper Bann UUP
      12. Winning party Ynys Mon Labour

           by Malcolm Baines January 5th, 2005 at 1:16 pm

    74. 1. Lab Maj 72
      2. +4%
      3.ICM
      4.Lab
      5.Lib Dem
      6. Lib Dem
      7. Lab
      8. Lib Dem
      9. Lib Dem
      10. Lab
      11. DUP (to be controversial)
      12 PC

      graham@marketingmeans.co.uk

           by Graham January 5th, 2005 at 1:41 pm

    75. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. 26

      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote in percentage points. 1%

      3. Most accurate pollster. This will be decided on the size of the predicted Lab-Con margin based on their final surveys. YouGov

      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow. Labour

      5. Winning party Bristol West. LibDem

      6. Winning party Cambridge. Labour

      7. Winning party Colne Valley. Labour

      8. Winning party Inverness. SNP

      9. Winning party Maidenhead. Conservative

      10. Winning party St. Albans. Conservative

      11. Winning party Upper Bann. UUP

      12. Winning party Ynys Mon. Plaid

      mike@mike-wood.org.uk

           by Mike Wood January 5th, 2005 at 2:26 pm

    76. Chris Read at 72 - are you from Wilts?

           by Tabman Steve January 5th, 2005 at 2:35 pm

    77. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. +31
      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote in percentage points. 0.75%
      3. Most accurate pollster. This will be decided on the size of the predicted Lab-Con margin based on their final surveys. YouGov
      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow. Labour
      5. Winning party Bristol West. LibDem
      6. Winning party Cambridge. Labour
      7. Winning party Colne Valley. Labour
      8. Winning party Inverness. SNP
      9. Winning party Maidenhead. Conservative
      10. Winning party St. Albans. Conservative
      11. Winning party Upper Bann. DUP
      12. Winning party Ynys Mon. Plaid

           by Paul P January 6th, 2005 at 1:51 am

    78. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. 87

      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote: 5.6%

      3. Most accurate pollster. YOU GOV

      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow. Two points - Respect

      5. Winning party Bristol West Two points - Lib Dem

      6. Winning party Cambridge Two points - Lib Dem

      7. Winning party Colne Valley Two points - Labour

      8. Winning party Inverness Two points - Labour

      9. Winning party Maidenhead Two points - Lib Dem

      10. Winning party St. Albans Two points - Con

      11. Winning party Upper Bann Two points - UUP

      12. Winning party Ynys Mon Two points - Plaid

           by Mark G January 6th, 2005 at 1:56 am

    79. Lab Majority : 91
      Lab Lead : 3%
      Pollster : Yougov
      Bethnal Green : Labour
      Bristol W : LD
      Cambridge : Labour
      Colne Valley : Labour
      Inverness : LD
      Maidenhead : Con
      St Albans : Labour
      Upper Bann : UUP
      Ynys Mon : PC

      Gerry

           by Gerry January 6th, 2005 at 12:26 pm

    80. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. 43.

      2. 4.

      3. you guv.

      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow. Conservative.

      5. Winning party Bristol West Lib Dem.

      6. Winning party Cambridge Labour.

      7. Winning party Colne Valley Conservative.

      8. Winning party Inverness SNP (just).

      9. Winning party Maidenhead Conservative (i thought the tories were split up there Liberals make Kosavo look like a walk in the park).

      10. Winning party St. Conservative.

      11. Winning party Upper Bann UUP (to gentel an area for DUP).

      12. Winning party Ynys Mon Plyd Cymru (conservative close second).

           by Stuart Penketh January 6th, 2005 at 2:03 pm

    81. Lab majority: 62
      Lab lead: 1.75
      Pollster: ICM
      Bethnal Green: Respect
      Bristol: Lib Dems
      Cambridge: Labour
      Colne Valley: Labour
      Inverness: SNP
      Maidenhead: Tory
      St Albans: Tory
      Upper Bann: UUP
      Ynys Mon: PC

      optique (at) lycos (dt) co (dt) uk

           by Michael January 6th, 2005 at 5:35 pm

    82. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. Minority 22

      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote in percentage points. Deficit 1.5%

      3. Most accurate pollster. YouGov

      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow. Con.

