The Tories: It looks like the battle of the Davids
July 1st, 2005
Davis-red, Cameron-blue, Rifkind-green, Clarke-black, Fox-pink
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Has Cameron established himself as the clear challenger?
If the betting markets have got this right it looks as though the battle for the Tory leadership is now down to a straight fight between David David and David Cameron.
The Shadow Education Secretary has made some progress in the best betting prices following calls by his supporters for the other candidates to throw the towel in and support their man.
Even so the young Etonian at 7/1 has a long way to go before the markets think he can pose a serious challenge to David Davis who has seen his best bookmaker price tighten to 1/2.
Ken Clarke is still third place in the betting but his price has moved to 14/1 only slightly ahead of Sir Malcolm Rifkind and Liam Fox on 16/1.
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The chart plots how sentiment is hardening behind the two Davids and it’s hard to see other candidates now gaining the traction to pose a serious threat to the front runners.
The real question is whether Cameron can now stop Davis.
A lot depends on how the two perform in the coming weeks. Will they try to support the party in the Cheadle by-election or will they keep away? How will they do in the Commons and how will they go down with the party at large? Cameron has come through this period well and might just be in with a chance although Davis does look very strong.
Mike Smithson
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I do now think it will end up being Davis. Last month I was continually expecting the frontrunner’s curse to kick in, and something to happen to derail him, but that seems increasingly unlikely as time moves forward.
Nevertheless, posting this may be tempting fate rather, as I am running the risk of looking back on it as a “Mystic Mogg” moment.
This made me laugh:
One MP told me this week that their bullying continued to antagonise their colleagues. Three questions, he said, could still sink David Davis:
”Do you really want Derek Conway as Chief Whip?
Andrew Mitchell as Party Chairman?
Eric Forth as Leader of the House?”
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/toryleadership/
Actually - would DD not be tempted to promote Forth higher? SLotH (which I hadn’t realised you could abbreviate like that till I just typed it
) is only the position that IDS gave him.
What are you suggesting, Eric Forth as shadow chancellor, foreign secretary, home secretary?!?!
Now, such a choice would not be for a non-Tory to make…
But if he is one of DD’s big mates (and he used to be regarded as promising in the Thatcher years IIRC), you might have thought he was expecting something pretty big. Maybe not one of the big three, but shadowing a big department.
Education?
He was a junior minister at Education wasn’t he?
Ask yourself why Davis’s acolytes don’t want the Party Conferencea turning into a beauty Contest? Is it because they fear it might give Cameron a Chance to shine, after all his friends and allies will still be running the Show. Up to now Davis’s trump card has been he is the overwhelming choice of the Party in the Country, a barnstorming Speech of his life by Cameron to a PrimeTime National Audience with a thunderous round of applause from the Blue Rinse Brigade might shatter that…… or it may not, too early for predictions Book Value keep your powder dry if i were youa.
“Education?” - I doubt it somehow… but it is a problem for DD, his most loyal (not a word in any other circumstances you would use for Messers Conway, Forth and Mitchell) backers will, one presumes, have to be given positions, which I hazard a guess would not be giving positions to the best talents…
Sophia @ 4, that is exactly why we shouldn’t be going with Davis, and Cameron is too inexperienced to choose sensibly. Rifkind, however, has been around the political block so to speak and will make a broad and sensible choice for his shadow cabinet.
Forth’s other government posts were at Employment and DTI. Though the relevance of this to shadow cabinet posts today is probably fairly limited.
But if I’m not careful I’ll put you off DD, Sophia!
Will Alan Duncan be able to find 20 nominations to run? It seems no one is backing him.
Rifkind is not really Forward Not Back.
Alan Duncan cant run now. You have used pink on your graph for Mr Fox (though it looks a fetching mauve on my machine).
Sophia, Rifkind is Back to the Future! I always had a soft spot for Michael J Fox too.
Sophia, Rifkind is Back to the Future! I always had a soft spot for Michael J Fox too.
Sophia, Rifkind is Back to the Future! I always had a soft spot for Michael J Fox too.
