Is this the man for the Tory party?
July 3rd, 2005
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The sentiment moves to Cameron
After favourable press comment at the weekend and his emergence as the clear challenger to David Davis the money has been piling on David Cameron to be the next Tory leader.
Since Friday the best bookmaker price on the young Etonian has tightened from 7/1 to 5/1 and the signs are that this will move further.
In a flattering piece in the Sunday Times under the heading At last, a fanciable Tory Indira Knight writes that although she has never thought of supporting the Tories before a party led by Cameron might swing it.
She notes… So: the Tories have got their chance to snare the likes of me and of a sizeable majority of my friends. If the party has any sense at all, it will elect Cameron to the leadership and, if the feeling in the air is anything to go by, very possibly pocket a great big slew of votes from people who have never voted Tory before, and never imagined they ever would — unless of course Cameron suddenly outs himself as a believer in the intrinsic evil of all immigrants, or as a weird homophobe. If they’re stupid, which they might well be, the Tories will pass him by on grounds of chippiness, and we’ll continue to have no effective opposition, and we’ll all fall into a deep, coma-like sleep of boredom. Which will it be, I wonder?
In an article in the Sunday Telegraph the senior Tory front-bencher, Oliver Letwin comes out strongly for the Shadow Education Secretary. He notes:-
The phrases which form Cameron’s leitmotif - “We are all in this together”, “a decent society”, “a government which is aware of its own limitations rather than a government which is limited in its aspirations” - are phrases that will stick. They express the instincts that will enable us to win elections and to provide Britain with the government she needs. To judge by my experience of working with David, he is someone who lives the message, someone who actually believes in free markets, a stronger society, a more civilised Britain and a more civilised politics. I hope that he will stand. If he does, despite my admiration for other colleagues, I shall back him.
The current 5/1 on Cameron is a good value bet. Take it while it lasts - I have.
Mike Smithson
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I’m probably missing something, but wasn’t Cameron responsible for the Tory manifesto and the weren’t the tories policies considered right-winged in the last campaign? Why is he seen now as a centrist moderniser?
and I’m starting to feel sorry for Alan Duncan, will someone support him? What the hell was he thinking when he decided to run?
Yes I know it’s early but it has to be to beat Jack W to the caption contest ……. I said the Conservatives would not get back into power till the cows come home .
Said it before ( as a non Conservative ) the best of a poor bunch , age a bit of a gamble , but you never get anywhere in life by not taking a gamble sometimes .
I’ve just watched Gordon Brown being interviwed and the next Conservative leader will be facing a very different opponent from the one they’re facing now. Tony Blair is unique among world leaders in his charisma and articulacy. In many ways we havent seen his like before. Gordon Brown is quite different. Perhaps even an antidote. He will (at best) be seen as intellectually rigorous and solid. The Tories are forever looking for a charismatic character to compete with Blair and frankly no one comes near(Clark is as close as they get). Now they’re facing a different sort of opponent they should look for a different sort of leader. An honest intellectual like Brown who can compete on that level. I would think, though he lacks charisma David Willets is your man. He always sounds intelligent and doesn’t seem to have the narcissism that Davis and Cameron have. Cameron by comparison is just a puffball
3. It depends if voters will want a intellectually solid PM (but with not much personal charisma and maybe a little boring) or a PM full of charisma (but maybe with little substance).
Andrea. You have hit the nail on the head. Cameron was responsible for the manifesto that contributed to the Tories wipe-out but it was a manifesto that was wholeheartedly supported by all of the party. I remember on these boards the only Tory poster who thought their campaign was in any way flawed was Andrew Milne. For all the rest it was spot on. I recommend you read the introduction (six pages)to the research done by Lord Ashcroft into the Tories failure.
As he says “The country weren’t thinking what we were thinking” and this is why Conservatives just don’t get it. What they’re selling the majority of the country just doesn’t want.
Ashcroft again. “Successive dismal and entirely expected election defeats had not muted the Conservatives insistance that published opinion polls were not to be trusted…….”
He commissioned six major pieces of research and as he says “We learned that while other parties’supporters had a similar profile to Britain as a whole, Conservatives did not….Their attitudes to contempory social and cultural issueswere often different to those of other people…..”
There you have it. The aspirations of their supporters are not the aspirations of the majority which suggests to me a long period of reflection.
http://www.lordashcroft.com
Introduction well worth reading (thanks to Icarus on the other thread)
Cameron may have produced the ‘manifesto’ but then the manifesto wasn’t the problem. Cameron has long been on record of saying that the Conservatives need to have more to say about health, education etc and less about issues like immigration. The manifesto didn’t give overt prominence to immigration - it was the campaign (whether you blame Howard/Crosby or the media) that did that.
6- So in Autumn 2004 they thought that they were headed in 103 seats of the most marginal seats. They should fire the pollster or they should fire themself to have thrown away a lead like that one!
They were thinking to gain seats like Halifax (130th in the whole tories target list and around the 100th position of the tory target over Labour).
…and Ashcroft himself is not without blame. I live in Bedford which was Labour’s 111th most marginal seat on May 5th. Yet the Tory candidate was one of the lucky 30 or so who became recipients of Ashcroft’s largesse. I commented here at the time how odd it was that money should be ploughed into what clearly was not a marginal.
Judging by the Bedford Tory candidate one has to question Ashcroft’s political judgement. The guy was local, rich and presentable - his failing was that he did not seem to understand politics.
The Ashcroft-funded campaign would have been fine if the Tory had been running for mayor or, as the Labour incumbent noted, “for sheriff”, but is was completely wrong in a Westminster election.
When I researched what Ashcroft was doing I was expecting that his “chosen” PPCs would be something special. That certainly was not the case here.
I’ll be delighted to lose money if Cameron wins. Hague was considered inexperienced and he’d been in the Cabinet, admittedly as low-ranking Welsh Secretary.
However I agree that the problem was the lack of serious policies about the fundamentals of education, health and the other big issues.
But I’m not sure there’s all that much connection between the betting markets, which after all is made by people like us, and the actual probabilities of particular people being elected. The campaign is going to be largely in private between the MPs, even if they occasionally let the rest of us know what they’re doing by publishing in the papers.
As for matching leaders with the Labour party. I think a party should chose its most talented person for leader. A solid intellectual can win and win - look at Kohl in Germany. But whether the most able Tory happens to be an intellectual type, or a charistmatic type, or whatever else, then that’s the person best able to beat Brown.
… and Nick Palmer points out on another thread that Letwin’s endorsement is significant and will improve Cameron’s chances a little. I still can’t see him winning though.
Cameron is the interesting but risky choice, Davis is the ‘things are going OK, we just need one more heave’ choice. I really have no idea whether Cameron would go down well or be dismissed as a young lightweight, but he’d certainly get public attention as the Tories trying something different.
My guess is that the outcome will be Davis in the leadership with Cameron widely seen as his likely successor if Davis doesn’t win the next election. I don’t think the Tories are quite ready for a decisive change.
9. I thought that one of the Ashcroft’s aims was to create new marginals for the next election, but in this case the decision to target 160 seats is not so different.
Mike, I think your first sentence above should read David “Cameron” at the end.
I don’t think Cameron will be dismissed as a young lightweight as much as a typical ‘Tory boy’.
Another ‘groundhog day’
All is not rosy in the Lib Dem garden: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=354426&in_page_id=1770
16.
From the Daily Mail article:
“growing questions about his health. ”
What health problems does he have?
@ 5 Err Roger, you’ve forgotten to take the tablets again !!
What Conservative “wipeout” ?
16 - Dear Oh Dear Rik , Your anti Lib Dem paranoidcy is showing again . What are the odds that the article is nothing more than a very poor version of a Zinoviev type letter published in a vain hope it will adversely effect Lib Dems in Cheadle .
Roger @ 15
‘Tory boy’.
I think not !
According to the Daily Mail, he has always got problems with his health…he is a drunk…looney policies…morally corrupt…waste of space…far left…soft on everything…
Just about sums up their editoral stance on the Lib Dems.
Of course I may be wrong, but I am sure kennedy, afer so long in the Commons, would know about the declaration of interests procedure, and that it is unlikely he would go against the rules. Kennedy’s office seemed quite happy to clarify the situation and admitted that the holiday and upgrades had taken place etc.
We’ll seehow it progresses.
18 - I agree Roger’s wipeout is an exaggeration . I would rather agree with Lord Ashcroft on this quote ” Total Disaster ” .
19 - MArk dear boy - I didnt write the article! We will have to see how this story develops but I do know that there is a group of Lib Dem MP’s who want to see the back of Kennedy before the next election because they consider that he failed to deliver this time.
18 & 22 - the last election was neither a “wipe out” nor a “total disaster”. More accurately, it was modest but encouraging progress.
BTW if it was a “wipe out” or a “total disaster” for the Tories who gained 33 seats, what was it for the Lib Dems, who gained only 10? - Discuss!
