Will the party talk be about parties?
June 25th, 2005
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The faces behind the names - all revealed tonight!
With Politicalbetting users gathering in London this evening for their post-General Election party there can be little doubt that the focus of discussion will be the South Staffordshire result.
Although nobody doubted that the Tories were going to win very few election-watchers stuck their necks out to forecast that Patrick Cormack would have been returned with an increased majority. Before Thursday the view of many, including me, was that this was a remarkably tough test for the Tories particularly because of the strength of UKIP there in the Euro elections last year and the fact that the EU has moved up the political agenda.
Yet the UKIP share did get into double figures while at the same time the Tory share exceeded what happened in 2001 and what the national swing from May 5th would have indicated.
Has there ever been an election where both the UKIP and Tory vote shares have risen?
This was going to be tough for Labour because there was no risk of the Tories forming a government - the key message that got voters out at the General Election. But what was surprising was that Tony Blair’s tough stance on the EU, which has huge across the board support, seems to have done his party no good. This was something that many participants in our discussion forums had been predicting yet it did not happen. Why?
And are there any portents for the Lib Dems - hot favourites in next month’s Cheadle by-election following their poorish performance here? The party came out with a vote share that was lower than they got there in 1992 even though their current national opinion poll ratings are much higher.
Tonight’s party, at a pub in Belgravia, has been sponsored by IG Index and organised by book_value@hotmail.co.uk. There have also been one or two other donors. Thanks to all and I am really looking forward to meeting many of the people behind the names on the site.
Mike Smithson
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Have fun.
Sorry I cannot be there.
Sorry also that I cannot make it but I will be there in spirits - baccardi , brandy , whiskey , vodka etc .
Greetings to all, sorry I can’t be there.
Just a passing comment on the council by-elections: objectively, with the special exception of Labour biffing the BNP in London, they are uniformly good Tory results - not sensational, but good. I think the position is that Tory popularity overall is not up (hence the post-election polls) but willingness to turn out remains significantly higher than either of the others. Cheadle will test whether this is still true in a winnable seat.
Sorry i can not be there. I hope this will not be the last Such Event? Re South Staffs, probably puts paid to any early pressure on Howard to go. Find it bizarre some say a Pary Conference would be wasted, outside of the Party Anoraks themselves no one cares, the Tories can not afford to cock up this Choice. THey are wise to take their time. Watch Cameron and Clarke if they form a common front Mr Palmer may yet see an alternative to David Davis leading the Tories
Ps Nick Palmer where is Broxtowe?
4. Broxtowe is near Nottingham.
I too won’t be there tonight. Hope everyone enjoys themselves and there’s plenty of gossip to keep us going through the summer.
Have a great time tonight, everyone !
Yes, hope you all enjoy yourselves.
What’s the predicted turnout for tonight?
GQ - about 30 who have contacted me and expressed an interest.
Nick, I’d assumed Cheadle would be a Lib Dem walkover, giving the party’s ability to make gains at by-elections. It’s odd that the Tory leadership contest doesn’t seem to be doing them any damage. Parties in leadership contests tend to do worse I thought.
Now I wrongly posted that the Tories hadn’t won any parliamentary by-elections for years - how could I forget Kensington and Chelsea? But I’m sure one of you will be able to tell me how long it is since the last Tory gain at a by-election. Surely that can’t be later than the ’80s?
As for the Lib Dems’ poor showing, I would have thought the Lib Dems all but left the local party to working target council wards during the election and went to get started in Cheadle. Lib Dems only do well in by-elections if they go for it.
Sorry cannot be there …hope its a fun event….I will be at home plotting ever more fiendish punishments for Sir Clive Woodward..
10 - Mitcham and Morden, 3 June 1982.
Sorry I can’t come, hope you all have a good night!
Cheadle is going to come down firstly to how many of the 23,189 people who voted Lib Dem in May were voting for the party and how many were voting for Patsy Calton.
Most importantly what % of those 23,189 will be bothered to vote compared to the % of the 19,169 Tory voters that turn out. If 70% of the people who voted Lib Dem last time turned out and 85% of the Tories turn out the Lib Dems would lose it, so it’s not a guaranteed hold for them.
