ONE HUNDRED DAYS TO GO
January 24th, 2005
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Is it all over bar the shouting?
On the assumption that Tony Blair has decided to go to the country on Thursday May 5th then this Tuesday there’ll just be 100 days to go before polling day.
If you believe the conventional telephone pollsters have got it right and think that the Commons seats will be distributed on the basis of the Martin Baxter uniform national swing then there is absolutely no question about the result. Labour to win with a majority of at least 80. This is certainly where the money has been going.
And it’s hard for anybody to call anything other than a Labour victory with Tony Blair having a majority sufficient to see him through a historic third term for Labour.
The only clouds on the horizon could be Iraq getting much worse or the housing market starting to collapse bringing back the spectre of negative equity that so dogged the final days of John Major’s 1992-1997 adminstration.
The polls, however, are nothing like as clear-cut as they were four years ago. At this point in 2001 ICM had Labour at 47%, the Tories on 32% and the Lib Dems on 15%. - a spread of 32% between the three parties. The weekend’s YouGov poll had Labour at 34% - more than a quarter down on last time; the Tories just one point down but the Lib Dems on 25%. Instead of a 32% spread there is one of just nine points.
It’s sometimes easy to forget that a General Election covers the whole of the UK and not just England, Scotlands and Wales. The politics of Northern Ireland are equally fascinating with an enormous amount at stake. As the bookies step up activity for the election IG Index has now widened it’s spread betting market to include all the Northern Ireland parties. This is the latest range.
LAB 358-365 (-1): CON 183-190 (nc) : LD 71-75 (+1) : SNP5.75-6.25: PC 3.75-4.25: RES 0.5-1: UKIP 0.1-0.6: DUP 8-8.5: SF 5.5-6: UUP 2.5-3: SDLP 1-1.5
A PLEA TO ALL USERS
I work during the day and do not get much chance to monitor the site so there is no active moderation. If Politicalbetting is to be useful then people from all parties have to feel comfortable about coming on and joining in the discussions. Can we keep the noise level down and not let our comments become personal or offensive. This is going to get much harder as we approach polling day. Of the 11033 comments that have been posted here I’ve only had to edit two of them. Can we keep it that way.
Mike Smithson
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You are right about the politics in Northern Ireland. Having said that I think it is difficult to discuss how the parties will do in NI without actually living there. However if the Ulster Unionists do badly, then they might merge with the Conservatives after the next election.
As for the election, it is not all over yet. While Labour still leads in the polls, there numbers are at historically low levels for a party of government in the lead. Were the conservatives ever ahead in the 80s with such a small vote share?
But there are other reasons, for thinking this election will be a contest. 1. Decent campaigns being run by the both the opposition parties, with a lot of pavement politics on the ground. 2. The fact that Labour has being doing badly in the local elections and in by elections over the past few years. 3. The historically high ratings for the Lib Dems. 4. How many labour voters won’t turn out 5. The fact the media is very keen on trying to build up contest. In the last week they could have buried the conservatives over opinion polls and the defection but they have chosen not to.
This is not to mention the fact, that much could still go wrong between now and polling day, particulary as regards Iraq, Labour party divisions and the economy.
The UUP are vulnerable in at least three of their remaining five seats - Antrim East, Antrim South and Upper Bann. They are unlikely to lose North Down where they have tended to vote for a variety of Unionist parties but never shown any enthusiasm for the DUP. I would also have said that they couldn’t win Belfast South until today’s announcement of the retirement of the anti- agreement incumbent the Rev Martin Smyth. Will this make a difference?
If the UUP merged with the Conservatives would this present a problem for at least one - possibly the only one - of their MPs,ie. Lady Sylvia Hermon. I seem to recall Sean suggesting that her sympathies would be more likely to lie with Labour or the LDs rather than the Tories.
Burnside might hold on in Antrim South, but one imagines if it were just him and Sylvia Hermon left after the election he would switch to the DUP.
Number 3:
Burnside might hold on in Antrim South
Burnside almost certainly won South Antrim last time because enough SDLP and Alliance supporters held their noses and voted for him to get rid of William McCrea. As far as I know, the DUP have selected a different candidate this time - not one who had appeared on a platform with Billy Wright of the LVF - and Burnside has done very little over the last four years to persuade moderate Nationalists that he is worth saving. The DUP candidate (Paul Girvan) is relatively low-profile but that may mean that he is less likely to have got people’s backs up than McCrea would have done.
Belfast South has relatively large votes for the Alliance Party and the Women’s Coalition who might vote tactically for a moderate Unionist candidate to keep the DUP out. It’s also one of the few constituencies where the SDLP has been on the up in recent years, due to demographic changes. There is an outside possibility of the SDLP taking it, but it’s no more than an outside possibility.
Can anyone elucidate why the GB parties don’t stand in NI? I realise that there are separate “ishoos” (nod to John O :)) in the six counties and GB parties are unlikely to win significant numbers of votes, but I thought that they might have stood.
The Conservatives still stand in one or two, but get thrashed out of site, losing their deposits. However effectively many of the political parties in NI and the UK are strongly linked. There traditionally has been a strong link between the Labour party and the SDLP and likewise with the Conservatives and the Ulster Unionists, which is strengthening as the Conservatives become more outspoken about the peace process. As for the Liberal Democrats there strong link is with the Alliance party in Northern Ireland.
After all JM only narrowly won a lot of votes, due to support from the UU’s and Jim Callaghan needed the votes of the SDLP on some occassions in the late 70s to push through labour policies and survive votes of no confidence
Number 5:
Can anyone elucidate why the GB parties don’t stand in NI?
The Conservatives have stood since 1992. After an initial first flush of support in 1992 (a good second in North Down, and respectable votes in a few other constituencies), they have consistently had their asses handed to them on a plate since. Their rhetoric means that they are only ever going to appeal to one side of the house anyway - my (rather sardonic) guess would be that a fair slice of their initial vote came from Unionist voters who viewed integration as a way of avoiding having to deal with their Nationalist neighbours.
As far as I know, the Lib Dems support Alliance, and Labour traditionally supported the SDLP, but now have members there on their own account after a lengthy court battle. I don’t think either would get anything other than a derisory vote if they stood.
I reckon if Michael McGimpsey gets the UUP nomination in South Belfast, he’ll win with the SDLP second - it is probably Northern Ireland’s most liberal constituency. I’d expect Lady Sylvia Hermon to retain North Down.
I think the DUP will probably take at least 7 of the Unionist majority seats, and quite possibly nine (Upper Bann and South Antrim being the ones that are hard to call). Lagan Valley will be an easy retention for the DUP, and East Antrim a certain gain.