“David Devious”
http://www.sundaymirror.co.uk/news/page.cfm?objectid=15693253&method=full&siteid=106694
23 - “Total Disaster” were not my words but those of the person who poured a fortune into Conservative coffers without which your party would probably not have made 33 gains .
You may be correct that a number of Lib Dem MPs would prefer another leader to CK , but I hardly think that was the reason for the article in the Mail and it is pretty clear what that motif is .
23.”if it was a “wipe out” or a “total disaster” for the Tories who gained 33 seats, what was it for the Lib Dems, who gained only 10? - Discuss!”
Try to calculate the % icrease of seats of the 2 parties.
26 - Putting on a fairly impartial hat on , the GE result was a reasonable result for all the 3 parties , Labour because they won a majority and Con and Lib Dem because they both made progress if not as great as each one hoped for . The next GE will be more influenced by which party looks to the futute rather than dwelling on might have beens at the last GE .
27. Almost every party could be happy and at the same time disappointed by this election. Labour got a majority, but maybe it hoped in a 100 seats majority; the tories gained seats, but they didn’t make any real progress in terms of % votes; the Libdems increased their votes and their seats, but they could have hoped in a bigger increase; the SNP gained seats,but it fell in terms of votes.
PC is the only one that has nothing to be happy about and Respect has nothing to be disappointed about (Galloway won and they have some others second places).
Agree with 27 and 28 (and that rather accords with Rik’s ‘modest but encouraging’ line for the Tories…and doubtless for Labour and LibDems too.
I suspect there may be some truth in the alleged ‘David Devious’ story. “DD of SS” features periodically in the hilarious (and not really challenged) account of the calamitous 1992-97 years by Gyles Brandreth, himself a whip for the last two or so years. This from June 21st 1996 meeting of the whips’ “annual assessments” of Ministers:
“…We all know that DD is unhappy, already difficult, potentially more troublesome, feeling overworked and undervalued, and believes he should be in the Cabinet NOW, NOW, NOW…”
And this was with the ‘light touch’ reserved for former members of the whips’ club… I wonder what they really thought.
I do agree with Alastair Matlock (on another post) that the decison that forthcoming party conference should be an explicit candidates’ forum is excellent. Might even be worth attending
I don’t think there were many of us who thought we were ahead in 103 marginal seats last Autumn. I consistently predicted about 40 or so gains, which I think was the consensus among politically active Conservatives (and non-Conservatives).
The percentage increase in seats for both Conservatives and Lib Dems was similar (a gain of about 20% in each case).
16/24 , Rik & AT . Expecting the Mail or Mirror groups to profer impartial or objective political commentary is like expecting The Daily Telegraph to endorse the SWP at the GE or for Anne Widdecomde to exalt the virtues of devil worship and free love !!
I’m afraid the Mail group still can’t quite believe that the British electorate have three times rejected their advise to elect the Tories , despite al the lies, spite and bile they pour on the government . Very frustrating for Mail , quite wonderful for the rest of us who refuse all their blandishments of prize cottages and ghastly free CDs .
So Charlie Kennedy got an upgrade on his honeymoon ?!?!?! and David Davies is devious……..they’re politicians.
30-”I don’t think there were many of us who thought we were ahead in 103 marginal seats last Autumn. I consistently predicted about 40 or so gains, which I think was the consensus among politically active Conservatives (and non-Conservatives).”
Probably the pollster who made that private poll was under the effect of some drugs.
“The percentage increase in seats for both Conservatives and Lib Dems was similar (a gain of about 20% in each case). ”
When I asked for it, I didn’t want to point out that the Libdems increase was bigger. I was only too lazy to do it myself.
31,”So Charlie Kennedy got an upgrade on his honeymoon ?!?!?! ”
The best part of the Daily Mail’s article is when they felt the need to point out that even Joan Collins went there for her honeymoon.
1 & 5-You seem to forget that Blair,Brown et al in opposition were busy denouncing Thatcher’s & Major’s policies as Right wing,Reactionary et al.
Blair had campaigned in the 1981 Election (Beaconsfield) for the total withdrawl from the E.C.
When they came to power in 1997 which of these outrageous Thatcherite Right wing policies did they change.
-Sale of Council houses?
-Privatisation?
-Top income tax rate of 40%?
-Scrapping exchange controls?
-Trade Union legislation ?
-Britains Nuclear weapons?
-USA Nuclear weapons at UK bases, Cruise missiles etc.?
33 - But Joan Collins had many honeymoons sadly none of them with me - LOL
34 , Mark . Yes , but didn’t you pour a drink over Joan Collins ??
35 - Not guilty there Jack , drink is too precious to pour anywhere except down the throat ( inside ) .
Re Andrea and Sean.
I didn’t know where they got the 103 from either, In the Northwest I could only think of 5 gains in the end we gained one lost one. Personally I was saying 45 seats, i tought they would be all in South east a couple in Southwest, East Midlands, Yorkshire and Humberside, Northern Wales and southern Scotland. Admitably I thought all three southern scot seats and conway would fall
FWIW, Suzanne Moore praises David Cameron in her column in today’s Mail on Sunday.
36 , Mark . Are you sure…………?????????
http://www.trashfiction.co.uk/rossiter_collins.html
39 - It ain’t me Babe - You will have Mr Tabman even more confused thinking we are both alter egos of Leonard Rossiter .
Having just got back from the pub where I read the Mail on Sunday story on CK I came back feeling quite positive. The idea that someone somewhere in the world thinks it is worthwhile doing favours to the leader of the Lib Dems must lift the hearts of party supporters everywhere.
If prospects were really bad nobody would ever think of bribery.
re Roger’s “wipeout comment”. The party that suffered the biggest disaster on May 5th was Labour which lost one in every seven votes.
41 , Mark . So are you Rigsby or Reggie Perrin , btw how is the mother-in-law !?!?
43 , Mike . I think that the Tories or the Lib Dems would have liked to have Labours “biggest disaster” don’t you ?
44 - What - lose one in seven of their voters?
44 - SUNS INE DESE TS , I quite like his rise and fall bit like Michael Howard trying to sell Grot , successful for a time but in the end it fails .
Yes agree , winner takes all , it is seats that count not votes .
46.”Yes agree , winner takes all , it is seats that count not votes .”
yes, but I think that tories and Libdems would have not liked to lose 47 seats. Especially because the libdems would have been reduced with 5 seats.
Btw I’ve just noticed how badly Simon Hughes performed. A 5.9% swing to Labour. It have to be one of the worst Libdems performances against Labour in this election.
47 - Yes quite a large swing away from Simon Hughes , I have no idea of the reason(s) , perhaps someone with more local knowledge can enlighten us .
You will have to excuse Jack W and myself talking about Reggie Perrin , I would guess Italian TV never had the benefit of such a good comedy program .
Those of you of a nervous disposition or if you’ve just enjoyed a spot of tiffin…. you should look away now !
OK I’ve got your undivided attention. Now fellow posters what to your hearts desire is the esssential missing from your bathroom ?
If you are Mark Senior then Joan Collins a deu in the tub with a bottle of Cinzano is the dream .
For Tabman it would be sitting in the tin bath with the ghost of Gladstone thundering the great orations of the Midlothian campaign.
Dear book value’s dream is shaving to David Steel’s “… return to your constituencies and prepare for government ….”
For Rik……..well back stratching with Mrs.T…………
For us mere mortals and especially Andrea, we may only aspire to the £10,000 bar of soap ?!?! ……..Yes £10,000 …….made from Silvio Berlusconi’s fat acquired from a liposuction clinic !!!!!!!!
To save the sensibilities of you all I shall refrain from discussing the price list for our own more corpulent parliamentarians …. I shall just leave you with a few names :
Nicholas Soames , Anne Widdecombe , John Prescott , Gywneth Dunwoody …………
Source : The Observer through Ananova .
47/48 , Andrea & Mark . If you’ve recovered from my 49 , IIRC Simon Hughes put his poor performance at the GE to the unpopularity of the local Lib Dem local council.
50.” Simon Hughes put his poor performance at the GE to the unpopularity of the local Lib Dem local council”
He has to explain why the unpopularity of the local council didn’t stop the Libdems to increase their % of vote in Camberwell and Peckham.
After the big swing for him last time, I didn’t expect him to have another big increase, but I expected him to keep more or less his majority. More or less like what happened in Chseterfield. Especially since Labour did pretty bad in London.
48.”You will have to excuse Jack W and myself talking about Reggie Perrin , I would guess Italian TV never had the benefit of such a good comedy program ”
No, sadly. We haven’t made much progress since “George e Mildred” regarding British TV comedy series. Maybe it’s on cable (lots of British things are aired on cable TV now)
Reply: 47
The large swing against Hughes in Bermondsey can be put down to two main factors…
1.)The large swing to him in 2001 was largely thanks to Labour nominating a Black candidate in a notoriously racist area.
