Could the Tories risk a young leader again?
June 27th, 2005
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Has the Hague experience blighted Cameron’s chances?
Apart from having gone to Eton - his parent’s decision, one assumes, and not his - the other concern about David Cameron’s candiditure is his age. After the experience of William Hague, who was surely promoted too quickly, there are worries about handing the leadership to someone in their 30s.
The Howard pattern - going for someone in their 60s - was going in the opposite direction and this might be another factor that could hurt Ken Clarke.
My current favourite market on the contest is Sporting Index’s BetHilo spread on the age of the next Tory leader. The current spread is 51-53 years which, in many ways, looks a more cost effective way of betting on David Davis than the current best bookie price of 1/2.
Assuming that the new leader will be in place on November 1st 2005 this is what a £50 a unit spread bet would produce for each of the leading contenders:-
Ken Clarke born 2nd July 1940 +£600
Malcolm Rifkind born 21st June 1946 +£300
David Davis born 23rd December 1948 +£200
Andrew Lansley 11 December 1956 -£250
Liam Fox born 22nd September 1961 -£350
David Cameron born 9th October 1966 -£700
So a BUY bet gives you Clarke, Davis and Rifkind while with a sell bet you are on Lansley, Fox and Cameron and your winnings or losses will be determined by the actual age of Michael Howard’s successor when the transition takes place.
My sense is that the party will go for an old ‘un rather than a young ‘un and the buy bet might produce a good return.
Mike Smithson
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Was Yesterdays Sunday Times Report Credible, that Clartke might consider supporting Lansley? Why would KC waster his time to support saomeone with less chance than him? Anyone think this is mere puffery by “friends” of Lansley?
I still think KC has a chance if only he can get Cameron and Willets behind him, they are key to persuading the new intake who haven’t built up entrenched views o0f personalities that their best hope of ever obtaining a ministerial Red box is through hima.
Its a real shame that William Hague (now aged 44!) is not standing. He would be a much better choice than most of the other (if not all) candidates. Hopefully he will get a prime post in the new shadow cabinet (shadow chancellor?) and then outshine Shadow Leader David Davis!
I think it just “feels” to early for Hague’s return to be credible - choosing him again would make the Tories look a bit laughable. You can’t rule him out in future though, I don’t think.
3. Precisely, he needs a decade to pass before 2001 becomes Ancient History as opposed to Current History. He’llm probably be a better Leader for it having learn’t some hard and bitter experiences.
Any Views on my Post at 1??
Hague could be our John Howard (but with more charisma).
1 - I think you are probably right, Ken is hardly self-denying at the best of times so why he would back someone with no chance I don’t know.
5 - Can you still send Lynton Crosby back, though?
2. Other former Leader tipped for Shadow Cabinet Post by a couple of contenders according to D’Ancona the other other weeks is none other than IDS! Fair dues he may have a been a hopless Leader but his foundation is coming out with Ideas, which is i guess what these Contenders hope to harness, even though his assassination probablr saved the Tories from being overtaken by the Lib Dems!
6.; Do you feel as i do though that Cameron-Willetts is the key for Ken, get them on board and suddenly he has a very real as opposed to prospective Chance with such a powerful common fronta, to that end if he was wise he would look to bury any hatchet with Howard now.
8 - maybe the best chance he has. I’m not sure it would be a wise move for Cameron though, to tie himself to someone who most of the newer Tory MPs probably see as something of a fading figure from the past.
“Other former Leader tipped for Shadow Cabinet Post by a couple of contenders according to D’Ancona the other other weeks is none other than IDS”
Oh please no. At least with David Davis, IDS probably wouldn’t want to serve under him. Rik assured me that William Hague would have no problem serving under DD so it would be good to have him back in some high ranking (well as relative as that is!) position.
its a good bet Mike, but the downside on Cameron is pretty steep - he still seems the most likely if not DD - and the possibiliity of winning £200 as opposed to losing £700 aren’t amazing odds.
Dont agree that Hague was promoted too young. it WAS too early though, there is a difference. IMHO he was twice the leader back then than Davis would be now its nothing to do with age but it was a poisoned chalice in 97, his only mistake was to run at all.
I really don’t think his age is a barrier in fact the contrary. It’s his lack of charisma and general drippiness that puts me off. He is the archetypal caricature of a foppish Old Etonian. Similar to Prince Harry but without the rebellion.
It’s all very well saying that the choice of going to Eton was not his but his parents but the choice of then becoming a Tory was his.
If he’d become a lion tamer during his gap year….
but leaving Eton to work his way through the Tory party is about as predictable as it gets. It also means that in 1984 when Mrs T was going through her crash and burn period sixteen year old Cameron was either too insulated to notice or just as likely too uncaring.
The only plus is that he probably looks OK tieless, jacketless or topless which seems to be crucial for wannabe Tory leaders.
How your views have changed Roger:
It’s the first time I’ve heard Cameron and he’s far and away the most impressive Tory on show. Much more so than the lightweight Osborne. Someone to watch after May 5th?
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2005/04/email_form.php?p=810
Cameron. They’ll need a complete spring clean after this campaign. They need to sweep away all the vestiges of the Thatcher/Howard era. Just leave them like ornaments on the backbences like Labour did with Benn and co. Wheel them out for some nostalgic on Question Time etc where they can rail against the new ‘inclusiveness that wasn’t around in my day….’
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2005/04/email_form.php?p=819
Perhaps Roger @ 13 he was inteligent enough to understand that what Mrs T was doing was a necessary evil that has left us with the economy we have today.Dont forget he will have been old enough and intelligent enough during the winter of discontent to see that the other model did not work.
Also Roger, Cameron did work outside politics, which is more than can be said for some others in parliament, for Michael Green at Carlton.