On the nationalist side, I think the SDLP will retain Foyle and South Down, and Sinn Fein will take the other five.
Naturally, I find it sad that the Ulster Conservatives crashed and burned after a promising start.
Mike, WRT your plea, you are quite right. If this site were to get like Usenet, it would be finished.
Re 2 and 8, I imagine McGimpsey would be even less amenable to a merger with the Conservatives.
Yes, McGimpsey, like Hermon, would be opposed.
Personally, I think it would be quite a good idea. There are pro-Union voters who wouldn’t vote DUP if you paid them, but might find the idea of voting Conservative/UUP attractive. However, if the only two UUP MP’s were opposed, I couldn’t see it happening.
Looking at the odds for Northern Ireland I’m wondering whether there is some money to be made buying the SDLP. If they were to win two seats which looking at the last election, which seems highly likely then you could make a little bit of money very easily. After all they hold Foyle and South Down with 10,000 plus majorities.
Across the U.K.:
NI - A very good result for the DUP, I can well see the UUP down to 2 seats, the same as the SDLP.
SCOTLAND - A modest revival for the Conservatives (they’ll pick up maybe three or four more seats on top what is effectivly gaining Peter Duncan’s old seat). SNP will struggle again and may go down to as few as 4 seats. The LibDems I don’t think will advance at all here but will claim a few good second places. Glasgow will be the same bore - SNP talk a good fight but Labour hold everything - and Edinburgh will give us all a shock by Labour not losing a single seat, although the Tories will come a close second in SW and the LibDems in S.
WALES - I can well see PC taking back the seats they lost to Labour recently. The Conservatives will do well here, but the LibDems will hold onto their rural seats. Tories to pick up at least 3 if not more. LibDems again moving nowhere fast - mostly third place to second place but will claim winning Cardiff Central is a triumph. Seat to watch is Cardiff North.
Does anyone know who the replacement SDLP candidate for John Hume is in Foyle, please, and the party chances there?
RE WALES AND SCOTLAND: I suspect that the liberals and the conservatives to pick up seats, in both. The SNP to stay the same, gaining a seat in Dundee but losing in Angus, PC to gain one in Yynes Mon. In Wales the Lib Dems should take Cardiff Central, but might lose Brecon and Radnor. As for the Tories a definite pick up in Monmouth, probably followed by pick ups in Clywd West and Preseli Pembrokeshire. A very good performace and they will take the Vale of Glamorgan and Cardiff North. As for Scotland, look for a Lib Dem pick up in Aberdeen and possibly in Edinburgh. As for the Tories, they should hold Dumfries and take Angus. If the nationalist vote really declines then Perth and North Perthshire could go as well. Expect them to focus on trying to come close in one seat in Edinburgh as well.
As for labour they will have a relatively bad night in Scotland and Wales, obviously losing seats in Scotland anyway due to boundary changes, but also probably one to the Nats, one to the Lib Dems and one to the Tories. In Wales, expect 5 to go, Monmouth, Cardiff Central (both certs), Ynes Mon, Preseli Pembrokeshire and Clywd West.
I was in Cardiff North in 1997 and 2001 and I was amazed with the amount of signs for Julie Morgan (Labour)- in one street it was almost every house. However I have also seen the area decline- and I think the tories have successfully tapped into that.
Looking at the AM results- am I right in thinking Labour won it? If so, that is a bad sign for Morgan. Council results went to the Tories in the area I know (Whichurch).
RE Brecon and Radnor- look at the last AM results- a big swing to the Lib Dems for Kirsty Williams, who apparently is a bit of a tough campaigner. I think they’ll easily hold it if they run the same sort of campaign.
Wales is looking very good for the Tories. On a decent night they could win back virtually all the seats they lost in 97 (all the majorities are 6000 and less). Just wondering why they are doing so well their? Are the Welsh people really annoyed at devolution and the Welsh Assembly.
Sean, I agree with your analysis at 8, except for Lagan Valley. A lot of voters who have never voted DUP before will need to switch for Jeffrey to retain his seat. I think this one could be very close (you can quote this back at me on May 6th if I’m completely wrong :-).
WRT to your prediction of SF taking 5 seats - Newry & Armagh is up there with Peterborough as the seat most likely to change hands at the next election, and the chances of an agreed unionist candidate in Fermanagh & South Tyrone seems to be receding fast, so it sounds like a good call.
Andrew Milne - a large component of the majority in Foyle was the personal vote for John Hume who is not standing next time. In the local government elections on the same day the SDLP majority over SF was around 6,000. In the November 2003 Assembly elections it was around 1,500.
I think SDLP will hold on narrowly in Foyle. The new SDLP candidate Mark Durkan has the advantage of being party leader. The SF candidate Mitchel McLaughlin tends to react to difficult interview questions by placing his foot firmly in his mouth.
The danger for Durkan is the ghost of John Hume who is much more ‘green’ than the rest of his party.
Robert re. 14 - the new SDLP candidate is Mark Durkan who is also the new party leader. He has just received a ‘baby bounce’.
I heard him speak recently at Trinity College in Dublin where he gave an etymological definition of the word ‘politics’ - poly = many, tics = blood sucking leeches.
He is in a difficult position at he moment due to the fall out from the December non-agreement and the Northern Bank heist.
If Peace was ever to be properly sorted out in Northern Ireland with a properly functioning Northern Ireland Parliament, would Sinn Fein and the DUP, fade from exsistence. This may be very ignorant, but is the only reason people vote for them due to there stance on the peace process and there links to Eire and her Maj respectively.
Steve at 5: There used to be a decent-sized Northern Ireland Labour Party in the 60s, which would come a respectable second in a number of seats. But the idea of mainstream British parties standing there is associated strongly with unionism (since if Northern Ireland was ultimately to be separate in some form, what would the British parties be doing there?). Apart from the brief stab at it by the Tories mentioned in other posts, I think the prevailing view in recent years has been that this it would cause more trouble than it’s worth, and in addition split the vote of friendly parties already in place.
Andrew at 21: The Eire precedent suggests that people tend to stick with the historical factional parties for a long time, especially as initially they are likely to get a ‘peace dividend’ for having resolved their differences. It’s unfair on the moderate parties who have wanted peace on reasonable terms all along, but probably likely all the same.
As a matter of interest, my impression is that Sylvia Hermon generally votes with Labour on non-Northern Ireland issues, while David Trimble appears closer to the Conservatives. The DUP aren’t close to anyone.
Nick
Thanks, Lorcan; and are those other pensioners Eddie McGrady and Roy Beggs standing again (I see losses predicted in their seats above, and indeed Seamus Mallon? I would imagine that the big fellow will go on standing in N Antrim until his own personal last trump.