2.)The Labour Candidate, Kirsty McNeill, who succeeded in united the notoriously factious Bermondsey and Southwark Labour Party and fought a strong concerted campaign.
And to think, when I said before the election that Hughes’ majority would go down some Posters “laughed me out of court”… it nice when one of your predictions is borne out by events
.
Back to the Tory leadership…
Its beginning to look as though the other candidates in the race for the leadership might as well just pack up their bags and form an orderly circle in the playground round Cameron and Davis.
Cameron has had a very good week or so and is consolidating his position as the only credible challenger to Davis quite rapidly, both Fox and Duncan are going to do very poorly, with Fox making a somewhat bizarre call for single sex education in today’s observer, which smacked of desperation, while Duncan seems to not have any real expectation that he could win, Fox’s ego will be sorely dented if he performs as poorly as I’m expecting.
Rifkin is another candidate with little to recommend him, other than being “Howard Mk2”, having already tired a balding, bespeckeled, ex-Thatcherite Minister who rose to higher office under Major I can’t see any reason why the Tory Party will plum in great numbers for Rifkin this time around. While Rifkin will probably siphon off moderate, “one-nationists” from Cameron he is unlikely to rival Cameron and I would expect him to drop out soon after Fox and Duncan.
Despite Cameron’s good last week or so, Davis still has an impressive lead, word is he has 60-70 MPs already solidly behind him and has expanded his base of support out from the right of the party appealing to moderates and former Clark allies such as Ian Taylor and Damien Green, at the same time he still boasts the necessarily attributes to make a tough and effective leader without the usual draw back of being branded “out of touch” as are many Tories, thanks to a compelling personal narative. What is more on the right Davis faces only Fox as competitor allowing him with his moderate supporters to appeal to undecided MPs while Cameron has to stifle the campaign of both Rifkin, Duncan as well as potentially Clark and Landsley early on, however Cameron seems to be accomplishing this quite well at the moment.
As things stand now, Davis is the favourite but Cameron is still very much in contention and IMHO the gap will narrow over the coming weeks as Undecided MPs and especially members of the new intake make up their minds… at lot of people will be looking to see what Davis says in a policy speech he has seduced for some time next week (can’t remember when), it will be important for him to retake the initiative after Cameron’s good run over recent days as parliament goes into recess and the Conservative MPs enter a long hot summer of campaigning… there’s a long way to go and I have to say I no longer think its going to be a “slam dunk” for Davis, I think Cameron could well make this very competitive and possibly very tight.
51 , Andera . Yes , interesting about Hughes . The only other factor that spring to mind is that perhaps the locals weren’t keen on Hughes running and losing the Mayoralty and thus them being a fall back second best ?? We’ll have to await a Lib Dem encyclical from Tabman on the matter .
BTW on British telly have you seen Blackadder , Fawlty Towers , Porridge , Open All Hours , Dad’s Army , Yes (Prime) Minister or Only Fools and Horses. Please don’t judge British comedy on George and Mildred !!!!!
49 - Would prefer Sophia Loren to Joan Collins but then I’m not that picky - LOL . I don’t buy the unpopular local council excuse either . As Andrea says the swing in his favour at the previous election was unusually high and a la Twigg what goes around comes around and a big swing at one election sometimes gets a little reaction at the next one .
52/53 - I did wonder at the possibility of his standing for mayor having had some effect for the fall in his vote . Would not argue with Ben on on the adverse effects of Labour selecting a black candidate in 2001 though his comments on Bermondsey being notoriously racist is rather over the top .
Did not make any comment on George and Mildred just in case it was written by a Jack W alter persona LOL
OK get back to the Conservative leadership if you must Ben only another 5 months to go .
54 , Mark . Ah…. What is it with gentlemen of a certain age and Sophia Loren ……..???
51 , Ben . Thanks for the Hughes info . As for the Tory leadership they really are dancing around the running blocks before the pistol goes off . I was told on Friday that our Ken was more likely to stand than not as the 20 MPs required for a bid are “easily in the bag” and he was enjoying suport from “unexpected quarters” . That said I’m still not convinced Ken will go for it , although I wish he would.
54 - Mark
I hate to besmirch the good name of sunny, desirable Southwark, but I’m afraid that in 2001 Hughes benefited from the racist attitudes of a not insubstantial number of his constituents who would rather vote for him than Labour’s black and somewhat hapless candidate but in 2005 he faced a better organised, more concerted campaign lead by a white Labour candidate and as a result he suffered adversely when compared with what else happened nationally for the LibDems – Its something I said was likely to happen and some people kicked up a hot fuss about the idea that perhaps race had been an issue in Hughes winning an near 10,000 majority back in 2001… but I would hazard that the 2005 result bears out my argument.
Sorry Mark I posted after 54 and before 55… didn’t mean to leap at you like that… should be more patient I suppose.
While there is, definitely, a residual racist vote in Hughes’ constituency, I think it only played a partial role in the 2001 campaign (it’s indicative that, in 2001 and 2005, it was the NF who stood, securing the remnants of their old 70s vote, not an actively expanding BNP). In 2005 the Tory vote rose, with a fall in pro-Hughes tactical voting a possible explanation.
Good post Ben 52, What is interesting is that this is not an ideological split. Tory MPs will be looking, surely, at who will help them perform best at the next election. Nothing else matters.
I think this is going to get closer and closer. At the moment Davis seems to be over-priced and Cameron underpriced.
52- Thanks about Hughes.
I don’t doubt that Labour fought a strong campaign in Southwark North and Bermondsey, but I suppose they fought a good campaign in many seats where their % of votes fell (almost every seat).
The big swing against the black Labour candidate last time could be an explanation, but many voters lost by Hughes went to the tories (but ok, voters who left a party only becuase the candidate is black could like tories immigration campaign).
Considering the swing from labour to libdems in the whole country I woulnd’t have expected such a big swing against Hughes, certainly not an increase, but not a 5.9% swing against.
Southwark North and Bermondsey’s voters don’t seem to attract good press (homophobic in the 80’s, racist in 2001).
58 - My name Mark not Rik so I don’t get uptight about comments on a board such as this . By it’s nature opposing views will always be here and at least your views have some evidence in their favour .
“I would expect him to drop out soon after Fox and Duncan”
I think that Duncan really wants to run, but I’m not sure he could find 20 nominations.
On the Tory vs Lib Dem election performances, I’m not sure it’s fair to say the proportionate increase in seats was similar so each did similarly well.
Two differences between Tory and Lib Dem performances. The Tories increased from virtually their worst defeat in 170 years. No serious commentator, at any point after the 2001 election expected the Tories to lose seats in 2005. The Lib Dems were aiming to improve on their best performance for 70-odd years, and as after 1997, it had seemed at the beginning of the 2001-5 Parliament that they might have reached their high-water mark.
And then there’s the votes situation. The Tories got essentially the same share of the vote in 2005 as in 2001. The Lib Dems went up by 4%. The Tory gains were basically due to a swing from Labour to Lib Dem (aside from the Tory - Lib Dem front on which they were just ahead). The Lib Dem lack of gains was due to the lack of Labour-Lib Dem marginals compared to Tory - Lib Dem marginals.
Having said all that, the increase in seats WAS very similar between the parties. And of course the Lib Dems came third as ever and 10% behind even the Tories. A lot of the difference in perceptions was to do with aspirations and expectations - Tories were trying to win the election, no serious Lib Dem expected to.
I think that in a two horse race Cameron could and would beat Davis amongst MP’s. DD has made too many enemies in the party to be sure of victory. I also suspect the bulk of the new MP’s will gravitate towards Cameron eventually. Whether Cameron is a good choice is an open question. Certainly he would get people to look again at the party in a fresh light, but he has made bad decisions in the past. The manifesto, was very poor and vacous and seemed the product of a focus group rather than a serious political party. Also he seems to be rowing away from the choice agenda in his speeches as education secretary which is a bad move. The Tory policy on choice in education at the last election while not perfect was a decent step forward. Instead of abandoning it, the Tories need to throw themselves into the intellectual arguments behind their advocacy of choice in education and health. The party must not be afraid of taking on strong vested interests and a sceptical media.
Certainly though Cameron represents a risk. Whether it is a risk the party should take will be determined by his efforts over the next few months? I for one, still retain an open mind on his candidature.
By far the best option would be for Cameron to take over, like Michael Howard, in mid-term. Leaving aside the question of experience and authority, he’ll look stale by the next GE.
It is a worry that there are “60-70 MPs already solidly behind [David Davis]“. I can not see beyond David Davis being, if not an absolute disaster (although more often than not I think he would be) a sideway step for the Tory party. He offers nothing that would go beyond the 33% core vote. Half the time I think he is IDS with more charisma, the other half of the time I think he is IDS with less charisma.
65.” I also suspect the bulk of the new MP’s will gravitate towards Cameron eventually”
What do we know about the new MPs? How many have alredy declared for one of the candidates?
