Punters pile onto David Davis
June 21st, 2005
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Best bookie price now 1/2
The chart shows how the best betting price on David Davis for the Tory leadership is continuing to tighten as punters see no alternative to him getting the top job. The best bookie price is 1/2 although you can still get 0.7/1 with Betfair.
This compares with the 5/2 that was available on May 6th - the day that Michael Howard said that he would be standing down by the end of the year. A £100 winning bet placed on that day would have produced a profit of £250. Today’s price means you would only get £50 - or a fifth of what was available seven weeks ago.
With no other candidate having emerged the betting markets, at least, seem to have made up their minds - it is going to be Davis so why not make some money on what appears to be a certainty? It is hard to go against this logic whatever supporters of David Cameron, Ken Clarke or Sir Malcolm Rifkind might say.
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Could it be that the Shadow Home Secretary’s succession to the top job will fly in the face of the conventional wisdom about Tory leadership contests that the early favourite never ends up as winner?
The uncertainty over the leadership is certainly hitting the party’s position in the polls - the latest from ICM in the Guardian today giving Labour a 7% lead. The online version of the Guardian’s story fails to mention the Liberal Democrat share - fair enough, they want us to buy the paper!
At this stage after an election poll figures are pretty meaningless and the only interest to anoraks like me will be the post-election mathematics that ICM is now employing to deal with the increasing problems that phone polling has in finding representative samples.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
“The uncertainty over the leadership is certainly hitting the party’s position in the polls - the latest from ICM in the Guardian today giving Labour a 7% lead.”
I think that the tories shouldn’t pay too much attention to this poll. ICM gave Labour a 6% lead in their last poll of the campaign, so a 7% lead is not so different.
It’s game over. The sooner all those no-hope candidates withdraw, the sooner we can get DD into the saddle, and the sooner we can turn our attention to the shambolic disintegration of New Labour. It is gobsmacking that Blair’s ‘Britain at the heart of Europe’ policy has blown to smithereens, yet our leadership bickering is allowing him snatch our Euro-sceptic mantle.
Grr. Choke.
Andrea
We are also probably four years away from the next general election. So I agree that this is not really the moment for any party to get obsessed by the opinion polls.
“I DID NOT avoid the underestimation of public intelligence, as in
the policy description ‘Lower Taxes’, when in fact taxes would be
higher.” Maurice Saatchi - Why I lost the election.
Think the Tory party should think about sorting out its policies before throwing stones.
2 Damn Damn Damn … beaten to the draw by Wat.
3 Quite so Andrea re the opinion polls … speaking as a strapped on DD fan you could mount an argument that they underline the need for a quick succession (which I fervently believe we need)it would clearly be a very weak line to defend though.
I’m far more concerned that the longer it (the leadership void)drags on, the more scope there remains for a damaging bout of infighting to erupt (and my Candidate to lose !!)
As Wat quite rightly says, there are far bigger fish to fry.
Let’s get the thing done.
p.s Jack W on an earlier string - I’m not Nick P promise !
As a Tory I find the accession of David Davis highly depressing. He will be a disaster. Stuck at 33% or less with a lazy, slightly more charasmtic version of IDS is beyond a joke. Hey, we can have Derek Conway as chief whip as well.
Icarus- completely agree, and another reason why we need DD. He actually believes in low-tax conservatism- a smaller state that focuses its energies on helping those who can’t help themselves, rather than a big state trying to run all of our lives. I’m afraid that several of his leadership rivals have got so confused by focus groups and centrism that they’ve lost sight of our underlying philosophy.
But we can fix all that. Just wait.
6. Sophia, a miracle could always happen. Maybe in a moment of madness, Labour members will chose Clare Short as Blair’s successor. In this case he could reach 35%.
(btw Bob Marshall-Andrews is back in full form and he already announced 2 rebellions)
6. Sophia. Iagree up to a point, BUT, if he really can build a cross consensus with the likes of Damien Green and others on the left of the party maybe it will keep him in check.
There comes a time, maybe we are here already, when the polls are so clear that if we dont elect him we look even more ridiculous, ie “out of touch tories go for wrong leader….again”(Palmers Paradox iv?)
All the other potential candidates bar Tim Yeo (of which there are many) would be a better choice than David Davis. Wow, “actually believes in low-tax”, which Tory doesn’t.
I hope against hope Cynic!
I am sure Damien Green will be a lot better chairman (which he has been offered) than David Davis ever was! And maybe we can have Julie Kirkbride at Health or Education so she campaign, again 99% of medical opinion, on MMR…
A question about tories conteders:
why is Alan Duncan considered on the left of the party? I always read he’s a strong tax cutter and he wants the roale of the state stripped down to its bare essentials.
Sophia- I suspect we must agree to differ. When I say ‘actually believes in low-tax’ what I mean is believing it enough to take action, as opposed to just mouthing the slogan. And as ‘poor’ old Lord Saatchi now recognises, the public aren’t dumb as he previously believed.
10 Sophia - I dont understand your obsession with Derek Conway. DD has surrounded himself with a lot of good people and I think he has the makings of an excellent leader. One trait in him I admire is that he knows his own weaknesses and will surround himself with people of talent to ensure that the team is strong. He also wont suffer fools gladly so I doubt Conway will get a senior position!
I know Labour are making noises about DD being no threat, well they thought the same about the lady with the frilly bows in 1975 - they were wrong. DD would be a great asset as leader and I am looking forward to his assumption of the role.
Rik W, apart from Damian Green (who I actually I do like), who are those good people David Davis is surrounded by?
