My betting
May 5th, 2005I’ve just bought the Lib Dems at 68 seats after getting some bullish reports from people I regard. I’ve not done what I would term a big bet but not a small bet either.
It looks like a goodish punt at this price.
Mike Smithson
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Ramping!!! Who’d have thought it.
I jest, of course. I heard this morning that the LDs fancy themselves in a few Cons seat, especially in the SW. Did that play a part in what you were told?
Tom - I’ve made it a policy of stating what my bets are here and be assured I would not be risking money if I did not think it was worth the punt.
Indeed, Mike: I was in jest. But seriously, if you feel able it would be interesting to know the reasons for your informants’ bullishness - is it generated from some particular type of constituency?
You may be right. I note that the Betfair market (which is still open) currently has the LibDems as clear favourites in Edinburgh South! That would be a remarkable scalp: it is LD target no.35; requires a large Lab to LD swing of 7% (not easy in a four-party country); and it is held by high-profile Labour Nigel Griffiths, the Minister at the Department of Trade and Industry responsible for Construction, Enterprise and Small Business (his own website - http://www.nigelgriffiths.co.uk/ - describes him as an MP - is that not illegal?)
http://politicalbetting.bestbetting.com/Default.aspx?market=15949866
4 That Betfair market has a book value of 238.5% The lay price on the Liberals of 5.90 is probably more like it.
Tom - my source is a senior member of the party’s national campaign team who told me to get on Leciester South last July.
Mike - any significant shifts in the marginal seats to our favour yet?
6 - I’m on 71 or more (9/4) and am confident.
And is your 132/1 bet going to come in?
I got 3.5 / 1 on 70 - 85 seats a few weeks ago.
But would you trust any source, who knows until the votes are counted?
lib dems just gone 66-69 seats on IG
Where is the LD vote share spread?
23 23.5
12. NLP experts tell me that telling someone not to do something is a no no. Labour’s tactic of @dont’t vote LIbDem’ may have backfired.
14 - thanks. So 23.5-24 in GB-only terms.
BTW for those who are interested, Nick Harvey in his blog on the Spectator predicts a hold for himself by between 1,500 and 1,700 votes. Not sure how helpful that is, but is interesting none the less.
yes
Edinburgh South is not such a scalp. Don’t forget its MSP is already libdem and that the boundary changes have brought in more Libdems than Labour (and more Conservatives, but probably not enough to make a difference). Be a good result nonetheless though. I’m intigued how much progess they make in Ed. East. The boundaries there have changed considerably.
Over 70 seats is quite possible at this stage. Not really any hard data but the dynamics in the last few days have been extremely good for them.
15 - I dont know if what you say will affect the result, but I think that what William Hague said about the campaign not affecting the election result is not quite right.
I would say that in general the campaign will not affect the election result UNLESS you mess up and upset/patronise the electorate.
Personally I think that the Blairs Sun interview and Blunketts “self indulgence” comments had a whiff of the sheffield rally about them.
Anyone heard any bad news about their own parties? Thought not.
20 - certainly renewed momentum through the last weekend (which was the key pointer to the final result in 1992). I would have liked the poll figures to be a couple of points higher today, but it doesn’t matter now! I expected 60-62 at the start of the campaign, but would now be disappointed not to beat that.
22. Yes I’m a founder member of Veritarse (lol)
22 LOL so true so true, I think the Lib Dems may be a bit more disapointed by the end of the night
LOL at posters 22 and 25 accusing others of looking through partisan spectacles!
Do I need to back > 75?! (on 56-75)
my monies on 66-75
26, I think he had a valid point, now there are 2 ways to look at it
1) Everybody’s right
2) We tend to see things the way we want to see them and get the data to fit the facts this can go on until reality comes back (at 10.00)
But I do see the funny side, but saying that I am partisan the very idea
No doubting that the majority of us here have attachments that make us less than 100% objective. Except you of course Robert
I’m sure Lib Dems will fare better than 68, I would have thought about 80 seats. Many people I’ve spoken to (work colleagues, neighbours etc) are defering from Labour to Lib Dem, and Tories are moving to Lib Dem also. If not seats, they a much higher number of electors will be voting Lib Dem. Bring on electoral reform
http://www.vote2005forum.org.uk
I do not know how he has managed to get a look at the exit polls, but I’ve read on some websites that the American radio talk show host Rush Limbaugh is apparently saying that the exit polls are showing a move towards the Tories. I have not been able to listen in myself, sounds quite dodgy to me.
