Can Blair beat Chirac and get the games for London?
July 3rd, 2005
-
Will Singapore see another UK-France stand-off?
Expect a huge amount of betting over the next 72 hours as Tony Blair and Jacques Chirac fly to Singapore where on Wednesday the 115 members of the IOC will decide on which city will get the 2012 Olympic Games.
Although strictly this is not politics the choice will have a huge political impact in the cities and countries of the five contenders - Paris, London, Madrid, New York and Moscow - and it is no surprise that Chircac and Blair will be there in the final hours as the IOC members make up their minds. As well as the Prime Minister the London line-up includes the Princess Royal, Sebastian Coe, and David Beckham.
-
After a period when there was little support in the UK for London’s application there’s little doubt that the mood has turned and Tony Blair would get a big boost if the decision goes his way.
He’s also one of the best know politicians in the world and his endorsement adds enormously to London’s chances.
For a long time now Paris has been the odds-on favourite in the betting and the current best price is 2/9. London is second favourite on 15/4 while a lot of money has been going on Madrid in recent days pushing the price to 25/1. New York is at 33/1 and Moscow at 66/1.
This is a hard election to call and it will be interesting to see how prices fluctuate once everybody arrives in Singapore.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Yes, I was thinking this as well (but also in a different context). By 2012, we will be in the mid term of the 2009/2010 - 2014/2015/2016 Parliament (possibly with a different PM) and the French about to vote in their own general election for their Parliament. Could the Olympics be used as a political weapon in those campaigns and if so, would the losing city reflect badly on that party in government at the time? (i.e Huge Government losses in 2012 locals or a change of government in France?)
“Although strictly this is not politics the choice will have a huge political impact in the cities and countries of the five contenders ”
I wouldn’t read too much politically in the choice of the city to host the OG. I think that there will be more economical effects than political ones.
“He’s also one of the best know politicians in the world and his endorsement adds enormously to London’s chances.”
He isn’t more “famous” than Chirac and probably the voters will know even the other PMs (and Zapatero was probably on the news more than Blair this week).
1. It might be a poisoned chalice to win the 2012 Olympics. Billions of public money being seen to be spent in London could boost the Nationalists in the Scottish and Welsh elections of 2011.
Where Britain to win the Olympics, Where Britain to then pull something substantial or at least meaningful out of the bag at Gleneagles and where Blair to establish a solid coalition in Europe for real economic reform, no doubt with the support of a Chancellor Angela Merkel and, where he to stay longer, a sympathetic President Nicolas Sarkozy… that would be one hell of a legacy IMHO and certainly something that Blair would be happy to bow out on, to me it seems more and more likely that while Blair would perhaps like to out last Chirac and work with a president Sarkozy I think he might well bow out after our presidency of the EU and G8… but we will see I suppose.
I imagine that Blair will be campaigning hard; if only so that he can get another “one up” on Chirac…
I have the feeling that London will win. Not a prediction, I won’t bet anything on this, but just a feeling.
If London does win, any increase the GLA adds to council taxes, especially if it’s bigger than currently expected, could play into the 2008 GLA campaign. I’ve thought for some time that a bet on a Tory Mayor, whether Ken stands or not, would be good value. Any details on odds?
Does anyone know the composition & countries represented on the Olympic committee that makes the final descision?
Normally there is a political element in the voting & hopefully with Blair turning up it will remind committee members of Iraq,(although by now its probably a done deal)cannot see many votes from Europeans if they are represented on the committee.
I sincerely hope that France wins.
With Londoners having to pick up 50% of the cost & knowing that with projects like this, the actual cost will be 5 to 6 times the estimates we are being told now,it will be massively expensive.
As usual there was no consultation with Londoners,just the usual Showmen jumping on the bandwagon & not even bothering to consult the public as it would probably have been an answer they did not want to hear.
re 8
The members are as follows
Country CountOfMember
Switzerland 5
Italy 5
Great Britain 4
Australia 4
Netherlands 4
France 3
Canada 3
United States 3
Sweden 3
Spain 3
South Korea 3
Mexico 3
Russia 3
Germany 3
Norway 2
China 2
Greece 2
Finland 2
Hungary 2
Brazil 2
Belgium 2
Japan 2
Ukraine 2
Senegal 2
Hong Kong 1
Guinea 1
Guatemala 1
Croatia 1
India 1
Indonesia 1
Côte d’Ivoire 1
Argentina 1
Austria 1
Barbados 1
Bulgaria 1
Cameroon 1
Cyprus 1
Colombia 1
Fiji 1
Liechtenstein 1
Cuba 1
Iran 1
Denmark 1
Dominican Republic 1
Egypt 1
Chinese Taipei 1
South Africa 1
Kuwait 1
Poland 1
Portugal 1
Puerto Rico 1
Qatar 1
Saudi Arabia 1
Peru 1
Singapore 1
Panama 1
Syria 1
Thailand 1
Togo 1
Tunisia 1
Uganda 1
Uruguay 1
Serbia and Montenegro 1
Monaco 1
Israel 1
Kenya 1
Algeria 1
Lebanon 1
Zambia 1
Luxembourg 1
Philippines 1
Mauritius 1
Ireland 1
Mongolia 1
Morocco 1
New Zealand 1
Nigeria 1
North Korea 1
Pakistan 1
Malaysia 1
5 - “Vouz voyez, Jacques, it is not only you who can subsidise grossly uneconomic activities as a populist tool!”
10.”“Vouz voyez, Jacques, it is not only you who can subsidise grossly uneconomic activities as a populist tool!” ”
but now Jacques is not more alone in his battle to keep the CAP. He has a precious alley now: Sinn Fein!
If London do win I would stake an enormous amount of money on Seb Coe winning the London mayoralty in 2008. If London don’t then I’d still back Boris
12.”If London do win I would stake an enormous amount of money on Seb Coe winning the London mayoralty in 2008. If London don’t then I’d still back Boris ”
Boris against Ken. Interesting fight. I’ll back Ken to win it (except if Labour will be in a disastrous situation).
Andrea - Ken will have had four years of massive over inflationary public transport charge rises - breaking one of his promises at the last election. He will have presided over the increase in congestion charge which he promised wasn’t going to happen, and London taxpayers will see the GLA precept rise each year well above inflation. Added to the fact that we will be 11 years into a Labour government.
“Do the math”.
14. I’m biased here, I don’t know how someone could vote for Boris as mayor.
Because he has that elusive “cross party appeal”.
I wouldn’t vote for him. As MP, maybe. For mayor? No way!
16,.”Because he has that elusive “cross party appeal”. ”
yes, but it could fall in the “Charles Kennedy category”: everyone (ok, probably not everyone) likes him, but many of them won’t see him as PM.
Life Insurence…
Monty plunges Stalinist caffeine Diocletian!Online Life Insurance [url=http://www.ononlinelifeinsurance.com/#]Online Life Insurance[/url] http://www.ononlinelifeinsurance.com/# …