Will South Staffs be a turning point for UKIP?
June 22nd, 2005
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Could the anti-EU party produce a sensational result tomorrow?
There are increasingly bullish comments coming out of the UKIP web discussion forum about how well their campaign is going in the delayed South Staffordshire election which takes place tomorrow. If this long report by a senior party official on UKIP’s website is to be believed then tomorrow’s ballot in South Staffordshire is not the foregone conclusion for Conservatives that it might appear.
In fact the contest is being set up as a make-or-break for UKIP – highly dangerous stuff unless it is based on real activity on the ground. He says “If UKIP do not do well here, then we will never do well anywhere. Fact. He then goes on to conclude: If we don’t do well here, then you have to question if the brand UKIP is ever going to do anything.
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In his detailed commentary on the campaign the official claims that the party is winning the poster wars with the ballot itself being presented as a means of voters making it their referendum on the EU, something that has been refused by Blair.
The sitting MP, Patrick Cormack “has been targeted specifically and the good news is he bites every time. Quotes from Hansard over his Europhile leanings have shown him to be the two-faced lying career merchant that he is. The fact that he is a nasty, pompous old-school Tory doesn’t help either…
In his analysis the official notes two key elements 1) It is not a general election. Government is not being chosen, so a protest vote is much more likely. 2) The EU is all anyone is talking about. I have never heard such hostility to the EU from the average Joe. It warmed my heart!
He concludes If we don’t do well here, then you have to question if the brand UKIP is ever going to do anything. The people are very positive and say they will vote UKIP and funnily always come back and say keep the pound (not used in this campaign!). We will see.
This election has taken place without any real coverage from the media and we are having to rely on reports like this one to get a feel for what is happening. If this man is right then “Doing well” for UKIP could mean getting into second place behind the Conservatives. If that happens the party would dominate the Cheadle by-election and provide the backcloth for Tony Blair’s campaign to get EU financial reform.
Only two betting markets remain on the election: Betfairs “winning party” where the Tories are 1/33 and the size of majority where the 1.2/1 on less than 5,000 look a great bet. Skybet have closed their vote share markets.
MY PERSONAL BETTING. I have put as much as the bookmaker would allow me on the Tories getting less than 50% at 5/2; Labour being below 30% at evens and the Lib Dems being more than 15% at 5/6. I think that I will be smiling on Friday.
Mike Smithson.
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I’ve watched that forum for a while and the level of self-delusion on there is extremely high.
Seems as if it might mark the end of UKIP. If all three parties are saying the constitution is dead and that they want the rebate or reform, UKIP don´t have much to offer. I tend to agree that if they can´t do well here, they can´t do well anywhere.
2 I’m not saying you are wrong, but with all three major parties having completely misjudged the mood of the electorate over Europe for many years now - why would UKIP suffer now(especially as this odd situation offers the chance of a free protest vote)
Their whole raison d’etre has been to challenge and force change on the cosy consensualist approach taken by the 3 main parties over the years. Years in which tough words have appeared a plenty, but very action has followed.
Why is this time any different ?
What did they mean by “doing well”? A good %, a second place or a win?
I’m not saying you’re wrong, either Toryboy! Many reasons for them to do well here. If they do well, we can all say: that’s just what we expected - unusual election - meaningless. But if they don´t do well, people will say - if they can´t get a big vote out of S Staffs in circumstances like this, when will they ever do well?
But I´m not convinced there has been a cosy consensus on Europe. (I had that Ian Davidson in the back of my cab a while back…)
I do hope you win, Mike - we don’t want you grumpy on Saturday
Why are UKIP advertising their brand on bibs? It just reminds me of prisoners, and segreated prisoners at that.
I’ve checked the price with betfair (nobody else wanting to play).
I agree that a winning majority under 5000 looks the most likely. However, is about 1-5 (or 5-1 on) good value? The total money winnable looks like being approx £25. Am I missing something? Should the leading political betting site in Europe be recommending something that its readers can win a maximum of £25 between the lot of them?
You say that you’ve managed to get on with skybet. Quicker than the rest of us, I suppose you deserve more….
I’ve always had trouble registering with SkyBet - does anyone else have this problem? (excuse me for going off on a tangent btw)
How long does a Party legally have to move a by election writ? I’m thinking of Cheadle.
Ps Are the Times and it’s three hacks still being syued by Lynton Crosby?
CHEADLE : Breaking News : According to “sources” I understand the Lib Dems will move the writ for the Cheadle by-election this week for the contest to take place on July 14th .
Apparently The Times confirms this , but I have been out for my copy yet . Is this the case ?
11. A stupid question, but who dicide the date of a byelection?
12 - in theory, Parliament, but by convention, the whips of the party defending the seat propose a date and it is not opposed. There is a limit, but it’s fairly loose (maybe up to 6 months after the seat becomes vacant).
12 , Andrea . By convention the party “holding” the seat moves the writ for the election and the poll takes place 3 weeks later . Although recesses can cause difficulties .
13-14. Thanks. I didn’t know it.
Re: account with skybet [9]. Do it on the phone, not by internet. The account works for either—it just seems so much quicker by phone. Also, they’ll have a lower limit that you bet by internet, compared with the phone (and that’s low enough….).
