Will Blair outlast Chirac?
June 18th, 2005
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What does the Euro-spat do for the Brown succession?
With the leaders of the EU nations returning to their home countries after the deadlock in Brussels there’s speculation this morning that the latest Euro-mess could mean that Tony Blair will have to stay in office longer.
According to Andrew Grice in the Independent today ….some Blairites are talking about their man outlasting M. Chirac, who faces re-election in 2007, as well as Mr Schröder, who seems destined for electoral defeat this September. He notes as well that “the economic and political problems facing M. Chirac and the German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder make Mr Blair look like the relatively strong man of Europe”.
Whether this is right there’s little doubt that the abandonment of the UK Euro referendum has taken away the major political event that would have been a convenient moment for Blair to step down.
A good bet in all of this is BetHiLo’s spread on the length of Tony Blair’s third term. The current price is 19-21 months which means that a buy bet would start producing profits in March 2007. This is out of line with the Spreadfair market on the number of weeks that the third term will last. This has 108-117 weeks which takes us into the summer of 2007.
The market from Sporting Index’s off-shoot, BetHiLo, looks like the one to be in but be quick. On Thursday we suggested going for their “Age of the next Tory leader” spread as a cost effective way of backing David David and covering yourself if Clarke or Rifkind made it. The then spread was 50-51.5 years - it is now 51-52.5 years. The firm’s price on David Davis also moved sharply after we said it was great value and you can get out now at a big profit.
Mike Smithson
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FWIW, the 2 most important Italian newspapers are blaming Blair in their headlines for the mess in Europe.
Junker is refusing to go to listen Blair’s speech next week (and jornalists cheered him when he said this).
Andrea, I’m in no way a fan of Blair’s and his believe that his willingness to even consider putting the rebate back on the table
will come back to haunt him.
Yesterday was however a magnificent day for him.
He called Chirac’s bluff and raised it and will have won a large
number of brownie points both at home and on the continent for having done so.
The fact that Junker (who !!!!) has thrown his dummy out of the pram
and is going to ‘take his revenge’by not listening to Blair’s speech
is just so risible it only adds to Blairs gains.
Apparently no one listens to his (Junker’s) advice so he isn’t going to pass any on to Blair at the handover either…
What a hoot !
“Apparently no one listens to his (Junker’s) advice ”
Apparently British media was not present at Junker (it’s the Luxembourg PM) press conference. They all were to Blair’s one. The journalists from other European countries were pretty supportive and an Italian journalist even asked him if it’s not better for EU to throw UK out.
btw, if France will have to renounce all the money got for agricoulture, UK should put the rebate on the table.
Domestically at home this has enhanced Blair.
Standing up to Chirac and schroeder, goes down well.
Blair knows thes two are busted flushes and their replacements are more enclined to see his vision of europe, so compromise after they have gone is possible.
2. Join the club! As one of the founder members of the ‘WeAllDislikeBlair’ Society, charter commencing at one minute past midnight on 2nd May 1997, this is the first time I have been able to state with any conviction that Tony has done well! By emulating the Blessed Margaret, and actually saying, “No”, he is doing Britain, and indeed Europe, a greater service than all the previous treaties slammed together have managed to do! Now all we have to see is him holding his nerve, keeping his powder dry and letting the others make the overtures until he gets what he wants, which is a sensible re-negotiation of the CAP! Then he can slap the rebate on the table, because it possibly won’t matter that much, because we would all be paying less!
3. Andrea are your newspapers not a little jealous that with all respect the Italian Economy appears to be in the dire straits ours was twenty five years ago? Some Chap from the Northern League was on our telly the other night saying it could hardly be any more dire for Italian Manufacturing now the traditional Escape rout Devaluation is closed offa. Blair is being very smart, since his Pro-European dream is now ashes pickig up MAggie’s handbag is the smartest thing he could have done at home. I’d like to see how even the most venomus antr-brit on the continent would like the idea of trading the fourth largest economy in the world, europe’s strongest military power and one of the largest net contributors even post rebate for er well mighty romsania and albania! Besides Blair knows very well Schroeder will be out by the end of the year, and Chirac diminishes all the time now it is inconceivable he will get a third term, and to make it worse for him he moight be replaced by his nemesis Sarkozy.
Ps Your Elkections are next year aren’t they? Perhaps you could agree with Mr Smithson to post a few artivcles on here for the benefit of tjhose of us unwisely tempted to bet opn the result.
6.” Andrea are your newspapers not a little jealous that with all respect the Italian Economy appears to be in the dire straits ours was twenty five years ago?”
