politicalbetting.com

Does Cormack’s victory have implications for Cheadle?

The victory by Patrick Cormack in the delayed South Staffordshire election with an increased majority is very much in line with our first call on the contest on May 24th when we urged users to get on SkyBet’s Labour vote share market which was then offering evens at 30% or less.

Fortunately Skybet’s withdrawal from the market at the weekend meant that anybody tempted by my forecast that UKIP would eat into the Tory vote did not lose any money. Thank you SkyBet. UKIP did get into double figures but the party must be very disappointed not to have made greater inroads especially at a time when the EU is very much in the news.

What yesterday’s result underlines is that electors will only come out for Labour to stop the Tories returning to power. When you take that element away, as in the Euro elections last year or in South Staffordshire, then Tony Blair’s party does badly.

The Lib Dems have always struggled in South Staffordshire and they continued to do so in the latest contest. The inability to spend money as though this was a Westminster by-election prevented any real band-wagon effect.

The Cheadle contest on July 14th should be totally different because the limit on expenses will be many times more than was available to the parties in South Staffordshire. The one Cheadle betting market has the Lib Dems as 1/10 favourite.

Against that there’s little doubt that Tory morale will have been boosted enormously by the Cormack victory and this could make the coming by-election closer than the betting odds suggest.

Mike Smithson

Is his “automatic succession” still a near certainty?

Yesterday’s little Commons concession over the operation of Gordon Brown’s tax credit system is a timely reminder of what a dangerous a position the Chancellor of the Exchequer holds.

For although he has had a fairly charmed life until now you cannot assume that things will continue to go well for the politician who gave up his chances of becoming Labour leader at that famous dinner at the Granita restaurant all those years ago. Is Gordon Brown the certainty that the 0.27/1 betting price tag suggests or is there now a case to look for opportunities to bet against him?

Or put it another way does the price of 100/28 represent good value on Brown NOT being the next Labour leader?

We have said many times here that we do not like these very long-term markets where you could be locking up your money for months or even years. An exception could be made here because the main Labour leadership market is on the Betfair betting exchange where you can back and lay and where, if you have predicted trends correctly and prices move in the direction that you forecast, then you can get your stake out. Sadly there is very little liqudity on this market at the moment.

So much of Brown’s future is tied up with the timing of Tony Blair’s departure. When it looked as though he would be out within months, or certainly next year, the price on the Gordon Brown was even tighter - at 1/5. Now we know there will not be a UK referendum on the EU Constitution and the Prime Minister has discovered a new crusade on the reform of EU finances an early change looks much less likely.

And the longer that Gordon Brown has to wait the greater the chances of something going wrong.

Will Gordon Brown, when the time to choose does come, still be seen by fellow MPs, Labour’s membership and the trade unions as the overwhelming obvious choice to take the party to a fourth successive General Election victory? There’s enough uncertainty about to make that 100/28 price tag look tempting. The only problem is that there are so few Brown backers about on Betfair that the most you can get on is about £5.

IDENTITY BORROWING There have been one or two cases recently of users posting using the identity of another regular participant. This is not fair on the person who is being impersonated. We operate the forums without the need to register and where, unless you use phrases words or letter combinations in the spam trap, posters self-publish instantly. Can we keep within the sprit of the site?

Mike Smithson

Could the anti-EU party produce a sensational result tomorrow?

There are increasingly bullish comments coming out of the UKIP web discussion forum about how well their campaign is going in the delayed South Staffordshire election which takes place tomorrow. If this long report by a senior party official on UKIP’s website is to be believed then tomorrow’s ballot in South Staffordshire is not the foregone conclusion for Conservatives that it might appear.

In fact the contest is being set up as a make-or-break for UKIP – highly dangerous stuff unless it is based on real activity on the ground. He says “If UKIP do not do well here, then we will never do well anywhere. Fact. He then goes on to conclude: If we don’t do well here, then you have to question if the brand UKIP is ever going to do anything.

In his detailed commentary on the campaign the official claims that the party is winning the poster wars with the ballot itself being presented as a means of voters making it their referendum on the EU, something that has been refused by Blair.

The sitting MP, Patrick Cormack “has been targeted specifically and the good news is he bites every time. Quotes from Hansard over his Europhile leanings have shown him to be the two-faced lying career merchant that he is. The fact that he is a nasty, pompous old-school Tory doesn’t help either…

In his analysis the official notes two key elements 1) It is not a general election. Government is not being chosen, so a protest vote is much more likely. 2) The EU is all anyone is talking about. I have never heard such hostility to the EU from the average Joe. It warmed my heart!

He concludes If we don’t do well here, then you have to question if the brand UKIP is ever going to do anything. The people are very positive and say they will vote UKIP and funnily always come back and say keep the pound (not used in this campaign!). We will see.

This election has taken place without any real coverage from the media and we are having to rely on reports like this one to get a feel for what is happening. If this man is right then “Doing well” for UKIP could mean getting into second place behind the Conservatives. If that happens the party would dominate the Cheadle by-election and provide the backcloth for Tony Blair’s campaign to get EU financial reform.