12. Now Mr Duncan will take Mr Smithson in front of the European Court of Human Rights, because he didn’t let him use the pink colour. The Greens MEPs have already asked for a special session of the EU Parliament to discuss it. Peter Tatchell is already planning a protest march. Zapatero will ask to throw UK out of the EU for this. If Edwina Currie would still be an MP, she would have immediatly tabled an amendment.
I think David will still win but I am long of Cameron - once it gets down to a three horse race or whatever his price must still come in surely. I will probably lose a stack of money if they pick Clarke or Rifkind but it’ll be worth it
“I think David will still win” - it would be great if you could bet on just whether a David will become leader of the Tory party.
But… but.. The contest hasn’t started yet! Cameron and Davis aren’t even sure they’re running.
18. but they won’t probably offer advantageous odds.
20 - I know.
Book Valu, Sphia any viewx on m Cameron Post at 6?
Then again…Eric Forth is now on the Speaker’s Panel (i.e. he chairs committees), a possible career route towards being Speaker. I’m just finishing a 10-session committee (environment bill) under his chairmanship - he’s pretty good at it!
By the way, an update on the German scene (I know it’s O/T, but we’ll rarely get a thread devoted to it). The left-wing PDS/WASG is continuing to make progress in the polls and is up to a clear third place on 10-11%, though there is some debate about how to identify them in the question since the alliance isn’t yet established in its final form and there are still questions about how constitutional it is (the German constitution has extremely strict rules on how party lists can be set up). It’s thought that many of these are otherwise non-voters, so as a result the centre-right CDU/FDP lead has been shrinking, and it’s now down to around 7%. There is also an attempt by the far-right (to put it mildly) NPD to win seats by winning three constituencies (which unlocks the right to proportional representation). Overall the CDU/FDP remain strong favourites for an overall majority, but I’d guess likely to become less so in the run-up to the election.
Mr Palmer: If the third placed party is going up in the polls because it is picking up non-voters, how does that equate with the lead of the first placed party over the second placed party shrinking????
23. I bet Tony is fervently praying not. What high hopes he had of Schroeder at the start, but i think has felt utterly betrayed by the CAP Stitch upa IN 2002, And is praying for a Angela Victory.
Because their support becomes a smaller part of the greater whole… it’s an alien concept in FPTP land!
24. I think that he meant the lead of CDU/FDP over SPD/Greens/PDS is going down, because PDS/WASG is not growing at the expenses of the SPD.
25. maybe at the end he’ll be disappointed by Merkel too. Doesn’t Baviera (?) get lots of money thanks to the CAP? Stoiber and CSU could want to keep it.
And isn’t Merkel against Turkey in the EU, while Blair is for it?
My prediction is that David Davis will resign in 2009 after loosing the election with 31% of the vote after running a campaign centering on immigration asylum and Gypsies and he will be replaced by 44 year old David Cameron who will resign in 2013 after losing a campain based on single mothers immigration Gypsies and asylum. After being overtaken by the Lib Dems who end with 32% of the vote against their 27% the party decide to go back to core values and appoint 58 year old Liam Fox. He pledges to bring back hanging and the birch, to leave the EEC, and to start repatriating immigrants. He denies he’s in talks with the BNP about a loose alliance……..
29 - And will these be any more accurate than your forecast of a Tory meltdown last time round? And how does it follow that believing in supporting marriage makes you anti-single parents. Does support for single parent constitute a visceral dislike of marriage?
And I’m guessing you cast your vote for the party that produced the anti-semitic posters. As usual you find fault in all things Tory whilst never acknowledging that the Labour party are anything but as pure as the driven snow.
30. The problem is here: the labour, although not 100% pure, appears pure and perfect, while the tories always appear like the opposite.
It’s what I wanted to say (unsuccessfully) in the other thread. The important thing is if they will be able to sell their messages well. They weren’t able in this last campaign.
This thing about families and marriage is not bigoted itself, but if not presented well it could be accused of being bigoted.
Thorty Ignore Roger. All he wants is a reaction not a debatea. Unlike other All Party supporters here whose banter is good natured, his just bile and raw hatred of the Dennis Skinner Variety.
Sorry Thirty One of coursea.
29 -
I suspect you are related to the Honourable Member for Wellinborough (Loony).