      5. Winning party Bristol West. LD

      6. Winning party Cambridge. LD

      7. Winning party Colne Valley. Con.

      8. Winning party Inverness. LD.

      9. Winning party Maidenhead. Con.

      10. Winning party St. Albans. Con.

      11. Winning party Upper Bann. DUP.

      12. Winning party Ynys Mon. PC.

      Email : arevett at freesurf dot ch

           by Alasdair January 6th, 2005 at 5:48 pm

    83. This is the entry of ‘Mr Average’: it is the median or mode (most frequent) of the 64 entries above for each question; it encapsulates their combined wisdom & is therefore bound to be the winner:

      1: Majority = 70
      2: Lead = 4 %
      3: Pollstr = Yougov
      4: Bethanl Green = Labour
      5: Bristol W = Lib Dem
      6: Cambridge = Labour
      7: Colne Valley = Labour
      8: Inverness = Lib Dem
      9: Maidenhead = Lib Dem
      10: St Albans = Conservative
      11: Upper Bann = UUP
      12: Ynys Mon = Plaid Cymru

      The correlation between ‘forecast majority’ and ‘forecast poll lead’ for these 64 entries = 52 %.

           by Christo January 6th, 2005 at 6:47 pm

    84. 1: Lab Majority = 82
      2: Lab Lead = 4.5 %
      3: Pollster = MORI
      4: Bethnal Green = Labour
      5: Bristol W = Lib Dem
      6: Cambridge = Labour
      7: Colne Valley = Labour
      8: Inverness = Lib Dem
      9: Maidenhead = Conservative
      10: St Albans = Labour
      11: Upper Bann = UUP
      12: Ynys Mon = Plaid Cymru

      andy@sthcheshire.freeserve.co.uk

           by Andy January 6th, 2005 at 8:03 pm

    85. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. Majority 68
      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote. Lead +1.5%
      3. Most accurate pollster. YouGov
      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow. = Labour
      5. Winning party Bristol West. = Lib Dem
      6. Winning party Cambridge = Labour
      7. Winning party Colne Valley = Tory.
      8. Winning party Inverness = Lib Dem
      9. Winning party Maidenhead = Tory
      10. Winning party St. Albans = Labour
      11. Winning party Upper Bann = UUP.
      12. Winning party Ynys Mon = =P.C

           by Vino January 6th, 2005 at 10:30 pm

    86. I will go with Populus

           by Jon January 7th, 2005 at 9:16 am

    87. I’d like to switch to Populus, too (entry at message no.57).

           by HG January 7th, 2005 at 10:46 am

    88. I will also switch to Populus

           by Malcolm Baines January 7th, 2005 at 12:00 pm

    89. 1.Labour majority - 84

      2. Labour’s lead - 4.2%

      3. Most accurate pollster - YouGov

      4. Bethnal Green and Bow - Labour hold

      5. Bristol West - Lib Dem gain

      6. Cambridge - Lib Dem gain

      7. Colne Valley - Con gain

      8. Inverness - Lab win

      9. Maidenhead - Lib Dem gain

      10. St. Albans - Lab hold

      11. Upper Bann - UUP hold

      12. Ynys Mon - Lab hold

           by Edward Lennox January 7th, 2005 at 12:40 pm

    90. Labour Maj: 23
      Lead: 1.5%
      Pollster: YouGov
      Bethnal Green: Labour
      Bristol West: LibDem
      Cambridge: Labour
      Colne Valley: Tory
      Inverness: Labour
      Maidenhead: Tory
      St Albans: Tory
      Upper Bann: UUP
      Ynys Mon: PC

           by Christer the Tory January 7th, 2005 at 2:17 pm

    91. ok

      1. Labour Majority. 48

      2. Labour Lead. 2.9

      3. Top Pollster. YouGov

      4. Bethnal Green and Bow. Labour

      5. Bristol West. libdem

      6. Cambridge. Labour

      7. Colne Valley. conservative

      8. Inverness. libdem

      9. Maidenhead. conservative

      10. St Albans. labour

      11. Upper Bann. DUP

      12. Ynys Mon. labour

           by jhannen January 7th, 2005 at 2:33 pm

    92. Let’s give this a shot.

      1. Labour Majority 11
      2. Labour Lead +1.5%
      3. Top Pollster YouGov
      4. Bethnal Green and Bow Respect gain
      5. Bristol West LD gain
      6. Cambridge Labour hold
      7. Colne Valley Con gain
      8. Inverness Labour hold
      9. Maidenhead Con hold - I think May will just hold on (low 3 digit majority)
      10. St Albans Con gain
      11. Upper Bann DUP gain
      12. Ynys Mon PC gain

           by Rob January 7th, 2005 at 3:36 pm

    93. Let’s give this a shot!

      1. Labour Majority 11
      2. Labour Lead +1.5%
      3. Top Pollster YouGov
      4. Bethnal Green and Bow Respect gain
      5. Bristol West LD gain
      6. Cambridge Labour hold
      7. Colne Valley Con gain
      8. Inverness Labour hold
      9. Maidenhead Con hold - I think May will just hold on (low 3 digit majority)
      10. St Albans Con gain
      11. Upper Bann DUP gain
      12. Ynys Mon PC gain

      I messed up the previous entry, care to delete it? :) Cheers!

           by Rob January 7th, 2005 at 3:37 pm

    94. under Mike’s dispensation - like to change my entry to Populus.

