Is May 5th a certainty?
January 27th, 2005-
Is this snap election talk just that - talk?
With the betting exchange, Betfair, opening a new market on whether or not the General Election will be on the widely forcast date of May 5 there’s renewed specualation this morning that a snap election might be in the offiing.
This has been fuelled by Alastair Campbell making a quiet return to full-time return to politics. According to a report in the Scotsman Mr Campbell’s daily attendance at Labour’s new campaign HQ in London, along with increasing input from another architect of New Labour, Peter Mandelson, suggests Mr Blair has reconstructed his “dream team” earlier than most observers were expecting. The heightened preparations for the election are fuelling the hopes of some Labour MPs that the Mr Blair will go to the country before the 5 May date many have pencilled in for the poll.
We should get a clear pointer in a matter of days rather than weeks. In an astute article in the Independent in December Michael Brown argued that the timing of the budget could be very significant - and we should know the date of that quite soon.
This was from the piece: Budgets are usually held in the second or third week of March. This would not be possible if Parliament had already been dissolved. But if there is a budget on 2 March (notice of this would be given some weeks ahead), be on your guard for an announcement, immediately afterwards, of an election on 31 March. Remember that, in 1992, John Major dissolved Parliament 48 hours after an early March budget. I do not expect this to happen. However, if it does, you read it here first.
On the main Betfair “Election Date” market the price on it being held between April and June is 1/12. But the new market is specifically on whether or not it will be on May 5th. As of the time of writing just £40 had been matched and there are no interesting prices either side.
THANK YOU to those taking part in the discussions for lowering the temperature of the debates. This is going to be much more challenging as we get closer to the date, May 5th or not, and let’s try to keep this as a site where people of all allegiances are involved.
From a personal perspective I am currently changing jobs and have arranged my leaving and start dates so that I will be able to devote myself full-time to Politicalbetting during the election campaign - provided it is on May 5th! As well as more comprehensive articles this will allow me to moderate actively in a way that I do not have the time to do at the moment - but it is far better if we are self-policing.
Mike Smithson
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Mike, do you have a hat? If the election is before May 5, send it along and I will eat it, wrapped in that copy of the Scotsman.
Nick
Thank you Nick - I find that reassuring. I’ve taken a huge personal gamble on May 5th because I’m changing jobs and have arranged to have part of March, the whole of April and early May off - all so I can work full-time on the site throughout the campaign.
Any other date and I’m screwed.
Congratulations on the new job Mike, and apologies for allowing self-policing to slip yesterday.
If the GE isn’t May 5, you’ll just have to drum up betting interest in the locals! Roughton must be able to attract stacks of money.
Well, Mike (2), thankyou kind sir
I think a precondition of an earlier election is that Sunday’s poll in Iraq goes well (i.e. peacefully and is credible) - or can be spun so. I’ve a feeling most of us here would agree on the likelihood of that…
Also, the May 5 date has been so touted that to go earlier will open Labour to cries of “scuttle” - a point of which I’m sure they’re well aware.
And it would mean lower turnout for the County elections, which would mean worse results in those for Labour than if it was held on the same day as the GE.
On the plus side (for politics junkies of all colours, and none), it would mean we’d get a result from Basildon after 11, and not have to wait till midnight (or after) for the Edgbaston result.
Losing County Council election seats would be a very poor backdrop to the start of Labour’s election campaign, so (barring accidents) it really has to be May 5th. I understand also that Northern Ireland’s local elections have been brought forward to May 5th, which is a pretty big hint.
5 - Birmingham (as of last year) no longer elects in thirds, so there won’t be any locals in Edgbaston on 5th May or any other date this year.
Mike,
If you have another hat after Nick has eaten the first I’ll have it.
May the 5th, or after if something odd happens. All the stories are just them playing with CCO and Cowley St.
Well done on the new job, Mike.
Book Value at 3 - I would keep your money in your pocket on the Roughton issue for now. A friend of a friend of a friend tells me it could be all up in the air as there are footpath problems on Brownfields Road and this caused ructions at the last parish council meeting - as many as a dozen votes could ride on it. You heard it here first.
Mike, If you old job still requires trips to Bermuda and other hardship destinations can I apply?
You would not like Bermuda John. Nobody back home thinks you are working and when I try to share the experience of sitting on the beach with the sea gently patting against the rocks I get short shrift from my colleagues when I call them on my mobile. I’ve now got one of those camera phones and I try to involve them in what I’m doing by sending back pictures of me “working hard” over a long lunch at the sea-front.
People are so un grateful.
Book Value - Birmingham certainly does still elect by thirds, as do all Mets. It didn’t last year only because of boundary changes, hence the “all-out” election. However, you are correct that there will be no local elections this year in Birmingham - it’s the “fallow year” for the mets. Next locals in Brum will be 2006, then 2007, 2008 and another fallow year in 2009, before the cycle starts again.
12 - ah, I see: thanks.