8. But reminds me of the Benedict XVI situation you can bet, many younger contenders realising they had no chance this time were far happier to support him in views of hisa age meaning there would be vancy much sooner regardless than if younger man became Pope. Similarly with Cameron if backing Ken means stopping David Davis, it’s the smart move as he will have another Chance much sooner regardless of tyhe next Election result. Justas it was “smart” for David Davis to pass on the Chance to lead the Conservatives into the uphill Strugglea that was the 2005 Election.
Roger how many luminaries of the Labour Party have been privately educated? Let me see. Attlee, Foot, Healey?, Blair ad infinitum, put away the bile.
Sorry 17 was for 9.
13.”The only plus is that he probably looks OK tieless, jacketless or topless which seems to be crucial for wannabe Tory leaders. ”
Do you think that all the wannabe leaders will be obliged to present themself shirtless in front of the party members at the next party conference?
I fear that some of the oldest members (so half of the party members)could have an heart attack caused by the excitement of this vision.
I’ve just noticed, looking at the party photos, that Rik W was tieless at the party. Maybe he has a secret plan to run for the leadership….
Andrea [19] - on that basis we were all planning to run for the Tory leadership
Perhaps, if Paul Burstow keels over in the next couple of months, Rik might get the chance to stand…..
Sophia my biographer! How long have you had your researcher working on the project?
Seriously it’s true and I was mistaken. I saw him once and had a favourable impression bur recently, since he’s been a contender and I’ve looked more closely I’ve realized that he’s just not got IT. About as bad as Hague in ‘97. I’m beginning to like the look of Willets but even more so Francis Maude.
Francis Maude would split the party: there is plenty of resentment from his involvement in the Hague-Portillo frictions before 2001 and the downfall of IDS. He wasn’t brillant as a shadow in any case.
I suspect that, as far as MPs are concerned, IDS might have some influence as a kingmaker, as there are a few MPs around who regret the way he was dethroned.
20. but it seems that all are really planning to run.
I have to admit that my observation was pretty stupid and unfunny.
Will Labour have a beauty contest to decide the next leader too? A shirtless Brown could face serious problems (but maybe women find him sexy).
“I’m beginning to like the look of Willets but even more so Francis Maude. ”
If you think Willets or god help us Maude are better than Hague or Cameron, you either mad or a die hard labour supporter, suggesting the worst option…
You have to remember that when someone becomes leader they automatically get a certain gravitas. Both those I have mentioned seem reasonable, thoughtful and honest. Add to that thegravitas that the leadership will give them and you might have got your person. I admit that the field is thin and Clark would be far and away the best candidate but I’m assuming that his unpopularity with Conservatives rules him out.
I had thought Rifkind was a possibility but he is just so old fashioned he will be a Godsend to the Lib Dems when they get a new better leader.
David Willetts, sadly, is a real problem to place. He’s the best thinker available to the Party in Parliament on strategy and policy, but, unlike Brown on the other side, he doesn’t come across well enough in public to take on a high-profile role. He’s fundamentally a man of government, rather than of Opposition. I really hope he is the next Conservative Chancellor: he has the brains and the creativity for the job.
I find it bizarre that people can think that someone who was about a big a disaster as possible would make a good leader 4 years later.
26. Don’t rule out Ken Roger, see my post at 8. Oh and tone it down you sound like Diane Abbott, used to when she campaigned for the abolition of Private Schools, before that is she put her own Son first and sent him to one. Presumably he should now be excluded from Politics in your Opinion?
BTW , Speaking to several Republicans over the last week , I was taken aback by their utter hostility to the Tories and complete indifference to who leads the Tories or what they’ve got to say. In short the Republican attitude to the Tories was that they could “go f*** themselves.”
TB remains hugely popular over the pond and in political circles GB is admired and considered to be a “safe pair of hands”.
Going way off topic, but am I alone in thinking that ID cards (and its implementation), is going to be a disaster for the government on a pretty huge scale and will have a great impact on events across the board.
28.Hard to remember just how popular Tone was in 1997-2001, add in fresh memories of the Major Govt and no one but no one would have stood a Chance. Hague made a couple of bad errors but ultimately they made little or no differencea to the actual result.
While Hague definitely made errors (the biggest one was standing for election in 1997 in the first place) he now has a rounded persona, and more maturity. The problem, though, is that his political hunger has decreased. That’s something which I personally think will happen to many senior politicos who have single-mindedly been immersed in the political world since their teens. Charles Kennedy, for instance, could well decide to move out of frontline politics in this Parliament if he has a big setback.
30. According to an Oborne Story the other week au contraire GB is not exactly Mr Popular in the Bush Whit House anyway.
AS for the Republicans, well Blair is so popular opposing him is akin to treason. Anyway their once mighty discipline is breaking down beneath Bush’s Sinking approval numbers, and jockeying for the Presidential Nomination( See the EConomist Last Week), Their Hegemony may not be as secure as it appears. Any case a new Tory Leader standing Shoulder to shoulder with the US wouls soon acquire all the “popularity Blair ever had over there.
Just been reading a research note on the educational background of MPs. What was suprising is how little it has changed since the war. 15-20% of Labour MPs are consistently privately educated and 65-75% of Tory MPs. I was surpisd since the % of self-made Tories didn’t change at all during the Thatcher years when the party was meant to be getting an influx of estate agents from Essex.
Sedning your own children to public schools is still regarded as the kiss of death to ambitious Labour politicians, the only exception is Sally Keeble, who has prospered as a junior minister. Children at private schools are often mentioned as the reason Chalres Falkener and Trevor Phillips were unable to get selected by CLPs.
