UK Spread-betters put their money on NON by 9%
May 29th, 2005
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The Balance of Money prediction on the French Referendum: NON 54.5 % OUI 45.5%
Because French law bans opinion polls on election day and the day before gamblers are having to rely on the surveys that were published on Friday. And even though two of these showed a weakening in the NON position the mood of UK gamblers is to put their money on the treaty being rejected by quite a big margin.
IG Index has the current YES spread at 45-47%. The Spreadfair market which is on the NO percentage has 53.6-55.5%.
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This once again underlines one of our betting market theories - that as we get closer to the resolution of a political market the pool of political punters gets diluted by general gamblers who push up the spread on the favourite. This happened in a big way at the General Election where those who were buying Labour seats on May 4th and 5th lost a lot of money.
With the poll margin getting closer on Friday we think that today’s result will be much closer than the spread-markets are predicting and there’s a good chance of a profit betting against the NO percentage.
Mike Smithson
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Just a curiosity, but will the Nouvelle Caledonie and Polynesie start to count the votes immediatly after the close of the polls or do they have to wait until the polls are closed in France too?
The campaign against change is always easier to get public opinion agitated about - it is easier to get worked up about the potential dangers or risks of change than to get people worked up about the possible benefits of change. The status quo option usually contains less perceived dangers - hence the reason UKpoliticians offered the British people a referundum on staying in the EEC as opposed to joining it in the first place… So the french non-campaign has a better chance of getting waveres to come out at the last moment and cast their vote aginst change.
Against this is the fact that the non-campaign is perceived as the more patriotic and ‘popular’ position, and may lead to waverers and the less convinced members of the public responding ‘non’ when asked by pollsters, in much the way that Brit polls tend to return lrger Labour support than in reality.
The result could be incredibly close tonight, and the yes campaign could actually take it - imho.
Turnout is up (compared to the refereundum about Maastricht )in some Outre-mer departments:
Martinique: 28.37 (in 1992 24,4%)
Guadeloupe: 22.21% (16.66%)
Guyane: 23.15% (18.77%)
Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon: 39.13% (9.59 in 1992)
Sorry off this topic but no suitable one to post this on . Any comments on this article in Sunday Times by a US neocon http://www.timesonline.co.uk/newspaper/0,,176-1632106,00.html in particular his argument that Conservatives should be cutting tax rates without any need to cut spending in tandem . It strikes me that any such proposal by Labour or Lib Dem would have been roundly attacked as irresponsible by British Conservatives .
Early reports (France proper, not the Dom-Toms) say turnout high; several points up on Maastricht at midday (25% to 22%, I think I heard).
I would have thought that ought to be a good sign for the “Non”.
5. yes, It’s up.
At midday the turnout was at 25.08% (in 1992 it was 20.39%)
answer to andrea about the polynesia and caledonia count
as a Frenchman , and some years before assistant in the counting report , i can tell you that the normal way , here , is to count the votes immediately after the close of the polls and not to wait for the last voting offices ( which are usually Paris ) to do it ; I did it for presidential election ; The results are counted in public and phoned to the inner Ministry , This one doesn’t reveal them to the press or TV before total polls close , and the newspapers cannot publish any result before that
friendly yours
pascal Robin
7. Thanks.
what time do you think we will know the result
9. At the close of the last polls (10 pm French time) there will be an exit poll.
At 22h00 french hour exactly , they give you an “estimation” this is not a poll , this is a real count from the first thousands of votes of some earlier closed voting offices , chosen to be significant of the general population ( socially , ages , regions ,etc…) and usually voting like the final results ,according to former elections ;
In case ,let’s say of result superior to 51 % or inferior to 49% , you can say the definitive is known , and further in the evening, they ” refine” the extimations , meaning the official results are known only late in the night . but , you know , the first estimation at 22 00 paris time is enough , it’s over in case of difference superior to 1%
pascal robin
11.”At 22h00 french hour exactly , they give you an “estimation” this is not a poll ”
so it’s not a poll, but based on real votes. Now I can finally understand why it’s usually so accurate.
yes , andrea , i see 2 advantages
1) there is no more ” i still hesitate ” category
2) people can no more hide or cheat their votes , like sometime they do for let’s say , some non politically correct considered options !
Turnout at 19h00: 66.24% (up compared to 1992 Maastricht referendum)
Sorry to place it in the French referendum outlet, but this is breaking news
Liberal Democrat MP Patsy Calton has died following a long battle
with cancer aged 56.
The Cheadle MP presided over the most marginal seat in the UK until
she was returned to Parliament on 5 May with a greatly increased
majority.
She was last seen at Westminster on Tuesday when she arrived in a
wheelchair to take her oath.
