Can money buy you more votes?
March 29th, 2005
- Has your Tory candidate passed the Ashcroft test?
Is your Tory PPC one of the lucky ones who are on the “Bearwood List” - a special group of candidates who are said to have been hand-picked by the former Conservative party treasurer and Belize-based multimillionaire, Lord Ashcroft, to receive extra attention and money to fight this election
The chosen ones are said to be in seats the Tories must hold or win and their campaigns have benefited by donations reported to be as large as £21,000. These are individual donations to the constituencies themselves and have by-passed the party’s central organisation.
Visiting the town of Bedford, where I’m moving back to in a fortnight’s time, and you can’t but notice that a different form of political campaign is taking place. As well as the standard “Are you thinking what we’re thinking” Tory bill-boards there are huge poster sites dedicated to bespoke ads on behalf of the local candidate. A flashy new campaign headquarters has just been opened and thousands of households have been sent a specially produced CD-Rom. This features a series of mini-films of the man himself and promoting what’s presented as a warm, approachable but highly effective individual who is strongly rooted in the local community.
- The Tories are playing to win here, there’s big money going into this local campaign and it has certainly got people talking about the candidate.
What is surprising is that Bedford, where I stood for the Lib Dems in 1992, is on the list at all. It is down as the Labour seat number 111 in terms of marginality and if seats like this starting changing hands then we are firmly in hung parliament territory.
Surely the money could have been better spent in a constituency where a win was more achievable?
One wonders, too, how Tory activists and PPCs in seats not chosen by Lord Ashcroft feel about being left out. This sort of thing can be very divisive.
Whether the extra resource will produce more gains we will have to wait and see – but it might be something spread-betters need to factor in. If Ashcroft’s lucky candidates enjoy disproportionate successes then it will certainly affect the Commons seat markets.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
“Surely the money could have been better spent in a constituency where a win was more achievable?”
Perhaps they are! I really hope they’re not aiming at that many “marginals” though, with that kind of cash. Any figures as to how many and what seats are getting funding? i.e. do we know the Bearwood List?
All I can say is that Ashcroft seems to have taken a hard judgement and only funded those seats deemed winnable AND who did not already have the resources necessary to fight a full campaign. There is not necessarily a negative comment on seats who didnt get the money, they may have been deemed to have enough money in the bank already!
I’m sure you’re expecting this Rick - are you on it?
“As some day it may happen that a victim must be found,
I’ve got a little list–I’ve got a little list
Of society offenders who might well be underground,
And who never would be missed–who never would be missed!
There’s the pestilential nuisances who write for autographs–
All people who have flabby hands and irritating laughs–
All children who are up in dates, and floor you with ‘em flat–
All persons who in shaking hands, shake hands with you like that–
And all third persons who on spoiling tête-à-têtes insist–
They’d none of ‘em be missed–they’d none of ‘em be missed!
CHORUS.
He’s got ‘em on the list–he’s got ‘em on the list;
And they’ll none of ‘em be missed–they’ll none of ‘em be miss’d!”
South Thanet is on it - PPC Mark MacGregor has got the full £21,000 which he claims to have spent already on, quote, “bits of paper to go through people’s doors”. Yeah right.
Why “Bearwood”, anyone?
Tabman, I think you should stop going to Bill and Ben.
You ask: “Can Money Buy You More Votes?”
I think that we all know the answer to that. Yes.
Labour relies on oligopsonised trades unions. The government of the day relies on the Exchequer (ie. you and me) to pay their bribes for them. The Tories rely on big, oligopolised businesses. Everyone else relies on funds raised by membership cards, raffle tickets and coffee mornings.
The result is a market in votes. Unsurprisingly, the highest bidder wins. Shame that the invoice is sent to us mugs.
re 6.
It was reported in February that the vehicle for the gifts is a company called Bearwood Corporate Services, a subsidiary of Bearwood Holdings which the peer controls.
8 - I wish i could call you cynical, but you’re right(!) As Lib Dem MP’s have conceded to me in the past, they have no core donators which is always a disadvantage they will face.
7 ” “
11 ? ?
8 - this Tory has no big business contributions and relies on donations from individuals who support my campaign. We are getting regular cheques of £5 - £25 returned with my surveys. It all helps!