Will the Conservatives (Mps, party and supporters) support the new leader. It seems that a sizeable minority will decide to, at best, opt out whoever is chosen - noone seems to be creating any momentum
Re. 17, no, Healey went to Bradford Grammar.
It would not be very good strategically or tactically to “generate momentum” 3 months before any contest takes place, with the leadership rules not yet known.
34 , A . I wasn’t just talking about TBs popularity with Republicans but Americans generally , TB is almost revered in the States , it’s difficult to overplay .
Also I don’t consider Oborne an objective reporter on political events. His hugely partizan and deeply flawed analysis barely rates comment. I’m not sure you appreciate how far the Tories have burnt their bridges in Washington . They are regarded as unreliable and flip floppers. Almost the worst insult the Republicans throw at opponents. No change of Tory leader or weasle words will easily rectify the level of do-do the Tories are in with the Republicans.
35 - “15-20% of Labour MPs are consistently privately educated and 65-75% of Tory MPs” If anything that will probably get worse, seeing as the percentage of children going to private school, is unfortunately, continually increasing.
31.”Going way off topic, but am I alone in thinking that ID cards (and its implementation), is going to be a disaster for the government on a pretty huge scale and will have a great impact on events across the board. ”
Bob Marshall Andrews thinks that ID cards scheme will be the poll tax and the Dome rolled into one.
So considering Marshall Andrews’ previous predictions, it’ll be success.
I certainly echo the comment that Hague has lost his hunger, but he is not the only one. Portillo too - and his comments along the lines of “well, the Tory party may no longer love me, but actually I am not particularly in love with the Tory Party either” do kind of hint at the continuing bitterness inside the Parliamentary party. The previous four leaders- Major, Hague, IDS and Howard have found their biggest battles inside their own party. Todays comments from Howard suggest that if DD tries to go for a tax cut agenda, he too will find some serious opposition. I think that this constant battle will continue to grind down the leadership. As for the US, well they dislike losers, if the Tories ever look like winners (yes, unlikely, I know) then the smoke signals will clearly change.
The Labour animus against private education for MPs children is, I think, fairly recent, dating from the late 1950s. Before that, regardless of their political position, most Labour politicans who could afford it or who came from a middle or upper-class background sent their children to fee-paying schools, although the more radical preferred progressive ones like Bedales rather than Eton or Harrow. Callaghan educated his children privately (which was rather embarssing for Lady Jay when she was in the Cabinet), as did some members of the Labour right in the 1960s and 1970s, (Roy Jenkins, as you would expect).
Probably the change marched in step with the increasing promotion of comprehensive education.
39. Nonsense. Think back to late 200/early 2001, hard to remember Blair was regarded with real suspicion REpublican Circeles because of his faned friendship with Clinton and his famed defence of him at the “Lewinsky” Press Conference, Power and Politics have a funny way of making people mould or change their opinions. With a little tact and the support of the Foreign Office the new Tory PM whenever would be sharing toothpaste with the new3 US Pres in no time. You pick up my point on Blair’s popularity once he’s gone any Tory opposition to Labour will barely cause a ripple across the Pond.
As for Oborne does he have faults? Sure. but your indictment is far too sweeping. About 99% of Fleet Street is far worsea than him.
I’d be interested in the figures on how many LDs went to private school…
44 , A . The point here is that the Republicans attitude now is not shaped by pre-conceived perception of left and right , but by hard experience. The Tories are regarded as letting narrow party advantage outweigh the bigger post 9/11 picture, and this cannot be overestimated. In contrast TB sided with the States in spite of all the risks and has stuck with it. The Republicans will not forget or forgive the Tories easily , something that Lady T has pointed out to MH several times privately.
As for Oborne , well, we’ll have to agree to disagree .
The most strange story I read about Labour MPs and the education of their children is when Jeremy Corbyn’s wife sent their son to a selective school. Corbyn couldn’t acceot this and he asked for the divorce. They divorced, but they still live together!
Andrea - at least that was Corbyn’s story.
I’m sure if you’re cynical, you could imagine a different story …
48. My impression is that he agreed with her (that’s why they’re still together), but he wanted to show disagreement only to keep his image of a very leftwinged “man of principles”.
But maybe he really disagreed and the story is real, he’s a very particular “character” afterall.
46. Not forgive MH personally perhaps but IDS, Hague and a number of others continueda to have good links, Even at the height of the Spat Liam Fox was able to get insights from Karl Rove on Republicasn Election tactics, Stratgey and Computer Software, i think you mistake Epublican distaste for Howard for distaste for the Party. The Republicans are well aware that as far as each party’s rank and file is concerenened both Leaders in an opposite way are the aberration. The new Tory Leader will be judged on his words and actions not those of his predecessor, just as Blair’s actions washed awat memories of his links to Clintona.
50. If the tories will select Alan Duncan (ok, I know it’s unlikely) maybe the US republicans won’t like it so much.
Duncan supported Kerry against Bush.
Of the people at the top of the party now, Osborne’s apparently the most supportive of Bush’s foreign policy.
Re [47][48][49] - I think (but I’m open to correction) Jeremy Corbyn went to Shrewsbury School, which also gave us Richard Ingrams and other Private Eye characters… grammar school boy meself (maybe that’s why he didn’t like me :))
That does ring a bell. Did Heseltine not go there too?
Re: Percentage of lib dems going to public school, I think (I can’t remember very well and I haven’t got the stats to hand) that for most of the post war period the Lib Dems % varies wildly due to the small number of MPs they had and individuals having a disproportionate effect.
It was 100% for a while but since the mid 80s had settled down into 30-40% range.
