How will the internet affect the election?
February 3rd, 2005Has the power moved from the party spinners to the bloggers?
The January ICM survey for the Guardian discovered that the proportion of adults with internet accesss is now, at 69%, more than two-thirds of the population. Those who have it at home was down at 56% - the balance get their access at work.
So we are going into an election camapign with what for many people is a new means of communication which challenges the traditional agenda-setting monopolies of the media and the party organisations.
Of course the Internet was in existence at the 1997 General Election when we saw sites on tactical voting emerge - but access was restricted to a very small section of the population. In 2001 the penetration was much larger but it is only in the past four years that the explosion that has made it into a mass medium has happened.
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We are just about at the stage where more people use the internet than read national newspapers.
On a simple level a site like this or Anthony Wells’s UK Pollingreport bring together almost all the polling information that’s available and allows critical analysis across the range. Concepts like “tactical voting unwind” have got into mainstream opinion as a result of discussion on Anthony’s and this site.
But it’s the ability of the net to generate stories and create issues that’s much more significant. The recent skirmishes on Labour’s posters would not have happened before the internet. This is how the blogger, Guido Fawkes, described the sequence of events in a comment on Politicalbetting.
On Friday I noticed the pigs advert and blogged about it, I then got an email from a source attaching the Shylock-Howard advert from a campaign email from Fraser Kemp. I thought, like the source, it looked much more dodgy. I searched through a holocaust evidence website to find similar Nazi images. Cropped the images, wrote a blog piece inviting readers to compare and contrast. Thought to myself, hmmm, thats got legs. So I emailed major newsdesks the images and blog-story.
The Standard ran the pig poster story but only when the Shylock-Howard poster pictures hit the papers did it go crazy. As Fraser Kemp protests - nobody in the mainstream media noticed for two weeks - until I emailed them. I was not put up to it by Tory HQ or anyone else. I did it out of pure mischievousness. I knew juxtaposing the nazi imagery and the poster would set off controversy - but I didn’t think it would be this big a story. What do I think? I think its possible that some young idiot at the advertising agency just did not realise the associations. But Alan Milburn has really given Brown ammunition - he signed off on the posters - and should have known better.
With bloggers like Guido about the world is a less safe place for those who like to control the agenda. How do you deal with somebody whose only motive is to make mischief? There is now a mass medium that is not under the diktat of the spinners or the media owners.
But the internet can go wrong for politicians. The big issue of the Hartlepool by-election in September was an ill-considered comment made by the Lib Dem candidate in her blog about some residents in the town.
The internet has revolutionised election betting. As well as being able to bet on line punters can get access to a wider range of information ahead of the conventional media. This is not always a good thing as the hundreds of thousands of punters who lost money on John Kerry on the night of November 2 will testify. A lot of this was based on blogged versions of exit poll returns which turned out to be misleading.
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One thing’s for sure - the internet will impact on this election in ways that we cannot foresee. Watch this space!
Copyright 2005 Mike Smithson
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…(DR - can you re-post making the same point in a less heated fashion in a form that is not defamatory. Many thanks. MS)
The point about the unpredictable impact of the internet on the GE is a sound one. I think it will be show up the inefficiencies/bias of the written and broadcast mdia. How can it down to guido fawkes to highlight the (largely subliminal) anti-semitism in the pig posters? Where are the highly-paid ‘expert’ critical columists–when you need one?
Re point 1. If we make what’s presented as a statement of fact about an individual which would lower his/her esteem in the eyes of others then we have to be able to prove that point of fact - otherwise it’s defamatory. I’m sure the lawyers amongst the site users have a better definition but that’s my understanding.
Please can we be very careful. Robert or I will intervene if there is any doubt.
The internet could also help minor parties get their message across in a way that they couldn’t when political coverage was controlled by newspapers and television.
Supposedly, one of the most popular political websites is the BNP website. They can now reach people who they just wouldn’t have reached before.
Mike - the main difference between the internet and more traditional political methods, is that generally speaking its active rather than passive.
The exception to this is something like the chain email - its my belief that circulation of eg tactical voting sites amongst friends and family could have a much greater effect this time round. You only have to look at all the various jokes you get sent.
Sean’s point is also a valid one, and could have the effect of increasing turnout, although this has to be mitigated against the depressive effect of FPTP.
Off topic, Newsnight are publishing various elecion-related pieces of information (sorry thats a bit garbled) - the two points last night were that Labour was perceived to better on what Dubya calls the “War on Terr” than the Conservatives, but that their immigration policy was vieweed very poorly.
Sean. Having known people in the ANL whilst at University, probably half the people who go to the BNP’s site are ‘monitors’! I think anti-nazis spend more time looking at far-right propaganda than there own supporters. (sorry this sounded trite, but the point I was trying to make is that there is a certain sub-set in politics of far-right/anti-nazis who are terribly concerned with each other and spend their whole time involved in their own mini struggles - perhaps this could create a large amount of traffic, without a large number of people being involved)
I can’t believe it - my last post contained the word ‘there’, when I meant ‘their’ - my own ‘bette noir’ in grammatical/spelling errors
Graham - I have to metaphorically bite my tongue every time I see a grammar error. Where I learned it I’ve no idea, must make us Comp boys genii
I will be interested in the Constituency-specific sites, to see whether there is just propaganda from all concerned or a reasoned debate to sway undecided, tactical and special interest voters. Over on “So Now Who Do We Vote For?”, the Green GOTV Machine has swung in to action - up to 20% from nowhere!
http://sonowwhodowevotefor.net/phpBB2/home.php
I make that a whopping 113 people! And I managed to vote twice. Have you seen http://www.tacticalvoter.net and http://www.electionprediction.org ? Perhaps Mike will link these sites.
