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Will Thursday be bad for Labour in South Staffs?

June 19th, 2005

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    SkyBet stops taking money on Labour getting less than 30%

Nearly a month ago we urged site users to make money on the postponed South Staffordshire election by betting that Labour would get less than 30% on June 23rd. At the time SkyBet were offering evens on this outcome which we felt was great value for money.

Since then the price has tightened and tightened and reached 4/7 a week ago when Skybet suspended all betting on the party shares in Thursday’s election. They’ve now re-opened the South Staffs markets but are not taking any money at all on Labour getting below 30%. Our view on how Labour will do has not changed.

  • If South Staffs follows the May 5th national swing then Labour would end up with 29.5%.
  • At the General Election Labour saw its biggest vote drop in places where it did not matter – like South Staffs.
  • Labour supporters can stay at home or switch parties without the risk of Michael Howard becoming Prime Minister – unlikely as that prospect now appears seven weeks on
  • The Labour share might be vulnerable to the Lib Dems and coming third is a possibility
  • It’s hard to call the Tory vote but we think that the Lib Dems at 15% or more looks like a good bet even though the price is now 8/13.

    The General Election in the seat had to be put back because of the death of the Lib Dem candidate between the closure of nominations and polling day.

    Mike Smithson






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