Will the new rules impede the Davis bandwagon?
June 16th, 2005
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The David Davis price tightens to 4/5
Any idea that the new Tory leadership election rules could impact on the Shadow Home Secretary’s so far undeclared canditure for the Tories leadership have been rejected by gamblers who have pushed his price down even further.
The latest odds put Davis in the range of 4/6 to 4/5 and the signs are that this will get tighter. The fact that Tory MPs will get the final say, unilike with IDS last time, has had no impact.
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In spite of the huge range of possible contenders no single person has emerged as a challenger who could take on Davis and the race is starting to look like a foregone conclusion.
The issue now is moving from who will be the next leader to when the change might happen.
A GREAT VALUE TORY LEADERSHIP BET. By far the best price you can get on Davis is in Sporting Index’s BetHILO market. This is a form of spread betting where the winner gets 50 points. Currently the Davis price is 19-22 - so you would get well above evens. But even more interesting from the firm is a spread on the age of the next Tory leader. The current range is 50-51.5 years. David Davis will be 57 in December. David Cameron is 38. A buy bet here would make you a winner if Davis, Malcom Rifkind or Ken Clarke got it. Both these spreads offer great value but the age of the next Tory leader seems to be the best one.
Mike Smithson
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The contest may well end up being fought under the old rules, if the new ones are not agreed by two thirds of the National Convention. It’s a mistake to assume that the vountary party will automatically endorse anything that the party leadership come up with.
To be honest though, I agree that rule changes won’t make much difference to Davis’ chances.
Great tip Mike - I tried to do it and discovered you can’t actually deal with them if you already have a sporting Index account….
I agree he’s a a good bet but a racing certainty? All dpends on the length of the COntest. That’s why Davis’s boys are trying to get it over before the Party Conference. THey know the capacity of that arena for plotting, are they afraid that as vteran plotters themselves, this time the plotting might be against them?
Also the Conference is an outstanding profile raiser for certain Candidates vis David Cameron. David Davis already has profiler, hence Michael Howard’s decision to go after the Party Conference?
Ps why is the ToryGraph saying the two men hate each other?
3 Cameron and Davis or Howard and Davis?
From Robert Shrimsley in todays FT
“Amid criticisms of Michael Howard’s attempts to change to rules for electing the Tory leader and the anger at his array of arcane and complex options, he has come up with five new ideas.
1) Ouija Board. The head of the grass roots party and the chairman of the backbench 1922 committee place their fingers on the plancette until it spells out the name of the new leader.
2) Russian roulette. There are problems with this proposal, not least the handgun ban. Furthermore critics object that this method ends up favouring the least dead option rather than the best candidate. However it may be deployed in the early rounds as away of thinning the field.
3) The hopefuls should fight it out in round of Channel 4’s Scrapheap Challenge, the series in which contestants are required to fashion a functioning model out of an unpromising pile of junk.
4) Candidates are invited to play scissors, paper, stone against each other until a winner emerges
5) Penalty shoot out”
Cameron and Davis! DC is reportedly MH’s Cjoice IF you believe the Press.
Have just copied out Robert Shrimsley’s five new ways of selecting the Tory leader from toadys FT (cant afford the subsciption so had to type it out). And it has got stuck in your spam trap!!
Thursdays FT is actually worth buying for Martin Lukes adventures at a-bglobal.com alone
4. THey had unnames DAvis Source yesterday saying that relations between the two men were “preety awful.” Be great to have your assessment of the post at 9 on the Cheadle Thread.
5, 7 - I can’t comment from a position of knowledge, but you only have to look at the differences in background to speculate that there might be some chippiness from the DD direction towards Cameron’s Etonian origins.
The exact quote:
“Allies of Mr Davis say his relations with Mr Cameron are “pretty awful” and predict that a contest involving the two men will be lively.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/06/14/ntory14.xml
Those “allies” would I suspect be Mr Derek Conway, who himself, loathes David Cameron, rather David Davis himself.
why is the ToryGraph saying the two men hate each other?
Someone on this site the other day said Derek Conway ( a Davis henchman) hated Cameron for some personal reason. Maybe the Telegraph are getting their story twisted? Maybe the unnamed source was Derek Conway?
heh, great minds…
8. Chhers Tabman as our resident Lib Dem Oracle hope you’ll weigh up that post at 9 on the Cheadle thread and give us your Thoughts.
Indeed, Jon, Indeed!
12 - time was when this place was a “Lib Dem love-in … ”
I try and “see facts” (geddit?) but I’m by no means an oracle. John O’Reilly’s “chancer” description is far more accurate. I responded to you on that thread at 180, btw.
12 - He already has once. Can´t he post about something else now?
15 - following the coup by Squadron Leader Willis RAuxUF (an idea he got from Lieutenant Gerry Rawlings), politicalbetting.com has been placed under Martial Law - which is only one transposition error awa from Marital Law, a far harsher environment. Nonetheless I am now restrained from commenting about anything other than the Cheadle Labour Party’s forthcoming by-election campaign, about which I choose to pass no further remarks.
Tabbers, Er, who was I ‘chancing’ about?? Hope I was sober at the time….Oh dear.