Making allowances for the small sample size, I think Liberal MPs have tended to be closer to the Tories in socio-economic composition historically. It will be interesting to see if GMW public-sector worker candidates, who are an importent element of the PLP, also start to emerge as LD candidates.
56 GMW?
Corbyn was educated at Adams’ Grammar School, which is also in Salop, but in Newport. It’s now a state boarding/day school, though I’m not sure if it were one when he went there.
Sorry A - Guardian Man and Woman (left-leaning, middle class voters, especially exercised over Iraq).
My impression of the Lib Dem Mps is that they are somewhere between the two. There is a large group of Lib Dem MPs who are born and bread in the areas they represent and went to the local school. The sort of school they went to seems to depend on the area they represent. For example Martin Horwood went to Cheltenham College (fee paying) and Bob Russell went to St Helena Secondary Modern.
I don’t have time to do the full analysis, but their CVs can be found here…
http://www.libdems.org.uk/party/people/mps.html
It’s also sometimes difficult to work out what are private and what are state schools.
Interestingly the grandest Lib Dem of them all - Ming Campbell went to Hillhead High School in Glasgow. Admittedly quite a grand school, but is a state comprehensive (don’t know what its staus was when he was there however).
Who are the MPs with lowest level of education?
61 - you would be surprised how many of them went to Oxford
Surely Viscount Thurso must be the grandest of them all? (Etonian, naturally).
I see that MH in a speech to be given at the Centre fo Policy Studies will say that the Tories need to “widen their appeal” as they have made “virtually no progress at all” in terms of share of the vote. Tax cuts should also not be seen as the “silver bullet” for the Tories and that the theory that it’s just a matter of “one more heave” is mistaken.
MH also takes full responsibility for recent failures of the party and hopes that the coming months will allow for a robust and radical reveiw of policies.
Source : BBC . Sorry unable to link presently.
Discuss……………
64. why didn’t he try to make this when he was leader.
His campaign didn’t seem to have been thought for “widen their appeal”.
65 , Andrea . There’s nothing like a heavy election defeat and impending departure as party leader to induce a heavy dose of reality.
Re 63. Oooops how could I forget about John Thurso! and Eton isn’t exactly the local school for Wick either.
He’s clearly the exception that proves the rule!
Don’t miss this tomorrow:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/4123410.stm
Sadly I don’t get BBC 2. Hopefully BBC World will air it in the future….
The Liberals, like the Tories, still relied on the contribution of the “governing classes” until the 1960s (the Bonham Carters keeping the party alive in the 1950s, and both Grimond and Thorpe being products of Eton and Oxford) but, apart from John Thurso, that’s largely gone now, I agree.
64 i believe he felt by the time he became Leader less than 18 months, they were already in the run in periuod and there was too little time. THerefore they had no choice but to try and GOTV the vote in targeted seats rather than appeal across the Board.
63 , Observer. Michael Ancram AKA The Marquis of Lothian et al , that most noble of Tory Grandees was educated at Ampleforth. BTW what about the Lib Dem MP for Aberdeen West and Kincardine - Sir Robert Smith Bt. ?
68 , Andrea . Yuk .
70 , A . You may be right but it was still a lousy stategy.
As has been mentioned on these boards before, there is no easy way to broaden the appeal of the Conservatives. If you start off with modernising policies designed to win over those voters in the Lab-LD bloc, you get grumblings and rebellions from the right and from the Tory press, and you risk losing key voters to UKIP or even BNP. Take a resolutely populist approch, with firmer policies on Europe, immigration and tax, and you cement the Lab-LD bloc and are likely to continue to keep leaking AB votes.
The easiest way out of rhe bind would be to elect Clarke: but the potential implications for party unity are horrendous, and his popularity levels might fall when people realise that Clarke is still a Conservative after all.
Sir Robert Smith was at Merchant Taylors’ surprisingly, Jack - fee-paying, but weird for a baronet with Scottish estates.
No one is worse than Oborne. He makes no pretense at objectivity and his biography of Alastair Campbell was probably the worst biography I’ve ever read.
David at 29. I don’t believe that private school alone should preclude you from a career in politics. I myself went to a major one. But having spent five years at such an institution it was difficult not to pick up on the fact that one is buying into the sort of privilege that makes so much of this country seem like an anacronism.
Sharing dormitories with pupils who will one day inherit whole counties begs certain questions. Having hellicopters pick up parents who have arrived in their private Learjet’s at sportsday does give you a certain James Bond sensation. And anyone who believes this is OK has to be able to explain to those who have parents who are not in the top 1% of earners why they too can’t also go to such schools. Or perhaps “My Daddy’s richer than yours” is enough?
Re: 72 I don’t think it is al that hard, just hard to get themselves to do. After all it was hard to work out what the Labour party needed to do in the 80s just hard to achieve it. I’d say the democrats are in a similar bind today.
The tories need: self-confidence, an appearance of competence (how many shadow chancellor’s has GB wiped the floor with, and there’s a new one in December), an appearance of unity, to steal most of the government’s policies while still articulating a well thought out and repeated critique (what blair did) - I would pick efficiency in the public services, to crush the lib dems (at least made a start here).
75: There is a difference, I believe, because, unlike Labour, the policies aren’t much of a problem. Many of the Tories’ policy proposals are of the same technocratic stamp as the governments and many of those that aren’t are, in theory, popular policies with wide support among sections of the electorate and in the political media. What matters is that the Tories are simply not seen as effective or trusted deliverers of these policies. They simply don’t look credible. What was really needed was for Howard to stay on for a couple of years, hounding and harrassing Blair, and for a new-generation Cameron and Osborne to come to the fore, take the leader, and generate the positive impetus needed to win an election, demoting the old guard along the way.
