Ed Balls now favourite to be next Chancellor
July 2nd, 2005
-
Would PM Brown put two fingers up to precedent?
In the days after the General Election we said that putting money on Ed Balls at 4.6/1 to be the next Chancellor was a cost effective way of bettting on Gordon Brown to be the next Labour leader.
Our reasoning was that that only Balls, Brown’s long-serving advisor at the Treasury, could conceivably be Brown’s Chancellor. Only he would have the confidence of his boss and the odds on him becoming Chancellor were substantially better than those of Brown taking over from Tony Blair.
-
This call was savaged by many on the site who argued that it would be impossible for someone with as little parliamentary experience as Balls to be given such a top job so soon. I still think I’m right and other gamblers to do too.
Since that first post-General Election week in an admittedly very light market the move has been to Balls on the Next Chancellor Market and that price tag of 4.6/1 is now 1.8/1.
The move to Balls has been helped by the way he has applied himself as a back-bencher for which he is winning plaudits. It is also being helped by the fact that Tony Blair’s position as Leader looks more secure and there probably won’t be the early stepping aside that many were predicting. And every day that Blair stays Balls gets more parliamentary experience.
You can see Balls being given a ministerial position during 2006 and, of course it would be shocking for an MP with so little “experience” to be promoted so quickly. But NuLab is like that. The old ways don’t apply anymore.
And can anyone envisage Brown not choosing the man who has played such a huge part in his Chancellorship. And the 1.8/1 gives a far better return that the current 0.29/1 on Brown being the next Labour leader.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
What if …. There was a crisis - a scandal or an illness . Wouldn’t it be a good idea to move GB to deputy president , sorry PM as PM in waitng.
This is a bigger risk than Brown not getting the job. Up early to watch the rugby, whats your excuse?!
I don’t think it’ll be Balls… while i think he’ll be Ch.Sec-Tresury before to long, I doubt that Balls would get promoted to Chancellor till after 2009/10 election, where Labour to win that is, instead i would expect somone like Straw or Darling to become the next Chancellor under Brown.
Other figures likely to receive rapid promotion would be the likes of Douglas Alexander, Yvette Cooper and Ed Miliband… it will be interesting to see if those “bright young things” of a more Blairite bent such as Caroline Flint, David Miliband and Liam Byrne get promoted as well or see their carers curtailed somewhat.
God knows what cymrumark’s next moniker will be… the argument against talking (up) Balls is surely that Brown won’t want someone doing to him what he’s done to TB… if Brown becomes PM before the next Election, which I still don’t think is a done deal if TB can help it, I’d think it more likely for him to put in a caretaker (John Reid?) with Balls as Chief Secretary (unless Balls himelf would prefer a spending Department, of course).
Sorry about the italics (and I used to be so good at tags :()
2.”… it will be interesting to see if those “bright young things” of a more Blairite bent ”
Who are the backbenchers (excluding Balls) who could expect to have junior government positions under Brown?
And who could make a comeback with him (maybe Nick Brown)?
3 IA - to be honest, if I were the Lions I’d come right back now, saying I don’t want to be an off the ball punchbag; if I were wanting to be a boxer or wrestler I wouldn’t have taken up rugby. What’s such a shame is that the All Blacks (the odd one of whmo are actually New Zealanders) have some talented players and don’t need to go in for this sort of stuff. Couple that with a referree who seemed single-handedly to be avenging Australia’s WC defeat of 2003 (he made Nelson look positively binocular, so brazen was his bias) and you have to say - what’s the point? I thought after the firdst few minutes we were going to get a contest and SCW picked a decent time. No-one minds losing, but you at least expect to lose a rugby match not a cynical slug-fest. I’m just glad I’ve not splashed out several £k to go over there. NZ was on my list of places to visit but I shan’t bother now.
3. That’s an interesting question - would Brown give as much freedom to his Chancellor as Blair gives to his?
Innocent abroad argues that Brown wouldn’t want someone doing to him what he’s done to Blair. I don’t buy this argument. I agree with what Rik said at the party (or at any rate this is the version of it that I agree with!) Political leaders should in general promote the most able people. Able ministers mean a good premiership. And Brown’s resentment at Blair, inasmuch as we know anything about it at all, seems to come from the fact that Brown had better odds on being Labour leader but was beaten to it; and / or that Blair seems to have at least hinted at some kind of ‘deal’; and simple interpersonal stuff that sometimes happens when you see a lot of someone. You never know about the third one, but there’s no reason for the first two to be repeated between Balls and Brown.
