politicalbetting.com

An interesting new market on how many seats each of the main parties will win has been launched by Skybet. The structure is similar to the one that Bet365 recently had but with the seat options at levels more in keeping with current forecasts.

The markets make a good alternative for those wanting decent prices but are not willing to take the risks or get involved with the complications of spreadbetting.

Labour seats
7/4 0-340
15/8 340-365
6/4 365+

Conservative seats
5/4 0-190
2/1 190-205
15/8 205 +

Lib Dem Seats
7/4 0-65
6/4 65-70
5/4 70+

With these bets we like to look for value at the open-ended bottom or top ranges. With the Tories and Labour the mid-ranges are very much in line with current spread prices. With the Lib Dems however the latest spread prices are above 70 seats. If there is a value bet here it is the 5/4 on Charles Kennedy’s party getting more than 70.

No doubt some smart Politicalbetting users will find ways of combining these bets with the spread markets as Jon did so well two or three weeks ago.

Mike Smithson

In all the focus on spread-betting we’ve somewhat ignored the main General Election market on which party will win most seats.

This has just been spiced up by a new Labour price of 7/50 from SuperOdds - which offers almost twice the return as many of the other bookmakers. Given that you would only be locking up your stake for about 13 weeks this seems like a good value bet.

Betfair have a similar price but with the betting exchange you have to pay a commission of upto 5% on your winnings. Another Betfair market is on which party will get the second most seats. The Tory price is 1.15 - which looks pretty good value for what must be a near certainty. However the Lib Dems are doing they are going to be hard-pressed to leap above the Tories to the second seat position.

Apart from the election date markets there is almost nothing else to bet on. Bet365 seemed to have dropped their Commons seat markets and there are no takers for Blair/Labour in the Election Winner - party and person market.

So if you don’t want to take on the risk and complication of spread-betting the best, if not very profitable, punt out there is the 7/50 on Labour from Sporting Odds. It’s a better return than the building society.

Mike Smithson

Why did nobody realise that this was offensive?

Labour’s poster featuring Michael Howard and Oliver Letwin as the faces of flying pigs was surely not designed to make political capital out of the Jewish backgrounds of the Opposition Leader and Shadow Chancellor.

But how come that Alan Milburn or somebody else in Labour’s campaign team did not know that it is distasteful for a Jewish person to be associated with a pig? And given the fuss why have Labour PR people sought to justify the ad rather than apologise which would at least have prevented much of the ongoing damage.

The affair looks crass and careless and could help galvanise parts of the Jewish communities against Labour.

After a week in which liberal (small l) opinion has has been appalled by the Tory immigration plan along comes Labour and acts in a manner that could be seen as anti-semitic. This is just dumb.

When Michael Howard became Tory leader the pride in the Jewish press that a Jewish person could become Prime Minister was tinged with a worry that it could produce an anti-semitic reaction.

Will the poster cost votes? Probably. How many? That’s hard to say but with Labour still trapped in the mid-high 30s in the polls needlessly offending any section of the population is not a smart move. It could just tip the balance in seats like Finchley and Golders Green where Labour is defending a 3,700 majority.

Mike Smithson

Are betting markets a good guide to changing opinion?

A remarkable aspect of today’s YouGov move to the Tories was that the change was forecast more than forty-hours beforehand on the betting markets even while the survey for the Daily Telegraph was still taking place.

On Tuesday Michael Howard’s party was at it’s lowest point for years on the spread-betting markets with the range being predicted by those ready to back up their opinions with cash at 183-190 seats. The following day we reported that the price had gone up two and suggested that the Tories might have bottomed and then, perhaps, was the time to buy.

Since then the YouGov poll has come out and the Tories are showing a six seat gain in four days. The latest IG Index spreads are Lab 355 - 362: Con 189 - 196: Lib 70 - 74

It is important to note that what prompted the move mid-week was not a new poll or a comment on Politicalbetting - but punters taking stock of the situation and putting money on.

It will be interesting to see if today’s poll trend is picked up by the Communcate Research survey due to the published in the Independent on Sunday and the February Populus survey which will probably be in the Times a week on Tuesday.

For our General Election Coverage we are hoping to feature a live feed of betting prices so that users will be able to get the latest information on how things are moving.

As we get closer to the day the amount of money being bet will increase dramatically and prices could be changing many times a day. The live information could become a vital information source and it will be interesting to see if the gamblers beat the pollsters and the pundits.

Mike Smithson

UKIP’s decline and immigration give Howard a boost

Punters who have been backing the Tories on the spread-betting markets in the past few days have been vindicated by the latest YouGov poll in the Telegraph has the party 3% up on last Sunday. The figures are: LAB 35% (+1): CON 34 (+3): LD 22 (-3): OTH 9 (-1)

Interestingly the change has come from the Lib Dems and not Labour which has gone up.

It might be that part of the Lib Dem totals in recent weeks have included a segment of voters who are just opposed to Tony Blair and will move to the party that seems most likely to defeat him. That looks dangerous for Labour.

This is the first survey since the Tories unveiled their plans on immigration. The total for others is less than 10% which is down from the 13% it rose to when UKIP came on the scene at the Euro Elections. A year ago “others” was at 6-7%. We don’t have a breakdown from the latest survey but it’s clear that the UKIP split with Robert Kilroy-Silk has had a huge impact on the public’s perception of that party as an electoral force.

When tested in real elections YouGov’s record is by far the most accurate pollster only over-stating Labour and understating the Tories by one or two points. Given this Michael Howard’s party is at worst level-pegging and is probably slightly ahead of Labour.

In spite of this Howard still has a mountain to climb for the Tories to win most seats or even win an overall majority. Britain’s electoral geography is so much in Labour’s favour that on a uniform national swing Tony Blair could hold onto power even if Labour is 2-3% less than the Tories in the popular vote. Although Lib Dem targeting and tactical vote rewind could see Labour with disproportionate losses above the national swing the party stays in a very strong position.

Our call this week to buy the Tories at 192 seats looks good. It is hard to see the party getting less than 200 seats and it could do a lot better.

UPDATE. The Tory price has risen again on IG Index This morning’s spreads are:- LAB 355-362 (-1): CON 188-195 (+2): LDs 71-75 which means that the Tory spread is uo five seats in three days. We think that there is still value in the price. Just putting the YouGov shares into the Martin Baxter’s universal national swing calculator gives a total of 207 seats.

Mike Smithson

For the second day running the spread-betting price on the number of MPs that punters think the party will get at the coming election has moved upwards.

After yesterday’s two seat rise IG Index have added a further seat at the expense of Labour. Today’s spreads are:- LAB 356-363 (-1): CON 186-193 (+1): LDs 71-75.

We do not know whether this is as a result of more money going on or just a precautionary step by the firm in advance of the January YouGov survey that’s expected tomorrow in the Daily Telegraph. Quite often the firm emails us if there has been exceptional betting activity.

If the Tories are going to stage a recovery then conditions are right for this to be reflected in the coming YouGov poll.

The UKIP threat has clearly declined following the Kilroy-Silk departure and the party’s immigration policies might have made a dent in the Labour YouGov lead that’s been there since August.

A possible black cloud for Michael Howard would be if any move from Labour went to the Lib Dems instead - as happened in the weekend’s survey.

One thing’s for certain - tomorrow’s YouGov figures will be nothing like as positive for the Tories as the same survey exactly a year ago when the party was on 40%.

If there is no progress in tomorrow’s poll then we would expect the Tory price to slip back.

Mike Smithson