16 - [sound of distant cheering at the prospect that he might shut up for once]
17 - from 14th:
“42 and 43, Not long until June 25th when the assembled community chests can judge which of you two chancers will win the second prize of the pb.com beauty competition…
Comment by John O — 14/6/2005 @ 1:04 pm”
From Robert Shrimsley in todays FT
“Amid criticisms of Michael Howard’s attempts to change to rules for electing the Tory leader and the anger at his array of arcane and complex options, he has come up with five new ideas.
1) Ouija Board. The head of the grass roots party and the chairman of the backbench 1922 committee place their fingers on the plancette until it spells out the name of the new leader.
2) Russian roulette. There are problems with this proposal, not least the handgun ban. Furthermore critics object that this method ends up favouring the least dead option rather than the best candidate. However it may be deployed in the early rounds as away of thinning the field.
3) The hopefuls should fight it out in round of Channel 4’s Scr*pheap Challenge, the series in which contestants are required to fashion a functioning model out of an unpromising pile of junk.
4) Candidates are invited to play scissors, paper, stone against each other until a winner emerges
5) Penalty shoot out”
19 , Tabman , John O . I rather feel unable to compete with “Chancer”
Tabman - a inveterate con man and social outsider !! - A Lib Dem pre-requisate some might say !! Just scroll down and look at the pics !!
http://www.murphsplace.com/owen/tv/chancer/chancer.html
Ah yes. thks. And not a Tio Pepe in sight
19 , Tabmam & John O . I fear I am utterly unable to to compete with “Chancer” Tabman new website . What a con man and disreputable outsider , a prerequisite some might say for the Lib Dems . Just scroll down to the pics !!
http://www.murphsplace.com/owen/tv/chancer/chancer.html
My Tarot pack reminds me that we are dealing with the Stupid Party, and that the 1922 Committee is named in honour of a revolt by the Parliamentary Party against a sitting Leader. So (it says): “the Tory MPs pass a vote of “no confidence” in Michael Howard, elect a leader of the Parliamentary Party and tell the national organisation to lump it.
Having a lame duck leader through the Conference season and beyond is simply nuts, isn’t it?”
Anyone care to explain to me where I’ve misread it?
19/20 , Tabman & John . Have you seen “Chancer Tabman’s new site . I simply can’t compete , especially when you scroll to the photos .
http://www.murphsplace.com/owen/tv/chancer/chancer.html
22 - I’m more Peter Vaughan than Clive Owen, but the chance to be close to the fragrant (blonde) Caroline Langrishe would be nice …
Even with MPs having only votes, still think DD wins. Not sure that Cameron can really carry parliamentary party. Does threaten to be messy. Desperately bad news for those of us on non-blue hue!
How is DD bad news? Who ever is chosen they will still have to work with a parliamentary Tory party more interested in making money in the city than helping the cause and a geriatric party in the country.
They need a bit of inspiration - and am pleaed to say none of the candidates have demonstrated an ability to inspire even their own supporters let alone the rest of us.
I didn’t know DD is 57 in December. He looks good for his age and has a full set of hair.
BTW, I don’t find Charles Kennedy very inspiring but he seems to have done pretty well.
In my neck of the woods, the local Lib Dems are significantly older, on average, than the local Conservatives.
Given that it will be DD v GB, I can’t see age being a factor
33 - I don’t think it will either. It would be good for Gordon Brown to have an opponent is (very slightly) older (just because GB is now spring chicken himself).
15Ouch the Sting of your Scorn. I am likwise not on this 24/7, but wanted to clear up that Point as i assumed you hads good info. Never mind no more posts!
36. I don’t see why everyone seems to be obsessed with youth in Parliament. Surely it’s better to get some life experience before entering Parliament and then parliamentary experience before you start taking up senior posts. Tony Blair may have made a far better Prime Minister if he had become leader in his early 50’s rather than early 40’s. A Parliament full of career politicans will end up more out of touch than it is already. As for the Lib Dems, 24 is far too early to become an MP.
Woody - I don’t see why; indeed in our workaholic parliamentary culture 24 is probably a good age. All that stamina and no encumbering family ties to worry about …
Interesting how the pendulum swings back. A few years ago, politics was increasingly looking like a young person’s game. At the next election, only Kennedy will be barely under 50 (unless it is 2010 in which case even he will be over). Davis will be over 60 and Brown mid-50s (and Salmond late 50s if anyone cares). If Kennedy decided not to go on, Hughes and Campbell are both significantly older - Mark Senior may jump in with his “Teather for contrast” argument here!
Woody662 - I think you need variety. Parliament would be poorer if nobody was in their 20s or early 30s, but it would also be poorer if they were all that young.
Isn’t Gordon Brown already in his mid 50s and will be nudging 60 by the time of the next election?
38. Late 20’s early 30’s is OK I suppose but I still believe you need to have worked in the outside world rather than the party for 10 years. All partys do it. George Osbourne never seems to have had a job outside politics.
40 - It seems the way to get to the top. Ditto Gordon Brown and Charles Kennedy.
40 - William Hague was 28 when he was first elected so you could say that is an example in favour of your point of view .