I got a tory CD-Rom through the post over the weekend. I haven’t had a look at it yet. Our seat is one of the new Scottish ones, formerly Perth not sure what we are now, it’s usually an SNP/Conservative toss up.
14:
Perth and North Perthshire
Region: East Scotland
MP Annabelle Ewing (NAT) Electorate 70,718 Turnout 61.56% Top
2001 Votes 2001 Share Prediction
NAT 15,746 36.17% 36.00%
CON 11,840 27.20% 27.82%
LAB 9,720 22.33% 19.27%
LIB 5,259 12.08% 13.43%
MIN 867 1.99% 1.99%
OTH 105 0.24% 1.48%
NAT Majority 3,906 8.97% Pred Maj 8.19%
One of few realistic Scottish Tory chances, so perhaps!
GQ - it appears that you are not familiar with the works of the Masters.
16 - most evidently!
Thanks for that piece Mike. I wouldn’t have put Bedford down as a realistic prospect, although Labour have performed very badly in local elections there.
If there is a serious prospect that Bedford could fall, then Nick Palmer had better look to his laurels!
18 - Broxtowe’s 75th on the list, Bedford 111th, so most probably!
18. I would not have put Bedford down either but Labour could only manage fourth place in the mayoral election a year or so ago - although the borough covers a lot more than the Bedford seat. In that contest the LDs came second to the boss of a local newspaper group who campaigned under something called “Better Bedford” and won converts from all the parties.
Does anyone know where there is a copy of this tory target list, or do I have to fiddle about with Baxter until I make up my own?
I have contact with one Tory PPC in a target seat (and I will decline to say which) who ISN’T part of Ashcroft’s brigade, but his neighbouring seat is. The campaigning put in by both - supported by CCS and CCO is amazing. What is good is that it tends not to be lofty superior campaigning but real on-the-ground stuff - really “out-Lib-Dem-ing” and the LibDems. This cash and the new campaign techniques will make a difference.
I know a London marginal (tiny Labour majority) where the Tory candidate has got through (according to rumour) 750k of his own and the Tory party’s money, has several hunts canvassing for him (the mind boggles) and yet our returns and the word on the doorstep still indicate that we have a good chance of holding it - enough said!!
21 - http://www.psr.keele.ac.uk/area/uk/e01/labmajelec.htm , thanks to Mike
4 - Tabman Steve - I know it’s from the Mikado but please don’t forget I’m the product of a working class background,if you couldn’t use it or eat it it was no good.P.S How many votes will the shop lifters ploy bring in?
…and for what its worth, despite my best friend from Uni switching Lab to Con in Bedford, I do think Labour will hold it.
8 - you seemed to have forgotten that Lord Sainsbiry recently donated £5 million to Labour. Quite a lot more than Lord Ashcrofts total.
£21,000 would also be small fry if the Union money was added up in certain seats, particularly staff time and premises.
23 - £750k - I think someone is having you on. You could certainly more than notice that even a £100k was being spent on a seat.
But you have to thank that nice Tony Blair for allowing it. He brought in the 2000 Act, which allows political parties locally to spend like mad before the election promoting a candidate. Hitherto, you could only promote the Party and not a candidate.
23 - Matthew I suggest you get the old wives to check the sources of their tales! I can guess precisely which seat you are talking about and there is no way they have spent £750k! They might dream about it but that is all.
It is certainly true that we are all benefitting from extra sources of help but the idea that anyone has “several hunts canvassing” for them is also laughable. See todays Times for a useful summary of help from the hunting fraternity and how it is with delivery etc rather than canvassing.
£750k? Loose change for Kin-kell …
To paraphrase Lord Percy Percy: “A piffling £750k? Pay the man Edmund and damn his impudence.”
Laurels, what laurels?
It’s been 16 hours a day for quite some time, with the occasional break to chat to you lot…
As I commented on another thread, there is a lot of Tory money being spent in Broxtowe, but not on the scale you describe in Bedford. 10+ non-personalised “are you thinking” billboards, an A3 coloured glossy leaflet for the candidate patchily delivered by hand, lots of phone canvassing in Indian and American (?) accents, and I’d estimate 20,000 direct mail letters from Michael Howard to the richer parts of the constituency (it really does seem to come down to that, for all the claims for Voter Vault). Very little visible Tory ground war so far. No DVDs.