Ah Steve. Genii. Chambers Dictionary does give this as the plural of genius, but the plural of octopus as octopuses. Why is this? Should there not be a standardised plural formula (formulas or formulae?) for latinate derived words?
Re point 3 - check out Johann Hari’s account of RKS’s party launch.
Graham - not having had the beefits of a classical education I’m not sure, but I think it depends upon the gender of the noun.
However pluralisation of Latin words has been muddied by their adoption into everyday English, viz:
- Stadium - pl Stadia (Stadiums in common use)
- Forumla - pl Formulae (Formulas in common use)
Re your octopus example, I might be wrong (perhaps one of the Tories can help out here :)) but it might be because its Greek rather than Latin-rooted.
Steve. In a spirit of fair mindedness - I just looked on Chambers Online, a fantastic free resource - showing that the power of the internet is not just political but cultural! (do I get sponsorsip money for that free ad?) - it gives the etymology of ‘octopus’ as ‘Latin, from Greek ‘oktopous’, from okto eight + pous foot.’. So you’re more right than me!
Ahem - getting back to the subject… I half believe Mike is right about the increased effect of people getting their info from the internet and the implication that this will increase “efficiency” by allowing people to realise who is challenging whom in their constituency, etc. (And undoubtedly tactical voting is lower than it might be if all voters actually knew how the parties had done locally last time.) However the other side of that is the problem of quality of information. The case of chain emails, already mentioned, is a good illustration: just think how much of that kind of thing is absolute rubbish. The potential for disinformation is huge and could make those LibDem “Tories/Lab can’t win here” graphs look like the height of fairness and accuracy.
P.S. Afraid I can’t resist: indeed, the plural of octopus would, in strict etymological terms, be octopodes, but that’s obviously going to far.
PPS Graham at 7: surely that’s “bete noir”?
Duncan, Duncan, Duncan … “be octopodes, but that’s obviously going to far.”
“TO”??? “Too” dear boy, “too”
:)
Oh, bugger this new-fangled internet thingy! Read-before-you-send, Read-before-you-send….
Duncan 15 - to make a more serious point, the Internet as a whole is open to misinformation, as there is so much content and limited scope for checking its veracity. Not that this is any different to other media (one medium, many media :)), but there we are.
Duncan. Almost. Just looked it up on Chambers Online (fast becoming my favourite site - I might spend more time on there than here!). It is ‘bete noire’ (with a circumflex over the first e in bete - but this computer can’t handle that kind of thing without extra hassle and the e on the end of noire. The plural of that by the way is betes noires with an s at the end of each word!)
Graham - have you checked the source data with a French equivalent? Presumably its “la bete” then.
What an enjoyable way to spend a slow Thursday morning - debating on http://www.etymology_is_us.com
- this is a good example of the “random thread” point you made Graham.
Is Chambers Online subscription? If not, can you post the link please?
And Steve. The word ‘media’ is a point in question, because as this extract points out it has become a word on its own with a specific meaning.
“media
When referring to newspapers and broadcasting, media is still more commonly treated as a plural noun:•
• The media are highly selective in their focus on sexual violence.
Occasionally, however, it is used as a singular noun, especially when a unified concept is intended:
?• These people have fears which the media has shamelessly played on over the years.
?• This may lead the media to slant its coverage.
Media is often used before a noun, eg media attention, media coverage.” (Chambers Online - the cheque is in the post
)
I think Duncan is on to something. As it happens, I am a member of my local Church, and it is interesting to see the way my friends there use the internet for campaigning. It states the obvious to say that they use it disseminate information very quickly, but the impact has been much more significant than an old Luddite like me would have expected. All of the Jubilee 2000 and Drop the Debt campaigning and organising was done electronically, which involved much swapping of information, particularly about our local MP’s, who were lobbied (not just electronically) as required. I also discovered that one friend, at the last General election, had arranged to swap her vote using the Tactical Voting site. (And I certainly didn’t have her down as a Lib Dem, never mind as the sort of person clued up enough to vote tactically!) If my Church (the usual collection of teachers, doctors, retired middle classes, students etc etc) starts discussing politics, which they are much more likely to do over the internet than on a Sunday morning, then a whole new range of “opinion formers” is likely to develop.
Sorry, this is all rather incoherent, but I doubt if the political parties know how to campaign to contact and influence these people - it is going to need a lot more than a website and a list of e-mail addresses.
No. Just put ‘chambers dictionary’ into google and it is the first to come up. There is a subscription bit I think. But all we will ever need is free and obtainable to all!
Augustus - an excellent example of the kind of point I’m trying to make.
From a personal persepctive I’m beginning to set up a branch organisation in my constituency. I’m going to use email/electronic medai to do this just as I would to achieve a task at work.
Furthermore, political activists don’t exist outside society, and I can foresee exactly the type of campaigning you mention being adopted within local constituency organisations.
The question is, who will be most clued up in doing this?
