Will Thursday be bad for Labour in South Staffs?
June 19th, 2005
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SkyBet stops taking money on Labour getting less than 30%
Nearly a month ago we urged site users to make money on the postponed South Staffordshire election by betting that Labour would get less than 30% on June 23rd. At the time SkyBet were offering evens on this outcome which we felt was great value for money.
Since then the price has tightened and tightened and reached 4/7 a week ago when Skybet suspended all betting on the party shares in Thursday’s election. They’ve now re-opened the South Staffs markets but are not taking any money at all on Labour getting below 30%. Our view on how Labour will do has not changed.
It’s hard to call the Tory vote but we think that the Lib Dems at 15% or more looks like a good bet even though the price is now 8/13.
The General Election in the seat had to be put back because of the death of the Lib Dem candidate between the closure of nominations and polling day.
Mike Smithson
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Has anyone heard anything about how this little contest is going?
I heard nothing first hand and everything else is coming from one article I’ve read in the guardian and one that I’ve read on the BBC site… then there is also a sample of the literature being delivered in South Staffs (to be found at the ever reliable http://www.by_elections.blogspot.com/ )… from what I can tell Paul Kalinauckas is fighting Labour’s corner pretty aggressively, while the LD’s seem to putting in a pretty low level campaign…
So judging from the little I’ve seen and heard I think we’ll hold on to second place pretty easily, but slipping below 30% would not surprise me at all, Cormack to win it with comparative ease (twas always thus) with the LDs increasing their vote modestly… in short a pretty boring spectacle.
…now on to Cheadle
Ben - thanks for the link which I’ll put on our links bar. It looks a great site.
What do you mean about the Labour candidate “fighting it aggressively”. His leaflets seem to be based on the bog-standard Labour General Election leaflets but seven weeks out of date. How much canvassing is going on? What sort of polling day operation is planned? Are Labour “knocking-up” postal voters to make sure they’ve sent their ballots back?
Has some compelling rhetoric been developed that will get Labour voters out in a fight which appears meaningless?
Mind you I like Cormack’s posters with just the new date “June 23″ stuck on the May 5th ones.
2. Mike, the recycled posters are part of the new Tory strategy, which is ‘waste not, want not’ Have a poster? re-use it; have a leadership contender whose been surveyed in the past? trot him out again! Have an old set of policies which include the word “modernisation”? Bring it out as if new!
Wasn’t there a Petition to overturn Birmingham Sparkbrook? What happened? Still no date for Cheadlea?
Mike
I’m afraid that I’m not involved in South Staffs so the details of the campaign are for the most part a mystery to me, as I said I’m going on what has been reported.
I would expect that the West Midlands regional office is giving the contest a fair bit of attention support from Birmingham is probably being offered but nothing of the scale of the by-elections of the last parliament, both the local Tories and LDs are probably also giving a similar moderate level of support to the local campaign but I expect both their national leaderships are more concerned with the pending by-election in Cheadle… in short I’d expect more resources for this seat than would be typical but nothing major, with a Tory win a near certainty in such a safe seat and an important by-election for both the LDs and the Tories in the offing all sides seem content to fight a low level campaign.
By all accounts Kalinauckas fought an aggressive campaign back in 2001 (or was it 97?) and it seems that he’s been get out across the constituency a great deal during the campaign which should help get the Labour base out… but I doubt that he’ll be able to defy the national trend from May 5th and so I’d expect the Labour share to go down bellow 30% with a modest increase for the LibDem likely… the big variable is turnout will people who haven’t yet had the chance to vote simply turnout as they would normally or will it be like a by-election where people are “pig-sick” and not at all motivated to vote.
Cormack seems popular locally and the instinctively conservative nature of the seat means that even with a low turnout he should sail through, the thing which might dent his margin of victory somewhat would be if the Conservative base after a third election defeat where less motivated to vote than they where on May 5th .
Labour have a solid candidate, but the natural conservatism of the area combined with the national trend against Labour means that we will be doing very well the hold steady at where we where in 2001… what is more like the Conservatives how motivated will the Labour base be with the result of the national election already decisively settled?
The LibDems are fighting in a naturally conservative seat from third place where they would seem (I may be wrong here) to have no history of local strength in contrast to many other such rural, conservative seats. The big advantage the local LibDems will have is the potential for a sympathy vote, however I have no evidence to suggest that the late LibDem candidate was sufficiently well know locally to elicited any significant such “sympathy vote”… As was the case nationally on May 5th the LibDem should be able to look forward to some labour voters logging a protest vote with them, but here again weather such voters will even be motivated to vote with the national result already decided remains an open question.
I’ll agree with you Mike on the Cormack Posters
but I would like to see some of his literature, he is always very insistent that he uses his own material; I would dearly like to see some of it (!) – In Leicester South we where similarly reticent to (for the most part) use nationally produced templates, indeed most of out literature was locally produced and much better than the national material I’ve seen from other constituencies… nationally both the LDs and the Tories beat us in the quality of their literature… though in Leicester South we naturally wiped the floor with both of them 
I just noticed the Labour sign shown on the by-election blog is a diamond… horray! If this is going to become available nationally we’ll finally be able to dispense with the wood and paste jobs we had to use on the drain pies of terraced houses in the last election… it had been the one area where the LDs where able to beat us here in Leicester, their dimonds covert very nicely into being strapped onto drain pipes on terraced houses… I’ll have to put in an order for some of e’m
It would be interesting to see the election literature of quite a few MPs.