FWIW, today’s canvassing (my first since pre-Easter and pre-Flight) was the best for quite some time - a small further swing to Labour since 2001, in a predominantly C1/C2 ward. Nobody mentioned Flight but several said “We don’t want them getting in and messing things up again” or similar. Small sample, so this is just anecdotal stuff.
Oh, and we’ve got DVDs of our own - a wave of them is going out tomorrow.
Do you take steps to establish that people can actually watch the DVDs before you deliver them, or are you receiving money from manufacturers?
It’s going to be interesting once the election is called whether the volume of leaflets can be maintained in areas where there is paid rather than volunteer delivery.
If the Royal Mail is the means of paid delivery then they will be too busy with polling cards, postal votes and the freepost election addresses to continue the paid delivery.
Even if some other avenue of paid delivery is used, the extra cost involved will mean the election expenses limit becomes a factor.
19 - GQ - in regard to Broxtowe I don’t sense any sort of swing away from Nick Palmer to the Tories however the area used to be natural tory and their underlying strenght must be still there.
I live in the Nuthall Ward and the Parish Council until a few years ago was tory dominated when there was an uprising by Independents who completely wiped the Tories out.Labour & the Lib Dems did not stand.This uprising continued in the Borough elections of 2003 and the Ward returned two Independents completely ruining the Tories night.
Unfortunately as is the way of the world the new Parish Council appears to have spent the few years fighting amongst itself and many of the councillors have resigned.
There is a parish by-election on Thursday for four vancancies,I have received election literature from the Tories and 4 independents.I don’t think Labour or Lib Dems will stand - it’s just not their ward.
If the tories have been forgiven by the electorate then I would expect them to be returned in some style.I thought one of the independents was going to stand as a Veritas candidate which would have been interesting,to me at least but that’s not the case.If any one apart from me is interested I will go the count and report back.
Bedford may be on Ashcroft’s list but most of the money there will have been raised by the candidate who is pretty dynamic and has an unusually young and driven team including councillors from Brickhill (a ward in Bedford). It’s an unlikely Tory win but it won’t be for lack of trying.
19 - I hope you’re right about no swing to the Tories. Thanks for the report
32 -It’s going to be interesting once the election is called whether the volume of leaflets can be maintained in areas where there is paid rather than volunteer delivery.
No it wont, as the limit spend per constituency is around £10,500. The reason it is all so different this time is due to the changes in the law. Until the Political Parties Act of 2000, candidates could only promote their party and not themselves. Now it is a free for all, until expenses start on probably 11 April, (assuming election on 5th May)
After that date, spending is strictly controlled. The rate increase from the last election is very small, but due to changes in the law, parties no longer delcare items on a notional basis. So for instance, hire of offices (which were already owned), could in the past have been £200. Now it must be the full economical rent. Can u image that in even Bethnal Green !
so much more use of the freepost (which had been in decline, as few candidates sent on a one per elector basis).
It would be surprising as the election gets closer whether anyone will really vote Tory this time who didn’t last time. Conservative voters aren’t known to vote for altruistic reasons and it’s clear to the vast majority that they’re better off now than they were in ‘01. So why would they take the risk of changing? No one really votes because they’re afraid of immigrants or Gypsies. Far more likely to worry about hospitals schools and house values. And these are vastly better than in ‘01
30 Nick, I had one of those calls too. I asked the lady where she was calling from - Birmingham, not as exotic as you might have thought !
Flight is on Newsnight making some sensible comments. This chap is making mincemeat of the foolish M.Howard
All this talk of Bedford prospects impels me to a reply. I’m afraid that Messrs Fuller (the extremely active Tory who troubles my butler with his missives several time a week), Hall (the very smarmy neo-Blairite) and Headley (the very earnest p-c LibDem) are mere arrivistes on the Bedford scene. What my tenants constantly tell me is they yearn for the good old days of a self-governing Bedford and b*lls to the lot of ye. If only I were to allow my name to go forward, they would shoulder me through the streets (mean and pot-holed that they are). Unfortunately as a disloyal subject, that would be illegal, but the lots of things are these days….