Re 25 “political activists don’t exist outside society” - OK, that’s debatable
Well, if my lot are relying on me to do it, we are doomed!
By the way, Tabman, I see that this Grammar thing is really getting to you, isn’t it? “Medai” in 25 - it’s not often that one sees the correct fourth declension plu-perfect subjunctive these days…
I agree with you Duncan. And more to the point is the ‘negativisation’ (I am sure that is not in ‘CO’) of distance. We are having a mass conversation on here, in a way that telephones never brought us, yet we are dispersed around the country. The effect is that opinions, ideas can zip between parts of the country almost as soon as they are formed.
Secondly, people should not underestimate the ‘laziness’ of the media (notice I used it in its ’singular sense as described above). Journalists like stories and ideas that come to them. They have an awful lot of space to fill. If they can borrow some ready formed ideas without having to get up from their desk, then the ideas are going to be disseminated to the population at large at a speed that would have been unthinkable 10 years ago (when ideas could be kicking around for years before anyone ran with them). Of course the converse side is that people with alternate agendas (agendae?) can also develop their responses equally rapidly.
Sorry I meant Augustus I think.
Augutus - hoist by my own Petard! Mea culpa …
Augustus. re “Medai” in 25. Rathter than the “correct fourth declension plu-perfect subjunctive…” wasn’t it a spelling mistake?
I knew this anyway, and I’m sure many of you do as well, but this shows the speed of the internet. I can now in a few seconds educate the heathens across the country about Steve’s expression.
“petard. noun, historical a small bomb for blasting a hole in a wall, door, etc. hoist with one’s own petard blown up by one’s own bomb, ie the victim of one’s own trick or cunning; caught in one’s own trap.
ETYMOLOGY: 16c: from French pétard a banger or firecracker, from péter to break wind, from Latin pedere.” (chambers)
Graham at 32 - A spelling mistake? I would “rathter” not think so.
As regards the Internet, there can be little doubt that it will play an increased future role in elections from now on. In 2001, the corralling of tactical voting through the net, helped the Lib Dems win some seats, and Labour hold on to some. Likewise we can see the role of the interent in bringing down Jody Dunn’s campaign in Hartlepool with the foolish comment on her blog. I even notice that on this website a comment made by Nick P found the diary column in the Mail on Sunday.
As for the next election as regards the Internet: I predict that candidate blogs will not be that important (hardly anyone reads them) except where the candidate says something he should not have done. I predict that tactical voting sites will not be as successful due to the increased animosity between labour and the lib dems.
However on a wider note, the Internet will be used far more by the media to find out info on what is going in the political arena, such as this site as regards potential seat changes. It will also obviously expand the forum for debate on politics in general and possibly start having an impact on the way the parties model themselves and their perceptions.
Augustus. 34. My wife always makes a fine distinction between ‘typos’ and ’spelling mistakes’. My ‘bette noir’ earlier was a spelling mistake as was my ‘there’ when I meant ‘their’ as in both I used the wrong spelling deliberately. That was definitely a typo (as was Steve’s ‘medai’)
I wonder if the local newspapers might try to consolidate the debate by using their own websites, and thus generate the newsflow that they need? In a small town with one or two constituencies (Bournemouth, Reading, Peterborough and Dundee spring to mind)there are evening newspapers which could encourage debate about who is winning, who is saying what etc. It would probably not work so well in London, Birmingham, Bristol etc because of their size.
TS, yes, you’re right about the internet being open to misinformation. There’s the basic problem of quality, because anyone can publish. So people might not distinguish between what’s accurate and what’s not. But there’s also the likelihood of deliberate misinformation. Websites and emails are not restricted in the way that official party leaflets are - since these have to say who published them - or even in the way that newspaper reporting is - at least when their misreporting is too outrageous they may print a retraction. What I can imagine is chain emails slandering prominent politicians or inventing detrimental news. “Did you know that Lib Dems plan to allow paedophiles to teach in schools?!” kind of thing. (Let’s hope Alan Milburn isn’t reading this - I’ll be giving him ideas!)
Graham 33 - IIRC there used to be someone called “Le Petomaine” who could break wind in musical fashion … (both high and low culture :))
Duncan - worryingly I think you’re on to something re this deliberate disinformation thing - rather like Graham’s “Push-Polling”, whereby seeds are sown in the minds of people through deliberate manipulation.
What a horrible thought.
Graham 29 - “Journalists like stories and ideas that come to them. They have an awful lot of space to fill. If they can borrow some ready formed ideas without having to get up from their desk, then the ideas are going to be disseminated to the population at large at a speed that would have been unthinkable 10 years ago.”
I can corroborate this. One of my friends works on a national daily in a specialist area - half his stuff is provided by his readers. Most of the rest is garnered from research tools, of which online sources provide a significant part. There is also media cross-over (stories on TV picked up by the papers and vice-versa).
AFAIK “Tactical Unwind” hasn’t made it onto the broadcast media yet. A prize for the first person to hear Paxo using the expression
28: Not that I want to be pedantic, but declensions refer only to nouns; verbs - even pluperfect subjunctives - are conjugated, not declined…
BTT - I see your 1997 opponent is heading for the exit door.
test
For some reason I wasn’t able to post for a few minutes.
A friend of mine is a journo on a national daily - half his stuff is sent *to* him; the rest I suspect gleaned from the same sources as the rest of us.