David Steel was 27 when first elected so you could say that is an example agin it .
As an oldie myself , I do not have a great objection to a proportion of MPs being much younger .
Interesting to see that the Lib Dems have serious leadership spats too. Paul Holmes of Chesterfield just been elected chair of the Party ‘against the head’.
Hague began his career at 16 IIRC. 20 years later it seemed to be all over. But…
William Hague worked for McKinseys (Tony Blair’s favourite consultants) before becoming an MP.
@6 That should ruin his chances then !
And far more important, he was my campaign manager (when ‘Political Action Officer in the student Conservative Association) when I was standing in a by-election for Oxford City Council, ooh, back in 1983 I think!!. Bloody good he was too! If only, (if only (: , sigh) the roles had been reversed…
47 - JOhn O I will back you for leader!
How old is Sir Menzies Campbell BTW? He would have made a far better leader than Kennedy.
Ming is 64.
Rik, “To Govern is to Serve”. And you, most Gallant Officer, may serve me a not inconsiderable (oh yes) quantity of snorteroonies on June 25th as I prepare for government. We like this…we like this very much.
48 - I thought they had decided that only MPs could vote in it now, Rik?
52 - Yes the MPs decided that only they can decide - a bit like TB saying only he can vote to decide if he should be PM
52 - the 1922 Committee vote has not changed the rules only the Board and Nat Conventional can do that. Also I can back who I like and campaign for them whether or not an MP! Although since John O is not an MP himself he is somewhat out of the running - lol!
53 - not at all. The MPs have had an indicative vote - it doesnt change the rules in itself.
Rik W, do the MPs think the Party should have members at all?
Sean [57] - I’m sure you remember that Peter Mandelson wanted to abolish Labour Party members
All this talk of party elections reminded me of that wonderful British election that took place on the 13th January . The turnout was 100% and the winning candidate won by a margin unheard of in electoral history. I refer not to the leadership race of Veritus but to another scandalous democratic deficit :
Result : Liberal Democrat Hereditary Peers By-Election
The Earl Glasgow……….4
The Earl of Carlisle……0
Lord Kennett…………..0
Majority………………4
Turnout 100% Swing Russell to Glasgow 100%
Electorate 4 :
Viscount Falkland , Lord Addington , Lord Avebury , Lord Methuen .
The by-election was caused by the death of Lord Russell on 14th October 1994.
They waited an astonishing length of time before filling the vacancy then!
59 , Sean . One wonders if Chris Rennard ran the Earl Glasgow’s campaign - “Glasgow Winning Here” . Just as well he was running for the Westminster Parliament and not Edinburgh , the result might have been slightly different !
That was 2004- Good Bloke Conrad Russell. The Earl of Carlisle may have been hampered by having to campaign from his home in Estonia, where the Marquess of Bristol also has a home…
BTW as the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot at York approaches I can’t help feeling a little sad that my own runner Mr.Tabman had to be withdrawn recently. Although he ran a distant third in the recent General Election Coronation Stakes on the 5th May we were hopeful that he would improve with the run .
Sadly he’s become too frisky recently and the vet advised that he should be gelded . Not that the operation’s made much difference I’m afraid we’ll only get a load of old boll**ks from him now !
59 , Sean . Yes 10 years late , rather like my tip Hurricane Alan !
I see my 22 & 24 that were spammed have surfaced . Not sure why but the shortened 26 got thru . Anyway you’ve all got 3 opportunities to see the new improved Tabman at the link !!
Sorry to go off topic but still topical.
I checked out the Freedom Party and English Democrat election leaflets for South Staffordshire on the net.
I had to laugh at the The Freedom Party’s use of language. For example the opening very long sentence: “Now that Tony Blair is back in Downing Street for four more inglorious years, England has never been in greater need of vocal and effective opposition to the ghastly politically correct New Labour clique, that misrules us, pursuing only the interests of dodgy foreign asset strippers, gang masters, bogus asylum seekers, neo-con warmongers, European bureaucrats and above all the vanity and self-agrandisement of Tony’s cronies in parliament, business and the media.”
Can’t see many people bothering to read it. Their leaflet has far too much writing on it. It is like a national manifesto and doesn’t even mention how well the Freedom Party did in the County elections, coming less than 100 votes of winning a seat. I expected a bar chart showing (falsely) how they were in with a chance of winning.
http://www.freedompartyuk.net/public/partynews/FPDaviesByeElectWeb.pdf
The English Democrats leaflet looks more promising with celebrity Garry Bushell as their candidate. Well laid out with a big St George’s flag on the front like a poster and then on the back a list of gripes in very short paragraphs asking why England hasn’t got its own parliament when Scotland and Wales has, why spending in England is lower, why Scot and Welsh MPs tell England what to do, etc.
The campaigning style makes the case that it is unfair and people aren’t being treated equally is probably attractive to quite a few voters. I wouldn’t be surprised if English Democrats came 4th ahead of the Greens, UKIP and Freedom. At Greenwich and Woolwich, Bushell got 3.4% in the General Election.
http://englishdemocrats.org.uk/images/bushell.pdf
Wonder what effect, if any this proliferation of small parties will have on the main parties at South Staffs. At least Respect, Vanitass and BNP aren’t standing!
