Another good bet on South Staffordshire?
June 20th, 2005
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Will UKIP eat into the Tory’s vote share?
With just three days to go before the delayed South Staffordshire election it looks as though UKIP might do considerably better than if this election had taken place on May 5th when the rest of the UK was electing a Government. That consideration won’t apply on Thursday and it’s possible that we’ll see a big vote for UKIP which got 28% there in the Euro Elections.
This could mean that there’s great value in betting on the Tory vote share which Skybet was operating until late last night. If the bookmaker puts up the market when it opens this morning then take the 5/2 that was available on the Tories getting below 50%.
In both the 1997 and 2001 General Elections the Tories managed to get just over the 50% mark. But because of the different nature of the ballot on Thursday the shares that Labour and the Tories will get will be nothing like what would have happened if the election had taken place on May 5th.
In the Euro Elections in the South Staffordshire local authority area last June this was how the vote split: CON 8,984: LAB 4,319: LD 2,728: UKIP 7,819: GRN 1,101: BNP 1,989: OTH 977. Although these figures cover more than just the South Staffs seat they do show good performances by UKIP and the Freedom Party. This will, surely, eat into the Tory share.
Labour, meanwhile, will see votes migrate to the Lib Dems and Greens and could also be hit by UKIP.
This view was reinforced by a post on the site last night by David Seary who filed this excellent first hand report “…..impression on the ground is that UKIP doing reasonably well, working hard, seemingly quite well organised. Appear confident of hitting Tories quite a bit. Labour and Lib Dems are fighting each other Labour most of all, Lib Dems also attacking Cons. Impressions are that Labour losing some support to Lib Dems. Labour called Lib Dem candidate 2 seats Crotty, Lib Dems saying the Labour candidate is only a second choice. Hey Ho!!! Lib Dems up to now anyway not adorning lamp posts as much as the others. Some areas had 3 leaflets already from Lib Dems and Tories. UKIP seem to be using the free post well, however their campaign is a one issue and tonight they were claiming big switch of support from the Conservatives - I say they claim because what is “big”….
Assuming Skybet reopens the market bet on the Tories getting less than 50% - even if the price is tighter than the 5/2 of last night. Another good bet to capitalise on a rising share for the minor parties is in Betfair’s Winning Majority market. More votes for UKIP, the Lib Dems, the Greens and the Freedom Party should cut the overall winning majority. The current 1.76/1 on it being less than 5000 is great value.
Mike Smithson
Picture courtesy of http://www.by_elections.blogspot.com/
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Lord Saatchi on to-day programme - what a load of old waffle. He says “in politics I gather”. I gather - as party chairman he’s supposed to know!
They won’t get the 28% got in the EUro Elections, but I think UKIP will have a good performance.
David Seary’s views largely accord with my own. However I think there is some indecision between UKIP and Freedom Party for that section of the electorate (but perhaps only in Wombourne). Both are having a go at Cormack, anyway.
Labour don´t seem to be doing very well at all - but someone told me that much of their support comes from Codsall.
It´s very hard to get a feel for this seat as the different parts of it seem to have little contact with each other.
Tim Hames ,akes a nonsense attack on MH over Leadership rule Chamges for lack of Democracy? Funny how the little GNOME IN THE PRO BLAIR TIMES never accuses the curious Labour System with trade Union Block Votes and where after the new Super Union emerges Six people may control 48% of the vote and conference and something similar in the Leadership Contest of a lack of democracy. What a fool.
The EU budget’s criris put Europe back in newspapers front pages, I think this could be help UKIP. Their biggest issue is a issue at the moment.
OTOH it could help Labour. I don´t think UKIP have a USP at the moment.
6 Agreed. Blair is firmly spit roasting ‘our’ fox at the moment !
[3] It´s very hard to get a feel for this seat as the different parts of it seem to have little contact with each other - I occasionally wonder if seats with compass points in their names aren’t the bits left over after the obvious seats haven’t been carved out…
[4] Nice try, but Labour requires Unions to ballot their membership before they cast their votes, which in total only make up 1/3 of the “Electoral College”
[5] Wouldn’t be at all surprised, Andrea. If the result looks way out of line with what it might have been on 5 May, expect the law to be changed so that the poll goes ahead and a by-election held if required - apart from anything else, the present law would lead to chaos if a Greater London Authority list candidate were to die during the campaign…
Erratum to above post “haven’t” in line 3 should read “have” - sorry.