They don’t usually blame Blair for our bad economy (I didn’t check communists newspapers; they could have done it considering that they usually portray Blair like an evil monster.).
“Some Chap from the Northern League was on our telly the other night ”
Why did they let someone from the Northern League going on foreign TV channels like we don’t already have a bad reputation?
” Your Elkections are next year aren’t they?”
It’ll be probably close. The centre-left coalition is so stupid that they threw away the lead they have and they let Berlusconi recover and solve (for the moment) his internal problems.
It will be funny when the 2 coalitions will start to talk about candidates and safe seats. Now that Communist Refondation is back in the centre-left coalition, some parties will have to renounce to some seats to make room for some communists candidates. I don’t see the communists asking for less than 30 seats.
7. No but it might explain questions like Chucking us out the EU, what you think of the trade argument does even the most rabid anti-brit want to swap us for Albania/Romania/Bulgaria? I don’t know much about your Politics but wjoever this CHap from the Norhern League was must have been one of their better faces, as he was surprisingly eloquent.
As for your Elections i just have afeeling Berlusconi will do it, from what i understand Prodi is anotrher John Kerry with Zero Charisma, and a habit of tying himself up in knots. Like Bush, Berlusconi must be thankful for his Opponents. Veltroni would seem a much bterr Candidatea.
3 - Andrea: Alright then. You’ve been a contributor to this forum for some months now, and you’ve gotten to interact with Britons from all walks of life and from every political position, and you’ve seen how our political system works. What do you really think of this issue as an outsider looking in?
Should Britain really have to give up our hard won rebate that was put in place to solve an unfair fiscal imbalance that still exists, while France and Germany continue to refuse even to consider negotiating reform on the CAP which is heavily biased in favour of the French and which costs billions of Sterling more than the rebate ever has?
If memory serves, even with the rebate taken into account the UK has still paid about £15 billion more into the EU over the last ten years than the French have. What #%@%!&* right do they have to criticise us for greed? As for Schroeder - he’ll be joining the ranks of his country’s 5 million unemployed by the end of September so I’m not sure we need be too concerned about his views.
9. If UK will put the rebate in question, France will have to agree to reform CAP.
It’s a nonsense to ask UK to give up the rebate without reforming the CAP and it’s impossible to ask to reform CAP without being willing to have some changes concerning the rebate. To achieve a compromise both parts have to give up on something.
I’m sure Schroeder will be in a better situation than the 5 million German unemployed. I just looked at the polls and I saw that PDS/Lafontaine are at 8%. Already better than FDP and at the same level at the Greens. They really could come third.
“while France and Germany continue to refuse even to consider negotiating reform on the CAP which is heavily biased in favour of the French and which costs billions of Sterling more than the rebate ever has?”
The CAP has already been renegociated. If Blair didn’t like it why did he sign it? Bringing back something that’s already been decided for electoral gain is just dishonest.
As for France getting the best of the CAP, no it doesn’t France produces 23 of agricultural produce, it gets 22 percent of the subsidy.
78 percent of the CAP goes to other countries. The UK should remember that when it’s playing the bully. I’m not surprised that Italy is upset. I suspect Spain and Greece are too.
Blair is worse than Thatcher, Thatcher was always highly respected in Europe. Thatcher didn’t try and break Europe, as Blair seems determined to do.
I have to agree with Andrea, the British press has been so biassed on this, it’s unbelievable.
One thing I have found extremely offensive is the dismissal of Junker because his country is small. This is not a European attitude. All of the countries of Europe are important, no matter how small.
10 - Glad you agree on that point of what I think most of us here in Britain see as basic common sense. Pity the Continental leadership aren’t as sensible.
WRT the situation in Germany, have a look at this link: http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm
None of those figures show a CDU margin smaller than 15% or a vote share lower than 44%. As long as the FDP gets it’s 5%, then there can be little doubt of the political complexion of the next government. Indeed, if the higher end polls have correct vote share figures, the CDU may not need any coalition partners at all. Lafontaine’s coalition will likely just exacerbate what is already going to be a bad result for the Red-Green alliance.
11 - Alright then, Einstein. Tell me, why are France and Germany so keen to re-visit the issue of the British rebate which is at most a peripheral issue to the problems now facing Europe?
How Predictable. The French reject the EU constitution and plunge Europe into it’s gravest crisis in twenty years making Chirac a lame duck at home and impotent abroad, another founder EU member in the Netherlands do the same, and it’s all Britain’s fault? Perhaps you can sort that one out for me.