“…that misrules us, pursuing only the interests of dodgy foreign asset strippers, gang masters, bogus asylum seekers, neo-con warmongers, European bureaucrats and above all the vanity and self-agrandisement of Tony’s cronies in parliament, business and the media.”
That sounds a bit like a chap who sometimes posts on here…
Book Value - how are acceptances for the Glorious 25th going?
67 - a few more over the week. I think we’re in the upper 20s at the moment. There’s still time to put your name down if you haven’t already: book_value@hotmail.co.uk
57.”I’m sure you remember that Peter Mandelson wanted to abolish Labour Party members ”
why didn’t someone propose to abolish Mandelson? Few will cry: maybe only Carla Powell, but I’m sure she’ll find someone else to discuss shoes with.
Andrea [69], if I run in the first by-election Labour defends in this Parliament as the “Abolish Peter Mandelson candidate” will you be my agent?
70. yes, I’m already ready (but I need a quick lesson about what an agent does).
61 - I thought campaigning wasn’t allowed
71 - they vote for their candidate
Why is Davis apparently a foregone conclusion? He appears to have many enemies with the parliamentary party and it looks like the MPs will be the sole arbiters. Remember what happened to Portillo in 2001 when he was supposedly the red hot favourite. I think Cameron may have a chance, as the least experienced candidate often wins in Tory leadership elections (Thatcher, Major, Hague, IDS).
72 - I’m not sure it’s so much forbidden as considered not quite the done thing.
The Garry Bushell leaflet is identical to the one he put out in Greenwich & Woolwich except where it says “I was once a member of the Labour Party” for us it said “I was once a member of Greenwich Labour Party”.
However he didn’t turn up to any cross party hustings or event during the campaign, including the count.
I don’t think Davis is a fregone conclusion, however as an area officer I am not supposed to make any public comment. However I enjoy reading all your wide speculations
I see Tabman has put together the Lib Dem election team for the Cheadle by-election , he’s the one on the left . A very striking lower region appendage !!
http://www.nerohq.com/emporium/cod.htm
Andrea [71] - ignore Alex, very often an agent isn’t even on the electoral roll in the seat being contested. No, your duties are principally to be wholly and solely legally liable for any breach of electoral law by your candidate and therefore (because obviously the candidate can’t stoop to bribery, unless he’s Chancellor of the Exchequer) to buy all the drinks, which you must put down on the election expenses as something else.
Many people are not cognizant of Jack W’s skills as a crossdresser. Here he is in his dress specially designed for the next PB.C party: http://www.nerohq.com/emporium/seven.htm
79. Ok, I’m ready to be your agent for the “Abolish Peter Mandelson” Party. We only need to find a seat.
Reading the Freedom Party’s manifesto, their policy platform seems pretty much identical to that of the BNP. Just as on the extreme Left, it seems the extreme Right also breeds a plethora of minor parties, to electorally-damaging effect!
82 - yes, I think it was founded by BNP defectors.
80 , AC . Is that AC/DC ? The picture is 15 years old taken at a Conservative Party fundraiser ! You should have seen John Majors outfit ! But that’s a story for my memoires . Since that time and after boob implants I’m now XXX large and require the $399 outfit !!
84.”You should have seen John Majors outfit ”
was it a gift from Edwina Currie?
I note with interest that after my post @ 84 with link ! there wasn’t a post for 55 minutes . You naughty naughty posters….. All been ordering have we ????……At this rate the vice squad and the News Of The World will be in attendance at the PB.Com party . Make sure you take your cameras.
85 , Andrea . No a gift from Harvey Procter !! I’ll say no more.
Hi all, having lurked here for a while I’ve decided to introduce myself. I’m still trying to get to grips with the etiquette, but there seem to be a group of regulars. Perhaps someone will point me to a list of who everyone is? Thanks Nuala.
PS - there will be trouble if we have the vote taken away from us!
Hi Nuala. There’s not a list as such but I’m sure you’ll pick up on the main suspects and their allegiances or lack of them. If you want to put faces to names at the party on Sat 25th June, drop me a line at book_value@hotmail.co.uk.
I take it from your comment you’re a Tory activist - who do you favour as leader?
88 , Nuala . Welcome to our ramblings . Why have you lost your vote ? Are you off to Pentonville (In which case Goodbye) or are you mad , a peer or a Tory party member …………and how do we tell the difference ??
77 - Andy: Quite right. Davis is surely the front runner, but by no means a foregone conclusion. As has been stated before, he has numerous enemies within the Parliamentary Party, the members of which are looking like having the final say in the appointment of the new leader. Being the frontrunner also makes one the target.
Having said that, I believe that David Cameron is the only other potential candidate who would seriously challenge Davis. I’m prepared to accept either as leader but my first choice is Cameron.
89 , Book Value . I suppose I’m one of the “usual suspects” . I haven’t been caught yet though , although I’m expecting an ASBO from Detective Inspector Tabman of Corner of The Yard any day !!!
