Is now the time to bet against Brown?
June 23rd, 2005
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Is his “automatic succession” still a near certainty?
Yesterday’s little Commons concession over the operation of Gordon Brown’s tax credit system is a timely reminder of what a dangerous a position the Chancellor of the Exchequer holds.
For although he has had a fairly charmed life until now you cannot assume that things will continue to go well for the politician who gave up his chances of becoming Labour leader at that famous dinner at the Granita restaurant all those years ago. Is Gordon Brown the certainty that the 0.27/1 betting price tag suggests or is there now a case to look for opportunities to bet against him?
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Or put it another way does the price of 100/28 represent good value on Brown NOT being the next Labour leader?
We have said many times here that we do not like these very long-term markets where you could be locking up your money for months or even years. An exception could be made here because the main Labour leadership market is on the Betfair betting exchange where you can back and lay and where, if you have predicted trends correctly and prices move in the direction that you forecast, then you can get your stake out. Sadly there is very little liqudity on this market at the moment.
So much of Brown’s future is tied up with the timing of Tony Blair’s departure. When it looked as though he would be out within months, or certainly next year, the price on the Gordon Brown was even tighter - at 1/5. Now we know there will not be a UK referendum on the EU Constitution and the Prime Minister has discovered a new crusade on the reform of EU finances an early change looks much less likely.
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And the longer that Gordon Brown has to wait the greater the chances of something going wrong.
Will Gordon Brown, when the time to choose does come, still be seen by fellow MPs, Labour’s membership and the trade unions as the overwhelming obvious choice to take the party to a fourth successive General Election victory? There’s enough uncertainty about to make that 100/28 price tag look tempting. The only problem is that there are so few Brown backers about on Betfair that the most you can get on is about £5.
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Mike Smithson
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Two areas where Brown faces problems: Firstly inside the Labour Party. A very senior Labour Peer attended a diplomatic reception where I was present, and I was staggered at the venom that he directed towards Brown. “Psychologically unstable” was probably the kindest thing he said- “control freakery way beyond Tony” was another. So clearly Brown does have many enemies- and they seem very determined to find a different leader.
The other problem is the global cycle and Brown’s policy response. The detail obsessive in GB is at the root of the Tax credit fiasco- and the trend elsewhere is for tax simplification- vide flat taxes- Brown flys in the face of this trend and begins to look like a stand out. The other UK question is the House prices- this asset bubble is likely to fall further- and the tightening of the belt evident in recent retail sales numbers suggests a fairly significant economic slow down. While the Bank of England is likely to cut rates in the Autumn, this will not reduce excessive debt (and may in fact increase it in the short term), the credit system therefore continues to face some strain and lenders may seek to impose new ceilings on borrowing at the margin- not combining incomes for example, or limiting borrowing to 100% of house value- that may have the same effect as a monetary tightening on the overextended retail credit market. The Tresury may also get more effective resistence to their controls from the spending ministries in the wake of the tax credits fiasco. All in all, I think that GB is likely to be standing into danger if Blair is not out before the Autumn of 2006.
Good post, James O.
All I was going to say was “How all occasions do conspire against (him)” with reference to the Brussels summit.
New Labour does not look anything like joined-up government these days. “Our European partners” get different messages depending on whether they speak to Blair or are spoken to by Brown. Not great news for the UK.
OTOH who else have Labour got?
I’d love to bet against GB. But for £5?
It seems to me that political betting doesn’t lend itself to fixed odds, unless there is significant interest from ‘the great unwashed’. The bookies need some sort of balance for their books, which they won’t have if there is mostly ‘cute’ betting. This is a situation that is going to get worse, not better. Spreadfair/betfair are often very low volume on political bets, particularly on markets where there are no fixed odds options.
