Balance of Money Predictions - April 30
April 30th, 2005
The spread markets are based on all-UK figures while the opinion polls report their figures on a GB basis excluding Northern Ireland and the latter are roughly 0.97 of the former. So a Labour spread of 37-37.5% equates roughly to 38.1%-38.6% when comparing with an opinion poll.
The regular BALANCE OF MONEY predictions are based on how spread betting gamblers are investing their money on all the main UK markets from Spreadfair, IG Index, and Sporting Index.
A full round-up of all General Election Betting is available here
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Edinburgh blogger Chris Applegate (the one that brought you those flash videos recently) of qwghlm.co.uk blog has started an…
Election Majority Sweepstake
I bet on a Labour Majority of 91. No fancy footwork folks, I just nicked it from this exc…
Looking at the seat markets LDs seem to be narrow favourites in most of their marginals - with either of the other 2 parties. F and C looks very interesting. All the reports I hear are good… Tories are pretty much out of it and just a few more days to squeeze that vote.
Vote-2005 is down - Post at http://ukdebate.conforums3.com for now
Why are people still voting New Labour! Grrr! I would say Lab Majority of around 68.
Vote-2005 is down - Post at http://ukdebate.conforums3.com for now
because Vote Respect - Labour have done more good things than bad, very few are obsessed about the war, the Tories are hopeless and nobody over the age of 30 sees kennedy as a potential PM.
3 Vote Respect perhaps because they want to? have you never considered that, perhaps more people agreed with Iraq than disagreed, you never know,
re 3.
Vote-2005 is dead. Long live Vote2005!
New Vote 2005 Forum
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again.
The polls overstate Labour - Labour may win the popular vote but could easily finish 2% behind.
Max Lab maj 40.
People vote Labour because they want to, just the same as people vote for any other party. I am anti-war in Iraq too but don’t base my vote on that issue because I feel Labour have done more good than harm for the country and for my partner and I personally.
Ave it 05 you are on record on the other side as saying the tories were going to win big,
Labour majority of about 100. Would prefer it to be a lot lower or a hung parliament but labour will be putting a lot of effort into marginal seats, so probably a lot of small labour majorities this time around.
I see that Mark Young, an Independent is now pegged to come third in the Vale of Clwyd seat by Jack Brown bookmakers at 33/1. See http://www.dyffrynt.co.uk/mark/en/pr300405.htm for details. Mark is claiming that in the betting at least, they are ahead of Plaid and the Lib Dems, so its looking like minor parties and independents may be making ground as a result of the labour and conservative fracas of late.
10, Tend to agree, never thought it would be any other way my bet of Labour between 80 and 100 has always seemed safe throughout the campaign
Don’t quite understand how some people have told of taking profits in running on turnout bets - everything I’ve seen shows the predicted turnout falling from around 62% to 60%. Still seems low to me - buying on the spreads at 61/61.5% looks very low risk, especially with the large increase in postal voting.
On the basis of the current polls, the 6/5 that sporting odds are doing offering on 60-75 Lib Dem seats looks a great value bet.
If you open an account and use the free £25 bet that they offer you are laughing.
If I have to get an ID card, I’ll be there in the queue to get one, I’ll be there proving my identity and showing my card, for the rest of my life, having to think to myself, I voted for this.
If I have to get an ID card, I’ll be there in the queue to get one, I’ll be there proving my identity and showing my card, for the rest of my life, having to think to myself, I voted for this.
9 - just giving the labour supporters here a bit of a boost!
a 2% con lead in poll plus tactical unwind will make it very close between con and lab
#15 “If I have to get an ID card, I’ll be there in the queue to get one”
But would you be willing to pay for one of these planned “compulsory” ID cards? They won’t be free you know! We the tax payer will be paying for (one of a number) this ID card system, then we the tax payer will have to pay for an actual card!
‘have you never considered that, perhaps more people agreed with Iraq than disagreed, you never know.’
To the above - Are you drinking what they’re drinking?
New Labour LIED about Iraq. This cost us 8 billion pounds
New Labour LIED about fees. Another example of unprogressive taxation
New Labour LIED about privatisation. ‘Our air is not for sale.’
Britain spends HALF the Western European average on pensions.
Britain has the POOREST pensioners in Western Europe.
Britain’s cold-related deathrate for pensioners than SIBERIA.
New Labour REFUSES to tax the rich.
New Labour REFUSES to renationalise the railways.
New Labour REFUSES link pensions with earnings.
New Labour REFUSES to pay fire fighters a decent wage.
New Labour REFUSES to repeal draconian anti-Trade Union laws.
If you value that, then by all means vote for it, but I don’t know how you sleep at night.
A vote for George Galloway is exactly that: a vote for George Galloway. No democrat he.