Michael Gove is obviously a Cameron’s supporter, Nick Herbert will back Davis and I read that Justine Greening and Greg Hands are Fox’s supporters.
the Tories have got their chance to snare the likes of me and of a sizeable majority of my friends. If the party has any sense at all, it will elect Cameron to the leadership and, if the feeling in the air is anything to go by, very possibly pocket a great big slew of votes from people who have never voted Tory before, and never imagined they ever would — unless of course Cameron suddenly outs himself as a believer in the intrinsic evil of all immigrants, or as a weird homophobe
This passage is a perfect example of how quickly trendy metropolitan liberals in politics and the media seem to generalise from their own circle of friends and acquaintances to the electorate as a whole. If they talked to ordinary voters on the doorstep they might see just how out of touch their fashionable sentiments really are with what voters actually care about. It also demonstrates rather a short historical memory. It’s worth recalling just how much Sir Keith Joseph was seen by the liberal elites of the mid 1970s as some sort of sick, contemptible bigot, for arguing the benefits of inequality of wealth and against social democratic principles. It didn’t stop real voters thrice endorsing the Thatcher revolution of which he was such an important architect.
Would most of the newer MPs gravitate? I thought a majority of them were closer to Davis in policy terms.
Davis will only survive in the long term if he adopts a modernising agenda, on the old “de Gaulle and Algeria” principle. He might be able to carry it off with more aplomb than IDS, but that’s not a given.
And did she miss Cameron’s speech this week, where he called for special support for traditional marriage, identifying it (correctly) as the best way of raising children? I’d have thought that’s exactly the sort of outlook that would make people Indira Knight call someone a ‘weird homophobe’.
60 – Mike
Praise from Caesar
…I agree, I think Davis will find it hard to get more than 100 MPs backing him, now that’s all that he’ll need, but it doesn’t give him much margin for error either, my sense is that there are at least 60-70 Tory MPs who would NEVER back Davis but they are a fairly eclectic bunch from IDS loyalists to Duncan style Libertarians and Rifkin-esqu grandees… if Cameron cements his position as the anti-Davis, and to be fair I think he’s pretty much more than half way there already, he would be well placed to hoover-up the anti-Davis votes together with his own supporters creating a block of nearly 100. Where this to happen you then have to roughly even blocks backing both Cameron and Davis which would culminate in a very close contest.
I have to say I think there is an ideological dimension to this contest however like the Blair – Brown axis it is as much about emphasis as anything else, largely because within the parliamentary Conservative Party there is a broad consensus over the big policy issues, the party is overwhelmingly Eurosceptic, In favour of private involvement in the public sector and keen to reduce the size of the state. Coming from the Right of the Party Davis offers are far more ideological, populist style while Cameron with backing from the centre and left of the party would like to offer a more consensual, liberal approach with a personal style very similar to Tony Blair’s circa 1994-97… in the end there are differences in emphasis between the perhaps commanding and strident Davis and the apparently more affable Cameron but I would largely agree that there is a broad consensus on policy and the real battle is one over how the Conservative Party wants to be seen, and two completing visions of that seems to have found their personifications in Davis and Cameron respectively.
Overall I agree, this race will get very close… but it will be interesting to see how Davis attempts to regain the initiative over the next week or so, and indeed how this long summer goes for the parliamentary Tory Party…
John Maples is backing David Davis. He said DD “is a better leader than Blair and as good as Thatcher”.
Praise indeed…
69..” If they talked to ordinary voters on the doorstep they might see just how out of touch their fashionable sentiments really are with what voters actually care about”
It’s not that the tories are more in touch with the majority of UK voters or at least they didn’t give many signs in the polling station to think what the tories were thinking .
One of the factors that is often held against Cameron is his background. I’ve argued before that the macho image put about by Davis could alienate a lot of middle class voters, particularly women. Cameron comes across as being quite nice and quite un-frightening and is perhaps more able to win back that sort of voter.
Its also true that we need to win as many C1’s & C2’s as well, but at the end of the day their are a limited number of seats in the South East area and with the best will in the world we’re not going to start winning working class seats in the North and the Mid-lands. More important is to try winning back seats like Edinburgh South, Sheffield Hallam, Edgbaston,(the new!) Yardley and (I didn’t ever think I’d have to say this) Solihull.
73. “John Maples is backing David Davis. He said DD “is a better leader than Blair and as good as Thatcher”.”
Is there a new type of drugs around?
71.”support for traditional marriage, identifying it (correctly) as the best way of raising children”
I still can’t understand how a piece of paper could make a difference in the way to rise children. I don’t see any potential difference between a married couple and a non married couple in the ability to raise children.
72.”Tory MPs who would NEVER back Davis but they are a fairly eclectic bunch from IDS loyalists to Duncan style Libertarians ”
I’m not 100% sure that Alan Duncan will back Cameron at the end.
I am sure I heard somewhere that Alan Duncan is going to “come out” for David Davis in a few weeks.
77. Afterall he’s a personal friend of Derek Conway.
Andrea - I think a public commitment counts for something.
79. oh yes, a good shadow cabinet position is always appreciated.
A quick test - please ignore
It’s not that the tories are more in touch with the majority of UK voters or at least they didn’t give many signs in the polling station to think what the tories were thinking
Clearly the Tories need to win more people over. The point is that Indira Knight’s piece is utterly implausible in proposing that becoming more pro-immigration and pro-homosexual are the way to do it. These are the concerns of Islington cocktail parties, not real numbers of swing voters. It’s worth reading the column in full to see just how weird are the people she’s talking about. This is how she begins:
Rather an odd thing has been happening over the past fortnight. Again and again, the most improbable people keep talking admiringly about David Cameron, MP for Witney and Tory leadership candidate. What is odd about this is that the people in question, myself included, are not natural Conservative voters.
We grew up in the 1980s, loathed Mrs Thatcher and held her personally responsible for destroying the social fabric of Britain in a manner whose aftershocks are still being disastrously felt. I have never in my life voted Conservative — the very idea is like a sort of grotesque, unfunny joke. And yet the Cameron conversation just keeps on cropping up.
Does anyone really propose that this circle of friends are representative of the wider public? I wish they were this enthused and interest in the Conservative Party, because it would provide a real opportunity, but the current squabbles and leadership debate is turning off even staunch politicos. Indira Knight’s friends sound like bizarre political anoraks talking to themselves. They do not represent the way back to power.
I still can’t understand how a piece of paper could make a difference in the way to rise children. I don’t see any potential difference between a married couple and a non married couple in the ability to raise children.
That’s because marriage isn’t merely a piece of paper but a strong and for most people quite strongly binding commitment. The statistics on breakdown of marriages and cohabitations, and on how well children do in school, on likelihood of being abused, in the workplace when they grow up, on whether they enter a life of crime, and all sorts of other things all point to the benefits of marriage. Cameron was right to take account of this (which is why I hope my posts here are seen as pooh-poohing Indira Knight’s column as a representative picture of the electorate, and not David Cameron himself or his leadership campaign).
“Afterall he’s a personal friend of Derek Conway.” - Something only the mediocre sorry great can aspire to
Sorry, messed up italics…
It’s not that the tories are more in touch with the majority of UK voters or at least they didn’t give many signs in the polling station to think what the tories were thinking
Clearly the Tories need to win more people over. The point is that Indira Knight’s piece is utterly implausible in proposing that becoming more pro-immigration and pro-homosexual are the way to do it. These are the concerns of Islington cocktail parties, not real numbers of swing voters. It’s worth reading the column in full to see just how weird are the people she’s talking about. This is how she begins:
“Rather an odd thing has been happening over the past fortnight. Again and again, the most improbable people keep talking admiringly about David Cameron, MP for Witney and Tory leadership candidate. What is odd about this is that the people in question, myself included, are not natural Conservative voters.
“We grew up in the 1980s, loathed Mrs Thatcher and held her personally responsible for destroying the social fabric of Britain in a manner whose aftershocks are still being disastrously felt. I have never in my life voted Conservative — the very idea is like a sort of grotesque, unfunny joke. And yet the Cameron conversation just keeps on cropping up.”
Does anyone really propose that this circle of friends are representative of the wider public? I wish they were this enthused and interest in the Conservative Party, because it would provide a real opportunity, but the current squabbles and leadership debate is turning off even staunch politicos. Indira Knight’s friends sound like bizarre political anoraks talking to themselves. They do not represent the way back to power.
I still can’t understand how a piece of paper could make a difference in the way to rise children. I don’t see any potential difference between a married couple and a non married couple in the ability to raise children.
That’s because marriage isn’t merely a piece of paper but a strong and for most people quite strongly binding commitment. The statistics on breakdown of marriages and cohabitations, and on how well children do in school, on likelihood of being abused, in the workplace when they grow up, on whether they enter a life of crime, and all sorts of other things all point to the benefits of marriage. Cameron was right to take account of this (which is why I hope my posts here are seen as pooh-poohing Indira Knight’s column as a representative picture of the electorate, and not David Cameron himself or his leadership campaign).