“The problem is here: the labour, although not 100% pure, appears pure and perfect” - I really don’t think that is true Andrea.
28. True, but she can hardly be worse than Schroeder for Blair can she? Any improvement for him is better than not at all.
I don’t think the non-admission of Turkey (which wouldn’t happen for years anyway)is likely to break the back of the European Union
30. Well said Max
Other thing I meant to ask is if anyone knows anything about a group called ‘Dissent’. They’re renting out a shop on Leith Walk (where it appears Marlboro are the smoke of choice for the aspiring anti-capitalist) right under my girlfriend’s flat! I’m considering gallantly asking if she would like to stay at mine for the duration of the G8 summit. Fortunately we’ve yet to be bothered by the assorted hippies I’ve seen around town up in Morningside.
35- It seems, in newspapers descriptions, that Labour is pure and perfect if compared to the tories. I find that the tories are sometimes attacked for some things that if made by Labour no one would have said something about. For ex. if a man is chosen instead a woman for a safe seat, the tories are described as sexist (without even taking in consideration that maybe the man was better than the woman). If Labour or the Libdems would chose a man over a woman, very few people will complain about it.
39 - Lol at your definition of gallantry! :-):-)
39- Max, are they these ones?
http://www.dissent.org.uk/
41 - I’m sure I’ve no idea what you mean!
40 - that’s because the only people to kick up a fuss about these things are the left and the leftwing press (who obviously have little interest in attacking left wing parties). For example, if a Tory MP makes an arguably racist joke it will be frontpage news in the Mirror and the Guardian, whereas if a Labour MP makes an unarguably racist joke it might make it into the diary section of the Telegraph.
40 - I would complain if he was a Lib Dem!
45 -
“Miss Joanna Dunn, Miss Joanna Dunn,
Furnish’d and burnish’d by Hartlepool sun,
What strenuous leafletting done after tea,
We in the tennament - you against me!”
Thanks Andrea - They seem harmless enough (but you never know!) although I was called a capitalist pig when I walked past them in a suit! They seem just to sit around doing not very much smoking a lot an drinking tea. Great work if you can get it. Good thing I didn’t show them my Tory membership card though.
And here’s one for Sophia (after Toni Basil):
“Ricky”
(Oh Ricky, you’re so fine you’re so fine you blow my mind, hey Ricky, hey Ricky)
(Oh Ricky, you’re so fine you’re so fine you blow my mind, hey Ricky, hey Ricky)
(Oh Ricky, you’re so fine you’re so fine you blow my mind, hey Ricky)
Hey Ricky! You’ve been around all night and that’s a little long
You think you’ve got the right but I think you’ve got it wrong
Why can’t you say goodnight so you can take me home, Ricky
‘Cause when you say you will, it always means you won’t
You’re givin’ me the chills, baby, please baby don’t
Every night you still leave me all alone, Ricky
Oh Ricky, what a pity you don’t understand
You take me by the heart when you take me by the hand
Oh Ricky, you’re so pretty, can’t you understand
It’s guys like you Ricky
Oh, what you do Ricky, do Ricky
Don’t break my heart, Ricky
Hey Ricky!
Now when you take me by the, who’s ever gonna know
Everytime you move I let a little more show
There’s somethin’ we can use, so don’t say no, Ricky
So come on and give it to me any way you can
Any way you wanna do it, I’ll treat you like a man
Oh please, baby, please, don’t leave me in a jam, Ricky
Oh Ricky, what a pity you don’t understand
You take me by the heart when you take me by the hand
Oh Ricky, you’re so pretty, can’t you understand
It’s guys like you Ricky
Oh, what you do Ricky, do Ricky
Don’t break my heart, Ricky
(Oh Ricky, you’re so fine you’re so fine you blow my mind, hey Ricky, hey Ricky)
(Oh Ricky, you’re so fine you’re so fine you blow my mind, hey Ricky, hey Ricky)
(Oh Ricky, you’re so fine you’re so fine you blow my mind, hey Ricky)
Oh Ricky, what a pity you don’t understand
You take me by the heart when you take me by the hand
Oh Ricky, you’re so pretty, can’t you understand
It’s guys like you Ricky
Oh, what you do Ricky, do Ricky
Don’t break my heart, Ricky
Oh Ricky, what a pity you don’t understand
You take me by the heart when you take me by the hand
Oh Ricky, you’re so pretty, can’t you understand
It’s guys like you Ricky
Oh, what you do Ricky, do Ricky
Don’t break my heart, Ricky
Oh Ricky, what a pity you don’t understand
You take me by the heart when you take me by the hand
Oh Ricky, you’re so pretty, can’t you understand
It’s guys like you Ricky
Oh, what you do Ricky, do Ricky
Don’t break my heart, Ricky
Oh Ricky, what a pity you don’t understand
You take me by the heart when you take me by the hand
Oh Ricky, you’re so pretty, can’t you understand
It’s guys like you Ricky
Oh, what you do Ricky, do Ricky
Don’t break my heart, Ricky {fade}
Tabman you seriously have too much time on your hands
Tabman you seriously have too much time on your hands.