Re. 74, isn’t it the top 7% of earners (when 7% of the school-age population go to private schools)? To answer your question, the last Labour government’s spiteful abolition of direct grant schools (which took half of their pupils from less well-off backgrounds) didn’t help…
I’m a state school-educated member of the Labour Party, but I get very angry when the likes of Hattersley et al rail against private education, given that so many parents feel compelled to go private after the damage done to state education by the starry-eyed egalitarian ‘one size fits all’ ideas of Hattersley et al. The comprehensives that do work do so exactly through using the ‘divisive’ grammar school methods (setting, competitive sports) which Hattersley et al so despise.
When I wouldn’t have passed the 11-plus on account of my poor maths, I wouldn’t argue for a return to it, but there is a lot to be said for the German system, which recognises that not all pupils are academic, and provides a decent vocational alternative, instead of fobbing them off with tokenism in the form of ‘Records of Achievement’ and trying to kid them that GCSEs D-G are valued by employers. There’s also a lot to be said for the schools Sir Peter Lampl is setting up, which take a large number of pupils from less well-off backgrounds if they pass a SAT.
The left of the Labour Party’s hatred of excellence and difference in education is even more left-wing than the attitudes of the rulers of East Germany and the Soviet Union - while all education was run by the state, they had no compunction in fast-tracking the brighest pupils (and East Germany took competitive sports to something of an extreme).
The problem is, of course, that the government pays obeisance to the ‘all must have prizes, let’s pretend everyone can be academic’ totems of the Labour left, through its ludicrous insistence on expanding higher education to 50% of 18-30 olds, never mind that many undergraduates are already being given ‘remedial’ assistance because they can’t write essays, read properly (synthetic phonics - which the educational left so despises because it works through two things which are anathema to it, discipline and structure) might have helped in primary school) or add up. The government bemoans the anti-learning culture, while polluting the seats of learning with such a culture through (as I saw myself at university some ten years ago) dragging in workshy morons, who do nothing but make a nuisance of themselves (which they’re forced to attend through attendance registers) but are waved through the marking boards because to get rid of them would be to lose money. They don’t want to learn anything, and scorn those who do.
The trendy wendies are fond of noting that most of the prison population is illiterate - so let’s have synthetic phonics in prisons! (or better still, in primary school, before the frustration and low self-esteem at the inability to read leads them off the straight and narrow).
Top marks for that rant, Richard
77 , Richard . And you’re still in the Labour party !?!?!
74 Roger that maybe true of a tiny minority, eg Eton, but the vast Majority of Private Schools are attended by Midd Class Kids, Bank Managers Children, Midd of the Road Businessmen’s Kids and so on who make huge financial sacrifices to give their Kids the best start in life they can, because presumably they love them and want the best for them. Life maybe a little more complicated than the Caricature you paint.
AS for Oborne not a surpise you loathe him Roger given he loathes the Labour Party with equal force, but if you were making a pretence of impartial JUdgement you would admit Polly Toynbee represented the opposite side of the Coin what did he calle Nic Robinson this week a Blue Rottweiler? When Ali Campbell tried to question Nick’s impartiality he was jeered down by the rest of the press pack and forced to apologise, showing the high regard he is held in by most of his peers except of Course Polly Toynbee.
Part of the Tories problem is that there is a vast number of people for whom voting Conservative just isn’t an option. Back in April I was discussing the upcoming election with a friend of mine, whose priorities were 1) lower public spending and the abolition of IR35, 2) Getting Labour out of office, 3) hostility to Europe. So he decided to vote Lib Dem (in a Lab/Con marginal). It’s not even as if he particularly hates the Tories, it’s just the anyone-but-the-Tories culture is so deeply engrained that he would no more consider voting Tory than he would consider supporting Manchester United.
Whether right-wing non-Tories such as him make up the 10-11% of the voting population that the Conservatives need to win back power is something I don’t know. But there’s certainly a lot of them.
81 , John . You anacdotal evidence is reinforced by the poll that showed recently that when asked which party voters would consider voting for the figures ran :
Lab……58%
LibDem…53%
Con……42%
77. Best thing I’ve read on here since the “good old days”! You should jump ship before the next election…
77, 83 - despite some of Mark Oaten’s unfortunate pronouncements, education in prison is something the Lib Dems have stressed.
I fully agree, Richard, particularly on the need for a meaningful vocational alternative. I think with university numbers the problem is less with the idea of sending 50% there at all, than with sending 50% when they are 18 and 19 (too young in many cases to realise how much higher education will benefit them if they put something into it). We should be much more sanguine about people leaving school relatively early and working for a few years to sharpen their appetite for more education to get them on in life.
Re. 79, yes, I’m a right-wing maverick in the mould of Frank Field and Kate Hoey. In my local branch, the only hostility to diversity in education I’ve encountered has taken the form of concern about faith schools, given the damage separate schools for children of different faiths has done in Northern Ireland.
Re. 80, I agree entirely. I know a woman at a training agency (far from a plutocrat) who sent her daughter to private school after the absolutely horrendous bullying she suffered in a state school because of a kidney problem she had. There have also been parents of kids with Asperger’s Syndrome (and other forms of autism) who’ve sent them to private school (or, indeed, started their own school) after bullying problems in the state sector. What’s more, a lot of private schools are non profit-making.
77.”I’m a state school-educated member of the Labour Party, but I get very angry when the likes of Hattersley et al rail against private education”
Why don’t give more money to state schools to improve?
82 - that would give us a clue as to how effective the parties were at achieving their full potential vote:
Lab 37/58 … 64%
Con 33/42 … 79%
Lib 22/53 … 42%
Time for a new Lib Dem leader???
should have been
Lab 36/58 … 62%
Time for a system where votes aren’t wasted?