Cheadle could certainly be far more interesting than previously thought if the dynamics of Sth Staffs vote(which must surely be Tory diehard turnout related, allied to the unique spending restrictions inhibiting the LD’s ?)carry through ?
Still make it very much the LD’s to lose though - but certainly it must be considered far more ‘game on’ than we all thought before Thursday.
Sorry I won’t be there to bore you all and judge the ‘goose-stepping’ competition this evening.
Don’t forget to get the Resolve’s in / have a good time one and all.
As I pointed out before the South Staffs poll , for some reason Staffordshire as a whole is the Lib Dems weakest county . This is not a real problem under FPTP as with an overall vote of 23% it is necessary to have weak seats to counterbalance strong seats . For example if the Conservatives had polled 33% in every seat , they would have won no seats at all .
Cheadle will no doubt be hard fought by the Conservatives and Lib Dems and turn out will be much closer to the GE level .
On a seperate subject someone asked me if I knew what happened in the County Elections where one of the major parties did not put up a candidate . My analysis shows that their supporters did actually vote but a small number deliberately spoilt their ballot papers presumably by writing their own party’s name on it . Typically spoilt papers were in the 20 - 40 range in a ward rising to around 100 - 150 where 1 of the major parties was absent . A couple of examples Ilkestone ( no Liberal ) 140 spoilt papers . Matlock ( no Labour ) 104 spoilt papers . Bolsover SW ( no Conservative or Liberal but a Soc-ialist Alternative candidate ) 183 spoilt papers .
Good party to everyone! And take some photos (and post them later, I’m curious to discover how some posters look like).
17 - Agree Andrea but we also would like to see what you look like in return - Sophia Loren look-alike perhaps .
18.”Sophia Loren look-alike perhaps ”
I’m still not a drag queen.
Conventional wisdom has it that Green votes tend to harm Labour and Lib Dem and UKIP votes the Conservatives . Some clues to the truth of this may come from County Council elections 2 seat wards where the major parties each put up 2 candidates but Green or UKIP only 1 . Soome examples from this year follow . I have also given the first letter of the candidate’s surname as it does show that the bias in voting towards having a surname starting with a letter at the beginning of the alphabet still exists .
Kent CC Herne Bay Con 5189(H) and 5189(L) Lib 4530(F) and 3928(O) Lab 3207(H) and 2879(N) UKIP 938
Kent CC Gravesham East Lab 7060(C) and 6726(N) Con 6304(M) and 5671(W) Lib 1990(M) and 1909(S) Green 1102
Kent CC Deal Lab 6197(B) and 5774(E) Con 5056(R) and 4472(T) Lib 2715(A)and 2482(F) Green 1188
Kent CC Maidstone Central Lib 6252(D) and 4285(P) Con 4486(C) and 4258(C) Lab 3567(D) and 3231(C) Green 1294 UKIP 854
Warwicks CC Stratford South Con 3964(H) and 3737(P) Lib 3407(F) and 2903(C) Lab 1100(S) and 1036(W) Green 789
You cannot assume of course that no-one split their vote Con/Lab or Lab/Lib etc in fact a small number of people in a 3 seat ward will give 1 vote to each major party .
Mike asked “Has there ever been an election where both the UKIP and Tory vote shares have risen?”
By my reckoning there were about 150 constituencies where both the CON and UKIP share grew from 2001-2005, including for example Bedford.
I have just come back from the politicalbetting.com Party. Despite what it says at the start of this thread, I think there was very little talk about South Staffordshire - rather more about Cheadle, I reckon. A very civilised event, with about 25-30 people present. They all seemed much more reasonable in person than they sometimes do on the screen! MAny thanks to the sponsors, the Smithsons, Book Value and everyone else who made it a very entertaining evening. Yes, rest assured, photos were taken.
22 - I second that!
…And, hic, guffaw, (on the last train home), I’ll third that.
Rik, Great to meet you…what’s your e-mail again - forgotten already!!? Drop me a line at john-oreilly@tiscali.co.uk. All the best…and yes, a fun evening, and honestly very little (if any) party point-scoring.
Excellent any Pictures?
Yes - a really enjoyable evening and a great pleasure to meet many of the people who have taken part in our discussions. Lucille, my son’s partner and designer of our masthead, took a lot of pictures and we will be featuring them as soon as possible.