The issue here is not the British rebate. It’s how the European leadership has fallen so badly out of step with it’s people and what they need to do to reconnect if the ‘European Dream’ is to live on. If the French want to discuss side issues like the rebate, then we have every right to talk about France’s gluttonous share of CAP receipts compared to every other member state. If they don’t like attention focused on that, perhaps they should stay fixed on issues that matter and stop creating a diverson for the benefit of the French Electorate at home.
Point of oder Andrea at ten. Blair has said precisely that. That he will put the rebate on the table if Chirac does the same with CAP, But Jacques said NO WAY.
Charyexna you really must have blown a gasket if you tyhink TB is more Eurosceptic than MAggie! Your attitude is bizarre, if you want to talk about imooraility i suggest you talk to Oxfam or the Campaign for Fair TRae, who might tell you a thing or two about how African Farmers are kept in povert by the CAP, the one area they are competitive in, and as a double insult European Surpluses are then dumped on their markets with EU export subsidies to further ruin them, it’s ironic that the French accuse others of ’social dumping.’
Andrea be vinterested in your response to my post at Eight. THanks.
14 - Charyxena has been living in France too long. He/She has clearly gone native on us.
12. If PDS would have not achieved the 5%, CDU could have got an absolute majority even with these numbers with the seats divided only by 4 parties. With PDS/Lafontaine in the middle and the seats probably divided by 5 parties, it’s more difficult to get an absolute majority by the CDU alone. With FDP there shouldn’t be problems.
8. I think nobody would consider seriously to trade UK for Albania (ok maybe the Communists will suggest it, but it depends from their mood).
Re Italian elections: Prodi is more like a priest than a leader. He defeated Berlusconi in 1996. He lasted only 2 years, then the communists withdrew their support and the government fell by one vote. Even if he will win next year, he could depend from communists MPs again. Try to think a Labour government in the hands of 30 versions of George Galloway.
“If the French want to discuss side issues like the rebate, then we have every right to talk about France’s gluttonous share of CAP receipts compared to every other member state.”
Rubbish, 22 percent of CAP for 23 percent of production is hardly “gluttonous”. It’s not France’s fault that the UK no-longer has any agriculture worth the name. Maybe the UK should get its finger out and start producing proper food?
Yes, the high productivity CAP was bad for third world farmers. That’s why it’s been reformed. The new CAP isn’t particularly bad, apart from, I agree, East Anglian sugar beet farmers. I totally concur, the EU shouldn’t be producing sugar beet.
Maggie campaigned FOR the UK in Europe. She wasn’t particularly fond of Europe, but neither did she seem to want to do it positive harm like Blair.
Tories spend their time saying that Europe should listen to its people, then when they do they get upset. The CAP is POPULAR in Southern Europe.
17. Are several years being rather normal and boring in having the same PM, are you about to go back to revolving door Govts then? Or do you agree with my suspicion that BErlusconi will hang on, given the COurt Cases that might loom if he doesn’t?
Ps You should recommend this Site to others. It is always good to hear non Brotisdh Perspectivesa.
18 - Very selective of you, Charyxena. No need to get into the relative efficiency of our farmers comparied to those in France, but what of the rest of my post? Or, like a good little European, have you swallowed the line that despite the two ‘no’ votes in France and Holland that have actually precipitated the current ‘crisis’, it’s all Britain’s fault!
18 aND YOUR answer to Oxfam, who say CAP reform thus far barely scratches the surface along with the the CAmpaign for fair trade etc, and that the African famers are STILL shut out of the EU by CAP, and further impoverished by EU Export Subsidies? You don’t have an anser to that do you? Presumably it’s OK to Condemn them to Poverty?
ps nice touch to focus on UK farmers, you wouldn’t admit oiur french brothers might be guilty as charged as well?
“It’s not France’s fault that the UK no-longer has any agriculture worth the name. Maybe the UK should get its finger out and start producing proper food?”
What’s wrong with trade? Why do we have to produce everything we use? For me this is the great contradiction of EU that makes me ambivalent on the issue - philosophically bringing down trade barriers within the EU should be a stepping stone on the way to wider world trade, yet 40% of the budget is still spent on erecting a Fortress Europe, at least as far as agriculture is concerned.
19.”Are several years being rather normal and boring in having the same PM, are you about to go back to revolving door Govts then? ”
His government was almost able to run for all the parliamentary term, but he was obliged to resign and create a new one a couple of months ago. So he failed to reach one of his aim: to run the first Italian governemnt able to last 5 years.
I don’t know if he’ll win again. I hope not. the last opinion poll has the centre-left coalition leading, but the margin wasn’t big (3-4 points).