Hi Steve, system seems to be running fairly smoothly right now. If there are any serious problems, feel free to email me rcs1000 at amoral dot org. Thanks.
Robert - thanks!
BV - Jonathan Sayeed? What’s the deal?
Cash for tours apparently, but (though flattered to be thought of as an oracular source) all I know of it is what’s in the BBC article:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4231905.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4231905.stm
Sorry Jon - you, not BV. Do you think it’ll have any effect in the constituency?
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if his constituency association sought an alternative.
Because of this, or has his stance against the Iraq war caused dissatisfaction?
Off topic: the LDs are courting the student vote and list these seats as having a greater student population than the majority:
The seats where the Lib Dems say student votes can swing the election for them are: Bristol West, Cardiff Central, Leeds North West, Cambridge, Manchester Gorton, Sheffield Central, Oxford East, Newcastle-upon-Tyne Central, Liverpool Riverside, Holborn and St Pancras, Oldham East and Saddleworth, Manchester Withington, Islington South and Finsbury, Birmingham Yardley, Surrey South West, Taunton, Orpington, Haltemprice and Howden, Eastbourne, Isle of Wight, Dorset West, Bournemouth East, Wells, Canterbury, Cities of London and Westminster, Bournemouth West, Westmorland and Lonsdale.
Many are the usual suspects but some interesting other ones there. However, as we’ve already discussed, actually getting that vote out is the major difficulty and although the LDs are ahead for students probably only 1/3 would vote for them.
Steve @ 13. I’m a Tory and am ALWAYS willing to help! The plural in english of a Latin word will depend on its Latin plural. Thus stadium (3rd decension noun), the nominative plural is stadia. For formula (1st declension), the plural would indeed be formulae. I’m possibly swimming in dangerous waters with octopus…but octupes may (I can’t remember to be truthful) be the nominative plural of a fourth declension noun.
This is a pro bono populo posting.
My feeling (no more than that) is that quite a few in his association want a more active MP. Nor will they want to run the risk of losing the seat.
In the old days, of course, “the” Universities had their own MPs. I heard a rumour that the Triple Set in St John’s (Camb) was the University MP’s rooms. Anyone else heard that?
Mr Sayeed seems to be denying that he did anything wrong. I still suspect the Tories are likely to dump him. They do not want any stories of sleaze lingering around. After all the MP for Windsor Michael Trend was dumped very quickly after it emerged he had been misusing MP’s housing benefit. This is not to mention the fact that the Tories will be able to shoehorn the candidate of their choice into the constituency.
O/T - but too good to miss - Kilroy has had an outbreak of modesty and declined to lead his own party:
http://www.electoralcommission.gov.uk/regulatory-issues/regpoliticalparties.cfm?frmGB=1&frmPartyID=530&frmType=partydetail
(Thanks to Recess monkey (who else?) for the link.)
51 - IIRC octopus comes from Greek so it is third declension: nominative octopus, genitive octopodis. All the plurals in the third declension come from the genitive root so you get to octopodes for the nominative plural.
In the fourth declension, both nominative singular and nominative plural end in -us. (The ‘u’ is short in the singular and long in the plural, but they aren’t distinguishable in writing.)
Or was it Guido Fawkes - I can never tell them apart…
Something tells me I’m in big trouble now!
Re Latin Grammar - being a Comp boy with the saving grace of having studied German, do I take it that declensions are to do with the case of the noun? In German there are four: nominative, accusative, genitive, dative. However the word ablative springs to mind so I take it Latin has some more?
Steve, Latin does indeed have ablative and also vocative
John O - many thanks, I new I could rely on you Tories having a decent (grammar or public school) education
Having said that, LD BV’s post takes my breath away (he is a Tab after all though).
Point to note: in general LD and Con voters have very similar demographic profiles.
…but only Greek has the aorist!
Well, I went to grammar school but ironically didn’t do Latin there (it was a choice between that and German) - I did Latin GCSE during my A Level years, at Saturday classes at a local FE college, which sadly no longer offers it.
You are right, I probably ought to show up for a shocking by Voter Volt.
Augustus @ 37 - The local media in Birmingham consists of two papers, the Birmingham Post which is read by very few but does cover elections well and the far more widely read Evening Mail (usually known as the Meaning Evil) which generally ignores electoral matters.
John O. I was a comp boy, but I did do Latin O level. Unfortunately my friend Richard and I used the two hours a week as ‘rest’ periods, and I, therefore, managed only an ‘E’. I am struggling to remember the ablative case and why indeed it ever existed (or Latin for that matter).
Sadly, I now regret the attitude I had to my studies (at all levels) as I know that I would be mocked by Paxo (and other private school types) if I were to ever get on to University Challenge or some other similar forum surreptitiously designed to mock those of us from more prosaic backgrounds.
(My friend Richard got a ‘U’ and he revised)
Now I was on University Challenge, and was only mocked by Paxo once or twice…
Iain @ 63 - I am in Brum tomorrow, so I will give the Post another try - I last bought it before the Local & European elections, and I thought it was a complete waste of money, but maybe that was just an “off” day.
(Mike, sorry if I have just slandered libelled or defamed a newspaper.)
The Post (that rare thing, a local broadsheet) is not bad at all - shame no one reads it!