8 - see also proposed “Devon Central”!
6. yes, but at least they could talk about Europe with people paying attention to them.
11 - True -but it is also clear that the UK has a veto on this sort of issue and that Blair is using it. I think it could go either way. Generally I think it is a good issue for Labour at present. Purtroppo!
yes, Labour could benefit from this. That’s why I think that UKIP won’t get the 28% of the Euro Elections even with Europe as a big issue.
We can certainly agree on that! I don´t see UKIP getting more than 10-15%. But it is a funny old world…
6. USP? 7. Cheer up at least it’ll hold up the Labour Vote at the expense of the Lib Dems and preventr any embarrassing reduction in Cormacks’ majority, may also prove similarly bebenficial in Cheadle, by sl;owing further LIb Dem inroads in to bthe Lsabour BVote, Silver linings and all that.,
I think what is happening in Europe will help the Labour and UKIP vote, which will mean the Tories getting below 50%.
Saatchi has a very strange speech pattern.
16. I don’t think it’ll stop Labour slipping votes, but it may stop a whoilsale collapse benefiting the Tories, UKIP who knows?
Surely the goings on in Europe can only benefit UKIP because the only people who will let it effect their votes are Eurosceptics
Skybet aren’t too interested in this market—it is still suspended. I’ve made 2 punts with them on it, on the S Staffs election, as per your earlier advice. I tried playing for a monkey each time, and they’ve capped me at a measley £200 (one a 4-5 shot: pleaaase).
Mike, could you get IG to offer some markets—whats the point of sponsoring the pb.com party if you don’t want to be known as THE political betting firm? Maybe spredfair could be pursuaded to open a market?
“Surely the goings on in Europe can only benefit UKIP because the only people who will let it effect their votes are Eurosceptics ”
Blair did what the tories would have probably done. So it’s difficult for the tories attacking Blair and Labour on this. The UKIP could radicalize the situation asking for more actions against EU.
Presumably the fact that Cormack is a member of the Caring party - with no mention of Conservative is due to lack of room on the poster?
4 , A . Morning campers . “A” You really can’t be allowed to get away with the - Labours leadership rules are a farce so the Tories can be too. In the end it’s not the electoral system that’s the problem but the runners and riders in the Tory race. We want it to be a clash of thoroughbreds in the Epsom Derby not a clash of also rans in the Donkey Derby .
BTW Tim Haines arguing that the membership should rise up and tell Howard where to stick his reforms makes some telling points :
“……..to listen to some Tory MPs one might believe that the party in Parliament consists of an enlightened band of shrewd moderates who are desperate to charge toward the political centre ground but , alas are constrained by a fanatical cadre of racist, sexist, homophobic, probably mentally unbalanced pensioners in the constituencies who crave idealogical purity above power. This is nonsense. Long experience of the company of Conservative MPs has taught me that a disturbingly high proportion are themselves a few votes short of a ballot box. I refuse to accept that it can be statistically possible for the Conservative Party in the country to contain a higher percentage of headcases. ”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk
Click Comment and Analysis and Tim Hames.
Why on earth would the demise of a list candidate be chaotic in a top up election. Far from it, everyone else moves up one.
Most interesting is to look at why the rules on a countermanded Parliamentary poll were changed in the late 1960s.
Far better to go back to the earlier rules, campaign suspended for a few days the proposer and seconder of the deceased nominate a replacement and the election takes place within a week or two.
Peter [23] wrote Why on earth would the demise of a list candidate be chaotic in a top up election. Far from it, everyone else moves up one.
Not so simple. Thought-experiment - election for 3 seats by d’Hondt system, two parties run three candidates A1, A2, A3; B1, B2, B3. Party A gets 90% of vote but candidate A1 has died during campaign.
Result: round one, A 90, B 10. A1 elected. Round two: A 45, B 10. A2 elected. Round 3: A 22.5, B 10. A3 elected. But A1 is dead, and there is no one left on the A list to take his place - and with no provision for a by-election the outcome is that the election fails to elect!
I don’t know what Peter counts as chaos, but that does it for me.
In the system used in the UK for London, Europe, Wales and Scotland, parties nomiate candidates up to the maximum available.
The only place with a 3 member list is the north east of England and the chance of anyone securing 90% of the vote is very much a long shot. Although George Galloway got about 80% in the Valence Road polling station in Bethnal Green and Bow - but region wide.