Alan J - I can’t believe Brown would give anyone as much freedom to their chancellor as Blair gives to his. Blair doesn’t get economics, I hear, and so has no choice but to leave it to Brown. Not that he’s anything like as bad as Bush from what we hear.
8.”Political leaders should in general promote the most able people”
It’s what they should do, but I’m not sure that it’s what they always do at the end.
Re. 1, there’s no need - the amendment to Clause 5 (4) of the party constitution passed in 94 means that should the leader become ‘permanently unavailable’ while Labour is in government, the Cabinet, meeting in consultation with the NEC, ’shall select one of its number’.
Re. the reference to the ‘old ways’ not applying, Harold Wilson was made a junior minister as soon as he became an MP, and delivered his maiden speech from the government frontbench.
Take heart Tabman the next Lions Tour will be a Corker, SA in the Sun ultra lw cost of living with Mike Ruddock as Coach and his Welsh Stars fresh from their 2007…….
Ps on BY-elections what happened to that Scottish MP who had a Stroke?! or somthing.
I’ve always understood that, in the event of a Brown premeiership, Darling would almost certainly go to the Treasury. I certainly can’t see Balls going there in this Parliament, although Balls will almost certainly be in the Cabinet by the next GE. Promoting a one-term MP, even with a wealth of experience, to be Chancellor would be fantastically unpopular among the rest of the PLP, from Cabinet rivals downards, and would open him up to very damaging criticism in rough water.
I doubt Brown will be a very good boss for a Chancellor. There are certainly examples where a PM continually seeks to interfere in a Parliament where he has lengthy ministerial experience (Eden and Lloyd is a classic demonstration), and Brown seems the type of man to follow in that path.
10 - “Harold Wilson was made a junior minister as soon as he became an MP, and delivered his maiden speech from the government frontbench”.
Indeed, and there are other examples in the Commons, like Frank Cousins, John Davies or Sir Robert Horne, a Tory in Lloyd George’s Coalition Cabinet, who became Chancellor three years after being first elected in 1918 - both of those ministers weren’t brilliantly successful.
The key thing is that such situations, outside coalitions and other emergency situations, mainly happen when an incoming government needs an input of talent. Labour now has a group of experienced ministers who, whatever else we might think of them, are entitled to believe that they could make good Chancellors. If Brown were to spring this on them, he’d destroy good party management. Even Blair has allowed David Milliband to move slowly up the party ladder.
11. She’s improving. She has regained consciousness.
http://icstirlingshire.icnetwork.co.uk/news/nationalnews/nationalnews/tm_objectid=15591910&method=full&siteid=92391&headline=mp-improving-following-stroke-name_page.html
Rachel Squire’s position will be interesting. She probably won’t be fit for parliamentary duties for the rest of the session, at the very least, but applying for the Chiltern Hundreds, with the implication of a loss of salary and other costs it entails, is the last thing she would probably want to do at the moment. Nor would Labour welcome a bye-election that would be a target for both the LDs and the SNP. Constituents, on the other hand, might grow increasingly restive without a full-time MP.
14. Good to hear she is going to make it. BUt i don’t see how she can go on as an MP. She needs to be concentrating on getting better, with the best will in the world the last thing on her mind will probably be or indeed should be her Constituents. I’ve known people who have had Strokes, and unless they’re very minor as this one wasn’t if she went to a high dependency Unit, they take a very, very Long time usuallly accompanied by exhausting physiotherapy to get back to Normal.
You can bet the Whips will insista she stays no matter how ill she is. During the 70’s MP’s were being vferried for the Vote of Confidence in 1979 in Ambulances in some Casesa.
The sight of ambulances with sick MPs in New Palace Yard being verified by the Whips was also a feature of the last days of the Major government. I wonder if there’s a long-term pairing arrangment for her?
What is her Majority if it’an ulra safe Seat the whips may show mercy and let her retirea.
18.
Labour 47.4%
Libdems 20.2%
SNP 18.9%
Conservative 10.3%
SSP 1.6%
UKIP 1.5%
Majority: 27.3%
A by-election with the Libdems is second place could be risky.
Re. 16, if Callaghan had been more ruthless (or more confident about winning any GE held later in 79) he might have won the confidence vote in March 79 by having Sir Alfred Broughton wheeled through the lobbies on a ventilator.
I also remember John Fraser (Labour MP for Norwood in the 92 parliament) walking through the lobbies with a great metal frame round his head during the VAT on fuel vote second instalment vote in December 94 (having volunteered to do so, as indeed he gracefully made way for Tessa Jowell in the following year’s boundary changes).
11,562 (27.3%), down 9.4% on notional 2001. Pretty safe, but still potentially vulnerable to sustained campaigning.