Graham - your having done O-level dates you at least as old as my sister (born 1971), who IIRC was the last year before GCSE
You’ll be pleased to know that Paxo made a howler when reading out some %ages on Newsnight the other night. Watching Universally Challenged he’s usually very quiet on the science questions and sometimes mis-pronounces; I’ve even known the answer to be wrong on the odd occasion.
BV - I am not worthy … you’ve been in the presence of the Great Man.
One of my big regrets in life is just missing out on the opportunity to do it. In the last year of my PhD they were recruiting a team for my University, but as the filming was in the summer after I left I would have been no longer “in statu pupilari” and wasn’t able to apply
I enjoy this site but I do think the print media is useful. The internet contains a lot of nonsense material as well as some useful material. Whether the ‘Labour poster scandal’ is an example of media ignoring inconvenient facts or some blogger (with the help of a Tory PPC) launching a smear campaign with the charge of anti-semitism is going to depend more on whether you’re a Labour/Tory supporter (just as the debates on Kerry’s/Bush’s military background divided on partisan lines) - it usually cuts both ways. It would be interesting though to see whether the internet has really improved the efficiency of the spread betting markets.
I remember there was a set of follow-on questions: (a) in what years were the 2 GEs in the 1960s; (b) in what years were the 4 GEs in the 1970s; (c) in what years were the 2 GEs in the 1980s. I was briefly legendary at college for being able to rattle off the answers to the “trick” 1970s question.
Oops - two ‘l’s in “pupillari”. Also a requirement for the student events at Henley.
Steve. You have rumbled me! I did 6 ‘o’ levels and 4 ‘16+’s’ which were the expeimental exams that were used as part of the change over process. No-one ever understood what they were when you handed over the certificates and thought they were made up to try and give yourself extra certificates.
(c) Presumably 1970, 1974 (Feb, Oct), 1979.
Exactly… presumably if you weren’t sure of the answer, you’d guess four distinct years.
Steve @60, Your posting reminds me of the classic put down (or level up?!!) by John Biffen, then Leader of the House, when he was harangued by the Beast of Bolsover: “I entirely agree with the Hon. Gentleman….we grammar school boys must stick together!”
BV. Not if you have a degree in politics and history (as I have), or are a political junkie (as most others here are)! There are probably those who lived through it and can’t remember. I was the youngest person at a pub quiz the other night, but the only person in the room to correctly identify that Fawlty Towers first aired in 1975!
Tabman Steve - I agree, I don’t think Paxman knows much about science or technology. I saw his interview with Bill Gates, it wasn’t terribly good.
76 - Indeed, I didn’t think it was particularly difficult at the time, but my friends’ reaction began my realisation that I might be a political junkie…
AT - its pretty common for those in the media to have no knowledge of science. My journo friend was a science correspondent with a single science O-level (in biology). Almost a point of honour if you’re Eton/Cambridge/BBC I’d have thought
Graham 72 - Spandau Ballet or Duran Duran?
Given today’s theme - have a go at this: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/4232665.stm
Tabman Steve - I got them all right. I got a GCSE in Latin, but that was a while ago, so I am pleased with myself. BTW, you are the first person to reply to me. This is a confusing board, topic tracking is hard. Regarding the media folk having no knowledge of science, the weekend had this:-
http://www.guardian.co.uk/weekend/story/0,3605,1399743,00.html
AT - this example illustrates the point well. Anyone with physics O-Level would be able to understand 95% of the examples in the piece. So, either physics GCSE is seriously dumbed down or this guy didn’t pay any attention in school!
Re being a newcomer - stiock around and you’ll get to know our arcane ways. Being a relative newcomer (September) myself, things are a lot more difficult to follow since the site’s popularity ahs shot up. A bit like the difference between learning to drive in the 1920 vs the 1990s …
I got them all right too AT. But everyone knows GCSE’s were easier than ‘O’ levels
. As for Spandau Ballet or Duran Duran, I never really took sides on the new romantic debate. Both did some interesting album songs, but the stuff they are largely remembered for is a bit ‘powder puffy’ for my liking. My music taste is somewhat eclectic.
Tell me you’ve heard of The The and I’ll be impressed.
Yasmin Alibi-Brown is on Newsnight tonight. That’ll be the telly broken in Richard’s household then …
Tabman Steve - I’ve been here about a week. I’ve never placed a bet, but I think I have become an election junkie. I found this site and epolitix. Oh and this one:- http://www.statesmanorskatesman.co.uk/
Graham - agreed. I remember practising for GCSEs on past GCSE papers, but they hadn’t been around long then, so we practised on past O-Level papers as well. O-Level were harder. You didn’t really need to know more, but you needed to do more of the thinking about applying it.
I’m going off-topic. How serious a crime is that here?
‘Infected’ was a great album. I think I’ve still got a copy on tape somewhere.
I’ve just been looking at the list of Target/Marginal seats issued to accompany Charles Kennedy’s speech at the LSE on the Lib Dem Student Vote campaign. Please could someone tell me which seat of learning is based in West Dorset?
“Soul Mining” is even better, though it helps if you’re 17, love-lorn and supposedly studying for A-Levels …
AT - the ratio of punters to anoraks is now weighted (irrevocably I think) in favour of the latter. However, I intend to dabble in one or two of the seat markets nearer the time …
Soul Mining was about 1983ish - does that correspondingly give away your age (i.e. 1983 - 17 = 1966)?