What’s going on? My view is that the actual amount of interest in political betting is small—hence the low volumes available on spreadfair/betfair. (Somewhat surprising given the number of daily ‘hits’ to pb.com?) But it may be that trading on those person-to-person betting websites isn’t the way most people want to bet. (Again, that is a surprise, given that all long term tips on here carry the caveat ‘you’re tying up your money for a long while’. With p-to-p betting you can move in and out, paying a smaller margin each time than with bookies.)
It would be impossible for an ‘amateur’ site like this one to try to copy either spreadfair or betfair—the back office software development is just too huge. But p-to-p binary betting?
The Spreadfair infrastructure would support p-to-p binaries with no change (in fact I think some of their sports markets are effectively structured as binaries). Are any of our big players in regular touch with them?
Did anyone see Ed Milliband on Newsnight? If that is the future of the Labour party, god help them.
OT - Cheadle by-election writ was moved this morning.
1.”Two areas where Brown faces problems: Firstly inside the Labour Party. A very senior Labour Peer attended a diplomatic reception where I was present, and I was staggered at the venom that he directed towards Brown. “Psychologically unstable” was probably the kindest thing he said- “control freakery way beyond Tony” was another. So clearly Brown does have many enemies- and they seem very determined to find a different leader.”
you could find people in the Labour Party making the same comments about Blair and that didn’t stop him to become leader and to stay leader.
If blairites and the right of the party will present a good candidate, Brown could be in danger in a leadership contest, especially if he won’t get the votes from the left (I don’t see the campaign group voting for him, they’ll present their own candidate).
5. Saw him on Newsnight and the Daily Politics and he really needs to tone down that aggresion. Thought the Tory treasury spokesman was hopeless as well. Regarding tax credits, why don’t the inland revenue just give bigger tax allowences for working parents?. (I know the answer, just wondering what other peoples answers would be)
[7] Fair comment Andrea, although I would say that staying leader is probably easier than becoming leader. If the Labour Party is divided as you say: Brownites, Anti-Brown Blairites and Campaign, then it is even more difficult for GB. However, I do not think that this is so, at least not yet. GB is the clear favourite today, My point was that this might not be true in 12-18 months time. Nevertheless, I was very surprised at the loathing of GB that clearly already exisits, so a) I think the election will certainly be contested, whenever it comes and b) I think a good proportion of Parliamentarians in the electoral college at least may not support GB.
Alternative candidates? Charles Clarke is often mentioned, as is Peter Hain. Hilary Benn? GB is not best loved in the Scottish Labour Party- but John Reid is probably hampered by being Scottish. Some of the more credible youngsters have not even got a foot on the ministerial ladder, and it is hard to see an effective challenger coming from outside the current cabinet. I think Blunkett is too shop-soiled, but others may disagree.
I am not sure it will be contested. Even if, as appears likely, a fairly large group hates Gordon it doesn’t mean anyone will put their heads above the parapet to face what they might see as inevitable defeat. Michael Howard did not take the Tory leadership uncontested on the basis that nobody hated him - he took it because it was in nobody’s interest to challenge him.
9. “If the Labour Party is divided as you say: Brownites, Anti-Brown Blairites and Campaign, ”
I don’t know if the party is divided in this way. But I think that campaign group MPs will vote for their own candidate. IIRW Jeremy Corbyn once said that the very few good things made by the Labour government in economy were made despite Brown and no thanks to Brown.
Kelvin Hopkins (MP for Luton North) is already talking in the Campaign Group official site about a possible end of the Blair/Brown era; they consider Brown in the same league of Blair.
Brown could get some votes from leftwinged MPs (Dobson, Short and Glenda Jackson), but I’m not sure he could get votes from the Campaign group.
Although much is made of the lack of leadership candidates for the tories, who exactly have labour got apart from Brown? I can’t see crediable contenders in the top jobs at the moment as they all have flaws. Hilary Benn would be my outside betting pick.
” although I would say that staying leader is probably easier than becoming leader. ”
Don’t tell this to Duncan Smith.