Only two betting markets remain on the election: Betfairs “winning party” where the Tories are 1/33 and the size of majority where the 1.2/1 on less than 5,000 look a great bet. Skybet have closed their vote share markets.

MY PERSONAL BETTING. I have put as much as the bookmaker would allow me on the Tories getting less than 50% at 5/2; Labour being below 30% at evens and the Lib Dems being more than 15% at 5/6. I think that I will be smiling on Friday.

Mike Smithson.

Best bookie price now 1/2

The chart shows how the best betting price on David Davis for the Tory leadership is continuing to tighten as punters see no alternative to him getting the top job. The best bookie price is 1/2 although you can still get 0.7/1 with Betfair.

This compares with the 5/2 that was available on May 6th - the day that Michael Howard said that he would be standing down by the end of the year. A £100 winning bet placed on that day would have produced a profit of £250. Today’s price means you would only get £50 - or a fifth of what was available seven weeks ago.

With no other candidate having emerged the betting markets, at least, seem to have made up their minds - it is going to be Davis so why not make some money on what appears to be a certainty? It is hard to go against this logic whatever supporters of David Cameron, Ken Clarke or Sir Malcolm Rifkind might say.

Could it be that the Shadow Home Secretary’s succession to the top job will fly in the face of the conventional wisdom about Tory leadership contests that the early favourite never ends up as winner?

The uncertainty over the leadership is certainly hitting the party’s position in the polls - the latest from ICM in the Guardian today giving Labour a 7% lead. The online version of the Guardian’s story fails to mention the Liberal Democrat share - fair enough, they want us to buy the paper!

At this stage after an election poll figures are pretty meaningless and the only interest to anoraks like me will be the post-election mathematics that ICM is now employing to deal with the increasing problems that phone polling has in finding representative samples.

Mike Smithson

Will UKIP eat into the Tory’s vote share?

With just three days to go before the delayed South Staffordshire election it looks as though UKIP might do considerably better than if this election had taken place on May 5th when the rest of the UK was electing a Government. That consideration won’t apply on Thursday and it’s possible that we’ll see a big vote for UKIP which got 28% there in the Euro Elections.

This could mean that there’s great value in betting on the Tory vote share which Skybet was operating until late last night. If the bookmaker puts up the market when it opens this morning then take the 5/2 that was available on the Tories getting below 50%.

In both the 1997 and 2001 General Elections the Tories managed to get just over the 50% mark. But because of the different nature of the ballot on Thursday the shares that Labour and the Tories will get will be nothing like what would have happened if the election had taken place on May 5th.

In the Euro Elections in the South Staffordshire local authority area last June this was how the vote split: CON 8,984: LAB 4,319: LD 2,728: UKIP 7,819: GRN 1,101: BNP 1,989: OTH 977. Although these figures cover more than just the South Staffs seat they do show good performances by UKIP and the Freedom Party. This will, surely, eat into the Tory share.

Labour, meanwhile, will see votes migrate to the Lib Dems and Greens and could also be hit by UKIP.

This view was reinforced by a post on the site last night by David Seary who filed this excellent first hand report “…..impression on the ground is that UKIP doing reasonably well, working hard, seemingly quite well organised. Appear confident of hitting Tories quite a bit. Labour and Lib Dems are fighting each other Labour most of all, Lib Dems also attacking Cons. Impressions are that Labour losing some support to Lib Dems. Labour called Lib Dem candidate 2 seats Crotty, Lib Dems saying the Labour candidate is only a second choice. Hey Ho!!! Lib Dems up to now anyway not adorning lamp posts as much as the others. Some areas had 3 leaflets already from Lib Dems and Tories. UKIP seem to be using the free post well, however their campaign is a one issue and tonight they were claiming big switch of support from the Conservatives - I say they claim because what is “big”….

Assuming Skybet reopens the market bet on the Tories getting less than 50% - even if the price is tighter than the 5/2 of last night. Another good bet to capitalise on a rising share for the minor parties is in Betfair’s Winning Majority market. More votes for UKIP, the Lib Dems, the Greens and the Freedom Party should cut the overall winning majority. The current 1.76/1 on it being less than 5000 is great value.

Mike Smithson

Picture courtesy of http://www.by_elections.blogspot.com/

SkyBet stops taking money on Labour getting less than 30%

Nearly a month ago we urged site users to make money on the postponed South Staffordshire election by betting that Labour would get less than 30% on June 23rd. At the time SkyBet were offering evens on this outcome which we felt was great value for money.

Since then the price has tightened and tightened and reached 4/7 a week ago when Skybet suspended all betting on the party shares in Thursday’s election. They’ve now re-opened the South Staffs markets but are not taking any money at all on Labour getting below 30%. Our view on how Labour will do has not changed.

It’s hard to call the Tory vote but we think that the Lib Dems at 15% or more looks like a good bet even though the price is now 8/13.

The General Election in the seat had to be put back because of the death of the Lib Dem candidate between the closure of nominations and polling day.

Mike Smithson