37 - you really like your sweeping generalisations, don’t you Roger? Have you ever considered a career in political punditry?
39 - is or was? Doesn’t seem to be on…
4 & 16 Tabman Steve: Be careful who you quote. Your piece from W.S.Gilbert continues: “There’s the n*gger entertainer and the others of his race…”; not sentiments acceptable today, and barely then. A master? Not in my opinion.
I’m not convinced there’s some sort of Tory golden list. If there was then regardless of local Tory splits that have been reported on this site then Richmond Park would be in it. It’s clearly not, as the level of campaigning has been pretty poor (from all sides) - I’ve had my first communication from the Tories - and about three from Susan Kramer.
If Ashcroft is funding massive campaigns for particular candidates (regardless of winnability) then he is bonkers (and sorry Kinkell - M’Lord got there first).
If the Tories truly understand targeting (of which I’m not convinced) then they don’t waste money in their 111th winnable seat and neglect more marginal ones.
37
Doesn’t Roger’s bilious post deserve a mild reprimand, Mike? Otherwises we’ll all be slagging off each other’s supporters as less worthy human beings than ours.
I don’t think 37 was that bad. The point of whether many more Tories will vote is a valid one and arguably backed up by the polls where there’s little improvement.
32 - it is a very good point! The Lib Dems seems to survive on using the Parliamentary rules to put out as much literature as they can at public expense without breaking the rules (too much). My Lib Dem opponent has been “writing” to people for the last few months on everything he can think of as well as producing two Parliamentary reports at public expense (Sept 04 and Feb 05).
His big weakness is his use of “paid for” delivery across whole areas of the constituency where the Libs seem to be weak despite holding the ward in the locals. WHere I live is entirely delivered by LondonLetterbox.co.uk. We will be watching this during the election as he will struggle to pay for delivery and put out much quality literature. By contrast I have 185 voluntary deliverers and cover pretty much the whole constituency by voluntary help. Thats how I have got out three full colour newspapers in the last four months, plus numerous special local editions and glossy single issue literature. Oh and on top I have surveyed about two thirds of the constituency.
Now Im off to bed!
Orpington is on the Bearwood list according to the Liberal newsletter. A marginal which the liberals have been getting closer each year. Only 269 votes in it last time.
As I asked in 1, do we know what constituencies are receiving this or is it all dribs and drabs info?
37 Yes, more people will vote Tory than in 2001.
Richard (Rik) - care to substantiate your allegations at 46? Are you implying that your opponent is misusing public funds?
I have to say 185 deliverers doesn’t sound very much - most MPs would expect to have at least 500. Are you missing Mr Ashcroft’s money?
I can’t think of many constituencies with 500 deliverers. That’s about 70 leaflets per deliverer, which would be very meagre. Fair enough in, say, the Highlands, but not otherwise.
flight watch: he has the 50 signitures needed to call the meetings. Will be held on monday and wednesday of next week.
Anything happening around then?
Re: 46 - sounds like you’ve got the seat won, Rik. Any idea what your odds are as it sounds like we should all rush down to Sutton and get a bet on…..
Sean@ 49. More in numbers or more %. Or are you hedging that one?
33: Mildly interested, of course (yes, one of the independents will shortly stand as a Veritas County candidate, I think), but Nuthall parish politics have been exotic and strange for some time - as senior constituency Tories privately agree. Outside Nuthall, contested parish party politics have more or less died out - the LibDems in Stapleford have just amicably offered Labour a free run to replace a retiring councillor, and in Cossall (where I live) I can never remember who belongs to what, if anything. After all, what, really, is the difference between Labour, LibDems and Tories on, say, floral arrangements or park benches?
With regards to Bedford, I feel it unlikely the Tories will gain there, as unlike what is stated in a previous post the labour vote seems relatively solid - the party gained seats at the last local election! That said, it is a naturally conservative seat - the small town of Kempston is included in the seat and is where most of the swing votes lie, if the Troeis campaign hard there it could still happen for them. It should be noted that if ‘better Bedford’ run a serious campaign (which they have shown little sign of so far) then this could also change the outlook dramatically.