Apart from those who have already posted, it was good to meet InnocentAbroad, Sophia, James O, BookValue, Graham, Tabman, David Kendrick and several others who said they rarely post (Paul, Roger and another James, I think). There was plenty of food and the free drinks lasted until the end!!
When’s the next one?
27. How about asking Adrea to host a special PB one in the land of la dolce vita for next years Italian ELECTIONS! oNLY kiddinga.
Well I think we have a mexican correspondent and they have elections earlier than Italy. But beer and sausages first.
Yes indeed - it was wonderful to be able to put faces to names. Once again, many many thanks to Philip and all the Smithsons for a great evening… it’s amazing how much you can get out of an activity when all you have in mind is to put something into it
And yes, Mike, I did notice Lucille snapping my enormous hooter…
That said (as it were), James O wanted my e-mail address so here it is - mikekillingworth@ntlworld.com
I see Andrew CXracknell and David Porter are claiming KC in the Sunday Times is serously considering supporting Lansley. If that’s the case he really must be a few cigars short of a Full pack. 1. Almost anyonr even Boris is more electable than him,. 2. Why would KC who seemns highly likely to run himself support someone who has no chance whatsoever wasting his time. So want a bet this is one of those “storiesw” put about by “friends” to make him seemn more important than he really is?
Just to echo the thanks for a great evening last night.
I’ve been an avid reader of the site, but a rare poster up until now. I might start contributing a bit more now that I know that some of the names really exist.
Look forward to seeing the photos.
An excellent, goodnatured and interesting evening. Talking sensibly about politics is a rare treat for me (especially at UKIP meetings….)
The crowded and grim last train home gave me time to muse about how few social-ists or Nu Lab attendees there were. Maybe after 8+ years of real power, its all getting a bit stale for them?
“22 - I second that!” I’ll third that! It was great to put faces to names and I can’t remember too much about the latter part of the evening (had one to many glasses of vino…) so god knows what I was saying by the end…
28.” How about asking Adrea to host a special PB one in the land of la dolce vita for next years Italian ELECTIONS”
As The Independent pointed out a few days ago we could say farewell to “la dolce vita” for the moment: we’re in an economic crisis now.
) and some communists too.
Although you could always ask Mr Blair for some advices about some nice villas in Tuscany (Sophia, there’re good wines there). but the tories posters should pay attention there’re many leftwinged people there (Tabman is still shocked by this news
A very jolly gathering- good to put names to faces- and indeed names to names. Thanks to the Smithsons, to IG and to Book Value. Now, time for a little lie down…
Back home safe and sound after Pb party in super pub in v posh part of Belgravia. Many thanks to Book Value and IG. People looked less anoraky than I expected even two attractive women there (though no Jody Dunn or Jo Crotty). Rik Willis seemed, I am searching for the word …, rational(?), human(?) - of course the full moon was a few days ago wasn’t it. But what is he doing in today’s Tory party I ask myself!!
Pimms and BBQ in the garden now - Belgravia is catching.
Thank you all for coming - it was really no trouble to organise and I had a very enjoyable evening. So what shall we do for the Christmas party?
35. Did you read the Times Article the other week on Bologna? Fascinating differences in our countries, with usd the Countryside is true blue Conservative, in yours red socialist/communist. Rather undermines MArx’s theory about peasants being Conservsative against Factory Workers Left wing Socialisma.
Ps Economic Crisis or no Britain seems in vogue in Italy at the moment with soime Italian Politicians floating the idea of a Rome-London Axis to replace Paris-Berlin Axis. Though of course if Prodi becomes PM next year UK-Italian relations will probably head for the deep freeeze again.
Icarus 37. After you left Icarus Rik revealed that he had been in the SDP and stuck with the David Owen faction after the merger with the Liberal Party in 1987He could not stand Liberals then - as now.
So I was close but not close enough. I thought it was clear that he wasn´t really a Tory. Now we know - an Owenite. If only it were Robert and not David…
If he supported david Owen then he will be happy in the current Tory party Me, Me, Me,!!!
41 -Icarus - dont spoil the spirit of bon homie that exists after last night!
Was Rik W really a SDP?
Anyone see the Funday Times Tory Leadership Story? Vis Post 31.
Good to hear you all had a great time but only 2 attractive women is not a high enough percentage .