Andrea - actually referring to marriage, not Tory leadership. Went a bit off topic there.
Re. 34, the Beaconsfield by-election was in 1982, not 1981.
Back to the original photo…
“Is this the man for the Tory party?”
Well, that chap in the fetching blue cardigan certainly appears to have the same charismatic appeal as IDS.
“Well, that chap in the fetching blue cardigan certainly appears to have the same charismatic appeal as IDS. ”
I think the person in a blue cardigan is actually a lady…
Alan Duncan’s sudden credit within the Party is amazing. Weeks ago, he was known only for being mistaken for Iain Duncan Smith and now people are talking him up as the next Shadow Foreign Secretary. He’ll be shot down in flames, and the next leader will give him a middling post to dampen down his enthusiams for himself.
I have always thought Alan Duncan has played the role of kingmaker in most of the (numerous) recent Tory leadership campaigns.
Re Southwark N & Bermondsey, I think the comments posted have touched on most aspects (though I don’t think the mayoral issue had much effect). The rise in the Tory vote I would ascribe largely to gentrification rather than to switches by voters who lived in the constituency in 2001.
90 - how many MPs can he swing behind a candidate? Is he now looked to by the once Portilloites?
Caption: ‘The Labour party wants voters to be like sheep — but we Conservatives…’
or (note position of left hand): ‘There’ll always be a place for you in the Party, old chap — minding the beasts’
85. ops, sorry. I was thinking about a public commitment towards one of the candidate.
83. Sophia, here’s a story for you about your “hero” and Alan Duncan
http://www.bexleyexpress.co.uk/content/bexley/express/news/story.aspx?brand=BXEOnline&category=news&tBrand=northlondon24&tCategory=newsbxe&itemid=WeED30%20Jun%202005%2010%3A08%3A44%3A863
Duncan could take the “he is not so young anymore” comment as as offence.
“I’m sure even Alan would agree that he is not so young anymore.”
What a bizarre comment, both Derek Conway and David Davis are older than Alan Duncan.
Peter @ 84: I think you’re wrong to say that India Knight proposes that becoming pro-immigration and pro-homosexual will attract more voters; she seems to mean that a sudden gaffe in the direction of intolerance would wreck both Cameron’s and the Tories’ chances — as it very likely would. I agree with you about marriage: the idea that it’s ‘just a bit of paper’ may have made sense 40 years ago, when marriage was a sign of social respectability in some circles, but not today.
I’m sure that India Knight’s friends are not representitive of your typical swing voter. What is undeniably true though is that much of Britain (Scotland, Wales, the North of England, the Midlands etc) clearly didn’t believe we were in touch with the issues that concerned them. Its not a case of being ridicoulously politically correct and trying to woo guardian readers. Its about accepting that our message at present doesn’t appeal to enough people. Cameron appears (to me) to be more able to renew the party and to reach out beyond the core.
Am I the only person on here who has not got a clue who Indira Knight is . Is she a pop star or something ?
84.”The statistics on breakdown of marriages and cohabitations, and on how well children do in school, on likelihood of being abused, in the workplace when they grow up, on whether they enter a life of crime, and all sorts of other things all point to the benefits of marriage”
but are you comparing statistics about married couples and not married couples or statistics about married couples and divorced couples? I could take in consideration that a child is better raised by 2 parents than by a single mother, but I don’t think that a married couple are better parents than a couple who lives together, but it’s not married.
98. Me too, but I don’t count. She has a name which could be used successfully in a soap opera…..and “starring Joan Collins as Indira Knight”.
Caption competition:
Cow: “He’s probably my favourite mooderniser”
Flat cap: “Blimey, a talking cow!”
Blue cardigan: “That’s nothing. We’ve got a Tory in a tie over here.”
It’s India, not Indira. She’s one of those middlebrow Sunday supplement journalists - used to be at the Observer I think.
99 - you also have to allow for the fact that marriage may, statistically, follow the greater commitment rather than lead it. Then you would get the patterns you mentioned, but it would be wrong (post hoc ergo propter hoc) to conclude that an unmarried couple will have a more stable relationship if, without anything else changing, they choose to marry.
101.”Cow: “He’s probably my favourite mooderniser”
Flat cap: “Blimey, a talking cow!”
Blue cardigan: “That’s nothing. We’ve got a Tory in a tie over here.” ”
Cow 1: Does he want to reform the CAP?
Cow 2: Yes, he’s a tory moderniser. A Blair look alike.
Cow 1: but so “blue cardigan” will lose money and she’ll give us less to eat.
Cow 2: yeah, we shouldn’t vote for him. He’s not inclusive. He’s against cows! A cowphobic! We shall move to France.
Mike at 43. At this rate of progress the Tories will be back in office by 2052 so perhaps “wipeout was too strong. Gentle progress which might take longer than many of us have got is probably more delicate.
Re NS&B (Simon Hughes) I think there was, as some have said, a change in the voters and mostly not the voting intentions. I have heard that the seat has a 25% change in voters between each election, which much make identification at election time difficult.
Interestingly, in the South West marginal I am in, the local Lib Dems blamed a similar thing for doing not too well- that with the very high house prices, those moving to the area are either more upper class tories, or Labourites from Islington buying a holiday home- few Lib Dems can afford to move in, or are moving away. Probably a bad excuse but an interesting point.
Roger, if the next election were to see a similar swing to this one, the Conservatives would likely be the largest party.
I *know* that in your World everyone thinks the Sun comes out of TB’s/GB’s rear end, but it’s not how the rest of us think.
102 - Sorry , Thought Indira was a typo , like many of mine - LOL
106.”Labourites from Islington buying a holiday home- few Lib Dems can afford to move in, or are moving away. Probably a bad excuse but an interesting point. ”
Labour could borrow this excuse to explain their result in Islington South.
Caption Competition :
Cameron to Lady : Madam I don’t mind kissing babies but I draw the line at putting my arm up a cows arse !
Cameron: “These are our goals: a dynamic economy. A decent society. A strong self-confident nation.”
Cow: “Spot the bull.”
Re N Southwark & Bermondsey result, one other factor to bear in mind is that in 05 LD activists there were instructed to help in other seats (notably Brent E) and therefore did not run such a strong campaign as they had done in 01 (remember the 97 result was very marginal, so a lot of external effort poured into the seat for the 01 election). Similar explanation for the results in the other LD held seats in London, notably Kingston & Surbiton (activists sent to Guildford). In both cases, substantial swing back very much to be expected. LD activists tend to be more “mobile” than those of other parties - and particularly so in London, owing to good transport links & the fact that for years & years LD activists were used to travelling to Bermondsey or Richmond.
Cameron; And what do you call this one?
Blue Lady; Mrs T. She’s a Tory.
Cow; …..And pigs might fly!
112 - yes, speaking from personal experience of popping up the Jubilee line to Brent East, this is quite true.
16 - Rik, we’re even doing sleaze better than you these days. Proves we’re now a proper political party.
Cow One: “I do like Tories.”
Cow Two: “Yes, but I coudn’t eat a whole one.”
115 - honeyroom upgrade is not quite in the same league as…some former leaders of the opposition one has known?
117 - what are you referring to?
[116] has got to be the winner
112. but I suppose that Labour actvists were sent to other seats too.
IIRW, Labour targetted no seats held by an anotehr party except Adam Price’s seat.
Big Swing in your Sentiment Mr Smithson? Only a few days ago you felt an old unb rather than a young un. Purely the change of heart driven by weekend’s eventsa? On a Lib Dem Viewpoint how do you rate Cameron? You certainly rate him far more highly than David Davis at least as a Tv performer, a vitala attrributea.
120: a generalisation (so not universally true) but I’ve heard tell that Labour activists are like fine wines: by and large they don’t travel …
More seriously, LDs were defending far fewer seats in London. In 01 there was a big effort to get LDs across London to work in just 6 or 7 seats (if you include Orpington), whereas this time only 1 of the ‘held’ seats received any external help, and the ’safe’ seats like Bermondsey & Kingston actually exported help for the first time. Hence you’d expect LD majorities to go down in those seats, but they remain comfortable.
Alan Duncan would have been my first choice, but it’s important to get united behind a single candidate who isn’t David Davis if we want the latest unfathomably inevitable leader foisted upon us.
I vote for Book Value on 101.
124 - agreed!
Letwin supporting Cameron smacks to me of old school chums. This is exactly the sort of thing we need to get away from and why Rifkind, as a Scot, marks a departure from this clubby Englishness that infuses the party.
123 - Tory B - Are the Tories begining to worry that they dont have a leader that will appeal to the 75% of the population who didnt vote Tory, except for K Clarke who Tory members dont seem to like!
I think now might be the time put a few bob on KC (with Cameron as his no 2).
BTW I think the ones on the right of the picture are likely to be bullocks (will that pass the spam filter?)
