A General Election “sure thing”?
January 12th, 2005
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Is this the way to a near-certain profit?
One of the site’s regular contributors, Jon, has come forward with an ingenious plan that could be the nearest there is to a “sure thing” on the General Election.
His idea is simple - BUY the Tories at £10 a seat, at the level 195 seats on the spread-betting markets. At the same time BACK Labour for £1000 to win most seats at the General Election at the current price of 1.18 on the Betfair betting exchange. At that price you win £180 if Labour does get most seats but lose £1000 if it doesn’t.
If the Tories fall short of the 195 target then you are still a net winner with your Labour bet until Michael Howard’s party drops to below 177 seats. For you to lose your Labour to win most seats bet then the Tories will have to win something like 280 seats and your losses will be mostly offset by your spreadbetting winnings. Once the Tories are over 295 seats you are back in a profit situation.
Tories 177 or less you lose £10 for each seat.
Tories 177-195 you end up as an overall winner from your Labour bet.
Tories 196-280 (approx) seats you win on both bets.
Tories 281-295 seats you lose upto a maximum of £150
Tories 295+ your spreadbetting profit exceeds your Labour most seats losses.
You have to factor in the commission that Betfair and Spreadfair charge on winning bets and the the lower the Tory buy price the less the risk. The current spread is 194-197 seats.
All betting is a risk but Jon’s plan to offset part of a Tory buy at these level with a Labour win bet at the current 1.18 makes a lot of sense. What you are doing is buying an 18 seat reduction in the level that your spread bet will start losing for the very marginal additional risk of the Tories getting a seat total in the 280-295 range.
Mike Smithson
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Looks like the Tories are one down already after deselecting their candidate in Calder Valley - I’m sure Sarah J will disagree but I think most Tory realists will feel pretty cross about that one.
Aye, I’m sure there’s two sides to the story but I wasn’t a happy Tory bunny after reading the story. Streuth, and the seat only requires a 3% swing…!! As Enoch said in that notorious 1968 speech - and he knew a thing or two about splitting the party - “whom the gods wish to destroy, they first make mad”
What’s the story (morning glory) on this one? DO you have a link or can you precee it please?
TS, Long article in the Telegraph…but essentially, the candidate a former actress called Sue Catling (who had a good result in 2001) has been deselected at the THIRD attempt! Usual stuff about bossiness, rudeness, and other personal issues on one side etc, and intolerance, sexism, lies, on the other. There certainly appears more than a whiff of unlovely vindictiveness by her pursuers. But end result of such self-indulgence is the almost certain loss of an eminently winnable seat.
John - one sometimes dispairs of one’s party, but I guess they’re a reflection of society at large so one shouldn’t be surprised at less than altruistic behaviour. I’m sure this sort of thing goes on all the time in all parties.
Like the bet structure - does he structure financial derivatives for his day job?
I suppose every party has association just like this such as tynemouth for labour or norfolk north for the liberals, still when it happens to your party you do get ever so slightly annoyed. Never mind my seats in bury and Northampton south are putting up a good fight to labour.
6 - I think so, or something in finance at least.
Steve, Yep, you’re right. But bearing in mind Graham’s Old Testament smitings about plagues of locusts poised to devour the prostrate giant that once was the Conservative Party (or something like that anyway), this is, er, not exactly helpful.
“If you’re in a hole, stop digging.” I liked the Powell quote also.
Guido - I used to trade derivatives yes.
I don’t know the ins and outs of it, but deselecting a candidate who hasn’t disgraced herself a few weeks before the election doesn’t seem sensible.
Same sort of thing happened in Falmouth - I feel a bit sorry for the Tory there. I imagine 2 years ago he would have thought he was going to win, now he is looking at third.
Absolutely agree that it’s a stupid decision - Central Office should step in, close down the Association and impose Ms Catling, in my humble opinion!
John O. I have cast myself in many a role in my time, but have never tried out Moses! Was the Eleventh Commandment ‘ Thou shalt not deselect thy candidate 3 months out!’
WRT 14. That wouldn’t help her if she had nobody to campaign for her.