Incidentally, I don’t know whether others have noticed just how many elderly MPs throughout the UK have not announced their retirement (yet). By my calculation there are in this category 45 who will be over 65 by May 2005 including 14 over 70 (and one over 80).
This could presage quite a lot of late retirements triggering central party shortlists, or may be a response to the less easy option of the Lords nowadays …
Lorcan - Is Seamus Mallon retiring in Newry & Armagh?
I would guess that it will also be difficult for the SDLP to hold South Down when Eddie McGrady retires, probably in 2009/10. The future of the party at parliamentary level may well depend on Mark Durkan hanging on in Foyle, although I have my doubts he will succeed.
The interesting thing with the tories is wales is that while they are almost certain to win Pembrokeshire and Clywd West at the election, to my knowledge they don’t hold a single council seat in either constituency. Definetly not in Pembrokeshire. It just shows how different politics can be at a local and national level.
As a punter rather than political pundit, I never take too much notice of what activists (and especially candidates) tell you about a particular constituency. The latter have been lied to so often by the public that they begin to believe they can win.
There may be a window of opportunity to buy Tory seats at 190 if the poll rating improves with the announcement of the immigration policy but I would look to cash in quickly as I suspect this will be a temporary blip.
On the other hand, if you like the look of the Lib Dems at 75, you really have to sell the Tory position at 183 for no other reason than a strong LD performance will make it harder for the Tories to gain a net 18 seats.
Overall, unless you’ve already got a good position, I don’t think there’s much value in what I see on the spreads at the moment.
Robert, Seamus Mallon announced his retirement a few weeks ago, Eddie McGrady has announced his intention to stand again. Their pragmatic decisions probably affect the size of the SDLP defeat/hold respectively rather than changing the outcome in either seat. Don’t know about Roy Beggs but looks like a DUP gain in either case.
It is difficult to keep track of the retirements - I have a list of about 50 but I’m sure its incomplete. I am a constituent of the 80+ MP you mention and its not the sort of place HQ could parachute in a candidate without local ructions and multiple independents standing.
RE Older MP’s retiring. No doubt some of the old Labour MP’s will retire soon, seeing as New Labour now have total control over the selection process. No doubt Conservative Central Office will be hoping for similar as it now has the same powers as new labour to enforce centrally imposed 3 people lists on the seats. It is a good opportunity for New Labour to put in some more new labour appartchiks to replace those who will lose their seats at the election. As for the Tories one suspects they may implement all women shortlists in these seats, in the hope of getting a good press.
Dean, the proposed boundary changes in South Down (bringing in parts of Newry) don’t help the SDLP. The neighbouring constituency should be renamed ‘Half of Newry and Armagh’.
Re. Northern Ireland, the Alliance Party is also very much a sister party of the LDs.
I remember that Laurence Kennedy, the Conservative candidate for North Down in 92, got kidnapped (though he was released unharmed) in late 91. Ironically, the MP he stood against (the late Sir James Kilfedder, the sole UPUP (Ulster Popular Unionist Party) took the Tory Whip anyway.
Re: Scotland in 15 - Don’t forget East Dunbartonshire as another Labour seat under threat.
I was out leafletting there (for the Lib Dems) on Saturday. Campaign going well, working hard (it was sub-zero !), obviously can’t give too many details.
Why is Moray never mentioned as a possible SNP loss ? They start from just 30%, and the SNP appear to be down in the latest polls.
Lorcan, with Seamus Mallon I now have a list of 71 retiring MPs; I think this is pretty close to the current total, but I agree that there are likely to be quite a few further withdrawals over the next couple of months.
Mike - Any idea when the next Guardian ICM Poll is due? It seems a little late this month.
The latest ICM poll is in the Guardian Today. The Liberals are steady on 21% as are the Tories on 31%. Labour has fallen to 38% (down 2%) and others are up 2%. Also support for the War on Iraq is falling as well.
Just discovered its published today - Lab 38% (-2), Con 31% (n/c), LD 21% (n/c), Others 9% (+2).
Sopport for the war in Iraq stands at 35%.
Touche,Andrew!
RE Moray: Your right, there is no doubt it is a marginal. Indeed looking at the numbers it is potentially a four way marginal just as Inverness et al was a few years ago. I don’t know who you would make favourite to win the seat. A lot I suspect in a seat like that will come down to the candidates and the amount of campaigning they do.
Moray - With the LDs and Labour potentially battling it out in the neighbouring seat of Inverness perhaps this is an outside opportunity for the Tories. There don’t appear to any other obvious targets for them in this part of Scotland.
Yes your right. In terms of Tory targets in Scotland there are only 3 achievable one’s in the current circumstances interestingly all seats the SNP would lose. These are Dumfries and Galloway, which I have little doubt the Tories will pick up (MP for Galloway and Upper Nisdale Peter Duncan) is standing there. Then there is Angus and Moray, two seats the Tories haven’t held since the 80s. But both should be regarded as likely pick ups. If the nationalist continues to fall, then they both will fall to the Tories. Outside of these, they could also knock the SNP out in Perth and North Perthshire. Apart from this there are other targets are far out in terms of majorities, with them being too far back in Edinburgh South, East Renfrewshire (old Eastwood seat)and Stirling to challenge for the moment.
If the Tories were to take these four seats, and the SNP were not to pick any up, they would be left with only Alex Salmond at Westminster.
Andrew - I still can’t figure out why they are targeting Edinburgh S rather than SW where there appears to be less competition albeit the ‘incumbent’ MP is Al;istair Darling.
I agree with you. My only thought though is that while there is more competition in Edinburgh South, that the demographics of the seat are more in line with Tory hopes. The seat does not have the same extremes of wealth and poverty that Edinburgh South West has (which has inherited many Council Estates). There are also some very tory wards in Edinburgh South as well such as Morningside. However they really should target both seats properly. They ought to have the numbers to do so. They are a lot of conservatives in Edinburgh and a strong Student association.
They have though been unlucky in the sense that boundary changes in Edinburgh have semi screwed them, with Edinburgh Pentlands a very good Tory prospect having been spread around.
The ICM Guardian poll is exactly in line with an ICM poll earlier this month so there has been no change during January although Labour is down 2% on the last Guardian poll in December.
I tend to compare polls with the last one the pollster did rather than the last one that was published in a particular paper.
On Iraq ICM ask a more Blair friendly question than the others - it is “From what you have seen or heard, do you think the war against Iraq to remove Saddam Hussein was justified or unjustified?”.