My advice would be not to think about Bedford too much when betting - with a very vocal local independendent party having been around for the last few years anything could happen!
Are the tories campaiging hard in the port seats such as Dover, Portsmouth etc.etc. I wonder if maybe they can win a few of those with their immigration policies - if they can this isnt being shown on the predictors.
51 - Sean - 500 deliverers is about right for a well organised Lib Dem constituency. With that many you run a double network and pile out loads of leaflets come the election without losing too many helpers as a result.
43 - the version I googled had the word “Banjo” in place of the perjorative you quoted - I was not aware.
Besides - the point of the quotation was for the chorus.
51 - Dan are you implying that Sutton & Cheam is not well run from the Lib Dem side, since they struggle to find enough volunteers? I suspect that few constituencies have 500 deliverers, except perhaps in rural areas!
If you read what I said, I said he was putting out literature “without breaking the rules”. The point is that the rules are so flexible that they allow MPs (of all parties) to continually write to anyone who has ever written to them or signed a petition. Lib Dem incumbents are very good at using this rule to keep their profile up at public expense, whereas a challenger has to find the funds and deliver literature at their own expense. Defeat the MP and you cut off much of the Lib Dem’s publicity! FACT!
60 Richard - did you get my e-mail. If you did was in any use?
Also has anyone else read Fraser Nelson’s column in the Scotsman. It picks up on quite a few themes raised on this site.
As for constituencies having 500 deliverers so far as I know the biggest Lib Dem constituency party in Scotland (North East Fife) is the only one to have more than 500 members let alone deliverers. Edinburgh South (in the year to 31/12/03) only had around 350 members.
62 - Just to add to the above Argyll & Bute, a Lib Dem held marginal, only had 127 members in the year to 31/12/03.
47 Rik - “The Lib Dems seems to survive on using the Parliamentary rules to put out as much literature as they can at public expense without breaking the rules (too much).”
That’s a fairly serious allegation - can you substantiate that claim that he’s broken the rules?
Further to other comments regarding numbers of deliverers. In this west country Lib Dem seat we certainly run on the basis of around 70-80 houses per deliverer. You certainly need that number of deliverers to keep up the pace during the campaign itself when multi-deliveries are required (and people go on holiday!) - and no we don’t pay for deliveries at any time, we don’t have the finance!
60 - No, Rik, what you said was “[He’s] not breaking the rules (too much).” My understnding of English is that you are saying that he *is* breaking the rules, but not “too much” (whatever that may mean). As I said, that’s a fairly serious sllegation which I presume you can substantiate?
Max 61 - what you don’t understand about the Lib Dems is that we have many supporters and leafletters who aren’t, and never want to be, party members. Our loss in terms of the revenue generated, but our gain in terms of their support in electioneering.
It would not be very shocking for a constituency party to have more deliverers than members. Lots of deliverers/tellers/attendees at party events are not members (in all parties). Argyll and Bute Lib Dems should probably try harder to convert deliverers into members if Max is right but it says very little about how big their network is.
Tabman - Have you taken a pomposity pill this morning? Rik is entitled to his comments and to make what value judgements he chooses. You’ll be foaming at the mouth and chewing you Charlie Kennedy blow up doll next!
With regard to the Ashcroft list, Ashcroft has taken a very hard headed view of psephology, campaigning, history and ability of candidates, in terms of his targeting. These stories of him creating a “cadre” of Ashcroftites is utter balls - he just wants the Tories to win the seats.
Sarah - perhaps in your case you’re so used to breaking the rules that an allegation of such would cause you no bother.
the proper english term for Rik´s comments appear to be defamation. not about george galloway, i admit. but shouldn´t have been posted.
Off Message at 45. I’m sorry you found my post 37 offensive enough to consult the umpire.
I do, though, stick to my post. The perception has always been that the “left” are concerned with feeding the world, the “right” with feeding themselves.
We now have a Tory government in all but name. And one that has been particularly sucessful in delivering things that will appeal to the “haves” probably more than the “have nots”.