11 - Yes, it is in their News In Brief section
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/newspaper/0,,172-1663906,00.html
(may need to copy and aste to work properly)
The writ was not moved today (it is done at the start of business), so it will be moved tommorow if it is to be done this week (no Friday sitting this week).
Will a strong UKIP showing prove detrimental to Ken Clarke’s leadership chances? Militant Euroscepticism may frighten some of his backers into contemplating a potential threat to the Tories from the Right, and not just the left. Similarly, the now forlorn Liam Fox may see a new lease of life.
19 - I thought Fox came across very well as a thoughtful sceptic after the French referendum. The impression I have is that he doesn’t have a huge fan club in the parliamentary party.
A strong UKIP performance certainly wouldn’t help Clarke.
20. ” - I thought Fox came across very well as a thoughtful sceptic after the French referendum”
Book Value, are you falling for the tories charm?
While I’ll certainly be watching the contest tomorrow with renewed interest, I’d point out how subjective the posting really is. Apart from the comment about the number of UKIP posters, all it seems to amount to is a general feeling that the campaign is going well. As a pretty experienced (Tory) activist, all I can say is that I’ve known too many campaigns where there’s been an upbeat atmosphere, campaigners left, right and centre, minimal sign of other parties, a litany of amusing and cheery anecdotes from every activist about how the battle is going - and then on the night a shattering result. I’m not saying the poster is necessarily wrong, but it would take some serious canvass returns before I’d be inclined to put stock in his optimism.
As a pretty experienced Lib Dem activist I should like to say that I agree with every word of that!
Mr Smithson thought you especially harsh on Charlie Kennedy yesterday see my post on the Davis thread at 248. Maybe he’s not all bad for youa!
I have it on very good authority that Cheadle will be on 14th July. The writ will be moved tomorrow am by Lib Dem Chief Whip (and MP for Hazel Grove) tomorrow.
Are any bookies taking bets on the date?
“Two-face lying career merchant?” UKIP doesn’t stand for good old-fashioned British virtues like a minimum of civility, then? What b*llocks - Cormack may not be the most, um, informal and streetwise of blokes, but he has no detectable career interest and I’d think it extremely unlikely that he lies about anything.
I’ve not been on the S Staffs doorstep, but colleagues who have say Labour is in fairly good heart - not expecting anything sensational, but nothing awful either. Pretty low poll, probably.
Labour selects for Cheadle on Tuesday.
27. ““Two-face lying career merchant?” UKIP doesn’t stand for good old-fashioned British virtues like a minimum of civility, then? What b*llocks ”
Nick Palmer, if you’re asking for a minimum of civility, it’s not good to write ” b*llocks” in the next sentence.
“I’ve not been on the S Staffs doorstep, but colleagues who have say Labour is in fairly good heart ”
It all depends from who these colleagues are. Some of them are not very good to understand the sound from the ground. Stephen Twigg and Bob Marshall-Andrews are two examples.
27. speaking of twigg we are aall sure we will be seeing him the ex mps for shipley and welwyn hatfield popping up in safe labour seats come the next election, should the axe fall in broxtowe next time mr palmer will you look to bounce back or would you walk away?
29. It all depends from how many Labour MPs in safe seats will retire next time. If some London MPs will retire, I could see Twigg trying to get selected, but if no London MPs will retire next time, it will be more difficult for him to find a seat. He could be parachuted in a total different area, but maybe it’s not good to risk to have a new Peter Law around.
UKIP came 3rd at the Hartlepool by-election, polling 10.2 %.
That would be the benchmark they have to aim for, then ?
Alan, that’s an interesting question. It’s very easy for a ’senior UKIP official’ to say that if they don’t really pull off a spectacular, “then you have to question if the brand UKIP is ever going to do anything”. But as long as you put the bar for ‘anything’ a bit higher than getting a few councillors and MEPs (and even, one day, possibly, the odd MP on the charismatic Galloway formula), then everyone outside UKIP and probably plenty inside UKIP knew that anyway. So for them the question is only how much they can cause upsets and embarrassments. UKIP might be downbeat if they come third tomorrow, because it signals they’re unlikely ever to get into Downing Street, but for everyone who took that unlikelihood as a given, it will be rather more impressive, and rather more embarrassing to the fourth-placed party.
27 & 28: I think, Andrea, that you are deceived by a word; an obscenity may be inadvisable, but that one is mild — especially when you consider what the comment about Mr Cormack said. (Would ‘rubbish’ have made you happier?) I don’t want parliament to be a cosy private club, but I am very happy to see Nick Palmer supporting an opponent for whom he evidently has no special liking when said opponent is viciously and unreasonably attacked. Recall his comment (to a constituent) about Oliver Letwin’s being a nice chap; and, illustrating my point (I hope), isn’t it satisfactory that the three MPs (from three different parties) in Dorset who were reckoned to be on the chopping block at the GE all survived, probably because, according to rumour, they were more decent, honest and truthful than their opponents?
33. To be fair I’ve no problem with Nick Palmer using the word “b*llocks” like I’ve no problem to see Cormack referred as a “Two-face lying career merchant”.
Nick Palmer, MP, wrote:
“Two-face lying career merchant?” UKIP doesn’t stand for good old-fashioned British virtues like a minimum of civility, then? What b*llocks - Cormack may not be the most, um, informal and streetwise of blokes, but he has no detectable career interest and I’d think it extremely unlikely that he lies about anything.