15 - Sophie we will have to wait for a the “reveal” a little later but I am confident that he will have a range of good quality supporters who will form a revitalised Shadow Cabinet.
So he will only put his supporters in the shadow cabinet?
12 - really there are three factions (well, that’s an approximation, but better than simple left/right): the “One Nation” liberals (e.g. Clarke, Yeo), the Thatcherites (e.g. IDS) and the libertarians (e.g. Portillo). Duncan really fits into the last of these - liberal on many “social” issues but a tax cutter (more so than Portillo I imagine) and an EUsceptic. Davis is roughly, but not completely straightforwardly, a Thatcherite I would say. Damian Green is perhaps somewhere between One Nation and the libertarians.
…and to get back to the point, the libertarians are sometimes (and not very accurately) seen as being on the left because of their social liberalism and because of their perception that the party needs to move its image on from the Thatcher days.
17 - I am sure he will form a strong team from across the party
18 - where would you place the social conservatives like Widdecombe? I think your categorisation is oversimplistic and does not place most of the modern centre right Tories like me and many of the new intake.
As a swing voter I really can’t wait for a DD shadow cabinet with Derek Conway and god preserve us Eric Forth *!?*!?***!! in it . Wake me up when the Tories come to their senses.
BTW , Mike if you haven’t already bought the Granyard don’t bother the Lib Dem figure isn’t in it.
19 - “the left because of their social liberalism” and Alan Duncan famously wrote a pamphlet which argued for the legalisation of drugs.
21 -dont be so hysterical! I very much doubt that Forth or Conway would be in a Shadow Cabinet!
Well yes it is oversimplistic, no doubt, but tries to go a step beyond the left/right idea. I’d say Widdecombe was fairly Thatcherite - she’s not particularly One Nation on economics, is she? I’d say many of the new intake are fairly near Davis - Thatcherites but not without a concern for modernising the image.
18. thanks Book Value. It’s always difficult to place people in the left/right spectrum (we have already discussed about it).
24 - I agree that left right doesnt mean much nowadays. Social Authoritarian vs social liberal does, as does eurosceptic vs europhile. Moderniser is just meaningless drivel IMHO. I like to describe myself as a modernising traditionalist
So Rik, who would you put in the all new David Davis (the exciting new saviour of the Tory party - woo hoo) shadow cabinet?
26 - yes, I think it’s the use of “moderniser” and equating it to “left” which leads to statements like Alan Duncan being on the left, which I agree doesn’t mean much.
How many europhiles would you say are left in the parliamentary party?
23 , Rik . Pray tell me kind sir whether Forth has ever been in a shadow cabinet and I suppose DDs enforcer is doing the job out of the kindness of his heart - This is politics and pay back comes eventually. I never underestmate the witlessness of a party that can elect a trio of right-wing losers…….and heaven help IDS !!
I agree with Book Value’s categorisation of the Three Tory Parties - although I might refer to the “Thatcherite” wing as the English Nationalists (Thatcher herself had some lbertarian tendancies when influenced by the likes of Keith Joseph).
If there are 3 strands (at least) within the Conservative party, what about Labour? There seems to be a “Socialist Party” including the Tony Benns of this world; a “Social Democrat Party”, comprising most of New Labour and, arguably, a “Christian Democrat” wing, of whom TB is the prime exponent. I’m increasingly struck how Blair has more in common with the likes of Merkel than Schroeder, to take a German example. Taking a slightly more literal interpretation, Blair seems at times to have a “messianic” zeal on issues such as Iraq, suggesting that he thinks he’s a man with a mission (perhaps a broadly Christian-centered one?).
Finally, with New Labour having now been in Government for some time, there seems to be an increasingly “technocratic” element there. I’m always struck when speaking to special advisers and the like that they seem to determine policy based on the kind of reasoning one might read in the “Economist” (touch choices, blue skies thinking, conventional argument with a twist in the tail) rather than on any prevailing ideology.
Eric Forth was Shadow Leader of the House of Commons under IDS
But if you poke a “low tax” Tory with a stick and ask what is he going to spend less on - once spending on Defence, Pensions, Education and Health increase - all you seem to get is “we would be save money by being more efficient”
The answer is to grow the economy at 5 -6% (impossible - but somehow seems to happen in the States) so that can spend more whilst public expenditure share of total expenditure drops.
Have heard nothing from the Conservatives or indeed any party on how to do this.
No one believes it!!
“No one believes it” comment referred to efficiency savings
“Eric Forth was Shadow Leader of the House of Commons under IDS”. He will probably get his old job back then. Damian Green is supposedly going to be chairman, it would be interesting/scary to find out what jobs Julie Kirkbride, and dare I mention his name, the lovely Derek Conway will get.
Oh dear, this has ruined my day. I do so really hope that Malcolm Rifkind wins. That wonderful, educated Scottish burr really makes me melt.
Andrea @ 12. Alan is classed as being on the left of the party because the media seem to have begun to put more emphasis on rival social liberal or social conservative viewpoints within the Conservative party, as opposed to economic left/right definitions.
On Philip Norton’s taxonomy of the ideological divisions in the Tory Party (Wet, Damp, Populist, Loyalists, Neo-Liberal, Thatcherite, Tory Right) Alan would be a Neo-Liberal, and therefore on the right of the party.
26 - ah, but Rik - how owuld others describe you? From what I’ve read of your literature you seem more traitionalist that moderniser to me. Pretty socially authoritarian, IIRC.