On a previous thread bristol barry I think it was was discussing Exeter . Having consolidated the County Council results I can confirm the Lib Dems outpolled the other parties . Full results were :-
Con 13,547
Lab 17,414
Lib Dem 17,530
Liberal 2,774
Others 3,883
The old Liberal party does seem to be fading only 2 of its candidates polling significant votes
Mark
I have a spreadsheet on this which I will send to you. It shows - if I remember correctly - that the Lib Dems also won on the new Exeter boundaries.
47 - Yes please Peter , info on the new boundaries especially welcome My Email markseniorcoins@msn.com
47-48. How are the notional results for new seats calculated?
Hi Andrea , Sometimes with great difficulty but in the case of Exeter it is relatively easy . The present Exeter seat is composed of 18 wards ( 9 County Council wards ) results in the Couny elections shown by me above are directly comparable to the GE result and show the much higher vote for the Lib Dems in the County elections .
The new Exeter seat loses 2 wards ( 1 County ward ) so it is easy to calculate new figures by taking off the votes in that County Ward Con - 2,081 Lab - 1,261 Lib Dem - 954 Liberal - 914 Others - 524 . Hence the new seat is less favourable to the Conservatives and more favourable to Labour and the Lib Dems .
Other new seats are much more complicated and in any case as I have shown allowance must also be made for the fact that the Lib Dems poll much higher in the local elections .
Hope that is some help
50. Thanks Mark Senior . My doubts were about how it was taken into account that some parties could perform better in local elections.
When the votes are counted in a General Election, isn’t it possible to know the results ward by ward (or better polling station by polling station)?
49, Andrea, have a look at this
http://pollingreport.co.uk/blog/index.php
and scroll down to the fifth item on New Parliamentary Boundaries for a brief description by Anthony Wells.
51 Andrea, essentially no, the results are barred from being declared in small units (otherwise my task in writing the Almanac would be much easier).
The difference between local and general results, even on the same day (which I first measured in an article in Political Studies in 1980 - the Liberals did about 6 - 8% better in the 1979 election locally and that’s still pretty much true!):
This is taken into account by the fact that the votes have to add up to the votes actually cast in the general election. So if the Lib Dems scored 36% say in local elections across a constituency, but only 30% in the general election, a ward within the seat where they got 18% might be notionally reduced to 12% - should that ward be moved to another seat it is the lower figure that would be used.
That’s putting it in simple and I guess unclear terms!
52. thanks Robert Waller.
When will the new boundary changes be finalised? If I’ve understiid well, the changes that have been proposed could still be reviewed?
52/53 - Thanks for that explanation Robert - saved me having to write out something the same
54 - In some areas of the country , the new boundaries are final for example Devon but in others , they are still at recommendation stage . Not sure when they will all be completed
Robert, it’s clear. I suspected that something like this is made to take into account the difference between general election and local elections.
Why are the results barred from being declared in small units?
57 Andrea - just to annoy people like us!
No, I imagine it is something to do with the principle of preserving anonymity of voters - some wards are very small. In the Census, some results are suppressed when the n is very low.
If you want an example of how a new constituency notional is worked out, you can go to that Anthony Wells thread I recommended, look at the comments - he justifies his Lib Dem lead in the new York Outer seat in detail.
Yet it is illogical, since local election results are declared at ward level, of course. You can get very useful sub-area figures for national elections in the USA and France, at least, as I’ve used them.
58. “You can get very useful sub-area figures for national elections in the USA and France, at least, as I’ve used them. ”
In Italy we could have results polling station by polling station (with a polling station usually having less than 1000 voters). But the difference is that we count the votes directly in the polling station and so it’s not possible to hide the partial results of each polling station.
54. Andrea
When will the reviewes be complete?
Threre are four separate Boundary Commissions (England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland).
Two have completed their fifth periodical reviews (Scotland and Wales), and in Scotland’s case was implemented in time for this year’s General Election.
According to the English Boundary Commission’s latest annual report (http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pbc/downloads/BCEAnnualReport04-05.doc) they are due to finish late summer 2006.
Northern Ireland has just announced local inquiries in September for their seats, so I guess they should finish before England.
Sorry I missed the party last night but glad to hear it went so well. And like everyone else I can’t wait to see the photos!