Dream result for me:
Labour overall majority 45
Lib dems become official opposition
My nurse is due shortly
32, How would he have done that when they won’t be finished yet
Hey guys. Back from Foula in the Shetlands, about six minutes ago. Still got my lambing gear on. I just heard a rumour from a Labour insider - forgive me if this has been covered before - that Blair is really quite unwell, heart trouble, and will therefore retire pretty quickly after victory. I saw in a paper this morning that people are giving odds on when Blair and Howard will go - and in which order. Intriguing. Can’t remember the odds though! Labour to win by 68.
What did a wise old sage say about what was going to happen on here through out the day, rumour after rumour, have you lot started drinking already, be careful it’s a long night you need to be wide awake for when the first results come in
I saw Blair a couple of days ago and he seemed fine to me. Can we dispense with all this ramping?
MJ [33] - is she pretty?
Sean [35] - now that’s class ramping… I can hear Labour’s knocking-up line now…
34 - I would imagine they might have a lot of data already, they may even be nearly done. I have no idea how it works and the timings etc.
Very strange.
I’m a Conservative Party member so discount my words if you wish. I can’t stand wishful thinkers and fantasists because they impede information gathering so I would only rely on people I consider serious. Here’s three straws in the wind: (1) Hardheaded candidate in Lab marginal in Kent - sees quite steady turn out in all areas/Lab. tellers reporting ‘a fair few’ defections to Lib Dems/Tories pleased with GOTV. (2) Long time activist in safe-ish Tory seat in Bucks - very good postal votes for Tories/Lib Dems to overtake Lab for 2nd place(3) Hampshire Tory seat non-activist mate - surprising hyperactivity from Lib Dems - going door-to-door to labour supporters brandishing newspaper article naming seat as one Libs ‘could win’. Make of it all what you will.
re 33. Martin Jones
“My nurse is due shortly”
I want one too! (Hate to be discriminating, but can I not have a male one.)
Apparently, after having seen indications of massive swings against in many marginals, many senior Labour figures are privately very worried about a total Labour meltdown. Rumours have it that they are in talks to bring Robert Kilroy Silk back into the Labour party or at least form a coalition with Veritas in the looming hung parliament.
…the flaw in 42 is that R K-S will not join a party unless he’s leader…or maybe?
Its going to be a long night with this sort of juvenile sh1t flying around.
Mike, (if it is you), can you check for posts from the same email but with different names and get rid of them.
Err Rush Limbaugh. why would he xcare about Our election. in response to ThirtY TwO. 1
39. The exit polling companies collate the data through the day. So they’ll have (say) 12 Noon figures, 5 PM figures and 9 PM figures. The Networks go with the last at 10 PM, but (as they are paying for the poll) the earlier “results” are also forwarded to the broadcasters…
Which are supposed not to leak them…
I have secret information from my best source Mr R.Amp
1) Blair to Lose in Sedgefield
2) Tories to win Manchester Central
3) Libdems to win Huntingdon
4) Winner in Sedgefield is L Sutch (Decd)
FORT SEVEN you sdaid you were getting fresh information what is it? I put more credence on your views than most onj this site. Thanks.
Never Posted B4… you might be a bit more credible if you didn’t post the same comment to two different discussion threads
The Evening Standard quotes a private Conservative poll which shows a 146 Labour majority.
46 - Blair is quite popular among American conservatives.
49. The “rumour”, which I’ve also heard, is that the Tories were polling ahead of Labour at midday. Mind you, my source is about as reliable as a 99p coin, so take it with a proverbial bucket of salt. Also remember, preminary numbers are unadjusted. Raw counts.
53 - interesting, but then I remember Kerry being 20% up in New Hampshire at midday. One thesis behind those polls was that the challenger tends to get the “angry” votes earlier, then the incumbent catches up. We’ll see!
49 I’m very flattered that you think I have some credibility. (I wonder whether, by this time tomorrow, I or anyone else here will have much!)
I’m trying to get more, but I had to do a lot of badgering to get what I did.
51. Sophia, really or did you make it up?
56 - Really (unfortunately). It was in the Londoner’s Diary section of the paper.
