Betting for and against the opinion polls
April 30th, 2005
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Betting on votes - not seats
With Labour’s victory being almost as big a certainty as Sunderland South being the first seat to declare there’s increasing interest in the party vote share markets where you do not have to factor in the complicated and varied considerations about how the seats will divide.
And it is here that you can bet for or against the findings of specific opinion pollsters. If you think that YouGov are predicting this one best then there might be money to be made. The ICM figures also give some possibilities to gamblers.
But be warned. The spread markets are based on all-UK figures while the opinion polls report their figures on a GB basis excluding Northern Ireland and the latter are roughly 0.97 of the former. So IG’s current Labour spread of 37-37.5% equates roughly to 38.1%-38.6% when comparing with an opinion poll.
If you think that YouGov is calling this right then a sell bet on Labour would be profitable. If you are an ICM fan then there would be money to be made with a buy bet, given that their last Labour share was 40%.
Labour vote share IG Index 37-37.5%: Sporting Index 37-37.75%: Spreadfair 37-37.7%
Tory vote share IG Index 33-33.5%: Sporting Index 33-33.75%: Spreadfair 33.5-34%
Lib Dem vote share IG Index 22-22.5% : Sporting Index 21.5-22.25%: Spreadfair 21.5- 22.2%
MY BETTING: I have just placed a big sell bet on Labour with IG at 37.5%. This equated to a GB figure of 38.6% and means that I am a winner unless the equivalent of at least 13 out of 14 Labour supporters of 2001 stick with the party. Unfortunately a short time after I had placed the bet the firm reduced the spread by 0.5% making it much less value. This was my biggest bet so far and after being a big critic of the pollsters for always over-stating Labour I am at least putting my money where my mouth is.
Mike Smithson
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Mike,
Sounds like a decent bet - although I can’t see you raking in a big profit. Having bought labour seats at 354 with IG and am now thinking about selling up and taking my profit - any thoughts?
Just one note, living in student halls doesnt necessarily give me an accurate picture of the view from outseide. But I know a few Tory-Labour switchers from last time, the Tories promise to make us pay 7% or more interest on hour debts is frightening and I also know that many of the foreign students here are voting labour because of the Tories promises of MORE POLICE, MORE DISCIPLINE etc. This sought of language sits badly with many from other countries, and they all have the vote (assuming they have been here 6 months) - can students make any kind of impact on this election? Whatever the scenario I am confident student votes will be higher for labour and lower for the lib dems than one might imagine.
(please change sought to sort) - shocking grammer! (I used to teach English too…!)
Nick - is your father Ian Luder who used to be involved with the Labour party in Bedford?
I think that is a great bet, Mike. The labour vote in its ultra safe seats (e.g. Liverpool and Glasgow seats) could drop considerably due to turnout and to a degree protest voting, which would reduce the national percentage.
Yes he is
Having lived for years in the ward covering Essex Uni, the student vote, at least until 4 years ago, was always pitifully small. Be interesting to see if students are politically galvinised again
just realised I put ‘hour’ instead of ‘our’ in my initial post too. Dear oh dear.
5. Nick, only Irish and Commonwealth citizens have the right to vote. Where are these foreign students from?
Just noticed: lab maj. less than or = 80. was 1/1 now 5/4
more than 80. was 1/1 now 4/5. “was” = yesterday. Any ideas why?
We having been discussing the right to vote a lot. Are you sure Irish and commonwealth? The balance of opinion here was EU and commonwealth. Some think US as well. When I went to the local council everyone seemed to be on the elctoral role, which didnt help matters. The students are from everywhere - plenty in the commonwealth, especially from India and Canada, Malaysia also. But of course plenty from the rest of the EU and other more obscure parts of the World.
Would welcome advice on the issue.
Further to my 9. - the spread hasn’t changed.
Without wishing to sound facetious John, it is probably because people have been backing Labour to get a majority of more than 80.
Mike, if your bet is labour to get 37.5% or less of the votes cast, I would say that was almost a certainty so a good bet. What price did you get?