Populus who usually record the most hostility to the Government on the issue have - ” Thinking about the build-up to the war in Iraq and everything that has happened since, was taking military action the right thing to do, or the wrong thing to do?”
Anyone who really believes the SNP are going to drop any seats at all to the Tories should be selling them at 5.8 - there is no way you can lose badly on that one.
Sorry, my detailed knowledge of Scottish Politics is even worse than my knowledge of Scottish geography, but please can someone explain why the Lib Dems are being billed as challengers in Inverness Thingy & Wotsit? Didn’t they come third last time, and get clobbered in the Holyrood contest as well? Surely the days of Sir Russell Johnstone have long gone…
Augustus - the boundaries have been redrawn (as they have across Scotland) and the Inverness seat now takes in quite a bit of Kennedy’s current seat (he’s fighting the new Ross/Skye/etc constituency). As I see it though, his vote in those areas isn’t necessarily transferrable to another LD candidate, so I called this for Labour in the competition.
Chris at 24
Pembrokeshire Council (an area I know well) is controlled by a bunch of “Independents” - there was in fact only one Tory candidate in last years elections (60 seats) - the Independent Council Leader and many of his cabinet were booted out by the electorate but have been replaced by another bunch of “Independents” who hog the Cabinet
They even have the nerve to call themselves the “Independent Political Group” - a contradiction in terms if ever I heard one !!
I have heard it said in many rural areas that Independent is really another word for Tory
Finally the Conservatives came second in the Euro vote in Pembs and the Labour incumbent is standing down
UNITE poll out today:
Lib Dem 34%, Lab 28%, Con 19%.
PS for information that’s among student voters.
Anon - what a shame the lazy blighters don’t bother to vote
Times piece about Tory private polling in the decapitation seats:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-1455403,00.html
Also, a rather good letter about the shortcomings of Voter Vault - a non-Muslim non-Conservative with the name Ghandi got sent a “Happy Eid” card.
BV - a bit short on information I thought. Don;’ private poll details have to be released if they’re published?
More Andrew Pierce (with New Labour sycophant Tom Baldwin) drivel dressed up into a (non) story. Ooooh - Top Tories have small majorities over the Lib Dems in some seats. What searing analysis. It ain’t Pullitzer prizewinning stuff is it?
BV at 45; thanks for the information. Do broadcasters still have rules about not covering party leaders campaigning in their own constituencies? If so, CK would get a lot of coverage (especially locally) by appearing in his “old” constituency, supporting the new candidate. A few well-honed soundbites for the London media, and still back home in time to bath the baby. Maybe it’s a Lib Dem gain after all.
Reading the Times articles recently, as well as most of the other dailies at work at lunchtime (my forward thinking employer supplies the papers at work at lunchtime), I’m feeling that the News International papers will take different lines:
The Times seems to be coming down on pro-New labour/anti-Tory lines.
The Sun seems to be drifting back towards the Tories and against New Labour - they’ve given far more of a hearing to Howard in recent months than I’d have anticipated.
The contribution of The Sun to the 92 election and subsequently is debatable, although Tony Blair seemed to consider it worthwhile to woo the paper. I wonder what the electoral effect would be of the Sun taking a pro-Tory line. That would leave the big papers as:
“Qualities”
Telegraph - Tory
Times - New Labour
Guardian - Labour/Liberal tendencies
Independent - Lib Dem, possibly Labour
“Tabloids”
Sun - Tory?
Express - Tory (very)
Mail - Tory (some possible New Labour tendencies?)
Mirror - Labour
Star - ?
Sport - Pro maximum-Nipple-Count Party
Andy -
I’d be surprised if the Sun openly backed the Conservative party at the election. I expect the Times to wholeheartedly back the Labour party, and the Sun to hedge its bets. I don’t think it will actually go as far as refusing to endorse a party, more likely it will give a very lukewarm Labour endorsement, full of caveats and then say how promising the Conservatives are.
Sarah - you’re not suggesting that we get tosh written in the newspapers are you? Heaven forbid!
The Times article isn’t tosh, merely a blinding glimpse of the obvious. We all know there will be close contests in the four seats mentioned. I suppose tomorrow they’ll run an article about how Labour’s private polling shows that Tony Blair is set to retain Sedgefield with a huge majority.
Lorcan, I’m pretty sure Jeffrey Donaldson will hold on comfortably in Lagan Valley. Look at the vote he got in the assembly elections.
Mike thanks for this thread…I enjoy reading about elections in far off places of which we know little (England
) but its nice to see so many comments about Wales and Scotland and Ulster/Northern Ireland.
The Tories do have councillors in Clywd West …and there is a council by election due there before the GE in a ward that makes up 10% of the electorate…worth watching for the trends etc
The Libs should hold their two seats and pick up cardiff central….where Plaid can run decent campaigns the libs will be hit due to their contribution to the shambles in the NHS in Wales,…easily the number one issue.
The Tories appear to be doing well but are divided over the future of the assembly. Nick Bourne the tory assembly leader supports extra powers for the assembly but Bill Wiggin the Shadow Welsh secretary supports abolition……
One thing that unites almost everyone in Wales is that the assembly has not really worked. This is partly due to a useless Governemnt first Lib Lab now just Lab and a need for Labour supporters to blame the “assembly” in the hope the voters don’t blame Labour Councils, MPs etc. The previous administration set up an enquiry into the future of the Assembly (the Richards Commission) which as part of its work commissioned a poll which showed that 49% of people would support the assembly being given additional powers. The commission produced a detailed set of proposals, which although not what Plaid would want at least offer a reasonable step forward. Labour are all over the place on this as it would mean the number of MPs being reduced so a few of them would be picking up p45s (and of course reducing the prospects of labour majorities in the British/english parliament). Whilst these are chattering class issues civic society(chattering classes) is much bigger and broader than in england and these people are certain to vote.
In terms of the election propects it will be hard for Plaid to win Ynys Mon as an incumbant has never lost since WW2…..still there is always a first time.
The key election for Plaid is of course the assembly election. Therefore watch out for seats where the Plaid share increases at the GE to spot seats they will win in the assembly election. Keep an eye out for Preseli Pembroke where there is a v good, young Plaid candidate. Plaid has huge support amongst under 25s but this does not always translate into votes.
In Scotland one of the reasons that seats such as Moray look marginal is because incumbants stood down last time. I think the Tories will struggle to pick up more than one or two from the SNP who will pick up a couple from labour to compensate.
Cymru Mark - not sure on your comment re the “Lib Dems contibution to the NHS shambles”. It’s clear from the campaigning I do that the days of the Labour/Lib Dem administration in Cardiff Bay are a distant memory.
