Labour up 14% in Scotland
March 31st, 2005
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Big boost for Blair north of border
Huge changes in public opinion in Scotland in just 17 days are recorded in a Scottish Opinion Poll in today’s Daily Record. The figures are with changes on the last SOP reported here just over two weeks ago are:- LAB 52 (+14): CON 16 (+1): LD 12 (-11): SNP 17 (+1).
In that last poll in mid-March SOP had the Lib Dems up a massive 12% and Labour down 10% so today’s figures are a bit of a reversal.
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These new figures have Labour at 9% higher than the party achieved north of the border in 2001 and would indicate even more gains for Tony Blair’s party on May 5th.
We are a little sceptical of polls showing such massive swings in opinion.
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A disaster for Labour! They seem to be piling up votes in Scotland but not anywhere else!
The implication, Printz, is that they’d be better off not doin well in Scotland. An interesting, if perhaps minutely biased take on the poll.
As for the poll, sounds pretty wrong to me!
Yes that swing from Lib to Lab seems a bit extreme!
That blows my theory that the last one transposed the SNP and LD scores, I think. Did we ever get any details of SOP’s methodology?
Printz, I’m not sure of the electorate figures but Scotland is roughly 10% of the UKs 56 million people. Therefore a 10% increase in Labour’s vote in Scotland would only equate to a 1% decrease in the rest of the UK.
Looks like my right toenail [………….MODERATED - MS]…
6, Well Mr. Ridley …coctoct ??? had a long lunch ?
72/6.59 = 10.9% of seats
59/6.46 = 9.1% of seats
So, yes about 10%. Oh, and the population is expected to pass 60 million this yr. Was 59.8 ish at the beginning of 2005…
I posted this on a previous thread where it got lost in a discussion about education… let’s try again
It’s all about the Watford Gap. North of it, Labour is on course to repeat its 2001 performance. South of it, the Tories are well ahead. I leave it to others to crunch the numbers…
Is it possible to disaggregate the BES regionally, I wonder? (The only poll whose sample size might be large enough to stand such treatment, methinks.)
One word sums up that poll - Bollox
Re. 9 The latest YouGov poll again showed a Tory lead in London the figures are small but it is a prominent pattern now.
Does anyone really believe Labour are stronger now than in 2001? I think that we shall see this poll as a rogue one.
Looking back at all 7 polls in April 2001 the average was Lab 50.25%, Tory 30.5%, Lib Dem 13.5%. The average of this March’s 7 polls is Lab 39%(-11.25), Tory 32.5%(+2.0), Lib Dem 20.25%(+6.75). If we get anything like the same movement during this campaign that we got in 2001 (Lab down 8.25, Tory up 2.25, and Lib Dem up 5.5)we are heading for NOC at Westminster. These figures also cast doubt on yesterdays contention on this site that ‘nothing changes during the campaign’.
I received my first piece of election literature today. It was a glossy A4 from the “new” Labour MP for my area (effect of Scottish boundary changes). It was targetted at the areas coming into his old constituency. Interestingly, Gordon Brown gets a mention but Tony Blair doesn’t !
Clive although I do think campaigning has an impact alot of the change from April to the G.E. in 2001 was overstatement of Labour in the polls rather than a fundamental shift between April 2001 and the G.E in public opinion.
8 - have an A-Star for your efforts
This poll? I thought April fools day was tomorrow.
14 Will do you think that the overstatement of Labour in the polls in 2001 has gone away or is it still there?
Clive I think thats the big question, I would guess that the overstatement of Labour falls as the Labour share in the polls decreases, so that overstatement of 8% is unlikely but some overstatement is likely. I also think it depends on how close the contest is perceived as being a large part of the overstatement in 2001 was caused by Labour supporters staying at home in safe seats.
6: Cllr Lindley - any news on Vote2005? we need our fix!