How are you going to stop people voting Lib Dem though, BV?
That did raise a smile, I must admit. Touché!
On a more serious note, the “how would you vote if the LDs could win in your area” polls aren’t very scientific, but there is still a big perception hurdle in our way.
90. To see them ruling. But it could be risky: maybe people will really like them!
87 , Andy . I think the figures more accurately indicate the centre-left majority at GEs recently and also how very hard the Tories have to work to stand still.
I think that CK has gone as far as he can and the 62 seats gathered was a disappointment to them , but like the Tories who do the LibDems choose and what direction do they go ? Of course with his recent unoppossed election CK will be in place until 2009 unless Tabman launches a coup , and with his Phil Mitchell looks…..well.. no bovva bruv………..
61 & 62: Q “Who are the MPs with the worst level of education?” A “You would be surprised how many of them went to Oxford.” Well, we didn’t think much of Oxford when I was at university, but I wouldn’t have put it as low as that. Andrea, can you follow this exceedingly English discussion of education? (Scots, Welsh and Irish often wonder what it’s about). I think that the insane attitude of assuming someone’s value because he (it’s usually a male) attended a certain school or university (without knowing what he did there) has largely disappeared, but it may still be powerful in some places — among the Tories? Unlike Roger, I never noticed a lot of money-flashing at school; but I ought to say that, of all the public schools I visited, the only one which seemed to be happy, healthy and friendly to all was Eton. It was, however, many years ago.
62 was TFIC of course, I didn’t mean it any more seriously than I would in damning someone for their support of Birmingham City.
Someone from our (state grammar) school won a scholarship to Eton for the sixth form. He seemed to come out of it more normal than he went in, if anything.
94-”Andrea, can you follow this exceedingly English discussion of education? ”
A bit difficult. I’ve made a brief search about British Education System last month because I needed it for a university paper. Before last month I didn’t even know the various levels of UK education system.
I asked about MPs the lowest of education, because here we have some leading political figure without a university degree. We even have a MP who made only the “elementary school” (he stopped study when he was 11).
95. TFIC??
That bastion of the left Tony Benn sent his children to private school until he entered the cabinet, when he sent them to Holland Park comprehensive (one of the best in the country). On the subject of private education, most kids who are privately educated (like myself) come from middle class families in which increasingly both parents go out to work.
On the subject of private education what irritates me are the hypocrites accross the parties. I get annoyed by those MP’s who were privately educated (such as some MSP’s in Scotland) who then try to end these schools charitable status, with the effect of forcing out the kids who would otherwise get bursaries and scholarships to attend these schools. But then on the other side I get irritated with the Tory left and modernisers, most of whom are privately educated such as Cameron who would deny choice to parents who cannot afford private schools. Every parent should have a choice of schools, not just those with money. This is why I favour abolishing the surplus places rule and introducing a voucher system.
Jack W - 93 - “centre-left majority at GEs recently” - can’t understand that statement - are you saying New Labour is left of centre,this party that is introducing ID cards etc.
95 - MPs with undistinguished educations - I don’t have a comprehensive list, but amongst those without degrees are Ronnie Campbell (Lab, Blyth Valley) (undistinguished education at a secondary modern), and Peter Kilfoyle (Lab, Liverpool Walton) (a year at Durham university before packing it in to go to work. I’m sure there are many others.
When more coal was mined in Britain, quite a fair chunk of the labour party would be miners or ex-miners (such as Ronnie Campbell) and who made their way into politics via the unions, so wouldn’t necessarily be expected to have a degree, especially a generation agao when degrees were relatively uncommon.
97 - sorry: Tongue Firmly In Cheek.
98 - is Holland Park the one where Sir Rhodes Boyson was head?
93 - Hello Jack , Welcome back after your short trip . Think at least Mr Tabman is convinced you and I are not alter egos .
I still think CK could well retire in the next 2/3 years . Another child or two or triplets and the appeal of family life may well draw him away from London politics perhaps to the Scottish Parliament . As I have said before , I think there is abundant talent in the Lib Dems to replace him and a bold move some may consider a gamble to go for youth and a female leader could bring great rewards .
Re. 86, more money often helps (I well remember having to share textbooks when I went to high school under the last Conservative government, and of course the smaller class sizes are a major reason parents send their kids to private school). On the other hand, so do good discipline and traditional methods (none of this nonsense about not correcting spelling mistakes, or banning competitive sports).
Re. 84, not for the first time we’re in agreement, book value. In my experience of university, the mature students were far more interested in learning, and made better students, than most of my own age group. It is, sadly, this group which has been (most) put off higher education by tuition fees and top-up fees.
Re. 102, no, that was Highbury Grove in Islington.
99 , Vino . Yes NuLab is centre-left but with a nasty authoritarian streak - detention without trial , trial without juries , ID cards etc……..
103 , Mark . Poor old Tabman , he’s going through the pack to try and unmask me . Presently I’m David Owen , tomorrow I’ll be Ian Paisley………God Save Our Gracious Queen , Long Live Our Noble Queen………..
As for CK , he’ll stay till after the 2009 election me thinks , and then go……..anyway I’m off to a reunion with Rosie Barnes !?!?!
100. Interesting - a lot of fuss is made if, say, women or ethnic minorities are under-represented in Parliament, but no-one objects if non-graduates (or council house tenants for that matter) are under-represented.
27 (Observer) - you are right to emphasise David Willets’ ‘creativity’. As i recall it this ‘creativity’ about the truth in relation to Sleaze merchant Neil Hamilton led his own party colleagues on a select committee to ‘dish’ him and he had to resign over the issue from being (?paymaster general?) His ‘two brains’ tag presumably allows him to hold both a true and a false version of events and choose which to give out. Aha! a Tory Blairite?