In the GLA it was permissable to nominate up to 25 candidates which the Conservatives actually did.
Since the GLA was founded there have been a number of Members from Labour, the Greens and Liberal Democrats move on from the London wide list candidates.
However back to the GLA general election, there would be no problem at all. In fact there is a proviso for the by election situation that everyone on the list has been moved up or unwilling to serve then the nomiating party, nomiares.
Glorious examples on how lists sytems can engage electors and increase interest in the electoral process.
25.”In the system used in the UK for London, Europe, Wales and Scotland, parties nomiate candidates up to the maximum available.”
In an hypothetical situation where, due to resignations or deaths, the list of a party for the EU Parliament elections is “finished” (there are no more people to move up), what will happen?
Thanks, Peter, I didn’t know about the nominating provision. As you imply, ridiculous… it is a drawback of “PR” systems that they don’t deal well with casual vacancies. In STV, a by-election can gift a seat from one party to another (e.g 5-member seat, result A 3, B 1, C 1 - B or C dies or resigns, A wins by-election).
If anyone can find London Elects (the website for the 2004 elections) It contains the Staements of Person nominated for both the GLA and European lists. The Conservative decision to nominate 25 candidates takes up a lot of space.
In Europe, where there have been (closed) lists for decades and all sorts of bizarre things happen. If you remember the German Greens decided that there members would serve half a term and then resign to make way for new people. In the event, some liked it so much they did not resign causing an enormous row.
In the first Euro elections of 1979 the French places all theeeeeeir major party leaders at the heads of the various lists. Francois Mitterand, placed at #1 only ever attended the opening of the Parliament.
Going back to the UK, when Pauline Green stood down as a Labour MEP for London the next person on the list declined to serve and so the new MEP was farther down than expected.
“In the first Euro elections of 1979 the French places all theeeeeeir major party leaders at the heads of the various lists. Francois Mitterand, placed at #1 only ever attended the opening of the Parliament.”
The French are not the only one. In Italy it was usual for party leaders to lead the list of their own party. Italy is divided in 5 electoral zones for the Euro elections and some people led their party in all 5 electoral zones. Now it’s no more allowed to be both a national MP and a euro MP (since last year elections), but many leaders still led their party in last year elections, only to opt for the national parliament a few days after being elected.
For our national Parliament the system is even weirder. If a party got more seats than candidates in an electoral zone with PR, the elected ones are the best losers in FPTP seats linked to that list. If even the losers in FPTP aren’t enough, we look at the neighbour electoral zones.
27. It doesn’t always work out that way. In the Republic of Ireland Fianna Fail is the largest party in nearly all of the multi-seat consituencies. Yet it’s track-record (or track record in the past 15 years or so that I have been following politics) in by-elections is abysmal. For example the most recent by-election in Ireland was in Meath to replace former Fine Gael Taoiseach John Bruton who had gone to a better place (EU ambassador to Washington), FF had held 3 seats and Fine Gael 2 in that 5-seater yet FG managed to hold onto their seat. This kind of result happens time and again in Ireland under STV.
Some of the reason for this will be because STV is being used and so people can vote for their least disagreeable option meaning that the largest party (FF) is vulnerable if it cannot command 50%. Some of the reason is also down to the electorate being quite willing to stick with the party who had lost a TD (especially if a husband / wife or son / daughter of a deceased TD is running) even if that party had not been the most popular in the original election.
30 - did FF do any better in by-elections when they were in opposition?
31. I don’t remember FF ever doing well in by-elections (they have sometimes held onto their own seats but I cannot ever remember them picking one up and that is going back over about 15 years and about the same number of by-elections).
While over that period FF have sometimes been in government and sometimes in opposition they have always been the largest party in the Dáil and always (I think - certainly nearly always) been the largest party in each of the consituencies with a by-election.
28 - “In Europe, where there have been (closed) lists for decades”
Not in all European countries. The d’Hondt system is still used for instance in Finland with open lists. In some countries, such as Sweden, there is closed lists, but the voters can write a name of a candidate in the ballot, in which case s/he rises in the list and might pass candidates which party has set above him/her.
33.Open lists are in MHO far better than closed lists and could lead sometimes to some surprising (for parties leaderships) results.
Back to South Staffordshire, could the Greens get a decent result or is this area off limits for them?