23. THat’s the difference between here and there as Berlusconi never actually lost his majority in Parliament did he? All the P[arties stayed the SAme. Here Balir has big reshuffles all the time, but in Itsaly because of that Pesky Law he would have to “techincally resign” all the time even if he still had a majority andf it was in reailty the same government, correct? What are the latest betting odds your election? Do you have Spread Markets as we doa?
“Why do we have to produce everything we use?”
It’s called “foodmiles”. It is not sutainable transporting fruit and vegetables halfway round the world. Or would you like to eat GM tomatoes transformed to last the weeks it would take to import them by ship to Europe?
As for African farmers, they need to be producing for their own markets, not us. There’s nothing wrong with African farming that good governance won’t put right. Africa has problems because of the cleptomania and bad government of its leaders.
I am totally opposed to generalised importation of food from Africa (or anywhere else), it’s not good for them, it’s not good for us and it’s not good for the planet.
OXFAM has a very politicised view of this. I disagree with it.
“No need to get into the relative efficiency of our farmers comparied to those in France, but what of the rest of my post?”
Why not? I thought this was all about being competitive?
“As for African farmers, they need to be producing for their own markets, not us”
African farmers need to be selling their runner beans not to us but to themselves. It’s immoral to expect African farmers to produce crops for us rich people which they aren’t able to afford themselves.
Justa note: France has a lot more land to farm with the same population
27 - quoting yourself? If they could sell them to us they might be able to afford more things, don’t you think?
25 - Well, I’m in favour of properly taxing aviation fuel (and all CO2 emissions), but that is not the same issue. Or if it is: following your argument, presumably we want to discourage extended road freight within the EU as well. So why should UK taxpayers subsidise farmers in jusrisdictions with lower fuel taxes?
28 Quite.
But I was doing down British farming for the sake of argument, since it’s joined the CAP, Britain has vastly improved its productivity. UK farms are very good now. It gets less subsidy because it farms half the land France does.
Personally I think the CAP should be phased out. But telling ten percent of French workers they can go hang isn’t the way to do it.
“But telling ten percent of French workers they can go hang isn’t the way to do it.”
Perhaps the rest of the EEC should have offered us a Common Coal Policy in 1984…
“Or if it is: following your argument, presumably we want to discourage extended road freight within the EU as well.”
Yes. Half the foot and mouth problem came from the crazy way Britain implemented abbatoir reglementation, animals should not be bussed round the country. Rail.
Especially for fresh food. There is an optimum transport circle around producers of different crops. It should be respected. Of course if people really want to pay a fortune for runner beans from Chile in the winter, that’s fine, but they should cost what they really cost They should not be subsidised by people’s lungs.
“Perhaps the rest of the EEC should have offered us a Common Coal Policy in 1984… ;-)”
Quite. However a large reduction in UK (and European mining was inevitable). But it was over done. The UK now imports coal from Australia, which is ridiculous, and bad for the planet.
33 - “They should cost what they really cost. They should not be subsidised by people’s lungs.”
I suspect the impacts are more on the ozone layer (nitrogen oxides have a much more damaging effect when injected into the stratosphere) and on the climate than on anyone’s lungs: but yes, I agree with you. They should cost what they really cost.
Re 34… “Quite. However a large reduction in UK (and European mining was inevitable). But it was over done. The UK now imports coal from Australia, which is ridiculous, and bad for the planet.”
I don’t understand. Why is strip mining coal in Australia worse than sending men down pits to get terrible lung diseases and die in industrial accidents?
And why is it worse to transport coal from Australia than… say… lamb from New Zealand?
And another thing (while I’m having a rant): farming in Europe is ineffient. We have an absurd system where to get worthwhile yields we use massive amounts of damaging pestisides and fertilizers. Rather than - say - importing food from parts of the world better suited to farming.
Why is it that when the issue of farming comes up, people start suggesting things that would sound absurd for any other industry. Why are farmers treated differently to computer programmers, coal miners and textile workers?
Farming is just another industry. If it can’t be done efficiently (i.e. without subsidies) in Europe then it should be done elsewhere.
End of story.
24.”THat’s the difference between here and there as Berlusconi never actually lost his majority in Parliament did he? All the P[arties stayed the SAme. Here Balir has big reshuffles all the time, but in Itsaly because of that Pesky Law he would have to “techincally resign” all the time even if he still had a majority andf it was in reailty the same government, correct? What are the latest betting odds your election? Do you have Spread Markets as we doa? ”
He could make reshuffles without resigning, but it’s common practice for PM to resign and create a new government asking the Parliament a vote of confidence if the reshuffle is big. But the law doesn’t oblige it. Once a PM resigned and then he made a new government identical to the previous one! Very weird.
