YouGov puts Labour 6% ahead
February 25th, 2005
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The internet pollster should steady Labour nerves
This month’s YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph has LAB 38 CON 32 LD 21
This goes in the opposite direction of the week’s ICM and MORI polls which is probably explained by the fact that YG do not filter by whether people are likely to vote.
So the pollsters that usually favour Labour have shown Tory progress while the normally pro-Tory internet pollster has a different view. Discuss.
NOTE I am on holiday until a week on Monday which means there will be a limited service on the site.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
here’s the article from the telegraph:
Conservative central office last night dismissed claims that it was heading for another landside defeat, insisting that recent polls showing Labour with a commanding lead were in accurate. While most ‘traditional polls’ give Labour a strong lead, many have been quick to point out the fact that opinion polls consistently overstate Labour’s support. This has lead to much debate as to whether the polls can be taken as an accurate reflection of the general opinion. Indeed, when the Telegraph polled Conservative party members last week, Labour’s lead was cut to only 2 percentage points, within the margin of error. Mike Smithson, of politicalbetting.com, was quick to support this method saying that it was the only way embattled Tory supporters could come to any other conclusion other than Labour are doing as well as everyone else was saying they are. However some party members moved to dismiss this method. Sarah j was quick to point out that a true reflection was only achieved when the question, “If there was a general election tomorrow which party would you support,” was asked too conservative members of parliament. This poll gave a 5 point lead to the Tories but with Labour hot on their heels.
Last week I reported that in a recent YG survey readers of the Sun were given about double th weighting of Indy fans like me and were more likely to be asked to take part in YG surveys. As a result I changed my newpaper preference with YG to the Sun and within 2 days was taking part in this latest poll. I also changed my previous vote recall to Labour.
I must have been the only ‘Sun reading 2001 Labour vote’ to have said that the LDs have the best policy on immigration!
Very funny Tom (and pretty accurate!).
I know it’s only one poll etc etc….But the one thing that all the polls have in common is that the more the public see of Michael Howard the less they like him. Focus groups have shown the same thing and central Office must be aware of it. So why is he running the Tory campaign as a one man band? Why doesn’t he leave it to members of his party who might seem less nasty and more trustworthy. He has the ability to make you distrust a policy statement for no other reason than that it’s he who has presented it. Yougov scored him on 20% to make the best PM against 37% for Blair and Mori’s was even worse. Considering that Mr Blair himself isn’t trusted it shows how bad Mr Howards figures are.
…..And a lot of good it did the Lib/Dems on yougovs poll!
Have a good holiday!
3 & 4
3 & 4 - Roger that’s not true! One of the recent polls showed him ahead of Blair with women and I think it was the ICM poll that showed him with a better approval rating than Blair.
Rik. I’m not sure why you’re in denial? Why don’t you ask Central Office what their private focus groups are telling them? I have a friend who is incharge of research in a large agency and though this isn’t her thing (her agency has no political parties) if you spoke to her for five minutes she would tell you what I’m certain Maurice Sattchi already knows.
http://www.portal.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/02/25/npoll125.xml
Fact is that this is a pollster that the tories have been praising as its given them their best results. By the time i come back today they will be to calling into the reliabilty of this poll, why? Cus when used to calculate seats it shows Labour with a third 100 seat majority and of course this is impossible. People need to sit down and look at facts, there isn’t bar some miricle gonna be a hung parliamnet, there isnt even gonna be a small labour lead, if things stay the way they are the tories are gonna get slaughtered. (follow four more yers of saying they need to change, that their out of touch etc with no actual change from the party at all.)
Tom, Labour’s lead, on average, this month, has been 5.6%. In February 2001, it was 15%. No one’s calling question the validity of this poll - merely it’s a mistake to just concentrate (as you are doing) on polls that give you a result you like.
but labours support in the polls is a lot harder than in 2001, the polls will give a good indication of its support. The lib dems are the ones that will suffer at the polls this time
article by Bob Worcester of MORI in todays FT:
“Although the Conservatives have pulled to within two points of Labour in the most recent Mori poll, this would still suggest Labour’s majority in the House of Commons would be nearly 100 seats over all other parties.
ADVERTISEMENT
The voting intentions of the 53 per cent of the electorate who say they are “certain” they will vote when the election comes is 39 per cent for Labour, 37 per cent for the Tories and just 18 per cent for the Liberal Democrats, a swing of 3.7 percentage points from Labour to Conservatives since the last general election.
This is the best news Michael Howard has had since taking over the leadership of the Tory Party, although his party still stands in a very deep hole and the likeliest election day is just 10 weeks from today.
The depth of the hole is illustrated by the Mori “swingo” model, developed and tested in 1997 and 2001 by Roger Mortimore, Mori’s senior political analyst.
On a uniform swing across the country, it shows that, to win, the Tories would have to poll 45 per cent to Labour’s 33 per cent, a 12 point lead, while holding the Lib Dems to 18 per cent, a point lower than last time.
No one, with the possible exceptions of Mr Howard and Lynton Crosby, his Australian political adviser, would realistically think this possible in the short time between now and the likely general election on May 5.
However, there is good news for Mr Howard in that his personally satisfaction level has turned up. In December and January it hung at 22 per cent. It is now up to 25, just three points, but heading in the right direction.