From a Cardiff perspective, rebanding will hit Labour hard and I expect them to lose both Cardiff Central and Cardiff North. A Lib Dem and a Tory gain respectively.
Also expect a very strong second place from the Lib Dems in Cardiff South & Penarth.
Re 55, I remember the bit in Yes Prime Minister where the papers are discussed: ‘The Times is read by those who run the country, the Guardian is read by people who think they ought to run the country, and the Sun is read by those who don’t care who’s running the country, as long as she’s got big tits’
Richard (Google is a wonderful thing) - full quote is:
Jim Hacker: “Don’t tell me about the press. I know exactly who reads the papers: The Daily Mirror is read by people who think they run the country; The Guardian is read by people who think they ought to run the country; The Times is read by people who actually do run the country; The Daily Mail is read by the wives of the people who run the country; The Financial Times is read by people who own the country; The Morning Star is read by people who think the country ought to be run by another country; And the Daily Telegraph is read by people who think it is.”
Sir Humphrey: “Prime Minister, what about the people who read the Sun?”
Bernard Woolley: “Sun readers don’t care who runs the country, as long as she’s got big tits.”
Excellent stuff. I think it was the sharpest politcal comedy that I have ever seen.
re 61 Craig. Yes but people will be reminded nearer and nearer to polling day….if you read my post you will see it mentions where Plaid are well organised the LD vote will be hit…in Conwy in June the LDs lost half their councillors….
Craig….btw which constituency in Cardiff where the Lib dem councillor has joined Plaid?
Couple of quotes from that Times article.
“Senior Tories acknowledged yesterday that there was a growing sense of gloom. Although others went out of their way to praise the “energy and clarity of purpose” that they say Mr Crosby has injected, few had a kind word to say about Lord Saatchi and Liam Fox, the party’s co-chairmen.
“They are never in the campaign HQ and they are never on TV — we don’t know what they are doing,” a Conservative MP said. There was criticism of Mr Howard’s increasing reliance on a “small clique of advisers”.” ……
“Fraser Kemp, Labour’s campaign spokesperson, said: “I know Lynton Crosby is denying he even made these remarks, but the fact is he’s got form on this issue. One of his favourite tactics is to sneak into power by lulling Labor voters in Australia into thinking they need not bother turning out because the Labor Party have already won.” ”
Sounds like a Baldrick cunning plan to me. But arent Tories setting the agenda - even if I dont like the direction they are taking.
An ultra low turnout election with Labour supporters thinking they dont need to turn out could throw all the seat calculators of their bearings.
More on the subject of the Fourth Estate - what about the London Evening Standard? OK, I know it is only a “local” paper, but it is read extensively in the South East. It was giving the Tories a real hammering last night. Will it come out for Labour, or try to be selective and give support to specific candidates in certain seats because of personalities and local issues?
Be very sceptical about the political coverage from the Times. With the exception of Peter Ridell, the rest are pretty much new labour stooges. Half the stories look like they come directly from Downing Street. Indeed there main political journalist Tom Baldwin used to be Alastair Campbell’s stooge.
The answer is that they are setting the agenda and running at the moment what looks like a slick campaign. Labour’s main fear is still though the issue of turnout, which if it is low will really damage labour. Personally I expect turnout to be 50%. The interesting thing regarding all these announcements from the Tories is whether they will get any uplift in the polls. The one’s out next week will be crucial in pointing out whether they have any chance of success.
Cymrymark,
Cardiff Central, Cathays ward I think.
The Evening Standard will probably come out for labour, if it can get over its feud with Mayor Ken. It might though endorse certain candidates, though I doubt it. The only paper that endorses candidates still is the Scotsman I think.
Icarus - as was mentioned yesterday, Aussies have compulsory voting. Even though the penalties aren’t great T/O was around 94% apparently.
However, his main thrust seems to be spend nothing nationally and a lot locally - this supports the stealth approach
Pregethwr - is that Cathay(s) Specific(ally) [Groan]
I’m not so sure about the Standard. It gave very favourable coverage to the James Report last week; many of its editorials are broadly supportive of the Conservatives as well.
The Times are playing a foolish game commercially. Even with a weak leader, few policies, no money and no organisation and huge Labour poll leads in 2001 - Times readers still backed the Tories by 42-28% (from memory) over Labour (Source:MORI). By constantly trashing the Tories, The Times risks alienating a number of their core ABC1 readership.
Rather like the FT.
Re the recent Polls - is there any information on how likely people are to vote? I assume the figures presented are for those who say they are certain to vote.
If interview 1000 people and only 50% say they are certain to vote does that double the margin of error when you get to the percentages for each party?
Anthony Wells is the best person to answer your question Icarus. I understand that most pollsters do apply a variety of weightings by likelihood to vote, but only MORI publish a figure for those who say they are certain to vote. Yougov apply no weighting to voting likelihood. Their figures are all voters naming a party.
77 - I think it would multiply the margin of error by 1.41 (square root of 2) but as Sean says, Anthony is the expert.
60 - Mark, its always good to hear from the colonies as well!
You’ve mentioned the incompetence of the former Lab/LD administration in the Welsh Assembly on a number of occasions. I don’t pretend to know a great deal about Welsh politics so can you explain why those parties either advanced or stood still in the last assembly elections while Plaid appear to have gone backwards.
Sorry, 80 was me.
Icarus - the pollsters use different techniques on determining likely voters.
As Sean says, YouGov include everyone who indicates there is any chance whatsoever of them voting.
Communicate include all thouse who say their chance of voting is above 4/10, and also weight by it.
NOP, ICM and Populus all weight by likelihood of voting. This means they exclude people who say they definitely won’t vote, and get hte others to make their likelihood of voting out of 10. Someone who says they are 10/10 likely to vote is given 5 times as much weight as someone who says they are only 2/10 likely to vote (and so on). ICM also factor in a question about how regularly people have voted in the past when coming up with weights.
Finally, MORI include only those who say they are 10/10 likely to vote. This is normally about 50% of people.
In terms of margin of error, as far as I am aware - and I’m not a mathematician - you should calculate it from the number of people remaining *after* any filters. For example a MORI poll normally has a sample of 2,000, so the margin of error on most MORI questions will be about 2%. On voting intention though MORI have excluded half their sample, so the effective sample is only c. 1,000 and the margin of error is around 3%.
I wouldn’t get that het up about tiny changes in the margin of error - it is, after all, a calculation based on what the margin of error would be in a true random sample, and phone polls aren’t true random samples. Unless a poll has an unusually small or large sample just remember that it has a margin of error of about 3%.
evening standard is owned by the mail so it unlikely to come out as labour, although in an interview the owner did come across as quite moderate,
as for setting the agenda, its january, tax and immigration can’t run for 3 months surley, better for labour to get it out the way and give themselves time to paint the tories as extreamists?