‘The spreadfair infrastructure would support binaries’ [ bv, 4] . True. The point is that binaries are simpler than the other markets, and so the support software is simpler too. Were the volume to warrant it, it may be possible to have a pb.com political binaries market. I was merely raising the possibility, because political betters are so poorly served by the existing offerings.
This could well be because so few of the posters on this site are actually interested in political betting. I was ‘running the idea up the flag-pole, to see who saluted’. Just you so far…
14 - ah I see. Also the credit aspects are easier since you can make punters deposit their whole “stake”. Let’s have a chat on Saturday evening.
Andrea @11. Obviously not my party, but I wouldn’t reckon the Campaign Group to be much of a force. They have even less influence in the trade unions, and probably not much in the constituency parties. GB will surely sweep the former and dominate the latter. Short of a catastrophic decline in the economy, I’d be surprised if he didn’t win the leadership with a minimum 70% vote in the electoral college. But I’ll always defer to Richard and ‘The One and Only’ Ben on such matters….
16. The Campaign Group has 25 MPs. He was able to recruit 4 newly elected MPs this time.
If there will be a strong anti-Brown candidate with Brown and the anti-Brown candidate neck to neck, their votes could be important.
Without a strong contender for Brown, they are irrilevant.
17.”He was able to recruit 4 newly elected MPs this time.”
ops, “It”, not “he”. The campaign group is still not a human being.
As a Labour member albeit not that active, my view is that no one in the PLP will challenge GB. No one would want to put their head above the parapit- they would only get shot down
May be the campaign group would put someone up, but they know they would attract a low vote. No serious contender will put up. They will wiat until GB steps down.
Just noticed that Sir Peter Soulsby is one of the Campaign Groups’ recruits… wonder how the One and Only Ben feels about such a reward for all his efforts…
Sir Peter Soulsby! What next - Alan Simpson, Companion of Honour?
What do you need to be nominated? I accept that if you just need a dozen MPs, some saddo might challenge Gordon for a laugh. I have forgotten how it worked in past contests - Smith had an only semi-credible candidate up against him (Gould?) who was humiliated and moved to New Zealand didn’t he? How did he get on the ballot paper?
I think in those days it was only about 20 MPs, but I’ve lost track of what the rule is now.
20. Re: Campaign Group new recruits.
Look at the David Anderson’s maiden speech (he was the president of Unison, so maybe they’ve still some votes in trade unions). He referred to other labour MPs as “comrades” and then he talked about Marx and Lenin. Not very new Labour.
Be honest you Lib Dems why are you all savaging CK. See my post at 248 on the Davis thread at 248. I confess i’m amazed. You all seem to have clung to that brief glimmer at the nadir of IDS’s reign that you would overtake the Tories, but once their instinct for self preservation kicked in at the last possible second and they assassinated him, you can’t have realistically thought you would eclipse your 1983 vote share? Michael Howard for all his faults was incomparably superior to Iain Duuncan Smith, mind you so would have Krusty the Clown but you get my pointa.
every party has its left and right lavour is no different
Andrea very interesting piece in today’s times on Bologna and Italy. Link anyone? Ps I see Berlusconi has been boasting how he used his “playboy” charms on the Finnish President. The Italian Ambassador has been summoned to explain, most amusing.
5: re. Ed Milliband. Yes, and they say the Tories are weird. Dear oh dear.
25 - Not sure who you are referring to as all you Lib Dems savaging CK . Yes Mike has been critical and Vino but he is not a Lib Dem anyway . FWIW my opinion was that the performance was a bit more than adequate but given some slight change in strategy a little better . As I have posted before , for reasons of my own , I did not vote at all but it was not CK or policy that stopped me .
I agree with all the comments re. Ed Miliband. His performance on Newsnight was testy, but his performance on the Daily Politics was shocking. I particularly liked Andrew Neil’s snarl of ‘The viewers will decide who’s blustering, Mr Miliband’.
Yes, from the response to Brown at last year’s Conference, I’d say he’d win the CLPs easily.