If you are a fan of Raw Turkey, here is a report from UK Polling Report - the blog (I should emphasise that it is the opinion poll which is poultry-shaped, not Anthony’s wonderful blog): I risk the wrath of Stuart Dickson to report a new Scottish Opi…
FWIW, our canvassing in Broxtowe has shown a swing to Labour (compared with the same peope 4 years ago) since 2001 for the third day running, each in different wards and types of area (though all three were predominantly C1/C2/D). All small swings and small samples, but definitely better than at any previous stage this year. Intention to vote also sharply up.
“Scottish Opinion” (sic) are not members of the industry-standard British Polling Council. The Daily Record is the in-house bog roll of the less gifted members of the Scottish Labour Establishment.
Enough said.
http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/
Nick wrote:
FWIW, our canvassing in Broxtowe has shown a swing to Labour (compared with the same peope 4 years ago) since 2001 for the third day running, each in different wards and types of area (though all three were predominantly C1/C2/D). All small swings and small samples, but definitely better than at any previous stage this year. Intention to vote also sharply up.
Reply:
I think you have this election in the bag. Unless of course people say anything to get rid of doorstep canvassers!
21 - Are you comparing your polling results to your polling results in 2001? Or to the election result in 2001?
21- Could someone explain me what does canvassing consist in? I’m foreign and I think I’ve understood what it is, but I would like to be sure.
It seems (from posters on this site) that all parties are having great results from canvassing. and obviously it is impossible (except this is an election without uniformal swings).
25 - Andrea - if you are near South London, you can come out with Bullseye (Lib Dem PPC Vauxhall) and expereince the full range of canvassing, from multi million £ mansions to council estate crack houses (now reduced from 80 to <5 under the Lib Dem run Town Hall .. and their implementation of an effective anti-crime policy based on action not nebulous NuLab blather)
You can contact him at http://www.libdems.org.uk/party/people/person.html?id=836&navPage=inyourarea.html
Andrea - canvassing consists of asking voters how they intend to vote. It is not supposed to be a method of persuading people but of finding out who your supporters are in order to ensure they get out to vote for you on polling day (or via a postal vote).
There is a canvass card marked with the party names that you tick against when you contact them (either by knocking on doors or ringing them up).
Nick wrote:
(though all three were predominantly C1/C2/D)
The NRS social grade system is soooo 1970. If people want to say lower middle class/working class they should just say it.
The ABC1 system is based on occupation of the household reference person. Changes in occupations and households structures make it an increasingly difficult system to sustain (not saying class structure has disappeared just that the ABC1 system no longer captures it)
For example
A miner’s wife (C2) gets divorced and becomes an outbound telesales person (C1); then moves in with a Tesco fresh produce manager (B), it doesn’t work - she moves out and signs on (E); then shacks up with a toyboy who has just graduated and is doing his accountancy exams (A); again it doesn’t work - she gets it back together with her first husband who is now working in a warehouse (D), he retires (still a D); then he dies with no occupational pension (E); she finally finds some solace with retired university lecturer (sociology as you ask) still drawing his pension (A) - her journey through the NRS system is complete without ever chaning her class
Re 21 - Nick, do you not come across those people who say that cannot bear to vote for Blair again?
Andrea
21- Could someone explain me what does canvassing consist in? I’m foreign and I think I’ve understood what it is, but I would like to be sure.
It seems (from posters on this site) that all parties are having great results from canvassing. and obviously it is impossible (except this is an election without uniformal swings).
Reply:
OK suppose I was canvassing.
First, dressed like a undertaker, with the blackest suit you ever saw, stiff with starch, I’d knock purposefully on a front door in a sink estate, armed with my clipboard, just as the owner has just sat down to watch Coronation Street.
The door swings open and I jam my foot in the gap.
“I want to know you’ll be voting for me!” I say, with a smug smile, turning my nose up at the purple wallpaper, paisley carpets and the smell of urine.
“Oh I’m voting for the other party” she says.
“I repeat,” I say, my voice pompous and intimidating. “Who are you voting for?”