           by brutus January 7th, 2005 at 5:19 pm

    95. Ditto

           by Tabman Steve January 7th, 2005 at 5:22 pm

    96. 1. Labour majority: 63

      2. Labour lead: 5%

      3. Pollster: Populus

      4. Bethnal Green and Bow: Labour

      5. Bristol West: Labour

      6. Cambridge: Labour

      7. Colne Valley: Labour

      8. Inverness: Liberal Democrats

      9. Maidenhead: Liberal Democrats

      10. St. Albans: Conservatives

      11. Upper Bann: UUP

      12. Ynys Mon: Plaid Cymru

           by Andy January 7th, 2005 at 11:32 pm

    97. Sorry chaps, here comes the 89th minute winner

      1. Labour Majority. 56
      2. Labour Lead. +5% (Lab down but UKIP hurts Con)
      3. Top Pollster. Populus
      4. Bethnal Green and Bow. Respect
      5. Bristol West. LD
      6. Cambridge. Lab
      7. Colne Valley. Lab
      8. Inverness. LD
      9. Maidenhead. LD
      10. St Albans. Lab
      11. Upper Bann. UUP
      12. Ynys Mon. PC

      villan@btopenworld.com

           by villan January 7th, 2005 at 11:51 pm

    98. No, sorry villan, it’s now the 90th minute and this is it!!

      1. Labour Majority. 92
      2. Labour Lead. +2.75
      3. Top Pollster. Populus
      4. Bethnal Green and Bow. Labour
      5. Bristol West. Labour
      6. Cambridge. Labour
      7. Colne Valley. Labour
      8. Inverness. Labour
      9. Maidenhead. Conservative
      10. St Albans. Labour
      11. Upper Bann. DUP, sadly.
      12. Ynys Mon. Plaid Cymru

      andgiles@aol.com

           by Andy G January 8th, 2005 at 1:05 am

    99. Forgot my email on my entry (#93).

      rob.derosa@hushmail.com

           by Rob January 8th, 2005 at 11:25 am

    100. Latest analysis of the competition as of 74 entries out of 75:
      (“Mr Average” still excluded from this analysis as he bumps up the mode as of his entry):
      1. Labour Majority. Range -22 to +130. Mean 62.36. Median 65. Mode 70.
      2. Labour Lead. Range -2 to +7.5. Mean +3.71%. Median +4%. Mode +4%.
      3. Pollsters. YouGov 42. ICM 14. Mori 8. Populus 9 CR 1.*
      4. Bethnal Green and Bow. Labour 45, Respect 20, Con 8, LD 1.
      5. Bristol West. LD 60, Labour 11, Con 3.
      6. Cambridge. Labour 56. LD 18.
      7. Colne Valley. Labour 37. Con 21. LD 5.**
      8. Inverness. Labour 23. LD 38. SNP 13.***
      9. Maidenhead. LD 38. Con 36.
      10. St Albans. Con 38. Lab 35. LD 1.
      11. Upper Bann. UUP 45. DUP 29.
      12. Ynys Mon. PC 64. Labour 10.

      Note: Mean is average with all added together and divided by number of entries. Median is average found from middle entry with all entries lined up in order. Mode is most common entry.

      * I have reallocated the votes of Brutus, HG, Malclm Baines, Tabman Steve and Jon. I have assumed “Jon” is “Jon (West Country”, if not, please can Jon say so.
      ** Kingkane failed to put an entry for Colne Valley.
      *** There was an error in my previous summary - I transposed the LD and Labour figures. My apologies.

           by Andy Cooke January 8th, 2005 at 11:49 am

    101. Labour majority: 80
      Labour Lead: 3%
      Pollster: YouGov
      Bethnal Green: Labour
      Bristol West: LD
      Cambridge: LD
      Colne Valley: Labour
      Inverness: Labour
      Maidenhead: LD
      St Albans: Conservative
      Upper Bann: DUP
      Ynys Mon: PC

           by Andrew January 8th, 2005 at 3:20 pm

    102. Labour Majority: 100
      Labour lead: 4%
      Top Pollster: YouGov
      Bethnal Green: Labour
      Bristol West: Labour
      Colne Valley: Labour
      Inverness: Labour
      Maidenhead: Conservative
      St Albans: Labour
      Upper Bann: UU
      Ynys Mon: Labour

           by Andrew M January 11th, 2005 at 7:02 pm

    103. Andrew M… could it be? the BBC’sS Saving grace and all round “Labour Man” or at least Husband ? :D

           by Ben January 11th, 2005 at 7:04 pm

    104. Well if it is, he won’t be able to claim the prize as he’s not left an email adress.

           by Tabman Steve January 11th, 2005 at 7:38 pm

    105. or posted before the closing date!