I’d say it’s worth watching Straw’s attitude towards Brown. Straw usually knows which way the wind is blowing. At the moment, he makes a point of chattering animatedly to Brown during Blair’s replies in PMQs. If, on the other hand, he starts putting distance between himself and Brown, then Brown’s star will have waned.
I also think that, should Brown’s star fall, Straw might fancy himself for the leadership (that’s what the contact lenses, slicker hairstyle, and double-breasted suits have all been in aid of).
Thirty If Jack Straw is the answer then what is the question? I reckon Clarke, Blunkett, even Hilary Benn would be better bets for Labour after Brown. I doubt the Tories would be able to creidt their luck if Straw emerged as one of the unlikeliest Prime Ministers in History.
29 Is Vino not a Lib Dem? From my hearing i have heard plenty of bitching by Southern Lib Dems especially re the local tasx plan which they seem to regard as an unmitigated disaster.
I agree with Richard, if the opposition to Brown contains Straw (or is headed by him) then it is serious, if not then it is a coronation.
It is more interesting to speculate on deputy leader (which is also elected). Alan Johnson some say, but others think Brown needs a women to blunt his masculine edges.
31 - And I agree with p, I just don’t get Jack Straw.
31. I cansider Straw a lot better than Blunkett. Blunkett is too divisive.
32. A woman? Maybe Hewitt or Kelly, but I think they aspire to hold better government positions.
32 Private Eye is tipping Cookie. DL is there to warm the hearts of the grassroots and make em believe they are still Socialists together. Since Prescott ain’t gonna be there for ever, Cook makes sense as a loyalist who can plausibly pose as Leftwinger, plus his opposition to the War is a bonus in tempting back those Voters who drifted away because of that.
31 - I believe after a difficult and close decision, Vino reluctantly decided not to vote Lib Dem.
34. Hewitt would be the Tories dream. She is so patronising and nanny like. Highly unlikely. Kellys religious goings on might make her unsuitable in the eyes of some.
31 - You should ask him but No . Yes there will always be criticism of some aspects of policy , the only solution is to have no policies at all something the Conservatives used to accuse the Liberals of some years ago . The local Income Tax policy may have cost a few votes but FWIW in my opinion the votes it cost would probably have stayed Conservative anyway .
THIRTY Eight. Sue Doughty would certainly disagree with you in Guildford. Effect seems geographical benefited U OOP North, and Celtic Fringe but you paid a price Down South.
See my Davis THread post at 248, re what the Liberator had to saya.
[31][36] Yes, I imagine Robin Cook can have Two Jags’s job in due course if he wants it. If not, a Brown coronation would be enlivened by a beauty contest amongst the Young Turks and Turkesses…
39 - Guildford may have had more to do with the Lib Dem campaign management on the ground than policy issues. I’m not convinced it was an inevitable loss.
41 - I agree that Guidford was not an inevitable loss . The seat was always going to be very tight and could have gone either way as the narrowness of the final result showed . I n this sort of marginal situation any one of a number of factors could effect the result .
41 Perhaps it was a combination but Doughty did single out the Income Tax PLan particularly.
Add in Orpington Lib Dem High Hopes Gain=Tory Mahority 5k. Vis Letwin, May&Rendell. Contrast Solihull, W&L , Manchester Withington, Cardiff Central and Scots Seatsa, as Sherlock Holm,es said once you eliminate the impossible whatever is left however improbable must be the truth. I think you’re missing a Pattern herea.
43 - well, obviously there is a regional pattern. However taking one seat and ascribing the result to one single policy reason is a great narrative which I don’t think is fully supported by the facts. And no candidate is ever going to blame the local campaign for their defeat. “Well, Jeremy, particular blame must be cast on my supposedly loyal agent…”
44. Ok to ignore Doughty but what about the Regional Pattern? Must say something. Did you see the lIberator Editorial the other week? I saw a little in the Indie, and felt they were spot on although i didn’t think unlike them it was necessarily a bad thing for the Lib Dems.