Fifty who’s that in response too?
57 - I smell an australian rat
BTW this story is amusing:
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/articles/18389367?source=Evening%20Standard&ct=5
57. Thanks.
Look, if any of these rumours were true, that there was the possibility of a hun parliment or worse, surely the betting markets would be in quick collapse right now, as punters try and reduce their losses.
I am surprised Rozza didn’t sort the labour canvassers out.
58 (David), it was in response to 40. Thx
That should read a hung parliment rather than a hun one, although mayble Kaiser Liz would be pleased!
60. Amusing. I thought that some things couldn’t happen in UK, but I was wrong. Party supporters are the same in all countries.
Re 60 - I know how the guy feels - its a dangerous business this political campaigning. I was in an unfamiliar part of the constituency. So I was walking along holding my map in front of me and walked straight into a lamp post! It was one of those times when your really glad no one else is around to see you!
Sorry - above should read Max. Its been a long day.
Couple of things - one fact, one speculative:
Just voted in rural part of Stroud, quite busy, and very few names not crossed off list. I predict a high turnout in this part of the world (although I’ve no idea who it’ll favour)
When Brian Sedgemore defected last week he indcated that there were more to follow and implied that some were standing for election this time round. Any money on any ex-Labour MPs defecting tonight at his/her count?
69, I do not think so, Sedgmore was one on his own he would say that
Re the exit poll. No one will run with it until exactly 2200 after the polls have closed. Remember TV and Radio have to abide by struct rules on polling day about what they can and cannot say — hence why you’ve heard nothing on air about the final opinion polls.
Unless you have real inside information (which will be a few people at BBC, ITV and polling co) I would ignore any speculation about the outcome.
I’ve just backed the drumbeats I’m hearing about big Labour defections to the Lib Dems with some of my hard earned dosh. Goes against the grain for a Tory to back the LDs but this seems to be a moving story and there’s money to be made.
Re 69 - Can’t see any other MP’s doing so. It would be an absolute disgrace if any did.
Between elections, you do get ex MP’s switching but for just reelected MP’s to switch would be shocking and immoral in a way. I don’t expect any MP’s to be foolish enough to defect this evening.
Brian Sedgemore said there were a whole load who would defect, but they were all people who were standing down at this election.
54 - I heard one reason the early polling favoured Kerry was that churches in the south and west were bussing in voters by the score to do their bit for Bush and the Lord; and this wasn’t picked up
If you check out this site, you’ll see the results of their ongoing exit poll. Before the election, the majority of people taking the test recorded that they would vote Lib Dem, followed by Labour - so it comes with a health warning. http://www.whoshouldyouvotefor.com/
Current votes are:
36% Lib Dem
25% Conservative
22% Labour
4% Green
The surprising thing is that the Tories are polling more than Labour.
The company that run the website have emailed everyone who tokk their original test, asking them to re-visit the site.
Tam Dayell (spelling?) was on the radio recently urging voters to vote Labour and then to let the party sort Blair out. Now Tam appears to be one of the most anti-Blair Labour (ex-)MPs, if he’s staying in the fold, I think talk of mass defection is untrue. Remember, this is a campaign that has featured both Tony Benn and Michael Foot doing their bit.
Just a snap shot but talking to a carpenter working on my new house. 28 years old never voted before because not previously interested. Voted today for the Lib Dems because he didn’t agree with the war or like TB. I thought this was quite a telling statement.
Lib Dem mid-point vote share just gone up to 23.5% on IG. Mike’s source is clearly not the only one feeling bullish…
77, Beware of voodoo polls, in 97 when AOL ran one with loads of respondants, it had the Tories down for a landslide victory, they don’t tell us anything, I am sure their are loads of other examples
I can hear heads rolling….
Just arrived home from (uniquely on this site) voting for Robin 1-man-and-his-dog Page. He invited me to his ‘count’; I declined, as I thought it more profitable to place some bets.
But as I can’t get on for anything other than trivial amounts, I rather wish I’d agreed to go to Cottenham village hall (or somesuch) to see his tiny pile of votes ‘live’.
BTW, no activists are posting now—they are hard at work. So we are all in the ‘waster’ sub-set of anoraks at the moment.