Thanks for that (I’m not sure I what relevance that song has to me though?). I was actually a big fan of that song when I was about 5. Toni Basil was in her early 40s when that was a hit.
49, 50 - 30 seconds on Google, cut/paste and replace. Easy.
51 - don’t be so coy - it’s not unconnected with the PS for S&C
c’mon - it is Friday afternoon, the British economy,curtain department, closed a couple of months ago. It may even have closed the telecoms dept.
Actually Tabman is employed to keep traffic on the wires going to boost his bosses bonuses. He is like this on lots of web sites under various aliases (I thought he was Sophia until I met her)
52 PS?
Oh I see…
SophiaandRik4ever
How do you bring up those funny faces?
How do you bring up those funny faces?
Good question for a Friday, David. I have always wanted to know the answer. Stand by for a Tabman tutorial.
Suggested Ps meant Passionate Soci@list, or Popular Second but the spam trap ate it!!
53 , Icarus . “……Tabman……I thought he was Sophia until I met her”
Yes , but have you ever seem them together . My bet is that he rushes into a telephone kiosk and (t)wirls a change !!
59 - there are various ways, but usually it involves two colons and a middle - viz : lol : (but without the spaces) -
59. To post various faces (happy/unhappy/…), try this link (go at the bottom of the page):
http://www.loganact.com/tips/afaik.html
64 - What fun for a middle aged juvenile attempting a smirk (successfully??)
;-C One last chance and then naff to Andrea’s wretched site!
66. John O, what are you trying to do?
This? ;-C
67- Ok, I have some problems now….
John - the ones that you can use here are (remove spaces):
: )
: (
: D
: P
: cry :
: lol :
: ?
: roll :
: oops :
I forgot ; )
69/70 , Tabman . Is this shorthand for the Lib Dems election campaign !!
Tabbers: You’re a gent
:::::::::::;;0;0))000);); Nope Still can’t do it.
Do we have any more reports from Cheadle?
72 - you see, I can even be nice to Tories on the odd occasion
Do we have any more reports from Cheadle?
Several local council by elections yesterday see ALDC site for results . No major changes , overall , in my opinion results not as good for Conservatives as last week but all parties can take some heart from them .
See http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/07/01/ulibdem.xml&sSheet=/portal/2005/07/01/ixportaltop.html
Just testing
I should like to make it clear that my post had nothing to do with the preceding post, the content of which I find distasteful.
80?
David,p,a,realist. I don’t feel any bile towards the Conservative Party! It’s just that at the moment they’re the only thing in politics that’s funny. I don’t know about you but every time they talk about ‘modernisers’ I can’t resist laughing.
Max @ 30. “Progressive” opinion is generally much more favourable to people like Pol Pot or Mao, who commit genocide but whose hearts are in the right place, than it is to a Conservative MP who makes a racist joke.
78 - Yes Rik , very sad that ill health and family tragedies can make people drink too much . When my wife died a few years ago , I managed to notice in time , that I was drinking rather more than I used to .
83. Oh, yes like Thatcher is very supportive towards a killer like Pinochet.
Pinochet was a brutal thug, but pretty small beer compared to the 20th century’s more “enlightened” left-wing rulers.