19 - Too negative, nasty, and you use the word ‘lied’ far too often.
I’m afraid your poll ratings are about to plummet.
‘A vote for George Galloway is exactly that: a vote for George Galloway.’ That’s usually how it works.
GG has supported demoacracy in several countries around the world, and Respect is one of them most democratic parties going.
Respect is alligned with people who aren’t exactly in favour of ‘democracy’ for gays are they?
“New Labour LIED about Iraq. This cost us 8 billion pounds”
Interesting combination of morality and economics. Quite populist
“New Labour LIED about fees. Another example of unprogressive taxation”
I would have thought the rich paying to go to university and the poorest paying nothing as an example of progressive taxation. I wonder if you know the specifics of the policy.
“New Labour LIED about privatisation. ‘Our air is not for sale.’”
I can’t bring myself to say anything other than “who cares?”. I certainly don’t care. It just seems like state ownership for its own sake.
“Britain spends HALF the Western European average on pensions.”
“Britain has the POOREST pensioners in Western Europe.”
“Britain’s cold-related deathrate for pensioners than SIBERIA.”
“New Labour REFUSES to tax the rich.”
Fair points. I wish they’d increase taxes to pay for these things but the public doesn’t want to and we live in a democracy. Maybe they could spend some of the money they’ve saved by making well-off students pay a tiny proportion of their tuition cost back on it…oh wait, you wouldn’t like that
“New Labour REFUSES to renationalise the railways.”
Again. Nationalisation for its own sake.
“New Labour REFUSES link pensions with earnings.”
“New Labour REFUSES to pay fire fighters a decent wage.”
Both complex issues. Certainly both are more complex than simply “give everyone a sh*t-load of money”. The firefighers get a decent wage - the government simply wanted to reform the service to make firefighters full time instead of pandering to the idea that if firefighters have to work more than a few days a week, they would be too tired to do the job. Tell that to an olympic runner who trains everyday.
“New Labour REFUSES to repeal draconian anti-Trade Union laws.”
The same laws that stop firefighters holding the government to ransom over moderate reforms in the public interest.
Poll: Labour Fail in Scotland
http://scottish-independence.blogspot.com/2005/04/labour-fail-in-scotland.html
Scottish Opinion/Sunday Herald
Westminster Voting Intention
Scotland
1. Labour 40% (-4%)
2. SNP 21% (+1%)
3. Lib Dems 17% (+1%)
4. Con 16% (no change)
What an excellent day. Chelsea win the league and Galloway is derailed in BG and Bow. According to the Sunday Times his wife is planning to divorce him for supposed unfaithfulness. Wonder how this will go down with his prospective muslim constituents.
Sir, I salute your courage, your strength, your indefatigability. And I want you to know we are with you until victory, until Jerusalem.
George to saddam. Can’t say he’s not loyal.
So this wife is leaving him as well? Poor George. His last one left for the same reason.
Labour Triumph in England and Disintegrate in Scotland
http://scottish-independence.blogspot.com/2005/04/labour-triumph-in-england-and.html
Excerpt: “… British Labour Party are heading for a third landslide in London, but their Scotlandshire Parish Cooncil Branch is disintegrating under the joint attacks of Jack McConnell’s weak parish administration, and the surge by Scotland’s Party - the Scottish National Party:
Scots Labour in turmoil over voter backlash
EDDIE BARNES - POLITICAL EDITOR
SCOTTISH Labour’s election campaign has been plunged into turmoil amid evidence that the party’s tally of Westminster seats could plunge below 40, triggering a major shift in power north of the Border.
The grim prognosis for Scotland’s leading party is already leading to recriminations from senior Labour insiders who are now focusing their anger on First Minister Jack McConnell’s leadership of the party.
Data held by Labour and opposition parties, which has been passed to Scotland on Sunday, supports the view that Labour is heading for several reverses in marginal constituencies… “
Lots of interesting details in the YouGov poll. Some of the questions are pretty leading, but among the more significant findings are that LibDem voters would prefer a very large Labour majority to *any* Conservative majority by a 2:1 margin, and roughly half feel “friendly” to Labour, while two thirds feel “hostile” to the Conservatives. There are more details on things that might make people feel friendly or hostile, which go a long way to answering “Vote Respect”’s queries about attitudes.
The Iraq stuff is unlikely to attract widespread interest beyond the committed - it’s a typical follow-up story to the genuine Attorney-General scoop, which most people didn’t care about either.
BTW, the Telegraph yesterday claimed in an editorial that politicians everywhere are finding greater hostility to the whole political class on the doorstep. I’ve not found this at all - quite the contrary: I’ve heard “you’re all the same” much less than in 2001. Have others?