33 (Observer), of course Hague made a mistake in standing, but it was an ‘intelligent’ mistake. He realised well in advance of the crunch how useless Howard would be as a leader and also that the majority of the supporters for a ‘Howard/Hague ticket’ within the tories at that time were for himself. Perhaps he only expected to come second that time, gaining a power base for being Chancellor? He suffered really for being against Blair in the House before Blair’s flagrant disrespect for reality became widely enough known. Hague can pull Blair to pieces brilliantly these days but unfortunately this is confined to expensive lecture tours.
As for 84(Book Value), of course the Lib dems favour education in prison. After all look what it has done for Archer and Aitkin. perhaps if the rrst of the Tory MPs were banged up for a couple of years they would all get a little more educated and we could then shut down Parliament for weeks on end and let all those MPs go back to the farms in their constituencies and their legal practices and other nice little earners and they wouldn’t be such nuisances any more?
Zebidee @ 108: You seem to imply that Hague really wanted to be deputy to Howard: if so, he behaved very strangely; if not, what do you mean?
Alan J @ 107: Isn’t the point that you can’t change how you were born (dark-skinned/albino, female/homosexual(?), deformed/very tall, etc.), but you can remedy perceived defects in your knowledge/’persona’? John Reid put himself through university, and I’m sure there are many like him; Nick Palmer (I’ve read) managed to make good from the disability of a cleft palate. Long may he be with us! By the way, one reason why I admire Anne Widdecombe (who has other fine qualities: honesty and clarity, for a start) is that she faces bravely being constantly held up to ridicule for her *appearance*; why is it that women are made to suffer for this? If you don’t believe me, look at the comments on the ‘party’ thread about “even a couple of attractive women” (I quote from memory). Were there any others? How will they feel? What would a man think if his description (not for identification purposes) were ‘fat and bald’? (Could this explain why I wasn’t at the party? Aargh!)
To an extent, yes, but not entirely - Robin Cook, say, isn’t trated particularly kindly on those grounds.
Andrea why is Veltroni not a Candidate for the Center Left? If Prodi is the Candidate i will bet ON Berlusconi, Prodi will be eaten alive by him in a Campaign he is even morea gaffe prone than Be3rlusconi if that is possiblea?
104.”(I well remember having to share textbooks when I went to high school under the last Conservative government, and of course the smaller class sizes are a major reason parents send their kids to private school). ”
Are textbooks given by the school?
and how many students usually have a class?
111. why do you think Prodi is gaffes prone?
Interesting looking back at the way Hague stabbed Howard in the back. Because Howard was so disliked no-one said much about it at the time but it’s a good illustration of how ambitious and unscrupulous politicians are when they come face to face with the greasy poll. Or maybe it’s just Tory ones?
113. “it’s a good illustration of how ambitious and unscrupulous politicians are when they come face to face with the greasy poll. Or maybe it’s just Tory ones? ”
I think it’s a cross party thing and an international thing.
114 AS i understood he doesn’t make the sort of gaffes like BErlusconi sexist Jokes etc, but he is inclined to bore the socks off the Italian Peoplea. But i’m still trying to get your insight into Veltroni is not running? By the way whatever happened to Signor Rutelli?
By the way Andreas where do you live Italy?
Re. 112, textbooks are either used in the school, or given out for the term/year (with pupils taking them home in bags, at which point parents start to fondly reminisce - cue Hovis music - about how desks were so much better). When I had to share them, it was a case of me taking the book home one night, and the person with whom I shared a desk taking it home the next (and so on).
Class sizes? Off the top of my head, double figures for state schools, single figures for private.
115. Rutelli is busy to fight against Prodi. Prodi wants to make a big list (like it was for the EU elections last year) which includes the 2 main parties of the coaltion (the Democrats of Left and la Margherita) + 2 little parties (maybe it’s better 1 and a half). The Democrats of Left agreed with him, while la Margherita (Prodi’s party, but also Rutelli’s party voted against). So they’re fighting each other. Now they’ve reached a compromise and the list won’t be made.
Veltroni to run needs that the Democrats of Left will withdraw their support for Prodi. It’s risky, no one know the possible reaction of the little parties. It’s hard to find an equilibrium in a coalition made by 9 parties. Veltroni could wait until 2011 (he should have no problems to be reelected mayor of Rome next year).
Now the various parties will start to talk about candidates. It’ll be funny to see how many safe seats Communist Refondation Party will ask (I bet no less than 30 between the 2 chambers). Someone has to be dumped in less safe seats to free some seats for them (and communists at local level are already testing the chances of becoming MPs).
Yesterday and today we’ve had 2 byelections. The turnout was so low that the results couldn’t be considered for any serious analysis.
112, Andrea, perhaps as a teacher I should try to answer that one. At my place books are usually given out, but the little blighters have to pay if they lose them or write all over them - when they return them at the end of the course. Class sizes vary, and are often used as a measure of perceived good educational standards. Typically 20-30 at high school level Years 7-9 (age 11-13 at beginning of year). Then smaller in Years 10-11 when there are some special-isation into option groups for the GCSE exam at 16. I have had between 8 and 19 for History. They usually do about 8 or 9 subjects at that stage. At Years 12-13, age 16-18 (or still known by the old category of Sixth Form)still more special-isation (3 -4 subjects usually) and still smaller classes, up to about 15 usually - unless they decide to go off to college at that stage, and get lost in larger groups.
All this is variable, as I said. Schools differ greatly in size and resources - often dependent on whether they are in the state or private sector.
Hope that is of some use!
Got it! It was the special..isation with the uplifting bit in the middle.