A bye-election there would be a three-way contest, which could help Labour.
21. but Labour wasn’t helped by having the second and third very close in seats like Cambridge, Bristol West, Leeds North West or to stay in Scotland in Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey.
The Libdems are good in these things.
Scots MP stroke I at 16 - amen to all of that. It would be absurd for anyone to be worrying about work, even an MP, when they’ve just had a stroke. I hope she makes a full recovery and is willing and able to come back to work.
As for the whips’ decisions. If it becomes apparent that she isn’t going to be able to work, a by-election would indeed be risky but if they’re going to have a by-election, this would be the best time to have it. Firstly, they’re very likely to get less popular as time goes on. Secondly, the Lib Dems have got Cheadle on their hands at the moment.
On Balls straight to Chancellor, I agree that it would annoy the rest of the PLP him to come straight in. And there are a lot of skills in terms of standing up to the Commons that are best learnt as a junior minister. Even David Milliband only came in at Minister of State rank, as did that Lord who used to be education advisor at number 10.
Re Rachel Squire’s seat there was a huge swing to the LDs on the notional 2001 result - notional because of the boundary changes. Then the position was Lab 54.5% LD 14.3%. So a 40% margin over the LDs became a 27% one.
What this was based on I don’t know but I would have thought that a by-election would have been very dangerous. Roll-out Fraser Kemp!
23 - The SNP will fight very hard for a central belt target like this one, and their main priority now is to prevent the LDs establishing a permanent lead in the popular vote. Unlike the other English seats (or Inverness, which received an extra infusion of LD territory under the new boundaries), both the LDs and the SNP are potential recepients of an anti-Labour protest vote.
re 13 and the Balls position. During the General Election campaign Balls - then a rookie candidate - was used more as a Labour spokesman than the majority of the cabinet. Everybody knows that he’s different - his relationship with Brown is so close. It was Balls, it is said, who devised the famous tests for whether the UK should join the Euro.
And remember Brown will be at his most powerful in the immediate aftermath of him becoming leader.
26.”the LDs and the SNP are potential recepients of an anti-Labour protest vote. ”
but, except in Na h-Eileanan an Iar, the SNP had some problems to capture the Labour protest vote last month. They should have won Dundee East in a easier way and they should have won Ochil too if the notional results were correct.
25. A quarter of the constituency electorate came in from Dunfermline East, where Gordon Brown’s personal vote probably depressed the LD share (7.6% in 2001).
27 - I’d agree Mike, but he hasn’t got a public persona (his media appearences haven’t been terribly impressive, and the general public would know him from Adam) or being tested under fire in a ministerial post, and it would take more than one Parliament to demonstrate this, despite his brilliant backroom experience.
In any leadership contest, Brown is likely to have to demonstrate that his government is not going to continue the “charmed circle on the sofa” style of policy-making which both he and Blair indulge in. Promoting Balls would fly in the face of this, and make it much more difficult for him to woo potential allies if it leaks out before the contest.
28 - Precisely: I was very surprised by the Dundee East margin myself. If the SNP perform as poorly as that in Holyrood in 2007, they will face severe internal problems surpassing those in the last Parliament. The poor GE gives them the impetus to peform better, and if Dunfermline comes onto the table, it’s a good opportunity to burst the LD bubble north of the border.
25 Fraser Kempa?
24. Yes, but didn’t Paul Daisy stay on in Brent until the end even though he had been Seriously ill for a long time and was sadly apparent to all he wouldn’t recover, likewuse if you were cynical you would say the Lib Dems were happy to keep Carlton on given her personal popularity even though they knew she was very ill. I wouldn’t put it past them to keep her on no matter whatr so long as she is breathing. There really are some ruthless bastards in Politics.
ps Re Cheadle no longer, Salient, they simply could not call a by-election now before Cheadle or even get the bulk of any by-election campaign under the belt before it was over and the LIb Dems were able to about face and march north, which may influence them.
Any word on Cheadlea?
When was that article Andrea quotes Written?
Re. 30, I agree - some of his media performances (especially pre-election) have been very poor. He needs a few years to hone his media performance before he becomes Chancellor. Miliband (David) was a fairly assured performer (despite that ridiculous pudding bowl haircut) before he was made Minister of State. The less said about his brother’s broadcast media performances, the better.
The dangers of premature promotion are shown by David Lammy - some of his ministerial performances on Any Questions, Question Time, and in the House itself, were absolutely excruciating. On the other hand, on the one occasion I’ve seen him in person (at a Progress fringe meeting at last year’s party conference) he was very good.