The vote of confidence usually takes a long time because MPs are called name by name to give their vote. It could be very exiciting if the majority is very thin (once an MP started to cry after voting against her party wish!).
Another thing we have and Uk doesn’t have are secret votes. In some occasions, some amendments could be voted by secret ballots. the governments usually don’t like secret votes on controversial issues (and if the government is defeated everyone starts to say “don’t look at me, it’s not my fault”).
We couldn’t bet on our elections, but we could bet on British one.
It is a storm in a tea-cup. The UK abatement is hard to defend in the current form as so many poor Member States have to pay so much for it (which is why the UK is offering to let them off). The UK and France are the two anomalous coutries - UK for a high contribution relative to its size and France for a very low contribution. Co-financing the CAP (each Member State paying 50%) of the money going to its farmers) would solve some of the problems with the budget, but not all of them, and it will be hard to achieve. Many Member States are aggrieved that the UK was the biggest advocate of expanding the EU but is, because of the operation of the abatement, insulated from financing it. No decision was ever going to be taken at this summit. The EU could go at least another 18 months without taking a decision, and probably will.
Incidentally, Ian Gilmour was responsible for negotiating the abatement. In his book he suggests that Thatcher didn´t want it. She would have been happier with a continuing grievance.
38. so do you thunk that at the end everything will stay in the same way: UK with its rebate and France with the CAP?
Spread betting on the budget deal could be interesting, couldn´t it? It certainly is an option. But I think that Germany was the only significant contributor to show much support for the deal on the table (I´ll have to check). Most contributors would like to pay less and would like more of the budget to go to the new member states. Berlusconi said that funds for the mezzogiorno shouldn’t be touched - but most of the EU probably wouldn´t say this is a priority. I can imagine some sort of deal to cut back on the CAP over a period of time (perhaps just in richer Member States) linked to a phased reduction in the rebate. A lot depends on the elections in Germany. For once I agree with AHM that the CDU is likely to win. Of course we all thought that last time.
40.”Berlusconi said that funds for the mezzogiorno shouldn’t be touched ”
no surprise there. We have no more money.
“A lot depends on the elections in Germany. For once I agree with AHM that the CDU is likely to win. Of course we all thought that last time”
What could save him this time? He could only hope that Blair will decide to invade France.
41 - lol!
“In his book he suggests that Thatcher didn´t want it. She would have been happier with a continuing grievance.”
Yes, and I can’t help thinking Chirac should have talked about the CAP for that very reason. However, politically he can’t. The CAP directly hits all the people who voted against him in the referendum. There’d be riots here.
“I don’t understand. Why is strip mining coal in Australia worse than sending men down pits to get terrible lung diseases and die in industrial accidents?
And why is it worse to transport coal from Australia than… say… lamb from New Zealand?”
Because it’s bad for the planet. Coal is also bad because it’s rocketing up the costs for the big boats needed to do it. Which then aren’t available for transporting things which are much more valuable.
“And another thing (while I’m having a rant): farming in Europe is ineffient. We have an absurd system where to get worthwhile yields we use massive amounts of damaging pestisides and fertilizers. Rather than - say - importing food from parts of the world better suited to farming.”
With the greatest respect, that’s rubbish. European farming is extremely efficient. It was the old CAP that made farmers go hell for leather for productivity over quality. The new CAP tries to correct that.
Europe is extremely well suited for most of the crops it grows. Britain is one of the best countries for strawberries for instance.
It is NOT efficient to import fresh fruit and veg from too far. It’s not even really possible without using GM which makes tomatoes which are eatable for weeks. I’m sorry, but I’m not eating weeks old tomatoes.
“Farming is just another industry. If it can’t be done efficiently (i.e. without subsidies) in Europe then it should be done elsewhere.”
ok, explain how britain gets its strawberries which need to get from producer to buyer in about 48 hours?
45 - Fruit farming (particularly stawberries, raspberies etc) has been one of the major growth areas in Scottish agriculture. Its why you see so many polly tunnels in Angus and Perthshire. Its also very lucrative and disproves the myth that British farming can’t be done efficiently. Just outside the village I’m from there is the biggest independent battery chicken farm in Scotland. Another example of efficient farming.
26 - You miss my point, Monsieur. British farmers ARE more efficient. That’s why we get less money from the CAP alongside the fact that our agricultural sector is smaller.