116. near Milan
117. we have to buy textbooks! and we have classes of around 20 students (not so much differences between private and state schools).
When I did A Levels (i.e. age 16-18) we were expected to buy most of the textbooks - though that year, the syllabuses changed quite a bit so much of the school’s stock became somewhat obsolete. It may not have been typical.
robert Waller name of your Book? I can then get my Local Libraey to buy it for me to rent from them.
Andrea if the Center Left come back do you think he’ll have to wait until 2011. They’re so fractious, there will be another Election in short oreder no? I can’t see any center Left Fogure serving a full uniterrupted five years like Berlusconi.
123. He’ll have to wait. he will probably be Rome’s mayor until 2011 and it can’t be both PM and Rome’s mayor.
They’re divided like the Labour party is divided. Between 1996 and 2001 they had a very little majority (at one point only a 6 seats majority in the House of Deputies). Try to image Blair with a 6 seats majority and the government depending from Jeremy Corbyn (our communists aren’t so different from Corbyn’s opinions). Everyone would have problems in a situation like this.
124 Interesting So Berlusoni’s Majority is a Large one no? Why don’t you think Fini has a Chance? His visit to Israel was an intersting piece of positioining by a Leader of the Post Fascist Alleanza Nationale Party and aa former admirer of Il Duce.
123: The Almanac of British Politics, by R.Waller and Byron Criddle, published by Routledge (7th edition 2002) ISBN 0-415-26834-6 softback.
Thanks very much for the interest - and offer!
126 Well the Libraryt will uy it hopefully! Not certain, but then everyone else can bemefit after me and i save £30 which is a lot of money/. Look forward to raising it with you.
Andrea not strictly Politics but hope you can keep us informed on the Parmalat trial which i see is about to kiick off in Milan. Betwen us whatyou reckon Tanzi will get?
125. Berlusconi’s majortiy: over 100 seats at the House od Deputies and around 45-50 seats at the Senate.
Fini is having some problems in his own party at the moment. A faction led by Agricolture Minister (or should I use the word “secretary”?) Alemanno wants him out. Fini’s popularity is still high. In Italy everyone is “post” something: Fini a post-fascist, Prodi a post-christian democrat, Veltroni a post-communist and so on. Now I’ll stop to bore everyone with Italy.
How is Cheadle going? When will nominations of the candidates close?
Sweet little Alan Duncan found some ducks to care of:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4578889.stm
Is this part of his campaign for the leadership strategy? He always find bizarre way
That’s a bit of the strange article, the way it starts “Would-be Tory leader Alan Duncan may be unmarried and have no children”, as if he were still in the closet.
Perhaps this will be contagious. David Davis could fly the EU-sceptic flag by adopting a baby goose which he claims has been saved from the fate of feeding up for French foie gras. However, with an eye to the headlines, Liam Fox would be well advised to stay away from chickens.
15 - talk of a “necessary evil” makes me nervous … “pruning the dead wood”, “cutting out the cancer at the heart of society”, etc etc have all been phrases used by less than savoury regimes to justify their actions.
Regardless of the rights or wrongs of that period, it caused real pain and dislocation in real communities. That contrasts quite starkly with the other end of the social spectrum for whom the 1970s might have seen a barely noticeable dip in the value of their fortunes.
Now, where’s Printz’s dark room?
129/130 , Andrea/book value . I’m unsure whether these ducks are in safe hands , is he caring for them or about to put them in the oven ??
130. and it’s impossible not to know he’s out: he continues to repeat it in these days.
Sometimes journalists write “strange” articles: looks at this article about Mandelson’s resignation, the jounalists first talked about his boyfriend and then felt obliged to specify that Mandy has no wife or children. I think everyone would have already assumed that a man with a boyfriend has no wife or children and there weren’t the need to specify it (it should have beeen worth of a mention in the opposite case).
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2001/01/25/nman325.xml
I have just seen a man with a striking resemblance to Rik (albeit far less svelte) cycle past my window whilst simultaneously puffing on a big fat stogie …
131 - Andrea, there is I believe an expression “beard” which is used of women that accompany gay men as a disguise to mask their sexuality. Presumably children would constitute a “moustache”?
134 - “I have just seen a man with a striking resemblance to Rik (albeit far less svelte) cycle past my window whilst simultaneously puffing on a big fat stogie.”
Are you in France? I can’t complete the scene mentally without a stripey jumper being involved.
134 - I assure you that it wasnt me!! lol
131. If there were “beard”, it would have been worth of a mention, but a gay man without a wife isn’t something so special to feel the need specify he has no wife, especially after talking about his boyfriend (they wear “matching cowboy boots and cycling shorts”! It’s weird)
109, I am not saying that Hague wanted to be Howard’s deputy, i am saying that he realised that Howard would never win an election in a month of Sundays and fancied his chances of getting a good Cabinet place in a Tory Government if he stood himself and came second to someone who might actually have a hope inhell of winning a general election. Then he got a bit carried away. Blame that Alan Duncan maybe?
Re. 119, that’s generally a far more useful answer than my own attempt, Robert, but I disagree with your description of sixth formers going off to college to ‘get lost’ in larger groups. Personally, I found the larger groups of Sixth Form College a useful preparation for university (of course, some people prefer the smaller groups associated with school sixth forms - obviously it’s different strokes for different folks).
I’m aware you’re working furiously on the Eighth edition of the Almanac - do you have any idea when it’s likely to be published (I remember last time it came out just one year after the GE). Next to staying up on election night watching the results come in, poring over the results (and reading Byron Criddle’s amusingly waspish pen portraits of MPs) in the Almanac is, for me (and I’m sure many others) one of the great pleasures of any General Election.
131. On the nail Tabman!
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