Augustus - there’s an Agricultural College in Dorset affiliated to Bournemouth Polyversity http://www.bournemouth.ac.uk/careers/KingstonMaurward.html
Graham - good guess! However, I only got into The The in Summer 1986, so 1968.
I was on UC as well, and had the pleasure of being able to correct Paxo when he told me my answer was wrong, when it was, in fact, correct! Oh, how sweet… We still lost though.
“The Bronze Bhudda has feet of clay.”
When this thread isn’t debating Latin grammar (nerds? us?) the thread is mostly ocusing on national web sites and email campaigns. It’s maybe worth adding that it’s becoming an important tool for MPs and candidates too. I’ve built up a list of over 1500 constituents who hear from me roughly once a week (see http://www.broxtowelabour.org, “Nick’s newsletters”, if you’d idly curious) and have done for up to eight years. If you keep the propaganda level down and treat the recipients like thinking adults, you get an interesting dialogue, sometimes learn things you didn’t know, and get a good deal of loyalty back. The list has become something of a Praetorian guard for me - when the Tory candidate made some personal attacks on me and I mentioned them in an email, a huge number of people, including several active Conservatives, wrote to the local paper to dissent. Given that the Guardian and Times has a constituency circulation of around 800 each, it’s really worth doing, and enables me to get out a more balanced view of a story that may be dominating the press. Virtually nobody ever unsubscribes.
The downside is that if you write a lengthy discussion 50 times a year, sometimes you’ll say something that looks stupid N years down the line. But if that deters you, then you shouldn’t really say anything to anyone, ever.
I believe there’s a LibDem MP (Adrian Sanders?) who is up to 3000 constituents, though I think he writes less than once a week.
Nick
Nick - your weekly email could be described as a “proto-blog” I suppose. I work in Telecoms and its fascinating to see the take-up of broadband internet access, and the obvious impact thats having. Most white-collar jobs and many blue-collar jobs rely on computers nowadays.
The late (and, by me at any rate, much lamented) Liberal MP David Penhaligan once said “If you’ve got something to say, put it on a piece of paper and push it through peoples’ letterboxes.” It looks like Nick’s e-mailshot is a more modern version, and is generating a similar result. Certainly, if the propaganda content was not too excessive, I would certainly read something from my MP.
94 - Nick there are several Tory PPCs I know of who have address lists in the several thousand. Grant Schapps in Welwyn Hatfield is teh supreme example!
Nick I think you are right to point out that keeping in touch with your constituents is very valuable (and perhaps more so in a marginal seat - as Adrian Sanders found out). E-mail and the web obviously are a good way to do this, as they make it far cheaper and easier to deliver than a paper based newsletter.
However, one of the other aspects of the net is the idea of ‘cyberspace communities’. I probably converse with people on this site as much as my ‘human friends’, although I have never as far as I know shared space with any of them. Although there are traditions of course of ‘pen pals’, this idea of a place where ordinary people can get together regularly, exchange ideas and knowledge from all around the country (or world) in a relatively instant manner is an extraordinary development. That must and will have huge impact on the political discourse of a country. But of course others are right, whereever there is a communications channel, then there will be those who seek to cause mischief, disinformation, slander or whatever else as well.
It also presumably saves a lot of work on behalf of the MP and party members. You are right about the propaganda element though. Too much and its goes straight in the bin.
RE Jonathan Sayeed: I read on the BBC he faces a vote of deselection in two weeks time with MH seriously hacked off. Out of interest are there any very talented/prominent Tory PPC’s without seats who get pushed in (under the new rules of 3 person CCO shortlists). I guess rik probably would know about this more than most?
Andrea - is this a kind of “reserves” list? How would you get on with charges of “not local” (I can’t read that without hearing it said in Tubs/Edward fashion :))?
I am tempted to say that all Tory PPCs are talented but will resist the urge!!
There are quite a few people who in my opinion would make excellent MPs. I will resist the urge to name for fear of offending any I miss out but I have no doubt that if there are vacancies in “safe” seats then suitable women and ethnic minorities will be included in the list of 3. Tokenism it may be but as long as we resist the daft “all women” short list idea then I and I am sure others, will be relaxed about it.
Graham - I think you can tell a lot about a person if they like The The
In a seat like that I would doubt that it would matter. People in the South East are fairly relaxed about whether the MP is local or not. It is more of an issue in places such as the South West, North East and Scotland. Two the Liberals are in 3rd place, so are unlikely to be challenging.
I guess there are a lot of Tory PPC’s who are trying to get a safe seat. All the marginal seats, were selected fairly early on in the Parliament. I would also guess that CCO might like to select a female candidate as a counterweight to the bad stories about deselections in the press recently.
Much would depend on the willingness of the constituency to go along with CCO’s plans.
My view would be to go either for a potential high flyer, or for someone with a strong local connection.
Although I think that localism matters much less in the South East, it is becoming increasingly unwise to take constituencies for granted. Gone are the days when the likes of Sir Hugh Vere Lucas Tooth could turn up in their constituencies once a year for the AGM, and be fawned on by grateful committees.
I quite agree with you Sean. After all a lazy MP provides a perfect target for his opponents. I think though that Tory constituency associations are becoming less accepting of lazy/rebellious MP’s. Look at what happened to Nick Hawkins in Surrey Heath. They expect a bang for their buck. Apparently he was not particulary popular before these shenanigans though according to press reports. I think he opposed the war in Iraq.