I saw Francis Maude on TV this morning. He wasn’t wearing a tie or jacket and his lumberjack check shirt was unbuttoned nearly to his naval. A clear signal that he’s about to throw his hat into the ring I suppose? I’m worried that the next contender might feel obliged to go topless. But he was good. The most coherent advocate of what the Tory party should be for and what it’s got wrong that I’ve heard so far. If I was a Tory Francis would have my vote. He also avoided the smugness that is such a feature of Tory politicians (particularly Fox, Davis, Howard and Rifkind)
46. Mark yes we did win Exeter under old or new boundaries. The rump Liberal party were expecting to win one of the seats - in the event they were not close. Their PPC also stood in the division where she is a sitting city councillor and came fourth.
In Australia the results are available by polling station at least for the first preferences and some of them are absolutely tiny (in the outback for example).
62 - Jon , The more difficult task though is to translate the Council votes into the same level in a GE . It is not impossible as Norman Lamb showed in North Norfolk
60. Thanks
61.”I saw Francis Maude on TV this morning. He wasn’t wearing a tie or jacket and his lumberjack check shirt was unbuttoned nearly to his naval. A clear signal that he’s about to throw his hat into the ring I suppose? I’m worried that the next contender might feel obliged to go topless. But he was good. ”
If the shirt was unbuttoned, it means that he’s a serious contender.
Theresa May could soon appear on Newsnight wearing a leopard bikini (naturally matched with leopard-print shoes).
Alan Duncan, having already posed for a naked calendar, is now obliged to show even the little he didn’t show the last time.
We’re all praying that Nicholas Soames won’t decide to throw his hat into the ring…
64 - And Ann Widdecombe - lol
65. oh God, yes I forgot about her.
61 and 64 - Francis Maude will definitely NOT be a candidate. He is the Party Chairman and cannot stand from that position or publicly back another candidate. He could of course resign but I dont believe that will happen.
Robert @ 53 et alibi: Do you have plans for a revision of the Almanac? (I haven’t even seen the recent edition, unfortunately). I was hoping that you might do so for publication in about 15 months, to keep us up to date with a) MP changes and b) new constituency boundaries; I suppose that this wouldn’t involve quite as much work as preparing a completely new edition. Let’s hope this encourages you in that direction, anyway.
Rik your views on post 31?
Ps 62 Who’s wea?
68, Byron Criddle and I have signed a contract for the 8th edition, text due Aug 2006 (publication asap thereafter) It will include the 2005 results and new MPs, but will also cover the boundary changes, so meant to be useful for next election. I have already started work on this (though suspended till late July for examining commitments).
I would appreciate all advice, help, contributions (as always stated, and acknowledged, in the prefaces)!
70 - Robert very happy to help in anyway I can! What are you looking for?
67. So the umbottoned shirt was not a signal. Maybe the only reason for the unbottoned shirt was that it was hot (the weather I mean. Is it at least hot in UK? It didn’t seem very sunny judging what I saw from Wimbledon yesterday).
All those tories without a tie, even Susan Kramer (the MP for Richmond Park) was making fun about it. Maybe they’re trying to launch a new fashion style for MPs.
72. TH
72. Other Politicians who usew not wearing ties to send a message are Iranian ones.
Robert @ 70: Excellent news. I shall be on the look-out for it. I’d love to help, but I rely on you for information, so don’t hold your breath. All power to your pen, and that of Mr Criddle too.
70 - Robert Waller - I would suggest that you drop a line to Mark Senior (address above) as he seems to have a lot of information to hand.
With all these boundary changes, I think that the next elections will be more interesting and a bit more difficult to predict.
Andrea few questioons on Italy.
Do you have boundary Commisions in Italy Andrea?
Were you surprised at the referendum? Will we see the Vatican flex it’s muscles more now?
Some your politicians talking about New Rome-London Axis is this just fantasy? Prodi comes PM surely relations in deep freeze again, does Veltroni have a Chance?
Thanks.
Andrea [77] - that has certainly been the past experience with new boundaries. For example this last time the Scottish Tories thought they’d win a seat they didn’t, but won one they regarded as more difficult. And in 1983 a Tory MP switched seats, lost the one he moved to while the new Tory candidate held the one he spurned! (I daresay there are examples in respect of the other parties, too.)