Party leader Charles Kennedy described Ms Calton as a “spirited and
courageous” politician.
He said: “I wish to extend my most profound sympathies and
condolences to the family and friends of the late Patsy Calton
following her death.
“In particular all our thoughts are with her husband Clive and their
children.
“Patsy was a spirited and courageous Member of Parliament, and
nowhere was that spirit and commitment more evident than in the way
she continued to represent Cheadle throughout the recurrence of her
illness during the general election campaign, and most movingly when
only last week she took her oath in the House of Commons.
“Despite her desperate illness, her determination shone through.
“Cheadle has lost a wonderful constituency MP and the Liberal
Democrats have lost a fine representative of our cause.”
Ms Calton won her seat with a majority of about 4,000 despite
defeated Conservative MP Stephen Day trying to win it back.
She was unable to attend the count at Stockport Town Hall due to
cancer treatment.
It’s been mentioned on the other thread, Harry.
TSR (Télévision Suisse Romande)reported ‘Non’ at 51% according to first estimates (see news ticker on their website). Well within moe and when reported there were still 30 minutes left to vote in the country and 2 hrs 30 minutes left in Paris and Lyon. ‘Non’ winning by 9% looks unlikely.
17. they reported it in their web site too. They’re referring to “estimations de sources non officielles”
Don’t you just love these moments when nobody knows? What does the high turnout mean? What information are the “non official” sources basing their comments on?
Re 17. Now they are reporting ‘non’ at 56% ! Turnout 82.5%. “En direct France. CHIFFRES - Les premières estimations laissent entendre un non assez ferme à 56%.”
My French is pretty well non existent so what does this mean (culled from the Swiss TV website):
CHIFFRES - Les premières estimations laissent entendre un non assez ferme à 56% à la Constitution européenne.
Alastair: Thanks. I’d hoped that’s what it said
. We shall see in about 40 mins.
There were accurate rumours of Le Pen’s second place in the first round of the Presidential elections a couple of hours before the polls closed. The rumours could be coming this time, as last time, from the exit polls whose findings are calculated as they go along. We’ll soon find out!
The Betfair screen is good to watch at these moment. It’s still 1/8 on NON - a slight shift in the past ten minutes
BBC saying that the Socialist Party has accepted the victory of the non camp. French TV showing jubilant Communist and Socialist non supporters. I don’t think there’s much doubt now.
25. Italian press is reporting the same thing.
55-45 ITS NO
le “non” between 54.5% and 55.6%
Main UK betting reaction has been a sharp tightening in the price on Ken Clarke for the Tory leadership.
It is strange that even after the exit polls showa no vote by 55 % that the BBC still clings to the idea that the no vote is supported by a bunch of extremists on the far spectrum of politics . It may seem like this inside the BBC but the reality is 55 % seem to have voted agiast the constitution - the following is off the BBC web site tonight “Those who rejected the treaty included Communists, various left-wing groups, dissident socialists and far-right parties ” . I despair for the coverage of a UK referendum if we ever get to it -
30. couldn’t agree more…time for another ‘independent’ report on bbc bias me thinks….if only us dumb euro-sceptics would think about things we would be in lovely euro-paradise-land.
It is strange that even after the exit polls showa no vote by 55 % that the BBC still clings to the idea that the no vote is supported by a bunch of extremists on the far spectrum of politics
Well it’s supported by the French…
32 - Indeed. Almost makes me want to do the opposite, but I think I can resist.
Looks as if the margin might be even larger than the exit poll. This from Associated Press:
“…With about 83 percent of the votes counted, the referendum was rejected by 57.26 percent of voters, the Interior Ministry said. The treaty was supported by 42.74 percent, the ministry said”.
With about 83 percent of the votes counted, the referendum was rejected by 57.26 percent of voters, the Interior Ministry said. The treaty was supported by 42.74 percent, the ministry said.
33.”Indeed. Almost makes me want to do the opposite, but I think I can resist”
if you see Sky News, they continue to show the Communists cheering and singing in the Bastille square.
35 - I know. Offputting, isn’t it? But, politics does make for strange bedfellows.
36. UK people must be shocked to see all these communists…
37. Aye, when we only have Sid and Doris Leninspart, and they’re well past singing Avanti Popolo in Trafalagar Square
Although I’m no Euro-sceptic, I’m actually quite pleased with this result. Any referendum in Britain can be safely put on the back burner and we’ll just jog on with the status quo. As the GE showed, Europe soon becomes a non-issue if it’s not in the headlines. Blair may be personally disappointed but in British political terms the result will satisfy Labour and the Lib Dems far more than the Tories.