The Guildford campaign was very poor, and I know some Lib Dems who, with tiny majorities, beat tories and feel that Doughty simply has sour grapes, and should stop whining. The ‘infighting’ in the party seems to have settled now anyway. The whole South-central region seemed to be badly run.
What has happened to Guido lately?
Out of interest , in the County Council elections in Guildford , the Lib Dems outpolled the Conservatives by about 1,000 votes and you would have thought that Local Income Tax would have had more effect on that vote .
Regional patterns can always be found but the reasons are often not clear and may sometimes even be just a correction of a regional pattern at the last election . For example the swing from Labour to the Conservatives in London may have been greater this time purely because in 2001 there was a bigger than average swing the other way .
I’ve just read a book by Giles Radice called “Friends and Rivals” featuring Crossland, Healey and Jenkins. Contempories at Oxford (as was Edward Heath) Served in the army competed for seats and all tipped as possible leaders.
The book starts with the story of Ted Heath speaking at the Oxford Union against Chamberlain’s appeasment policy. There was a by election in Oxford that year and he and others prevailed upon a college Don to stand against the pro appeasment Tory, Quintin Hogg. He was aided by Crossland, Healey and Jenkins who persuaded the Liberal and Labour candidate to stand down so all could support the anti appeasment candidate………
It pointed up how few politicians of real originality there are around at the moment. Partly because there aren’t the huge idealogical issues of war, fascism and communism and partly because politics has been devalued (in my opinion by the rubbish press).
I agree with whoever said that without Brown Labour don’t have any obvious leaders. They aren’t much better served than their opponents. But it also reminds us that despite Iraq T.B has been a giant of a politician for these times and his leaving will create a much bigger vacuum than many think.
While we’re on about that sort of thing, does anyone know the reasons behind the general election result in Ceredigion - the Lib Dems seemed to go up massively at the expense of Plaid Cymru - was this a local language issue?
34 - I don’t think the Labour deputy Labour has to run the ODPM - I think the ODPM was created as a home for John Prescott - they couldn’t find a suitable senior ministry but didn’t want to put the deputy leader of the party in something obscure. I don’t think there’s any reason why a Labour deputy leader couldn’t be (say) home secretary.
50 - Confess to not having any local knowledge about Ceredigion but the Liberal vote increased at the exspense of all the 3 other parties . The Conservative vote fell most by 7% quite atypical for Wales .
From order-order website: “Bercow might manage Alan Duncan’s campaign”. Now to me, that would be the bonzai dream team.
The Party That Stands Up For The Little Guy!
51 - Thanks for that - I remember it struck me as an anomalous result, but I must have misremembered the details.
51 - I think Ceredigion had a very outlandish result in 1992 (albeit different boundaries), when the sitting Lib Dem stepped down (or did he just lose it) and PC came from fourth to win it with a very popular candidate (Cynog Dafis) the Lib Dems dropping to third or even fourth. They then gradually built up again, Dafis resigned to concentrate on the Welsh Assembly and there was a by-election in 2000. The new PC MP was not as popular and the seat just sort of reverted to type. Presumably candidates’ characters have had a lot to do with it over the years.
Also I think the PC guy blamed it a bit on the student vote (he had a slightly bitter blog). There are two universities in the seat (rather bizarrely for a rural area) - Lampater and Aberystwyth. PC opposed Iraq and student fees strongly but it may not have been widely known and anyway a lot of the students were presumably English.
53.”The Party That Stands Up For The Little Guy!”
“The party that stands up for the little gay” is better. So the slogan could include Duncan’s main message: “I’m gay”.
Nicol Stephen is the new Scotland Libdems leader
48 THe economist had a more intersesting theory to do with the level of Public Spending. In places where very high ege Cleveland 60% GDP just shy of Hungary after Communism in the early 90’s! Lab Majority 8,00 etc conversesly the lower the share of public spending eg the further and further South you travelled the better and better it got for the Tories. Don’yt know myself but it’s an interesting point.