Has anyone ever seen a survey which reflected on the effectiveness of political leaflets? The doorstep brigade dutifully shove things through the letterbox, and unless the recipient is a party ‘faithful’ it usually goes in the bin!
Lib Dems have chosen candidate for Cheadle - Cllr Mark Hunter, Leader of Stockport Council.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4107962.stm
For some reason the BBC has accompanied the article with a picture of Mike Russell, the former SNP MSP and leadership contender…..
Sophia
Here is some literature…
http://leaflets2005.blogspot.com/
…for the most part I can only apologise for the quality of the Labour material
.
Thanks Ben - they are great! I agree with Mike Cunningham, I doubt election literature is that effective.
Have no local knowledge of this constituency so I am still a bit wary that the Lib Dems could even drop to 4th if the Freedom Party achieves anything like the vote it did in 1 of the County Council seats . This and other Staffordshire constituencies are pretty barren ground for the Libs
Of all the election leaflets on that site, the DUP ones look the most glossy and professional.
11 - I remember many years ago when the Liberals first started delivering Focus leaflets with very local content , they did have a marked effect on local elections . Now even the Conservatives often call themselves the Conservative X ward Focus Team and the effect is much lessened . In GE terms the effect of leaflets has been and is pretty minimal .
Mike + Sophia
My feeling has always been that if people get literature they generally moan and throw it in the bin after the most tertiary of looks (if that) but if they get no literature they it is the lack of activity that is eventually noticed and they moan and then that can influence their vote… this is not true of every one, but when it is important to motivate your voters, particularly the left’s voters who are famous for their low turnout getting the occasional piece of literature through the door over through the year does have an impact and in many places Labour and the Tories have learnt this to their cost…
In terms of actually influencing voters, I think literature has little impact but that is not the same as no impact, indeed the biggest impact literate from a political party has is simply that it comes through a persons door and they register which party it was from, as I have already said this can have a big impact over time.
In Leicester South, our literate played IMHO a very important part in reinforcing the narrative of our campaign, what is more as the majority of our material was locally produced and as a result easily had more impact than much of the national produced literature that I have seen, the fact that it was locally produced was also reflected in the fact that we in Leicester South fought a rigorously local campaign and our literature conveyed that well and IMHO played a not insignificant part in our wining back the seat.
Having met the Lib Dem candidate Jo Crotty yesterday she is the Lib Dems best asset, if only voters could meet her - there havent even been any public meetings. The consituency is a right mess, a ribbon round Wolverhampton with no focal point. I would expect, from very limited leaflet delivering on two Saturdays, a poor turnout. The only posters seem to be on the lamp posts - most have about four - a waste of effort I would think, though the orange diamond is, as always, highly visible.
The campaign that Kalinauckas fought for Labour in 2001 saw the party’s share drop by 0.5% on the previous General Election which was no better and no worse than the national average of other seats at that election which the Tories held in 1997. Cormack increased his majority.
Looking at the past three elections the big change has been in the Lib Dem share. In 1992 it was 15.1%; in 1997 it was 11.3%; and in 2001 it was 11.6%
My guess is that with all the EU news of late there will be a boost for UKIP at the expense of the Tories and Labour. Many electors will take the opportunity of making a statement on Chirac and the EU constitutional referendums.
The Green Party who are calling themselves “Green Party against Airport Expansion” will also eat into the Labour vote.
My projected poll shares are:-
CON 40%: LAB 20%: LD 17%: UKIP 11%: GRN 10%: OTH 2%
I have done some canvassing. Based on what I’ve seen I’m expecting Cormack to get about 40% and Lib Dems 30%. Labour would seem to be heading for 15%. But the constituency is quite mixed and my results may not be typical. Turnout may be very low - and this could affect relative shares quite significantly.
Mr Smithson, any info on my post at 4? Cheers.
10.”…for the most part I can only apologise for the quality of the Labour material ”
In terms of graphic I find them better than the Libdems and tories ones, but some candidates should choose better photos.
re 4. I have no information other than this Tines story of June 2nd
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-1637224,00.html
17 - I agree that the sort of result you suggest would be more logical. Still the point you make at 2 is key. Have Labour got a compelling argument to get their supporters out? My canvassing suggested that Labour supporters just aren´t going to bother voting.
17 - Little surprised you have UKIP at 11% and others ( Freedom Party ) AT ONLY 2% but as I have said I have no local knowledge .
Who’s this Ex-Tory Spin Doctora Longworth? Just on Sky News praising David to high heavena.
PS KEN CLARKE ABOUT TOP BE ON ITV ON TEN MINUTES. WILL HE STANDA?
21. Cheers. That really would ve faxinating if that was re-run. I’d really believe respect might win if that happeneda. Galloways would show up, all the other Parties Votes wou;d collapse tactically to hurt Labour as happeneda in Berthnal,Green and Bow. You agree mr smithson?