31 - 32 - Icarus as a former economics teacher I can assure you that it is perfectly feasible. It is not a question of spending “less” on anything ( a relative term) but of restraining overall increase in spending to lower than the growth rate of the economy ie. Spending growth 2.5% and economic growth 3% is perfectly feasible. The question of cutting waste is a separate one and there is plenty to cut as the James Review showed. We could start by cutting the number of MPs, Councillors alowances, the regional assemblies, all diversity advisers, tens of thousands of civil servants, and the race relations industry. We could save a fortune by cutting all the regulation on business and reintroducing Crown Immunity for the military and civil service. Just for starters!
2/5 But before you can elect or anoint Davis , surely you have to agree the mechanism for doing so . As I understand it MH made his proposal for a new system , the MPs rejected it wanting only themselves to take the decision but who/when/where will the procedure be decided .
21 - Good norning Jack , I too bought the Grauniad to see the full figures which were not there - Spooky or what .
31 - A few weeks ago the ST had an article by a US Neocon who said the Conservatives should slash taxes without bothering to cut spending to match . It would be a brave man to propose that in this country as it would fly in the face of orthodox political belief in all the main Political Parties
Back to work now
38 - Jack, its not surprising you and Mark managed to buy the same copy of the Guardian at the same time using the same money from the same trouser pocket. No doubt Kinkell will be perusing it later too.
The Irish Republic has shown over the past 15 years that it is indeed possible to cut taxes (as a proportion of national income) yet increase spending in absolute terms (but reduce it as a proportion of national income).
I appreciate that this is a difficult argument to put across.
37 - Rik, didn’t your teaching experience consist of a year off at a Girl’s Boarding School (o lucky man …) between University and joing the RAF? Did you actually complete a PGCE? I think you’ll find that Icarus is a company director with decades of experience of runnign his own business.
The real ideological divide in the Conservative Party is between those who are ashamed to be Conservatives, and those who are out and proud about being Conservative.
36 - that couldnt be further from the truth! I am a social liberal. I do not believe that the state should interfere in people’s private lives unless they are in some way impacting on others. Thus the state should not be prying into people’s bedrooms or back gardens! I hesitate to say I am Libertarian as this sometimes tends to go into some areas of, for example, drugs liberalisation which I would not support. I support capital punishment and the right to hunt foxes. I support an equal age of consent and the right not to be discriminated against solely on the grounds of gender, sexuality and age. I want to see the poorest lifted out of tax altogether and the scrapping of Browns complexities in the tax system.
I defy terms of right and left - lol
6 Sophia i agree. Let’s be honest David Davis bteer than IDS he could hardly be elseaa, but his victory if it happens will be the moment as in 2001 that we know Labour have won 2009. He just isn’t boxs officea. He may wow Tory Boy, being labelled right wing is a sure way to win his approval, but the guy just doesn’t have the winning TV way. That’s it.
41 - it wasnt a “year off” - I wish! It was a year paid as a teacher to teach A level economics in - yes - a girl’s boarding school. BTW there are a lot of company director’s who seem to know very little about economics. Icarus’ comments would seem to support my point.
42 - why not dugs? That smacks of logical inconsistency
Re. annual growth rates of 5% and 6%, some Eastern European states have managed this since they introduced a flat tax. An idea there for the Tories, or, indeed, for Gordon Brown if he wants the equivalent of Bank of England independence if/when he becomes Prime Minister (in the immediate honeymoon period, the left might just let him get away with it, particularly if Brown followed the advice of Irwin Steltzer et al, and made the flat tax payable only by those on £12,000pa or more).
Vince Cable has mused over the attractions of a flat tax, but the party which included it in its manifesto at the last election was Veritas.
43.”Thus the state should not be prying into people’s bedrooms or back gardens”
I din’t know back gardens are used for this type of things (although I probably saw them used in this way in some episodes of “Midsomers Murders”)
46 - or drugs even (dugs are something else entirely!)
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/story.jsp?story=648504
34 , Nuala . Back to the future with Malcolm Rifkind !! Much as I try to promote Scotlands interests on the site…….Malcolm Rifkind - Nooooooooooo……………It’ll be Ramsay McDonald for Labour and Archibald Sinclair for the Lib Dems next .
37 , Rik . Glad to see if it isn’t hurting it isn’t working back in vogue or and while we’re at it , all those civil servants can just get on their bikes and when the Crown or the military bugger things up we can all be safe in knowing there’s nothing joe public can do about it - I’m sure the Alder Hay parents the Deepcut relatives or the Portadown relatives would be thrilled .
Yes the new improved Consevative detergent will wipe out your hard won rights and kill off 99% of household civil servants dead. Perhaps Maurice Saatchi could sell it for you !
43 - being pedantic, that is not a description of “social liberalism” - it is individual liberalism, personal liberalism, libertarianism or something like that. “Social liberalism” is the equality of opportunity via public provision of health and education form.
37 - since nobody else has mentioned it, I would say that I find the idea of blanket crown immunity offensive. Placing the government above the rule of law is a despicable ambition. You ought to be ashamed of yourself, Rik.
It’s only right that our government should submit to the juristiction of British courts. I’m a good deal unhappier at the idea of our government submitting to the juristiction of foreign courts, as that can conflict with the government’s primary duty, to defend the interests of its own citizens.
52 - James. I think you’ll find that Rik once watched an episode of Crown Court. Consequently he is far better qualified to comment on legal matters than you are, with a mere Law degree, Solicitor’s training and several years in practice. Tsk!
38 , Mark . I dont’ buy the Gruntyuck , I’d get chucked out of the rugby club if the news leaked . No….of the two copies at my local newsagent one is now secondhand.
39 , Tabman . I assure you and Mrs Jack that Mark , much as I enjoy his company , has not been rummaging around my crown jewels…….as we didn’t attend the same public school !!