To plagiarise Graham’s wit shamelessly after a particularly fine journey home - I’m with Sophia, let’s renationalise the railways!
Good to meet everyone last night - thanks to Phil and IA for organising things, and, ultimately, to Mike and Robert for thinking of and running the site.
Some interesting facts if/when the photos arive: Rik is not really 6′5″, he’s standing on a box. Either that or there are clever camera angles involved. Any resemblance between myself and an over-pounded under-follicled 30-something are purely factual.
And we did discuss Cheadle, but not as much as the Tories discussed their future leader …
71, 75, 76 many thanks. I always welcome any constituency knowledge eg which areas are considered best for which party, and why; local issues which might affect elections; local developments of all kinds eg new housing, changes in economic base; council control and its effects; and any quirky information about the area which might liven up the profiles. Byron would probably appreciate information about MPs. I am not interested in partisan points, but the contributors to this site clearly have some phenomenal knowledge.
Rik, thanks to you. I am not bad on Sutton and Cheam, as I work about half a mile outside the seat (perhaps you might be able to find the time to talk to our Politics sixth form now the election’s over?!), but I’m sure you have more insights.
81 Robert - very happy to talk to your sixth form. YOu will find that I have detailed knowledge of areas other than just Sutton!
77. About boundary changes, I think it’s not authomatic that a Labour voter in a seat will still be a labour voter in the new seat too (the same thing for other parties). If some candidate has a personal vote, the situation could become more complicated. For ex. if I have had been a voter in Brent South, I would have probably voted for Sarah Teather, but in a Teather/Jackson fight in Hampstead & Kilburn, I would probably vote for Glenda.
And tactical voters could be a problem too. If a labour voter tactically vote Libdems to keep the tories out in a seat, but his ward will be moved in a labour/tories marginal, he could probably for Labour next time.
78. 1) We don’t have a boundary commisions. We haven’t never had boundary changes since 1994. The Home Office Secretary talked about the possibility to do some changes last month, but the opposition parties immediatly started to accume him to do so to have better boundaries. So nobody talked about it anymore. If they’ll make some changes, they’ll do it after the next year elections.
2) no surprise at all. The majority of parties said not to vote, so it was predictable the low turnout. And the government placed the referendum on june and turnout is always lower in june. Many people didn’t understand what the referendum was about (even some people who went to vote probably didn’t what they were voting about). I was a scrutineer (don’t know if it’s the right word; I looked in the dictionary and it gave me this word) at the referundum and it was fun to see voters voting and then looking at the turnout (schools are used as polling stations and the turnout is usually written on the blackboard) and making comments not always nice towards the Italians in general and the Church.
The Church has always been powerfull here and always will be. A lot of talks in UK for Ruth Kelly and Opus Dei, here opus dei is in good relationships with almost all parties.
3) with Prodi as PM (and the communists holding cabinet positions; they seem to detest Blair. He’s portrayed in newspapers linked to them as monster; although not as much as the Iron Lady. My mother saw a documentary on History Channel and she said she was an horrible monster:.she should be send in some mines) relationships between Italy and UK will be probably less closer than with Berlusconi as PM (Berlusconi really admires Blair).
82. “YOu will find that I have detailed knowledge of areas other than just Sutton! ”
I suppose Reading East is one of the area you have knowledge about.
82 “Perchance to Cheam?”
84 - may I add, Rik, that in person you are a distinctly affable chap, your 80s follies notwhistanding
81 - not sure whether this is sensible technically, but how about a separate thread for constituency profiles? I’m not sure if I can contribute anything that you don’t know already but would be happy to contribute my knowledge of Broxtowe, Cheadle and Sheffield.
Very much looking forward to the new almanac anyway - it’s coffee table reading in our house - you’d be surprised how many people who wouldn’t normally express an interest in politics pick it up and become engrossed.
84 - Cheam is in Sutton Borough
83 Andrea that and more - lol!
87 - do you stretch to Slough?
23 Railway Cuttings, East Cheam. That’s very nearly an armful.
88 - not in great detail no. But I was Berkshire Area Deputy Chairman until last year.
An excellent evening - thanks BV & IA (it was a great place - I’d say book now for Christmas) kind sponsors and Mike. Good to meet everyone & sorry to have bailed on the slivovice…
87.”Andrea that and more - lol!”