US citizens have no right to vote in UK elections. EU citizens have the right to vote in local and European elections, but not for Westminster. All others, including Americans (especially Americans) have to right to vote in UK elections.
14. *correction* “All others, including Americans (especially Americans) have NO right to vote in UK elections”
12. How long have you been waiting to pounce? You know what I mean. Why are they backing labour after their “terrible week” on whatever it was … From even money to 4/5, on probably the most popular of bets, must represent a lot of money.
12. How long have you been waiting to pounce? You know what I mean. Why are they backing labour after their “terrible week” on whatever it was … From even money to 4/5, on probably the most popular of bets, must represent a lot of money.
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/files/dms/Whocanvote_16209-6144__E__N__S__W__.pdf
Hope that works. Explains everything about who can vote.
10 Eu citizens resident in another EU country are entitled to vote in local and Euro elections and not national parliametnary elections. I think UK follows the Eu norms on this.
I think selby will go back to the tories from lab, with the help of students, from york university which is in that constuency,voting lib dem.
Think the lab maj is only 2000, havent seen a price though yet.
Thanks for your help everyone - I shall put posters up around the Hall so everybody knows.
1 + 21 Nick the conservatives wouldn’t make current students pay a higher rate of interest on their loans, only new students. They would have the compensation of being 3,000 quid a year better off though under the conservatives proposals.
If you are from Zimbabwe can you or can you not vote as they are suspended from the commonwealth
Seems strange that someone from Mozambique which was never a UK possession but joined the commonwealth because it is the only pan african organisation that works, can vote, but someone from Heligoland (which was UK but is now part of Germany - in the EU) cnnot.
23. I would imagine that as they are suspended that Zimbabweans cannot vote. Heligoland is a slightly bizarre example to give - a couple of rocks that were British for less than a century. I am sure that Heligolanders don’t think it odd at all!
22, 23 et al. More to the point, aren’t there supposed to be up to half a million South Africans and Australians living in London ? (Esp South West London). Could swing a few seats if anyone has got tem to register….
Re:1. Interestingly, a poll in the Oxstu (one of the Oxford university student papers) stated that the 791 students polled last weekend would break down roughly 41% LD: 28% Con: 20% Lab: 5% Green. Labour’s vote really is down to its bare bones…
24 - Point I am trying to make is that it seems absurd that commonwealth citizens can vote but other EU citizens cannot vote despite the PM signing the EU constitution which effectively makes us one state.
It also seems wrong that SA citizens can vote despite the SA government apparently disbarring all UK passport holders from voting. The UK should only allow commonwealth citizens to vote where their own government extends that privilege to UK citizens
Re 20. Nigel, I’m at York Uni. You may be interested to know that there will be a polling booth on campus for the first time this year, every little helps in getting apathetic students to vote! Also, the uni automatically registers everyone who lives on campus - I think that’ll be about 3000 people - less than John Grogan’s majority! A lot of students are interested in the election, judging by snippets of conversations I’n hearing. The movement definitely is to the Lib Dems, although I’m not sure if that will cost John Grogan his seat or not. The University Tories are also very active - easily the most active of the political groups which could sway a few undecideds (especially in the privacy of the booth!). I’ve also spoken to some people at work who live in Selby and they seem to be moving away from Labour in various forms - mostly staying at home or Lib Dem. Selby going Tory is easy money IMHO.
RE 28: getting students to vote is hard work. When I was running a campaign there (not associated with a part) turnout was 15%. if dragged into a polling booth at gunpoint they would still fail to mark their papers in numbers which I think is a great shame.
Rather amusingly I was accused of being racist by the Labour group, which my co runner, a large East African Asian denied. i think they thought I was running a good campaign, but the problem was the only people who could be bothered to vote were just about Labour. On campus these days I suspect Lib Dems are the new Labour. It is a shame they probably won’t vote.
Thanks for that kevlar 85, Selby was always tory before 97, didnt think lab would hold on last time,does seem like easy money.Only hope for Lab there is that John Grogan is an independent minded Lab Mp.