The woman looks back to the living room and hears Katy in Corrie is being arrested.
“You’ll have my vote!” she says. “Must go!”
She slams the door on my foot.
“So I’ll put you down as a definate then!”
I then rush down the path and yell: “I’ve got another sucker to vote for me!”
At the end of the day I count up all the promised votes and sleep tight knowing my seat is safe!
26-27. Thanks. It’s what I suspected it was. Another question about canvassing: does the canvassers (are the people who do it called in this way?) tell the potential voters his party affiliation?
and does “in order to ensure they get out to vote for you on polling day” mean that parties supporters could go to someone’s house and take him to the polling station?
To Vote Respect
George Galloway will be on Question Time tonight. I’ll be watching my hero with great interest!
25 - Oh, Andrea, where do we begin in discussing the fine art of canvassing? At its simplest, it is a form of identification and exclusion of different types of voters in order to identify a preferred type. In Britain the local councils (who are responsible for the conduct of elections) allow each candidate a copy of the official Electoral Roll. This shows the name and address (and a Polling Number) for each voter in the polling district. The candidates (or, more accurately, their parties) go to each address, knock on the door, try to speak to the voter, and try to find out from them who they will be supporting at the election. “Good evening, my name is Augustus Carp, may I rely on your support at the election next Thursday?” or something like that. Every canvasser believes that he/she has the perfect question which will elicit the Truth, whilst not offending the voter.
The voter replies by saying something like “Yes, I wil be there” or “I voted for you last time!” or something equally vague. Note that the voter has NOT said that they will vote for Augustus Carp (even though it is obvious that he is by far the best candidate.)
The Canvasser then records the voter’s intention: Usually as Definite, Probable, Soft Labour/Tory/LibDem, Definite Labour/Tory/LibDem, Undecided, and Anti (i.e. Will Not Say). These categories, when added together, are usually slightly less than the number of people who are Out, and who therefore still need to be contacted.
Based on these canvass returns, the parties will be able to determine the level of support, and thus decide how much effort to devote to the campaign. They can, for example, decide to deliver specific targetted letters and leaflets, either to bolster their own support or to “squeeze” the third party.
Finally, on Polling Day itself, the parties collect the polling numbers of voters as they leave the polling station. They can then cross off the numbers on their marked up canvass sheets to see if their own supporters are voting - if they are not, then they go round and knock on the doors to offer lifts, provide baby sitters etc and do whatever else is necessary to “get the vote out”. (This process is, in theory, much easier with computers, but it is not!)
This is a simple guide - please forgive me if it is a little too basic. Obviously, the problems with this system are vast - it is difficult to contact all voters, the voters do not give coherent answers (but are easily offended if they are pestered) all canvassers are notoriously optimistic and sometimes (oh, how shocking!) voters will say anything to get rid of the anorak with a party rosette who has interrupted the football on TV.
Then, on Polling Day, the power-crazy officials who are allowed to run the Polling Stations get very officious and do not let people collect the numbers, some voters refuse to give their numbers as a matter of principle, and the rest forget to bring the card with the number on it! So, arguably, the system does not work very well, but…it is the only system we have, the voters expect to see it in action, and it is a Great British Tradition.
33 - Some voters have very large dogs, and it’s rather a nerve-racking experience getting close enough to read the number from their card.
Re 33: Finally, on Polling Day itself, the parties collect the polling numbers of voters as they leave the polling station. They can then cross off the numbers on their marked up canvass sheets to see if their own supporters are voting - if they are not, then they go round and knock on the doors to offer lifts, provide baby sitters etc and do whatever else is necessary to “get the vote out”. (This process is, in theory, much easier with computers, but it is not!)
Complete waste of time organising volunteers to sit and take numbers and for people to collect and input them on to a computer only to find that you eliminate a just a fifth of people by 2.00pm. Better to save that time and just knock on all doors - less time is wasted that way.