Robert S [53] - I’m 100% sure the Tories were ahead at mid-day. I’m also sure that was true in 1945, 1997 and last time. Every Labour agent in the country will have told his/her candidate they’ll be behind until at least 5 o’clock. They’ll be ahead now, though… if they’re going to win the seat
Opinion polls - extrapolation - spin - internet discussion boards - focus groups - exit polls - swingometers etc etc……
The reality of playing one’s part in the democratic process is so different.
I’ve just strolled down to the local (dilapidated) youth centre. The 108 year-old Poll Clerk seated at wonky trestle table gave me my ballot paper. I go into the sub-MFI hardboard voting booth - and place my cross with a nursery school sized pencil tied to a bit of string.
And the new (in my constituency) pastic/fibreglass ballot boxes with the slit in the side are not a patch on the good old tin boxes !
I’m amazed observers from Togo and Chile etc. are not reporting us to the the UN.
Update from Kent - no sign of post-tea time Labour rush.
Just voted. Turnout at my polling station so far is over 50% (Westbury Constituency) Doesn’t look too healthy for the Conservatives here worse luck. Everyone I know is voting tactically lib dem though I think the Tories are out in force this time.
Am I right in thinking that none of us have a clue what exactly is going to happen this evening.
My wife and I are just back from the village hall where we did the deed (no, not that one). 100% turnout from our road!!! Not so impressive when you realise that just means our next door neighbours had already voted too - but, still, there can’t be many roads in the country that can say it!
88, apparently they’ll be some kind of election result or something. But I wouldn’t put any money on it.
90 - This evening? I thought it would be tomorrow morning.
What I can say is that neither my wife or I were able to vote due to the inadequacies of the Foreign Office (like all our pals) but then we are in the west indies so it’s not all bad………..
Re 88. Sophia, I think you have hit the nail on the head. None of us have a clue, which is what makes election nights such a festival! Only the Eurovision Song Contest even comes close in terms of thrills!!!
Have to agree, it’s nail biting stuff, I always find it strange with all teh coverage for 4 weeks, and then on the day nothing, until 10 pm but I love it it’s like a world cup final love it, and it’s the best telly we have all year, or am i just sad? (My other half thinks I am politics bores her)
78 - Believe me there’s quite a few of us lying in wait! I will vote for my party, but I have abstained from active campaigning. After election, whatever the result, it will be time to take the party back. It will, hopefully, be the revenge of the moderate Labour members against the free market ideologues around Blair.
By the way, here in notts, voted at around 6.30, from the names crossed of, looked around 45-50% have voted so far, but with promising queues developing at the polling station!
For the last three generals ( all the ones since I was 18 ) I have been at counts and too involved in that one seat to be able to take in the full picture of election night. I’m really looking forward to tonight !
93 - For the full Eurovision experience replace Dimbleby with Wogan!
David or Jonathan?
95, What back to unelectability?
33 Well, if that happens I promise you I will come and be that nurse lol
Lots of shaky hand syndrome though. I think the Con scare tactics actually worked.
Using UK Elect on 35 - 33 - 25 I get a picture that’s consistent with everything we’re hearing. Libs get 84 seats, Labour 359 and Tories 173. 70 seats change hand, Labour to Tory in London and the Midlands, Tory to LibDem in the south.
Well.. it kills the waiting time!
100- you mean the Labour scare tactics suggesting the Tories would get back in?
Oh, and Howard holds Folkestone by 476!
101 Not on Baxter. But who cares at this stage?
99 - remind me again about the health the blair project? Without human shield gordon brown, the protest votes to the lib dems would have been even worse. Anyhow, I am talking about “moderate” Labour. When I joined the party in the 80s I used to get aggro for being too “right wing”, without changing my views much I’ve seen blair rush policy past my point on the scale until I’m almost left wing. We need sensible, moderate, gradual policies to push this country along the road better levels of social justice and liberty. We don’t need the extremism of all the anti-liberal stuff and all the ideological drive to create markets in health and education etc etc, this is one for tomorrow onwards
93 Tony Blair, nul points
Gordon Brown vingt points
Charles Kennedy, quinze points
“The three major parties between them accounted for 94.98% of the votes cast. But the Conservative Party achieved its 51.11% of seats on the basis of support from 32.29% of the electorate” When? 1970
Re. 69, something almost as bad happened at the 94 Newham North-East by-election, namely the Liberal Democrat candidate, Alec Kellaway, defecting to Labour on the eve of poll (thus sparing the Tories yet another third place on top of the same day’s by-elections in Eastleigh and Bradford South).