I think the damage is probably done now - I imagine a story like this just might creep into the local press and opposing leaflets! It does speak of a death wish in that local party…
Haven’t the Tories also just deselected Rachel Lake in Cleethorpes, another (rather more distant) prospect ? Is there a conspiracy amongst top Tories to lose the election ? I think us punters should be told (sorry, my keyboard doen’t have a smiley; I’m thinking of taking it back to the garage).
To Stuart at 7 - what’s going on with maverick associations at Tynemouth and North Norfolk ?
Well in 1997, when the Conservative MP for Wirral South was claimed by the grim reaper, Labour dumped not one but two candidates. The first was a coucnillor in Southwark whose wife said he had interesting skills in fisticuffs. The new candidate won
As for the Lib Dems in the Croydon North West by election everyone assumed teh Alliance would run Shirl the pearl. In the event they fielded a bizarre character who ended up being called Pitt the Twit - he won as well!
The elctorate will do what it wants to do and I am afraid will ignore political obsessives.
Well in 1997, when the Conservative MP for Wirral South was claimed by the grim reaper, Labour dumped not one but two candidates. The first was a coucnillor in Southwark whose wife said he had interesting skills in fisticuffs. The new candidate won
As for the Lib Dems in the Croydon North West by election everyone assumed teh Alliance would run Shirl the pearl. In the event they fielded a bizarre character who ended up being called Pitt the Twit - he won as well!
The elctorate will do what it wants to do and I am afraid will ignore political obsessives.
Tynemouth’s local labour party have gone belly up after losing control of council, for first time ever, two senior councillors went independent, over direction local party went and who they selected for the PPC members a too busy squabbling and not campaigning, against an effective, for once, tory presence who are now largest on council, needs a huge swing but could produce an interesting result. North Norfolk the the liberals just don’t seem to be doing that much campaigning been told by a liberal friend that the MP doesn’t seem to be organised that well, but seeing as he won it in 01 as oppossed to 97, I find it difficult to understand unless one of the association officers was organising in 01 and is no longer this time.
By way of absolutely nothing, I remember that in the midst of his triumph in Croydon Pitt turned in fury on his supporters who had just drenched him in celebration champagne fulminating that his new suit had just been ruined. Fortunately, his orange sandals were spared. Hope this isn’t libellous.
Re: 21. I have heard almost the reverse story about North Norfolk - current organiser was not there in 2001 but was heavily involved in engineering spectacular local election results in the constituency in 2003 and in two subsequent by elections. Whereabouts in North Norfolk does your contact reside?
Whatever happened to Bill Pitt?
Google doesn’t know much about him - it did give me a lengthy Word-format chapter from David Owen’s memoirs though. He had a beard, but no mention of the orange sandals as far as I could tell.
He changed his name to Brad …
Re 24: Didn’t he die in the late 18th Century - or are we talking about the Younger not the Elder - Ithink the younger carried on until the 19th Century, helping to cause the genesis of the modern Conservative Party by taking on Burke’s views of the French Revolution!
re 23 they live in Roughton, as i said myself I do not understand it and could only go of the fact that something must have changed which I stated in comment 21. as being speculation on my part.
P.S I do apologise about the spelling pressed the say it button too soon, sorry.
Re 18 - Brutus, I don’t know about Cleethorpes but I understand that at the beggining of the new year the Tories were planning to remove candidates who weren’t perceived to be working hard enough. Obviously this is not the case in Calder Valley but may explain other deselections.
Re: 28 - at the risk of being the most parochial poster of recent days, Roughton is unique in being a Tory gain from the Lib Dems in the last local elections in North Norfolk - it was mostly one way traffic in the opposite direction. Suggests there may be an incredibly localised issue (perhaps just one ward) in play skewing your friend’s impression.
Getting back to Mike’s main post - this is a great bet and well done to Jon for coming up with it!
Where are They Now, Part 57….Over to the LibDem anoraks,but something in the back of mind (very back!) makes me think that after his defeat in 1983, Pitt went back to local government (Leader of Sutton Council?) and may now even be Lord Pitt of Bubbly…
Re 30 Dear James
Thanks for the indepth knowledge, as i said was unable to figure it out, however, still promises to be interesting, however I would still bet 20 pounds on tynemouth being an exceptionally close fight
Re 25. Bill Pitt became part of the undead….eg a good liberal fooled into supporting Uncle Tone….Bill Pitt joined “new” labour in 1997…….