I suspect that now its been killed off the constitution will take on the same sort of nostalgia as is associated with William Hague and Michael Portillo. In otherwords, unpopular whilst they were around but appreciated in retrospect.
39 - In case you hadn’t noticed we’ve got the EU Presidency next year. Unless the British Government goes in for a policy of masterly inactivity and cancels all meetings (not really possible considering the mess that’s got to be sorted out) they’ll be hard pressed to keep it out of the headlines. Blair will have to make statements to the Commons every few weeks for a start. And it’s hardly a good starting point for him to use the presidency to promote a “reform agenda” as a crowning glory for his premiership. I don’t think an angry France will be particularly willing recipients of any British led “reform agendas”.
34 The results so far don’t include Paris and Lyon which are likely to be somewhat more pro oui so the margin may narrow a bit from 57-43.
On another point Barnier has just said that he can’t see how France can be asked to vote again when they have just expressed themselves so clearly. That means the Treaty is dead. He was also dismissive of the idea of renegotiating the Treaty. Then he said that Europe would attend the results of the ratification in other countries and then take stock. If he seriously thinks Blair will have a referendum and get hammered just to save Chirac’s face, he must be joking. The best news is that the ghastly Schroeder will be gone in September and Chirac will follow in early 2007. Roll on Angela Merkel and Nicholas Sarkozy.
30 - Technically of course what the BBC said is true but on balance I agree with stodge that it will secretly quite please the Labour government .
38. John, I think that the communist vote was up at this election: something like 200 more communists in UK, but still a long way before the revolution.
41. Brown said that UK should promote during its presidency labour market reforms already made by UK. I’m sure France won’t like it.
Alex - we’ve got it this year, starting on 1 July…TB’s already made it clear he wants to use it for a reform agenda, whatever. Likely to be a lot of grandstanding between him and Chirac. The big battles will be over the working time opt-out (likely to be soon) and the budget/CAP reform.
42.”Roll on Angela Merkel and Nicholas Sarkozy. ”
I wouldn’t rule out the socialists so early in France for 2007.
46. Which Socialists? Nearly 60% defied Hollande and co but I can’t imagine Fabius reuniting them. They’re in a terrible mess. Still I agree they’re not out of it. I was just expressing my personal preference. The Tories have a real opportunity to forge new alliances with the French and German Right over the next couple of years. I hope they take it.
Sarkozy level-pegs in popularity with the most popular socialists (ratings just under 50%). But the socialists are ahead in party popularity terms.
The result has interesting consequences for British politics. For one it allows Ken Clarke to run and get beaten again for the Tory leadership. As for the Tories in general, it is probably a good result. A referendum on the constitution would carry with it the strong risk that UKIP could gain serious support amongst the electorate as their profile would rise in the long debate over the constitution. It would also expose splits in the party. The French NO also acts as the end of Dr Fox’s leadership hopes, who needed the chance of a referendum to build his reputation and profile up amongst the party members and MP’s.
As for labour and TB, it is far preferrable to have meetings in the EU to thrash out the matter, than have to put to the British people. One area in which TB remains a consumate spinner is European matters, where he can generate favorable headlines over clashes with Chirac, as a division from the real matters at hand. Also a referendum on the constitution would expose serious divisions in the labour party.
As for the Lib Dems, the result is also a good one. A referendum on the Constitution, would probably expose some splits in the party, and more importantly associate them strongly with the pro-European argument, something they seek to strongly play down in most areas.
47.”Which Socialists? Nearly 60% defied Hollande and co but I can’t imagine Fabius reuniting them. They’re in a terrible mess. ”
yes, but there is still almost 2 years. Too early to rule them out. And UMP could be in a mess too with the Sarkozy/Chirac rivality.
Maybe the French will come back to a “co-habitation”
Sarkozy has increased the UMP’s membership by a third since he took over as head…I don’t see a way out of this for Chirac (or his chosen candidate) although he will of course try his damnednest.
Re. the Socialists - neither Fabius nor Hollande is particularly popular, and this in a poll taken well into the referendum campaign. It would probably require a head of steam to build up behind another candidate, but 3 years after 2002 they stil haven’t resolved their internal splits.
Tabman @ 41. I can honestly say that I will never appreciate Michael Howard in retrospect. I think that the Tories must be secretly gutted about this. An election (of sorts) was looming where they could give Blair a real kicking (no one counts the council elections) and he manages to wriggle out again - and all because of the French as well. Could it get much worse for the blue team?
52,”he manages to wriggle out again - and all because of the French as well”
If only Chirac would have said during the campaign “vote oui to put Blair in troubles….”….
51.Valerie, who is the most popoular socialists now according to polls? jack Lang? Strauss Khan (probably wrong spelling)?