However don`t know how far thay will resonate outside the campus area.
Re. 29 and 28, I remember seeing a steady stream of people at Keele University going into the polling booths set up in the Chancellor’s Building on May 1st 97. There was one amusing variation on the difficulty of getting students to vote - a friend of mine who was doing a PhD didn’t know how to vote - not as in didn’t know which party to vote for, but she had no idea of the procedure (ie taking one’s card to the presiding officers, their giving you the ballot paper, and so on). I tried my best to explain, anyway - whether I explained with sufficient clarity for her to vote in her home town (she didn’t live on campus, and thus wasn’t registered at Keele) I never found out.
Re. the earlier threads on which foreign residents can vote - isn’t it still the case that citizens of the Irish Republic can vote in British General Elections?
Mike, I´m not a Labour admirer, but I think you have a risky bet on your hands. I know your decided view is that opinion polls overstate Labour. Well I am not quite so sure. Share of the vote (obviously) depends on how everyone else does. My view is that the Tories look less attractive to many voters than last time around, and I am not convinced that their base vote is as enthused as it is meant to be. All the Tory images are negative ones so far. They can´t even make a decent promise on tax cuts. Yes there are lots of places where people will vote for other parties (this has been the case since 1997 really hasn´t it?? Where people think they can vote something other than Labour without getting tories then we have seen wins for Plaid, Monkeys or Liberals). But I don´t sense any move to the Tories among people I know.
Sorry, should have read 8…..
31 - Re “a friend of mine who was doing a PhD didn’t know how to vote - not as in didn’t know which party to vote for, but she had no idea of the procedure (ie taking one’s card to the presiding officers, their giving you the ballot paper, and so on)”
While I’m tempted to laugh at the naivete of your friend I’m more inclined to think it a perfect illustration of the over-inflation of tertiary education.
Does Pakistan count as the Commonwealth?
32. See my post number 8. Irish and Commonwealth citizens.
23 & 36. I stand corrected. Countries from countries that are suspended form the Commonwealth still have the right to vote here, so Zimbabweans and Pakistanis have the right to vote.
When you think about it though, I agree with you to a certain extent Paul, that it is a little odd that someone from Mozambique can vote for who represents Britain in the European Parliament, but an Italian resident in the UK can’t vote for who taxes him!
I had an open bet on the Lib Dems to do better than, oh, I think I started it at about 20.6, making it the best value sell for anyone who wanted to. I’d always agreed with Mike that what’d happened before was a swing from Labour to Lib Dem during the campaign itself. It doesn’t seem to have happened that way this time.
Anyway, I kept an eye on it and kept moving it to make sure it was always the best sell for someone. And now the markets have moved way past me. Why is it that despite all the trading, a small sum at a good price simply didn’t shift? I shouldn’t have tried to be clever and should have just taken the best buy on the market at the time. That’s always assuming I was right of course!
You write: The spread markets are based on all-UK figures while the opinion polls report their figures on a GB basis excluding Northern Ireland and the latter are roughly 0.97 of the former. So IG’s current Labour spread of 37-37.5% equates roughly to 38.1%-38.6% when comparing with an opinion poll.
I suggest that explanation is likely to confuse those who need it most, i.e. foreigners unfamiliar with the structure of the UK. I offer this instead: The spread markets are based on all-UK figures while the opinion polls report their figures on a GB basis excluding Northern Ireland (where the main parties do not operate). GB is 0.97 of the UK. So IG’s current UK Labour spread of 37-37.5% is equivalent to 38.1%-38.7% in a GB opinion poll.
Hackney - I don’t know what amount you were attempting to trade with but if it was with Spreadfair I’ve had a fair bit of success in trading lumps of £20 or so, although not on that particular market. Maybe your “small” amount was just too small to be of interest.
If anyone’s interested I’ve just been doing some canvassing in Brent East and I think it’s pretty safe to bet Lib Dem (I’m Labour). Though there are some Muslims coming back to Labour because the candidate is Muslim and backed by the Muslim Association of Britain (not something I was overjoyed about).