Do you have some knowledge about some areas where some “strange” results happened (like Solihull or why Enfield Southgate fell, while Labour held E. North)?
83 Andrea, is Prodi nailed on as the Centre Left Candidate? I bet Berlusconi is praying so, as he is the only centre Left Candidate he could beat. Does Veltroni have a Chance to overtake him? Was his heeding of the vatican’s call in comtrast to Ciampi perhaps cynical positioning to the catholicfamily vote ifhe is the center Left’s CandidateA for Prime Minister next year?
Ps Rik Do you have Sources in Walesw?
82, Rik, Thanks very much - I didn’t imply that you only knew about S&C; “more insights” covers a multitude of possibilities!
86, John C, thanks v much indeed for your comments. I have always held that the Almanavc isn’t really about politiucs, it’s about the UK. I try to smuggle non-electoral stuff in all the time. I stole the idea from Michael Barone’s Almanac of American Politics, which I think is the best guidebook to the USA and which I’ve enjoyed extensively as I’ve collected 49 states. It’s vastly better than its British equivalent if anyone is interested and can get hold of a copy.
89, East Cheam doesn’t exist as far as I know. There’s a North Cheam and a South Cheam (somewhat unlikely home of the Guardian columnist David McKie, a great man). Perhaps if I ever found it (once in 100 years?) I might see The Bowmen walking across that field with the old mineshaft ..
(sorry, others, Tony Hancock in-joke).
90 - really? Did you ever have dealings with the Berkshire Hunt during your time there?
91 - Valerie, nice to put a face to a name.
92 Taking things for granted Labour poured resources into Enfield North. twigg apparently blithely assumed he was safea, he woke up to some danger and rang the alarm belel but too late and nor too hard, even on Election night he though he was just about Ok until he said he saw the Local Tories jumping up and down. The surge in the Lib Dem vote did for himaa..
Robert Waller how much does your almanac cost?
97, too dam’ much, I’m afraid. When the last edition was published it was around GBP 37.50.
You may be able to get one cheaper through Amazon or second hand booksellers (or Politico’s), especially as it’s now partially out of date due to the election.
Thanks v much for the interest!
By the way, folks, there was one other interesting topic of conversation last night, that kept everyone talking at some length. Seriously, the question was, “Who is Andrea?” One of our number was corrected in the mistaken belief that Andrea was female, but the other theories were probably equally wide of the mark. Is Andrea an academic? Or a journalist? How is he able to be so well-informed about British geography, when the rest of us still get our Wyre Forests and our Wyres crossed? Had he once been a member of the European Parliament, and fallen into bad company with some anorak from the British delegation?
So, how about it, Andrea? Can you give us just a few clues, without breaking any confidences?
93. If Prodi will be dumped, Berlusconi will be dumped too. If Berlusconi will be dumped, Prodi will be dumped too.
96. More than a Libdems surge, in Enfield Southgate there were a tory surge (+6% compared to the +1.4% achieved in London).
I don’t know the characteristics of the 2 seats. Anything in particular that could have helped a such big swing in Southgate (maybe other that the swing for Twigg was big the previous time) and so small in Enfiled North?
Tomorrow’s big event: Baroness Jenny Tonge’s introduction to the House of Lords.
IIRW, someone (a tory I think) here mentioned to have had her as a MP and was not pleased by her.
and a stupid thing, why did Chris Smith become Lord Smith of Finsbury and not Lord Smith of Islington?
99, didn’t Andrea say something once about having exams, or was it lectures - so a student perhaps? (might account for having so much time for us ..!)
By the way, Sean Thomas’s piece about Foula in the Shetlands appeared in yesterday’s Times Review.
The tone was quite reasonable.
All of Finsbury, as well as the centre of Islington, lies within his old constituency. Not sure why he didn’t choose it: there isn’t currently a Lord Islington since the last holder of the title died in 1936. New peers who are ex-MPs don’t have to choose their ex-constituencies, and can’t do so if the previous occupant or a hereditary has already snagged the area; popular alternatives include places of residence or birth.
BTW, Robert, what results will you use in London? The 2002 boroughs, or the 2004 GLA ward breakdowns?
Don’t know for sure, but certainly from personal experience Smith carried quite a personal vote in the Finsbury part of his former constituency (the old Metropolitan Borough of Finsbury is now covered by two current Islington Council wards; Clerkwenwell & Bunhill). Finsbury covers roughly 25% of the constituency.