Greens are not famous for their by-election coups, though there is a surprising number of Tories for whom they are second choice (mostly people who don’t know their policies admittedly).
35.”Greens are not famous for their by-election coups”
I would like to see a by election Brighton Pavilion
36
Andrea, do you happen to have an old score to settle with David Lepper?
34 Andrea - judging by the leaflet on the byelection blog, I should say this is not a promising by-election for the Greens. But we’ll find out soon enough. I wonder if they would really like a by-election in Brighton Pavilion. On paper it would be their big chance - but equally their vote might just drift away.
Nick Robinson has been appointed the BBC’s political editor - good appointment.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/tv_and_radio/4111214.stm
38. I think that in a by-election voters are more willing to “experiment” (no scare of letting the tories in, sends a message to the government and things like this) and so that’s why I think the greens could do very well in a by election in Pavilion
34 - I don’t see it being the kind of area they’d do very well: certainly no more promising than a by-election in any other safe seat, and as Jon said they’ve never made big waves there.
41. When I talked about a good result for the Greens I was thinking about saving their deposit, not about getting more than 10%.
I know some posters seem to take a superior view to those of us who actually enjoy a punt. I spoke to Skybet (after taking a £100 ‘view’ of the 12.29 at Sheffield), when I was asked, on auto-pilot, if ‘there was anything else he could do for me’. I asked for some prices on the S Staffs election. After a management meeting, he confirmed that ‘they’d taken as many bets as they wanted’ on this event. Their book was now closed, ‘and will not be re-opened’.
Icarus at 21: Cormack has said he disliked the national Tory campaign - he supports Tony Blair over Iraq (and discomforted Howard with a critical question during the pre-election debate on the issue) and said of the Tory poster campaign something on the lines of “we aren’t having any of that nonsense in my seat”.
3 - I would imagine most of the Labour support in this constituency comes from Wombourne, Perton and Bilbrook with bits and pieces in Wall Heath. Places like Pattingham, Codsall and Brewood will be pretty solidly Tory and somewhere like Kinver probably has a bit of everything.
Personally I think Cormack will win, but with a small turnout there’s more potential for a freak result than people are giving credit (UKIP 2nd?).
If you ever wonder about your political sanity have a look at the UKIP forum web site.
http://www.ukipforum.co.uk
It is difficult to believe that anyone votes for them!
“It is difficult to believe that anyone votes for them!”
Or more scarily that there are so many nutters out there.
31.-32. last time FF gained a seat vacated by another major party at a by-election was in 1970. Makes the Tories’ by-election record look not so bad by comparison.
That’s great news about Nick Robertson. He isn’t afraid to make a fool of politicians by asking the right questions.
I don’t see how UKIP will do especially well.
As has been said, the general election proved that Euro votes don’t translate into FPTP constituency votes. They would have to get a real bandwagon going to do well and what evidence is there of that?
Also why shouldn’t Gary Bushell get near the 3.4% he got in the General Election at Greenwich and Woolwich? Probably because there are too many small parties at South Staffs.
It is also the (weak) powerbase of the Freedom Party.
UKIP, Freedom Party and English Democrats could canabalise each other and to a lesser degree the Greens.
45 - I found a fair amount of Lib Dem support in Wombourne, some support for the Freedom Party, and not very much support for Labour. There were some keen Tories, but some people who thought Cormack wasn´t Tory enough, and some other people who didn´t appreciate his style. I couldn´t find any support for UKIP, but this might be because the Freedom Party are relatively strong in Wimbourne. Anyway I´m not betting on this election. I agree that there is a lot of scope for a freak result. but I hope the freaks don´t come second!
NIck Palmer just caught Messrs Howard and Blair having a Sober, serious and reasoned debate on Europe, Someetimes agreeing with each other, sometimes respectfully disagreeing and a complete lack of Personal Abuse. My God what’s gotten into them? Is this what Parliament is coming to these days?
Ps May expect you to pass, but do you think your colleague Mr Macshane was little OTT, to scream “YOU’RE DEAda” at Michael Howard last week, left a little sour Taste in the Moutha.
Not sure Saatchis ramblings are worth £5 but first couple of pages is a laugh.
http://www.cps.org.uk/pdf/pub/413.pdf
A taste:-
HOW I LOST THE ELECTION
AFTER MOST ELECTION DEFEATS, the race is to blame someone.
