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Who’ll be the loser from Kilroy-Silk’s new party?

January 30th, 2005

rks

    Where’s Veritas going to get its votes from?

With the UKIP share down to just 1% in one of the weekend’s polls there are further blows for the party with news tonight that it has lost one of its two London Assembly members to Robert Kilroy-Silk’s new political party, expected to launch on Wednesday.

Mr. Damian Hockney said Mr Kilroy-Silk had made him deputy party leader of Veritas, Latin for truth and sources stated that around eight other members of London UKIP were also planning to jump ship.

    The big question for punters is which of the parties will be vulnerable to the Veritas development?

The Tories improving position - reducing Labour’s margin by 4% on ICM in six weeks and now nearly level-pegging on YouGov - has been partially helped by the troubles at UKIP. Will they be now vulnerable to Veritas or will their latest policy statement on immigration help shore up the dillution of their right wing support?

Labour has escaped relatively unscathed from the UKIP phenemonon but could it now be vulnerable to losing votes at the margin to Kilroy-Silk’s populism? He was, of course, a former Labour MP and it was his anti-Tory rhetoric that caused some of UKIP’s backers to move away.

The Lib Dems might find their tasks more challenging in the face of the likely high-profile development of what will be presented as the party of protest.

UKIP itself has already suffered substantially from the Kilroy-Silk splits and the latest move indicates that this will continue.

A lot depends on money. UKIP’s June surge was supported by big campaign donations from the Yorkshire businessman, Sir Paul Sykes. Has Kilroy-Silk got a financial backer who can put the money in? We should know on Wednesday.

Meanwhile optimists on the UKIP Forum website are having a good discussion on whether 100/1 from William Hill on the party getting most seats at the election is a good value bet. Amazingly some participants seem to think it is. We beg to differ.

Mike Smithson



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79 comments to “Who’ll be the loser from Kilroy-Silk’s new party?”

  1. I suppose the interesting bet would be: will Kilroy-Silk do better in his chosen seat (it’s Ashfield, isn’t it?) than the late great ;) Sir James Goldsmith did in Putney in 1997?

    Presumably Hockney will fight a London seat - come on huys, let’s pick one for him…

         by Innocent Abroad January 30th, 2005 at 8:03 pm

  2. Has to be Hockney for Hack-ney.

         by Robert Waller January 30th, 2005 at 8:12 pm

  3. Hockney got about 400 votes in Kensington last time.

    Apparently, he is crazy about plastic surgery…..(COMMENT EDITED FOR LEGAL REASONS - MS)

         by Sean Fear January 30th, 2005 at 8:17 pm

  4. I apologise Mike, although I am sure what I said was true.

         by Sean Fear January 30th, 2005 at 8:27 pm

  5. Sean - you’ll get everybody speculating? I’m sure that you appreciate that the site is pretty big now and we have to be careful.

         by Mike Smithson January 30th, 2005 at 8:31 pm

  6. UKIP will not do particulary well at the election, though it will probably deny the Tories a few seats accross the country (especially in the South West). As for Veritas, it will do very poorly with the exception of Kilroy Silk who will beat James Goldsmith’s total in Putney. Let us not forget that the average probably never heard of James Goldsmith whereas just about everyone has heard of Kilroy through his talkshow.

         by Andrew Milne January 30th, 2005 at 8:32 pm

  7. Sorry for the appalling Grammer. I mean to say average voter in the last post.

         by Andrew Milne January 30th, 2005 at 8:33 pm

  8. WRT UKIP generally, a few weeks ago, I would have been sure that they would gain at least 3% of the national vote in the GE, which may not sound much is about 800,000 votes, enough to affect the outcome in a fair number of seats, and enough to save a large number of deposits.

    Now though, I think they’ll struggle even to get the same vote as last time.

         by Sean Fear January 30th, 2005 at 8:35 pm

  9. ‘Grammar’ Andrew. What about spelling? :-)

         by Graham January 30th, 2005 at 8:38 pm

  10. CR this morning had the party at 1% - they got about 1.5% last time.

    I’ve argued for months that they will not top the 2.6% that Jimmy Goldsmith’s £20m funded Referendum Party got in 1997. I’d now put that down to 1.6% maximum.