Clark will run if he’ll get enough support and if the party will be ready to change.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4108564.stm
and when he’ll 78 he will canvass to become Pope.
26. Just said that live on TV. Lost none of his Charisma. I think he may do it because if he can squeeze into the top two, and get Cameron’s Block behind him he would surely have a real Chance.
As for P[ontiff, what do you think Andrea a littlte too Conservative for the Vatican?
I know this sounds very ageist, but I think Ken Clarke is just too old.
If there was a by-election in Brum: Small Heath I doubt Reynard would allow the LibDem vote to collapse, the Conservative vote would by and large be an irrelevance and would no doubt cling on to the 9% the party won on May 5th… the best hope for Labour would be that both Respect and the LDs split the anti-Labour vote as they did on May 5th and let Labour in through the middle.
I would expect Respect once again to select Salma Yaqoob, who is an amazingly capable candidate by all accounts while the LibDems would probably be keen to also field a Muslim candidate while Labour would probably have to field Roger Godsiff who while an acidulous local MP is not the world’s greatest campaigner in contrast to Mrs Yaqoob who proved herself very adept in her general election campaign.
In a potential by-election so soon after a general election turnout might well be little more than 35% and this could seriously hurt Labour while probably scuppering LibDem hopes, as to win the LibDems would need to not simply win over energised, Muslim voters (many of whom would have voted for Yaqoob in the general election) but also disaffected voters from the centre and left of the political spectrum who would be less motivated to vote.
In short a “Respect” win in such a by-election would a disturbingly likely psosisibilty, “that said” I doubt that the election will be declared null and void and Godsiff, or who ever replaces him, should he decide not to run again, will find their position far more secure come the next election.
I think you meant “assiduous local MP” but perhaps you weren’t too far off! I think your analysis is more or less correct.
29 In response to your first paragtraph in 29. tHat’s exactly what labour thoiugh in bethnal green and bow, but they underestimated the willingness of other party supporters to unite behind the candidate with the best chance against them even galloway in much trhe same way the Conservatives were on the receiving end in the 1990’s. Let us see even a few hunb=dred votes awray, and a Media ue and CRy and trhe Judge might adopt the Caesar’s Wifea tonea, and grant a revotea.
28. If i were you i would not care if he was two years old or two HUndred Years OLd. the only critieria should be is he the most likely to win. If yes, you should swallowa your pride and Get Behind Him.
28 - TBH, I doubt he would be the most likely to win. He has way far too much baggage to be exploited and I am not sure he would do very well in the upcoming leadership election - most of his supporters seem to be going towards David Davis.
The only MP who has switched to Kenneth Clarke since 2001 is John Bercow.
Duncan wants a quick leadership contest and said that the big battle is between Davis and Cameron
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/06/19/utory.xml&sSheet=/portal/2005/06/19/ixportaltop.html
but he didn’t say who he’ll back
I would imagine Diddy Duncan would back David Davis. Its funny that both Julie Kirkbride and Damian Green are backing David Davis - it would obviously be a way of getting themselves prominent jobs in the shadow cabinet (deserved from Mr Green, undeserved for Ms Kirbride) oh and get back at Michael Howard for sacking them!
35.”DIDDY Duncan ”
Everytime I see him mentioned, I discover a new nickname used. How many nicknames does this poor man have?
27 I thought he was relatively subdued (for once)
The fact that he was less bouyant and forthright than normal suggests to me that he knows he hasn’t got and cant get the numbers needed.
A common theme throughout the ’stop Davis’ wing, which is why they remain desparate to ‘play it long’.
Whilst he’s obviously been entitled to take the views he has on Europe (much as they come as anathema to me) having been proved as wrong as he has on what remains (despite it’s relative lack of interest to the general populace - maybe people get the Government they deserve!) the most vital constitutional issue since the Second World War (I’m counting survival as a constitutionl matter)he must surely know in his heart of heart that there is no way back ?
28 Totally agree
THIRTY SEVEN wELL IT SHOULD BE Clarke or Cameron if the have sense. Both have some batural appeal, and people can bang on about his hard luck background all they like, Joh mAjor had a touugh one still didn’t save him being whipped by Tone did it? Davis is a goos politician but he just doesn’t create a TV Buzz. I think the Tories would do well with either of thise i mention, but Davis even GB is MR CHarisma by comparison sadly.
38 P. I don’t know if you are ‘one of us’ of not, but if you are we are obviously in opposite camps within the Party.
To cut to the quick on the difference between Davis supporters
and for want of a better word (Davis is not above change, far from it)’modernisers’ is that those of us who are confident (without ever being complacent)about our traditional values, judgements and ethos do not feel the need to move onto other peoples ground by trying to’out Labour’ or ‘out Lib Dem’ our opponents in whatever parochial battle we happen to have before us.
Rather like under Clarke, post the merciful release from the ERM on Golden Wednesday(which he supported joining and poor old Norman Lamont (correctly) opposed and got binned for trying to maintain. The economy has run well since 97 despite bad government, (look at the pensions debacle as a prize example) not because of them.
When the chickens come home to roost on this fiscal and electoral cycle, as they surely will, the electorate wiil look to a party with ideas, values and principles that transcend the latest edition of the (humourously named)Independent or Guardian.