Re Local Elections. Far Lower tirnout would have been distorting plus even LIb Dems remarked Tories had borrowed a few tricks from their handbooks at the General Election and theirEA GOTV was Vastly Improveda.
59 - The local election turnout was exactly the same as the GE as it was the same people voting at the same time with 2 votes 1 GE and 1 County Council . Quite a number of people voted 1 way in the GE and another in the County Council . I have detailed results for all the Councils . Wales and Scotland had only the vote .
Breaking news:
Tony Banks has just become Lord Stratford of Stratford.
Any suggestion for Jenny Tonge’s new name are welcomed.
Mike, a suggestion which I expect you won’t like but which I think I’ll put anyway in case. There are a number of posters with real insight on all this, e.g. you and Nick Palmer as an MP. How would you feel about choosing the top 10 and simply putting their comments in bold? Obviously you’d need to use the URL not the name. I could squeeze a lot more insight out much faster that way!
As for Gordon Brown, I’ve commented before that Brown is not that certain, and put my money where my mouth was. Sadly I banked a few pennies by betting on him as you suggest, so as to take the money out to bet on Cheadle just before you posted this! Never mind. I made a few pennies first.
Hopefully UKIP will do well in Staffs as it’ll improve my odds in Cheadle.
Baroness Gardner of Parkes must be the best name in the Upper House.
Andrea at 13, just because Duncan Smith managed to lose the Tory leadership without even being allowed to fight an election, it doesn’t mean it’s harder to stay leader than become leader. I don’t know whether Blair was the bookies’ favourite. But he certainly wasn’t the journos’ favourite, so Brown and someone else (was it Robin Cook?) didn’t make it when they had a good chance before.
64,. I agreed with James assertion that staying leader is easier than becoming leader, I pointed out the Duncan Smith’s situation to show that with the tories even the normal assertions are not a sure thing. So if a candidate in a leadership contest is the better option for the tories, they could very well choose another one.
27 - P, here’s the story from a Finnish newspaper: http://www.helsinginsanomat.fi/english/article/1101980006828
Gavin [62] - heaven forbid that our genial host should do any such thing… just enjoy the improved quality of the postings the later the evening wears on
68 - and the B and C’s and whiskies help both reading and writing - off to pub now Swan Worthing versus Brewery Tap Brighton
Re. Ceredigion, yes, Plaid Cymru took it from fourth place in 92, on a swing from the LDs of 13%. The sitting MP, Geraint Howells, lost (in fact, he earns a mention in the Ashdown Diaries for his anguish at losing, prompting Ashdown to reflect ‘God, why do we do it?’)
No bold print, thanks - this site is the classless society for which we strive :-).
Interesting, isn’t it, that the sense that all the parties are not doing very well persists? Labour hasn’t got much of the usual post-election poll bounce, the Tories are thinking they’d better take Davis but they’re visibly not keen, and the LibDems are vaguely wondering about some policy shifts to win some more seats next time. There’s a generally becalmed atmosphere. I think we’ll find the much-anticipated revolts don’t get far either - on religious hatred the revolt was 2, I believe, on violent crime/guns etc. it was 0, and on ID cards it’ll be non-trivial but not much over 20. Too hot to plot?
Candidates for Labour leader require nominations from 12.5% of MPs - I make that 45. Unlikely that the Campaign Group would be able to field their own candidate, but they should ensure that there is at least one candidate who is somewhat to the left of Brown.
It’s also more likely than not that when Blair goes Prescott will stand down at the same time. Candidates for deputy may well stand for leader as well as deputy in order to raise their profile in the more winnable contest.
I think Hilary Benn is a very strong candidate for deputy, and that John Denham may be positioning himself as the ‘not quite so right-wing as all the others’ candidate.