Re. 94, you’re no sadder than I am, Robert! I’ve always absolutely loved them (I’m the sort of person who stays up for by-elections and local elections, never mind General Elections). Your comparison with a World Cup is not coincidental - like big occasion football matches, it’s just sheer theatre (although any penalty shoot-out involving England is probably more cruel and unusual punishment).
As for Tories voting early, and Labour supporters voting later on, that’s broadly true. As a Labour voter (and member) who tends to vote early (I was, the presiding officer told me, the very first voter in the polling station this morning), I’m almost certainly the exception.
Eurovision Song Contest? Well, there aren’t usually as many good looking females on General Election nights as on Eurovision nights (although it’s a bit closer this year, what with the fragrant Jenny Willott and Justine McGuinness standing - I don’t have much time for the LDs, but with the likes of Willott and McGuinness, they certainly can’t be written as beardy weirdies and anoraks any more).
95 - billy pilgrim - which part of notts?
Robert [94] Yes, it is like the world cup final, and yes, you’re sad, but aren’t we all on this site? Fantastic night, truly compulsive and five grand win or lose riding on the outcome of thirteen open spread bets! Doesn’t come much better than this, does it?
102 Yes. I know one personally, wanted to spoil her vote, but voting NuLab, because of Tory hatred.
She’s a LibDem, but won’t admit it.
I feel like a kid on Christmas Eve - I can’t believe it is actually here at last!! God, we are sad…
99. They can’t wait to go back to opposition. Well, they will take new Labour there over my dead body. Yes, I know you blues think you are serious about politics. You have no idea.
Walked past Fulham Central Library about 19.10. Seemed to be a hive of activity. Mainly younger voters going in after work. Someone with a blue rosette pacing up and down on his mobile seemed agitated, but at least he hadn’t gone home. Surely the Tories can win Hammersmith and Fulham???
Sorry that should have been written off. There’s been very indifferent (if not downright) poor weather (including grey skies, drizzle and rain) in Leek today. This won’t help the Labour cause in Staffordshire Moorlands. And people said we were all talking up the prospects of our respective parties….
Markets have been quiet all day, deathly quiet, I’d say…
110, I have quite a bit of money on this, so that adds to it, but I do love it, I like politics, it’s great that we have sites like this where you can talk about it, I have noticed that talking about politics in public is regarded almost as bad as smocking
105 Me too lol. I’m quite right wing on economic policy. I’m interested in what works, not ideology. However NuLabbers now call me “loony left”.
They say the LiDems have moved to the left, but have they? I don’t think they’ve moved much. It’s just that the Pink Tories are disappearing off stage right.
As far as I can see, NuLab have just kept the bad bits about the Labour movement, the class hatred, the tribalism, etc.
Apologies if this has already been picked up but looking at the BES site, I think they’ve updated again for continued polling through yesterday. Among certain to votes, it’s now Lab 35, Con 32.6 and Ldem 23.5 - a lead of only 2.4% down from 3.1% yesterday. Both Tory and Ldem up at the end and Labour slipping. Other than that, brisk turnout in the Tory part of Harlow this morning (6.5% required). Spoke to the CON candidate this morning who was pretty confident but I guess one would expect him to be. Still if there is going to be above average swing anywhere, Harlow is the kind of place where it will happen.
http://www.essex.ac.uk/bes/
117. Smocking isn’t bad, but it’s not cool. Went out about 1450.
Could be worse, could be as bad as de-smocking in public…
119. You’re right Glen - that is new. Maybe Rush was right after all…
Glen at 119 - the Times aren’t predicting a result in Harlow until 7am - are they thinking something I’m not thinking?
121. Can we keep this snapping up of unconsidered trifles going for another hour and a quarter?
A bit surprised by the lack of hard (or even soft) info in this thread. Going back to comment 4, I’m not at all surprised that LD are favourites for Ed South. Here in Perry Barr (LD target 73) the race is tight despite only very limited LD campaigning. Labour vote projection under 13K, so it depends on how well the Con+Respect vote holds up. Yardley must be a landslide. Letwin gone. And if I had any money I’d put some on an LD win in Hornsey.