Since the vast majority of the electorate is English, I am not sure how a Scots leader would be beneficial (hence Gordon Brown going on about Britishness).
Cameron; Do you ever worry about ‘Mad Cow Disease?’
Cow; Nah…. I’m a duck.
Sophia, why do so many call centres emply Scots then? People (yes, mostly English) associate a Scots accent with a cultured, reassuring and prudent person. Rifkind has this in spades. As one of the earlier posts said, we have to fight fire with fire and if Labour have Brown we need to respond in kind.
Cow One: “Looks like the Lynx Effect at work. Thought I recognised the smell from when Jack W came down here last week.”
Cow Two: “Yup - Cameron’s pulled a cracker!”
….if you’re trying to respond to Brown in kind I don’t think the Scottish accent is where I’d start. A razor sharp grasp of things ecconomic might be a starting point?
Nuala - I think you’ll find call cebtres employ Scots because it is far cheaper, both in real estate and labour to set up a call centre in Scotland than in England.
As to the leadership I am a big fan of Liam Fox, but choosing a Scot would be a disaster. There is a large groundswell of resentment towards Scotland in the South especially, and having a Scottish leader won’t help us one iota.
Nuala they generally have call centres in the cheapest areas, which Scotland, Northern Ireland and North East England generaly tend to be, hence the majority of British call centres being there and hence the movement towards call centres in India rather than in the UK.
I would be inclined to think that the majority of English people feel, if anything, there are too many Scottish MPs in parliament and particuarly in government, rather than too few.
134 - they have them in Croydon too!
“There is a large groundswell of resentment towards Scotland in the South especially” You people are so prejudiced you even have a problem with the Scots! I have noticed no such groundswell but then I dont spend my time in Conservative clubs.
You should all disband and join the BNP.
You know it makes sense.
135 - what, Scotttish people?
“what, Scotttish people” - Croydon is even more depressing than I thought…
136 - Roger - a comment like “you people” is rather sweeping and prejudiced!! I have met some very nice retired Colonels in Conservative clubs. They even let women into a few now
roger - I don’t know where you spend your time, but I guess it’s in the parallel world where the Conservatives were “wiped out” earlier this year.
There does seem to be a growing resentment towards the scottish and welsh elements governing england…..its madness that Welsh Labour Mps can vote for Id cards which may not be introduced in Wales for example…..the answer is obvious..Parliaments for England Scotland and Wales with tax varying powers …..
Roger - The people doing the most whining about Scots are Labour MP’s in the North East. Including Doug Henderson who is a Scot himself. So should he join the BNP as well. And what about all the Scots who aren’t particularly fond of the English (North and South)?
Its not prejudice to raise legimate questions. There has to be a real debate about issues like fiscal autonomy for Scotland, Wales and Ulster.
142 - Max, I thought Scots now had a (degree of) fiscal autonomy, but “choose” not to exercise it?
I apologize for my last post. But you wonder why 67% of the voters wont vote for you. As Ashcroft says “While other parties supporters had a similar profile to Britain as a whole, Conservatives did not”
Who else would care less whether or not someone was from Scotland or anywhere else for that matter?
144 - Roger 76% wouldnt vote for the Lib Dems!!
143 - Tabman, the parliament can vary income tax upwards on downwards by 3p in the £. It is a degree of autonomy but not nearly enough.
145 - what’s a bit of numeric transposition between friends?
146 - Max, are you advocating a full federal set up (with which I would concur)?
How can anyone showing their party colours as Andy does be happy to pander to the sort of petty provincialism that he seems to think holds sway in the south of England? It is really no different from the sort of prejudice that has kept so many Conservative candidates white and male for years.
Some miscellaneous comments.
I’m with Peter that Islington Liberals with with extra journalists are so not typical voters. (e.g. 69) On marriage and children, ’till death do us part’ rings a bit hollow nowadays.
101 great caption book value!
If the 2009 / 2010 election has a similar swing to this one (see 107)Tories would have the most votes. But I think First Past the Post would still give Labour more seats, despite Labour having much bigger losses to the Lib Dems because there are now more marginals. It’d be something like Tory 250, Lib Dem 80, Labour 280. However it’s unlikely to be the same again.
Could we predict Labour’s vote to fall faster as they’re been in office for longer and people will be more fed up with them? Better than evens on Labour to get less than 31%? Sounds extraordinary now, and a new leader might slow down the swing. If true, it still gives you no idea whether the votes would go Tory or Lib Dem.
Simon Hughes would have got little or no external help this time round, same as Kingston and Surbiton (see 112, very good point). It’s a bit like the difference between David Davis’ results in 2001 and 2005 - his activists stayed in his constituency in 2005 so he did a lot better.
128. Scots may care whether they have English people ruling them but I for one don’t care in the slightest which UK nationality my rulers are. I’d far rather have Gordon Brown as chancellor than, for example, Tony Blair or John Prescott, neither of whom have much clue about economics.
Tabman - I don’t have a problem with the idea. I think in many ways its the best way to preserve the Union which from my point of view is important for a number of emotional, cultural and economic reasons.
The only problem is that there doesn’t appear to be much appetite for it in England. You either have to have a single English Parliament or a number of regional parliaments, neither of which people seem too keen on.
149 - my view: stronger counties.
150 - Tabman - I agree entirely.
151
Max. Don’t you think this is the sort of petty provincial thinking that has kept the Tory party so ‘male and white’ for so long. And also why in 2005 so many still regard the Tories as too bigoted to vote for? If you think this ‘resentment’ (if it exists) is anything other than old fashioned prejudice please tell me what it is?
Nuala at One Thirty accepting your argument at One Thirty, Rifkind doesn#’t have nice gentle Scots Accent, somewhere along the way it seems to have cross bred with Price Charles’s voice. Rifkind a great Chap, but frankly even GB looks Charismatic and as Star TV perormer by comparison.
127 Icarus, do you reckon DC-KC might have the same sort of understanding that London-Madrid in the Olympic are mean’rt to have, both go all out to win it individually, but whoever nmight eliminated first will in a mutual quid pro quo try to swing their block of votes Behind the other?
151 - actully, I shouldn’t be surprised. Like Sophia you only think you’re a Tory …
154 - A - sounds possible. KC is a bit quiet, but in fact it will all be down to the conference - who is in charge of the running order?
Do you think that there is a Labour plot for the Home Sec to be ineffectual relative to DD to boost his chances (because they dont want Clarke). Or is that a bit far fetched!!!
153 - Its about asking why Scotland get more per head of capita than any where else in the UK. If you think those questions are only being asked by Tories in the South East then your very much mistaken. Its a legitimate debate that has to be had. Its either that or the slippery slope towards the break up of the UK.
156 - a choice between Cameron and DD sounds rather like a win/win situation to me. Actually I begin to agree with Noola that someone like Rifkind would do better for the Tories.
157 - Sorry should be more money per head of population!
124, 125, 148 - you’re too kind. If the people wish me to serve as official caption writer, who am I to decline?
Btw, Shailesh Vara is backing Davis.
Send it to Private Eye
Shailesh Vara said about Mr Davis was the candidate with the broadest experience “in politics and in life” to appeal to ethnic minorities, the poor and other sections of society.
Oh dear, and I used to work at the same firm as Shailesh Vara.
Did Shailesh Vara found Toc H?
159. I take it you are not a Tory?
Icarus, any views on 155? Am i being too Conspiracy Minded?
“Did Shailesh Vara found Toc H?” What?
Shailesh is a great guy - and demonstrates what a load of BS was being talked last night about the “new members swinging behind Cameron”. I have no doubt some will but a lot are backing David Davis, as I hinted.
“but a lot are backing David Davis, as I hinted.”
Apart from Nick Herbert and Mr Vara, who else? You would have thought the new intake would be ambitious about their futures, but obviously not…
159 - “a choice between Cameron and DD sounds rather like a win/win situation to me”.
Picture yourself in a boat on a river
With tangerine trees and marmalade skies
Somebody calls you, you answer quite slowly
A girl with kaleidoscope eyes…………
………………………..
………………….
170. Philip Davies from Shipley.
172 - that is not a surprise Andrea.
Below is the face of the man to unite the party, to inspire the 67% of the population to vote Conservative, especially the sections of the society which have been put off voting Conservative in the last decade, the young, women and professionals, yes, the all inclusive… Mr David Davis:
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/41263000/jpg/_41263807_davis203_pa.jpg
Roge What have you been drinking?
170 - Sophia, that I cannot tell at present as it is in confidence but there will be more “reveals” over the next few days and weeks. You are allowing your dislike of DD to colour your judgement. A lot of people who know him well are very supportive of him. He has a strog group of loyalists among previous and new MPs, which is why I have not bought this “he is unpopular”, “he is lazy” nonsense. If he is so unpopular and lazy how come he is the front runner amongst MPs and running such an effective campaign?