It is however, 10 points lower than the prime minister’s rating of 35 per cent; and general elections, unlike abstract levels of satisfaction, are a “zero-sum” game.
When pitted head to head, as measured last month, Mr Blair is thought by the public to be the most capable of the three party leaders - his 39 per cent compared with 17 per cent for both Mr Howard and Charles Kennedy, the Lib Dem leader.
Mr Kennedy and his colleagues will be dismayed by the Mori findings, but these I believe are as much a measure of the media spotlight being on the other two party leaders recently, as they have both begun their vigorous and at times negative election campaign. The prime minister has announced Labour’s six key pledges (including five of the seven top issues volunteered by Mori’s respondents as the most important issues facing the country).
Remarkably, nearly a quarter of the public (23 per cent) spontaneously named asylum seekers and other immigrants as the single most important issue facing the country, nearly double the percentage naming either the Iraq war and terrorism, or healthcare (13 per cent each).
Only 2 per cent said hunting and countryside matters were among the most important issues facing Britain”
No mention of raw figures but only 53% certain to vote - does that support my low turnout theory, or are people normally this likely to vote 10 weeks before an election.
Dont know why it says ADVERTISEMENT - lifted from FT web page
6,7 - the findings that 44% would be “dismayed” to find a Conservative government lends weight to the argument (which also happens to be my view) that the likelier that looks, the more Tactical Unwind will not happen.
y post are all becoming very repetitive.
what does this poll tell us?
Labour in mid 30’s, Tories in low 30’s, LDs in low 20’s. Leaving aside MORI who have a very poor accuracy record & the occassional reactive blip this is the consistent story since the Euros. Surely that is telling us something?
The Tories are succeeding in firming up their vote & im sure they’ll get a bteer differential turnout than Lab & LDs. But they do not appear to have succeeded in building the wider coalition of support they need in order to deprive Lab of their majority let alone gain one themselves
I think the Tories will be slaughtered, unless they can show that they can appeal to people under 50. Free Enterprise, small government, socially liberal and they’ve got a chance. Michael Howard is their biggest liability. George Osborne is their best bet, and advocating PR would give them Lib Dem votes in some constituencies. They need a more even spread of votes, rather than piling them up in safe seats.
15 - FPTP will always as a rule favour the party in power. On UNS if Tories outpolled Labour and Labour still have a majority - in theory a possible result but if the swing were that much (and personally I don’t believe it is) then anti-Labour TV would almost certainly be a feature and anti-Tory TV would reduce, with much higher swing than UNS in the marginals.
I don’t know if people realize how difficult it is to persuade people to change their “brand”. If Persil for example could announce in a short TV campaign that their powder was definately going to wash whiter they’d be lucky if they shifted a percentage of a percent. Yet somehow people think political parties are different. “No more immigrants”! thats got to be worth 3%! “No council tax for pentioners” another 3%!
Bullseye is right. Shifting perceptions takes a long time and a lot of work. And in the case of the Tories they need a complete re-branding which they just aren’t prepared to do.
Disturbing though unsurprising for those of us who visit the real world occasionally that asylum and immigration are top of the list of concerns. I think that would explain the rather poor LD showing.
On a different not LD candidates and agents have been sent something saying that there is a 40% chance of the GE on 14th April and 60% on 5th May. I believe this to be nonsense but then I guess HQ are better informed than me.
15 - I think most LDs would take promises of PR with a pinch of salt following Jenkins. The only conditions under which we will get PR is a prolonged series of hung parliaments. And that’s pretty likely …
We always used Tide - but my Mother and Grandmother have died and so I think have most of the other Tide users.
As with washing powder so with political parties!
17, 18 - interesting link between these two. There is a huge gap between perception on issues like Asylum, immigration and Europe, and the reality. For example, the net contribution of people not born in the UK to the economy, to the tune of £2.7bn if I remember correctly; or that the European Commission has fewer staff than Birmingham City Council …
19 - I think everyone gets excited by prospects of hung parliaments, remember 1992. That said, a wedge of 60-70 Lib Dems massively increases the chances, and in my opinion is not outside the MOE in 05, that said things would have to go extremely badly for Labour between now and May 5 for that to happen. Still, I think it is a very realistic prospect looking ahead to 2009/10.
Hartlepool by-election
labour 440, Lib DEm 143 UKIP 131 Conservative 126.
Pretty easy hold for Labour (Last time Lab 828, Lib Dem 565, Con 388)
Diasappointing for Lib Dems and the Tory fail to replace UKIP as 3rd party in Hartlepool shock! -Turnout a bit low though
Tabamn - its a slightly misleading statistic though if we are being fair. If people not born here contribute £2.7bn they also increase the number that GDP has to be shared between - do they make GDP per capita go up or down.
I suspect we are on the same side of this argument but it is less clear cut than extremists of either kind would have us believe.
One thing is abundantly clear though - this is a net vote winner for the Tories for now…
22 - Sorry, there’s no smiley for irony and it obviously didn’t come through. Statistically hung parliaments are unlikely happenings, so I was trying to say that its very unlikely for PR to happen (though as you point out, the bigger the numbner of “non-aligned” seats the more likely this is).
Hunchman - are you Ben in disguise?
Jon WC - I don’t doubt it, but the point I’m making is that counter-arguments are rarely put.
Like the percentage of non-UK medical staff in the NHS, for example.