31 -Andrea -Yes you should start by introducing yourself as canvassing for the LibDems ..or other contenders whoever they may be. It’s good manners, it is an indicator of your good faith because you are wearing a party rosette or sticker (so LOL can open door with confidence that she is not going to be mugged)and also it cuts to the chase. As Tabman says, canvassing is not so much about converting people, it is identifying who your people are, and perhaps more of interest to this site, gives a developing statistical picture of the liklihood of the final result.
On the other hand, many voters appreciate, and indeed expect, a visit from a political party seeking their vote. Often this provides them a platform for a 2 minute expostion on whatever they see as the main issue in the election - from rats on the estate to G Brown’s neo-endogenous monetary policy.
On polling day - yes you do work to get them to the polling station. In urban areas, where polling stations are very near most people, all you do is knock on peoples doors and remind them. This is accompanied by a plethora of leaflets in the last 24hrs and early hours of polling day. In rural areas, party supporters go round with cars and take voters to the polls.
Parties contesting an election will have workers at each polling station taking the details of voters as they come in. These are cross checked with supporters’ lists back at Party HQ - which then gives a list of those promised to you who are still to vote .. and therefore need to be “knocked up” in person or called by phone.
33 - one thing which, presumably, is much easier with computers is finding voters’ phone numbers. I remember sitting about 12 years ago with a paper copy of the register and a phone book doing the necessary by hand!
36 - I believe this is known as the “Reading System” after its first use in Reading in the 1940s.
33- Thanks very much. it’s a fascinating system.
I think parts of it would be illegal in my country (Italy).
38 - You learn something new every day! Which party used it first?
40 - My copy of “How to win elections” (from which I gleaned this nugget) is on its way back from my Mother in Law’s, whence it was left, but will not be here until tomorrow, whereupon I enlighten you. I *think* it was the ‘Tories, and I think it was a by-election
The results of the Parish Council(Nuthall) have just been announced,4 conservatives against 4 independents - it’s the type of ward where Labour & Lib Dems have no chance - in a 21.4 % turnout the Tories took all four seats - the lowest Conservative polled 367 votes against 281 votes of the highest Independent. A good result for the Tories .
We really need an opinion poll out putting the Tories in the lead.
Not that I’m a Tory, but I’d love to see Tony Blair’s face as he calls an election, knowing he’s behind in the polls!
Tabman, ein sehr interessante Komment at 36 - it’s known as the Reading System in the OldLab partei. Perhaps you hav been rumbled - please turn off your recording apparatus NOW
I believe it was called the Reading System because it was first invented and used there by the late Ian Mikardo for the Labour Party. It was a marginal seat, and he won it using this method, which gave it lots of credibility. The sheets of “promises” are still called “Reading Sheets” by some of the more Old Labour types.
I will be bringing any breaking election news from BBC Question Time.
45 - Ah, the Mikardo.
“I’ve got a little list
At the polls they’ve all been missed…”
45 - presumably he had a Little List?
44 - Ausgezeichnet! Wir konnen schrechlich Deutsch schreiben um die Anderen zu storen! Viel spass fur Uns!
46 - GG is laying into Mrs Hodge …
BREAKING NEWS FROM BBC QUESTION TIME
Party spokesmen from Conservative, Liberal Democrats and Respect, back Jamie Oliver’s school dinners initiative, thus preventing a Labour Party opinion poll “Jamie Jump.”
Ian Mikardo’s other great claim to fame was that he was the unofficial Bookmaker to the House of Commons - at a time when, I believe, such activities were illegal(?? not sure about that!??) I met him once in Bow during a local government by election in the late 1970’s, and asked him a perfectly civil question about who he would bet on in that particular contest. He muttered something about “any fool knows that you never bet in a two horse race” and then stomped off into the night.