And the nearest that Kinkell gets to reading at the moment are copies of “What Car” in anticipation of yours truly’s wallet taking a big hit when he gets his car . I darn’t look under the mattress !!
52. Steady on Rik’s entitlted to express a view. Letting the sstrength of your feelings get the btter of you methinksa.
This is all getting very confusing. Besides’s, what’s wrong with Rifkind? Just the thing to connect our party back with the public after years of moving to the right. I’m as authoritarian as the next woman but you can go too far.
Dad, I’ve gone out and bought a padlock and hasp. Besides, as you know, I’m far more partial to Max Power than What Car.
Historically the conservative Party has been rather in favour of higher public spending - as long as it is spent on rich/upper-middle class people (for example through the Church or Armed Forces). And it has been very concerned about what people get up to in their back gardens (and indeed bedrooms). So perhaps Rik’s problem is that he is not really a Tory.
As a former economics teacher (him not me), I´m sure he´ll soon find the flaw in his “just increase spending at a slower rate than growth in the economy” argument, and post a clarification.
59 - Peter - you mean Sutton & Cheam was some dastardly plot by New Labour to infiltrate a mole into the Tories and take the seat by stealth?
57. For the same reason as David Davis. THe guy is just not TV Box office. Most people i talk to he comes across as the sort of nice guy you would mind having as a father in law etc, but PM? Neither he or David Davis are box office. And before i get nesieged my people telling me personalities do not win election s on their wown, well NO they don’t biut they play a bloody big part. Perfect case study Kinnock in 1992, people just couldn’t see him as PM. THe same would apply to Rifkind and Davis,, i am afraida.
What’s happened to Guido lately, i would have thought the Conservativesa would have given him plenty to writea homea abouta.
57 , Nuala . Rifkind has many decent qualities , but as a media performer , he will by his voice alone show that the Tories are detached from reality. The Tories need an outstanding media operater in this age . Back in the fifties and early sixties you could get away with sounding like Colonel Harrington-Smthye on steroids but no more - harsh yet true .
Your last sentence requires further explanation or some on the site will think you’re the reincarnation of Cynthia Payne !!
56, P - Rik’s entirely entitled to express a view, and frequently does. I am entitled to say it is a despicable view.
53, Sean - agreed, although I think it is often right to waive that immunity on a case by case basis. The doctrine of crown immunity is much wider and covers all legal wrongs committed anywhere against anyone. If Rik had meant it in the much narrower sense you suggest he probably should have said.
57 - “I’m as authoritarian as the next woman but you can go too far.” You’ve never met a lass by the name of Sarah J have you?
18 , book value: ““One Nation” liberals (e.g. Clarke, Yeo)”
Interesting. You consider Clarke and Yeo as liberals? Just curious how do you define “liberal”?
51, 52 54 and 64 -it is that form of juvenile debate that so demeans this forum on a regular basis! James you are showing your petticoat old chap, various views may be seen as despicable by various people but they should be debated and not derided - eg I find the Lib Dem views on not sending burglars to prison despicable!
Jack, I may no longer be in my youth, but please leave out the juvenile comments. By authoritatian I mean strong on law and order as most Conservatives are.
Mr Value I’m not sure what you mean. Presumably this is some contributor to the site here?
Rik - you’re not averse to making sweeping statements unsupported by analysis on occasion (as are most people to a greater or lesser degree) - I’d quote some of your literature but I can’t be bothered. That’s what I’d classify as juvenile.
67/68 Rik/Nuala . Juvenile and petticoats !!! It seems not content with losing 3 straight elections , the Tories have lost their sense of perspective and humour too.
Jack, I remember you have described yourself as a former Conservative. I am beginning to wonder whether this is fantasy, as you don;t seem to understand the party or its voters. I am trying to make a serious point. Our party has to appeal to moderates and Malcom Rifkind projects the right safe pair of hands image.
71, but it halso has to excite people. I think Cameron does both.
“It is that form of juvenile debate that so demeans this forum on a regular basis”
Yes, Jack W - it was terribly juvenile of you to mention Alder Hay, Portadown and Deepcut as examples of why crown immunity is an unpleasant doctrine. I think you should apologise to Rik immediately for being so childish.
Alternatively, Rik, you could try to defend your views rather than wheeling out the insults every time anyone suggests you may not be the new Edmund Burke and may in fact hold some ill-informed, poorly thought through positions.
And in a few years Richard Willis would make a good leader, judging by the pictures I’ve seen! I hope his voice is as attractive.
66 - you can probably work it out from the way I applied the term. I’m aware you could use the term ‘economically liberal’ in a different sense but it’s not incredibly relevant to the distinctions I was trying to draw.
55 - I normally do not buy the Grauniad either but often sneak a look at it in between browsing Penthouse and Playboy .
68 - Nuala - Strong on law and order as most Conservatives are ??? Unless you were an MP in the last Conservative government breaking , bending and twisting the law to line your own pockets .
76, What a wonderfully blinkered views, not everyone behave like a few well known backbenchers.
71 , Nuala . A safe pair of hands isn’t going to cut it for the tories . You’ve got to put away your comfort blanket and join the 21st Century . And you’re right, I and the rest of the ABs that have deserted the Tories doesn’t understand the party that thinks that electing three !!! right wing leaders and the baggage they bring with them is the path back to power .
At this rate if DD is elected it’ll be 4 in 8 years and if you continue to flatline , whose the next right-wing loser - are the tories getting the message yet . Probably not , are you going for a rugby team of them , in which case , with replacements it’ll 40 years before you’re done - even Eric Forth will get his turn !