I notice that normal service has been resumed. Where were you all yesterday when the ‘Battle for Mori Poll’ saw Graham manfully holding off the combined forces of ire to finally finish victorious in the last stand of YouGov Serendipity, with only roger for company. You thought the other side is bad - come in here on an opinion poll day and you soon see what a real fight is all about.
28 Sorry Graham, real life intervened (in the shape of a business meeting and a rare social event inthe Tabman household). However, victory must have been all the sweeter given the odds. I at least had the help of Chrisco in the battle of the Polish Treaty.
Tabman
“Hunchman = Ben”! I could have come up with a better name than that ;), Ben is one and indivisable.
Roger was an able companion.
Told you he was Legion!
You’re not going to question the YouGov poll’s validity, Graham? Even though it contradicts part of your argument yesterday?
Possibly the most significant finding in YouGov is that whereas in 2001 15% more people said they’d be “delighted” or “wouldn’t mind” if the Tories under Hague won than those who said they’d be “dismayed”, this margin has now dropped to 0%. This highlights the Tory dilemma - the better they do in an opinion poll, the more people say “My God, they might win!” and decide to vote Labour. This is why I’m pleased to see so many Tory posters on hoardings in my patch - I go round pointing them out to people! “See, see, they really think they can win here…” “Urgh!”
The ideal Tory scenario is to do rather badly until 3 days before the election, then suddenly get a surge too late for the polls to register. But how to engineer that, eh, Mr Crosbie?
I expect the IoS pollo will be middling, though, and we’ll all calm down again…
BTW, Hutchman [16], I don’t think it’s true that FPTP usually favours the party in power (ask John Major) - it simply favours the party that’s ahead. I’m an electoral reform supporter myself, but I don’t think we can really use that particular argument.
Nick
29 - Ben, I was referring to a post of 5 lines with *two* “That said”s??? Perhaps you’ll see why I was suspicious
33 - Nick, I’ve made the same point myself. A perception of threat will focus many minds (if you’ll pardon the expression).
Who will donate a £1 to a whipround to buy the domain http://www.thatsaid.co.uk and redirect it here?
Count me in
Tabman
Even I’m noticing how often I say “that said” another one is “too be fair”… worrying thing is I’m a very even handed canvasser…
I’ll usally be quite happy to say things like…
“I can’t wave a magic wand, but…”
“Of course there have been mistakes but look at…”
“I’m not going to stand here and simply slagg off the other candidates…”
…it has always seemed the most effective way of campaigning especially when your party is in power.
Donors can have an address ben*@thatsaid.co.uk… now this could work!
* or whoever
Reply 36
If i ever got anywhere in life i can see the impressions on “Deadringer”… *shuddur*
38: well Ben, I must say that when I visit the Other Place I think of you as a mild and non-partisan contributor!
40 - we all have our mannerisms, such as excessive use of “though” and parsimonious use of commas in my case!
Ben - I know you take it in the right way. Blame it on my disturbed childhood - having a teacher for a mother who picks you up on cliches makes you over-sensitive to these things …
What part of my argument does it contradict alex - that the Conservatives were over stated or the gap was too small
That the Conservatives had undoubtedly improved in the last few weeks
“YouGov’s latest findings thus add to the weight of evidence suggesting that voter turnout in 2005 could well be even lower than it was in 2001.”
-Anthony King writing in telegraph re YouGov poll.
Think some people here had bet on higher turnout -What now?
Alex - I said on the evidence of Mori and ICM that I was willing to accept that they had improved, but that I felt that they were being overstated. I will happily concede that perhaps I was mistaken in the subject and that the Tories are now firmly back in their near mythical box. Sarah - are you out there??
I disagree about FPTP, Nick. I think it does favour the party in power, although I don’t think that is a negative thing. That is where the adage “oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them” comes from. The point is that as long as the government is doing a broadly satisfactory job, then they will stay in power. The advantage of FPTP is that they can be easily kicked out if they’re a disaster. Better a system that favours the Governing party/coalition, than one that keeps in in power in perpetuity!
36, 37, 38 - bought it. It will probably take a day or so to work though.
You must agree though, Graham, that if ever there was a candidate for a rogue poll then, based on the evidence of YouGov’s last 15 odd polls (where Labour hasn’t moved more than 2 points either side of 35) then this is it.
(and YouGov being a rogue wouldn’t of course undermine your general argument)
I’d be willing to bet that if the Mail on Sunday, or Sunday Times, publish a Yougov poll showing Labour and Conservatives level-pegging, the traditional criticism of Yougov’s methods will resurface on this website.
I think that Mori is the only candiate for rogue poll, because it is the only one for a year to put the Cons outside of ‘The Tory Magic Box’. The Cons have made progress - the ‘Magic Box’ is now between 30 and 34% rather than 31-33%. But when you look at it Mori wasn’t a rogue either - if they had corrected their ‘underlyings’ in a sensible way everything was right where it should be - their underlyings being 43/31/18, which if corrected in a normal manner would have probably come out around 40/33/18 - which is not out of line with anyone.
Sean I have criticisms of YouGovs methods and this strange poll adds to them rather than anything else!
So when someone said about the polls converging - they are - Feb average = Lab 39.4%, Con 33% (including Mori) Ld 19.2%
Graham, I think that MORI do over-correct, but then I think their base figures over-record Labour support to begin with. Except for July 2003, their base figures have consistently shown Labour ahead by over 10%. I think that that is a higher Labour lead than any other pollster would have given consistently, even if they didn’t adjust for likely turnout.