Also a useful reality check as to how little ordinary people care about the election (let alone the exact meaning of the AG’s legal advice etc…or the Independent’s tactical voting tips).
42 - Ah, those pesky ‘ordinary people’. Beloved of politicians when it comes to invoking them as the source of their authority and despised when they don’t behave as they ought; ie fawn over their every move.
Just driven through Selby, the tory and labour campaign HQs are directly next door to each other! I bet the postbox outside gets full of campaign mail v quickly…
Re comments on my bet my thinking is that:-
1. My respect for YouGov which in every UK election test since 2001 has come out top pollster.
2. An expected move this week from Labour to the Lib Dems - a decision that has been shown to have been made before at the last minute.
3. Very low turnouts for Labour in the 300 strongholds where it does not matter
“This sought of language sits badly with many from other countries, and they all have the vote”
You are scaring me. How do they have the vote? Only British citizens are allowed to vote.
46. British, Irish and Commonwealth citizens all have the right to vote in Westminster elections.
(Didn’t you read the 5 posts above where we have already been through this?!)
Are you sure that Commonwealth citizens can vote? I’m amazed, I’m a British citizen since 1066 and am not allowed to vote because I live abroad. Spanish expats aren’t either.
I’d be very surprised Commonwealth Citizens are?
42. Sam F, why aren’t you out canvassing for Glenda?
How many voters will Glenda lose this time? If I remember well she lost a lot of votes between 1997 and 2001.
49. Scroll up Shazz and you will see a discussion about this and relevant links. Commonwealth citizens can vote, and AFAIAW, expats can vote as well.
31. (as long as they haven’t been away for longer than 15 years, I think).
Interesting reading the speculation about the impact students might have on the outcome in Selby. I campaigned for Labour in Edinburgh South and Pentlands during the ‘97 campaign and the orders came from on high to campaign hard at Heriot-Watt University Campus and Edinburgh Uni Student Halls on the assumption that students were more likely to vote Labour. But lo and behold, at the count when we sampled the boxes from the polling stations, the cheeky beggars appeared to have backed the Tories by a clear margin. Just goes to show that you can’t make assumptions!
49 Shazz under the new rules you can almost certainly vote if you haven’t been outisde the UK for more than 15 years. http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/templates/search/document.cfm/11566
I have just cycled round a large part of the Richmond Park constituency . One thing that is noticeable compared to 2001 is there are far fewer party posters and window stickers than in 2001 . The Lib dems still dominate and there are few conservative posters - but both are well down . Is this sort of display not the ” done thing ” anymore - certainly many conservatives do not like to be so “in your face” with their political views - no one wants to fall out with the neighbours over politics . Are Lib dems also less inclined to shout about their political affiliation now or is there less enthusiasm to support them . It certianly does not have the by -election feel you get in other lib dem / conservative marginals such as Guildford and was the case here last time when Jenny Tonge was standing
Tomorrow IoS poll, no exact figures but an 8 point lead for Labour, Conservatives down 4, Labour down 1, Lib Dems up 5.
Source: BBC News24
On the basis of the last IoS poll that means:
Labour 39%
Conservatives: 31%
Lib Dems: 23%
RE 44: I was at that tory hq today! We leafleted a big chunk of west Selby and then drove through the very rural countryside to leaflet + canvass Cawood, Ryther and Church Fenton. Selby town itself was fairly mixed- the people we spoke too in their gardens etc were direct labour-tory switchers because they think the council is doing a good job whilst a couple of builders we met were sticking with labour because they liked the sound of PM Brown. Scary thought. The countryside was as solid as we were expecting, lots of signs and window posters for the tory candidate, as well a favourable welcome on the doorstep. A group of 15 people who went off to cavass Eggborough and Kellington reported that the labour vote was very squishy, and a lot of people were planning to stay at home. However, the reception in Kellington especially was apparently much better than anticipated. Just put £20 on tories taking selby.
56. IoS’s pollster is CR, right?
If so finally they are finding some Libdems!