Jack its nice to have a sensible discussion with you. Rifkind is most certainly not right wing, so that negates your point about electing right wingers. And we are Conservatives precisely because we don’t like flashy ideas. Its those people who have deserted us. You don’t really sound like a Conservative former or present to me.
77 - But rather more than a few did and denying it rather like denying the holocaust is what I would call blinkered .
75 - I have seen One Nation Conservatives sometimes been compared to the continental christian democrats, in which case they would be centrists, but not liberal either socially or economically. I also once saw somebody, who identified himself ideologically as One Nation conservative, but as a member of Lib Dems, complaining that though he appreciated Lib Dems, he didn’t feel quite at home in the socially liberal party. Don’t know how typical One Nation Conservatives Yeo and Clarke are, though.
Those are fair points - obviously you could elaborate the classification much further.
Perhaps we should just concentrate on gaining more support from Cs, Ds, and Es, Jack, as more successful right wing parties have done. The decline in class-based voting is after all the logical outcome of 80 years of universal suffrage.
Mark, the number of Tory MPs who broke the law under John Major’s government can be counted on the fingers of one hand.
80 , Nuala . But you’re not going to elect Rifkind are you ! No it’s DDs to lose by the look of things. As for my voting record I’ve posted here before but as you’re a welcome newcomer to the site : 79-92 Con , 97-02 Lab , 05 None of the Above.
84 , Sean . You need all the groups to come back to you , but the loss of the ABs and women under 35 is dramatic and needs reversing. They tend to vote disproportionately . The CDE’s might be a target if the economy implodes , but don’t bank on it.
81 i think you were repplying to me at Seventy Eight please feel free to disagree, but i’m a little surprised to put it mildly yoiu bring a tragedy on the scale of the holocaustr into a discussion about UK pOLITICS. Isn’t there a more appropriatea yaardstick you can usea?
Jack, you are Lord Owen and I claim my £5.
MORI has an interesting table, which shows changes in party support by class. Conservative support fell among AB voters on May 6th, but rose among all other classes (particularly strongly among C2 voters)(though in Greater London, I would imagine that Conservative support will have risen in all social classes). As Nick Palmer has pointed out, I think that shows voters are “working it out for themselves”, rather than automatically voting for a party because of their background, and is basically, a healthy trend.
Overall, we need to increase our support by c.7% to win an outright majority. Where that 7% comes from is immaterial.
84 - The number of MPs prosecuted may as you say be counted on the fingers of one hand but what was the number not found out and prosecuted . Just as Labour councillors in Northern strongholds in the 60’s were tarnished by the corruption of some so are the Conservative MPs of the Major government .
86 - Yes a perhaps strong comparison but if it brings to tour attention that it is wrong to deny or diminish the corruption in the last Conservative government , it served it’s point
I daresay that there are members of all parties, Mark, who have committed serious criminal offences but aren’t caught.
I certainly wouldn’t regard the last Conservative government as being particularly corrupt, either by historical or contemporary standards.
“Overall, we need to increase our support by c.7% to win an outright majority. Where that 7% comes from is immaterial.”
True to a point, Sean. But you have to identify where, if anywhere, you think Lib Dem or Labour support is a mile wide but an inch deep because you are much more likely to squeeze the 7% out of those groups.
Also, if you start winning extra votes from rural communities it will win you back some Lib Dem seats which is great for you but will do nothing to eliminate Labour’s majority. Likewise, a revival in Glasgow or Liverpool would be heartening for you but not actually achieve much in the short term. You need to win votes particular groups - mainly those living in the moderately well off small cities and suburbs which make up the vast bulk of Labour’s marginals against you (and within that those most likely to actually vote). I would guess (and this is only a guess) that this includes a disproportionate number of settled families, professionals, public sector workers and so on.
Re 66. BV. But did Sarah J ever actually exist or was she somebody’s creation who was wheeled out here to wind peopple up? I’ve got my theories. I’ll talk this one through with you at the PB.C party on Saturday.
I dont know - judging by the amount of postings the economy must be collapsing! I meant to reply to criticism of my economics - like all economists (Roger Opie and Chris Allsop of the 1960’s were my tutors) I am right and everyone else is wrong - but the moment has passed.
Isn’t the old cliche, that you get the leader you deserve, true of the Conservative Party - If they deserve Davis then God help them!
92 - Mike, if Sarah J didn’t exist then it would be necessary to invent her. Or something!
“Also, if you start winning extra votes from rural communities it will win you back some Lib Dem seats which is great for you but will do nothing to eliminate Labour’s majority.”
It would be very hard for the Tories to win a majority without retaking a number of LibDem held seats, many naturally conservative seats fell to the LibDems in both 1997 and 2001 and while the Tories must make gains in the Labour held marginals they must challenge the LibDems who still hold a significant number of naturally conservative seats that the Tories need to win in order to form a government.
Seats like Winchester, Bath, Devon North, Taunton etc… are rural, provincial seats which the Tories really should hold what is more by challenging Labour in its marginal predominantly suburban seats the Tories would also be able to challenge Labour and the LibDems in the Tories traditional urban strongholds like Sheffield Hallam, Leeds North West and even seats like Manchester Withington, Newcastle Central and Darlington all of which where once seats where the Conservatives where very competitive with a once solid base of support in the prosperous suburbs of these cities, and yet over the last decade or more the Tory vote has declined and in many places been supplanted by the LibDems.
It is not that the Tories should aim to realistically win Manchester Withington or Newcastle Central but rather that if they are to challenge Labour in its suburban marginals they must also challenge the LibDems in what should be its rural heartland and also if they challenge Labour in these suburban marginals this will have the knock on effect of reviving the Tory party in urban Britain where it has largely been replaced by the LibDems.