Graham you ignored my point. Each pollster can only be looked at in isolation, especially in You Gov’s case. Under YouGov Labour has been in a ‘box’ of 33-37 for a year and a half. Under your own argument this is potentially a rogue (especially when there is not obvious reason to think they’ve improved). As you say Mori is not a rogue because its underlying figures are not inconsistent with what they have shown before. And as their adjustments have consistently boosted the Tory score by 5-6 this cannot be considered a rogue either. A rogue poll is not the same as an innaccurate poll.
Alex - it may be that you have to choose between democracy and “strong” government. I would argue that democracy hasnt had much chance to show what it can do - if anyone has examples would be happy to be corrected.
As an example supporting your arguement - the current situation in Russia shows the benefit of strong government, though the Chechens might beg to differ.
I think the UK is actually ready for a bit of real democracy - the success of balanced local authorities compared to corrupt one party councils shows that it can be done.
Think you would need to introduce fixed term parliaments (or elect in thirds)
So the candidate for the rogue poll is Mori - but only because they over corrected. Does everyone accept that now or do I have to spend my life banging my head against the brick wall?
That was the argument i was trying to put to Graham yesterday, Sean. Mori overcorrect relative to the other pollsters, but then they generally have lower underlying Tory figures from which to correct from. Whichever method is justified logically, all that matters is who gets it right on polling day (and those whose adjustments, however seemingly illogical) are based on research done with comparison to ACTUAL election data evidence have the best chance. (so at the moment for example i trust ICM far more than Populus)
It seems to me you’re working off a strange definition of “rogue poll” Graham. Under your definition, EVERY Mori poll is a rogue poll.
Like I said a rogue poll is not the same as an innaccurate one. And an innaccurate poll does not have to be rogue. The importance of rogue polls is what they show (or don’t) about trends, not actual levels of support.
As it happens, I don’t believe that any poll published this month has been a “rogue” poll. All of them are consistent with an underlying position of Labour 5-6% ahead, plus or minus 3% either way.
But the problem with Mori’s correction method is it is inflexible as it magnifies those willing to say they are definitely going to vote over those who are pretty certain to vote - i.e. 10’s compared to 8’s and 9’s. The more that a party proportionally gets 10’s to 8’s and 9’s the bigger the gap. This leads to the unrealistic poll boost of 6% on the Conservatives underlying figure, compared to a more healthy 2 to 3% achieved by the other method. Mori may find slightly more Labour supporters than others - but if they used a version of the same correction they would not have this discrepency. If they had corrected in a similar way to ICM populus etc. Their figures would have been in exactly the same region.
Alex. I keep saying - and I said yesterday that there is nothing rogue about Mori apart from their headline figures - and that is not a problem of data collection but over correction. Essentially Sean agrees with me - he says underlying Lab lead of 5-6 I said 6-7. So can we put this to bed now.
Meanwhile, http://www.thatsaid.co.uk now works for me (redirecting to this site), but whether it works yet will depend on your ISP I think.
BV - works for me - nice work.
Let me know at book_value@thatsaid.co.uk if you want an email address… I think I can create 4 more.
Well, after the last few days my faith in polls of all kinds has taken a severe bashing… it may be fun to chatter about the last one, but surely it’s no more than that. Evidence comes from taking polls in the aggregate and looking at trends. It seems to me that no pollster trusts their raw results (although surely years ago they all did!) and so we get all this arithmetical alchemy to produce the kinds of figures that the pollsters find credible! When accountants do that it’s called… er, someone tell me what it’s called
In general terms, surely, any government that was 5% ahead, give or take, towards the end of the fourth year of its term, would surely be contemplating an election with equanimity provided that the two-party share stayed above 70%… below which the vagaries of FPTP come into play.
Doesn’t for me. Get one of those white pages saying What is the point of it?
‘Fraid not
I wasn’t talking about Mori, I was talking about YouGov. You can’t use the final given figure to conclude if a poll is rogue (outside the MOE) or not. The usual indication that a poll is rogue is when parties get unexpected swings for no discernable reason - this is especially noticeable with YouGov who normally have incredibly low volatility (as i demonstrated). Sean’s argument that NONE (including YouGov) of the polls are rogue on the grounds that they all have similar underlying figures does not make sense, unless he believes that every YouGov figure for the last 15 months was a rogue poll (nonsensical). What I do think likely is that one of Mori’s last two polls was rogue. More likely the previous one which had an underlying Tory figure of 27%. You can not use their correction mechanism in this case as evidence of rogueness, because the underlying figures moved to exactly the same extent as the headline ones.
Point? I don’t understand. At least I made you look
It may take a while to cascade to your ISP.
Vote Feb 05 % Vote June 04 % Change in %
Labour 136 6.1 276 9.5 - 3.4
Lib Dem 1064 47.5 1211 41.5 + 6.0
Con 1007 44.9 1254 42.9 + 2.0
Green 34 1.5 179 6.1 - 4.6
Swing from Con to Lib Dem 2.0%
72 - which seat?
Sory that was Havant By-election result
Which ward was that for Will?
2% must be the smallest swing I’ve seen in a council by-election!