47 I couldn’t agree with you more, but I was replying to the person who thought agriculture shouldn’t be done in Europe. If Scotland (and lots of England) are no-longer allowed to grow strawberries, where will Britain get its strawberries from?
“You miss my point, Monsieur. British farmers ARE more efficient. That’s why we get less money from the CAP alongside the fact that our agricultural sector is smaller.”
No. France produces 23 percent of European produce. But gets 22 percent of subsidy. It’s subsidising less efficient farmers to the tune of one percent.
Sod the Euro babble………I hope you have been taking Jack’s advise to back against the Aussies in the cricket as Bangladesh have just rolled them over by 5 wickets……..Singing………..Jack’s in the money …Jack’s in the money………….
The convicts (Australia) humiliated again, this time by Bangladesh. Perhaps Jack W’s Ashes bet is going to pay big dividends this year.
Paying a farmer (out of the CAP budget) six times the amount of rent that he pays on farm land that he doesn’t work is efficient, is it? Only in France, I suppose. This is quite amusing.
Councillor Mark Hunter, the Leader of Stockport Council, has today been chosen by the Cheadle Constituency Liberal Democrats to be their Parliamentary Candidate
“Paying a farmer (out of the CAP budget) six times the amount of rent that he pays on farm land that he doesn’t work is efficient, is it? Only in France, I suppose. This is quite amusing. :lol:”
No, it happened in Britain too. But that has already been abolished, so what’s your point?
54. Is he a good candidate? Is the Stockport Council popular?
No and No, I am told!
55 - It never happened in Britain on the scale that it happened in France, as you well know.
The point is that the entire policy is an bloated boondoggle that is well past it’s sell by date, and if the French want to take our rebate, they had bloody well better be prepared to have their money cut too, which they aren’t. In their typical Gaullic fashion they want everyone else to come to their rescue while they sit back on their billions of ill gotten gains. It’s not on.
Blunt enough for you?
Returning to the EU bust up. The UK and Luxembourg do not often see eye-to-eye on very much, but the sour comments from Juncker were absurd. The United Kingdom is not alone- so the offensive comment from the Italian journalist- “shouldn’t the EU just chuck out the UK”- mearely reinforces the utter lack of self awareness of these people -”oh wad some had the gift tae gie us- to see oorsels as ithers see us”.
The UK is backed by the A8 on budget reform without exception: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Czech, Hungary, Slovenia- all now enthusiastic full members of NATO (unlike France). We are also backed by Sweden, Denmark, The Netherlands, Ireland, Italy and Portugal. Germany is a detached ally of Chirac (who has just hit even deeper lows in public support in France), Spain is a more engaged and ally and Belgium (which I seem to recall was the worst word in the Universe) and Luxembourg are full allies of Chirac. Dunno Finland CY and Malta,G.C. positions.
In any event, France proposed the Constitution (Delors) wrote it (Giscard D’Estaing) and stuffed it- why the Brits should end up making a “Gesture of solidarity” to cover Chiracs problems of French intellectual Masturbation I do not know- I propose a quite different gesture- which I beleive our esteemed PM is likely to be giving M. Juncker in his abscence after the transfer of the Presidency to the UK in a few days time.
56 - You would say that wouldn’t you , perhaps that is why they were re-elected wth a bigger majority in 2004
59 - James O: You and I don’t agree on much, but I second that post entirely!
60 - spot on!
59 UK and Lux DO normally see eye to eye on tax harmonisation and related issues. But Juncker has blown it of late. He has turned a difficult negotiation into a media crisis (but not by any means a real crisis). His position in Luxembourg will suffer as a result.
BTW according to the Conservative website, Stephen Day is now the official Tory candidate for Cheadle. Not much surprise there. I guess they were waiting for the Lib Dems to announce their PPC before jumping in.
Should be an interesting race though. While the Tory candidate has defects, selecting the leader of the council is always a risky choice even if the council is broadly popular. It allows the opposition to fight a local campaign, on the council, rather than a national one, which suits the Tories given their current leaderless state. I still expect a Lib Dem hold though.
Buzz, buzz.
Of course the Lib Dems are going to win Cheadle with a huge majority. How much of a shock would it be if the Tories won a by election in which the previous incumbent was of another party, it hasn’t of course happened since 1982 (Mitcham and Morden).
65. Reduced Majority likely though don’t you think? Voter fatigue. Tactical Labour Voters can’t be arsed to vote now TB has got his bloody nose etc? I know you may Cite Wincxhester, but that was at the height of anti Tory hatred, i’d be quite surprised if the LIberal Democrats actually increase their Majority as you Expect.