The Croyden NW by-election was the first one I ever helped in….blimey I am getting old……
Big Oooops, I’m getting hopelessly confused with Graham Tope of Sutton and Cheam….
Pitt the twit stood in 1987 as an alliance candidate elsewhere, aand joined Labourhe was an officer of Lambeth Council.
His outburst over the champagne on TV earned him the name Pitt the Twit and helped ease him to oblivion a year or so later.
He was “shadow home secretary” for a time.
However, once the campaign started no one queried his being the candidate in place of Shirley Williams.
Actually Bill Pitt probably saved the Liberal party from being swamped by the SDP.. by winning the first of three by elections it showed that the alliance could win without celebrity candidates…..he was an amusing person to spend time with whilst an MP he got a lot of grief from the press but he was no better or worse than many backbench Tory/Labour MPs
I seem to remember that Bill Pitt stood for Labour in one of the Kent coastal seats - Thanet N or S, or maybe Folkestone. Isn’t he the bloke William Hague has just written a book about?
Yes, that’s right, he is. I’m surprised no one commented on the ridiculous costume the book shows him wearing. Surely a horsehair w(h)ig trumps the orange sandals?
Interesting that the Tories are booting out candidates not perceived to be hard working enough. I presume this is another part of the slow transformation of that party into the LibDems.
Jon - what counts as hard working for a PPC? How can you square being a PPC who has a job with one who hasn;t?
AC @ 37. I made that joke @ 27!
Re: North Norfolk & Roughton
The Conservative Councillor who beat the LibDems in Roughton is a particualrly good councillor and local campaigner. She beat the LibDems at their own game, a lesson many of her beaten colleagues will hopefully have learned. As an aside, the whole Parish Council resigned a few months ago over the beahviour of two LibDem supporting Parish Councillors, so the LibDems are not exactly popular in Roughton. The LibDem constituency organiser is a District Councillor who was also behind the infamous http://www.libdemsondrugs.co.uk which I see has now been taken offline. No doubt it will reappear on May 6th. Oh what a cynic I have become…
Mike - presumably you’d have to go 18 seats below 177 to start making an overall loss (£10 per seat loss vs £180 profit on the Labour most seats bet.
Likelihood on 159 seats or less?
re above - mis-read the spread - understand now.
To modify - what sort of %ages would put the Tories under 177 seats?
Answer: 39 lab, 33 Con, 21 LD puts Cons on 173 seats (Baxter no TV)
Pitt the Twit joined Labour in 1996 - saying New Labour were more like the Liberal Party he thought he’d joined in 1973
18 Brutus A smiley is created by typing a colon, hyphen and close bracket in that order (open bracket for a frown)
WRT Various posts on Norfolk North. Yep - Roughton is a troublespot for the local LDs but I know the Parish Cllrs Iain mentions do have a different take on the Parish resignations.
I would like to know how to input a wink. Anyone know on a keyboard ?
23 - Current organiser is very good and is trying to sort out Roughton as I type
BTT - just tried to IM you - it says you’re on line but can;t get through!
Use a semi-colon for a wink. Also, you don;t need the hyphen.
Use a capital P instead of bracket for sticking out a tongue.
FYI - especially for non-LD posters. It’s not really HQ who organises which target seats other helpers travel to. Regions agree which seats are target ones with HQ and then Region organises those who are prepared to travel. The big weakness of the system is how well the Region is organised. I live in the East of England and HQ knows I’m prepared to travel but Region isn’t very efficient. Hence, I’m not waiting for them to advise me where to go. Therefore Folkestone, Watford, Maidenhead and Cambridge will all get help from me over the next 5 months.
RE48 well he has a difficult job BTT ,if he pulls it off my hat is doffed of to him but from what my friends says that village is very hostile to the lib dems and he is an out and out lib dem
WRT Pitt the twit, the Lib Dems gain was Labour’s loss then.
49 TS - Maybe because I’m on my home pc rather than work one ?
Hmm
You’re obviously hard at work on the N3 Courtesy Call Report then
Capital P didn’t work for tongue
Finsihed early as I don’t don’t do 50 hour weeks every week
Oh yes it does
so there
WRT your travels - do you have contaacts in the constituency parties, ring up and say “If I come down on X date what have you got for me to do?”