If we look and sound like both Labour and the Lib Dems when the time comes, why on Earth will anyone vote for us over them when they can select the original item for themselves ?
Put this on the previous blog , late on Friday.
Impression on the ground is that UKIP doing reasonably well, working hard, seemingly quite well organised.
Appear confident of hitting Tories quite a bit.
Labour and Lib Dems are fighting each other Labour most of all, Lib Dems also attacking Cons.
Impressions are that Labour losing some support to Lib Dems
Labour called Lib Dem candidate 2 seats Crotty, Lib Dems saying the Labour candidate is only a second choice. Hey Ho!!! Lib dems up to now anyway not adorning lamp posts as much as the others.
Some areas had 3 leaflets already from Lib Dems and Tories, UKIP seem to be using the free post well, however their campaign is a one issue and tonight they were claiming big switch of support from the Conservatives - I say they claim because what is “big”.
Interest low but picking up.
Add on today 19.6.05: why no betting for UKIP, they may suprise.
Will you try to give you another update tomorrow night on what they are all saying about each other.
Comment by david seary — 17/6/2005 @ 10:31 pm
Re last sentence I will try to give an update on Monday night
39 - Why do so many Conservatives on here keep forecasting Armageddon for the economy . Perhaps it is because they think it their only route back to power . I am not a Labour supporter and although there are things that could have been done better , on the whole the economy has been reasonably well managed .
Yes a downturn will come but that will be just part of the natural cycle of things but barring some unforeseen catastrophe it will not be a disaster .
It is rather sad to see a once major political party wishing the country ill as it’s only route back to power .
Now , Uncle Jack will be very upset if some of you haven’t lumped on against the Aussie Cricket Team (surely a euphamism for Antipodean Crap Rounders Squad) Widely available at 6/5 or better . Having just lost again , just getting tiresome this , I do feel sorry for them , not . Now come on ,buck up you punters .
BTW report from Staffs South tommorow night .
42.”Why do so many Conservatives on here keep forecasting Armageddon for the economy ”
They’re not alone to cast negative spells on UK economy, the Campaign Group is joining them. http://www.poptel.org.uk/scgn/
44 - Yes ,Andrea , you can have negative thoughts , but that is rather different to forecast doom , gloom , and disaster .
45. ops, wrong link to their analysis (spelled wrong?):
http://www.poptel.org.uk/scgn/articles/0506/p2b.htm
42 , Mark . there is a lot in what you say . However there is one other factor that needs to be adressed . Back in 1992 the economy was still suffering a recession with very bad economic numbers yet we , and I include myself in this , still re-elected old Mr.grey Y fronts . The Opposition parties must show they are a viable alternative and economically sound , otherwise it’s curtains a la Kinnock for the Tories and the Lib Dems in 2009.
BTW , I caught our Ken at lunch time on the Idiot Box , before the masses arrived for the outdoor cooking extravaganza….hhmmm , anyway if anyone wanted to know why the average punter sees Ken as the best Tory leader you had a 15 minute master class . Good joke about the pontiff , looked off the cuff but he’s been storing that one up for a while . Will the last Tory big beast stand or let the Tory zoo animals fight it out . Not sure yet , but personaly I hope he does.
Hurrah Jack W i wish you’d tell 39 that. 39 You don’y answer my point i like DAvis i do, i just fear that he doesn’t have enough Charisma on TV. I have my doubts on Clarke but it’s time everyone swallowed hard and put up with him, his age in that sense is an asset as he certainly won’t be around as long as Tony. If that’s impossible Cameron is the next best bet, alhoiugh it is a risk. I just think both men crucially are far better TV Performers which is what counts.
I think it bodes ill for the future though if the Torygraph was right and Davis hates Cameron, as even if David Davis win Cameron is probably a future Leader at some pointa.
48 - Well lets hope for Damian Green’s sake that David Cameron (or anybody else who went to private school, let alone Eton) doesn’t become leader now or after the next election as he will have to backtrack:
“To elect a leader who was brought up on a tough council estate in south London will send a very clear signal the party is about everyone in this country, not just a privileged few.”
I would have thought Cheadle for the Lib Dems is nearly as certain as Tory for South Staffs. With the partial exception of South Staffs, the Tories won’t have won a by-election, still less gained at one, since I think 1987, when William Hague was elected.
As for Labour management of the economy, it looks as if it’s been good so far, but when the downturn comes we will look at it from a very different perspective. I’m not old enough to remember at the time but from what I read afterwards Nigel Lawson’s reputation took a big plunge when the recession began. And we do have an overvalued housing market according to the IMF, falling consumer confidence, and possible trouble brewing in the US. The UK’s fiscal position has deteriorated almost as dramatically as the US’s in recent years, due to the massive boost in spending on health without a matching increase in tax revenues.
47 - Yes Jack , totally agree .
48/49 , p & Sophia . We tend to forget that John Major came from a very modest background . It’s not tokenism that the voters are after but competence matched with sound fiscal policies and social inclusion . The next Tory leader has got to project these areas in the modern context and with vision for the future and persaude the voters that Labour and the Lib Dems aren’t the people to do it .