Bedhampton ward I think, formerly Lib Dem but Conservatives won two seats there in the summer.
Alex the point is that all the polls this month have seen a small but discernable shift in Labour’s direction except ICM (but including Mori - if corrected in a manner in line with other pollsters) with a slight shifting down in the Lib Dem’s ratings. The Conservatives remain in their ‘magic box’ on all pollsters (including Mori if corrected in line with the others) with ICM at the top and NOP at the bottom. None of them are rogue. The data shows us that Lab is late 30’s low 40’s, The Conservatives in their ‘magic box’ and the Lib Dems around 20%. I think that the evidence is that this is the general position.
I argued vociferously yesterday that mori had over corrected and the evidence from all 5 polls (including Mori themselves) is that that is the case.
For once I think that Nick Palmer has hit the nail on the head. The reason why You Gov has given labour a spurt is the fact that suddenly many labour voters, realise that this election is in danger of being a contest (even though we know how the vagaries of FPTP mean this is probably not the case). Hence the lift they got. If they think as they did until v.recently that labour will win easily then expect the labour number to go down as more contemplate protest voting or just not bothering to vote.
Interestingly I am currently writing an essay on whether the party is over for the Conservative party?
72 I’ll say nothing more than it is a very pleasing result
Considering the County Division is the only LD one in Havant and the other Borough Ward that makes up the County Division is a fairly safe Tory seat, this by-election at least marks a turnaround in the ward compared to its most recent history and makes the May 05 Division result a relatively interesting one to watch out for.
And is it?
78 - Andrew, what are your conclusions?
Simple rarely differ Steve
I’m not so sure Andrew. That would be plausible if Yougov adjusted for turnout, but they don’t.
So what’s the final score going to be Graham? I’m going to have another bet.
82 - Or speak with one Voice?
Also, Andrew, I think that aside from people like ourselves, very few people take much notice of opinion polls. Hence, I doubt if the comparitively good results for the Tories in MORI and ICM would have registered with many people.
Graham - “all the polls this month have seen a small but discernable shift in Labour’s direction except ICM (but including Mori - if corrected in a manner in line with other pollsters) - I still don’t understand where you get this statement from - Mori would have shown a small Labour increase, a larger Conservative increase, a LibDem decrease however they corrected their figures. As I said they have their correction method, they have to stick to it. If they overcorrected this month then they ALWAYS overcorrect. But it is not their correction method which explains the rise in Conservative support.
The last month or so of local by-elections are perhaps showing a trend that the Lib Dems will perform well against the Conservatives in the South. There was a feeling amongst some that the Lib Dems would fall back in southern LD-Con marginals and advance in seats with huge Labour majorities mainly in the North.
Graham @ 77 “all the polls this month have seen a small but discernable shift in Labour’s direction […] including Mori - if corrected in a manner in line with other pollsters”
You what Graham? MORI’s figures filtered by likelihood to vote showed the Labour lead falling by 4 points, but MORI’s figures prior to filtering by likelihood to vote also showed Labour’s lead falling by 3 points.
While we can’t know for absolutely certain what would have happened if MORI had done something inbetween, I think it fair to assume that however MORI had dealt with likelihood to vote, their poll would have still shown Labour’s lead falling.
snap
Andrew - back to the washing powder - The Tories are sunk demographically. They are dying faster than they are being born - they need a young leader - they thought that was Hague but his perceived age has always been about 25 years ahead of his real age so that didn’t work.
Why doesnt UK politics throw up bright young things any more?
Good news for the Tories from the Guardian;
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/election/story/0,15803,1424919,00.html
It’s funny Roger, the guardian were completely stumped by the YouGov poll this morning. They had two or three articles about the “Tory surge” and “Labour discontent”, and then had to add a proviso to every one saying “but they would have been cheered by today’s YouGov poll” - even though the Guardian’s official line is not to give internet polling the time of day
58, Alex: look what consensus politics under a democratic STV system has produced in Ireland in the last 20 years…
I explained earlier alex. Their correction magnifies if the proportion of people who say will definitely vote for one party increases. The other corrections work more proportionately. The Cons have been put on a war footing earlier than others due to the style of their campaign, so their voters are ready to vote *now*, the other 2 parties are gearing their voters up more slowly. A 9 out of 10 voter is between 80 and 95% likely to vote, so it is right that 9 out of 10 of those are counted for every 10 voters of another party, similarly 8 out of 10’s are 75 - 85% likely to vote. Mori discounts these people completely, so has artificially magnified the raring to go Tories out of proportion leading to a bigger boost for them.
Roger. I think a fair bet at the moment would be 37/32/23 (based on a LD exposure boost) - but I will watch the polls as closely as ever
94. What? North or South?
96 - I think he’s talking about the Republic’s Economic Miracle.
Interesting thought - how come Iraq and Northern Ireland were given proportional systems (not to mention London, Scotland, Wales etc). Were they deemed to be second class and not worthy of the One True FPTP?
will the fact that the last election was held in june, when many uni students had gone home effect the results this time around in uni seats. Im thinking leeds may get more lib dems because of this.
RE Sean: No most voters do not read opinion polls. But the general tone of media coverage recently has seen the Tories taking command of the agenda on asylum, council tax and law and order. Also labour seems to have been fairly flakey recently. So a perception has been built up that the Tories are doing well again, hence the recovery for labour.