TS - type in text what I need to enter then
Contacts - mostly yes but if not, I send an e-mail to the address on the local party web site - picked up from the People section of http://www.libdems.org.uk/
50 hr week comment was against me by the way as I did that time in the last 2 full weeks b4 Xmas
Tim - colon capital-P
What sort of things do you do if they hadn;t planned anything for that date?
Just testing
There’s always some delivery to do
As there was in Roughton last week
And you survived will done BTT
There is a lot more to this Calder Valley matter than meets the eye. Let us just say that when a certain Tory Cabinet Member of Calderdale council handed over his mobile phone to his replacement from another partty then various ignorant and worried Conservative members WOULD kee on leaving all sorts of tales on the voicemail thinking they were for the previous ‘owner’. To say that Ms Catling’s life was ‘modern’ and ‘colourful’ pushes the English language to the limits. It is a bit of a boost for the Lib Dems (and also gives hope to the Labour MP?) a bit like neighbouring Colne Valley where the ppc resigned because of ‘bullying’ and chauvinism - sort of ‘if you can’t stand the heat, get into the Kitchen’?
Tim - well, when we get organised in you-know-where, I’ll give you a call (you’ll double the numbers :))
Sorry, Pitt the twit was a total airhead, a typical Lambeth Council officer of the time. He had/has a particularly harsh and grating voice. The writing came on the wall when les than six months after his win the Conservatives won every council seat in te constituency
Had the SDP swamped the Lib Dems then I suspect new Labour, under a slightly different name would have arrived at least a decade earlier.
What is now Respect would have included Benn and Heffer and David Owen would probably have been PM for 15 years!
Well done to Bill P - he certainly stopped that
I imagine Owen as PM would have been very similar to Blair: self-believing literally to a fault.
Does the Roughton debate win the prize for most parochial debate ever on this esteemed website? I note that 294 people in the village voted in the last local elections out of a total electorate of less than 600 according to the council’s website.
Perhaps Politicos could offer to award an engraved Roughton Parish Council Centenary pewter tankard to the most parochial comment between now and May? The standard has been set very high.
I think we once discussed a one-vote swing in one of the New Hampshire villages that votes at 12.01am to get into the papers. I don’t think New Hampshire has parishes though (Louisiana does) so it probably ought to be disqualified.
Stuart - re 21 & 32. Interesting comments, I follow local politics in Tynemouth quite closely and I think you have a fair point. The Tory PPC is never out of the local paper, and the Labour MP is rarely heard from.
Perhaps most striking is the Conservative performance in local elections. I know it doesn’t always follow through to the general election, but the Tory dominance is now so massive in Tynemouth, it has to have some impact.
In 1997, when Labour won Tynemouth from the Tories, Labour had 19 councillors in the constituency, the Tories 7 and Lib Dems 1. Now it’s Conservative 23, Labour 3, Ind 1. You’ll not find such a massive turnaround in many seats.
Re 18 and Rachael Lake. I don’t know the reasons for this deselection, but if her performance as candidate in Wansbeck last time is anything to go by, I suspect poor performance is the main reason. “Lazy and useless” was the comment about her I heard from more than one Conservative activist in the North East.
RE 69: I have been following local politics in Tynemouth too. They also won the directly elected mayor election a couple of years back and seem to have undergone a general revival in the constituency. While the majority held by Labour there will be tough to overcome in one sitting, i think it is a likely CON gain in 2009 unless something drastic happens.
Just out of interest on the issues of Northern seats, what do all you nice bloggers think will happen in the unpredictable seats of Bolton West and Bradford West? For a little anecdote I saw an amusing story today online about a local journalist showing a picture of Ruth Kelly MP (Bolton West) to 100 constituents. Virtually nobody knew who she was and answers ranged from Ellen Macarther to Ronan Keating!
While i don’t know much about Bradford or Bolton i think the Tories will recover slightly from their lows in City of York, where i live. The lib dems have been disastrous on the council with some of the highest council taxes in the country and are unpopular with voters because of steep parking charge increases. The Labour MP is fairly boring, if thats the right term. I know the tories hold no council seats here but i think they will remain in second place and dent Hugh Bailey’s majority. The local Tory PPC, Clive Booth, is very active and often in the local paper.