Yes Andrea. If they had hired Lynton Crosby they would have thought of it - “Send a message to Blair - wipe the smirk off his face” would have been a great slogan and ironic seeing as the left ‘non’s’ were against the constitution mainly because it was too ‘Anglo-Saxon’. Ah retrospect - such a wonderful tonic
54 - Bernard Kouchner (but he is with the UN), Jack Lang, Bertrand Delanoe and Segolene Royale (was a figurehead in the regional elections) - in this poll, anyway (it was a TNS Sofres one)
56. Thanks. I don’t know who Bernard Kouchner is. Is Segolene Royale Hollande’s partner/wife? If I recall well she won in Raffarin’s region.
57. you’re right - I knew she was married to someone. She seems to be the more powerful half of that power couple…
I’ve always wondered why they call themselves TNS Sofres in France, seeing as the ‘S’ in TNS stands for Sofres. Not very enlightening comment on the French socialists or anything else - sorry
So - has France atoned for its appalling surrender in 1940 with this vote? Or has it assured that Tone can lead Labour into the 4th term in 2010 now that there will be no referendum in Britain?!
The final result is 54.87 for the non and 45,13 for the oui.
Here’s a map of the result:
http://www.lemonde.fr/web/vi/0,47-0@2-631760,54-655042@51-655472,0.html
Thanks Andrea for keeping us all up to date over the past 24 hours.
63- By the way Raffarin is just out of the Elysee palace,a new PM will probably be annouced this afternoon (and the government tomorrow).
48- Sarkozy is more popular than his party. But that will help the right in 2007 : as the presidential election will take place before the general election, he can be elected and then ask the country to give him a majority.
This worked very well in 2002 : the left would have routed the right in a general election before the presidential election (according to the polls), but suffered a massive defeat after a short campaign on the only message from Chirac being “stop to cohabitation, let’s have a workable majority.”
49. I disagree, Andrew - I don’t think it’s a good result for the Tories. It leaves them defending the status quo. Any future problem with the EU can be spun by the pro-Euro lobby as due to not having a constitution.
64. Who will be the new PM? De Villepen?
Why doesn’t Chirac give the job to Sarkozy? I think that being PM will help to bring down his popularity ratings (at least a bit).
66. He may do if that’s the only to carry on his immunity or even get a Presidential Pardon from his successor as la last resort ‘a la Nixon-Ford. But such is his hatred of Sarkozy i would not rule him running again if only to split te Right Wing Vote anmd stop Nicholas Sarkozy, a manb he once thought would be his Son-In-Law.
66- Villepin is the favourite but his nomination would start an all-out war between the Chirac clan (or what’s left of it) and Sarkozy’s…
Chirac must be tempted to name Sarkozy to put the burden of daily problems on him. But he knows that Sarkozy would only accept to rule alone, refusing any order from the Elysée. Naming Sarkozy would be a quiet way to resign…
67- I don’t think Chirac can expect any shielding from his judicial trouble by sarkozy, especially after chirac’s cronies fuelled all the rumors of the problems between Sarkozy and his wife… Sarkozy is ruthless and Chirac knows it…
Besides if Chirac wer to run in 2007, he cannot expect to win, aged 75 and universally hated, even (and sometimes especially) by right-wing voters.
I think a chirac candidacy would not stop Sarkozy getting 1 of the 2 qualifying spots for the secon-round matchup. And no socialist seems to have a chance against him…
69. Chris G - whom do you think S. would most likely be up against (on the left I mean) or is it way too early to tell?
sorry - I meant to ask Chris from Paris, not Chris G…
also cheers re. 64.
With a few other MPs, I spent an hour with de Villepin in the run-up to the Iraq war, discussing whether there was any possibility of compromise in the Security Council (the answer, essentially, was “no”). Fascinating man, in the grand tradition of sparkling French intellectuals - we don’t have anyone in British politics remotely similar (I don’t mean “as good” - it’s simply a type we don’t do over here).
There was an interesting graphic in the Times this morning, showing which parts of France voted for/against the Constitution.
All the big cities (with the exception of Marseilles) voted in favour of the Constitution, and all of the rural and small town Departments (apart from Strasbourg, Brittany, and the Overseas Departments) voted against.
73. You could see a similar graphic linked in my post @61.
An interesting breakdown from IPSOS. It does indeed confirm that the key shifts, compared to the Maastrict referendum, were among Socialist and Green Voters (in favour of Non) and Centre Right voters (in favour of Oui).
Voters of the Far Left and Far Right stayed much as they were in 1992.
http://www.ipsos.fr/canalipsos/poll/8074.asp
75. Thanks,interesting info.
Interesting shift (but in the opposite direction) between UMP voters compared to 1992 too.
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