Sophia, virtually everyone admits that both DC and KC are far better TV Performers. David Daviscan be the best “policy” candidate in the world, if he can’t come across well to thos not already voting Conservative on TV it doesn’t matter a damn how inclusive he is. Ali Campbell isreported to hope he wins, as easiest to caricature however unfairly as a right wing loonie. I fear that analysis is all too right.
173. Sophia, in terms of look Davis isn’t bad, while Tony Blair is really getting old.
“You are allowing your dislike of DD”
Not dislike, just the fact that he would be at best a sidewards step for the Tory Party.
“Sophia, in terms of look Davis isn’t bad, while Tony Blair is really getting old.”
You should have seen the picture in the Sun they used of Davis this morning… Your right, Tony Blair is looking very old and haggard. David Davis just looks old.
“If he is so unpopular and lazy how come he is the front runner amongst MPs and running such an effective campaign?”
To be honest Rik, I don’t think even you know how many people actually support David Davis (heaven forbid, but some people might say one thing to one individual and something else to another). If DD does become the dead cert that people believe then obviously people will want to back a winner. They may not particularly want David Davis.
169 - the thought of “swinging [Tory] members” is a disturbing one on many levels …
172 - and they say nepotism is dead …
178 - Of course I cant know everyone, but I know quite a few who have not yet declared. I have a reasonable idea of the general numbers backing various candidates. I will have to update my much earlier post on another thread where I gave some thoughts as to who might and might not stand. Cameron has come up fast from a position where I did not expect him to stand. HOwever, he has gained quite a bit of support and will definately stand now I am confident. KC wont tho - that prediction remains. Also Alan Duncan wont stand and will back DD, I hear!
Andy - I KNOW WHO YOU ARE NOW! lol
Rik is it tue DD hates Cameron? Like it or not CAmeron looks a future Leader even if not this time. Will be bad news for the Party if DD creates some kind of hEZZA-Thatcer rIVALRYa?
Rik, is it true that all the previous leaders (IDS, Hague, Howard) will try to scupper Davis’ chances?
167 - A - You cannot be too conspiracy minded in this game. My comment was on 157.
As an anti Tory my only worry is KC and as he might well split them even he might be good news. Though if The Labour party are still sheepishly following Blair then why shouldnt the Tories swallow their views on Europe etc. and follow KC.
Shouldn’t people just stop and hold back a little bit here? David Cameron has been in Parliament for 4 years. 4 years!!! Has there ever been anyone else in the history of British politics since Pitt the Younger potentially promoted so far so fast?
183 Sophia, the person doing his best TO Scupper DD’s Chances albeit inadvertently is Derek Conway.
178.”You should have seen the picture in the Sun they used of Davis this morning… Your right, Tony Blair is looking very old and haggard. David Davis just looks old”
I hope he wasn’t shirtless in “The SUN”, but maybe only Tony has this privilage.
Look at this photos of DD, naturally tieless:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/06/05/ntory05.xml
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/05/29/ntory29.xml
180. Rik W, do you know who the MP for Windsor will back?
185 Apologies, but that’s tosh. No one moaned Wayne Rooney was too young in his line of work did they? If you’re good enmough, yoiu’re old enough. Also David Cameron is 38, Pitt became POM at 21 for Goodness SAke, and Tony Blair was a whopping 41 when he becamea Labour Leader.
Looks if the door is shutting on Mr Davis http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/06/05/ntory05.xml
Gosh, what a physique, you can tell he has been in the (Territorial) TA. He slightly reminds me of my late grandfather, but with the complexion of my late grandmother.
189, and some parts of his face (and body) are too red.
182 - I believe that DD and DC do not get on. I think hatred is a little strong!
183 - I am sure they all have their personal favorites but I think one of those may come out for DD.
“Cameron has been in Parliament for 4 years. 4 years!!!”
Doesn’t that kind of sum up how uninspired David Davis as a candidate is though. This is the man with the best background history, with 18 years experience as an MP, has been as been a minister, and is now shadow home secretary (which is far and away the best position to have as an advert for your candidate) and yet the only people inspired by the thought of him becoming leader are his old mates from the whips office and his old friend Alistair Campbell.
Can Rik and Sophia please agree that the dream ticket for the Tory leadership is Gina G and (“Oh Ah Just a Little Bit”)and Katrina. We can thus also meld the two current threads in perfect harmony.
On second thoughts, I’ll join A.H. Matlock Down Under for the duration (and pray that Michael Fabricant emerges as the bouffant unity candidate)
Actually John O, it did cross my mind, seeing that we seem to be staying pretty steady in the polls with basically very little leadership at the moment, we change leaders every 3 months, kind of like the EU presidency, and eventually, to much acclaim, Michael Fabricant will have his turn…
Good gracious. One mention of ‘Micky’ Fabricant and up pops ‘Hair Loss Treatment’……
“183 - I am sure they all have their personal favorites but I think one of those may come out for DD. ”
Rik, couldn’t you expand on that…
193 -are you on the vino again? HOw can you say “he only people inspired by the thought of him becoming leader are his old mates from the whips office and his old friend Alistair Campbell”? He has had people from across the Party declare for him, incl today Shailesh Vara, who served under him as Party Dep Chmn, when he was allegedly so lazy! You cannot deny that he is the odds on favorite at the moment and that cannot be explained if he has so little support as you suggest.
197 - no! lol
195-196- Does Michael Fabricant use the same hairdresser of Ann Widdecombe?
Rik, there is a difference between being inspired and wanting a place back in the shadow cabinet (hello Damian Green) or backing a winner.
“cannot be explained if he has so little support as you suggest.”
I have never suggested he has so little support (I have no idea how much support he has and only go on what is reported).
It is more interesting to see how many people, whatever the circumstances, would not back him.
201 - Sophia, I know of very few people who are hostile to him. I know of loads who see him as the best choice. Damien Green is backing him because he has known and liked DD for a long time even though they are ideologically different. That is the sign of a person with leadership and personality quality that should not be underestimated.
DC is fine but he is too young and too inexperienced. Blair has been in the HoC 11 years before he became leader, and he had held various Shadow posts. DC has very little experience, just like Hague. Great guy, but needs to wait his turn.
David Davis is on the drift on Betfair as Cameron shortens now below 4.8-1. This is very interesting. Betfair is usually a very good indicator of how the wind is blowing.
I see that Greg Barker has resigned as a home affairs whip to support Cameron. Probably makes little difference, but is more evidence that Cameron will emerge as the main rival to davis.
201/2 - I’m getting Deja Vu …
Rik - what is it that you like best about DD? From a party standpoint I fear him most because I think he will take your party in directions that will strngthen it, but also perhaps give us some opportunities.
Nuala which party are you claiming to be “yours” now? Before you were a Conservative, now you sound like a LibDem!
Alex, yes I meant to say ours.
202 - Its good to hear that David Davis is a friend to all and a enemy to none. I expect to see IDS, William Hague and Michael Howard coming out for David Davis in the next couple of days, weeks.
205 - I couldn’t quite work that out as well.
Perhaps you could rewrite 204?
Its no secret that I favour Rifkind. DD might strengthen the party in some directions that gives us some opportunities. But on balance Rifkind is the one to gain us the most ground.
207 - Sophia you are getting as bad as Dan and John13 etc. I did not say “David Davis is a friend to all and a enemy to none”! I said “I know of very few people who are hostile to him. I know of loads who see him as the best choice”. I know some people dislike him - I think some even disliked Maggie as well - in politics it happens. However i think DD will carry a large part of the Plmty Party with him.
Rik do you think DD will win us centre votes?
“think some even disliked Maggie as well - in politics it happens”
Well Doh! Some members of the Labour party have never liked Tony Blair…
“However i think DD will carry a large part of the Plmty Party with him.”
Yes and No.
211 - I think he can if he pitches his policy appeal right and picks a credible Shadow cabinet.
It is a mistake to think we have to try to win over the sort of staunch lefty activists that sometimes post on here. What we need is that 45% coalition of right, centre right and genuinely floating voters. Of course we will take votes from wherever they come but our appeal should be targetted and our message should be clear. I think DD has the wherewithall to deliver that for us. BTW I personally have a lot riding on this (more than most punters on here) as I hope to contest a seat next time - and win!
Rik I agree with you about the percentages required, but I feel that Rifkind is more the man to not frighten the centrist horses whilst delivering a populist message.
213.”BTW I personally have a lot riding on this (more than most punters on here) as I hope to contest a seat next time - and win! ”
If you won’t get an already tory held seat, do you prefer fighting the Libdems again or trying to unseat a Labour MP next time?
“It is a mistake to think we have to try to win over the sort of staunch lefty activists that sometimes post on here. ”
True. I don’t think we are ever going to convert Roger somehow…
“What we need is that 45% coalition of right, centre right and genuinely floating voters. ”
Who the Tories ultimately need voting for them in numbers which they are not at the moment is Women. And whoever is made leader should remember that.