70 Precisely, remember, remember the fifth of november!
Interesting question for you Mr Palmer, no one doubts we’l;l be see Mr Twigg, the former MPs for shipley, Welwyn Hatfield among others being found safe berths come the next election, although they will have to queue behind Ed Balls if his seat is abolished, as it is quite conceivable Labour could win but not in Broxtowe but still overall, if that happened would you look to bounce back or would you be inclined to walk away?
So why did the LibDems lose Guildford but do so well in, say, North Norfolk, Cheadle et al? Dougherty perhaps? The LibDems normally use incumbancy so well!
Re:70 - is it so surprising that the parties are “tired” after what was effectively six months campaigning given that everyone knew the election date ? I suppose this is one of the disadvantages of the concept of a fixed-term for Parliament ? Nothing happens in the last six months as everyone is in campaign mode.
I’m not surprised given what happened on May 5th to see the parties in more reflective mood either. Perhaps it’s the nature of elections which are, I suppose, meant to produce change and new dynamics but when an election fails to deliver that change, everyone must feel subdued facing up to what is effectively the status quo ante.
I think there is an interesting contrast between the Tory mood now and the Labour mood after 1987 and 1992. As I recall, despite what was a much better result, the mood in the Labour Party was much worse after 92 than 87. It is clearly harder for a Party to accept the inevitability of defeat if it has never even seen the possibility of victory. For both Labour in 1992 and the Tories this time, I think there were moments when victory seemed possible. For Labour in 1987 and the Tories in 2001, I don’t think there was ever a prospect of victory.
36 - book value - very good
Yes, there is something to be said for the 87-01 and 92-05 comparison, as even though the Tories got less seats in 05 than Labour did in 92, the feeling was that they “felt” they got just as close. If the Green had rubbed the way of the opposition (i.e. seats falling to the Tories like Crawley and Harwich, and to the LibDems like, erm, some of them) then we could so easily have been in Hung territory. Come on then statos! What are the 33 most marginal Labour seats?
70. >Nick, don’t tempt them to revolt.
They’re unusually calm. I’m a bit suspicious. I think everyone is now looking around to see what the others are up to. They’re all still “studying” the next move (between parties and inside parties).
71. If it’ll be a tight contest, I’m sure someone will offer them enough signatures to fill a candidate if they want.
70 - Nick - I think you’re right - the electorate are becoming fed up with all 3 main parties - “others” imho will do very good in South Staffs.
70.”I think we’ll find the much-anticipated revolts don’t get far either - on religious hatred the revolt was 2, I believe, on violent crime/guns etc. it was 0, and on ID cards it’ll be non-trivial but not much over 20. ”
btw, maybe the rebels’s aim is not to defeat the government, but to obtain some changes (maybe only minor) to these bills. If I’ve understand well, Clarke was open to suggestion to improve thee bills.
and I read that rebellions at second reading are unlikely.
David at 70: well, I’ve not thought about winning or losing next time yet, but I considered the possibility of losing this time. I’d have wanted to find a job in the area and carry on helping the party in other ways (e.g. stand for the council); if they’d wanted me to stand again for Parliament of course I would have (almost certainly still in Broxtowe). I think the Labour Party is, most of the time, a noble cause, and I hope you’ll still find me delivering leaflets when I’m 96 (was that the gate creaking or me?).
Agree with Andrea’s post on revolts (there’s always scope for improvement if people want a compromise) and Stodge’s on the general mood.
BTW, we intermittently comment on the German scene. The polls (see wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm) show the left-wing PDS/WASG alliance settling at 8-9% in the polls, making them possibly the third largest party (some polls include the WASG, some don’t, as the alliance is still being finalised). The centre-right alliance (CDU/FDP) are still comfortably ahead, but it’s tightening slowly - the closest to date was 52% for them, 44% for the left/green parties. Too early for Merkel to order the champagne. What makes German politics especially hard to predict is the 5% margin to get a share of the PR distribution (or you can win three constituencies) - if the FDP dropped below 5% on the night, all bets are off.