66. “actually increase their Majority as you Expect.”
you should remember that Sophia is sometimes over-pessimistic about tories chances
Now I would predict a Libdems win with a reduced majority (around 4%).
Suapect majority will increase in percentage terms but perhaps reduce numerically if turn out is low .
It appears I am not alone in thinking this is the first decent thing Blair has done in his eight years in power (apart from giving the BoE independence to set interest rates). Interesting to see that it wasn’t only the usual Scandinavian suspects to side with us but also countries like Spain.
When you throw the likely new Chancellor of Germany into the mix, M Chirac appears to be running out of friends.
I have not heard anything particularly negative on Stockport Council- Lib Dems returned recently, and with either the same or an increased majority I believe. I will be interested how the Lib Dems run the campaign- how much they mention Patsy, if her relatives campaign etc.
I received an email, as did every Lib Dem, from Lord Rennard saying the usual ‘come and help us win’ blurb, but he made an interesting point- that all the leadership contenders for the cons will be trying to show that they have what it takes and to muscle in on the campaign.
Latest polls show the tories in poor condition and Lib Dems popular (30% to 26%). The tories have no real backbone at the moment. I look forward to the vote!
Online editions of the 2 most important Italian newspapers (La Repubblica and Il Corriere della Sera-the journalist who asked if it isn’t better to thorow UK out of the EU works for the Corrire-) are continuing with their “it’s all Blair’s fault” reports. They reported that Netherlands and Sweden were willing to negotiate, while UK was the only one not willing to negotiate.
Strange, I didn’t expect this coverage by the Corriere della Sera.
The titles are “Europe without an agreement, London accused. Junker:”EU in a profound crisis, I was ashamed” (from Il Corriere) and “A no from Blair, EU budget collapses. Junker:”I was ashamed” (from La Repubblica).
Probably Blair will gain support in UK by this.
Andrea we canb bet on your Election over here though, i’m thinking internet bookies etc, so you’llstill be able to use your local knowledge to Profit? At least your election might geneuinely be a Clifhanger the onl;y seeming question is whether the cdu can do the once unthinkablea and actually win an overall MAjority on their Owna!
70 Don’t get overxecited post election polls meaningless, i’ve np doubts you’ll win but i doubt by morea than lasdt timi, all thosea Tactical Labour Voter may not be arsed to show up. As i say you should win by say 2-3k maybe my guessa. AS for Rennard let’s see if he’s right, you expect him to rev you up wouldn’t youa?
71 PS Are those rags owned by the BErlusoni familia?
Tim - “The tories have no real backbone at the moment.”
Speaking as a Tory in Wellingborough, I’m surprised to hear that…we don’t have any by-elections pending, yet we had our task force out delivering leaflets this morning. Were many Libdems out grinding down the shoe-leather today?
73. No. One of them is actually against him.
Berlsconi defends Blair today, but I bet that if he will go in France tomorrow he’ll say the opposite thing.
RE 74: V.Impressive, though I guess that Wellinborough was a narrow Tory gain and needs to be worked at to get a large majority next time. Wasn’t it 4th time lucky for your candidate as well?
74- I’m not saying that you are not working, all I am saying is that the Tories are, as several political pundits have said, not providing any strong opposition while they are preoccupied with leadership talk.
BTW, John Hemming is writing about his ‘liasion’ on his blog: johnhemming.blogspot.com
77.”BTW, John Hemming is writing about his ‘liasion’ on his blog: johnhemming.blogspot.com ”
He’s acting like it’s a common thing for every husband. Maybe I’m missing something about British marriages or maybe I’m becoming a moralist.
78- Is it me or is that an ‘inteesting’ relationship. She knows he has affairs (which he tells her about) but because he is honest she tolerates it. He is calling the pregnant women his ‘girlfriend’ but is staying with his wife.
And I thought Paul Marsden was interesting!
I have to admit, this story is fairly sickening. If he was a Tory MP I have no doubt there would be serious rumblings about deselection. How he can still refer to her as a girlfriend defies belief as well. Anyway if Yardley is abolished, presumably he has to seek selection for a new seat. Would any association take him?
BTW if you go done to the kitten story there are a couple of hilarious comments.
Re Cheadle - With no chance of ‘letting the tories in’ - i.e. the last minute labour 1 in 10 campaign, the libdem performance will be more like their local election results, i.e. a few percentage above their GE votes in many places. No chance of shaky hand syndrome. I predict an increased libdem majority.
Of course Mr Hemming follows on in Lloyd George’s great liberal tradition. Perhaps we can expect an article from him soon in the Spectator (or s*xtator as private eye calls it) on the virtues of marriage.
