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Mori’s 37% Tory share gives market a boost

Today’s Mori poll in the FT has led, inevitably, to money going on the Tories in the spread-betting markets. The shares of LAB 39: CON 37: LD 18 are the best for Michael Howard’s party for years and were only exceeded in the strange circumstances of the 2000 petrol crisis and in the aftermath of David Kelly’s death in 2003.

Following on from the improved figures from ICM earlier in the week it is not surprising that the market consensus is moving to the Tories getting more than 200 seats in the coming General Election.

The IG Index price fix this morning was: LAB 352-359: CON 193-200: LD 68-72. putting the buy Tory level at the 200 mark for the first time in months. You can still get slightly better value with the Spreadfair exchange which has LAB 357-361.5: CON 191.2 - 196: LD 69-71.4

With a further poll from YouGov expected tomorrow it’s possible we will see further movements during the day. YG usually shows better Tory figures than the other pollsters and it’s possible that the new number could have Michael Howard ahead.

With the race looking as though it will be closer than people were predicting the prices on the turnout have also moved. It’s now just evens on 60% or more. A month ago this was more than 3/1.

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© Mike Smithson 2005

Are Labour’s campaign tactics working?

The February MORI poll for the Financial Times has the Tories up 5% to one of their highest levels for a long time. The vote shares with comparisons to the January survey are:- LAB 39: CON 37 (+5): LD 18 (-4).

The move to the Tories is in line with the ICM poll on Tuesday and seems partly at the expense of “others” which would appear to be down at 6% - reflecting a big decline in support for UKIP. It also follows Labour intensive campaign launch with Tony Blair’s six city helicopter tour, the pledge card launch, and last week’s high profile day on Channel 5.

Today’s figures mean that Mori are showing an 8% move to the Tories since October and would seem to underline ICM’s message that the Labour attempt to “demonise” the Tory leader is not working

Most of the survey was carried out before the Tory announcement on the council discount for pensioners which many commentators believe will give Michael Howard a further boost.

Apart from a survey immediatly after the David Kelly suicide in 2003 the 37% Tory share is the highest for the party since the petrol crisis in September 2000 when a 39% Mori share was reported. A big difference between today’s Mori poll and the February ICM poll is the support level for the Lib Dems. ICM had them at 21% - the level they have been at for months - while Mori is showing a 4% decline.

There are three things to note about Mori’s methodology:-

Labour nerves will be steadied by the fact that if this poll is replicated at the General Election and there is a uniform national swing then the Baxter seat calculation has: LAB 371: CON 208: LD 38.

The Tories will be encouraged by Mori’s record of overstatement of Labour. Their final poll four years ago had a lead for Tony Blair of 15% against the 9.3% that actually happened.

The Lib Dems will recall that Mori tends to show party shares which are on the low side and in the February 2001 survey had them at 14% against the 18.8% that they actually achieved.

The confirmation by a second poll of what ICM found earlier in the week will encourage further moves to the Tories on the spreadbetting markets where we expect Michael Howard’s party to rise above the 200 mark.

Tomorrow the YouGov poll should be published in the Daily Telegraph which - if the trend of ICM and Mori is repeated - could see the Tories back in the lead.

© Mike Smithson 2005

Will voters care about today’s Guardian revelations?

The extent to which the Iraq war will be a General Election issue could be tested by revelations in the Guardian today that the Attorney General, Lord Goldsmith QC, warned Prime Minister Tony Blair less than two weeks before the invasion that military action could be deemed illegal.

According to the report, the Government was so concerned that it might be prosecuted that it set up a team of lawyers to prepare for legal action in an international court and a Parliamentary answer issued days before the war in the name of Lord Goldsmith was actually drawn up in Downing Street.

The advice of the Attorney-General has never been published and today’s revelation will, no doubt, lead to more calls that it should be and keep this in the headlines.

For Labour, as time has gone on, and particularly since the Iraqi elections in January, the issue of why Britain went to war in the first place has dropped down the agenda although the polls show that the proportion of people opposed to the military action remains very high.

The problem for the Tories is that it is hard for them to raise issues about the war because they supported it and whenever Michael Howard has tried to pursue specific matters the charge of him being “opportunistic” has been difficult to avoid.

For the Liberal Democrats the Guardian story could not have been better timed because they have tended to get drowned in the initial skirmishes of the election campaign and Sir Menzies Campbell is one of their most effecting spokesmen.