Reply:
He isn’t a Blairite MP then, I take it if it’s unlikely he doesn’t lie about anything.
I see Blair’s lie of the week is about the EU rebate: saying it was safe and he “will not negotiate it away - period,” two weeks ago and yesterday saying it is “an anomoly that has to go.”
If you don’t lie about anything Mr Palmer, do you disassociate yourself from those two contradictory statements?
How you can talk about civility of UKIP, after a Labour election campaign of lies (eg Tory spending cuts), continued lies from your leader, and then to use the word b*llocks in the next line is beyond me.
Lampposts in Wombourne seem to be split fairly evenly six ways. But then, lampposts find it tricky to get to the polling station.
35 - Printz - do you ever bore yourself as well?
33.”isn’t it satisfactory that the three MPs (from three different parties) in Dorset who were reckoned to be on the chopping block at the GE all survived, probably because, according to rumour, they were more decent, honest and truthful than their opponents”
In Dorset South it wasn’t difficult to be more decent than the tory opponent. Glad that the tories candidate was defeated. He deserved it.
GQ wrote:
35 - Printz - do you ever bore yourself as well?
Reply:
As well as who? Not you surely?
Here is a post from a few threads ago which is more in tune with this thread - 45 – Andy C - “there’s more potential for a freak result than people are giving credit (UKIP 2nd?).” – Agree with that, I’ve been trying to work out %’s for a Tory win, UKIP 2nd., Freedom Party 3rd, Labour 4th, Lib Dems 5th, Green 6th,English Democrats 7th and Christian Democrats 8th Turnout in my opinion will be low - about 47% and the potential to cock a snoop at the establishment will be there. As a labour voter would I support them in South Staffs, no I wouldn’t and I think a lot of voters will act similarly hence the large support for the one issue parties – then again perhaps not.
I don’t know how typical I am of the average voter - how many Vinos are there against the Mike Smithsons? I note that only 3 posters have submitted estimates of the results.
25 - P - Mike is right about CK - Lib Dems should have polled 26% - 30% during the GE - he blew it.
40 - that’s easy to answer Vino - you’re not typical of the average voter. The average voter does not frequent political discussion websites. Politics doesn’t generally trouble them except infrequently.
Notwithstanding that, I would agree with you that there is scope for UKIP to poll well here if Cormack is Europhile, given the latest shenanigans over the EU constitution and budget.
39 - you managed to not slag off NuLab in that post! Well done.
42 - Careful GQ - exclamation marks are in short supply at the moment following the entry into the market of a mystery purchaser. He is known to have bought up all remaining stocks. Question marks, however, are pentiful? The problem, though, is you end up reading like some under 30? Who speaks with Australian Rising Intonation?
Pah, nothing wrong with being under 30, yeah?
41 - Tabman - agree but am I more representative of the average voter in my views than say you - no insult intended - because I mix with more “average ” voters ?
45 - with the greatest respect, Vino, how do you know how many average voters I mix with? The butler, for example. Then there’s the chauffeur, the gardener, head cook, sculler maid, footmen, under gardeners, painters, decorators, publicans, etc etc - the list is endless.
I suspect you’re also Jack W/ Mark Senior / Kink’ell (A contraction of “Kinky as Hell”, I’ve discovered) as you leave spaces after your punctuation in the same manner. Like this ?
46.”I suspect you’re also Jack W/ Mark Senior / Kink’ell (A contraction of “Kinky as Hell”, I’ve discovered) as you leave spaces after your punctuation in the same manner. Like this ? ”
All these double identities are driving me crazy. Everytime I read a reply, I start to wonder who really wrote it.
At least I can recognize Rik W thanks all the exclamation marks he usually use. Or maybe he has a double identity who doesn’t use exclamation marks. I’m starting to sound like Jessica Fletcher in “Murder She Wrote” (I don’t if it’s aired in UK too).
Andrea - you, at least, are unique!
Angela Lansbury - I remember it from the 1980s. I suspect its still on cable / satellite TV somewhere.
I remember it too. And Angela Lansbury’s cousin taught my sister physics, or so she said (my sister said, rather than Angela).
“Physics She Taught”
48.”Andrea - you, at least, are unique!”
and I don’t know if it’s a good or a bad thing
“I remember it from the 1980s. I suspect its still on cable / satellite TV somewhere.”
Here we have reruns on state TV daily. Yesterday it was even on primetime.
49.”I remember it too. And Angela Lansbury’s cousin taught my sister physics, or so she said (my sister said, rather than Angela). ”
And Angela Lansbury is the granddaughter of George Lansbury, the British Labour Party leader in 1930s.
45 - Tabman - thank you for putting me in with such illustrious company - back to South Staffs - how do you think the Lib Dems will perform ? - and don’t say it’s not our natural territory.
Various - Back from the pub talking to and playing Bar Billiards with real voters . Definitely not Jack as he is a wine bar man . I still suspect my forecast that Lib Dems will come 4th may happen but as I have no local knowledge of South Staffs I may be wrong .
Andrea 47. As well as multi-identities another feature on the site is that several people pose as the same person. One famous pre-General Election poster had more than eight IP addresses in a week and the style was easy to copy.
We also had at least one phoney Rik at one stage - again his style is easy to parody.
The alternative is to force everybody to register before they can post. I prefer it like this.