Sir Hugh Vere Huntly Duff Munro-Lucas-Tooth to give him his full name. You couldn’t make it up, could you?
I wish more associations would follow Surrey Heath’s example. There is far too much willingness to tolerate MPs who have become a liability.
Quite, though the MP in Surrey Heath was asking for trouble having already moved from Blackpool in 97. As I said, though I think the associations are becoming more vociferous, though not stupidly so (as labour associations did). It is also becoming a lot harder for ex MP’s to get back into Parliament, as CCO is usually reluctant to get the same old faces back in.
Deselection can be counterproductive as well especially if it splits the local party into “for and against”. Reading East is a classic example of this. Deselecting Jane Griffiths has almost certainly handed the seat to Tory PPC and local Cllr Rob Wilson.
OTOH, Labour would have had a chance of holding Peterborough, had 12 more of their members voted to deselect Helen Brinton.
I agree Rik. Particularly when it concerns PPC’s or is due to someone’s different views on issues such as Europe or Iraq. But on basic sleaze or laziness, I think it is perfectly fair. Half the problem for labour in Reading East is the fact the guy they have selected has criminal convictions for cottaging.
I almost included Reading East in my list, because what is going on there is distinctly odd. The Labour party is split, with some activists upset at the way in which the new candidate knifed the outgoing MP. Many constituents feel even more aggrieved, and the local press is full of letters from voters who cannot understand why Griffiths was shafted. Writs are flying (Martin Salter MP is sueing the Tory candidate and others) and it looks like it is going to be a tough fight all round. The Lib Dems have opened their office, with full-time staff and a good candidate (an Oxford academic).
Pace Rik, the local election results are even more interesting. The constituency has some of the Wokingham Lib Dem wards in it - if the top vote for each candidate at the local elections is totted up, the Lib Dems came first, not third as they did at the General Election. Guess what the Lib em leaflets are saying? And all the Halls of Residence for the University are in the seat.
I believe though not sure that describing the LD in Reading East as an Oxford academic may be slightly misleading.
112 - I almost fell off my chair laughing! HOw on EARTH do the Libs get themselves as top in the last locals??????? They really take the biscuit.
In the last Reading locals (2004) the Tories topped the poll across the constituency on any objective measure. I have the detailed stats to prove it. Libs were second and lost a seat to the Tories. Libs have no real presence across the town centre and very literature has been seen from them. They have NO CHANCE at all at the GE in Reading East.
The Tory candidate Rob Wilson is a well known former and current Councillor who has lived in the area for years. He has represented the old Thames ward, the old Caversham ward and the new Thames ward. He therefore has recognition across a swathe of the more Tory inclined parts of the constituency as well as a high profile in the local media.
No-one has ever heard of the Lib Dem candidate!!!! They are not even the official opposition on Reading Borough Council any more!!
WHat a laugh!
He is a Professor of Education or something, but I am not sure of the details. Any further info?
Re: the local election figures, I will check with my source, but it will not be until next week. If I have misled you (or anyone) I will retract my statement, but I need to check first.
Augustus trust me on this. I am happy to provide the ward by ward stats. Until last June I was Dep Ldr of the Conservative Group on Reading BC. I was also the one who did all the stats for the Reading Tories!! I have the killer spreadsheet!
See http://www.reading.gov.uk/elections/ElectionScoreboard.asp
Oh and by the way the Libs didnt even run a full slate of candidates last year!
My point is, you have not included the Wokingham seats which come into the Reading East constituency! They are all Lib Dem, or so I am told.
Augustus - my stats at home include Bulmershe/Whitegates, Southlake and Loddon which are as you say, all Lib Dem seats. However, it is not enough to tip the constituency to the Libs as the Tories ran them quite close this time in several of the Wokingham wards (see Loddon).
See http://www.wokingham.gov.uk/index.asp?pgid=23624
I believe he was a very senior academic at Oxford Brookes which is not what people would take from the phrase “Oxford academic”. An expert on education…
Jon, Yes, I see what you mean.
Rik, thanks for that. Can you remember, would the Lib Dems have been in second place?
It doesnt really matter as he isnt gonna win!
123 Augustus - yep I am sure they were. There is still a tradition in the Wokingham parts of the constituency of voting Lib locally and Tory nationally which means that in the GE the Libs will come a poor third as they have done for years in Reading.
Rik, thanks for that. I am not saying that I disagree with you. However, can you think of any other Labour parliamentary seats in which the Labour party are in third place in the locals? I am sure there must be some, but it still makes me think that Reading East might be more interesting than many of the neighbouring seats.
Totting up the figures it’s a damn close run thing - I’ve got the wards in Reading East (and I’m sure Rik will correct me if I’m wrong) as:
Mapledurham
Thames
Katesgrove
Redlands
Caversham
Loddon
Peppard
Park
Church
South Lake
Abbey
Bulmershe and Whitegates
Which, taking the highest vote for each party in each ward, gives totals of CON 9043, LD 8930, LAB 7508. Battle ward looks like it straddles the constituency boundary, but there were only 33 votes between the Lib Dems and the Conservatives there in 2004 anyway so it doesn’t make a difference.