Here, I blame myself. At the 2005 election, as Co-Chairman of the
Conservative Party, I was given a once-in-a-lifetime (or perhaps
several lifetimes) chance to banish the repulsive gloom of a decade
of electoral unpopularity.
When my turn came to blow down the walls of Jericho, I failed.
Here’s why:
I DID NOT understand that Tory pragmatism had killed Tory
idealism.
I DID NOT convince the Party that if you don’t stand for
something, you’ll fall for anything.
andy @ 45 - I thought most of Wall Heath was in Dudley MBC and not part of this seat, although there has been development on the edges.
I used to be able to cross the road and walk into this seat and it is a hodge-podge of rural villages and Wolverhampton dorm suburbs. The rest of your analysis is pretty much spot on, but Kinver used to see “Christian Action” candidates elected back in the 1970’s and 1980’s and the whole place could be described as having some pretty right-wing views.
Iain 54 - you’re right of course - didn’t check the boundary for Wall Heath. Also only realised from a look at the map that South Staffs goes as far east as Great Wyrley. I work about half a mile into the W Mids and live in Shrops so traverse S. Staffs every day. Personally I’ll be interested in how the libdems perform on Thursday but natural libdem territory it ain’t!
I hope we aren’t going to see bookmakers like Skybet pulling out of providing political odds because they keep messing it up. It does give a boost to the Betfair and Spreadfair versions though where they don’t have to get it right. And they’re much more elegant markets now I’ve got my head round how they work. There’s more judgement and less luck in them.
Any views on the Cheadle odds? I thought it was a Lib Dem walkover but the Betfair market doesn’t seem to agree.
To be fair to skybet, they’ve actually put up some prices on the S Staffs vote–nobody else has. The man who does their political betting is a visitor to this site…
But if the punters know more than the fixed odds men, the market will always be thin. (The volumes on betfair/spreadfair are meager indeed). This betting lends itself to IG’s ‘binary betting’, where they can have 2-way trades. Again, they only take very small bets. There are other companies which have their own ‘binary’ type bets, but I have yet to come across any others who make markets on by-elections. If IG are coming on Saturday, somebody could try to find out why there have been no markets on even their their wide-margin-low-risk binary bets.
45 – Andy C - “there’s more potential for a freak result than people are giving credit (UKIP 2nd?).” – Agree with that, I’ve been trying to work out %’s for a Tory win, UKIP 2nd., Freedom Party 3rd, Labour 4th, Lib Dems 5th, Green 6th,English Democrats 7th and Christian Democrats 8th Turnout in my opinion will be low - about 47% and the potential to cock a snoop at the establishment will be there. As a labour voter would I support them in South Staffs, no I wouldn’t and I think a lot of voters will act similarly hence the large support for the one issue parties – then again perhaps not.
I regret I am unable to post a report from Staffs South this evening as my contact will not be back from the constituency until tomorrow night . I will post as soon as I have the info .
Signed : Under this hand Jack Walkinshaw - Stuart
Independent Scottish Monster Raving Looony Jacobite Candidate.
Cheadle By-Election .
58 - It is much too hot to worry about South Staffs tonight like a sauna here in Brighton . In my part time numismatic business , I have sold 1 or 2 Jacobite Historical Medals as well of course as Scottish Coins from when they had their own currency of Merks , Nobles and Bawbees etc .
59 , Mark . “…I have sold 1 or 2 Jacobite Historical Medals….”
You scoundrel Sir……..Grave robbing no doubt….I always thought there was an element of Hare and Burke about you Senior . I think a Highland charge is required down Brighton way to clear out you rogues……..Kinkell fetch the claymores…….
51: Didn’t hear that, but anyone screaming “You’re dead” at an opponent is OTT in my book. I try to avoid PMQ most weeks as it’s all too typical. The Europe debate that you heard is the norm for Parliamentary tone - because PMQ is what mostly gets televised, people get the impression that we’re a bunch of schoolkids. But then again, what does it say about the public that the BBC reckons PMQ is what they want to see?
I shouldn’t have thought Cormack will be in too much trouble.
Nick Palmer [61] - the heat must be getting to you… you normally avoid being bowled through the gate - because what does it say about Parliament?
60 - All legitimately bought at auctions though I do agree that some items come onto the market from dubious sources from time to time . Interestingly Noel Woolf ( sadly now deceased ) who wrote the definitive book on Jacobite Medals used to live in Brighton and a friend of mine is a strong member of several Jacobite Societies .