Reagrding the last two countermanded polls. In 1951, general election day was October 25th. The poll in Barnsley (caused by the death of the Labour candidate) was held on November 8th.
In 1950, general election day was February 23rd and the countermanded poll at Manchester, Moss Side (caused by the death of the Conservative candidate) was held on March 9th.
54.”Andrea 47. As well as multi-identities another feature on the site is that several people pose as the same person. One famous pre-General Election poster had more than eight IP addresses in a week ”
It could be the same person posting from different computers. If you check my IP adresses, you should find a lot of them, because I made some posts not using by computer at home, but using the computers of the university (so I suppose everytime I chenged a computer, I have a different IP address).
btw who is this pre-election poster? Is he/she still with us?
Vino, 26% or more? Maybe if IDS had been Leader. YOu really thought you might have polled that?
54 - Even registration will not stop multiple IDs , short of asking people to produce one of the new government ID cards it would involve you in spending an inordinate amount of time verifying everyone .
Anyway , I am who I say I am - type my name and Bar Billiards into Google and you find some references to me perhaps even a pic or two
54 - depending on your ISP, you might have a different IP address (though probably with the first three quarters the same) each time you start your PC. Still, I wonder who it was.
Having different IP addresses for the same person means nothing. Far more interesting is ‘different’ people having the same IP address.
I have discovered a great new sport. In Google, search for the pages where Mark Senior, Vino and Jack W are all present simultaneously (using the search string below) and then view the Google cache of the threads, which conveniently highlight the comments by each, in different colours.
Then imagine how delightfully yet seriously insane someone would have to be to sit there for hours on end, having conversations with himself about whether there’s an ‘e’ in ‘West Bridg(e)ford’ and so on…
I’m now seriously regretting that I can’t make Saturday’s party (I’m in Cambridge for a friend’s engagement party) — there could be some interesting characters present.
site:politicalbetting.com “comment by vino” “comment by jack w” “comment by Mark Senior”
Mark [58] - which the of the pb.com regulars is trying to bash you over the head in your photo?
62 - AH That photo was at the World Bar Billiard Championships in Jersey a few years ago . I have changed my hairstyle somewhat since then , women tend to have controlling influences on how you look LOL .
Fellow spotters may find this link interesting:
http://www.london.gov.uk/assembly/assemmtgs/2005/mqtmay25/mqtmay25Item03appB.pdf
64 - Thanks. Interesting the two biggest majorities are for opposite parties on opposite sides of Croydon - presumably you could fill it with marginals by drawing the boundaries differently.
From Rik’s new CV - “I obtained the highest vote (other than MPs) for our party in our most successful region in 2005″
64 - Section on second places is interesting. The Tories did far worse than I had imagined.
I thought Vino’s effort was extraordinary - saying CK blew it by not getting 26-30% when during the campaign itself he was saying we would get less than 20%. It is a great pity it isn’t possible to collate the comments of individual posters. Some of them appear to have “enviable moral flexibility”.
Personally I hope and expect CK will remain leader for the next General Election.
68 - The Lib Dem vote in the County Council elections was well over 26% , the task for CK or another leader is to translate that % into the same GE %
67 - The second places which the Conservatives lost in London were, in the main, useless second places (East and West Ham, Tottenham, Hackney North and so on). These constituencies wouldn’t elect a Conservative in a million years.
The Conservative vote in London is actually much more efficiently distributed than it was in 1997 or 2001, as indeed, is the anti-Labour vote generally.
67& 70 - in 1997 and 2001 we suffered from too even a spread. Sean is absolutely right on this.
I agree with Rik for once. Clearly the Tories would rather not lose poor second places in Lewisham Deptford or wherever to the Lib Dems but if it is a choice between getting the votes there or in Putney, there is no question which they would prefer. You can think of quite a few examples around the country, though, where the Tories are in third in seats which were held by them in recent times (as late as 1992 and certainly in the 1980s landslides).
64. you got more votes than some elected MPs. It must be a little bit frustrating.
Andrea - nearly everyone got more votes than the MP for the Western Isles….
74. I meant % of votes.
[64] Thanks Rik- I found this quite interesting. I must say that I share the view of Hamlet at [67]- the Tories did worse than I thought. The targeting strategy was more effective, and clearly turning some distant seconds into distant thirds is not a major problem. However several third places across the country were in seats that the Conservatives had previously held-and this should give them pause for thought. Secondly if the Tories are actually going to be in government they have got to broaden the number of seats where they are on the attack. I think that the Tories may have maximised the number of seats they could get at such a low percentage- without increasing their overall percentage only the distortions of FPTP will give them any progress- and this lack of ambition may prove to be their downfall.
76 - although when Labour got their 1997 landslide, they had no great difficulty coming from third to take seats and indeed there were examples this time of the Lib Dems coming from third. It is nice to be able to show people a bar chart which says you are in second - but it isn’t actually vital. It may be more important for the Lib Dems, who have to do more to establish themselves as clear contenders in people’s minds.
However, I can think of examples of seats the Tories held in 1992 (and certainly earlier elections) where they are not just third but effectively lifeless in terms of activity.
James O @76, in general terms, there is truth in what you say. In London though, I don’t think there is any seat in which the Tories need to worry about having falling from second to third place. With the exceptions of Finchley and Enfield North, they put on votes precisely where they needed them, and lost them where they didn’t need them.