86.Is Hitler left winged too?
Not all dictators are left winged.
And I doubt progressive newspapers or leaders show support for Mao or Stalin.
Mao and Stalin had plenty of “progressive” support in their time, as Castro does today.
Boris Johnson wrote a good article about this a couple of days ago. Right wing dictators are generally reviled; left wing dicatators are generally excused (at least in their life times). The symbols of the USSR are fashion icons (he mentioned CCCP t-shirts, a chain of bars called Soviet) - yet going round wearing a t-shirt with a swastika on it would probably get you arrested.
But going back to my original point, I think that the Left, more than the Right, is willing to excuse far worse behaviour on the part of its heroes than its opponents (admittedly, everyone makes excuses for their friends, but the Left is a good deal more self-righteous about doing so)
88. Which “progressive” support has Castro now?
I don’t know about UK, but here only the Italian Communists are defending him (and I wouldn’t call them “progressive”). Even Communist Refondation Party comndems him.
And are you sure that the people who wears CCCP t-shirts are “progressive”?
I don’t remember many British leaders of recent times claiming friendship and inviting to tea a mass murderer like Pinochet even if they have killled fewer of their people than Stalin.
Remember Jim Callaghan fawning over IDI Amin? Or The Labour Govt giving Caecescu a Gong from HRH, even though Owen said they were told he was the worst Sort the absolute worst Sort. Is anyone’s hands Clean Roger?
Or how about the Sacking of our man in Tashkent for pointing out dear old nice mr karimov had a penchant for boiling people alive or shooting pro-democracy demonstratrors while they are unarmed and helpless.
Margaret Thatcher was long into retirement when she had tea with Pinochet. She was grateful for his assistance during the Falklands War.
But in answer to your point, I note that Ceaucescu was given an honorary knighthood when he paid a state visit to the UK in 1978.
And Castro has been treated as an honoured guest at more than one EU function. I would imagine that the bulk of the European Left regard him as a far more decent ruler than George W Bush.
92.” I would imagine that the bulk of the European Left regard him as a far more decent ruler than George W Bush. ”
What do you mean for “European Left”?
The parties who sit in the European United Left group in the EU Parliament? If so, they would probably prefer Castro to Bush, but I wouldn’t call them “progressive”.
If you mean the various socia-list parties in Europe (PS, PSOE, SPD), I don’t think that they would prefer Castro.
And Thatcher said that Pinochet broght democracy to Chile. Would you like to live in a Pinochet style democracy?
Andrea “progressive” doesn’t necessarily actually mean progressive.
I don’t think the democracy actually existed while he was in power.
But he did accept the outcome of the Referendum in 1988, and allowed a democratic government to take his place.
Somehow, I don’t think his predecessor would have done either.
96.
You’re showing the same attitude you criticized in first place.
You’re defending Pinochet and criticizing Allende for what he could have done in an hypothetical situation.
Well, I did describe him as a “brutal thug.” I don’t defend or dispute the crimes he committed during his rule.
I really don’t think Conservatives need to go about defending Pinochet. Just accept the British Government’s actions towards him were what they were and leave it in the past. It was a different era, where dodgy relations were formed in the wider context of the fight against communism. The best contempary comparison with Pinochet would probably be Musharraf. You don’t have to support or defend the guy to defend the British Government’s policy towards him and his country. And try not to define everything around what an 80 year old woman does long after she’s left power. The problem with some sections of the left ’supporting’ Castro is that it has to be an ideological attraction - there are little geopolitical reasons for supporting his regime. Defending Pinochet personally just makes those on the right look like a mirror image of that.
98. your post @96 seems to praise him, because he accepted the referendum results. It’s like you were pointing out the few good thing he did to show he was not so bad. Isn’t the same thing made by the left with left winged dictators?
btw when you talked about European Left preferring Castro to Bush what left did you mean?
I think there is a certain section of the anti-American left who have a sneaking admiration for the way that Castro has managed to resist all US efforts to undermine and remove him. But even they realise they can’t say that totally openly, so they cite his “excellent” record on education or something similar.
101. yes, but it’s the radical left more than the progressive left, but it depends from whay you mean with “progressive left”.