As for the Tory party, the party is not over but still languishes on the sick bed. It suffers from the electoral system and the coalition of parties on the left tactical voting. It suffers from a clash of idelogies between Thatcherism and One Nation, between authoritarianism and liberalism (The Thatcherite legacy). Finally it suffers due to its brand. Take the recent Tory proposal on asylum backed by 85% just on the idea but only 65% when associated with the Tories. Then this all tends to centre on the issue of leadership, and the need for a leader to change the brand, sort out the ideological confusion and possibly to call for electoral reform (?)
88 Good point Will. With the caveat that local by-elections are nothing more than an interesting snapshot. However I’m sure Sarah would have been making some good posts in her own style if the Tories had been thrashing the LDs in by-elections in the last month
93 I see taht article as nothing more than getting GMW worried about the Tories doing well.
94 Yes - a democratic STV system has ensured that nationalists and republicans have been represented in democratic institutions whereas beforehand the Vanguard Unionists and their friends in the DUP ensured that anyone not of the Red Hand ilk was excluded so I think STV has made a big positive difference in NI - especially as it gave those 2 superb politicians - Hulme and Alderdyce - a greater and very effective say in what decisions have been taken.
88, overall this year, the Conservative vote share has been down by 0.8% on average, compared with the previous local election, and the Lib Dem vote share has been up by 0.3% on average - almost no difference at all. Individual results will, of course, be affected by local factors.
I actually meant the Republic of Ireland Tim…
Wokingham By Election in Swallowfield ward:
Conservative polled 405 votes, Independent 120, Lib Dem 109 and UKIP 35. The turnout was 35%.
Sean - you are the voice of blue reason on this site
91 - over on the Other Place the Tory PPC for Totnes is looking for 12,000 lost Tory votes between 1992 and now …
103 Rik - yer a week behind mate. Swallowfield was a safe Tory seat and still is. Whteher the Cllr is a Tory or an “Independent” , it is a very blue rinse area. Learn from Sean. He makes very reasonable posts.
Thanks Graham. According to ;
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/index.html?userpoll.html
That translates to Con-178, Lab-379, and L/D-59. Wish me luck!
100. In fact Tim, STV has been used in Northern Ireland since just after the suspension of the Stormont parliament in 1972. What was needed was an agreed form of executive government, not voting system!
Andrew 99 - think I agree with all of that. Will you be commenting on the fact that the Tory Brand is managed by a certain Saatchi brother.
102 Aaaah - Still a valid point though. Dick Spring and and Des O’Malley are very good politicians whose voice would not have been heard under FPTP. My in-laws are Irish and they are doing very nicely thank you.
I don’t think that the Tories looking like credible challengers can do any harm at all. Yes it will encourage more Labour voters to go to the polls (but mostly in safe seats where they’re not needed), yes it may encourage tactical voting (or rather a continuation of the current situation). On the other hand it will draw voters to them who don’t like Labour and have opted out in despair at the lack of a real alternative in the last few years. And after all it really isn’t realistic for a party to challenge for government if they don’t look credible. Looking like a credible government gives people a positive reason to vote for them, relying on an anti-Labour protest can never be enough (as John Kerry found).
Totally accept that point Sean and local by-elections are dubious pointers, I wasn’t suggesting that there is a massive move to the Lib Dems in LD-Con marginals just that their vote seems to be holding up well. Some had suggested they would fall back badly versus the Conservatives whilst mainly increasing support in no hope Labour seats.
108 Agreed but doesn’t change my point about the voice of Hulme and ALderdyce not being ehard under FPTP though
111 - Alex, may I refer you to the turnout differentials between safe and marginal seats?
95 - Graham there’s some disconnection going on. We’re just going to have to give up. At least I’ve got Anthony on my side
112 Totally agree Will. I was a bit down in the dumps b4 Xmas at LD prospects but I’m pretty happy with my 63 seat prediction at the moment.
114 - you may. And?
113 - But that’s not just a case of FPTP. A system where a parliament was elected under STV and elected the government would still have produced Unionist domination. The key difference in the NI system (whatever you thought of it) was the use of d’Hondt to select the executive from the assembly.
Alex and Anthony. You are tenacious but you are wrong! The Labour party increased their underlying percentage on Mori. The Tories appear to have gained from the Lib Dems on the underlying figures. The Conservatives are recovering from an almost abysmally low 27% in Mori’s underlying, to a more normal 31%. Overall there has been a trend of Labour solidifying their lead. Why don’t you 2 accept the fact that Mori is the only pollster who are saying that the Tories have escaped their box, and only because they have overcorrected an underlying 31% to 37%. Just get over it. In the cold light of day all the other polls for Feb say Lab 38-40ish/ Con 32-34ish / LD19-20ish. A lead of 6ish. Mori would have said that too if they hadn’t of over corrected. I was accused of nitpicking to back up my argument - I think you two are way beyond nitpicking to the point of … I don’t know.
Re 106 - it was a comment on 88 - I just pressed the button too soon!
117 - that the situation is more complex and the electorate more sophisticated; I DON;T BELIEVE lABOUR WILL PILE UP MANY MOR VOTES IN SAE SEATS, BUT THEY WILL BE WWORKING FLAT OUT TO REMIND PEOPLE OF THE SITUATION IN MARGINALS.