89, goodness you all have such funny names! Sorry, no offence. I’m not an activist but a concerned member. This looks like a stitch up attempt by the leadership to ensure the succession goes to who they want. It will certainly get people’s backs up. Thanks you for the invitation but I have a prior engagement that weekend.
90, I take it you’re a Labour supporter if you’re so rude about Conservatives. Most people seem to be quite respectful on here from what I’ve read so far, why aren’t you?
Nuala, If you think Jack W is rude (actually, he’s the site’s mascot), wait till his son starts posting again…
94 - John: I haven’t seen you salute anyone’s colours as they’ve been run up the mast yet. Who are you for?
94, he has a son? I’d assumed from the tone of his posts he was a youngster himself.
I’ve been trying to get my head round spread betting, as I only just about understand normal betting. My interest is in politics but there seem to be some knowledgeable people here who also get excited about the odds. Perhaps one of them could give me a quick explanation please?
96 - in spread betting you bet on an outcome which is a number rather than a yes or no. For example, as Mike says in his post, you could ‘buy’ the age of the next Tory leader at 51.5, for £10 a point. Then if Davis won (he’s 56), you’d win (56 - 51.5) x £10 = £45. However if Cameron (who’s 38) won, you’d lose (51.5 - 38) x £10 = £135.
It’s a bit unusual to have spread bets on a leadership race - normally they apply to something you’d naturally measure as a number, e.g. number of seats won by Labour in the General Election.
Does that help?
93 , Nuala . I grovel and prostrate myself humbly before my Conservative betters . Please my lady don’t thrash me again , this humble , sniveling and pathetic voter will not trouble you party again.
Well not quite true , we’ll see who lifts the poison chalice and what he does with it.
97, yes thank you. Rifkind would be my choice.
Alastair, Well, a few weeks back I was a rampant (
) Kuddly Kennite, but that sadly ain’t going to work, is it? So, I’m now more inclined to DD but the (alleged) antics of Conway and Forth are almost calculated to repel. So perhaps the People’s Toff could be the man.
Hey ho. I’m a fully paid up member of the ‘I’m for whatever works’ strand of shameless Tory pragmatism. We don’t understand or care too much for ‘ologies’. Hopefully, whoever succeeds (but please not Liam Fox or Tim Yeo)will be smart enough to sniff the scent of the prevailing winds. Eeeeh, wasn’t that a truly awful sentence?
100 , John . Good God - A pragmatic Consevative , the times they are a changing……….May we have some more sense from you all or John are you sniffing the wind alone ?
100 - of course, you shouldn’t be taking advice from me, but Fox seems reasonably good presentationally. There do seem to be some pretty hardline social conservative views beneath the common-sense EUsceptic Shadow FS exterior, though.
88 - another Tory …
The place is rolling in them! Welcome aboard, and hopefully you’ll get used to our strange ways soon enough. I was going to attempt a spreadbetting explanation but BV’s got in ahead of me there. He’s a bright lad 
…As befits a Tory of high fibre…
Do the tory grandees seriously expect to get away with disenfranchising their party members? Can somebody please post exactly what the changes are expected to be and the chances of them being implemented.
Surely if a leader isn’t popular enough or politically savvy enough to command the support of a majority of party members how will he or she ever expect to win a national election? How can they think that less democracy would make them more electable? If this goes through I would be surprised if it doesn’t result in a reduced membership and fewer local activists. At the first setback the cry will be ‘well we didn’t choose him/her.’
100 - John, as a man with more than a degree of interest in KC’s political career, do you think he’s shot his bolt as it were?
BV…You make my point most effectively.
Steve @ 106: Yes, I rather fear he has, and what’s worse, it’s largely his own bloody fault. Grrr.
103 , Tabman . West Bridgeford’s Sherrif of Nottingham returns , you have a new Maid Marion to play with . Treat her kindly my Lord , we don’t want to see her in your Lib Dem dungeons .
105 - Our last experience with a party leader elected directly by the party base wasn’t exactly a roaring success, was it? I’m in favour on an electoral college or a consultative role for the membership at large, but I don’t think the party membership should have the decisive say in the election of a new leader lest we find ourselves in another IDS situation where the party leader only has the support of 1/3 of his MPs with whom he has to work with everyday. Anyway, the old system of MPs choosing the leader worked pretty well in the past. We did run the country for most of the 20th Century, you know.
108 - why’s that?
109 - no ‘E’ in Bridgford, Jack. I hope you’re (Will) Scarlett in embaressment, or perhaps you don’t give a Friar Tuck …
105, Terry I can assure you its making this lady very annoyed! Just after we have a good result then we get into this introspection.
105 , Lurker Terry . Put simply the MPs don’t trust the membership not to elect a bald right wing loser , in complete contrast to them of course who elected………well right wing bald losers ?!?!?!?!
Nuala, welcome, you will find that the posters on this site can be split into different tribes of which the biggest two are the mainly rich Lib Dems and or mega rich Tories who can post any time of the day or night as they either have super jobs or own companies. The other main one of which I am a member is the down trodden labour voter who can only post late at night, tends to come from the East Midlands and hopes to supplement his income by taking money from the former in betting.