90 - Then we shall have to agree to differ Sean . As I have said before , I regard the last Conservative Government as the most corrupt since that of Lloyd George
[38] [42] [46] Utterly astonishing!! “Former teacher of Economics” Rik- this is the kind of economy with the actualite that borders on becoming a fantasist and which got Jeffrey Archer into deep, deep trouble.
As far as the Conservative Leadership is concerned- I have more respect for Davis than the other candidates- but he does appear to have several weaknesses, some ideological, some personal. His thinking on social reform is not entirely consistent- and I think that his approach towards gay equality for example, will actually make it more of an issue inside the party than it might have been. He is well to the right of the British consensus on social issues. I do not think that Bercow or even Green or Duncan will be comfortable with this in the long term. As far as his economic policy is concerned, well ever since a Conservative front bencher said during the campaign “if you want philosophy, read Descartes [not the Tory manifesto]”, it is very hard for me to take seriously the idea that there is a coherrent agenda at the root of Tory economic policy. Davis is far more interested in social policy, but he will need to find some guru- maybe David Willetts- for economics. Economics could become the Tory wonks new playground. Socially Authoritarian and Economically a bit wacko (or “Radical New Thinking” as I expect it will be billed). I don’t think that this will be enough to dislodge the Christian Democratic New Labour, whether under Blair or Brown.
Davis’ personal weaknesses include a love of the plot, and an inability to build bridges to people he doesn’t like- which seems to be quite a few of the Parliamentary party. He holds grudges and has a long memory- those who have ever crossed him beware!
I think that the Conservatives will have some more defections after the second reshuffle of the Davis front bench.
87 , Tabman . Now you’ve charged me with being a SDP supporter , nay even leader , all I need now is to be accussed of being Roger Knapman and it’s a full house . What’s the prize - A Tabman signed book of “The Theory and Practise of Liberal Democracy”…….in 27 volumes………..please spare me , kind people .
Jack W after being fitted with his new hair piece:
http://www.ukip.org/images/stockpictures/roger_knapman2.jpg
95 - Sure, Ben. I was not saying the Tories should abandon attempts to take back Lib Dem seats (much as I would like them to!) but they need to eliminate Labour’s majority first and any future return to power would be base - overwhelmingly - on gains from Labour. Even a return to something like 1992 Lib Dem levels, taking away those seats which are Lib Dem/Labour, would only yield the Tories 25-30 seats which is nothing like sufficient. Battles with the Lib Dems are also often highly frustrating fights where they are inhibited in playing the “boot out the government” card and often have real difficulties winkling out entrenched incumbents.
They should concentrate (but not exclusively) on what will win it for them on the main battle front. Actually, focussing on small cities and suburbs as I suggested would help the Tories in several Lib Dem held seats - e.g. Bath, Cheltenham, Winchester (big on the map but basically a small city plus a bit rather than a classic rural seat), the SW London bloc and so on.
i Winchester
That would be great just to see Mark Oaten’s face.
i the SW London bloc
And of course to see Rik W win in Sutton and Cheam.
Jack W - I know who you are but promise not to tell anyone. May I just say, however, that I thought your work on the shortlived gameshow, Shafted, was massively underrated and British television is poorer without your presence.
“And of course to see Rik W win in Sutton and Cheam”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/05/20//ntory120.xml
102 - James, you may know who he is, but he knows where you live. Or that’s what his friend Gerry told him
101 - The proposed boundary changes make Winchester rather safer for the Lib Dems and Romsey also . The London SW block will also not prove easy to overturn especially if you follow the Rik theory that you are opposing only fools and horses
Feel free 96 to think that but no more holocaust allusions i hopea.
Does no one feel that if/when Clarke/Cameron joined forces theors would be a powerful block in the Parliamentary Party that wqould be hard for Davis to stop unless he won over one of them? How many supporting MP’s might they commanda?
By they by no surprise to see Steven Richards parising Ken Clarke in today Independent, it was a surprise though to see him Praising David Davisa.
95, 100 Surely this is what is really worrying the Tory MPs - at least those with any ambition (or high maintenance wives and girlfriends) if they aren’t going to get back into power shouldn’t they defect to the city, whilst they still can?
At the next election the best the opposition parties can hope for is that the electorate will want to throw out Nu Labour at any price. (Remember Governments lose elections….) The decision for the voters will be to decide who is likely to defeat Labour in each seat. Some Tory, some Lib Dem , a couple Green or even the emergence of more Old Labour, independent candidates. Sounds like a balanced parliament to me.
The Guardian ICM detailed figs are on their web site.
Labour 41%
Tory
99 , Sophia . Knapman - Yuk………..any resemblance is purely comical.
101 , Sophia . Get rid of Oaten……oily oik…..reminds me of a cross between Kenneth “the slug” Baker and Fagin.
102 , James . Gameshow host ?!?!………. Under 21 Scottish ladies naked mud wrestling - Grampian TV circa 1984 . You mean you missed it .
110 - you are Mark Oaten and I claim my £5.
sorry
Labour 41%
Conservative 26%
Lib Dem 25%
Other 8%
Turnout 64%
Those are the actual figures - weighted (by ICM)they show:
Labour 39%
Conservative 29%
Lib Dem 23%
Other 8%
Not sure where the Tory 31% comes from but with the improvement in Lib Dem share during the election campaign…..
Above comment is from ICM details now on the Guardian web site.