The problem for labour is that people are bored of the tories are extremists argument. Instead labour will have to try and move the agenda onto the NHS and Education. Expect the Tories though to continue there assault with some stuff about law and order next week followed by a dose on Europe at a Guess. The problem for the Government is that it is only clearly ahead of the Tories on Education and Health. Its lead on issues such as pensions for example has gone away.
Andrew Milne the tories arnt extreamists!!! yesterday we saw the proposals as one of the most draconian asylum policies ever. how do you tell someone who is going die because they were fighting for the same beliefes and principles as what our nation represents, sorry you know your no 8,001. This will create more illegal immigration as people wont declare.
yesterday, hearing micheal howard speak, i felt ashamed to be British
Guys - remember Mike’s exhortation, let’s keep the temperature down a bit please.
Cymru Mark - It was the Cathays ward. Very unlikely to make any difference.
I agree with Andrew ref. Tories are nutters arguement. That’s why Labour won’t attack Howard’s immigration policies (in fact, they may well steel them at some point!). Labour are having trouble knowing what to do with the Tories. Are they a threat? Because people don’t think they are? Are low taxes an evil? The people hate paying tax. Is controlled immigration wrong? Not when the people agree etc etc
Anthony - thanks for that (82). The danger with polls is it is easy to justify adjustments to the figures so that they support your point of view. I do think differential turnout will be the “issue” for us poloraks to analyse after the election.
Dean…I wrote a long and quite brilliant analysis of what is happening wales but the computerdied on me…in summary….
in 2003 Plaid ran a poor national campaign…plus a very clver labour operatiopn to dampne interest blame the assembly in general etc (and v good results for them in Rhondda) rather than their own useless ness…then get lots of their people on postal votes etc….we lost both conwy and Llanelli on the postal vote alone…
The lib dems stood still because they spent a fortune on the camapign most of whihc wasa donation from the British(English party)
in the local elections Plaid either matched or improved on its best ever showing in most of wales but one very bad result (RCT) skewed the picture. The Tories made a little progress from a low base…the LD well organised campaign in cardiff delivered an excellent result but they only managed limited progress elsewhere(including Swansea and Bridgend) and remain some distance behind Labour and plaid in terms of numbers of councillors…..Labour got their worst ever result in local elections…
In the Euros the Plaid result was well down compared to our best ever year 1999 but higher than at any previous Wales wide election. Compare the Lib/Lab/con results to their best ever results and they to are well down (Lib dems were 5th)………..
So Labour are down, the Libs making slow progress, Plaid holding steady Tories recovering….
If I was an english Lib dem in a Labour seat I would want to know why £250,000 was given to the Welsh party who had helped create record waiting lists in wales…
Cymrumark is right the Lib Dems spent double the Tories 3-4 times Plaid and the same as Labour, despite Labour fighting 30+ seats seriously while the Libs fought 4-5 tops.
I had the pleasure of seeing Jenny Randerson’s face as the results came in, looked like she had swallowed a wasps nest, mind losing her cushy job can have that effect on someone, as can the knowledge that you just blew £1/4m, to absolute no result.
So which seats are likely to change hands in the next election in Wales? Cardiff Central and Monmouth seem certainties but what about the rest? Will PC gain Ynes Mon, Labour Camarthen West et al, Tories Clywd West, Preseli Pembrokeshire and Cardiff North?
Tom 85 - dont be ridiculous! Michael Howard was expounding a sensible and measure immigration policy. Something we have not had for at least 7 years now. We cannot carry on allowing Uncle Tom Cobbleigh and all his relations into this country. We are the laughing stock of Europe over our lax policy and appalling administration of the system.
My fear is that uncontrolled immigration will lead to the likes of the BNP gaining support and fomenting racial tension. Only by a mainstream party taking on this issue and having the courage to speak out will we deprive the likes of the BNP and UKIP of their space to move politically!
My predictions for Wales would be
Monmouth - Certain to go
Cardiff Central - Closer than predicted but hard to see anything than a Lib Dem win
Ynys Mon - Labour to hold
Brecon and Radnorshire - Should be close, would bet on a Tory win, but don’t know the area very well.
Ceredigion - Close but Simon Thomas To hang on
Clwyd West - Should go, but then should have gone last time, and never should have been won in the first place…
Preseli Pembs - Should be a Tory pickup, but I don’t know much about it.
Vale of Glamorgan - Labour hold
Cardiff North - Tories piling in resources, would be there jewel in the crown, will be close, if not this time definitely a Tory pickup next time.
Rest, including Conwy, Camarthen West etc will all be safe will predict that the Tories will get 2x the combined Plaid and Lib Dem vote.
Forward Wales to do nothing, Respect to do less, BNP might pickup a noticeable vote in one seat.
Oh and lots more Labour women.
I understand its a relative longshot but how is South Pembs looking? A 6% swing would see Labour lose the seat, especially if Plaid recover sufficiently to enable a Tory gain on about 34%.
Obviously not being especially knowledgeable on that particular niche of Welsh politics it would be foolish to offer a prediction; but I would be interested in other peoples all the same.
pregethwr….you always make me laugh and I liked your comments about Jenny randerson…
On the predictions is the “twice the Ld and Plaid” prediction for the tories on national vote share or in the seats you mentioned? You may well be right for national vote share as if Plaid and Lds hold the same they have 29% and the tories could match that….on the seats seems unlikely….
There may be a switch from lab to Plaid in Carmarthen west and sth Pembrokes but to “let the tories in” would require Labour losing 10% plus…although there was a big drop in Labour support last time that would be huge…..if it was 12 % and all went to Plaid…Plaid win!
There may be an Adam Price factor in Carmarthenshire as he get lots of good local press combined with high national profile which will impact on llanelli as well….
Pregethwr - I like your predictions. My comments are
Monmouth - Tory gain.
Cardiff Central - Easy Lib Dem win. Nothing from Labour on the ground.
Ynys Mon - Labour to hold (just).
Brecon and Radnorshire - Lib Dems much better organised than last time when the Tories fielded Felix Aubel so a comfortable win.
Ceredigion - Lib Dems to push Plaid who should just hang on.
Clwyd West - Tory gain
Preseli Pembs - My home patch - Labour to hang on.
Vale of Glamorgan - Labour hold.
Cardiff North - Tories have a good local election base now and should take it.
Cymrumark, thanks for the compliment, can’t say the deadly duo of Mike German and Jenny R are my favourite welsh pols.