You must have a sense of humour and a dictionary to look up the big words that the former use, they tend to be ex-university types/public school etc unlike the former council estate – working class - salt of the earth type of chap that I am.
108 - Ken Clarke would have been leader long ago if he’d learn to compromise on Europe. I have great respect for the man, but I can’t stomach the thought of being led by someone even more eager to sell us out to Brussels than Blair is! He’s been so intractible on the issue now that he can’t change or moderate his stance at all without looking like a hypocrite and worse, he’s almost as old as I am, which surely rules him out!
I have a good impression of Liam Fox, but I don’t think he’s the man to lead us out of the wilderness - not cuddly enough. Rifkind is out for the same reasons Clarke is - we need someone who isn’t going to have their record in the last Tory government constantly brought up by Labour. This is a ploy they’ve been able to use and get away with for far too long and it’s time we stopped providing them the ammunition for it.
David Cameron’s the man - remember that name.
111 - Oh, for being such a provocative in-yer-face pain on EU issues almost taunting the party. He could have, he should have, won in 2001 but drove many of his supporters to abject despair with his campaign. Yeah, we all admire the Man of Principle…but give the chaps and chapesses a break if you actually want to lead the party! And he should have joined the Shadow Cabinet after Howard’s election.
But even after all that, if there were a ballot of party members (which there won’t) and he was a candidate, who knows where the stubby pencil might alight?
110 - I don’t think that any system of choosing a leader works all the time. Whatever system you adopt you sometimes end up with failure. I have never heard that as a reason to abolish democracy. At least not since Hitler and the Nazis campaigned against the Weimar Republic.
I think under any system Anthony Eden would have been chosen and look how that worked out. When it was just the grandees you had such leaders as Neville Chamberlain and Alec Douglas Hume. The MP’s alone chose William Hague and Michael Howard who have led the party to two of the worse defeats in two centuries. IDS himself was top of the MP’s poll.
Are the party members seriously being told that they can’t be trusted to chose the right person? Don’t you think this will alienate a lot of them?
111 , Tabman . West Bridgeford with an “e” in middle English.
BTW M’lord have you chosen your latest jewel encrusted codpiece , I understand they’re all the rage with the Lib Dem big nobs at court. See the catalogue @ 78.
114 , Vino . Absolute rubbish and I’ll show you my Swiss bank account to prove it.
105 - Given that about half the Parliamentary Party view themselves a leadership material, it’s unsurprising that they believe that they, and they alone, should choose the party leader. In their eyes, the choices they have made since 1990 are evidence of their unerring judgement in this respect.
And it should be immediately obvious that the party membership are to blame for the fact that the MPs were unable to come up with a candidate who commanded the support of more than one third of the Parliamentary party in 2001.
As it happens, I think the leadership election will be fought under the current system, because I think it unlikely that the National Convention will vote in favour of either Michael Howard’s proposal (a non-binding vote in the Convention followed by a vote of MPs) or the 1992 Committee’s proposal (MPs consult with a few drinking pals before voting for the leader).
People tend not to give up powers once they’ve been given them.
I wonder how far Cameron would have gotten if the left leaning media hadn’t started bandying about his and Osbornes names…
114 - Vino, your chip is obscuring your vision yet again … Remind me where David Davis grew up? The public school-types (Blair, Kelly) are all in “Labour” these days … but then again, I think your spritiual home is in the Tories
“Antidisestablishmentarianism”
117 - Firstly, I trust you aren’t casting aspersions on my party with your comparisons to the Nazis. I would take great offence to that.
Secondly, I agree that no system is ever going to get it right all the time, but to be brutally honest about it, the base of the Conservative Party at this point in time is not terribly representative of the country as a whole. We tend to be older, well to do and more socially conservative that the public at large. Our MPs, having to win elections on their constituencies every 4-5 years are required to keep greater touch with the mood of the electorate and I feel are more capable of making a representative choice at this stage. That doesn’t mean we conceal our principles and the things those of us who’ve worked for decades in the Conservative Party to promote, it simply means that we might not be the best placed to select the person to promote those to the wider public.
Thirdly, Ken Clarke came top of the poll of MPs in 2001, not IDS.
118 - Jack W - Tabman is right -no “e” in West Bridgford.
Postal address:
Rushcliffe Borough Council,
Civic Centre,
Pavilion Road,
West Bridgford,
Nottingham
NG2P 5FE.
P.S. what is middle english?
Grrrr… I keep getting o’s where there should be i’s in my postings. People are going to think I went to a comprehensive school if this keeps up!
Vino - what’s your fascination with Rushcliffe BC? Apart from their humungous tax rise which I’m sure as a Broxtowe man (4 LD councillors, huzzah!) you don’t suffer …
People who take a keen interest in politics are, by definition, unrepresentative of the public at large. Those who pursue a full time career in politics are probably even more unrepresentative of the public at large.
It would be an interesting comment on the Conservative Party’s willingness to move into the twenty first century if it were to become the only British political party which does not involve its membership in the selection of its leader.