Ken Livingstone seems to be selective in which parties he covers though. You can’t just pretend that no-one voted BNP or National Front in London. Both of which polled more than Veritas.
” I think that the Tories may have maximised the number of seats they could get at such a low percentage”
I’m not sure. If every constituency had moved in a uniform fashion since 1992, the Conservatives would have won 230 to 240 seats. I imagine that that would be the absolute maximum they could win on 33%, unless Labour fell below 30%.
[78] Yes true in London, but I was making that more general comment. [80] Also true, but that would would make targetting irrelevent, which it clearly was not. The Tories have to fight an inherent bias in the current system against them so I think they may well have more or less maximised what they can acheive on such a low vote at this point.
[77] It is only if they are increasing their vote across the country that the Tories can move from third to first in seats- I agree it is possible though. Just not very likely unless the party pulls its socks up pretty drastically, which they show little sign of doing.
Hamlet (67) and James (76), I don’t think you can call dropping from second to third in places like East and West Ham (due to the emergence of RESPECT) as worrying at all.
My impression is that UKIP were peaking last week. Lot of activity by the Cons and Lib Dems over and since the weekend.
The main Labour vote is miles away from Wombourne, it is the area just south of Cannock, Great Wryley, Landywood and Cheslyn Hay.
In that locality the Lib Dems have apparently done up to 6 deliveries. They have dominated the lamposts on the main road through the area since the weekend. Labour leaflets do not appear up to the quality in presentation as the Cons and Liberal Democrats. UKIP were putting beer mat imitations round yesterday saying “tell them what you think of them” all anti Europe stuff. Lab concentrating on anti social behaviour and how good they are at dealing with it, nobody comment please, Lib Dems on about Council tax revaulation, closure of things like a Post Office and the Airport(again no comments please) Cons working on Patrick Cormack the man you know, who works for you etc, trust, think its fairly effective. It is a beautiful day in the constituency which should help turnout. I reckon it will be 45% maybe more.
Result so hard to predict it is so widespread and issues in one area are not an issue 15 miles away, guess Cons 40-45, Labour 20-25, Lib Dem 18-22(therefore LD could possibly head Labour), UKIP 12-14, Others 5, BUT that is only a bit of fun. No one knows and second place could in theory go to either Lab, Lib Dem or UKIP. a betting man would put it in that order, yes
If I was Labour I would be worried by Nicks comments that others who have been are “fairly” satisfied. Does not sound good to me. Lib Dem agent said he was more optimistic now than 3 weeks ago, what does that mean, take that two ways, optimistic about what.
Meanwhile Cons have fought a sort of diligent quiet campaign, UKIP all shout and bluster.
If UKIP do well here and get a publicity boost, Cheadle , does that mean it will then be safe for the Liberal Democrats, or . Will know this time tomorrow.
Jon @ 68 — ‘It is a great pity it isn’t possible to collate the comments of individual posters.’
This is easily do-able at Google. You can search for individual posters’ comments on a particular month or day. For example, to search for all Vino’s comments in April, type the following into Google:
site:politicalbetting.com “comment by vino * */4/2005″ “comment by vino”
We find that he commented on around 50 threads in April. Viewing the cache highlights his contributions. Just swap the second asterisk for a number to search on a specific day.
David Seary @ 82: The LibDems seem to be going a bit strange: ‘They have dominated the lampposts on the main road through the area since the weekend.’ An entertaining image; do you have photos, by any chance?
Mike, I was a bit surprised you were talking up UKIP on this thread, but then, I’ve got no local knowledge.
31, 32, asking what would be a good result for UKIP, would it be over 10% matching or beating Hartlepool? Well I guess so. But Peter, in the long view of politics, political parties do occasionally come from nowhere to take power. But it seems to take decades. Examples include Labour in the early 20th century; and if you’ll excuse the distant comparison, the BJP in India in the second half of the 20th century.
Then again, maybe I’m just an optimistic Lib Dem.
Re 85.
Do not know where you are from, please declare but in the West Midlands area lamp posts are heavily adorned by everyone and there is it seems almost a contest to see who can get the most posters up on lamposts.
Bloody daft if you ask me but there it is. Hence UKIP talking about a poster war, it is not in windows it is on lampposts! As I said from the weekend the LIB Dems in that area went from hardly any to loads.
The road I referred to is a main road through that one part of this large constituency , ie Great Wrley, Cheslyn Hay etc. Forgeot to mention other strongish Labour area, Featherstone, not the new estates.
Does this help you, as I have said earlier I fancy everyone will come out of this with something positive to say. We won, we came second, we held our vote, we increased our % sort of thing.
David Seary @ 87: Thanks for your comment; I was just being facetious, but I reckon you’ve given me a clearer understanding of ‘campaigning’. Keep up the good sense. PS Where I live in Oxfordshire we don’t have any lampposts — until now I’d thought of this as backward, but now I see the advantages.
88 - Pob, was it your dad who was from Moffat. I’m sure he must have been happy to see it has a Tory MP after 8 long years of Labour.
68 - Jon -”I thought Vino’s effort was extraordinary” thanks for the compliment - I bet on the Lib Dems not to increase their % share of the vote - got it wrong - but the potential for the LD’s to take off was there - unpopular opposition,unpopular government but only managed 22% despite being anti-Iraq etc.Your lack of policies did you no favours and I blame CK - the anti-government vote went to “others” - why? - if it had gone to you the Lds would have obtained 26% at least.