Craig, you are probably right on Cardiff Central, but the Libs tend not to win in landslides. Why Labour on Preseli Pembs? It seems to me that the Tories aren’t doing as much as they should, but it is just an impression.
Cardiff North should be Tory, and they do have a good base there now, that said Julie is defending a big majority and will be hard to overhaul in one election.
Realisticly thinking that Plaid will automatically gain 12% with a marginal increase in the other parties share of the vote seems, to me, fanciful. I am aware of the statistics and vote shares of the parties; im more interesting in whats happening in the seat itself at the present time- perhaps you agree that is more relevant! Reasoned objectivity should be the basis for the site, as I believe it is 90% of the time.
Pregethwr - In preseli Pembs Jackie Lawrence is perceived as being a good local MP and should carry her successor as there is not much activity from any of the other parties. I’d hate to see it return a Tory as well!!
In Cardiff North, I think Julie Morgan will suffer from a Council Tax Rebanding backlash. Areas like Rhiwbina, Llanishen, Whitchurch and Lisvane should go Tory as they did in the locals. Gabalfa, Heath and Llandaff North returned Lib Dems at the locals and her only hope is if a significant number return to Labour at the GE. I really can’t see it. Locally, Labour now only have 3 cllrs in the constituency compared to 6 Lib Dems and 12 Tories.
In Cardiff Central, if the students are around it will be a landslide to the Lib Dems, otherwise a comfortable win.
Some actual betting - Tories and Labour selling off on Betfair. Someone has tried to buy about £1000 of the LibDems at 72.4 - so all those whose mouths are bigger than their wallets now have a great chance to remedy matters! Well maybe
I think there is value in selling the Libs at that spread. Don’t have enough money to lose to do spreads though
£1000 a seat at 72.4, well you could lose £30k if things go badly wrong, and win realistically no more than £10k.
I don’t agree with your assessment of the risk - if there is a poll during the campaign which put the LDs level with the Tories all kinds of things become possible - in my view that is more likely than the LibDems actually dropping seats though both are improbable. Agree not a great bet though.
Very interesting that someone with real money would choose to do this - not likely to be an LD I would suspect. Someone bought £3k at 74 a while back
The Lib Dem posters are deluding themselves if they really believe that they will be level pegging with the Tories in a General Election opinion poll. Also, their gains from the Tories will be less than 5, if they’re lucky
40-41: Notwithstanding its reputation, Morningside isn’t ‘very Tory’. There are two Morningside wards: one of them is Lib Dem-held (marginally at a recent council by-election, massively before then), and the other is a semi-marginal (10% maj. or so) Tory ward (held from the Lib Dems). In fact, in the new Edinburgh South, there are only two Tory wards, and these are the two ex-Pentlands ones. All the other historically Tory wards in South (in the Merchiston-Morningside- Newington area) are pretty strongly Lib Dem these days, and have been for at least a decade. I suspect that the Tories are focussing on South rather than South West largely because South doesn’t have anything like the same number of strongly Labour areas, particularly council schemes, that South West does, where the Tories are very weak.
Re Scottish results in general: Inverness to remain Labour, as Kennedy’s personal vote won’t transfer to the new seat; Moray to remain SNP unless there’s nationalist ennui on the day in which case I’d see the Tories as main challengers; both D&G seats to go Tory; Dundee East and Ochil to go SNP; and Aberdeen South, Angus, East Dunbartonshire and Edinburgh South to be too close to call.
Re Northern Ireland: Belfast South could be close if there’s no unionist pact (by which I mean that the SDLP could come through the middle). I don’t know who the DUP have got in mind as a possible candidate: there was talk in the local press about Diane Dodds a while back. I suspect Durcan and McGrady will both hang on by a whisker in their respective seats. Elsewhere: Upper Bann is hard to call: Trimble was streets ahead of the field for first preferences in Nov 2003, but a lot has happened since then…
These press coverage stories are interesting. The Times is becoming a farce, the world knows that Baldwin only writes what he is told and Sieghart writes what she thinks will please Blair.
Andrew Pierce is fun for gossip but serious political commentary, well!!
In 1997 Mr Max Hastings, as Standard editor endorsed Labour. He then collected his “gong” and now seems to find Blair less exciting than before.
The current editor is Mrs Tom Bower, I can fuly understand where she comes from with regard to immigration, but her hubbie is no fan of the Blair clique. It could be very, very interesting.
Murdoch makes and destroys politicians according to circumstances, he will look at things carefully and I suspect “encourage” movement when he believes the electorate is changing.
What on earth the Times will do with that stable of Blairite stooges when Murdoch moves will be very funny.
For saddened Times readers look how good Anthony Howard, a true man of the left, but with a deep understanding of politics and politicians of every stripe.
Can anyone imagine him allowing his name to go over the garbage written by Baldwin-Sieghart!
Perhaps the whole country will get a phoney Lib Dem leaflet with “it’s two horse race….” - which is true - Tory and Labour, with the Lib Dems as also rans….
The best, most intelligent political commentator in the UK - consistently fair, balanced, rational and well-informed is Steve Richards of the Independent (not a Tory!) - the worst is the ghastly and shrilly biased Sieghart on The Times…..
I bet you liked his article today Sarah
Sarah 105 - if you look at Baxter’s graph there was a poll in 2003 where LD and Con were the same. I don’t expect it will happen in the campaign but you never know …
Do you concede we’ll make 5 net gains from you then?
#111 - lets make it accurate here, the lib dems and the tories have never had an equal share in an opinion poll in this parliament. The closest they have been is 32/30 (spetember ‘03)
Thanks Rob - I knew they’d been close, the graph is misleading.
Must admit, that poll was a bit close for comfort
I think a better graph should be provided on Baxter’s (brilliant) website, preferably one with a thinner line!
Rob, what it does underline is that most switching appears to be Lab/LD, with the Tories very consistent at or around 32%
Re 60 - Mark I tend to agree with you on Tory pickups from the SNP. I think Angus is likely to go Tory but will probably be offset by a gain in Dundee East which has gained some very strongly SNP wards from Angus. Can’t see Moray changing hands though, unlike Angus the SNP MP is pretty good and the Tories have little strength in terms of members in the area. I would also think that if the SNP were really under threat in Moray they could call in plenty of members from neighbouring Banff & Buchan. The problem for the SNP is convincing their core vote that its worth voting in a Westminster election. It does seem that compared to Holyrood elections UK-wide elections are just an expensive irritant.
As I’ve said before I excpect both the seats in the Dumfries & Galloway area to go Tory. Probably closer in D&G than DC&T.