36 -41. The Reading system was a Labour party system developed by Ian Mikado in (I think) the 1945 GE for the eponymous constituency (where I think he was Labour candidate). Basically it involved the cutting edge technology of the time - multi-part Carbonless paper sets. So you wrote out your list of supporters the night before on these 4 part sets. As numbers from the polling stations came in, you crossed your supporters off using a ruler and biro. At some stage you tore off the top sheets and gave them to your “Knockers up” to chase up those not crossed off/not voted . Meanwhile the Committee Room team kept on crossing off on the remaining sheets and reissuing. The Liberals had the same system, but called Shuttleworths, after the original printer who first produced them.
These days the crossing off is done on the computer, which spews out bespoke filtered lists appropriate to the hour - supporters with telephone numbers being one. No doubt NuLab are relieved at this development because it means they are no longer tainted with a relic of Ian Mikado.
There are many tales and legends about knock up pads. One of the best was the story about a Liberal activist who infiltartede a Tory .. er conservative… Committee Room and isued the LOLs doing the crossing off with 6B pencils. These, being soft leads, would not score through the successive shheets, so that it was impossibel to see who had or had not voted on later knock up sheets - thus effectively b*ggering the whoel poll day operation. Don’t knwo if thsi is true, but it wa told me by alongstandign Liberal Agent and it is a good story.
[48] Tabman, are you testing the spam trap? The mental image is sickening…
Lembit is workign up to the leadership, exercising his serious side
What did I tell you the other night? GG has just called Kamikaze “Comrade Flight” on Newsnight and invited him to send an application form in to Respect
You appear to have missed the breaking news that the Pope has been administered the last rites. I have no idea what this means as regards the election, Tony being almost RC
52 - laying? Good betting term AFAIK!
51 - LOLs?
57 - Little Old Ladies (not Laughing Out Loud or Loyal Orange Lodge!)
“Little Old Ladies”, methinks.
or, at least for now, Lembit Opik Liberals.
LOLs - indeed, Little Old Ladies who inhabit committee rooms in this context. Anyway its LOLs with an s rather then LOL Laughing out loud…) but sorry for confusion
PS sorry for bad spelling at end of last but one post - diverted by QT …. ohmigod - GG has just threatened them all with libel. Lets hope the Beeb is made of sterner stuff than the Far Side
55 - it means Andy that according to IA last night (IIRC) that there is probably not going to be a general election this year, looking at precedent going back to the death of Pius Xi in 1939.
Any intersting by election tonight guys?
Can somone tell me what Mr. Howard is going on a council estate in Hoxton with Lord Ollerenshaw is Hackney south a tory target?
63 - there’s been a by-election in Vino’s workplace tea-making circle; the Lib Dem candidate came last - he advocated a relaxed policy on Lapsang Souchong consumption and was thought dangerously pro-illicit substances.
Scarpia [62] - you can investigate further here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_popes#From_1750
65 IA: Hmm - could be more to this - Benedict XV dcd. 1922, GE 1923, Pius X, dcd. 1914 .. election due 1915?? but postponed to 1919 … we had moved on to 5 year elections in the UK by then hadn’t we?
63 - what Mr Howard etc were doing on a Hackney Council estate tonight may well be a subject best left to CCTV cameras and the local community policing team.
63, 66 - “And remember, don’t have nightmares …”
The Archbishop of Canterbury said that Michael Howards campaign was racist and Liam Fox said that was because he was supporting Labour. Obviously it was all said in slightly more diplomatic language but this was the way Kirsty in her down to earth Scottish way extrapolated from her interwiew with both of them. I had a distinctly deja vous feeling. Back to the good old days of church V Maggie.
63 - see 42
Actually Kirsty asked him (the Archbishop) if she thought Michael Howard was being a racist(!). Long pause……if he is using the fear of immigration and asylum….then yes. Rather less equivocal than I thought. So God has just joined Tony’s campaign. Everbody helps…!helps……..
Somehow, I don’t think the Tories were expecting Rasputin’s endorsement.