I wonder whether the fine weather might save Labour in quite a few places. I wouldn’t bet against a healthy Labour majority.
119, I do not really have much political idealism left in me anymore, I just tend to vote with who I feel better off with and this time it’s labour, I have done very well since 97, I like most of the policies not all, was against the war, had very bad experience when I was a teenager with Tories (unemployment etc etc).and find it very hard to forgive them, I left school in the 80’s and the unemployment was shocking I had never seen such desperation in this country, so you could say that I am scared by this
Hope Labour win, but if they do not it’s not the end of the world, I learnt that from 92, I thought the world would come to an end, it did not I survived, and now in my late 30’s I see things in a different light, I know what ever happens the world just goes on, I think about my late grandmother who died aged 105 a few years ago, how many governments had she seen come and go, but despite her solid working class Jewish background she remained a Tory all her life, I could never understand that one
108. The electoral equivalent of the penalty shoot out is the recount. Nerve-shattering for the participants and their supporters,
The underlying figures on BES have ca. 5% between each of the parties. Very promising if turnout is good I’d say…
123 - Not quite sure what you mean but anyway, I was told by the Con agent this morning that Harlow normally declares between 3 and 4am. I have no knowledge of the outcome but there are a few local issues here that would work against Labour eg further housing affecting surrounding villages. I tried to put a bet on today but couldn’t find a bookie taking bets. On my previous post, it should have said 6.5% swing required. Only smallish Ldem vote here.
Anyone read the Sun editorial today? They mentioned the LDs disparagingly in every single sentence! Quite apart from the ridiculous page 3 thing…
I think all this publicity won’t be quite as bad for the LDs as Murdoch Inc. think - the editorial read almost as satire. ‘Dangerously different’ indeed.
108 - sadly the even more fragrant Norsheen Bhatti, LD candidate in Battersea, isn’t going to win. I hope they show Caroline Flint’s declaration though, and Tory Nicola Talbot’s in Islington N. How’s that for non-partisanship?
I’ve voted. I feel sick and unsure about whether I’ve done the right thing.
And my spelling is as bad as ever thanks guys for noticing the smocking, but I din;t do to bad considering that I am dyslexic
132. - if you voted then you have made a better choice than around 30% of the population.
132 - Don’t worry, me too
Spoke to my building surveyor brother who was going to vote Labour for job reasons. He has voted Conservative. I don’t know why.
132 and 135 - I take it you both got this ’shaky hand syndrome’?
I’m guessing Lab will do better than predicted and the Lib Dems worse.
132 - Stop being so self-important. Your vote is not going to make THE difference, is it?
1 hour to go, I wish everyone an enjoyable evening!
Report from my polling station - east Fitzrovia, London (not yer average I agree, but then again what is average?) - pretty quiet turn-out wise. Indeed quieter than it was for the European elections. An early straw poll (my fiancee) shows a swing from Labour to Lib Dem. At least that’s what she’s telling me; she might just be trying to cheer up this particular mildly wistful Tory.
136, As I mentioned before I do not know many in the building industry that will vote for anyone else but Labour, in fact I am sure there was a survey of Architects and it was something like 11-1 in favour of Labour, the building industry has never had it so good, well this Building Surveyor voted Labour
Oh and incase you dont know Dead Ringers election special at 10pm bbc 2!
138 - Better that people care that much about their vote - I know a few people voting Tory purely cos they don’t like Blair’s grin.
141. Enjoy it for now. It’s not going to last! This is a good election to lose.
Just looking at the BES data. It looks like the focus on Iraq and Labour’s attempts to demonise a Ldem vote have caused a very large swing from Lab to Ldem in the last week. Comparing data from the 28th April to May 4th, on certain to vote, Lab is down 2.6% to 35. The Tories fairly level at 32.6 (down 0.5) and the Ldems up from 20.3 to 23.5%. This is a rolling poll so the last couple of days must have been even sharper than the 5 day trend. Also, one more day of the trend brings the Lab over Con lead down close to 2%. Would suggest the Ldems could finish over 24%. (Bottom table on the link)
http://www.essex.ac.uk/bes/2005/Rolling%20campaign.htm
Final Ave it projection:
A dramatic collapse in Labour vote - too close to call in populer vote - hung parliament a possibility - big progress for LD but gains offset by losses, also big advances in hopeless seats:
Lab 34% Con 34% LD 25% Others 7% (GB only)
Lab 323 Con 233 LD 60 PC 5 SNP 6 KHHC 1 NI 18
Inc Staffordshire S
Lab short by 1 with Stafford S, maj 1 without
Good luck everyone!