Mr Howards pitch is to self interest. This has been the Tory way since Margaret Thatcher. In all respects, save for their immigrant and Gypsy bashing they are getting this from the Labour government. So why would these voters switch?
There many Labour voters who are not going to vote Labour this time. Some because of the war But others others from the ideological left. Where feeding Africans would be a more appealing slogan than 5p off income tax.
I can’t see either of these groups signing up to Michael Howards New Conservative Party. So where are their new voters coming from?
I thought what RW was saying was that the rules were too slack.
Fear not, girls and boys, he’ll sing a different song after he’s elected
“Elected (Alice Cooper)
Top rank cut of meat, I’m your choice
I want to be elected
A yankee doodle dandy in a gold rolls royce
I want to be elected
Kids want a savior, they don’t need a fake
I want to be elected
We’re all gonna rock to the rules that I make
I want to be elected
Elected, elected, elected, woah
And personally I don’t care”
We got our first Labour pamphlet through the door and a covering letter written by on HoC paper.
69 - if you’re going to use his own words to accuse Rik of defamation you might as well quote what he wrote correctly. He didn’t write
““[He’s] not breaking the rules (too much).” ” as far as I can see - he said the LibDems (general) aren’t. My reading of what he was trying to write was that they are not breaking the rules, but bending them to the limit. ie. they are not technically doing anything wrong, but what they do is not in the spirit of the legislation. Unfortunate choice of words, of course, which should probably be retracted - at least he didn’t accuse anyone of doing anything for “political acceptability”
The level of support clearly varies a great deal. This weekend in South Ribble the labour MP was twice spotted on his own trying to deliver the same leaflet that started going out in January!!!!
Take a look at what UKIP are doing in Boston ans Skegness for a typical example. Last week they took out a four page advert in the Citizen newspaper as well as there other huge costs and their candidate turns out to be a former doner to the Labour Party from Essex. Could one excuse me from smelling a rat?
RE 44 and others: It is very difficult to tell the level of party campaigning often. I live in Richmond and did deliver the interesting Tory leaflet (on childcare I think) last weekend. But telling a party’s strength through leafletting is a spurious exercise. In the road I live in we rarely get anything from the Lib Dems. It could because they know the road is very Tory (has over 15 party members in it), the ward is Tory (East Sheen), we are party members or it could because they are not enough Lib Dem leafletters to cover this road. My point is that it is that you cannot therefore really tell the level of party activity from it. Just as Dan has 3 from the Lib Dems and one from the Tories so we have about 3 from the Tories this year and none from the Lib Dems.
On other points. I saw Howard Flight on Newsnight last night and was not particularly impressed by him. His arguments seemed weak and he seemed to be contradicting himself a lot.
As for the Tory poster campaign I was in Southwark yesterday and saw another Tory poster (on Hospitals)in an area they cannot win. Is this a wise use of money?
Finally on another point, I am not convinced the Tories yet understand how to campaign against the Lib Dems judging from local experience. Having a poster advertising the policy on immigration in liberal Richmond is not v.sensible. The newsletter I delivered while much better in terms of layout, concentrated on some strange areas of policy. In an area like this, as in many others the key is not so much putting across the Tory message (which most people already know) but in defining your opponent, and in the case of the Lib Dems, by painting them as soft on crime and high on taxation. IMHO the party at large still has a lot to learn about campaigning.
78 - whereabouts in Southwark? I suppose there might be value for the Tories in catching the attention of London Bridge commuters. I’ve also seen one (the “bloke on early release” one) on Southwark St, presumably aimed at drivers as it can be a busy road.
Nick - 56 - “After all, what, really, is the difference between Labour, LibDems and Tories on, say, floral arrangements or park benches” - the colour !
Funny you say that - in a debate where I am the Tory candidate gave a superbly delivered speech. It really was excellent - except the subject matter which was standard Tory fare on MRSA, immigration and the odd pensioner line. The audience were a local sixth form…. they all looked rather bemused.
Fair point @ 79. Posters are aimed not just at the people living in the area, but at people travelling through it.
RE 78: Near Southwark Tube Station. On the road going left from Guy’s Hospital.