Sorry about the caps - I’d switched on in error and couldn;t be bothered to retype
In terms of the brand, there is some fantastic stuff in Tory wars about the brand problem with Willie Hague seen as G and T man, who drives a Jaguar and wears tweed jackets. Brand is about the leader primarily. Look how TB changed Labour. This is why many though Portillo should have won in 2001. This is why when Theresa May talked about the nasty party she hit the nail on the head. Frankly to the extent the party has a brand it is seen as a party of little Englanders by the public and frankly they are probably close to the truth.
bv @ 118 - that’s what I said (in not so much detail). I was talking about the Republic of Ireland.
Underlying figures Con 31 (+4) Labour 43 (+1) Lib 18 (-3)
Headline figures Con 37 (+5) Labour 39 (+1) Lib 18 (-4)
Apologies Chrisco, I was skipreading and missed your post.
And I’m NOT saying Mori are right. But if they’re wrong they’re ALWAYS wrong so talking of ‘boxes’ within which their figures must fall to be correct (as with YouGov) makes no sense. This wasn’t a one-off ‘overcorrection’ - they ALWAYS overcorrect. It’s just sometimes this gets hidden when their underlying figures are different. This doesn’t invalidate the fact that they picked up a potential surge in Conservative support ACROSS the board.
But the problem is alex. The tories were on 27% underlying - over boosted to 32 in Jan. If they had had their proper figures they would have been on 29-30 in the headline - recovering to 33to34 at the expense of the Lib Dems. Labour have solidfied and the LDs have slipped back a little to the Tories - the pattern on most of the polls - but Labour have solidified. I don’t know how many different ways to show you. Exasperation is not the word. Please accept that all the polls are showing the same basic figures Lab 37-39ish / Con 32-33 / LD 19-20. I have to go to Exeter but pleeeeasssee alex accept that fact.
Well, I can’t see that much wrong with being a G & T man, who drives a jaguar, and wears a tweed jacket, myself.
If you go over to MORI, you’ll see they have a very interesting study of the 2001 election, which includes comparitive polling data going back to October 1974. Interestingly, Conservative support among working class voters increased between Oct. 1974, and 2001, but fell sharply among middle class voters over the same period - if anything we’re not doing enough to attract the G & T drinkers!
Personally, I think that the type of self-flagellation that Theresa May goes in for repels more voters than it attracts. If you dont’ respect yourself, how can you expect others to respect you?
Interesting point about the brand and how perceptions of the brand are often perceptions of the leader. Tony Blair and Charlie Kennedy’s “everyman” to Michael Howards reincarnation of Margaret Thatcher. As you suggest,the wrong person at the wrong time. And why can so few Conservatives see it?
Like I say there’s a disconnection. You’re arguing with something that i am not claiming. I don’t care what the actual %age figures are. I think there’s so many adjustments it’s all guesswork to some extent anyway. As Andrew Cooper says the only really meaningful data you can take from most opinion polls is their trend data. And in this months polls you pays your money and you takes your chance.
Sean - “Well, I can’t see that much wrong with being a G & T man, who drives a jaguar, and wears a tweed jacket, myself.”
Being a Lib Dem I’m all for supporting minority rights :), but whatever else they do, not many of the Middle Classes fall into that category any more.
Has Mike turned up the spam filter before going away? I have lost several innocuous posts this morning…
Roger I disagree with you to some extent I think Howard has done a reasonable job it is ‘party’ brand which was badly damaged in the short term by sleeze and economic problems and in the long term by incidents like Ann Wintertons tasteless joke. Howard has done alot to repair that brand so they are seen as a credible opposition and although he was criticised for his treatment of Boris over the Liverpool thing I think he did exactly the right thing to dispel any perceptions of prejudice. Frankly I don’t think it was tweed jackets that were the problem it was a no win situation even Ken Clarke would have struggled to suffer anything other than a heavy defeat. IDS was laughable and the image of him overtaking with goggles on over hatched lines was almost as funny as the turning up the volume speech, Howard however while not inspiring has doen a solid job.
130 Agreed. AISB polls are indicators of trends. Individual ones should be ignored.
128 - “The working class is over time being converted into the middle class” - discuss in relation to Conservative long term prospects.
I think I’d agree with most of that Will.
IMO, it is much more important for a politician to be respected than to be liked. That is why so much of the agonising over being the nice party/nasty party is so misplaced.
I agree with you about the ‘nasty party’ thing Sean, whilst there is no doubt something had to be done there is no point saying so to the electorate, it just reinforces the perception if even your own MP’s are seen to think that. Howard has acted swiftly where events have occurred that might perpetuate the ‘nasty party’ have occurred such as Boris or homophobia in Falmouth which is the right thing to do in this case actions speak louder than words and certainly have helped Howard avoid accusations of racism in relation to his immigration announcements.
Anyone else see the end of Blair’s press conference? He ended it practically begging the journalists to use the last question to ask him about the minimum wage… Shameless!
I agree that MH has made the party seem more respectable and more of an effective opposition. That does not get away from the Tory brand problems though, which run very deep. In this sense MH is like Kinnock, restoring respect to the party but unable to change the party’s image. Now this is not MH’s fault. He has only had two years in the job and knows that no one will accept a brand shift from him as being anything other than an opportunistic gimmick. But the next Tory leader has to address the problem.