Elsewhere in Scotland the Lib Dems have a good candidate in East Dunbartonshire and should win their. Don’t think Aberdeen South or Inverness will be easy pickups. Both Labour incumbents are pretty good allthough there is a decent nationalist vote to squeeze in Inverness and a fairly decent Tory vote In Aberdeen South.
There have been one or two unatributed quotes from SNP insiders on the eve of their election launch. They were talking in terms of 4-6 seats. Intrestingly Inverness was never mentioned as an SNP pickup, most of the focus was on winning Dundee East and Ochil & South Perthshire. On the bright side the decision of Tommy Sheridan to stand down as leader of the SSP should help the SNP as they were hit hardest by them in the 2003 election.
Just on Edinburgh South. I live in Marhmont (the ward of the Lib Dem candidate) and despite this seat being a potential three way marginal we haven’t received anything from any of the parties in the last 2-3 months. Maybe its because we’re in a very safe Lib Dem ward but I’d still excpect some activity from one or other of the Parties. This is in sharp contrast to my regular visits home to West Linton where the Tories have delivered numerous letters and surveys with nothing,as yet, from the other parties.
Tonight’s London Evening Standard has a story about ANOTHER Tory Candidate with a deselection crisis on her hands - Mrs Jobson, in Chatham and Aylesford. Exrraordinary General Meeting tomorrow night. One anonymous source is reported as saying that they want her out, not because she is a woman but because she is useless.
I’m going to the AGM in two weeks, as far as I know there is no attempt to deselect our candidate- although keeping a one for more than 6 months is becoming a rarity now!
Anne Jobson (OBE) fought Exeter last time and was duly thrashed but that I think had more to do with the local party than her. Caused a bit of a stir when she quit for greener pastures in Kent.
Actually there was a poll where all 3 parties had 31… can’t remember exactly when but for some funny reason it stuck in my mind…
Re: Jon at 95.
From what I’ve heard the Tory campaign in South Pembs is extremely upbeat - apparentely the Labour MP’s views on hunting have gone down like a lead balloon. There’s certainly a chance, especially if the core Labour vote starts deserting for Plaid or the LibDems…
From a Lib Dem perspective Sarah J’s mixture of certainty and complacency is always hugely reassuring.
Re. 109, Richards is often good, but he’s certainly not fair, balanced or well-informed on Europe. Almost every time he mentions the European Constitution, it’s a dose of Europhilia (usually the condescending nonsense, including portrayal of all Eurosceptics as Little Englanders, which is de rigeur at the Indy) and (I paraphrase) ‘the country wouldn’t dare vote no if the government made it a Europe: In or Out question’. Oh really? If the government tried to be cute in that way, I suspect a No vote would be even more likely. In fact, I seem to remember, UKIP’s bandwagon really started rolling after Blair, while announcing his u-turn over a referendum on the European Constitution, said it would be a make or break vote on the UK’s future in the EU.
It’s also no small irony that the Independent, which loves the European Constitution so much, has made me less likely to vote for the European Constitution through its supercilious condescension towards those who oppose it.
As I’ve probably mentioned previously, Master Hari’s column last June(labelling the Greens as even more Eurosceptic than UKIP) made me go out and vote for the Greens instead of my own party!
If I do vote for the European Constitution in a referendum, it’ll be thanks to the positive portrayal of the European Constitution I heard in my WEA group, happily free from the personal abuse directed towards Eurosceptics.
Sieghart isn’t totally in Blair’s pocket - she can’t be, when she’s a centre-left Eurosceptic (she’s opposed to the Euro, anyway).
All the same, Private Eye’s attacks on her (’Mary Ann Bighead’) usually make me laugh!
I’ve noticed my typing is piss poor this evening, 5 hours of stuffing envelopes can get slightly tiresome!
I apologise for my butchering of the English language in previous posts!
Re. 107, Tony Howard is superb, and it’s really good that his column is back (after he took a break from it while he was writing his biography of Cardinal Basil Hulme). His biography of Rab Butler was excellent (it’s a tribute to his understanding of politics and politicians that Butler approached him to be his biographer despite Howard’s own political colours). I don’t know if it’s still in print, but anyone who wants to read it could probably find a copy in a second-hand bookshop (I think it was published in 86).
Jon at 43: I’ve just put my money where my mouth is - sold the SNP at 5.75 on IG. I feel rather wicked - it’s the first time I’ve ever bet with a bookmaker.
Must admit I expected the SNP to do well but everyone one this site disagrees so I sold them too… suits the rest of my bets. I feel quite good about it though given their unifying thread is hatred of English people which funnily enough doesn’t do it for me!
I have been chatting to a lib dem ‘friend’ in Hereford today and she is sweating buckets about Mr Keetch. Apparently the tory candidate, Virginia Taylor, is one of the terrifyingly efficient Tory women types who is all over the press most days. She privatly conceded that the lib dem MP would loose to Mrs Taylor by a fairly large margin, as Mrs Taylor slashed the Liberal Democrat majority by 85% from 6,648 to 968. Things have been going downhill for the libdems there locally too, apparently they have lost control of the council to a tory/independant coalition.
I was campaigning in Selby constituency on saturday and found a lot of switchers from labour to the conservatives, but also interestingly a lot of lib dem switchers to the conservatives. While i think the latter point can be explained by the area i was canvassing falling into the City of York council area, where the lib dem council are generally very unpopular for mad taxes and expensive car parking, the former point, along with the only recent election result from Selby (conservatives taking 65% of the vote in a selby town council ward, an apparent labour stronghold) and to conservatives controlling Selby council, seems to point to a probable tory gain in selby come May.
re 129: Sorry, should have said that it was the 2001 election where Mrs Taylor slashed the MP’s majority!
Maddy - the travails of Mr Keetch have been well trailed here.
RE SNP. Looks like you got a very generous price on the SNP particularly when compared to Spreadfair where you have to sell them at least a seat lower. Realistically the most they could get 7 (winning Ochil and South Perthshire, Western Isles and Dundee East). However judging from there performance at the last election, they have problems getting there voters to turn out a Westminster. In return the SNP are therefore very vulnerable in Angus, Moray and somewhat vulnerable in Perth and North Perthshire. I think though that whatever happens the SNP is likely to fall short in the Western Isles and is likely to lose Angus and possibly the perthshire seat. Seems like a decent bet to me.
Dean at 123 - I’m glad you appreciate my pithy comments - invariably backed up by facts. I apologise for not signing up to the excitable Lib Dem “Tories are doomed” fantasy peddled by the feverish (and usually wrong) Lord Rennard. If anyone’s complacent, it’s the Lib Dems - Do you really think the Tories in the “decapitation” seats are sitting around knitting whilst you put out multiple Foci? It ain’t happening…..