I’m pleased they didn’t.
Max @ 89: Yes, that’s right. He was delighted to get your message of hope and encouragement, surprised and pleased to see the result in DC&T, and looks forward to buying you a drink at the earliest opportunity.
90.”the anti-government vote went to “others””
Labour lost 5.4% and the libdems gained 3.8%. So someone could say that the majority of the anti-government vote went to them.
92 - Andrea - “others” also gained 3.8% so the potential for the Lib Dems was 7.6 % which they didn’t obtain - why?
93. maybe because voters left Labour for different reasons. I find difficult for every Libdems leader, not only for Kennedy, to attract a eurosceptic voter who switched from Labour to UKIP because he found Blair too europeist.
93. Vino, you must have a different definition of ‘others’ from the rest of us. In GB the share for candidates who were not Con, Lab or LD went up from 6.5% to 8.4%.
95 - Lorcan - I was using BBC website figues for the UK share of the vote as Lab 35.3%,Con 32.3, LD 22.1% “Others” 10.3 % - is this wrong?
96. That 10% contains Irish parties too.
96 - All the Northern Ireland parties count as others in the UK stats.
97 - I’m not sure if the DUP and UUP would be too happy to be called Irish!
Max @ 89: I posted a message but I can’t see it now; maybe I pressed the wrong button. I wanted to say: yes, it was me (or rather my dad); he was delighted to get your message of hope and support, and even more to see the result in DC&T; and he hopes to have the pleasure of buying you a drink as soon as possible. Many thanks!
96. Vino, If you include Northern Ireland, the increase is from 8.5% in 2001 to 10.3% in 2005. The drop in turnout in NI suppresses the % increase.
99. There are still some unionists in Northern Irelkand who would describe themselves as Irish (or Irish and British), but their numbers have declined sharply since the 1960s.
100. I’m able to see your previous post (number 91).
96 - Lorcan - going onto the parliament website - you are indeed right - however it doesn’t alter my view that Lib Dems could/should have done better.
103. If Libdems would have got better, Labour would lost its majority. How many seats would have fallen to the tories with an icrease of a couple of points for the Libdmes?
Does someone know how was the Libdems performance in lab/tories marginals? Did they have a less than average increase their % of votes or not?
103. Vino, I agree with your point that the Lib Dems might have picked up a bigger share of Labour defectors, I just couldn’t accept your statistic.
I have a ton on the Tories to get less than 50% in South Staffs tonight, so I’m hoping that your prediction of large increases for ‘Others’ turns out right this time
Vino, if you can come up with a platform that will be equally attractive to Green/Respect and UKIP-type voters I’m sure the Lib Dems will be all ears!
104 - Andrea - in my constituency Nick lost 6.7%,Con gained 0.5%,Lib Dems gained 1.4% whilst “others” gained 4.7%.The point being why did anti-labour voters in Broxtowe not vote LD? why did they waste their votes?
Are you suggesting that a LibDem vote in Broxtowe isn’t a wasted vote?
106. yes, it would be pretty hard for the Libdems to be able to attract at the same time: a Plymouth Devonport’s eurosceptic who wants UK out of EU, a Brighton Pavillion gay man who wants gay marriage, a traditionalist muslin who wants to oust Oona King and a skinheads.
105 - Lorcan - I only post as I see it - when I’m wrong I will admit it - your bet will win easily(hope that isn’t the kiss of death),I honestly think all three major parties will lose tonight.
When is the result?
107. we should underastand why these voters switched. If these voters decided to switch, because they found Labour too pro-EU, they wouldn’t certainly vote the Libdems (they would have voted UKIP or veritas). If the switchers are leftwinged voters, they wouldn’t certainly vote for the tories and so on. People decided to switch for different reasons and they chose the party who better represented these reasons. The Libdems couldn’t appeal to all potential switchers.
107 - Vino, I live in Broxtowe too, and I suspect there are several reasons that the ‘others’ vote went up so much:
1) There were loads of them!
2) The more people vote for, say, UKIP, the less it counts as a wasted vote and the more people take notice.
3) The population of Broxtowe now isn’t the same as the population in 2001 - I think (based on nothing more than a gut feeling) that Broxtowe’s population is younger and more transient than most, and perhaps the population that voted Lab and Lib Dem 4 years ago is being replaced by a cohort which scatters its vote more widely.
BTW, I’ve just seen Broxtowe’s revised boundaries for the next election - will be difficult for Nick to hold next time - I’d say that the loss at the northern end of the constituency will more or less wipe out this time’s 2000 majority.
It seems that Broxtowe was, in slightly exaggerated form, a microcsosm of the whole country.
111 - with a low turnout I would hope that the result would be soon. My info is that the Conservatives have won but with a reduced majority in vote and % terms, with the Lib Dems overtaking Labour to second place. We will see soon if this is true!
113 - John C - which ward do you live in? I’ve been in Broxtowe 12 years(from Nottingham North) and in my street at least people appear not to move very frequently - I’m a big fan of “others” and could be easily talked into supporting PR if someone came up with a reasonable system.
111 - if you right I’m off to bed now as my prediction will be wrong!
I am amazed how little interest the media is showing compared to an average by-election campaign. Does anyone know when the result’s due?