    Howard’s immigration policy statement, distasteful though I find it, will shore up many of the potential losses.

         by Mike Smithson January 30th, 2005 at 8:39 pm

  11. You were quite right about the spelling by the way. As for UKIP I sense that they lack good leadership or someone cogent to express there viewpoint. Roger Knapman is too much of an old hack and has effectively admitted he will stand down in the next two years and Kilroy was always too much his own one man show. The only one that seems to impress when on Television is Nigel Farage. The other problem they have is if they want to compete at Westminster, they need to be known as something else other than anti Europe. I mean they could do no worse than to say call for stupendous tax cuts at the next election. It would be very different, quite newsworthy and effectivly aimed at the Tory vote. They are shrewd though in keeping Dick Morris on.

         by Andrew Milne January 30th, 2005 at 8:43 pm

  12. Interesting to see which way they will drift (if they do) though Mike. The Cons on the site had argued pretty hard that they would harm both Lab and the LDs (particularly in the South West).

    I also wonder if there will be a few non-voters amongst them. The Tories must be pleased if they start falling apart, though.

         by Graham January 30th, 2005 at 8:44 pm

  13. I think that a well-funded populist campaign by R K-S could inflict damage across the board. Because of who he is he’ll get the media attention - I see that there’s an hour long documentary on him on BBC3 tomorrow night.

    He desperately needs a Westminster seat to give him the platform that Brussels cannot.

         by Mike Smithson January 30th, 2005 at 8:51 pm

  14. Who watches BBC Three? Weren’t there statistics to show that some times, officially no people were watching it. No doubt though that it will get transferred over to BBC Two eventually. I doubt he will get masses of media attention during the campaign to the strict electoral commission rules and I sense he needs the publicity more than someone like George Galloway does. After all we all know where George Galloway stood on the war and where he fits into the political spectrum but how about Kilroy? What does he stand for?

    Independent Candidates can do well in specific circumstances such as Dr Taylor with the Hospital or Martin Bell in Tatton running on an anti-sleaze platform. But what is Kilroy standing for against Geoff Hoon?

         by Andrew Milne January 30th, 2005 at 8:59 pm

  15. Regarding Dr Taylor in Wyre Forest- does anyone know if he will hold his seat?

         by Tim January 30th, 2005 at 9:07 pm

  16. 8/10 - Sean/Mike - I agree with Sean re UKIP vote.I calculated UKIP would obtain 3.1% of the total vote at the next GE on the premise that RKS would be inspiring them and that this % would be higher if RKS led the party.UKIP in my opinion lost a golden opportunity.
    Veritas? - I’m unsure of - the wind could have taken out of his sails by Howard’s immigration policy statement, distasteful that you Mike find it,but the vast majority will agree.

         by Vino January 30th, 2005 at 10:06 pm

  17. Judging by the local election results in 2004, Wyre Forest could be a Conservative pick up. The IKHH have lost a lot of seats on the council with 8 switching directly from them to the conservatives at the last election. However I still suspect Dr Taylor will easily hold it.

         by Andrew Milne January 30th, 2005 at 10:09 pm

  18. Andrew, I go to a grammar school and most people there can’t spell “grammar”. You’re by no means alone.
    I think Kilroy’s creation of Veritas will simply discredit the anti-EU parties than create more enthusiasm for it. UKIP did well because it was a simple anti-EU protest vote. People weren’t interested in its members and so on. With the creation of Veritas to go up against UKIP it will, I predict, mean people will see both parties as irrelevant and so total vote share between the two parties will probably be no where near it could have been without the split.

         by GQ January 30th, 2005 at 10:15 pm

  19. Ive argued that there is a ready-made market for an English nationalist party, much larger than in 97. Lets wait and see before we write them off completely.

         by villan January 30th, 2005 at 10:19 pm

  20. 19 I thought that the Conservative Party was alleged to fill that role rather well!

         by Rik January 30th, 2005 at 10:44 pm

  21. 20 A comment from our resident Scottish Tories on that one, please ?

         by Alan J January 30th, 2005 at 10:53 pm

  22. re 21 - I wasn’t going to dignify 20 with a reply

         by sp January 30th, 2005 at 11:06 pm

  23. Both Martin Bell in Tatton and Dr Taylor were elected because one or more main parties withdrew, a huge plus neither RK-S nor GG will enjoy.

    Someone suggested that RK-S should fight as an independent and form a party if/when he was elected, but aren’t there benefits these days in registering as a party - logo on ballot paper I think, at least.