Outside of Clarke , the other contenders , to me lack that X quality that is so difficult to define yet we all know it when we see it. Perhaps they will develop X . We certainly need someone of quality , intellect , principle , distinction and charisma to challenge the Labour government , do we have that someone ??..Step forward Ken ??
Gavin at 50 - “With the partial exception of South Staffs, the Tories won’t have won a by-election, still less gained at one, since I think 1987, when William Hague was elected.”
That is, apart from Uxbridge, Kensington and Chelsea and Eddisbury!
52 - We need to broaden our appeal - an Etonian won’t do that, just confirm our party as the party of the few. However, if we were to choose the son of a single mother who lived on a council estate who has made a successful career for himself on merit, we may have a chance of appealing to more people. If only we could find someone like that !
Ken is too old now and in recent times has been more interested in selling cigarettes than working for the party. The new leader should come from the shadow cabinet.
So you might have an Old Etonian who would be a far better leader than say, the son of a single mother who lived on a council estate, but he will cannot become leader because of his background.
BTW, I think John Major is far more charasmatic and a better leader than David Davis.
54 - Just after Michael Howard announced he was standing down , I said I would have favoured KC but regretably he was too old . A cacophony of Conservatives on here immediately denied this but now those opposed to him within the Party all use this as 1 reason why he should not be leader .
55 - When Labour picked Tony Blair he extended Labour’s appeal into Middle England by being completely different to the expectations of a Labour leader.
Choosing Cameron would be like Labour choosing a working-class trade unionist instead of Blair, and if they had, they wouldn’t be enjoying a third term. Image isn’t everything, but by ignoring image and choosing members of the Adams family as our last three leaders we have started with a negative. Cameron is a negative for different reasons , maybe there is a support group for Old Etonians who are held back due to their upbringing.
John Major did have a lot of charisma - particularly with women - which I have never really understood.
52 - John Major went to the same comprehensive as my brothers (at a different time obviously!) and I am a comprehensive school educated girl myself.
Cherie Blair comes from a improvished single parent background and she should be highly admired for where she has got herself in the world. People from my background (working class) don’t admire her at all because of her actions (or perceived actions). At the end of the day, its what you do and achieve in politics that should (and ultimately will) matter. If you start playing class warfare then you are playing a dangerous game.
I have now got this image of David Davis/Damian Green as Citizen Wolfie Smith, the Che Guevara of the Tooting Popular Front
“Freedom for Tooting”
56 - I should say I voted Clarke last time - I did want to vote for Portillo but was denied the chance.
“Choosing Cameron would be like Labour choosing a working-class trade unionist instead of Blair, and if they had, they wouldn’t be enjoying a third term. ”
Not quite, because a working class trade-unionist, is more about their political viewpoint (to the extreme left of the party) than their background (which is Cameron’s achilles heal).
59 - And this time if the Conservative MPs get their way , you will not get a vote at all .
Actually a young Robert Lindsay as Citizen Smith, does look like a lot like a young Damian Green:
http://pages.britishlibrary.net/tooting/citizensmith.html
60 - A working class trade unionist was the average member of the Labour party before New Labour not ” extreme left of the party. “
As I was typing extreme left of the labour party I did actually think that it wasn’t the left of the labour party then but my point still stands, that a working class trade unionist is about their rigid viewpoint on life.
Michael Foot went to public school and I don’t think he enticed middle england…
61 - can’t decide if losing our vote is a good thing or not. I accept our membership if completely unrepresentative of the average voter we need to appeal to, but our MP’s aren’t much better - Major ( despite his appeal to women ! ), Hague, the choice of Clarke/IDS & Howard. If polls show our party membership favours one candidate and the MP’s choose another, the unrest will cause us trouble.
Sophia [64] - only two Labour leaders have ever delivered 100+ majorities for their party. Guess where they were both schooled!
“John Major did have a lot of charisma - particularly with women - which I have never really understood”
we should ask Edwina about this.
Haileybury School and Fettes (I admit, I googled for Attlee’s school!).
Its also funny how the most successful British rock groups are usually public school educated as well (Coldplay are so successful at the moment - not that I am a big fan).
A colleage of mine has met Major and says that in person he is very charming. Funny how with some people it doesn’t really translate to TV.
69 - I’ve met Major a couple of times, he is charming and seems interested in you when you talk to him. Portillo ( who I wanted as leader ) and Fox come across as arrogant and distant. IDS is very good one to one. Hague is excellent.
70. I agree about Fox coming across as arrogant and Portillo as distant (and in his way arrogant). I saw IDS at the question time last week (ot it was this week? btw it was when they talked about Europe and EU Constitution) and he wasn’t bad. A lot better than Howard (my mother was scared to hear Howard; she didn’t understand nothing about what he said, but she was scared about him screaming).
But about 10 years ago, Liam Fox was semi attractive (although not now).
65 - That is an honest comment . Opinion Polls can be two edged swords especially in cases like this .
In the end the Conservative problem is this : Are they going to stay on the right of the centre-right spectrum and remain in the low thirties box and out of government. The Tories have to park their tanks firmly on the centre of the centre right where the swing voters determine elections.