117/119 Lurker/Sean . Perhaps the Conservatives should go back to the pre 1964 system and let the Grandees pick the leader after several bottles of vintage port at the Carlton Club . You don’t think they would have chosen such dead weight as Hague , IDS and Howard , do you ?
The last time it was done they picked The Earl of Home (qv) and he did a splendid job and almost deprived Wilson of a majority , which few thought was likely at all .
Yes…..let the likes of the Marquis of Lothian choose Michael Ancram as the new leader !!!
121 - Nuala -”Antidisestablishmentarianism ” please don’t wind me up - I can’t find it - only disestablishment - to deprive an organisation of it’s official status.
117 - remember that the Nazis never won an overall majority in the parliament of the Weimar republic in elections. They allied with the conservatives to ban the communists, and with the communists excluded from the parliament, they had an overall majority by themselves and could suppress the rest of the parties - or actually press them to suppress themselves, as they had a choice.
Democracy of course has many flaws, but probably it is the smallest evil.
82 - Yes the Freedom Party is very extreme.
They say they want to “halt immigration” aslylum seekers and multi-cultural “attitiudes.” Aren’t they an offshoot of the Bigotted Nasty Party?
South Staffordshire looks like their powerbase, so if they can’t save their deposit there they won’t anywhere. I hope they are at least 4% short!
Home was a pretty good campaigner. OTOH, we got Balfour, Neville Chamberlin and Anthony Eden under the old system.
BTW, Labour held Brent, Fryent, by 36 votes, down from 300 or so in 2002. On that basis, it is unlikely that they will retain overall control of Brent next year.
122 - No, certainly no aspersions at all. I was just trying to come up with a party which had campaigned to abolish democracy on the grounds that it couldn’t be trusted to work properly. I am well aware of the fact that we owe a great debt to the greatest tory leader of all for doing so much to stop them.
Re Ken, thanks for that. I stand corrected. Do you think then that Ken would have done better than IDS or Howard? I think you would have lost a lot more votes to UKIP and may have done a lot worse.
I see the logic of what you say generally. However this is the age of fast food, the TV zapper etc. If people don’t think they are being listened to there are a wide range of other parties they can join or they can start their own. Political parties are in the consumer age like everybody else. I think the first people a party has to keep happy is the party members. From what you are saying the main problem is not chosing the leader but recruiting party members from a fair cross section of society.
110 et al - The problem is that regardless of the processes involved in selecting the leader, the MPs do have the power to remove or wholly undermine a party leader. See IDS. Given the ambitious nature of MPs, they won’t hesitate to do this, whereas party members are more prone to rally round the flag. Therefore from a practical perspective it would seem better to have a leader selected by the MPs.
129 - Hmmm … now if the Weimar Republic had had FPTP perhaps the Nazis would have been able to operate Strong Government that little bit earlier?
125 -Tabman - I work (not for RBC)in Rushcliffe,in West Brigford actually.Could never understand their attitude to the large plastic dustbins which they were against for a long time.
123 , Vino . Middle English postal address :
Rushclif Burgh Counsill
Civick Center
Pavilione Roade
Wester Bridgeforde
Nottinghamshyre
It is amazing that the Tories are considering disenfrancising their members. Actually no it isn’t - but if you dont trust your members then you deserve what you get.
I can only speak witrh authority on membership of the Liberal Party since 1964 (now Lib Dem) it means lots of begging letters and phone calls and the odd election of a leader. I suspect that membership of the Tories until recently only consisted of the former (not a lot of fun!)
134 , Tabman, quite possibly. The thing with history is, that we can’t know what would have happened, if…
126 - Yes, Sean you are invariably right about ‘political junkies’ being unrepresentative of the people at large, but at least elected politicial junkies have to make an effort and convince their voters every few years that they are in touch with them.
You will note from my first post on this issue that I favour an electoral college or a consultative role for the membership of the party in these matters. Having said that, it is my opinion that the worst possible option is to stick with the model we use now that elected Iain Duncan Smith in 2001. I don’t think the public much care how a party elects it’s leader; what’s important is that we get the right person, and as a long standing member of the Conservative Party, I’m more interested in winning the next election than squabbling over obscure rules that might take away a vote that I never had before 2001 anyway and furthermore, most of my circle of friends who are all party members as well consider it proper that MPs should have the final say as they are the ones who have to work with the leader on a daily basis and make the whole thing go.
136 - Jack W - good one and this middle english is spoken by whom and where?
Hi Nuala - Welcome to the board - Been absent at Bar Billiards match tonight , we lost 3 -2 , I was one of the 3 . No Jack W is not a Conservative , like me he is open to persuasion or bribery lol .
Sean - were there not 2 byelections in Brent tonight - how did the other go .
134 - Or more likely, FPTP in Weimar would have allowed the two strongest democratic constitutionalist parties, the Social Democrats and the Catholic Centre Party to form strong majority governments, rather than the endless coalitions from the 10 plus parties represented in the Reichstag, and thus possibly have prevented the Nazis in the first place!
132 - Difficult to say. I think KC has a certain star quality and appeal with the public that IDS and Howard didn’t have, but he’s on the wrong side of most of the party on Europe. We may have won more centrist votes under Clarke while seeing UKIP shear off our entire right/eurosceptic flank and leaving us no further ahead at all.