Incidentally, he couldn’t be “of Clerkenwell” as Lib Dem Euro MP (and ex-Clerkenwell councillor) Sarah Ludford is “Baroness Ludford of Clerkenwell” …
Until 1964 Finsbury was a Borough in it’s own right, indeed as a result of the dissolution of the monasteries the pre 1918 Finsbury constituency included araes, such as Finsbury Park, that were separated from the remainder of the Borough.
It has a distinct feel and my recollection is that Chris Smith lives within the former Finsbury boundaries.
Whilst a councillor he represented the Barnsbury ward with one, Margaret E Hodge.
My bet is that she will become Baroness Hodge od Chislehurst. Why? The Oppenheim family home was in Chislehurst.
99-101-
“Had he once been a member of the European Parliament, and fallen into bad company with some anorak from the British delegation?”
When I firstly read it, I read “bed” insted of “bad”….I’m sure I’ve never slept with a British MEP.
Robert Waller got it right: I’m a student.
Why do you think I’m well-informed about British geography?
56-57 we have a polling district in Greenwich and Woolwich with 42 electors.
Andrea at one hundred. So neither Prodi or Berlusconi are nailed on to be the PM Candidates for next year? Are their fates intertwined? If so why? IS Veltroni a goer?
Robert WAller, what is the full title of your work? I have a better idea i will get my local Library to buy it and rent it from them. Cheersa.
107- but even if the result for a polling district with only few voters is revealed, what’s the problem?
If I know that 40 voted Labour, 10 the tories and 2 Libdems in that polling district, the voting intentions are still secret (I don’t know who voted who).
Btw, why there’re polling districts with so few voters?
We have polling districts so little only in mountain municipalities, because they’re isolated from the rest of the world. We have a municipality with 52 voters for the Senate in 2001 and the result was revealed. So it’s easy to try to figure out who voted who (especially since 37 out 52 voted the same party).
108. The centre-left candidate will be decided in an open primary election in October. So far the candidates are: Prodi, Bertinotti (the communist leader), the greens leader and Di Pietro (a former magistrate who as a personalistic list which is part of the centre-left coalition). So he should win.
He’s afraid to be dumped again if they’ll win the election, so he wants that the leaders of other coalition parties will sign a document in which they promise that they would never change the PM during the next term (Brown should take note when Blair will promise to him to stand down again).
IMHO, the 2 candidates will be Berlusconi and Prodi. Verltroni will run again for Rome mayors and he’ll win at the first round quite easly.
108. W2hy not Veltroni, they are afriad to vote for someone who might make then electable? If not Berlusconi then who? If you sayt no Profoi, no Berlusconi his mates mustr think like me Prodi is the only one he can beat, so if not Prodi then stepf forward the Centre Right Candidate for PM and Possible future PM, Gianfraco Fini?
110. If the centre-left will chose a young candidate, the centre-right could fear to lose with Berlsconi as leader. They could try to chnage the candidate (probably Casini). The problem is that Berlusconi is not willing to go and he controls a whole party (Forza Italia) and without him Forza Italia could collapse.
Fini has problems in his own party at the moment after the referendum (he voted).
Prodi is not a bad candidate. He would probably a disastrous candidate in UK, but Italy is a different country.
104 - You are wrong. You can have more than one Lord of the same place. There is a Lord Wright of Richmond, Lord Watson of Richmond (both representing Surrey) and a Baroness Harris of Richmond (Yorkshire), there is also soon to be Lord Jones of Cheltenham joining Lord Holme of Cheltenham on the Lib Dem benches. Sarah Ludford’s title is also not “of Clerkenwell”. The important thing is that she has a comma after Ludford and so the “of Clerkenwell” is just secondary to her main title which is Baroness Ludford.
Andrea, at first sight the Enfield results were very odd. But probably, it is the results from 2001 that were the real anomaly. Southgate was traditionally a safe Conservative seat, North went with the national tide. Both seats reverted to type in 2001.
113. I read many times that Twigg was a popular MP, so I expected him to survive with a reduced majority (maybe as junior minister he had less time to take care of his constituency).
Oops. I should have said reverted to type in 2005.
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