It may be that Ken can only position the Tories to win in 2013 , but in doing so he will bring on the next generation of Tory big hitters and place the Tories as a serious player for national government as Kinnock and Smith did for the Labour party 87-94 . It’s not often that I qoute the MP for Vulcan North but on this he was correct for the Tories it is ” No change no chance “
70 - now I know someone else (who admittedly is a leftish Tory if anything, but is fairly apolitical) who met Portillo and found him very pleasant, though “obviously a politician”.
75. Everytime time I saw Portillo on TV, I got the impression that he considered himself “superior” (like he’s saying “I’m right and if you don’t agree with me, you don’t udnerstand nothing”). Maybe it’s only my impression (and I didn’t see him on TV so many times).
Miguel is definitely a great lost leader (although of course we will never know). The MPs definitely shot themselves in the foot in 2001 (let us not forget, David Davis, Derek Conway, Eric Forth, voting for IDS because they didn’t want somebody so able as Portillo).
76 - Both he and Diane Abbott do always know best on that programme with Andrew Neill (although maybe that is the job of a commentator!) Diane and Portillo certainly have got something going on there…
Gove sticks knife binto KC on News 24.
oN hEAD TO HEAD with Comrade Toybeea, comprehesive demoitltion Job. Totally gratuitous, could have madew his points more lightly. As a Tory supporter i have contempt when they do that although KC is not blameless of that himself. Like ferrets in a Sack at the Moment. If it KC OR DC they’ll have a chance otherwise forget ita!
77 - I do wonder if some Conservative MPs will vote not for the one who will be the best leader but who’s election as leader would further their own leadership aims in the short/medium or long term .
74 Sorry - cant be fazed to rehearse the principle over pragmatic arguement again at this time on a Sunday evening.
Just need to register my absolute disagree though that we need to change and pretend to be something we’re not.
The Public wouldn’t in any event be fooled for a moment.
There is absolutely no point whatsoever winning power on a false premise and administering policies that you don’t agree with only ‘better’ than Labour.
Our time will come, before too long, if we hold our nerve.
One more shove !!
Sophia - Forth in particular, was talking about Portillo’s sexuality to try and stop people voting for him. Views I want nothing to do with.
DD has quite different views. His appointment of Iain Dale as his chief of staff is an example of his views.
Give DD dues, which I haven’t really being doing tonight(!), he has a admirable record promoting/defending colleagues who are gay.
As I have said countless times before, I would be more endearded to DD if he didn’t have certain people in his team.
The problem for the Tory Party can be summed up in two words - Tony Blair. While he stays the Tories, whoever leads them, will make zero progress. The only window of opportunity will come if Blair does in fact leave at the end of this term.
He’s out-politicked the Tories for a decade and will go on doing so.
81 , Tory Boy . “……..One more shove !! ”
With that sort of attitude , I and other swing voters will say to you :
” One more shove into the electoral grave ” Pass the earth round everybody .
82/83 , Will & Sophia . Although appointing Dail is encouraging DD’s voting record on gay related issues is poor . Perhaps a bit like Maggie - she didn’t mind having gays around her as long as they didn’t frighten the horses or get to think they were first class citizens.
What did Polly Toynbee and Michael Gove say exactly?
85 - Yes - Buggins turn may well turn out to be not Conservative but Lib Dem with that sort of attitude
82.”DD has quite different views. His appointment of Iain Dale as his chief of staff is an example of his views. ”
He’s very close to Nick Herbert (the new MP for Arundel)too. The Times pointed it out 2 days ago in a article-profile about DD. Although the journalist (Andrew Pierce) continued the article writing “yet Mr Davis has opposed every attempt to end discrimination against homosexuals by voting against equalling the age of consent and opposing the abolition of Section 28″.
Note the choice of words, he could have only said that Davis voted aginst this 2 things,but he decided to use the words “opposed every attempt to end discrimination”. It looks to me like he wanted to emphasize the negative part of these two votes.
But maybe (probably) I’m exagerating things.
Maybe Andrew Pierce is a friend of Michael Gove!
88 , Mark . The difficulty for the Lib Dems is that “Buggins Turn” may not turn up for a long time . It’s perfectly feasble for Labour to continue in power for 20 years , theyr’e already on course for 12 and 2 more GE wins will make the 20 . Are you wincing yet !!!
Interestingly, Maggie was one of the minority of Conservatives who voted to legalise homosexuality in 1967.
I take the view that how a person behaves towards those around him/her says a good deal more about the moral worth of that person than how they vote on a piece of legislation.
92 , Sean . So it’s ok for those around you that you know but the rest of the population can go hang !!!! What sort of Conservative morale compass is that ??
Is that really a post from you Sean or has your mind been addled by New Labour hypocracy ?
92.”I take the view that how a person behaves towards those around him/her says a good deal more about the moral worth of that person than how they vote on a piece of legislation”
btw even Howard’s team was full of gay people. It seems that all the gay people of UK work for the tories!
I suppose that the great majority of UK gays couldn’t care less how Davis or Maggie acted with their gay friends for the simple fact that they will never met them.
91 - No I’m not wincing Jack . Labour will only win 2 more elections if they are competent enough in running the economy well . I actually think it unlikely they will win an overall majority next time but are most likely to be the largest party but a lot of water has to flow under bridges before then so this is not a prediction .