Richard @ 5: There’s no local elections in Brum this year and given the incompetency of the Elections office at times, I wouldn’t expect any result from Edgbaston before 12 at the earliest.
It would be amazing to have the election before 5th May. I think Blair will want to have a give-away budget and let the effects seep into the public consciousness. It is also as likely to catch his own party on the hop in some areas, as it is to surprise the opposition.
The government just moved the Northern Ireland local elections to May 5th. It would look a bit stupid if they then called the general election early.
Re. 14, I take your point, but my point at 5 was that - if the GE is not held on the same day as the County elections - it would enable a result from Basildon just after 11pm (as happened in 1992). As polling day coincided with the County elections in 97 and 01, the Basildon result came through after midnight.
Rik - it’s more than seeping into public consciouness - its their pay slips as well. If Gordy produces some tax sweeteners in the Budget, then by the end of April everyone on PAYE will have had at least one pay cheque that reflects this bri .. er .. reflection of the Governments good management of the nation’s finances. So May 5th is the logical date to go - being the first Thursday after the end of the first month of the new financial year (As well as local elections etc)
2006 however, is likely to see some recouping of the IFS predicted £11 billion shortfall in the Govt.’s finances, so don’t be in too much of a hurry to rush out and spend any extra cash around election time
PS Has anyone else noticed how the Times seems to be a doppleganger for PB.com? Both Tim Hames and Peter Riddell this week seem to have done all their primary research here. Does this mean Uncle Rupe has sacked all the researchers at New International or that the authoritative debates on this site are now seeping into general circulation ?
Sorry tax theory doesnt work - will take much longer than that for any unexpected changes in income tax thresholds etc to get into pay packets. The inflation linking uprating of thresholds wont be significant.
If the polls show a surge for the Tories - perhaps just because we are hearing them again (like the Lib Dem election bounce) - it may not matter what in particular they are talking about - then will election be earlier or later than expected?
An economist writes: Imagine if £11bn extra were taken in tax next year. This would be equivalent to just under 1% of national income. So most people would see their incomes 1% lower than otherwise. However with growth around 2.5% this means that people’s incomes will just rise at about 1.5% rather than 2.5%… so most people won’t notice. In fact tax rises this way happen the whole time - it’s rare that they are large enough to be more than economic growth - though that did happen in about 1994 when low wage growth and tax increases coincided…
Ed Balls has already had his election leaflet printed and stored in Normanton Town Hall . The Liberal Democrats will be asking if the Town Council is going to charge him for using a public building.
I seem to remember gorden brown stating that it would not be a ‘give away’ budget somewhere, but i very much doubt he will do anything stupid. it will probably be a fairly boring budget like last years, lest tories and political commentators start shouting BRIBE! at the top of their voices.
Definitely 5/5/05.
Blair is being hyped in a monstrous ‘Jo’n’ Tony’ programme on thne Beeb, searching for the yoof vote, and he’s up in Oldham next week congratulating PCSOs in Oldham. Serious business.
The show is called ‘Tony and June’ and it’s a T4 production on Channel 4 tomorrow.
Echoing Innocent Abroad’s comment, I wonder if any punters have noticed that after being pressed for months by Conservative MPs and a Lib Dem peer, the Ministry of Defence have only very recently started actively reminding members of the Forces and families of the need to be on the Electoral Register?
With the Forces being more in the public eye just now, and a March 11 deadline to register in time to vote on May 5, it could be a gift to the two main opposition parties if Labour did go for an earlier election after all. “Depriving soldiers in Iraq of the chance to vote.”
While it would be wrong to make assumptions as to how individual Forces electors are currently likely to vote, any early election is likely to swing more of them who ARE registered, behind opposition parties. Might just make a difference in marginal constituencies.
I’m noticing growing discussion about this on an unofficial Service website, which genuinely seems to reflect strands of opinion within the Forces community.
Comments?
Looking forward whatever date the erection is. SMASH THE LABOUR PARTY
Why is the election held on the 5th of May even our teacher doesn’t know we have to find out why
28 - The main reason for the specific date is probably because county council elections in a lot of the country are held on that day too. If Blair waits till after that, he risks the humiliation of losing a lot of seats in those elections (as governments usually do mid-term).
More generally, May and June are regarded as being the best months for turnout. The days are long, it’s reasonably warm and most people haven’t gone on holiday yet - so it gives the government the best chance of getting its supporters out. (Government supporters are generally more “fair-weather fans” than the opposition - it’s easier to be very against a government than very in favour of it).
For these general reasons, almost every general election after 1974 has been held in May or June. The one exception to that was 1992, which was on 9th April.
What do they teach you kids today, etc etc.
All other things being equal, it is also probably in the interest of the Labour Party long term to have the council elections on the same day as the General election - higher turnout should equal better performance and help revive their activist base.
True Alex. (Although on the 1992 precedent, maybe Labour should have gone for an April GE. Labour activists were so demoralised after the 1992 GE result that, IIRC, the Tories won a majority of the popular vote at the subsequent locals).