59 , Mark ………..and another thing we all know what sought of saunas grave robbers frequent……..down Brighton way !!!!
……….and another thing we have our own currency under the treacherous so called “Act of Union” brought about in 1707 by the usurper Anne - Scottish Pounds and notes and coins thereof - linked to the English currency in our own permanent and equal ERM…….the Tories forget about that one !!!!!!!!
66 - At least these days 1 Scottish Pound is the same value as 1 English pound and arguably worth more as the cost of living is cheaper in Scotland certainly than down here .
When James VI of Scotland became James I of England there were 10 Scottish shillings to 1 English Shilling and by the time he died the ratio was 12 to 1 . The whole inter - relation between the Scottish and English currencies was most interesting throughout the medieval and Stuart period .
64 , Mark . Well as you have a friend who is a member of several Jacobite societies , we may have acted a trifle hastily and I have therefore lifted the Jacobite fatwa on you and we have lit beacons accordingly.
However we are concerned that you are posting using Intel Centrino Mobile Technology from the Adonis Club Sauna Rooms as it can play havoc with your Megabytes !!
61. Well if i’m mistaken blame Radio Five Live, apparently Michael Howard had sais the European Constititution was “dead” when Macshane made his “witty” retort, they said it was him. Thus fully justifying the wisdom of Tony Blair’s decision to dispensea with his Services.
Ps I think you’re right but the BBC regards only the PM amd OPpo Number as box Office, maybe more debates on special topics, Europe etc Health Service, kinda like a question time special btween the big twoa. Unfortunatelt Tony Blair seems to regard the House of Commons as one big yawn, i think he will sit the record for attendinmg the fewest debates and divisions of any Prime MInister of the Modern Era.
67 - The interesting thing about saunas in Brighton is that there are genuine saunas and some of the more interesting type but how do you tell the difference until you actually walk through the door , I ask myself rhetorically .
AArgh. Another oner in the Spam Trap. Please rescue Mr Smithson. Cheers.
68 - if you are a true liberal does it matter?
71 - Probably not Rik , as the blood would get hotter in both cases but for different reasons Lol
68. “The interesting thing about saunas in Brighton is that there are genuine saunas and some of the more interesting type ”
Go to google.uk and then search “Brighton saunas” and look at the results…
72 - Yes Andrea , I recognise 1 or 2 genuine ones mentioned lol
64/68 , Mark . Somewhere in the vaults I’ve got three Jacobite medals . One shows a bust of James III and VIII on one side and on the reverse the Hanovrian horse trampling the Stuart horse and unicorn , I think that ones about 1720 or so . Another again has the bust but on the reverse has the map of the British Isles , that one is undated and the last has a bust of Princess Clementina and her escape from Innsbruck in 1719 .
You should , for the purposes of research only of course , visit all the saunas to determine their suitability for a person who is a friend of a Jacobite…….yes indeed……..
74 - I will look those up Jack but not tonight - Are they silver , copper , gilt or gold . I was once privileged to be shown the unique Juxon Medal presented by Charles I on the scaffold to Bishop Juxon .
75 , Mark . Thanks , the first one is bronze and the other two silver. I think that the first one is a stuart lion and not horse as I said @ 74. I confess it’s some time since I looked at them .
Jack W / Mark Senior. What the f*** are you on? We all know you are the same person. The , spaced , out , punctuation and ( brackets ) gives you away . We are also pretty sure you were Kinkel. My suspicions are that you are Will too.
However, I am unsure as to your purpose of these rambling conversations. Are you leading somewhere, or merely distracting yourself? Please let us in on the joke, as it is now becoming slightly obscure. I only ask out of humble curiosity, not any desire to ruin your fun
77 - I can categorically state that I am not the alter ego of Jack W , but whether he is of me , I could not possibly comment . It is for others to judge whether this conversation has any point or not except perhaps to show there is more to life than the South Staffs byelection . It is interesting though that Rik and Andrea joined in at the mention of the word sauna - LOL
77 , Jack W as wel (with 2 ls). I shouldn’t give up your day job for a career in the constabulary , unless it’s the Met !!
I’m on a very large Lochnagar single malt and Mark is in a sauna and who he’s on is a matter best left outside of the Sunday red tops !!