Changing the subject slightly , I was out Friday night at the Brighton Bar Billiards annual Presentation night , Dinner and Dance - no trophies for me this year - . What did strike me was that not a single member of the Bar staff or waiters was English or could even speak English that well . I am sure that this is common to the hotel trade as a whole and to other sectors of the economy . Those who call for stricter controls on immigration must address the problems that it would cause .
If I voted against sex at 14, am I against hetrosexual sex ?
96 , Will . At 14 yes .
95 , Mark . My own veiw this far out is that the most likely result is a hung parliament . Though I think it’s 55/45 . I still think that Labour has a very strong chance of a fourth term of majority government as the Tories had . After that who knows ? But relying on buggins turn or that Labour will blow it isn’t very inspiring for us punters is it ?
96.”If I voted against sex at 14, am I against hetrosexual sex ? ”
The problem wasn’t at what age is right to have sex, but the different ages used for heterosexual and homosexual sex. Some tories MPs who voted against the age of consent talked about the need to protect 16 years old boy from older men, but why didn’t they feel the need to protect 16 years girls from older men?
btw I thought that the tories want “less state”, so why did they want the state to decide at what age you could have sex?
98 - Brown like Major will benefit from being a new leader without having to change party - you can vote for a change by staying Labour.
98 - No Jack , of course not , that is why both Lib Dem and Conservative Parties should be re-examining their policies and where necessary formulating new ones to broaden their parties appeal . There are signs that the Lib Dems are going to do this . Hopefully this will result in fewer policies that will appeal only to the Sandal/lentil brigade but time will tell .
99 , Andrea . We British don’t like to talk about sex , it has all the net curtains twitching in surburbia . As Margot said in “The Good Life” ………”Wife swapping had reached Esher and that was quite far enough !”
99- Andrea, completely agree on the issues. I was defending MP’s for no good reason !
103 , Will . Oh no you’re not going to be a PPC are you ? Helpppppppppppppppppppp……..
104 - No chance - I wanted to be an MP at 14, lost the feeling by 18. Now 32 and the last thing I want to do !
105 , Will …..Mid life crisis at 42 and elected MP for Smouldering North and Slumbering in the GE of 2017 !!!!!
106 - sadly seeing some of it happening - I’d decided recently I’d like to stand for the seat I was born in sometime in the future ( An oldham seat ).
107 , Will . The slippery slope beckons…..oh dear me , you’ll be in Tabmans web before long……..Commiserations , you’re a lost soul there is no escape………….we will remember you fondly.
Re: the schooling question - Labour leaders have almost almost come from a middle class, public school background; Macdonald, Callaghan and Kinnock were the only genuinely working class leaders.
Jack W - just to be fair what is your history ?
Houndtang, I think George Lansbury (leader 1932-35) and Arthur Henderson (leader 1908-10, 1931-2) were also “genuinely working class” - Henderson, like John Smith (and Tories Austen Chamberlain and IDS), never leading his Party into an election.
110 , Will . “The History of Jack W in Ten and a Half Chapters”
1 . Born at an early age .
2 . Son of North British Minor Arosto.
3 . Public School.
4 . University of London. (LSE)
5 . RAF.
6 . Married.
7 . One Son.
8 . Media.
9 . Business.
10. Obscene Pile of Cash.
1/2.Semi-Retired (allegedly)
112 . 2. “Arosto” ?!?!?! read Aristo . Far too pis*ed to be typing accurately.
Jack - LSE turned me down in ‘91 so had to go to Essex.
Public School - so we have to ignore you as having any role - you are just too posh :-}
Forgetting the above, have enjoyed your posts.
Just to get back to the more boring aspects of this thread, there is one aspect of the South Staffordshire contest that sems to have escaped everyone’s notice. Because it is a delayed general election, and not a by election, the amount the candidates can spend is greatly reduced. Sorry, I do not have the figures to handm, but I seem to remember that the by election allowance in Leicester South was just short of £100,000, whereas in the general election for most constituencies it is less than £20,000. So Ben’s perception about less involvement from Labour Regional HQ, and Icarus(?)’s observation about fewer Lib Dem posters on lamp-posts both sound plausible. So it’s back to basics - door-to-door canvassing and geting the vote out on the big day.
114 , Will . Cheers….oh I’ll have another drink….I had a great time at the LSE…mind you Essex is pretty good , all that creative writing stuff……are you a budding or even present writer ??
BTW being an Essex boy (by education) was it you who put the posh in ” posh n Becks ? “
Will 114. Essex turned me down so had to go to Brunel - how many rungs down the ladder does that put me from Jack?
115 , Augustus . Hi Cynthia , yes the spending limits are far tighter , like you I’m not sure of the precise amounts but they are about a fifth of the by-election amounts except for the Lib Dems who have less to spend because their candidate died . No I don’t understand that one either . As I said earlier I’ll post a report from Staffs South Monday night .
I was chairman of the Tories there under the name of John. Two former chairman are now MP’s, John Bercow & James Dudderidge.
Well, if we are going to play the great game of “Prolier Than Thou”, my claim to fame is that I worked as a Council, passed five A Levels by correspondence course and was rejected by thirteen universities (including Keele) which is probably an all-time UK All Comers record.