It’s like when people say that at least under Mussolini the trains were on time.
Hmmmm - Pinochet = “evil dictator” - Gerry Adams = “hero peacemaker”! And I am being ironic here!
No I don’t think so Andrea. On balance, I think he was less of an evil than the man he replaced, but that does not, of itself, justify the murder and torture of several thousand people, most of them innocent.
Like Alex, I think the needs of the Cold War made it important to form alliances with some extremely unpleasant people. Pinochet was one, and one could point to plenty of other examples.
WRT the European Left, I don’t mean Tony Blair or Gordon Brown. But, one could do a swift search through the Guardian or New Statesman archives and find a very great deal of sympathy for Fidel Castro, and a very great deal of condemnation for President Bush.
My basic point (admittedly after a few glassed of wine) is that many people on the Left are extremely self-righteous about members of the Conservative party making a few off-colour remarks, yet are not at all prepared to acknowledge that many people on their own side have expressed far nastier opinions - eg. think of the way that Martin Macguiness and Gerry Adams were lionised by the Labour Left in the 80s and 90s.
83 et al . There’s precious little point left and right slagging each other off about “my dictator is better than yours”. The fact is that governments of every hue sup with the devil , only the length of the spoon and the time at the devils table varies .
Quite. That is why i tried to make a distinction between defending the British Government’s policy towards any particular dictator and defending the dictator themself.
104. Allende is usually seen as a martir here, especially on the left (even “progressive” left).
But then if you know how Thatcher is sometimes described here, you won’t be happy. She’s admired by some on the right (but Blair is admired by the right here too).
When Thatcher is mentioned, the mention is usally followed by images of the police “attacking” the miners on strike.
My mother saw a couple of months ago a documentary abour her on History Channel and when I asked her what she think about her, she replied that she was a monster, that she deserved to go in a mine to work for sometimes and when she saw her leaving in tears Downing Street, she exclaimed that she deserved it. But my mother is leftwinged. Is an opinion like this common on the British left too?
Some problems for Charlie. Apparently some Libdems MPs are briefing against him.
http://www.epolitix.com/EN/News/200507/e01cb285-75ce-4b80-8d84-fbbe74411a13.htm
Asti at 24: The explanation is that although I doubt if CDU voters are switching to the PDS in significant numbers, the PDS attracting non-voters reduces the overall lead of the CDU+FDP over the three parties to their left. By contrast, if they merely took social democrat votes, it would have no effect whatever on the balance.
Andrea at 89: What are the Italian Communists? I didn’t know that there was anything beyond the ex-Communist PDS and the Rifondazione?
Andrea at 107: yes, the general view on the British left is that Allende was a martyr (I don’t think I’ve ever met anyone who didn’t think that - don’t you?) and Thatcher largely a destructive force, though most of us concede through gritted teeth that she was right on a few things. I know lifelong Conservatives who also feel she was on balance a disaster for Britain (by making it more selfish and acquistive), though obviously not for the party in her prime. I’ve not seen a recent poll showing the general public’s view - has anyone?
Alex at 99: I was chair of the all-party Cuba group for several years, partly as I think it’s desirable that an alternative model exists to give neoliberalism some competition (the free market requires it, one could say!) and partly because it seems to me that it’s grossly unfair that Cuba is uniquely singled out for blockade. I don’t think I have any illusions about Mr Castro, but the regime is not as unmitigatedly bad as, say, Burma’s or Zimbabwe’s. I quietly resigned as chair in protest over the executions a couple of years ago, but remain an active member and also belong to the Cuba Solidarity Campaign.
Going back to Mike’s article, there’s no necessary reason why the betting markets should be right, especially in a Tory leadership election where much of the campaign can be done in private, that is betweeh Tory MPs.
Mark Senior at 77: yes, some interesting by-election results there. The Hyndburn result is striking - apparently a (not very successful) BNP intervention taking votes entirely from the Tories, though of course they may be cross-currents below the surface. On the whole quite a good batch for Labour, unlike the last week or two.
I’m starting to wonder how much shorter David Davis’ odds have to get before it’s worth betting against him. 1.4?
78: Splendid. Thanks for pointing that out. Does you nearly as much credit as it does the Telegraph for publicising it.