61 - I assume that must have been another Nick Palmer who got rebuked by the speaker for being out of order at PMQs in March???
80-”I assume that must have been another Nick Palmer who got rebuked by the speaker for being out of order at PMQs in March??? ”
Double identities are allegedly very used in these days
80/81 Now come on you one Andy and Andrea is a bit too obvious even Jack and I would not think we could get away with that . Mine is Baccardi by the the way with lot of ice an little bit of coke
81 , Andrea . Or may I call you Rik !! It’s quite clear to me that Nick Palmer is Printz and Tory Boy with a smidgeon of A H Matlock and a dash of Sean Fear overcooked at Gas mark 5 for 30 minutes and hey presto you get a New Labour Pudding , just add Tabman to taste !!
77 et al . And after these notes of split personality I’m of to bed and Mark’s on the sofa…….no I’m not………..yes you are ,I had the sofa last night…….no you didn’t Andrea and Andy had the sofa……. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz……..
ICM poll for the Guardian with Lab at 38 and the tories at 31
http://www.guardian.co.uk/guardianpolitics/story/0,3605,1510834,00.html
84.”Andrea . Or may I call you Rik !! ”
Jack, I couldn’t be Rik. Mr Willis would be ashamed by my grammatical mistakes (he once reproached me for writing “Polonia” instead of “Poland”).
51-Mr Palmer can you please raise the grubby antics of Mrs Blair cashing in on her husband’s position at the next parliamentary opportunity,maybe via a written question with the recommendation that the £ 30,000 from the recent USA trip be donated to Africa.
This behaviour clearly degrades the position of prime minister & is one of the reasons so many people say that politicians are in it just for themselves & are generally switched off from politics.
Apart from being obviously embarassed by it,why are you so silent on this issue?
87 - some people would pay good money to be “reproached” by Rik - Jack W I’d be willing to wager would be one as he certainly numbers corporal chastisement amongst his proclivities.
South Staffs
Labour really goling for the Lib dems, 10 reasons not to vote Lib Dem
etc and claim that a pensioner in a photo with the Lib Dem candidate is a pensioner from Eddisbury not South Staffs, whether anyone really worries about that is a moot point. Labour quote the Lib dems candidate name, I thought rule number 1 was you do not give publicity to the other side by quoting the candidates name, its like a free bit of publicity for them if you uise the adage no publicity is bad publicity.
UKIP been putting up more large posters but I get the impession they have peaked and are dropping back a bit, think they will get double figures, 10 yeas, 15 rather unlikley. Must say one of Patrick Cormacks leaflets was quite good I thought, lots of alleged people saying how well he had acted for them. Been a sudden burst of Lib Dem posters on lampposts, lot of orange about. Labour now using the diamond shape as well, they are claiming it is a two horse race, UKIP say they are second using the Euro elections as their giude and the Lib Dems that they are the challenger, perhaps that is all predictable. What is really happening in the voters minds is unclear and I think all parties are somewhat holding their breath till the count. Best guess they will all be satisfied if not pleased or elated. Lots of leaflets gone out it appears, suprisingly from the Lib Dems considering their tight spends, Labour as well, but not quite so expansive. Met a couple of Conservative MPs was it Friday, they semed in the dark as well - mean that in relation to the election, no silly wise cracks please. Interestingly one Cons leaflet was in the Lib Dem style and it looked quite good as well. Local stuff etc in a easy to read not stereotyped format. Trouble is the constituency so large, diverse and different. Will be interesting to see how the latest European summit plays, Blair said today apparently he knew that the UKs rebate had to go it was just a matter of how and on what terms. That may confuse some.
Hard to see how Patrick Cormack cannot win, best guess is still he losing some to UKIP and Labour to the Lib Dems. Quantifying cannot do it, wouldn’t try.
88 Nick is on the pay roll - (albeit unpaid) - he is a PPS he can’t ask such questions!
THEY ASK WHAT WAS HIS PRICE - IT WAS NOW’T HE GAVE HIS VOTE FOR FREE
90 , David , See my post @ 206 for Staffs South . Agree with yours . my contact put some numbers to it.
90 - Many thanks for an interesting and detailed report David , our fellow poster Jack was brave enough to make a prediction % wise , perhaps you would do so - just for fun of course .
92 - Jack and David , Hopefully it is great minds thinking alike . I have fully identified your Jacobite medals . If you would like the info please Email me on markseniorcoins@msn.com
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