RE 78: Near Southwark Tube Station. On the road going left from Guy’s Hospital. I take your point though. I saw a lot when driving through Brent the other day obviously aimed at the passing motorists rather than voters in the solid labour seats.
84 - sounds like Southwark St. Could be the same one I saw, if they rotate the messages.
Oh, and for discussing individual poster sites, I claim my Roughton Award!
78 - isn’t part of pushing immigration about undermining UKIP? And Ukip are pretty vocal in Richmond.
The Tory posters are largely (but not exclusively) in target seats and on major throughfares. Common sense really!
Rik passim - If people do not do something too much, they still do it. Sending out reports using the HoC fees fund or letters on Parliamentary paper is something MPs of all parties do. I assume Rik is saying that, if elected, he would not do such a thing and will report all Tory MPs (as well as those of other colours) to the appropriate authorities. At least, I assume that’s what he will do. The general point - what can and cannot go out on parliamentary expenses - is one that does need tightening up, though.
Mr Smithson are you still wanting suggestions for individualSeats to monitor/predict?
There is certainly a lot more money being spent- especially at the Tory end. However I would question the value of some of it. In a Tory target seat, currently held by the Lib Dems, there have been at least three leaflets sent out through Royal Mail. The leaflets are glosssy, but rather generic- you get the strong feeling that they have been prepared centrally. The Lib Dem leaflets have much more local content, and have been personally delivered by the local delivery network, who talk to the punters as they go around.
The first canvass, despite seemingly frenetic Tory activity, is not showing much reward for the considerable expense that they have already put in. In fact one punter said to me, “Well, shows you that there are not enough Tories round here to deliver”
The Tories have money, but seem very weak on the ground war. How many members are they supposed to have, and what proportion are too old to campaign effectively? I mean, we know that all parties are aging, but the Tories are aging faster- this could be a literally terminal problem, if they can make no progress this time.
90 - Am I right in thinking that the Tory party has the largest youth membership of the three parties?
91. Hard to tell. Traditionally the Young Conservatives were by far the largest “youth wing”- though I think that their age limit is 35- someone can confirm this. In the 1950’s they were supposed to have a million members, IIRC.
There are now several “youth wings” - but the FCS (Federation of Conservative Students) was abandonned in the 1980’s and student organisation never really recovered. So now their are several “youth wings” of the Tories and I think their membership overlaps- so it is hard to tell what membership the Tories have. Support amongst students however is at a new low, according to the latest oppinion polls. Several commentators, not least Byron Criddle, have remarked that the Tories are literally dieing- and these tactics, which reduce the demands on the membership would fit in with that- The Tories are spending, because they need to make up for the growing weakness of their membership.
92. oops- a their, instead of a there :-/
92 - I think you are a bit out of date. I am sure I heard that they centralised their youth section of the party, which is now called Conservative Future (the youth wing - this all sounds rather Nazi! - of the Tory party) is the largest youth movement in Britain, probably in Europe, and has rapidly increased over the last few years.
92. The age limit for CF is 30 and it is currently the largest political youth organisation in europe.
95 - 30, “Youth” ???
I am 29 Mr Tabman. 30 is extremely youthful…
Seeing as most of the party is made up of 60-90 year olds then 30 is youthful I would have thought. That awful holiday company is club 18-30 after all.
Sophia, naturally different criteria apply to men and women
Youth Club 18-30?
youth Listen: [ yth ]
n. pl. youths [ yths, yz ]
a. The condition or quality of being young. b. An early period of development or existence: a nation in its youth.
The time of life between childhood and maturity.
a. A young person, especially a young male in late adolescence. b. (used with a sing. or pl. verb) Young people considered as a group.
98. Don’t fancy a club 60-90 break to Transylvania to dig up Michael Howard’s relatives though…
Are we not splitting hairs with this youth argument. It has a lot of members.