I don’t have the result from Preston, but the indications were that it would be Conservative hold.
A.H. Matlock - that’s fine in theory. Unfortunately, our MPs haven’t got it right since 1975.
142 - Exactly. One of the biggest advantages to FPTP has always been that it keeps the extremes out.
Though to be fair, they did the right thing in uniting behind MH in 2003. So they’ve got it right twice in the past 30 years.
135 - really? Cavorting with the enemy in our bourgeoisie enclave?
139 - A.H.M - I have no interest in the Tory leadership race (apart from the betting angle) but as a labour supporter the one candidate who would scare me is David Davis because I find him easy to listen to,he has charm and appears to have reasonable views on most topics (apart from ID cards).
142 - actually, both the communists and the nazis were bigger parties than the Centre in three last GEs (1930, 1932 and 1932) of Weimar Republic, and in the last two GEs the Nazis were the biggest party, passing the SPD.
139 - A.H.M - I have no interest in the Tory leadership race (apart from the betting angle) but as a labour supporter the one candidate who would scare me is David Davis because I find him easy to listen to,he has charm and appears to have reasonable views on most topics (apart from ID cards).
144 - Naturally, they were wrong to have dumped Margaret in 1990, but once that was done and the time came to get on with it they chose the best of the lot they had to choose from after her. Major did go on to win the 1992 election against all odds. I think it’s slightly unfair to say they haven’t gotten it right at all since 1975.
147 - someone has to go up the chimneys of the toffs houses,guv.
145 - Then we have countries in Scandinavia and Benelux, which have had PR since about WWI, but never raised the extremes in power. The fact that many of them were occupied by a country ruled by extremists wasn’t caused of their electoral systems.
148 - Yes, but I was thinking about the 1920s when FPTP might (emphasis on might) have provided more stable governments better able to confront the impact on Germany after the Wall Street crash.
140 , Vino . Middle English is spoken by that perculiar band of Lib Dems who pine plantively for the days of landslide Liberal government. The affliction dates back to an outbreak around 1906 . There is no known cure and sufferers may been seen around rural Nottinghamsire wearing pixie boots , frilly shirts , luxuriant codpieces and waiving copies of the 1929 “Yellow Book” and placards stating woefully “Winning Here” .
152 - probably the economical conditions in Germany after WWI had more to do with the rise of extremists than the electoral system.
In Russia any kind of electoral system wouldn’t have helped to prevent the rise of extremists, because as the communists didn’t get the power in democratic elections, they just made a coup d’état. I recall there actually was a GE around the same time than the October Revolution, but as the communists came only in the second place, Lenin decided to ignore the results, and the duma was never called together.
152 - The Electoral System obviously wasn’t the cause of the rise of the Nazis in Weimar Germany, but it did provide them with the means of gaining a controlling influence over the country, did it not?
145 - except between 1979 - 97 …
156 - Bunkum and Balderdash.
155 - the electoral system isn’t an obstacle for extremists. If they can win the majority, or at least the status of the biggest party (Germany, Italy), good, if they can’t, they’ll try to get the power by other means (Russia, Spain).
158 - Fine, let them try. We don’t need an electoral system that aids and abets them.
159 - the point is, that PR isn’t such a system. The fact that the extremists haven’t been in power in Britain doesn’t mean that is because of the FPTP. The extremists haven’t been voted into the government in Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium… and none of these parties have FPTP. I would add Switzerland, but because their exceptional system, where the four biggest parties are all represented in the government, one party which could be classified as extremist, has been in the government for decades. Obviously it hasn’t been able to cause too much trouble, though, as most laws are accepted in referendums.
Correction: “and none of these parties have FPTP” should be : “and none of these countries have FPTP”. It is my time to go to bed, obviously.
This is bollocks - the debate is not about FPTP or ‘PR’ - there is no such electoral system as ‘PR’.
Interestingly the Conservative Party website reported that the party was now in favour of electoral reform but ‘not PR’.
I’m in favour of a system that allows the voter most control over their local representatives - so no Blairite lists or Israeli national ‘beard’ system (the longer your Rabbi’s beard the more seats you win). The alternative or single transferable vote will do for me - neither of which are proportional - both of which would benefit the Tories in Britain, while keeping constituency links and all the other things that are important to the British political system.
162 - What’s Bollocks is when you Lib Dems proclaim to favour change in the electoral system to ‘allow voters the most control over their local representatives.’ You Lib Dems are in favour of electoral reform for one reason and for one reason only - you think you’re going to be the chief beneficiaries of the change. I can’t say that I blame you, knowing that you stand a cat’s chance in h*ll of winning under FPTP, but let’s be honest about our motives here, shall we?
I notice that since our discussion about Tabman’s codpiece @ 78 there’s been an awful lot of boll**ks flying about . May I suggest that some posters invest in the former item so as to avoid displaying the latter to members of a sensitive disposition.
164-”I’m in favour of a system that allows the voter most control over their local representatives - so no Blairite lists ”
A PR with open lists would solve the problem of “blairite lists”. The candidates will not be elected by the order their appear on the lis