Tories back at 200 on spread markets
February 24th, 2005
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Mori’s 37% Tory share gives market a boost
Today’s Mori poll in the FT has led, inevitably, to money going on the Tories in the spread-betting markets. The shares of LAB 39: CON 37: LD 18 are the best for Michael Howard’s party for years and were only exceeded in the strange circumstances of the 2000 petrol crisis and in the aftermath of David Kelly’s death in 2003.
Following on from the improved figures from ICM earlier in the week it is not surprising that the market consensus is moving to the Tories getting more than 200 seats in the coming General Election.
The IG Index price fix this morning was: LAB 352-359: CON 193-200: LD 68-72. putting the buy Tory level at the 200 mark for the first time in months. You can still get slightly better value with the Spreadfair exchange which has LAB 357-361.5: CON 191.2 - 196: LD 69-71.4
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With a further poll from YouGov expected tomorrow it’s possible we will see further movements during the day. YG usually shows better Tory figures than the other pollsters and it’s possible that the new number could have Michael Howard ahead.
With the race looking as though it will be closer than people were predicting the prices on the turnout have also moved. It’s now just evens on 60% or more. A month ago this was more than 3/1.
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© Mike Smithson 2005
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Finally opened a Spreadfair account. I used the link in the right-hand bar rather than the one in the post itself (which seemed to take me to the main Cantor site) - hope the effect on your commission is the same Mike.
All this is not totally surprising is it? A number of points can be made.
1) People need to be a bit careful when they start saying Labour must be ‘worried’. To be worried is to suggest that Governments having a majority of over 100 is the norm not the exception. I don’t think that anyone can deny that a large part of Labour’s current position in parliament is down to the Conservatives being perceived as useless. If the Tories begin to look like a credible government then to some extent a rise in the polls is out of Labour’s hands
2) The Tories looking credible again must be the LibDems worst nightmare.
The Tories looking credible is a bigger problem, surely. for UKIP?
The Lib Dem votes of late have been coming from Labour.
3 Mike, The problem for the Lib Dems is that for so long they’ve portrayed themselves as the only credible opposition to Labour and there seems to be a very large percentage of their activist base (judging from comments I’ve read on this site and others for the past 10 months) that seems to think that they are on the way to replacing the Tories.
Once the Tories re-establish as a credible party of government the Lib Dems primary purpose (since Paddy Ashdown stepped down) appears to have failed. It doesn’t matter how many times CK tells people that the Lib Dems are the only challengers to Labour, if people can see that it’s the Tories are making the running then he just looks non-credible (which in my view is the worst thing a politician can look). This is not a position I would have thought the Lib Dems (or any party) would want to be in.
The Lib Dems have (since 1997) had an opportunity to replace the Tories. It looks like they’ve failed.
Turnout is the big problem. How are the 11% of people who didnt vote in 2001 (after voting in 1997) going to behave this time. The MORI website doesnt tell you the number of people not going to vote. It is easier, I would think, to give a party name to a pollster once you have agreed to take the poll than actually make the effort to vote. (How many people do pollsters ask who refuse to be polled? Are people who agree to be polled typical?)
So if 75% of the people MORI interviewed gave a party to MORI but the actual vote was only 60% then unless the missing 15% were distributed in the same way as those who did turn out then there is massive possibility of error.
The Tories have unveiled a series of policy announcements recently on populist issues - immigration, crime, lower Council Tax for pensioners, etc. - and have received generally favourable coverage in the press. I’m not surprised they have gained ground in the polls.
The question is whether they can keep up the momentum, now that they’ve unveiled most of their key policies. Labour have the Budget to come and can fillet the Tory proposals for popular measures which they can adopt for themselves.
The LibDems have been squeezed out of the limelight by the fierce exchanges between the major parties, but don’t write them off. They usually gain ground in election campaigns and have a good record in hanging onto marginal seats, often converting them into safe seats (e.g. Berwick, Truro, Kingston).