112 , Icarus . The figures qouted in the Guardian were :
Lab 38%
Con 31%
LD Gone missing
Others Who cares ………
108 - It must be deeply dispiriting for any talented MP in his or her late 40s or early 50s to gradually realise that they are increasingly unlikely to achieve very much because they are a Tory or an out of favour Labour MP. To an extent it is different for Lib Dems, most of whom didn’t really go into it believing they were joining the natural party of government - but increasingly the newer ones like David Laws are of a type who may fall into that category if 2009/10 goes poorly.
As John Cleese said in Clockwise, “It’s not the despair… it’s the hope I can’t stand.”
Look for yourself - there is no explantion of the fiddle factor. Surely it would not be possible for someone to adjust the figures so as not to scare the Tories into doing anything quickly.
110 , Tabman . If I were Mark Oaten I’d give you £5 in return for several bottles of praracetamol !!
116 , Icarus . Sorry I didn’t mean to imply that you were mis-representing the figures but that the printed edition has different and missing numbers !?!?!
“and even seats like Manchester Withington, Newcastle Central and Darlington all of which where once seats where the Conservatives where very competitive with a once solid base of support in the prosperous suburbs of these cities, and yet over the last decade or more the Tory vote has declined and in many places been supplanted by the LibDems. ”
In some of these seats the tories are almost disappeared. In Manchester WITHINGTON the tories are now reduced to 10.5%. Birmingham Yardley is another seats where they disappeared (10.1%). Cardiff Central is another one.
And 15 years ago they were at least competitive.
An off topic prediction, how many Labour rebels do you think there will be tonight in the Racial and Religious Hated Bill vote?
115.”.It must be deeply dispiriting for any talented MP in his or her late 40s or early 50s to gradually realise that they are increasingly unlikely to achieve very much because they are a Tory or an out of favour Labour MP”
if by “out of favour Labour MP” you mean the usual rebels, I don’t think they want to hold government positions. If their aim was to have power, they would have become loyalists.
The info is on 18 detailed sheets on the web site but there are no details of the Who will you vote for question. Just a breakdown of respondents by party allegiance, age, sex etc. I have taken the party figs and (subject to my pressing the right buttons) calculated the shares.
117 - I stand corrected. You are Simon Hughes and I claim my 8 Euros.
…119. On the other hand in 1955 rural seats like North Norfolk was solid Labour territory; Manchester Moss Side had the city’s biggest Tory majority and Liverpool Toxteth was die-hard blue. Population patterns change. The Tories still won most votes in England on May 5th
But in the wrong places!!! Bring on PR.
123 - good point Countryman. And the prevailing pattern is that Tories are thinning out around cities and concentrating in rural areas, therby piling up votes where they don’t need them. Meanwhile Labour and the Lib Dems scrap for the suburban vote.
124 - great minds, Icarus … PS - are you training it to London on Saturday?
122 , Tabman . Simon Hughes….!?!?! How many bottles of paracetamol do I get for 8 Euros , is there a Lib Dem euro tax on medicines ?
Can’t you come up with a more suitable Lib Dem for me - Viscount Thurso , Sir Robert Smith or Sir Ming himself , I’m a bit tired of these English plebs.
125.”And the prevailing pattern is that Tories are thinning out around cities and concentrating in rural areas, therby piling up votes where they don’t need them.”
but they haven’t increased their majorities compared to 1992 (and before) in many rural seats. So the fall of votes for the tories in Brimigham Yardley or Manchester WITHINGTON is not only due to their voters moving in rural areas.
127 - OK, you’re the ghost of Lord Russell.
127.”Can’t you come up with a more suitable Lib Dem for me - Viscount Thurso , Sir Robert Smith or Sir Ming himself , I’m a bit tired of these English plebs”
Is Baroness Jenny Tonge noble enough?
128 - fair point. Its also been offset by actual losses, highlighted by the overall decline in total Tory votes. Churn, in other words. But the churn is complicated by switches to, from and between constituencies and parties.
125 OTOH Maybe the futures blue as the eCono mist says in the US the Republican are strong in the Economically prosperous States athat are growing and gaining population, and thus political muscle while the Deomcrats hold onto econmicall weak declining areas the Rust Belt etc. Even this redistribution doesn’t go far enough, but it maybe a straw2 in the wind. The Conservativesa are doing well in Wealthy aspirational areas that are gaining Seats. It is a very long process but maybe a Counter argument to tjhose who argu long term demography is against the Conservativesaa.
Andrea - I was discussing Red Wines t’other night with my dear sibling, and we both professed embaressing ignorance of Italian Reds. Is there an equivalent, say, to St Emillion?
127 , Tabman . I’ll settle for that my good man………now here’s a new silver threepence and be gone with you,
112/121 - I think I am with you Icarus , The actual sample results of 41-26-25-8 were taken and then adjusted by some formula whch may or may not be correct to give 39-29-23-8 and then published as 38-31-X-X . It is impossible to put any faith in this sort of poll as we have said before on other threads .
130 , Andrea . Jenny Tonge !?!?! Noble ?!?!?! I’d as a say I’d share a bath with Nicholas Soames - probably taken in a Olympic swimming pool and it’d be a tight fit at that.
http://www.mori.com/polls/2005/election-aggregate.shtml
Potentially bad news for the Tories. They gained well amongst the C2s, but are shedding AB support. Unfortunately ABs are more likely to vote as a % of the population thatn the C2s, who are less likely to vote.
Tabman - Going to the Party on the Tube - leaving car with my mate, former Chairman of the SDP (only in Hackney South and Shorditch. Returning Sunday - do you need a lift?