    Were UKIP in line for a PPB? How many candidates do you have to run to get one? I seem to recall the CPGB had one once in the 70s when they ran in about 50 seats but I daresay the rules have changed since then.

         by Innocent Abroad January 30th, 2005 at 11:11 pm

  24. IA - only the Liberal Democrats withdrew in Wyre Forest, and their vote share was only 8% in 1997.

         by Cllr Iain Lindley January 30th, 2005 at 11:15 pm

  25. re 14 it is on bbc 2 on saturday

         by tony January 30th, 2005 at 11:30 pm

  26. Re: Wyre Forest - didn’t they also have a large refusnik old-style Liberal Party who refused to join up with the SDP?

         by Augustus Carp January 30th, 2005 at 11:36 pm

  27. Three parties contested Wyre Forest in 1997 that did not in 2001 - the Liberal Democrats (8% of the vote), the Referendum Party (3.6%) and the Liberal Party (3%). UKIP stood both times and their vote share rose negligibly (0.6 to 0.8%). David Lock lost a 27% share of the vote and finished on just 22%, and the Conservative candidate lost 17% to finish on 19%.

    I don’t think the Liberal Democrats standing down affected the final result, unlike the stand-downs in Tatton where Neil Hamilton still garnered nearly 38% of the vote despite everything.

         by Cllr Iain Lindley January 31st, 2005 at 12:05 am

  28. I think Roger Knapman is pretty good at his role as Senior Fogey - pleasantly witty, self-deprecating, and so on. I don’t know about elsewhere, but all the potential UKIP voters I know are pretty old-fashioned, and I’d think they’d like him, just as they really had to grit their teeth to stomach Kilroy. I’d guess they’ll still get 1.5% on average.
    Ashfield Labour Party is next door to mine and I know they are extremely relaxed about the prospect of a Kilroy candidacy there, but it’s not clear yet that it’s where he’ll choose. I’d think he’ll snaffle votes from everyone where he stands and get over 10%, but I shouldn’t think his acolytes elsewhere will get more than the usual fringe vote. Veritas are going to struggle to get beyond the ‘vehicle for Kilroy’ label, unless there is some very substantial funding and another big name or two. Presumably he’s delayed the announcement to try to dredge up *some* support beyond Mr Hockney, but without lots of money for deposits there won’t be many Veritas candidates anyway.

    Nick

         by Nick Palmer MP January 31st, 2005 at 12:07 am

  29. My view for what it’s worth is that this will harm UKIP (in as much as they won’t poll as high as the would have with RKS) - but there’s little evidence that they’ll slip below Goldsmith’s referendum lot’s percentage. They’ve got a dozen MEPs, thousands of members and therefore a reasonable amount of cash.

    They’ll still poll highly in the SW and parts of the south and East Anglia. I can’t see them getting less than 3%.

    Vanitas are a different kettle of fish. RKS will appeal to a more urban, leftish set of voters - my guess is that RKS is probably at the moment favourite to win Ashfield (or whereever) - but as his target audience is not to the benefit of Labour - we’ll see his character attacked (like Gorgeous George’s) so that by May - they’ll have been successfully ‘Watsoned’.

    Oh by the way Sean (not that I saw what you originally wrote) - I can find the press cuttings confirming his desire (if not his completion) of what I guess was edited out - if that makes sense!

         by Dan January 31st, 2005 at 12:32 am

  30. 24 Iain - As IA said in 23 one of the main parties withdrew in Wyre Forest. The Tories may not like it but at long last, a lot of the media regard the LDs as a main party. I’ve noticed in the last 6 months, the LDs are either interviewed or our policy is mentioned when they do one of these Briefing things on the news. About time too.
    26 Yes they did. Oborski’s did join the Lib Dems but when the council group got bigger than just them, they disagreed witha decision and flounced off to the refuseniks.
    27 LDs standing down sent a clear message that IKHC were the party to vote for to protest against the Lab Govt health policies. The Tories were humiliated when they refused to do the same.

         by Big Tall Tim January 31st, 2005 at 8:02 am

  31. Re 23 A party needs a minimum of 50 candidates to qualify for a Party Political Broadcast.

         by Mark Goodair January 31st, 2005 at 8:16 am

  32. I have noticed from publicwhip.org.uk that Dr Taylor votes very closely to the Lib Dems, and sits by them in the chamber. It is almost as if the Lib Dems have an unofficial extra MP.

         by tim January 31st, 2005 at 9:17 am

  33. Does anyone know if the Lib Dems will be opposing Dr Taylor in Wyre Forest this time?

         by Augustus Carp January 31st, 2005 at 9:26 am

  34. As you say they need 50 candidates to get a party political broadcast what would be the effect if instead of running a national campaign they put all their money into effecting 50 seats. If they had any decent funding it would seem they could have much more impact that way.