Just a quick question. Isn’t there a discrepancy between the spread bet for a Labour Majority which is around 82 and the spread bet for Labour seats which is around 364 seats which has a majority of 112?
Nick you better hope you are right.
RE: 20, I am a Welsh Engish Irish national, and therefore a unionist, but on the point you made there I can totaly agree.
If George is running into dofficulties, he has to remember that Bethnell Green and Bow may be Labour, but is hugely conserative with a small c. Perhaps the 10/1 on a conservative victory there (local canditate) ought to shorten a little. (Perhaps as far as 9/1?)
Looks a well informed article about Blunkett returning - Paddy Power offer 6/5 (but do it through the links on the website). http://portal.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/05/01/nlab01.xml&sSheet=/news/2005/05/01/ixnewstop.html
Labour, ended the ban for gays in the military and introduced civil unions. Galloway and his cronies are on record as being supported by non gay friendly people - why would I vote for him and end my freedom? Why would I vote Tory and Howard who supported section 28. My vote would be either Lib Dem or Labour or Green or a progressive SNP or PC who support gay rights.
I note that the betting markets foresee the continuance of Scottish Tory meltdown:
http://politicalbetting.bestbetting.com/Default.aspx?market=16010351
29-You don’t think that the ‘Iraq stuff’ and new revelations that Blair was committed to the war (on a regime change basis and WMD’s were just a smoke screan for the ignorant masses) some 2 years before it was debated in parliament is unlikely to attract widespread interest.
So what you are saying is that we shouldn’t care that Blair has been shown to be a serial liar,its ok,will be ignored,no problem just like the lies on University tuition fees.
New Labour New Ethics!
Week long weather forecasts are in from the BBC and I have checked - on Thursday it’s forecast to be warm and sunny in London, Brighton, Cardiff, Birmingham, York, Manchester, Torquay, Nottingham and cloudy but dry in Glasgow. On this forecast Thursday looks like it’ll have ‘turnout’ weather.
25-It would be great to see Labour collapse in Scotland,as the whole set up is a fraud with Scottish MP’s deciding what level of tuition fees should be paid by English students.
Typical example of Labour gerrymandering,as most issues in Scotland are now decided by the Scottish parliament 20 Scottish MP’s would be fair represntation at Westminster,not going to happen as without these MP’s Labour would not have a majority,what a sham.
Stuart - give it a rest - the Scottish polls show one thing.
Labour are clearly in front - with about twice as many votes as any other party. Who comes second, third or fourth are within the margin of error.
What does this mean? It means the 6-8 seats in Scotland that could change hands will be determined on the ground war.
The Tories (well Max) are up beat about their prospects. But given Max is an unqualified 24 year old Hearts supporting accountant from West Linton then the data is pretty limited.
The reality in Scotland is that the Lib Dems have worked out how to get the maximum effect from the system - so they are likely to win most of their targets. The Nats pile up votes in second places in and around Glasgow - but never make the breakthrough they need.
My guess then - Lib Dems pick up at least two of the four seats they culd win from Labour, the Nats hold their own, the Tories win erm one (possibly two). They also come a poor third in their No1 target seat in Reekie while allowing Alistair Darlijg a comfortable win in their most winnable seat in the capital.
Why? The only reason I can think is they know nothing about targetting (just like the SNP).
If you read the Sunday Times story it doesn’t quite add up. If you read the memo in full, the conclusion says “we need a fuller picture of US planning before taking any firm decisions”.
Anyway I doubt if many will bother to read the story because they have either already voted or have made their minds up on the Iraq issue long ago.
Sans 30 - No, there isn’t a discrepancy. The labour seats spread at 364 is consistent with a majority of 82. 646 seats in total - 364 Labour, 282 everyone else -majority 364-282=82.
John Miles wrote:
“New Labour LIED about fees. Another example of unprogressive taxation”
I would have thought the rich paying to go to university and the poorest paying nothing as an example of progressive taxation. I wonder if you know the specifics of the policy.
“New Labour LIED about privatisation. ‘Our air is not for sale.’”
I can’t bring myself to say anything other than “who cares?”. I certainly don’t care. It just seems like state ownership for its own sake.
Reply:
You seem very apathetic. You don’t seem to care if a PM tells lies. In fact you seem to defend it. What a shame the people of Britain seem to have surrendered the notion of holding a dishonest PM to account. They just “don’t care.”
I think it’s just that Im very partisan really. If they’d lied and then done something which i disagreed with, I’d probably be a lot more angry. I just don’t get angry if i like the end result…i should, but i dont
Tories no better than evens in Gillingham and South Thanet,their best chances in South East?
Ms Smithsopn do you have any article(s) that compare the past performsnce of the Various Pollsters? Cheers.
45. all polls since 1992:
http://www.mori.com/polls/trends/voting-allpub-trends.shtml
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