Not much fuel for a bar chart there anyway (unless it’s a “Labour can’t win here!”
)
126 - AC not off hand - but it does go to prove my much earlier point that straightforward extrapolation of local election results to a GE is dangerous. YOu need to add in some detailed local knowledge to decide if the local election results will project forward in this way.
The Libs have no history of strength in Reading and will be putting all their effort into keeping Newbury and gaining Maidenhead. As I have argued before they are too stretched to be a serious threat in many areas and I still maintain they will lose some seats in the South whilst gaining some up North!
Anthony and Rik, between you you have made my mind up! I hereby nominate Reading East as the Most Interesting Constituency for the next General Election.
And no, I don’t know who I think is going to win. If/when I find out any more, I will keep you posted.
127 - it is somewhat artificial to take the top vote in each ward. I prefer to add up the total for each party and divide by the number of each party’s candidates in that ward. There is an amazing amount of split ticket voting when the whole Council is up as last year.
It is the first time in my memory that we have “won” the constituency on the local results - usually the Lib Dems do!
Your wards are right Anthony and there are several constituency border anomalies - Whitley, Battle, Katesgrove(?)(I think).
I used to represent the old Thames ward, which is now part of the new Thames ward plus the new Mapledurham ward!!
126: On local results Labour are currently in third place in Bolton West and Edinburgh South, to name but two.
Re: 126, Labour came third in St. Alban’s this year, and, I suspect, (although I’ll have to dig out the figures), came third in Watford too.
RIK if you are still on i am a young tory just getting to learn about stats can you help me how do i collete them we have a good association but they are mostly very old or very new members.
Ah … thus speaks Generation Text
Just checked, and Labour came third in Watford by c.2,500 votes behind the Tories. However, the Lib Dems had a very big lead over both Labour and the Tories, so one shouldn’t necessarily regard that as indicative of Labour’s performance in a general election. Labour will plainly lose votes to the Lib Dems, but they won’t finish in third place.
121: re the LD candidate in Reading East. As well as being at Oxford Brookes, he is also a Visiting Research Fellow at Oxford University; you would have to be very mean-spirited to deny that that makes him an ‘Oxford academic’…
Re all of you. Oxford Schmoxford. Does it matter if he is from Oxford University or Ulan bleedin’ Bator College of Further Education. Is he a good person who knows what he is talking about?
Graham - “Oxford Schmoxford” - I couldn’t agree more
Well, one would suspect that on the subject of education (he is senior research fellow in the Department of Education at Oxford), if he doesn’t know what he’s talking about, well…
But Steve. You’re saying that because you’re a Cambridge boy, whereas I am saying it because I am bitter and twisted. I could have easily said Cambridge Schmambridge, but as a graduate from a 1960’s uni, I hold less loyalty, and definitely say Brunel Schmunel
134 - email me at rik_w@blueyonder.co.uk
Graham - I too am a (post-)graduate of a 60s Uni. Oxford? Never rated the place personally
Some points from way back (I’ve been filling envelopes to party members, so couldn’t respond earlier)
1 As I remember, the ablative case was for nouns which followed by, with, or from:
2 The list of places where students were more than the majority didn’t include any Scottish seats - certainly Edinburgh S, and probably one in Glasgow and in Aberdeen (i’m not au fait with the new boundaries outside Edinburgh).
3 The election prediction site is a waste of time, as it largely was 4 years ago. They’re still using old Scottish boundaries!
I hear that an Australian coming here to help the Tories was turned away. Is that “New” Labour stealing the Tories’ clothes by saying the limit has been reached?
Graham - spoken like a true LD - professor Howson in fact. I think you’ll find he wouldn’t be mentioning the fact if it were Ulaan Baator FE college, ’cause no-one would take it seriously.
Re 133 - Is that true Aiden re Edinburgh South? I’m not convinced as the Tories only hold two council seats in the new constituency to Labour’s four.
Re 133- Hard to see the Tories doing well enough to win in Edinburgh South (although of course The Marquess of Lothian, Michael Ancram did once hold the seat). There are some interesting battles in Scotland: The Tories are obviously eying up Dumfries & Galloway- I have to say that calling Sir Hector Munros old seat a Labour heartland is pretty strange- so I would call it for the Tories. All of the SNP seats are aa bit dicey, but I would say Banff Buchan and Moray are probably safe, and they may gain in Dundee- The Perthshire and Tayside seats look quite promising for the Tories. The Lib Dems are probably OK, although the Borders seat is going to be a tight fight, and might take Edinburgh South and Inverness- Anne Begg though is very well led in Aberdeen and I would say that she could hold off that challenge. A couple of the Glasgow suburb seats might change hands- one to LDs one to Conservative. I don’t think that the Western Isles will change hands- it is all about personality up there. So Spreads: SNP 3-6, Tory 1-6, LDs 9-14 and Labour 33-46 if I have got my maths right.
148 - Calum MacDonald, the incumbent in Western Isles (apologies, I can’t off the top of my head spell its Gaelic equivalent to which it is being renamed) is stepping down isn’t he? So the personal nature of voting there isn’t likely to have much influence on whether it changes hands.
The Times disagrees with me though:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-1445369,00.html
But I still do not see the Tories doing that well- and I think the SNP is vulnerable
127 Bedford - Has a Labour MP but were in 3rd in last year’s locals