Sky News predicting a majority of 5,200. Turnout about 37%. Cormack share of the vote about 48%.
116 - Vino - I live in Beeston North, and it seems to have a higher than usual number of 1) students, and 2) people who move into the area to work at the university, hospital or Boots (I suppose because it’s on the motorway side of town so it’s the side people come in on). As a rule of thumb, the Nottingham people I know who were born here live in the east or north, those who have moved in from elsewhere live in the west or south. (Admittedly this is a massive generalisation).
That said, I’ve been here eight years now so we’re not as transient as all that.
I too am a big fan of others, but mainly because they make the political landscape more interesting. But the only PR I’d support enthusiastically is STV, about which I can be really quite dull.
118- between 12:30 and 1:00
119 - turnout 37.7% - bbc
122-In line with expectations?
120 - Of course, I meant Beeston West - Beeston North is the county ward. Schoolboy error. Whereabouts dou you live Vino?
120 - John C - I live close to the Broxtowe Inn (Nuthall) and shop in Bulwell as against Kimberley or Beeston,I think your generalisation is about spot on.”others” do make it more exciting I agree.
123 - no - I thought about 47% - more in line with Hartlepool - I’m surprised and disappointed it’s that low.
Hello John C - the third known Broxtowe constituent on the site. If you’d like to be on my email update list and aren’t yet, drop me a line (nickmp1@aol.com).
The poll in the former BNP held ward of Goresbrook in Barking and Dagenham was 33%
Labour won the seat they lost last autumn, running the husband of the defeated candidate
Figures were:
Lab:
Sorry touched the key
Figures are:
Labour
128 129 - dont tease us!!
Try again
Lab 1,227
BNP 791
UKIP 216
Con 167
The count was interesting, Margaret Hodge was escorted by Stephen Twigg. There were many Labour officials including Parliamentary candidates from other areas.
The Labour campaign moved up a gear in the last week with some far better literature than previously.
For those who do not know B&D local politics, the UKIP candidate is the brother of the Labour agent (Liam Smith) and another Labour councillor (Cllr NAdine Smith).
The BNP “top brass” were very unhappy with their half Turkish candidate and made some pretty awful remarks to anyone who was interested in their ravings to listen.
131 - This is interesting Peter - has the BNP vote fallen away, or was their previous victory a result of apathy amongst everyone else?
- News24 say Staffordshire Vote result imminent.
Con: 13,343
Lab: 4,496
Lib Dem: 3,540
UKIP: 2,675
English Democrats: 643
Clause 28-Christian Democrats: 67
Green: 437
Freedom Party: 434
Result -
Braid (Clause 28) 67
CONSERVATIVE 13,343
Eng Democrat 643
Lib Dem 3540
Freedom 434
UKIP 2675
Labour 4496
Green 437
oops…just a little too slow there!
looks like he walked it
135- little be slow off the mark
Cons 13343 - 52%(+1.5%)
Lab - 4496 - 17.5% (-16.7%)
Lib Dem - 3540 - 13.8% (+2.2)
UKIP - 2675 - 10.4% (+6.7)
A mixed bag, Mike
Impressive result- 8.5% swing. Still above 50% and Labour nowhere.
Excellent night for the Tories. Poor night for the Lib Dems (they made more than 2.8% progress nationally), appalling night for Labour (losing 16.7% of the vote takes some doing!). A creditable performance by UKIP - I think breaking the 10% barrier was the benchmark for them for success.
He actually increased his majority in votes as well as %
Oh well I sack my sources as we see an increased Cons majority in vote and % terms AND Lib Dems third and close to being fourth!
Roll on Cheadle!
Very good result for the tories, disastrous for Labour, so and so for the Libdems and very decent for UKIP.
144- Could not agree with you more Rik!
Well,everyone of my predictions were wrong - no protest vote against the big three at all - tories can be pleased whilst Labour and Lib Dems can say it’s not our natural territory!
Oh well, there goes part of my GE winnings. Clearly a vote for the candidate rather than the perty which was never mentioned in his election literature. Good result for Lsbour in Dagenham.
One could also say Rik that the Lib Dems were equally close to second!
Oh and I’ll think you’ll find on these swings Cheadle will see an increased Lib Dem majority!
Aaaah - good old ‘one-eyed’ Rik - don’tcha just lurve him!
147 - around 16.7% of voters did not vote for the ‘big three’. How can you claim there was ‘no protest vote at all against the big three’?
Dan- An extrapolation of the Cheadle result based on tonight makes no sense. It is, however, a boost for Tory morale which has been low (obviously) for the last few weeks.
Anyway, I’m off to bed.
151 - svenson — you are absolutely right! there was - not of the magnitude I was hoping for but a clear protest.I will go to bed now a little happier. - thanks
150 - true - although the Labour vote in Cheadle can’t fall much further (I don’t think Cheadle ever had the number of Labour votes that Staffs S lost) so I don’t think the swings can be easily compared - the Lib Dems have squeezed just about all the votes they can out of the left.
Only 1 out of 3 for Mike S’s predictions, but unlike most of us he sticks his neck out in black and white. Good result for Cormack, and I’d think what happened is that the personal vote turned out disproportionately. This is almost the only case of an incumbent fighting what was in effect a by-election with no particular issues, and I think we’re seeing the consequence. Labour’s poor result I think reflects the same mood as at the GE - most people think Labour is the only party ready to govern, but, equally, most aren’t enthused, so many Labour voters just didn’t bother, or even voted Cormack because he’s a decent bloke.