120 - We are both now more likely to be leader of the Tory Party - because we are men of the people !
120 - We are both now more likely to be leader of the Tory Party - because we are men of the people !
117 , Graham . Right at the top as far as I’m concerned . Indeed as someone who suffers from dyslexia (or rank stupidity as my housemaster called it ) it’s a minor miracle I got to any university and I even turned down Kings’ (Cambridge) to go to the LSE. The right choice in my case. The irony of it all was that it was a teacher at a comp school who realized I was dyslexic……all those tens of thousands of pounds at public school and they hadn’t spotted it…..me dear old father was not best pleased !!!! A Scottish noble in full rage is a sight to behold !!!!!!
123 - I’m married to a special needs teacher ( Essex graduate ‘ 94 ) which helps expain my views.
I like that Augustus - ‘prolier than thou’ - I spent the first five years of my life in the now infamous Thamesmead Council estate in South East London, and attended a comprehensive in Cornawall - does that make me ‘prole’ enough to lead the Conservative Party? Probabaly not, as my parents are still married and I don’t wear white Kappa tracky bottoms and big hoop earrings. I keep saying the chav vote will be vital at the next election
I’ve solved the Tories problem - their next leader should be the one with the most tattoos
Perhaps a more interesting test for future leaders of Political Parties would be to see where they send (or intend to send) their children to school. The contortions which Blair had to go through are well-known, Cameron (special needs) and Kennedy (remote highlands of Scotland) can get out of the predicament fairly easily, but what about the rest?
Meltham Church of England is the best locol school. I’m Agnostic, my wife is atheist. My daughter is 22 months, what should we do ?
124 , Will . It’s a strange old world , at 13 I the school’s best under 15 rugby player who could barely read and write , and yet a chance encounter with a state school teacher at a cricket festival changed my life !! By 18 I was the most academic boy of my year and off to the LSE .
In Victorian times I’d have been packed of to the army to fight the natives in the Empire !! Pass the revolvers Sergeant-Major…….
About the gay aide of DD - George W. Bush also appointed one in his stuff (as far as I know not in the government, of course), but that hasn’t prevented him suggesting, that marriage should be defined in the constitution as a union of a man and a woman only.
stuff - should be staff, of course.
128 , Will . Send her to Meltham…by the time she’s four they’ll all be agnostic in the C of E , and if they’re not send her anyway.
131 , Hmmm . Are you sure ?!?!?!
130,”About the gay aide of DD - George W. Bush also appointed one in his stuff ”
One thing we could all be sure about: Lord Tebbit will never appoint a gay man in his staff!
133 , I wonder what would Freud say.
85 Guess that’s the difference between holding principles and convictions rather than blindly pursuing power for powers sake.
Regarding the grave …. I need to tell you that we’re all going there eventually.
The choice is whether you die fighting on your feet or squirming on your knees !
128 - you’re in the same position as my own parents. They sent me to the C of E school anyway, which was extremely successful in making me an atheist by the age of 6.
Sorry Sophia, Tebbitt did!
138 - I am not sure that is meant to be addressed to me?
139 , Sophia . I think it’s Andrea @ 134.
Apologies to all. However Andrea he did and more than one
138-140. If it’s referred to my post about Tebbitt and gay staff, I admit I don’t know if he had some (and to be fair I don’t care so much), but I thought he is not pleased to have gay arounds considering he said that Portillo is a deviant, Alan Duncan has sexual problems, that gay rights lead to obesity (that one was fantastic. I hysterically laughed when I read it) and that a gay man couldn’t become Home Secretary.
btw why did the Clause 28 party decide to contest South Staffordshire? Cormack could represent them well. It’s like Respect deciding to put up a candidate against an antiwar MP.
BTW for the New Labour cheerleader brigade earlier on this and other threads this month’s net public borrowing was a new all-time record - and the trade deficit did the same earlier in the year.
Nothing to worry about!
143 Jon, I think you’re knocking at an empty house…
They aren’t the poor damn mugs who are going to have to repair the damage they are causing when it all goes t*t* up and Gilts are being issued like ticker tape and the very hard decisions will need to be made.
That’s going to be ‘us’ - why should ‘they’ give a damn ?
Tory Boy - you might have me confused with someone else unless you see a Tory/LD coalition after the next election! By my calculation you would have to gain at least 55 seats - not impossible by any means.
That said(!) the current difficulties with the method of electing the leader would seem to suggest the Tories don’t quite get democracy and in particular electoral reform which would rather mitigate against it.
53 - ah yes, I didn’t remember correctly about by-election results did I?
Is there anywhere I can look up parliamentary by-election results before 2001 (since 2001 are on the Parliamentary site)?
81-After 4 more years of massive tax increses with modest if any real changes in public services,the reality of the tripling of student fees,massive council tax increases due to the banding changes next year,a collapsed economy & for good measure a dour miserable socialist Scot as Prime Minister it won’t take much of a heave!
62, Sophia, I was an exact contemporary of Damian Green at college (he was in the same PPE group as our own John O, with the same result ..) and I can assure you he looked nothing like Robert Lindsay as Citizen Smith!
Gavin 146 - http://www.geocities.com/by_elections/ has everything since 1945 I think.
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