© Mike Smithson 2005

Why is Howard beating Blair for female support?

With the betting markets moving a notch to the Tories following the Guardian ICM survey further information from the poll, now available, shows the potential big gender gap at the coming election.

Interviewees were asked to rate whether a number of leading politicians were “an asset or a liability to their party”. Tony Blair came out with a rating of 45-43 in favour - but there was a huge difference between the men surveyed and the women. The males went for Blair by 48-42 while the women gave him a negative rating.

With Michael Howard the overall rating was 45-35 that he was an asset - a good result given that Labour’s key strategy in recent weeks has been to demonise the Tory leader. But amongst the men surveyed the gaps was much less - 46 to 40. With the women, however, Michael Howard was rated as an asset by 48 to 30 - a very big margin.

Charles Kennedy had an overall asset-liability ratio of 57 to 23 but he scored slightly higher amongst the men than the women.

Given that it was Blair’s success in attracting women to New Labour that was the back-bone of the 1997 landslide this new trend could be very significant.

The pollsters are currently testing all sorts of different approaches to finding out our view of different personalities. For the YouGov survey expected in the Telegraph on Friday people are being asked who they most like watching and listening to on the radio and television.

The ICM poll has led to more money going on the Tories to win most seats at the General Election. Since last night on Betfair the price has dropped from 9/1 to 15/2 and lower. Clearly this is a very long-shot but some punters have been encouraged to take the plunge.

© Mike Smithson 2005

Is Howard’s campaigning having an impact?

The February ICM poll in the Guardian tomorrow shows that Labour’s lead has dropped to 3%. The vote shares with changes on the same poll last month are: LAB 37 (-3) : CON 34 (+3) : LD 21 (n/c).

For the Tories this is the best position with ICM since March last year and suggests that Michael Howard’s high-profile initiatives on crime and immigration are making an impact.

For Labour the poll will be a big disappointment because it is the first full survey since the the party cranked up the campaigning ten days ago with six-stop helicopter tour, the pledge card launch, Labour’s spring conference and Tony Blair’s high profile day on Channel 5.

For the Lib Dems the 21% share will be a great relief as it follows the Populus and NOP surveys earlier in the month which had Charles Kennedy’s party at 18%.

Although a 37-34 split would give Tony Blair a very substantial majority on a uniform national swing they are starting to get into the range where the outcome could be less certain. Using the Martin Baxter calculator with a 2% tactical unwind factor and you get LAB 356: CON 206: LD 54 - a Labour majority of 64.

ICM is probably the most market-sensitive of the pollsters and there is little doubt that this will have a big impact on the spread-betting markets where we expect Labour to drop and the Tories to rise.

Surveying for the ICM poll took place before the announcement of the Tory council tax plan for over-65s. The next major poll should be YouGov in the Telegraph on Friday. The last YG poll had Labour just 1% ahead.

IG Index spread prices: LAB 354-361 : CON 191-198: LDs 68 -72 .
Spreadfair prices: LAB 355.9-360 : CON 191.2-194.7 : LDs 68 -70
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© Mike Smithson 2005

After the poll famine - the feast: we hope!

With the opening of the offical campaign for a May 5 General Election only weeks away there’s been a dearth of opinion polls. So far in February there have been just three national surveys and we are now three-quarters of the way through, what is admittedly, the shortest month.

Compare that with January when we saw a total of ten polls including five extra surveys beyond the five regular ones that are usually commissioned every month.

So far Labour’s pledge card, Tony Blair’s “I want to make up” speech in Gateshead, and the party’s response to the Tory plans on immigration have hardly been put to the test. Likewise the Tory move on health checks for immigrants has not been surveyed in terms of its impact on the party shares.

The Lib Dems, meanwhile are anxious to see if the big drops reported by Populus and NOP are also there from other pollsters.

Although we all moan about the polls - when we don’t have them those who try to gamble or predict the outcome of elections have nothing to go by. We are flying blind.

Well the period of poll famine is nearly over. The Guardian’s monthly ICM survey should be published in the next day or so; the Telegraph’s monthly YouGov poll is usually featured on the final Friday while the Independent on Sunday has made the last weekend of the month the slot for its Communicate Research report.

We wondered whether the newspapers that commission opinion polls have decided that the election is such a foregone conclusion that they are preserving their polling budgets until the campaign itself.

© Mike Smithson 2005