Can confirm communicate is Labour 39 (-1), Cons 31 (-4), Lib Dem 23(+5)
CR’s consistent low polling of the Lib Dems has, ultimately, served them well: like today’s Indy, tomorrow’s IoS front page: ‘Lib Dems Up Five Percent’ gives the sense of momentum. There is, of course, that combined with TB’s scare stories it could have the reverse effect and send voters back into the Labour camp (Palmer’s Paradox mk III?), but I can’t see it.
61. If CR is to believed Libdems new voters come form the tories!
I wonder what other polls are due; presumably YouGov for the Sunday Times and ICM for the Telegraph. There was mention on Polling Report of an NOP poll showing Labour’s lead falling from 10% to 5%, but no further details thus far, so this could be incorrect.
58. Canvassed one of the villages in the South of Andover (Hampshire) today with our County Councillor. Traditional Tory country, most people say they will vote. However, a lot of people say they are undecided (the consensus in this site is that undecided is likely a polite version of ‘not for you’). I wonder whether UKIP might do better than expected. There were also a few Labour voters saying they will switch to Conservatives, including the postman! it fits pretty well with what MORI was reporting earlier this week… http://www.mori.com/pubinfo/sa/disaffected-labour.shtml
John O can see no mention of this poll on Pollin Report can you link?
Surely most people will say ‘Not sure’ or ‘Yes, I’m voting for you’ to most canvassrs from any party. That why opinion polls weight for such conspiracy tactics, canvassers do not.
Re. 35, ha ha, I agree with you that higher education has been over-expanded. In the case of the friend who had no idea of the procedure for voting, though, her intellect was sound (she’s had a book published, and is now a part-time tutor in the American Studies Department at Nottingham University) but she was a bit dizzy and lacking in common sense.
Just a reminder. In 1997 the silent majority threw the tories out. In 2001 they kept the tories out, with more or less the same numbers. I see no reason why they will not do the same this time. And before you demur … The vocal minority i.e the media, the opposition politicians, the single issue nuts and particularly people on sites like this, were convinced it would be totally different on each occasion.
At 66, Burb says:
“Surely most people will say ‘Not sure’ or ‘Yes, I’m voting for you’ to most canvassrs from any party. That why opinion polls weight for such conspiracy tactics (…).”
That was surely what Mike ws talking about, Burb. Which opinion pollester do you prefer, and the respondent says “I am voting for you”.
You are quite right to say that this should be taken with a pinch of salt.
Burbachchris @65: The comments (mostly by Zane) are postings 94, 96, 100 this afternoon arising from the main story. I don’t want to start hares running which explains my caution/caveat.
64. The postman’s switching? That’s the postal votes in the bag then!
JR - no they weren’t. Almost everyone though the Tories were going to lose in 1997 and 2001. What colour is the sky in your world?
There’s a MORI poll for The Observer/Mirror showing Lab 36, Con 33, LibDem 22 on certain to vote. Link is:
http://www.mori.com/election2005/index.shtml
Looks like my bet for the tories taking Selby will be ok. Thanks Jh re 58, seems like a vote for Lib Dem in selby by disgruntled lab voters will do what Blair says, well at least here.
68, In my way that’s what I have been trying to say for a while, it has not come across like that I know, and sometimes I lose my rag (sorry) but this election does not have the feel of a revolution if you know what I mean like 97, more a mid term blues type of election, sure government not as popular as it was but not that unpopular to be thrown from office, think about it without Iraq they would have been returned with an even bigger majority IMO
72. What the vocal minority thought is one thing, what they said is another. Everybody on this site thinks lab will win by about a hundred, but few are saying it. I am by the way.
Again the caution must go to canvas returns, and street support means not a lot, as labour found out in 92, lots of people will say one thing and vote another, never worked out why this is, if say someone I disagree with comes to my door I will tell them had a massive row with then very right wing Tory MP Harold Eletson argued right on to the street, he won in 92
but lost in 97 now he is in the Lib Dems, funny that the left of centre party can accommodate someone with his views?
77.”funny that the left of centre party can accommodate someone with his views? ”
and funnier considering he’s now in the same party as Brian Sedgemore.