           by book value January 11th, 2005 at 7:40 pm

    106. Only just read about this after my Christmas and New Year Political Free Zone, so hope I can still enter:

      1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. 80
      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote in percentage points. Labour lead of 4%
      3. Most accurate pollster. MORI
      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow. Respect
      5. Winning party Bristol West. Lib Dem
      6. Winning party Cambridge. Lab
      7. Winning party Colne Valley. Lib Dem
      8. Winning party Inverness. SNP
      9. Winning party Maidenhead. Lib Dem
      10. Winning party St. Albans. Lab
      11. Winning party Upper Bann. DUP
      12. Winning party Ynys Mon. Plaid Cymru

           by Harry Hayfield January 11th, 2005 at 11:10 pm

    107. Not sure why, but my e-mail wasn’t included harry_hayfield@beeb.net

           by Harry Hayfield January 11th, 2005 at 11:12 pm

    108. This is great, look forward to looking into every area. Thanks for being there.

           by Anonymous January 18th, 2005 at 10:32 am

    109. Sorry, I only discovered this site after the New Year, and I have missed the closong date, but I see that others have put their views forward so here are mine, for what they are worth:-

      1. Size of the Labour majority = 100
      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote in percentage points. Labour lead of 5%
      3. Most accurate pollster. MORI
      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow. Labour
      5. Winning party Bristol West. Lib Dem
      6. Winning party Cambridge. Lib Dem
      7. Winning party Colne Valley. Labour
      8. Winning party Inverness. Labour
      9. Winning party Maidenhead. Lib Dem
      10. Winning party St. Albans. Conservative
      11. Winning party Upper Bann. UUP
      12. Winning party Ynys Mon. Labour

           by Augustus Carp January 18th, 2005 at 10:54 am

    110. Kingkane apologies for the failure to include a result for Colne Valley, but I suspect this area will surprise everyone except me and fail to elect anyone as they will have had a regulation 2 pints on the day and forget all about voting!

           by Kingkane January 22nd, 2005 at 8:00 pm

    111. I think that Labour will win with a majority of about 70. The Tories will gain seats overall, but will drop a few by default to the LibDems. I think the result will be Lab somewhere in the 360’s with about 35 - 37%. Cons on about 170 - 180 with 33 - 35% and the LibDems on about 60 - 70 seats with 20 - 22%.

           by Brian O'Neill February 2nd, 2005 at 7:45 pm

    112. LAB MAJ 70.LAB LEAD 4%.POLLSTER YOUGOV TURNOUT60-65%
      BETHNALL GREEN LAB
      BRISTOL WEST LD
      CAMBRIDGE LD
      COLNE VALLEY LAB
      INVERNESS LD
      MAIDENHEAD LD
      ST.ALBANS CON
      UPPER BANN DUP
      YNYS MON PC

           by BRIAN February 3rd, 2005 at 8:39 pm

    113. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. Labour majority of Eighty-Five
      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote Two and a half percentage points (lead)
      3. Most accurate pollster. YouGov
      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow. Labour (George Galloway loses deposit)
      5. Winning party Bristol West Labour
      6. Winning party Cambridge Labour
      7. Winning party Colne Valley Labour
      8. Winning party Inverness Labour.
      9. Winning party Maidenhead Lib Dems
      10. Winning party St. Albans Labour
      11. Winning party Upper Bann DUP
      12. Winning party Ynys Mon PC

           by Matthew Partridge February 11th, 2005 at 4:33 pm

    114. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. Labour majority 130
      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote +5%
      3. Most accurate pollster. YouGov
      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow: Labour
      5. Winning party Bristol West: Liberal Democrats
      6. Winning party Cambridge: Labour
      7. Winning party Colne Valley: Labour
      8. Winning party Inverness: Liberal Democrats
      9. Winning party Maidenhead: Conservative
      10. Winning party St. Albans: Labour
      11. Winning party Upper Bann: DUP
      12. Winning party Ynys Mon: PC

           by David March 26th, 2005 at 5:27 pm

    115. 1. Size of the Labour majority/minority. 100 seats (still a big majority)
      2. Size of Labour’s lead/deficit in the GB popular vote in percentage points. 4%
      3. Most accurate pollster. ICM
      4. Winning party Bethnal Green and Bow. Labour (not enough Bangalis will vote Respect)
      5. Winning party Bristol West. Lib Dems
      6. Winning party Cambridge. Conservatives
      7. Winning party Colne Valley. Labour
      8. Winning party Inverness. Lib Dems
      9. Winning party Maidenhead. Lib Dems
      10. Winning party St. Albans. Labour
      11. Winning party Upper Bann. UDUP (Paisleys lot)
      12. Winning party Ynys Mon. Plaid Cymru

           by Iqbal Ahmed April 15th, 2005 at 1:06 pm

    116. westin…

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           by westin September 6th, 2006 at 10:32 am