UKIP’s performance was barely OK. The English Democrats and Freedom Party seem to have snaffled some of their potential. If all those votes had gone UKIP they’d have come third ahead of the LibDems.
Hard to draw general conclusions on that turnout, except the negative one that the Tory leadership strife hasn’t done them any harm. Glad to see Labour’s London success against the BNP, but that was a special case too.
Wasn’t the Independent’s political editor embarassing, by the way? Didn’t know anything about the Lab or Lib candidates, and indulged his personal preferences for Cormack and Davis at length. You’d think that if you’re going on a by-election programme you’d have a glance at the candidate info before you went on air.
Er, correction, the Independent’s sketch-writer and political columnist, not political editor. Time for bed!
Thanks to Skybet who would not let me put anymore more on this weeks I’ve come out with just a small loss overall. My inital reading on this on May 25th was very accurate and those who got on a Labour vote share of below 30% at evens did very well.
Such is betting.
Well done. Mr cormack! I think mosst of us spotted a decline in the Labour vote n the way, but thought the Tory vote would suffer too. UKIP will be very disappointed with this result. According to their discussion forums, they were expecting many more votes than this. With Wimbledon and cricket on the box, I´m glad I wasn´t there to knock up on the day!
Re Goresbrook, which is in the Barking constituency. The BNP vote fell by about 400 from last autumn, Labour’s vote doubled.
The previous BNP councillor was a disaster (he was completely out of his depth and said so. The BNP candidate was half Turkish and the party altered it’s rules and allows him as a “one off member”. He is nerdy in appearence and many BNP people loath him. He was described at the count by one of them as a w**. He had also fought Village ward (in Dagenham) last autumn and Dagenham in the general. In 2002 he was a candidate in Bexley and orihnates from Hackney.
Somehow talking about “outsiders” did not ring true.
I was interested to see Stephen Twigg, after all Lady Hodge (for she is of course Lady Hodge)will probably (hopefully) not stand again. The revised seat will be a Labour stronghold and John Cruddas must be favourite for the new Dagenham and Wennington seat.
Asked by th elocal press why he was theer Lady H said “he is my partner” and they hugged and posed for a pic. They then headed back to Uslington before teh declaration!
Sorry for not proofing the above. One final point, it is a delight that east London is rid of that bunch of filth that bismirches our name. London local government is an improved place.
Just got up and seen South Staffs results. All parties can now come down from the lamp posts withpout needing to hang themselves! Cons , a good solid win, bigger in % terms than I expected, Labour came 2nd despite a big slump, Lib Dems % up but vote down and closed for 2nd, UKIP well above General Election figures but only a very respectable fourth, they were looking at second 3 weeks ago.
Seat so different from Cheadle, history, nature , geography, infrastructure and Patrick Cormack not standing there.
On paper with Day as the Cons, a name well known locally they should at least reduce the majority, but the Labour slump suggests even the 8% at the General may fall a bit more. Odds of 1/10 on for the Lib Dems overstates I feel, sure it will lengthen to 4/6 by polling day with Tories at 6/4. I feel sorry for the residents of Cheadle they are going to be inundated with Cons and Lib Dem leaflets, one senses over the past year or so quite a lot of hostility to this amongst those who do not vote and many others who do. Quantity over quality, not always appropriate. Know activists feels this has to be done but what do others feel, leaflets arriving every day. It is a bit like lamp posts round here, nobody will be the first to stop doing it.
Patrick Cormacks literature was good but even that arriving every day or so will raise some angst.
159. The “New Statesman” has a rumour a couple of weeks ago about Hodge retiring in favour of Twigg:
“Blairites are huddling together as the Brownite barbarians gather outside the Downing Street gates. Margaret “Enver” Hodge is cast as fairy godmother to tearful Stephen Twigg. Enver has two things Twiggy - vanquished in Enfield Southgate - desires more than anything in the world. Alas the first, a ministerial post, is beyond a wave of her wand, as is the second, a safe Commons seat. But wait, what’s this? Wicked rumours of Hodge, 60, securing reselection in Barking only to retire on the eve of the next election in favour of Twiggy? I can hear the denials, though Lady Enver already has a familiar ring to it.”
WRT Goresbrook, I expect that the BNP’s vote was also affected by UKIP running a candidate who once boasted to me “I’m more right wing on immigration than the BNP.”
163 - wow, how do you do that? Propose repatriating everyone?
Sorry, my machine has a life of its own and I was very tired after Barking last evening.
Epping Forest - Lower Sheering
Con - 208
Lab - 64
LD - 22
Dover - Walmer
Con - 1031
Lab - 449
LD - 211
North Tyneside - Weetslade
Con - 1177
Lab - 998
LD - 347
Con gain from Lab.
No doubt Lord Rennard has ani interesting view on all of the above.
Perhaps our next fundraiser in Lower Sheering will be an 11-a-side cricket match between our voters.
164 - “Romans? Italy. Saxons? Germany. Jutes? Denmark. Vikings? Norway. Celts? France. … ”
Andrea [162] - blimey, Stephen Twigg isn’t going to do a Tom Robinson as well is he - I fear physical intimacy with Baroness Hodge might have the opposite effect on me…
&n