80: Hear, hear.
I’m not sure that you can argue that Cuba’s regime is politically better than Zimbabwe’s Nick. It probably doesn’t kill or torture as many, admittedly, but at least the vestiges of a free press and an independent voice in the legislature still exist in Zim. Cuba doesn’t have any of those.
I certainly find it hard to defend Pinochet’s actions. His repressions were grotesque and entirely unjust, and there hasn’t been the absolute proof of a projected Soviet takeover that you would need to justify such actions. Support for his like demeaned the cause of anti-Communism by reducing us to the moral level of the Eastern Bloc.
The locals were definitely poorer than last week for the Tories. The most serious loss was that to Labour in Hyndurn, reducing the Conservatives to a majority of one on the council - boding ill for next May, especially as the BNP hit them more than Labour. Where the LD vote rose, it hit the Tories more than Labour. The leadership race might well have lost the Tories some momentum, with the LDs coming the closest to a post-election bounce. A possible Conservative worry is that, if their councils start to suffer from an incumbency effect in the next couple of years, a few could slip back to other parties.
Wasn’t Pembury a Lib Dem gain - last time Con 1112, Lib Dem 651, Green 163. This time LD 699, Con 657, UKIP 41, (majority 42!)
116 - Technically No as the Lib Dems won the ward in 2003 but as you point out the Conservatives won it in 2004 easily so the ward is split with 1 Councillor for each party .
109-”What are the Italian Communists? I didn’t know that there was anything beyond the ex-Communist PDS and the Rifondazione?”
The Italian Communists left Rifondazione to try to save Mr Prodi’s government in 1998. They’ve got 2.4% of votes at the last European Elections and they have 10 MPs (8 at the House of Deputies and 2 at the Senate) and 2 MEPs.
109. Look likes if Angela Merkel will become the next German Chancellor, she’ll entertain Germany with her gaffes. Yesterday she thanked Schroeder for his “ability to rule” instead that for his “inability to rule” and she claimed that Germany needs a CDU government with SPD (instead of saying that Gernany need a CDU/FDP government.
Re German polls: I’ve just saw that the CDU lead in going down especially in the East Germany. PDS is gaining a lot there, they’re now headed of SPD and they could catch CDU. I won’t be surprised if PDS will be the most voted party in the old East Germany.
Andrea, presumably if the FDP failed to clear the threshhold there would be a “grand coalition” of the SDP and CDU/CSU rather than anyone trying to govern in partnership with the left…
120. If FDP will fail to clear the threshhold, for the second time in a row CDU won’t win an election already won election.
I have never predicted that there’ll be a government SPD/Greens/PDS. I agree that if CDU/FDP will fail to get a majority, a “grand coalition” is likely: the painful reforms will be done by all the major parties and none of them will suffer electorally.
I’m not even sure if PDS wants to rule with SPD, although they rule together in some lander (like Berlin I think).
If such a danger exists - I´m told - some CDU voters will be told to ensure that FDP get their 5%.
122. FDP shouldn’t have problems to get 5% if the polls are right.
But isn’t a bit difficult to organize a thing like this (CDU voters voting for FDP)? Merkel certainly couldn’t go live on TV urging some CDU voters to help FDP. They could tell CDU party members to do so, but how many members does CDU have?
Is there no chance at all of either the CDU / CSU governing with the Greens, or the CDU / CSU having an overall majority by themselves if the FDP don’t make it?
German friends of mine have told me that people vote tactically to keep parties over the 5% threshold. So if there was any danger of the FDP falling below 5%, a number of politically aware CDU supporters would vote FDP, no doubt encouraged by parts of the German media. It’d be a bit like the Mirror publishing lists of constituencies and telling everyone how to vote tactically against the Tories, as they’ve done for at least the last couple of elections.
124. How many voters need to be moved to have a 0.5% increase in Germany?
While we’re talking about Germany, here’ the last poll (the pollster Emnid):
CDU 44%
SPD 26%
PDS/WASG 11%
Greens 9%
FDP 7%
My last post of the evening (now I’ve to go out to party…).
I should post less: it seems like I’m talking to myself :/)