That’s how biblical folk ought to look. None of your clean shaven baldies
And of course Prince Charles called Nicolas Witchall a twat. It’s not often I agree with the Prince….
A stopped clock is right twice a day.
So it’s Catholic vs Protestant with Tories backed by the Catholics?
73 - It was very funny watching Nicholas Witchell all day trying to report on himself
Gorgeous George was in excellent form on QT tonight won the clapometer vote hands down (note to GG’s lawyer, that’ nothing to do with STDiseases :-)) with IngSoc rep Ms Hodge the wooden spoonist. Expect to see this reflected in the polls soon (at least in Grimsby)
74 - Is that Roger or the Prince who’s the clock, Sean?
75 - will TOoy finally “come out” then?
Vino at 42- Nick appears to have missed the result of the Nuthalll By-Election.
Comments Nick?
Labour and the Lib dems have stood down in Nuthall since 2002 to allow the independents to defeat the Tories, backfired now tho.
Does this demonstrate the “tactical unwind” that the Tories ( sorry CONSERVATIVES)need in this sort of Con/Lab marginal - Ie are peeeeple less likely to vote against the Tory regardless.
FWIW it was a high risk strategy for the Tories to put up thier County Council candidate for this by-election, he and they would have looked daft if he had lost, both would have had to think again b4 may 5th
Further to 76 - my lawyer advises me I should apologise to Ms Hodge for describing her as the Ing Soc rep - she was of course the IngSoc delegate.
Alex at 73. Wasn’t it! I thought he was being his normal obsequious self at first but then realized it was probably a sackcloth and ashes event that the BBC forced on him so they wouldn’t lose their royal exclusives.
.
The Tories have just announced that Jamie Oliver has accepted an invitation from Michael Howard to be their candidate in Arundel !!
errr Jack 82 remember that it is now April fools day!
Jack W [82] - you’re four minutes early!
82 - Jack, your watch is four minutes fast….
76 Thomthumb
I so hope George will win in Betnal Green.
He certainly knows how to play the audience.
I think if Respect could win just one seat and over ten percent in a dozen seats, they could form the embryo of a credible New Old Labour, if you see what I mean.
82 , Sorry that post was embargoed until 00.01 AM . Oh the site clock is slow , not me !
84 . My wife says the same !
YouGuv Poll tomorrow’s Sum
Conservative 36 +2
Labour 33 -2
Liberals 23 +1
Awaiting more info
cynic - 79 - to my way of thinking the result here has proven that the Conservative voter will now turn back out to vote for the party - voters (myself included)did give the 2002 Tory dominated Parish Council a terrible kicking but as tonights results have proven the Tories have recovered well.I’m still voting for Nick but the result may be much closer than I first thought.
88…..and so good night Printz , good night Chris , good night Innocent Abroad , good night Augustus , good night John Boy….fade to black…..
89 - is that serious Printz?
Yep I’m just waiting for more info from my source.
More details on the YouGuv poll coming up
TORIES TAKE A 3 POINT LEAD
Here are full details:
yougovaprilfools.co.uk
I suspected as much!
Jack W. The idea is right for a big name fight on the night, Ollie v Flight. (sorry got a bit poetic there - don’t know what came over me.
You can see it now:
“IIINNNN The Red Corner - representing REEESPPPECCT, the former heavyweight CHAMpion of Arundel, one time holder of the tiTLE DEPYOUTEEE chairman of the TOR(sorry,sorry)CONNNservative party…..HOWARD FLIIIGGGHHHHHTTTTTTT.
IIIIINNNNNNN the blue corner, fighting below his weight (and his budget of 50p - a service that was NEVER going to be cut by the Tor(sorry, sorry) Conservative Party, and I’ll sack AAAAAANNNNYYYone who says that we would secretly make all kids eat turkey twizzlers) JAYMEEEEEE OLIVERRRRRRRRRRR.” What a battle it would be
42 and 79: I don’t think I feel strongly about the Nuthall parish by-elections, honestly - I was told the turnout was 14%, but even at 22% it’s not terribly exciting. The history is that the local Tories had been in power forever in the ward, and were swept out by a slate of independents, who then fell to fighting among themselves. Eventually four resigned, and a different (pro-Veritas) group of independents challenged the Tories in a two-horse race, but lost as noted above. I think the position is basically that the non-Tory voters in Nuthall felt the independent group’s quarrels had reduced their credibility (it’s hard to disagree), so they stayed at home.