145. That BES poll is very interesting actually.
No boom ever does Richard I know that, but don’t give me this is a good one to lose line, it is rather silly you can’t say that until a few years after
Ave it 05, He is he drinking what the tramps are drinking?
Hmm, first instance of shaky hand syndrome to the other side.
I’ve said this before, but the facinating thing about this election is the electorate. It has been unfailingly interesting and articulate.
Am I alone in thinking that non of the campaigns have been any good?
I am a fan of Kennedy, but I don’t think he did well.
I haven’t felt Labour have had one, they just seemed to lurch from crisis to crisis.
I thought the Tories started brilliantly, but they should have got more positive at the end.
141 - He could give no reason for voting Tory, he seemed a tad disappointed with himself, but he just could not vote Labour.
We will see who’s right or wrong in an hour with the exit poll, see you all later hope you all have a good night
150. Labour didn’t really need a campaign. It was the economy, stupid.
148. That was a patronising response Robert. I am utterly and absolutely serious that this is NOT a good election to win. There are massive economic clouds looming and if the Tories win they’ll take the rap for it. My favourite outcome is a Labour majority in single figures - as a Tory that would be perfect for me.
Every economist I know agrees about the problems ahead - with a full blown recession a possibility. (See yesterday’s Standard for a report on this.)
153 I quite agree, but the Milburn fiasco put that on the back burner.
And we’ve not heard that much about it.
And only when things went pear-shaped
Very strange.
148. Except that if things can only get better why are we having the election now instead of next year?
154. I think this recession talk is Hot Air. We didn’t even have a recession (in the UK) after 9-11! The Chinese locomotive will pull the world economy out of any moderate slow-down…
The problem with the BES tracker poll is that it is at serious variance with Populus’s tracker poll carried out at the same time which projected a massive final lead to Labour of 13 points which is most unlikely.
Re. 131, admirably non-partisan! I’d love to see the declaration from Nottingham North (where the gorgeous Pritti Patel is standing, a terrible waste when she should be in a safe seat by now, after having earned her spurs fighting Blackburn in 97). Very unlikely that we will (safe Labour seat), but, by way of compensation, we’ll probably see a live result from Watford (Claire Ward). Oh, and Katherine Atkinson (the Labour candidate in Kensington and Chelsea, which was shown live last time) isn’t bad either.
Hasn’t anyone got any Exit Poll goss? I was in the States for their last election and the Net/blogosphere was alive with trenchant rumours way before the last polling stations closed. Or have I missed summat?
157. Actually the latest reports from China are speaking of recession there.
Anyway, tonight is about politics not economics! We can debate the ‘doom’ ahead another day!
This turnout thing is confusing. Stories of queues elsewhere, but when I voted in Southfields (Putney) at 7.30 pm there were hardly any names crossed off my section of the register. Yes, I know it’s before the evening surge(?) but I don’t remember it being this low before.
158 Agreed Roger but the BES poll does appear to have been more stable than the Populus tracker. Anyway, only 40 mins to go !
I think the picture that is coming through from all the reports and rumours is that far from a uniform swing there will be a uniform nothing.
Ladies and Gents I think we are about to witness the counts for 646 by-elections. Enjoy the ride :-0
Rob at 138 - no, I hope not. But it affects how I feel.
Kurt at 137 - no, I didn’t get shaky hand, I went through with it. I feel like I’ve betrayed part of myself. It wasn’t because of the war, I supported that. It was the civil liberties issues. Blair so cavalier with our rights. Writing letters does nothing, all I could do was vote.
126. I vaguely remember the 1945 election and was 11 years old at in 1951 when, unbelievably, (or so my staunch labour family thought at the time), Churchill (the war-mongering beast!) got back in. Then, 1964 (I was 24, you had to be 21 to vote then), when the new, dynamic “white heat of the scientific revolution”, Wilson managed to beat the 14th earl of Home by only 4 seats. I only ever met one person who thought the tories would win any seats at all in that election!