82 - You mean he’ll have her bent over the table in the Cabinet Room at Number 10 next?
60.”I have to admit, this story is fairly sickening. If he was a Tory MP I have no doubt there would be serious rumblings about deselection.”
About “interesting” relationships by tories MPs, I remember the tory MEP who was having an affair with a gay porno star. The wife knew about it and she approved it. Then she started to make interviews talking about all the affairs her husband had and how she usually invited her husband’s lovers to dinner to meet them! Then she talked about her affairs (she described herself as “boringly straight” or something like this). It was a very weird relationships. They had children.
I find interesting Jeremy Corbyn’s situation too. Divorced, but still loving with his wife.
81.”Re Cheadle - With no chance of ‘letting the tories in’ - i.e. the last minute labour 1 in 10 campaign”
true, but some Labour voters could find no need to tactically vote Libdems to keep the tories out in a Libdems/Con marginal. I suppose some lab voters voted Libdems in May in Libdems/Con marginals to give the tories less seats.
59-I had thought that the Iraq information minister was a ‘one off’,little did I know until recently that he had a relative living in Europe who was the local Mayor sorry prime minister for a medium size town called Luxembourg.A collection of his recent profound statements:
‘If the people vote yes in the Referendum then we go ahead ,but if they vote no we will continue’.
‘If the people of Luxembourg were to vote no in the Referendum then I would resign’ (within 24 hours the no vote had increased by 10%).
‘There is absolutely nothing wrong with the constitution,it will not be changed,the French and Dutch people did not vote aginst the constitution but against other issues.
blair was right giving it some to the assorted krauts and frogs at that conference. Pompous european muppets is what they are
“If he was a Tory MP I have no doubt there would be serious rumblings about deselection.”
You may have hit on a key difference between Lib Dem and Tory members there. My guess is that the vast majority of his constituency party would rather he didn’t have a messy personal life, but genuinely think it has nothing to do with his ability as an MP. In my experience “if he lied to his wife, he is capable of lying to the nation” carries negligible weight with those of a liberal persuasion.
Tory local parties, on the other hand, deselected the chap in Surrey Heath but did not deselect Jonathan Sayeed (he survived a constituency vote but stepped down under CCO pressure). I suspect Lib Dems would have done the reverse - and something like Falmouth and Cambourne would never have come to a vote (credit to the majority of the local Tory party there for defeating the deselection attempt - though I hear it was close).
87.”I suspect Lib Dems would have done the reverse - and something like Falmouth and Cambourne would never have come to a vote (credit to the majority of the local Tory party there for defeating the deselection attempt - though I hear it was close). ”
to be fair with Falmouth and Cambourne tories members newspapers reported they voted with a great majority to keep the candidate.
88 - but they would say that wouldn’t they? You don’t reselect then report that it was fairly bloody, was on a knife-edge but you gave him the benefit of the doubt. I had heard the minority against him was sizeable, but freely admit to not having an inside track on it.
89. So in other words you don’t know except you’re convinced they are prejudiced so what you read in let me guess the Guardian/indpendent must be truea?
90 - I neither said I knew, nor that I was convinced, merely that I heard. If you read my post, P, you will notice that I also praised the majority of F&C Tories for voting against deselection. What is undisputed fact, however, is that enough were as you describe for a meeting to be forced and a vote had.
91. 66 members asked for the deselection vote out 650.
78-Am sure his antics (and the concealment during the election)will go down like a lead balloon with the muslim voters & with his majority of 2,600 will be dumped next time by the electors when they are reminded of this.
Can you imagine the furore from the sandals & anorak brigade if it had been a Tory MP.
John at 94: you seem to be missing the point about the Tory trousers-at-the-ankles scandals of the 90s and beyond: it was the right-wing press (and some of the Conservative Associations), not the “sandals & anorak brigade”, who were baying for blood.
In general Labour and Liberal activists weren’t particularly vocal about these affairs (Tory “friendly fire” meant they didn’t need to be). It’s a bit rich for you to be talking about some “furore” on their part.
On the other hand, there was a great deal of “furore” about the legal & *financial* scandals (Hamilton etc).
I don’t think it’s unreasonable to draw a distinction between the two - and I think that’s something most members of the public are willing to do (vide Cook, Ashdown, even Alan Clark & Steve Norris emerging pretty unscathed compared to Hamilton, Aitken, Archer, Mandelson etc).
When it came to s@x scandals, the Tories were their own worst enemies - partly because of the ill-conceived and misunderstood “back-to-basics” campaign.
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