    Also could someone tell me what the maximum spend per seat is?

         by BFG January 31st, 2005 at 10:25 am

  35. Does Tony Blair’s promise to stand by a referendum on the European Constitution apply permanently, or was it only for the lifetime of the current Parliament?

    If it’s not re-confirmed in the upcoming manifesto, I think we can assume that he won’t bother consulting the people next time.

         by Ron January 31st, 2005 at 11:59 am

  36. Tim at 30 - I wasn’t disputing that the Liberal Democrats are a “major party”, but the notion that the result would have been different had the Liberal Democrats stood. Dr Taylor’s majority was several times larger than the LibDem vote in 1997. This is unlike Tatton, where without the boycott Neil Hamilton could (not necessarily would, but could) have still won.

         by Cllr Iain Lindley January 31st, 2005 at 1:08 pm

  37. I presume you have all heard that Peter Hulme-Cross the second UKIP Greater london Assembly Member has defected to Veritas. UKIP now have no representation on the GLA!

    Interestingly though if one of them dies, resigns or otherwise leaves, the vacancy would go to the next UKIP member on their June 10th list!

         by Rik January 31st, 2005 at 4:39 pm

  38. Rik - do you know who “the candidate blogger” is? And is she also a poster here? And is she for real???

         by Tabman Steve January 31st, 2005 at 4:42 pm

  39. BTT thats a very inaccurate discription of what happened to the Oborskis in wyre forest…..interestingly the Liberal party is thriving and the Lds have all but died out…..

         by cymrumark January 31st, 2005 at 4:45 pm

  40. Steve re 38 - I have no idea I am afraid!

         by Rik January 31st, 2005 at 4:47 pm

  41. It was worth a try!

         by Tabman Steve January 31st, 2005 at 4:50 pm

  42. Re. 16, I once watched BBC3, and wondered why I’d bothered (though that was before the channel featured some good stuff, such as Bodies).
    Re. 38, I discussed with Geoff Hoon himself (during a visit he paid to Leek) and he seemed extremely sceptical that RKS would stand in Ashfield.

         by Richard January 31st, 2005 at 5:04 pm

  43. Richard - isn’t “paying a visit” a euphemism for (a) Leak? :)

         by Tabman Steve January 31st, 2005 at 5:12 pm

  44. Re: 37. Suppose one of the two Vanitarse GLC members resigns or dies or whatever. Can the next UKIP man (and I bet it is a man) on the List take the vacancy even if he has already stated that he is going to join RK-S in the new party?
    What would have happened if the Lib Dem MSP replacement for Raffan had “seen the light” and joined the SNP or SSP or whatever before the vacancy arose? Do the rules for List Elections take account of this sort of thing?

         by Augustus Carp January 31st, 2005 at 5:15 pm

  45. If you resign from a party whilst next-in-line on the list I think you are also resigning from your place on the list.

         by Cllr Iain Lindley January 31st, 2005 at 5:17 pm

  46. AC - interesting …. but there’s no mechanism under FPTP if an MP elected under one party’s banner defects (Woodward, Jackson, Marsden …)

         by Tabman Steve January 31st, 2005 at 5:18 pm

  47. Tabman Steve - I am not the Tory female candidate on the blog - but I endorse all her views on the odious and unlamented Lord Jackson of Turncoat….

         by Sarah J January 31st, 2005 at 5:19 pm

  48. Only on that issue. Are these splits in the Tory party Sarah?

         by Graham January 31st, 2005 at 5:21 pm

  49. Sarah - Sisters, perhaps, then? :) Re Jackson’s enoblement; presumably that’s the area around Turncoat Lane?

         by Tabman Steve January 31st, 2005 at 5:23 pm

  50. So sorry not to see kilroy Silk not win election, he would have been brillant for the UK people. From W.I.S.E.
    wise_british_support@hotmail.co.uk

         by alan brunwin May 6th, 2005 at 1:18 pm

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