This means a Tory leader, being relatively young, middle class, not accented (like Hague or Howard), being a fairly attractive figure (does he pass the snoggability test and more importantly does he have some hair). But this also means attracting new people to the party, more females and ethnic minorities. It also means gaining a consistency of purpose and belief and expressing it in the right manner. The problem for the Tories are not their policies (which on the whole are popular) but the way in which they are expressed. This will take time, but it has to be done if the party is serious about regaining power.
As for the point about Working Class and Middle Class support how about posing the link between rising numbers going to university and a fall in Middle Class support for the Tories.
139 - on the gender issue, is the issue really that you need to attract more women to the party, or that you need to get more of them selected as candidates?
Tabman there is no doubt the ‘Daily Mail’ reading groups have become one of the bedrocks of the Conservative vote and the decline of manufacturing etc. are gradually depriving Labour of their own solid base. What is more worrying for the Conservatives is the move away from them by middle class well educated people especially amongst public sector workers. Some of the greatest proportional falls in Conservtaive support have occurred in places like Cambridge, parts of London, Sheffield Hallam and Oxford this is worrying because these people are very motivated to turnout and wield disproportionate influence in opinion forming.
Surely that amounts to the same question as Tabman posed?
139 - so that’s the reason behind Tony’s 50% in Higher Education policy
Seriously - there is a link between University Education and party support, particularly for the Lib Dems (Sheffield Hallam has the highest proportion of graduates outside of London IIRC).
142 was directed at Andrew Milne’s last point.
Last few posts - there is of course always the question as to whether the Tories can shift in the direction of educated middle class opinion and remain the Conservative Party. IIRC we have had debates on this very point; a socially and economically liberal party, at home with Europe, asylum and immigration doesn’t sound much like the sort of ideas that present Conervatives can caolesce around (with the exception of economic liberalism perhaps).
Andrew while I agree policies in certain areas particularly immigration and law and order are popular I think their Health and Education policies need serious work both are key policy areas where they are behind. They have to take Labour on in their strong areas just as Labour did in theirs and that doe snot mean just recycling ideas about more private involvement.
Andrew whilst I think a new leader would to be good to have all those of things it is not essential people like strong leaders I mean Maggie didn’t exactly pass the snoggability test.
There’s no doubt this shift poses a challenge for the Tories, but probably no harder a challenge than that faced by the US Republican, or Australian Liberals, as the trends in both of those countries would be similar.
The interesting point is why the Conservatives (currently) unsuccessful, but the latter two parties successful?
To be honest I think branding/image makes a difference, but only at the margins. Events will be the main drivers of the parties’ fortunes.
146 - Alan Clarke thought she did
As did Sir Ian Moncrieff, Of That Ilk.
Reading Andrew’s posting, I think I’ll nominate myself as the next Tory leader…I’m glad that only “some” hair is required for the job.
Sean at 62 and 128: I think you may well be right about the true underlying position (Labour lead of 6% or so), and that we’re all getting excited about fairly random variation, pushed by whatever the day’s headlines happen to have been when the poll was taken. I also think you’re right about the de-classing of British politics. My constituency ranges from wall-to-wall former miners’ cottages to streets with houses whose frontage is literally more than 200 feet long. There are no streets where I expect to get over 70% or under 30% of the vote. (That’s why Voter Vault isn’t targeting as well as hoped, I suspect.)
That’s quite healthy, I think - basically it means people are working it out for themselves.
Nick
I think the challenge for the Conservatives is to get a broader base of support which despite the hard right rheotoric the Republicans have witness Arnie in California. Unfortunately the Conservatives in Britain have neither the mass backing for neo-liberal economics present in the US or the degree of rural social conservatism present in Oz. They face a balancing act of becoming more socially liberal without losing their core socially conservative vote to people like UKIP it can be done but it is tough.
139 Andrew Milne - I dunno, on that Cockerell docu on MH, MH’s old accent was weirdly fascinating - I’ve never heard anything like it before. Maybe he should get it back.
153 - AT if he did that Peepill would wonder where it’d come from.
According to Anthony Wells’ site, the Standard has got hold of Labour’s list of 107 key seats. This doesn’t include some marginals but does include some thought safe, such as Blackburn and Bloton West. Unfortunatley they don’t publish the list of seats nor indicate from whom the threat comes.
[155] Bolton West - majority 13.4%, 95th most marginal Labour seat. Not altogether surprising that it features on a list of 107 key seats.
The Republicans in the US, particulary in 2000 where very successful in appealing to non traditional republican voters, especially hispanics. Remember Bush use of the term compassionate conservatism (with the no child left behind act). Look at Arnie in California as well (a state that is dominated by Democrats). As for OZ, I think it is just generally a very right wing country on social issues as well as asylum and immigration. Howard in Australia has enacted far reaching reforms on health and education though. Also in US look at Bush’s reforms on education and his boosting of medicare.
The conservatives are obsessed by UKIP far too much. They are with the exception of European elections a minor party with the status of the Greens or Respect on the left. They will never attract mass support. The party can easily move more towards the middle, without sacrificing any support.
As for the snoggability/huggability test, Mrs T was thought very attractive by a number of men in the 70s and 80s, even amongst her opponents (article by Lauren Booth on this in the New Statesman recently). JM was a huggability guy and TB a snoggability guy.
As for the party’s general position, look at the economist every week. If the party followed its principles it could stay true to its economic, reforming self while adopting