102 “It has a lot of members” - that’s one way of putting it
103 How would you put it?
Just picked up on the “Bearwood list” thread. Sorry if you’ve covered this. The Bearwood list is not about winning seats. As you have rightly said they are seats way down the winnibility list. BUT they are seats where the Tories are second and have been second since 1997 and in some cases were Tory seats before 1997. The Bearwood strategy is a face saving exercise to try and prevent current second place seats falling into third and fourth places a la Leicester South, Brent East, Hartlepool, Birmingham. It would not be a good use of party funds to carry out this exercise as individual and corporate donors have rightly given their money in order to win seats but there is no harm in Ashcroft doing what he likeswith his own money and giving directly to Tory constintuency associations which are potentially going to be embarrased this time round. The tactic is is to try and split the anti Labour vote. The outcome is that Bearwood is probably ensuring a Labour victory but with Tories in second place which for Tories is preferable and less embarrasing to a non-Labour win with the Tories in third place.
105 - Bruce, very interesting post. Is this stated from a position of knowledge or a theory (a plausible one)?
Tabman,
Would love to claim this as my own well thought out theory, however,I thought it was a generally known tactic. My contacts in one of the Constituency Associations that is receiving the money from Ashcroft seem to know the thinking behind it.
If you look at the list of ‘Bearwood seats’ (Taunton, Gillingham, Medway, Romsey, Orpington, Telford, Ribble South, Northampton South, Harwich, Wellingbourgh, Corby, North Norfolk, Edinbourgh South West, Great Yarmouth etc). Almost none fit in with the analysis at 105. Its easy enough to get a list by looking at the electoral commision website. Most are either Tory held marginals with Lib Dems threatening or Labour/Lib Dem seats where the Tories are a clear second. Obviously this doesn’t cover donatins received in the current quarter but it makes sense to give the money first to the most marginal seats.
Can add to above list - H&F, Preseli Pembs, Enfield North, Portsmouth North, Calder Valley, Putney, Peterbourgh, Mid-Dorset & Poole, Eastleigh and South Thanet. Bedford does appear to be a rather odd exception.
Re. 105 Norwich South would fit into that group and the campaign has been half decent certainly stopped the LD’s coming close to winning it wonder if Ashcroft is involved? is there a full list anywhere?
Will - The only way to get a list is to go to the Electoral Commision website. You can then search the list of Conservative donors and filter it so it only shows donations from Bearwood. Don’t think that Norwich South was on it but as I say the list is only complete up untill 31/12/04.
http://www.electoralcommission.gov.uk/regulatory-issues/regdpoliticalparties.cfm?ec=%7Bts%20%272005%2D03%2D30%2018%3A28%3A20%27%7D
Re above.
91. Not around here, I got the impression (and I am not being offensive) that the Tories were a dying breed, the canvassers (the ones I saw any how) were all how can I say this well ……….old, this seat Blackpool South, pretty and much the whole of the Fylde was pretty safe Tory territory prior to 97, but it appears that they are slowly dying away.
Mind you I have found that the interest in politics and the parties has slowly died, I find many people are woefully misinformed it’s a shame but I suppose that’s why they resort to sound bites.
I know what this year will be like, but the last election around here was very quiet, I used to see loads of posters in peoples windows none of that last time around
Even wierder than Bedford: Telford is on the list!
Ref. 110 Norwich South & Bearwood
No, Will, Norwich South isn’t being funded by Lord Ashcroft (or indeed any big business). However they do have a very talented local campaigning team in place, including a very good PPC in Antony Little. The Norwich South Tory Campaign will stop the LibDems coming second, and they’ve done it without Ashcroft. Money doesn’t always equal success but a decent PPC and talented campaigning will.
Further to what I’ve said above, the average age of party political members (of whetever hue) is coming down as is the average age of political activism. The reason that parties pay for delivery is to free up their limited “legs” to canvass.
In order to gain ashcroft funding marginal seats had to prepare a business and spending plan - this i suspect was a major requirement. Mr Ashcroft would not want to see his money being peed down a drain.
consequentially not every marginal will have it. Apparently only around 60 have it. These ones would tend to be the better, more aware and probably better funded ones anyway.
The CDs in Bedford were probably sent from Central Office. In my seat we received them too but chose not to distribute them. Central Office come up with a lot of crap schemes - many unworkable because the sheer event involved is unfeasible or the level of knowledge required does not exist. I give the example of finding the email addresses of constituents whilst canvassing - it aint gonna happen, canvassing takes enough time anyway and who wants emails from the tory party?
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