33. The article dates back to the beginning of June. I didn’t find anything more recent. Maybe Nick Palmer knows something.
On the SNP vs LDs in any potential by-election. When did the SNP last make a gain at a by-election, was it against the last Tory government. I would have thought either LDs or SNP could get the all-important initial momentum. But the Lib Dems have a couple of advantages. Firstly, they’re a national party, so they have activists and money from south of the border. Second, they have a lot more practice at by-elections, and among the big three are so far well ahead. It’s possible that’ll change at Cheadle of course, although my money’s literally on a Lib Dem win even at the silly odds available.
As for Brent, well presumably it’s actually up to the sitting MP (poor thing). However the delay in Brent, at least after he died, surely favoured the Lib Dems? Having said that, even in two simultaneous snap by-elections in Leicester South and Birmingham Hodge Hill the Lib Dems somehow managed to almost win both.
I was up against David Lammy in a hustings in the election. How intimidating? David Lammy, another minister and a Labour MP! David Lammy did well I thought on that occasion.
It won’t be Ed, it could be Darling, but i expect it to be Blunkett - he will run against Gordon. Expect Balls in the Cabinet after the next election. Outside bet would be Alan Johnson. A GB Cabinet would certainly not include Jowell, Hewitt, Hutton, Hain or Reid. I think he’d bring in Miliband (David). I think Hilary Benn is an outside bet for leader after GB, but he needs to come on a bit first. He has the intellect and warmth, but lacks experience and a bit of blood and guts.
P.S. If Gordon had his way Blunkett would be shunted off to the Foreign Office.
Several people are making predictions as certainty. Bally Eric, what’s your evidence on all those people not being in a Brown cabinet?
37. If it’ll be a Brown-Blunkett fight, I expect that no candidate of the left of Brown will run. Even Jeremy Corbyn and the Campaign Group will ask to Polly Toynbee one of her nose peg to vote for Brown.
39. I’d be very surprised if Reid will be in a Brown cabinet. According to newspapers reports he attacked Brown again last week in a Cabinet meeting. And I’ve always thought that Jowell is in the Cabinet only because she’s a loyal blairite (and did’t Blair allegedly admit to regret not to have kept Smith as Culture Secretary?)
I rubbished the idea of Ed Balls being the next Chancellor and I will continue to rubbish it. I don’t care what the ‘informed’ betting markets think.
Been a bit quiet on here today - everyone watching Live 8 Aid and/or down the pub like me ?
Just got back from Pub hic, Live 8 Finished? Robbie Williams for Prime Minister!
Letwin endorsing Cameron in the Telegraph. Quite significant, I’d say.
45-Do you know if the £ 30,000 Mrs Blair recently received for her trip to the USA with your leader was finally donated to charity (after all the negative publicity) or did she just fill her pocklets as per the original plan before all the fuss?
That could certainly have interesting implications, although Letwin carries less weight than he used to. Cameron’s campaign could basically look like a reluanch of Portillo’s 2001 campaign, with some new blood and Clarke backers.
Managed to snatch a few moments in front of the computer again, so greetings once more from Down Under. Nick’s brief posting above caught my eye and ties in nicely with this commentary I’ve just read in the Sunday Times: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2092-1678293,00.html
Looking like Cameron is getting some puff into his sails, which is very heartening as I declared my preference for him some weeks ago on this site. I’ve also read last week in the Telegraph of plans to convert the Party Conference this autumn into a sort of Leadership forum at which all of the candidates will have the chance to set out their stalls before the party membership directly as well as fielding questions, and taking part in live policy debates. Sounds a cracking idea to me and I look forward to participating. It should also give Cameron (and other candidates, should there be any) a chance to challenge Davis’ position as front-runner before the Parliamentary party decide in (as appears likely) November.
All the time I’ve got for now. Regards everyone!
39 - sorry, can’t say! but anyway, nothing is certain in life, even less so in politics.
That will make it a very interesting party conference - well worth attending.
25, 26, et al: Dunfermline is a more mixed seat than the electoral figures might suggest. There are some very middle-class bits in it which the Lib Dems win at local level. The working-class bits are won generally by either Labour or leftish Independents but only rarely by the SNP, who are much less strong here than in neighouring Ochil. Across the seat in local elections the Lib Dems are normally second - and somewhat more comfortably than they are in parliamentary elections. In a by-election I suspect that the Lib Dems would emerge as the main get-out-Labour party.
home improvements…
eliminator rendition discriminating Brookhaven fancies jaunts Bonneville!Lackawanna home equity http://home-equity.emortgagebusiness.com/ …