Re 71 I was the Chairman of Bury CF till three months ago, moved to northampton south, so was right next to Bolton, Ruth Kelly I suspect will keep her job however Liberals have done well in council elections, as did tories. There was no gain on the tories side but it was an all 3 councillors out election. Quite a few we gained top votes but didn’t gain second and third. If liberals do well they could take enough votes for the tories to take the seat.
On a other note after losing control in Bolton for the first time 20 years Labour are split in Bolton, labour clubs have shut (little lever being one) and local membership has plummeted all bad news. However Mrs Kelly has the most ingratrating habit of appearing constantly in the news.
RE 69 Thanks for the info would be nice to able to think of it as a gain how ever with the swing required i think it will become a marginal unfortuately.
Re 71 I was the Chairman of Bury CF till three months ago, moved to northampton south, so was right next to Bolton, Ruth Kelly I suspect will keep her job however Liberals have done well in council elections, as did tories. There was no gain on the tories side but it was an all 3 councillors out election. Quite a few we gained top votes but didn’t gain second and third. If liberals do well they could take enough votes for the tories to take the seat.
On a other note after losing control in Bolton for the first time 20 years Labour are split in Bolton, labour clubs have shut (little lever being one) and local membership has plummeted all bad news. However Mrs Kelly has the most ingratrating habit of appearing constantly in the news.
RE 69 Thanks for the info would be nice to able to think of it as a gain how ever with the swing required i think it will become a marginal unfortuately.
Can someone explain the principles of Betfair for me please?
TS
It’s probably easiest to understand with a Betfair screen open - so use Mike’s odds search to navigate to one of the Betfair markets (e.g. which party wins most seats in the GE).
You have one line for each party. The odds are “decimal odds”. For example, odds of 1.2 means that if you stake £100, your return including original stake will be £120 - i.e. 1/5 in “conventional odds”.
Backing Labour at 1.2 means you stake £100, with an inclusive return of £120 if Labour win.
Laying Labour at 1.2 means you pocket (metaphorically) someone’s £100 and pay them £120 if Labour win.
You can bet in two ways:
(a) accept an offer that someone else has posted
(b) put up your own offer in the hope someone accepts it
For type (a), the quotes show the offers other users have posted. For example, you may be able to back at 1.2 for up to £50 (i.e. a £50 potential loss by you), or lay at 1.21 for £100 (careful - this means a £100 potential profit by you). If you want to bet at those odds for smaller stakes, fine. If you want to bet at larger stakes, you need to accept worse odds for the portion over what is on offer, i.e. you take some of the next offer along on the line.
(b) You just specify whether you want to back or lay, what odds and what stake. Your bet is not made until someone else accepts the offer (they may accept part of it, so you have a bet for less than you expected - but someone else can still come along and accept the rest). You can cancel this offer at any time till it is accepted.
In terms of tactics, it’s useful to know about closing a position early. Say I back Labour today at 1.2 for £50. Next month I am able to lay them at 1.15 for £52.17.
Then my total position is (this time using net profits, i.e. return excluding the original stake):
Labour win Labour lose
Bet 1 £10 -£50
Bet 2 -£7.83 +£52.17
------------------------------------
Total £2.17 £2.17
So effectively I have closed my position for a profit. I make £2.17 whatever the election result is. I can take my original stake out of Betfair, but I don’t receive the £2.17 till the result is settled (and then I have to pay Betfair 5% of it in commission).
I’m sure that’s confusing - questions?
Though little would make me happier than a defeat for La Kelly I suspect that she will hang on for another 5 years and then lose. The big gainers there have been the LDs but the Tories were second last time. It could well be a big three way marginal come 2009 with the added spice of a Cabinet Minister head on the block (unless she’s been sacked by then).
So I would tip her to win and then third in 2009/2010/
BV at 76 - I’ll have to wait until the Mrs returns to look at Betfair (gambling sites not permitted through work), but many thanks for taking the time to explain the system. And I thought Double Taxation was complicated
play chess online Heh. How it goes? Buy it all. ASAP. Last discount in your live (AAAAA!!!!!). Take a rest.