78 Andrea are you thinking what I’m thinking?
79. Are you from Blackpoll, right (or I’m making confusion with someone else?)? South or North?
Blackpool South, not activve in politics though, just like everyone else around here I think organised politics died in 97
81. So you’re in a safe seat (at least for this election) for Labour.
So probably little activity there, right?
BN is more marginal.
Why do you think organized politics die in 1997?
JH@58 - have you been in Selby for a while or are you mutual aiding.
If you know much about the seat can you mail me, in confidence, at office@greenwichconservatives.com as I have a query about the seat
Ta
82 Because since then there has hardly been any political activity on the ground, the Tory party has a few big clubs around here, but they do not seem very active anymore, labour were very active in 97 loads of canvassers but none last time, the only canvassing this time (yet) has been from our MP Gordon Marsden who I missed my partner told him she would vote for him, but I have my doubts because she has never told me who she has voted for, and I suspect although she will not confirm or deny it that she voted Tory in 92.
One of the problems for the Tories around here is age, I remember last time seeing the ones at the polling station in wheel chars and walking sticks bless them, Labour has no strong roots here on the coast and does not appear to be that organised, I don’t know if this is typical of many seats, but I do resent the attention all the marginals get, I know under FPTP safe seats do not matter but it would be nice to put the candidates through their paces, particularly the BNP one whose literature was so outrageous I am surprised he was allowed to get away with it.
But it does distress me the lack of activity on the ground, just because the seat is now sort of safe, does that mean we don’t get the chance to grill the candidates, there are no election meetings.
I forgot to mention the Lib Dems, as far as this area is concerned they do not exsit
Robert - I would say that that sounds typical of a lot of constituencies where the Tories fell back badly in 1997 and where Labour have no real roots. Can’t really see it changing all that much in the forseeable future.
Conservative clubs aren’t a great indicator of activity. I occasionaly frequent the Innerleithen Unionist club (especially if there’s a disco on - yes we still have disco’s in Peeblesshire!), which is thriving but in one of the less Tory areas of the constituency.
It’s a shame, because I feel the more the public got interested in politics the more the politicians would have to listen, to us, could you imagine elections with near 100 % turn out now that would be good, a real mandate, I value my vote even though I am meant to be in a safe seat and I always vote in every election just wish others would
84. Thanks Robert for your detailed answer. If you feel neglected, think about voters of Bootle!
If I remember well your MP (Gordon Marsden) don’t even live in Blackpool, but lives in Brighton.
88, I think he does, but he must have a home here, but he has not been a bad MP as MP’s go, I know he did live down there, it rather proves my point that local politics is dead, when they could not find a local person for the job but as I said Labour do not have many roots around here, , it’s quite depressing actually I have this conversation with a number of people, we need a bit more energy up here. I would love to get involved but job and career and family would get in the way,
I will still vote labour this time, because to be honest it is in my best interests I have done quite well since 97, but I am a vote Tart, come next time you never know
89. I thought that in UK having a local man (and not a “parachutee”) as MP was important.
Andrea @90. Historically generally not, and still broadly the exception, particularly for the likely high flyers from all parties. The need for taking a national perspective has often tended to outweigh the local dimensions in candidate selection.
I don’t know whether this is apochyphal (maybe attributed to a number of politicians) but the version I heard was attributed to Duncan Sandys, a Tory of huge conceit, who when challenged at a public meeting for his poor constituency performance, replied imperiously, “Madam, I represent Streatham in Parliament, not Parliament in Streatham”.
Andrea at 90 - you’re dead right and it will become more important. At the end of the day people vote for a package - a local representative, a party politician and a set of policies. My view that the first is becoming the most important of the three - look out for Labour losing the Rhondda as a result!
Interesting comments. harking back to the days of Clement Atlee being driven about by his wife and John major on hos soap box, but how many people would give a polite reception to an earnest campaigner from the other side these days? It is truely a shame.
hilariously welling,belated Lacerta,wristwatch whatsoever
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