The Yougov poll, now, would be another matter! But I note Printz posted it two minutes into April 1…
Graham. Taliking about Arundel. No one turns a phrase like the Guardian’s leader writer on form. Talking about Michael Howard……
“It did not look masterful to fire that second barrel into the prostrate career of his hapless colleague: it looked rattled”
Here’s an interesting site http://www.onebigvote.co.uk
81 - Roger. I didn’t think the BBC did royal exclusives. wasn’t Jenny Bond famous for never having a single worthwhile Source within the royal household - her approach to ascertaining royal opinion being to get into character and ‘empathise’ with them?
Jenny Bond! How we miss her nightly genuflections while trying to get low enough to see things from the Corgis point of view.
Clive wrote:
Does anyone really believe Labour are stronger now than in 2001? I think that we shall see this poll as a rogue one.
Looking back at all 7 polls in April 2001 the average was Lab 50.25%, Tory 30.5%, Lib Dem 13.5%. The average of this March’s 7 polls is Lab 39%(-11.25), Tory 32.5%(+2.0), Lib Dem 20.25%(+6.75). If we get anything like the same movement during this campaign that we got in 2001 (Lab down 8.25, Tory up 2.25, and Lib Dem up 5.5)we are heading for NOC at Westminster. These figures also cast doubt on yesterdays contention on this site that ‘nothing changes during the campaign’.
Reply:
Who would have thought a few years ago when IDS was Tory leader, they would now be poised to (possibly) destroy the Labour majority?
I think this is a rogue poll, but it is very possible that Labour could increase its vote in Scotland while it decreases elsewhere. For one, I think voters might be getting a little fed up with the hypocrisy of the LibDems in Scotland. They can not go on forever cosing up to Labour in Edinburgh while aparently condemning them at Westminster. A leaked internal memo from Robert Brown MSP revealed they apparently believe that voters are too stupid to notice such hypocrisy.
Support for the SNP also appears to have declined in recent elections so it is indeed possible that Labour could increase its vote in Scotland. Personally, I think we will see a largely status-quo result there with the Tories winning Dumfries and Galloway and perhaps one or two seats from the Nats. If Robert Brown MSP is right then the LibDems have a good chance in a few seats as well.
Charles said ” I hate that man. He’s really awful. He really is”
The Royal spokesman said it wasn’t personal.
I can hardly type I’m laughing so much!
just a quick question which will be of help to my majority punting -How many seats are there (including Northern Ireland)?
105 - 646 seats (628 GB, 18 NI).
many thanks book value
printz at 43 - much as I’d love to see tony squirm, no poll is going to show the tories with a big enough lead in the vote to actually win, we all know that a slender tory lead in votes still means a massive majority in labour seats. not even on april fools day
Maybe Paul, but don’t forget the 92 election, when on the eve of the election both parties were neck and neck, or with Labour ahead.
response to Harry 99
website OneBigVote. The promoters are “Internet Market Research (sic) Services”. Note the use of the words “Prospect Targeting” in the name of the Holding Company, sounds like Sales not Market Research to me, ie SUGGING.
A comment from waaaaaaaaay at the top of the page:
It’s all about the Watford Gap. North of it, Labour is on course to repeat its 2001 performance. South of it, the Tories are well ahead. I leave it to others to crunch the numbers…
Is what I’ve noticed recently as well. I think there could be a few gains against the general trend.
Re 99 - they want your DOB and postcode - it’s an obvious marketing scam - so I’m staying well clear of it !
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