And of course, we should never forget that there doesn’t HAVE to be an Election in May! If he wishes (or if the polls went seriously pear-shaped) TB could hang on for another 16 months.
I agree with Stephen somewhat. However, it is still the phoney war at the moment.
The Conservatives’ current tactics of trying to set the agenda appear to be paying dividends, and there is no doubt that they have moved upwards this week, although by how much in the long run is hard to say. What is also not clear is how much the Lib Dems have moved down - We will get a better indication from You Gov tomorrow. Only last month You Gov had the Lib Dems on 23% and ICM this week had them on 21%. If YouGov has them in that region, then they will probably not be that worried. If YouGov has them under 20% they will have to rethink their strategy. So far they have ‘kept their powder dry’in the phoney war (to use the current en vogue expression). If, however, it looks like the situation is getting away from them, they will have to move.
The current rumblings about the war (Attorney General, war crimes etc) give the Lib dems their ‘in’into this contest. It was noticeable last night that they had seized on this and they manged to wheel out Ming Campbell who has been one of their greatest assets in the last couple of years.
I still would like to see the MORi base figures. If I could get my hands on them it would be possible to do a bit of a like for like with ICM. One great thing about the British Polling Council is that unlike previously we can play with the data to get closer comparisons between the companies.
Stephen 4. As a Lib Dem I’ve long argued here that the party strategy of trying to present ourselves as the only credible alternative to the Tories is dumb. At the conference in September this was set as the General Election aim yet all the Lib Dem rises and falls of recent times have been to and from Labour.
Until now the Tories have not be going anywhere - but they’ve not been declining either. Whether the current polls represent a sea change we will have to wait but they do show up the weakness of the Lib Dems’ thinking.
Mike in case you didn’t see the post on the other thread, UNS on the FT figures gives the LDs 38 seats, not 28.
MORI are making me mad! I want to see their figures on their web site. Mike you are a man of influence - can’t you get them to put them up - pleeeeaaaasseee
Graham - just email them and ask! They have to give you the tables within two days and most of them do it straight away.
(Oh yes, if you haven’t had enough Spyware advice already, I backed up, formated my hard drive, reinstalled Windows and got a nice router with a built in firewall. Haven’t had any spyware since.)
3-4. The liberals are ultimately a left of centre party, as are labour, and hence the libs could never seriously replace the right of centre conservatives, who even in ‘97 and 2001 stayed above 30% and did not fall to the levels of Labour in the 1980’s.
I suspect that the libs will lose a few ex tory seats but gain twice as many labour seats at the election.
If labour get a very low majority or no majority I suspect the recriminations will make the early 80’s look like a vicarage tea party and the liberals would be serious contenders to replace Labour as opposition in the 2009 election, especially if a weakened labour government limps on like the tories did after 1992
2/1 55-60 % turnout an over reaction imo.
If you got the 10/3 over 60 worth taking profit/covering stake.
Mike obviously needs his holiday - the Lib Dems have been trying to promote themselves as the only credible alternative to Labour. of course to some extent that strategy relies upon Labour spokespersons (who get the lion’s share of media opportunities) shooting each bit of Tory idiocy down in flames, and they have fallen down on the job.
But overall lib dems’ 50 best seats will not be bothered about the issue of ‘alternative government’. They made gains at the tories’ expense last time and are better organised than then in most areas concerned.
We live in interesting times, but the bottom line is ‘will anyone believe cop-cutter Howard, the man who let out the biggest murderous thug in Liverpool and who introduced the Council Tax while his party were cutting the pensions/earnings link, about anything at all.
What he DID will eclipse what he SAYS he will do in my opinion. But we shall see.
Given the mediocre polls for the Lib Dems this week, I can’t understand why their spread hasn’t dropped. I want to buy at 39 !
Very heavy Tory buying on spreadfair - I’ve just been paid out of all of mine at 197.5
harrowed,robed Chatham.glides hillside Pompeii abbeys .