Only 40 years later I have realised was the problem was, CLAUSE 4!
I can’t be the only old geezer who sees the supreme irony of of the so called liberals welcoming comrade sedgemoor. So I’ve been waiting for TB for 50 years, and fervently hope he and his legacy will see me out. If not, well, mortality has its compensations!
Saw the Lib Dem candidate for Leicester West waving enthusiastically from an open-topped bus on a rather chilly afternoon. He was in Leicester South at the time, mind.
Just back from a polling station in Bournemouth East (Con/Lib Dem marginal) - no queues at all. Very disappointing turnout - on my page less than half had been crossed through - very puzzled?
Re:130 The Sun is mainly ‘read’ (if you can possibly call it a newspaper) by utter imbeciles and morons in the main. I am not a Lib Dem but if I was I would be glad that repulsive rag (fit in my humble opinion only for wiping one’s ars* with whilst missing proper toilet paper in a public lavatory) wasn’t backing me. Even as a self-confessed ‘Right-winger’, I would say the Lib Dems must have something going for them if they don’t gain the Sun’s dubious endorsement!
Am running a bridge club in London. Couple from Putney arrived. I asked them if they voted and they said no as one was tory, one labour so they decided not to bother and came for a game here instead.
143. Well, as Lord Salibury (The multiple tory PM) said. “we are the stupid party.”
170 - that’s hilarious but I’ve thought the same myself. If my other half voted the opposite I’m not sure I’d bother!
I’ve got money on a low turnout - starting to feel hopeful from these comments!
Latest rumours for what it’s worth
Wait for it……………………………..
Monster raving Looney Party are polling more than anyone so reports from a very informed source tell me
169. Your post could pass for a Sun feature writers test piece.
If the exit polls are published at 10.01, how do they capture the late, late voters? Surely a methodological bias? Also how will they allow for postal votes?
169 - morons still have votes though…
Someone told me today that, in Sweden, you have to be educated to a certain level before you get a vote - that can’t be true, can it? Can’t see the European Commission allowing that… (fans of democracy that they are)
Re. 118, class hatred? Having mixed with some U people at university, I rather like them. I also thoroughly enjoy mocking chavs, all the more so when the po-faced Johann Hari tells me I should not.
Talking of the Indy, I thought today’s front page was just about the worst ever. In fact, the only decent Indy front page in recent memory was last Saturday’s, with the John Curtice attack on Labour’s ‘1 in 10′ argument.
Did some knocking up and polling station work today and thought that turnout seems markedly up - at least in Camden for the punters I saw.
On another talkboard, I have read that Labour is very badly behind in both Bury North and Bury South, according to the Labour tellers, and could well lose the seat. I do NOT take this as gospel by any means: I certainly would not be surprised if results took a very different course. But it is a clear indication that the exits on the hour might not be the end of the story, whatever they say.
I’m learning a lot about hummingbirds right now.
154/157. I have no doubt that there’s going to be a recession with house prices down.
There’s been some really shocking lending practises out there like self-certification. If unemployment starts rising, you’ll see the property market slide like in the early 1990s.
This is not a good election to win for Labour.
Labout majority just dropped another few on IG. Admittedly it’s still at 87!
Voting was steady - definitely not brisk, but steady - when I went to vote during the morning rush hour this morning in Westminster. Visiting friends in the New Forest for a results party and in New Forest West at 8 pm it was also steady, but definitely not brisk. Of course, this is the less politically interesting half of the Forest…
PS - I just wondered if Innocent Abroad (a near neighbour) also had a very, very, late delivery of his polling card and some missing election communications (Tories and UKIP in my case).
My son voted in Cheltenham about 7pm, and he said it was busy
182. The buy is 90. I’m surprised there hasn’t been more profit taking. I’m a lab optimist (133 in the comp), but I would have sold by now if I could have made money.
Any idea on a price for the tories to end up as the largest party next election? Short of a split its a near certainty. They will get their act together and become what they were always to some extent, a pragmatic election winning machine. When Gordon Brown becomes PM, I suspect those Tories who deserted for Labour in 97 & 01 will soon go back.
Lib Dems 53? They’re ‘avin’ a larf
Testing…