Is Jack W going to the party and if so under which alias (surely not Mr Smithson)
133. I’ m afarid that I more ignorant than you about Italian reds. I don’t even drink wine. There are some areas famous for wines production (for ex. all the Chianti area in Tuscany. Blair usually goes on holiday there. Politically speaking they are called the “red areas” for their very leftwinged tendencies)
135 , Mark . What ?!?!? Might just as well toss a coin or split the cards . No ICM should get Tabman to read the tea leaves.
New Results :
Lib Dems 97.25%
Con 1.25%
Lab 1.05%
Others 0.45%
Sample 1 packet of PG Tips.
136.” Andrea . Jenny Tonge !?!?! Noble ?!?!?! ”
She is a baroness now.
I imagine that the ICM poll has been prepared in much the same way as any other ICM poll.
As always Tabman, there is more than one way of looking at the data. If MORI is correct, then Conservative support rose among 72% of those who voted, and fell among 28% of those who voted.
However, it’s clear that the most important switches in this election were geographical, rather than social. The Conservatives polled relatively well in Greater London, and the more economically dynamic parts of the South and East Anglia, but generally polled badly in the less prosperous parts of the UK. The results from places like Fulham, Southgate, Battersea and Guildford suggest the Conservatives must have done just as well among professional people in London and the South East as among the rest.
139 - Interesting Andrea. My knowledge of Italy is limited to Umbria (I can’t afford Tuscany and am not pally with any italian government ministers :)), but am I right in thinking Tuscany is/was essentially an agricultural area? In the UK of course country areas tend to be Conservative/Liberal areas as the Labour Party was largely the party of industrial labour (Tolpuddle Martyrs not withstanding)
142 - which sets up an interesting conundrum. If the Tories are doing well in more dynamic areas, will that mean that the oft-mooted recession won’t actually help them after all?
Back to South Staffs for a mo’ and I don’t know if anyone’s mentioned the very significant local issue of proposed developments at Halfpenny Green airfield aka Wolverhampton Business Airport. This is a very live issue in the southern half of the constituency. Has anyone really tapped into it? I’d have thought that it just might affect the Labour vote adversely.
138 , Icarus . I’ll know tommorow if I can make it. I’ve managed to re-arrange some appointments and even er indoors has agreed to come back on Saturday morning and the flights are no problem. But the fates this week have conspired against me and I have the worst feeling that I might not be back from the States until Monday.
Kinkell is certainly not coming , his love life is back on track and he’s visiting (shacking up) some lovely from Basingstoke way this weekend. Lucky Bas**rd. He even asked to borrow one of the cars , but he’s not that lucky !
As for my other alter egos who knows or cares !
143. Umbria is another leftwinged area. Like Tuscany and Emilia, they always voted for the communist party and now the centre-left coalition.
I think there’s a paradox there, Tabman. Some people in economically dynamic areas may be feeling the pinch in terms of rising council taxes, rising national insurance, static or falling house prices, rising private sector unemployment etc. Objectively, they’re better off still than people living in depressed areas, but feel resentful towards the government. People in depressed areas, OTOH, are noticing big rises in public spending, and benefitting also from big rises in public sector unemployment, in those areas, and willing to stick with Labour (unless special circumstances make them switch to the Lib Dems).
That’s only a theory, but quite a plausible one I think. It’s striking though, that in 2001, London and the South East showed Labour’s best performances, and this time they showed their worst.
Oops, that should be “big rises in public sector employment.”
To answer your question, I don’t think a recession would help Labour, as there are still quite a few seats they could lose in economically dynamic areas, but fairly few they have left to win in depressed areas.
141 , Andrea . Having a title doesn’t make you noble :
Lord Archer , Lord Kinnock , Lord Tebbitt , Lord Such !?!?! Lord Lucan…………..
148.”That’s only a theory, but quite a plausible one I think. It’s striking though, that in 2001, London and the South East showed Labour’s best performances, and this time they showed their worst. ”
I agree with this explanation.
The actual voting intention figures for ICM’s poll are CON 31%, LAB 38%, LDEM 23%, OTH 8%. Those are directly from ICM, since the Guardian didn’t print them.
The “weighted figures” at the top of ICM’s tables don’t take into account likelihood to vote or the topline adjustment for the spiral of silence, so it’s impossible to engineer the voting intention figures from them alone.
SEan Fear at 142 see my postr at 132.
45 Him being a principled CONSERVATIVE wows me (as opposed to an opportunistic interchangeable career politician like so many other in all three parties.)
77 Ecclestonegate
Mittalgate
Powerjectgate
Mandlesongate
Bristolgate
Vazgate
Freeholidayseverywhereineuropegate
Cheriegate
I could go on……..
155 , Toryboy …….Electors show Tories the gate……..
Only when the Tories realize that the term “Moderniser” and “Conservative” are contradictions in terms will they stop looking and sounding like schizophrenics. If anyone doubts that this is how they look they must have missed Damian Green on Sunday morning TV (without a tie) explaining why the party which stands for family values is best led by the illegitimate son of a single mother (and apparently for no other reason)
On Tuesday Maurice Saatchi, probably the greatest practitioner of advertising in the last thirty years was giving an incoherent interview in which he blamed himself for allowing the party not to heed his good advice. And this from a man who could sell snow to the Eskimos.
Does anyone really care what this buck passing back stabbing rabble of incoherents care about anything? I’m sure the public don’t. And by the time of the next election when the blue rinses have thinned out still further their representation will have thinned out too
156 That’s a historical fact (likewise our 4 succesive victories from 1979). If you want to dwell in the past, that’s your business.
I’m focussing on the future.
157 - Roger, are you thinking of standing for the Tory leadership?!? I can’t see any other of the prospective candidates achieving anything.