No one got any rumours or predictions from/for South Staffs? Then I´ll tell you what happened in Ceredigion in 1992. Geraint Howells, lovely man, and Liberal of the old school, was not happy with the terms of the merger (and quite rightly too). Because of this, while remaining a member, he stood for election under the old name (Liberal, I suppose). And this created that extra doubt in the collective mind of the electorate that gave the seat to PC (of course it helped that they through loads of resources at the seat. But the Lib Dems have been coming back ever since, helped by the by-election to the Welsh Assembley (taking them back to second place IIRC). And it was no surprise to this gambler when the Lib Dems took it this time around. At least this is what some of my welsh friends tell me…
In Guildford, obviously, many factors are present. (And isn´t this the sort of place a Conservative Party ought to be able to win, after all?) A lot of newspapers around 2001 reported that the Conservative campaign (XX days to save the pound) really bombed with the enormous number of people working in financial services who live in Guildford. This was less of an issue in 2001, and the Tories regained some of their old support. (Spending a massive amount of money on the “national campaign” and in the run up to the election presumably helped too). Still, look out for the Lib Dem challenge next time around. They will be looking to do a Taunton.
PS: what’s happening in South Staffs?
PPS: anyone got an explanation for Taunton?
Did anyone just hear Mark Mardell’s opening report on TbB in the EU? He “wrecked” the budget, lectured them as if and here Mardell sneered they were the PLP. For the first and probably only time in my life i felt sorrry for TB. I was shocked normally he gets good coverage from the Beeb, but i guess we shouldn’t be surprised since it is only a few months that an independent panell set up by the Governors found Pro EU Bias, am i right?
Ps Is South Staffs out soon? I’m off to bed shortly. Night all!
80. Re: Germany.
If FDP will dip below 5% and PDS/WASG making the 5% (they have a strong chance to do it), it’ll be a huge blow for CDU. It’ll mean to lose 2 almost won elections in a row. They’ll go crazy.
81. At what time is the result for South Staffs expected?
82. Blair and the EU Parliament today.
The speech by the Green MEP Cohn Bendit was great (”welcome to the club Mr Blair). The French communist who followed him was boring (but I listened only the first part of his speech). I wasn’t able to listen all the speeches, because I have to go to meet some friend for lunch. Did any other MEP make some interesting speech?
82 - I thought the independent assessment of the BBC’s EU coverage found it unbalanced because they only ever run “bad news” stories on the EU. And in my view they are right. Rod Liddle was one of those to blame.
85 WHAT? are you sure? I thought they said they were to Pro EU not enough questioning etc. Anyways Good Night. Look forward to seeiang your reply in the morning?
86 - David - try http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4536705.stm
52,”From order-order website: “Bercow might manage Alan Duncan’s campaign”. Now to me, that would be the bonzai dream team. ”
Duncan is serious about this leadership contest. He gave an interview to the Spectator: he talked about frilly knickers again (he asked Petronella Wyatt if she wears them) and about his nude calendar (Rutland constituents loved it)
http://www.guardian.co.uk/guardianpolitics/story/0,3605,1513493,00.html
(btw, I didn’t know some members wanted to deselect him).
The Labour party keep their leaders a long, long time - so staying leader is easier than becoming leader. The Welsh windbag is a good example. The Tories OTOH are always knifing their leaders in the back.
89 - Chris a bit of a sweeping generalisation! Margaret Thatcher lasted 15 years as leader, Major lasted 7 years. Hague resigned because he lost the election. Only IDS could be said to have been “knifed” recently and thats because he wasnt up to the job!
90 - There’s still a contrast between the way the Tories treated Hague and the way Labour treated Kinnock. I would also point to Anthony Eden and Alec Douglas-Home. Howard is actually a good example - he obviously fears that if he doesn’t jump, he will be pushed.
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