Which French pollster do you believe?
May 28th, 2005
-
Is there money to be made on the gap narrowing?
Two of the three final polls on the French EU Constitution referendum have shown a slight move back to the YES camp although NO is still firmly ahead. These are the surveys:
TNS-Sofres: Oui 49%, Non 51%
CSA: Oui 48%, Non 52%
Ifop: Oui 44%, Non 56%
Although the overall message is that the treaty is going to be rejected there just might be value in a BUY YES bet in IG Index where the current YES spread is 45-47%. The Spreadfair market which is on the NO percentage has 52.3-54% - so the IG spread is much more towards the NO position than Spreadfair.
The IG buy level is less than the YES percentage in two of the three so if they are right then you could make money if it is higher than 47%.
I do not have any real expertise on French polling but it does seem that the result could be closer than some recent polls have suggested. A smallish buy bet at 47% is worth a gamble which is what I have done.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
I read somewhere (It might have been here!) that the polls in France tend to underestimate the Le Pen vote which means that the bias is towards “Yes”. I think the no vote will be at least 55%
Presumably it depends on whether the polls are just bad at finding LePen voters (whether they admit to it or not), or whether the ‘bias’ is just due to a “shy racist” syndrome. If the latter then the underestimation should presumably not translate through to polling on the EU Constitution.
Certainly the no vote is more solid than the yes. However, the real question is how the don’t knows / don’t cares divide up. They are still a good 8-10% of the electorate.
good luck to the yes campaign……i want Great Britain to be the nation that says non! Cynical domino-effect (most pro-euro nations voting 1st thus creating momentum) which Blair meant to help make his case is however already in tatters…
If it does get to a British vote and Blair is still PM I would bet that the outcome would be a YES. He is the master of elections, Europe is one of the things he “believes” in, and he would want to end the UK part of his career. with a triumph against all adversity. This would secure his place in history.
5.at least in a referenfum he couldn’t use the “don’t let the tories in” strategy.
@
No, that’s no-longer true. It used to be the case because people wouldn’t admit they voted Le Pen. They they corrected the data to allow for that. Now the trend is that they OVER estimate for him. Many people say they will vote for him, then don’t.
@1 sorry
5. Mr Smithson i don’t know, i can see GB doing what Sarkozy has done to Chrirac and let him go forward without support to carry the can. I was also surprised by the large number of Liberal Democrat Voters opposed to it in the latest poll. Is it true Oaten is saying it may not be wise especially soutyh of the Danelaw to be quite so Slavishly Pro-EU? Vis Menzies Campbell’s and Vicent Cable’s letter to the Times disavowing the Liberal Democrat Leaser in the European Parliament.
Six. Andrea very intersting you don’t any Franch Voters to give us a French perspectivea do youa?
9.”you don’t any Franch Voters to give us a French perspectivea do youa? ”
there’s Chris who usually posts here. He posted some interesting posts about the situation in France in previous topics.
9.”you don’t any Franch Voters to give us a French perspectivea do youa? ”
there’s Chris (from Paris) who usually posts here. He posted some interesting posts about the situa tion in France in previous topics.
9.”you don’t any Franch Voters to give us a French perspectivea do youa? ”
there’s Chris (from Paris) who usually posts here. He posted some interesting posts about the situation in France.
I just did :p
You don’t seem to have read it.
11.”I just did :p
You don’t seem to have read it. ”
sorry, I didn’t knwo you were French.
I suspect it will be closer than the polls suggest although it appears at this stage that ‘non’ will win.
If that is the case, Blair can use it as an excuse to not hold the referendum here - he knows he cannot win. For once it looks like France will make the right call.
15,”I suspect it will be closer than the polls suggest although it appears at this stage that ‘non’ will win.”
one poll has a 51/49 split and another one a 52/48. I think that the polls are already suggesting something close.
Yes has a little momentum at present. Don´t rule it out. I would be surprised if the final result showed a Non win by as much as 2%.
I’ve taken the advice and bought Yes at 47%. I guess it all depends whether there are more “shy yeses” than “shy noes”.
legion goats Juno occurrence Keats?forerunners reformation
heel negotiated besieging widened widely Wilhelm panelists