If women had not won the vote, there would have been a more or less continuous Labour Government since 1945. In fact, in the absence of women the Tories would have won just one election in the entire 20th Century (Churchill said he’d always have wanted women to have the vote if he’d only realised in the first place quite how many of them were going to vote for him)
“picks a credible Shadow cabinet”
Rik, if were leader, who would you put in your shadow cabinet?
214 - popular or populist? I think the former would be preferable. Just looking to “avoid frightening the centrist horses” is never a strategy for success - it makes it to easy for opponents to define you as they wish you to be seen. The Tories need to actively convert centrist voters back to their cause - something which is going to require a lot more than personalities and may require favourable events outwith their control to occur
David Davis is a steady as she goes Candidate Rik. He’s no IDS, and would probably have a decent crack at a hung parliament. I like him but i’m fed up of losing, i want either Ken Clarke or David Cameron. If they’re serious about winning power not merely improving on their current lowly position those are the men.
As for DC a little harsh, so he hasn’t been in the Coomons so long, big deal! He;’s been in politics far longer and knows the game inside out.
215 - an interesting question Andrea. Given the likely electoral dynamics in 2009/10 I suspect Rik should look to contest either a seat held by a retiring Tory MP or find a Lab/Con seat, as I suspect the mood will be more “anyone but Labour” thus presenting him with a more open goal than his tough fight in S&C.
215 - fighting the Lib Dems is always harder in the current context as they have no real record to defend and can promise and criticise anything they like. So on that level fighting Labour would be easier! I think I will have to see what seats come up for selection and in what order. I will probably apply for a safe seat or two to see if they want me! However I dont believe in applying to everything like some people do. I prefer to focus on a small number of seats I am really interested in.
David Cameron’s Conservative Party leadership ambitions have received a boost after a Tory whip quit to back his campaign.
Greg Barker resigned as a home affairs whip to support the young Tory hopeful.
His move comes just a day after shadow environment minister Oliver Letwin declared his support for Mr Cameron - seen as Michael Howard’s choice as successor.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=354580&in_page_id=1770
You’ve got to get back on the list yet Rik
222 - true! Do you think I will have a problem?
I am not going to say who Greg Barker reminds me of:
http://www.conservatives.com/UploadedFiles/GRAPHIC/PORTRAIT/barker_g.jpg
There’s going to be a big cull and a lot of people won’t be readmitted who think they will. I am sure your result was heartening enough, though. Did you get a decent report from Ian?
220 - good guess on my part. Where is on your list Rik? Reading W has to be a decent bet given your track record and a reasonable LD vote to squeeze?
224 - at last! Proof of the Conservative strategy - get the Chav vote. That Burberry tie is a dead giveaway …
And who does he remind you of (Apart from Rik)?
220. Are you thinking about London seats or even outside London?
224 - http://www.suttoncheamconservatives.com/
http://www.conservatives.com/UploadedFiles/GRAPHIC/PORTRAIT/barker_g.jpg
Separated at birth?
222 - Are Tory HQ going to drive Rik into the arms of the LibDems?
224 - And he is in the Territoral Army (unfortunately not quite daring as SAS…) so he can maybe snare some of DD’s natural TA MP supporters.
“And who does he remind you of (Apart from Rik)? ” Erm that is who he reminds me of (obviously Rik’s older, uglier and curly haired brother).
226.”Reading W has to be a decent bet given your track record and a reasonable LD vote to squeeze?”
Having a Libdems vote to squeeze could be something dangerous, because the other party could squueze it too.
A 11.1% majority is not that small. With an uniform swing the tories should 14% headed of Labour to win Reading West.
There are better seats to contest.
220 - Dont worry Rik at the next election no one will remember that we ever had a Tory Government or what it was like (except us anoraks).
231.”With an uniform swing the tories should 14% headed of Labour to win Reading West.”
ops, 8% headed, not 14%
229 - given his SDP “previous” that should perhaps be “back into the arms” - it would be a long road the prodigal would have walked down …
230
232 - so what have we had for the last 8 years Icarus? Its just been “rebranded”
230 - it says “has served in the TA” which implies to me that unlike Rik, who is currently a serving RAuxAF Officer Greg is no longer in the military. It doesn’t state his unit, though, so there is a (slim) chance that he could have been in 21 or 23 SAS like DD.
I have no doubt that Gordon Brown will lead his troops into the promised land of socialism, thus allowing the Tory party, if it is so minded or so lead, to reestablish itself as the party of the hard working chap instead of the nasty party only looking after the rich (copyright T May, Lord Ashcroft, etc etc.).
He has also served in the Territorial Army (HAC) and in 2003 completed the Armed Forces parliamentary scheme.
http://www.gregorybarker.com/biography.php
Grammar school boy as well.
Sorry used Soci@list - try again.
I have no doubt the Gordon will lead his troops into the soci@list promised land thus allowing the Tories to reestablish themselves as the party of the hard working chap. Clearly the Tories are keen to get rid of their image as the “nasty party appealing only to the rich” (copyright T May and M ashcroft) and will select candidates like Rik from the reasonable wing.
The only things that could possibly go wrong are that the Labour party might not vacate the centre or that the Tories would elect a leader who didn’t want voters from the centre. Which of these is likely?
236 - HAC, eh? Very swanky. I shall have to ask my second cousin about him! And he topped up his grammar school background by finishing off at Lancing - some interesting alumni I note: http://www.absoluteastronomy.com/encyclopedia/L/La/Lancing_College.htm
237 - surely you meant to write “Both of these are likely”?
Now that is a pretty interesting alumni, Mr Barker is definitely in good company.
http://www.gregorybarker.com/biography.php
“Gregory chats to the infants class of the new Bexhill High School during a fact finding visit to Uganda.”
Does the anti immigrant wing of his party know that he is recruiting primary school children in Uganda?
http://www.millenniumschools.co.uk/pub/tesnewsdayone/bexhill/k.html?1016037675
Keep that under your hats - if it gets out that tories are nice people then all my stereotypes will be ruined.
Hmm, I thought that “fact finding visits to Uganda” had rather less didactic connotations…
Unworthy - the man is cleary a saint - the new Mother Teresa perhaps.
I think Lord Gnome’s rate for reproducing the evidence - one way or the other - remains a bountiful £5
Icarus - since GB the man is on record as saying he wants GB the place to look more like the USA, I think we can discount any idea that he’s a soci*list…
247 - so he has no ambitions for NI then? Do we read anything into this?
I must, perhaps uncharacteristically, stand up for Rik in the face of these comparisons. I can’t imagine him in a Burberry tie.
144-And 64% did not vote for Labour!
144-And 64% did not vote for Labour!
Mr Smithson, why the SWing in your Cameron Sentiment? Vis my Post at 121.
238-I believe that it will be down to events in the next 2/3 years,since what was percieved as right wing ground/policies a few years,have all become mainstream Labour policies & is now regarded as the centre ground.
-Most elections are won or lost on the state of the economy.
-Tax fatigue may well have set in with the additional increases required due to the downturn of the economy & subsequent lower tax take,plus predicted escalaltion of council taxes.
-Unlike the recent election I would expect transport to be a key issue.
-What will be the effect of the erosion of wages primarily within the skilled/unskilled workforce with the arrivals from the new EU countries & their acceptance of lower wage rates.
-If the economy declines as predicted by most commentators, will the usual suspects start blaming it on our not having the €uro & thus reigniting this debate.
-In view of the many high expenditure programs (& accompaning budget overshoots) ID cards,Devolution,Regional Assemblies et al, maybe value for money/waste may be an issue.’Where has all the money gone’.
-Will we still have thousands of troops still in Iraq in a Vietnam type situation.
” - if it gets out that tories are nice people then all my stereotypes will be ruined”.
Don’t worry not much danger……talking of nice people I hear Michael Howard is supporting Cameron? Surely a nail in his coffin if ever there was one……But seriously can anyone imagine Cameron as a possible PM? I almost find it easier to imagine Charles Kennedy and that’s difficult. Nuala’s right; for all his faults at least Rifkind looks the part. Cameron looks like a school governer using it as a springboard for better things.
Oh Roger, and what was Blair’s nickname all those years ago when he first burst onto the Scene, Bambi? No gravitas, office gives you that.
AS for Rifkind, well i think it’s not so long ago you were slagging him off, while Cameron someone reminded you of your very favourable comments in May. Still you are consistent in one thing Tory baiting, although accusing them all of being BNP Members marked a new low of abuse from you……..
255. When did Roger accuse Tories being BNP members?
256 he suggested Tories should disband and join the BNP in post 136
Just spotted that. Those comments are a disgrace. That means he’s accusing me of wanting to evict my girlfriend and her family from the country. It’s this type of gutter comment that turns people off politics.
I usually ignore his ill informed rants, woody. It seems he has an amazing obsession with the Conservative Party.
259 - A bit like Rik and the Lib Dems ??
Now what have I missed while I have been grafting away at proper work today and not posting on here . Lots more of the same and similar on the Conservative leadership - still 5 months to go will not everyone be very bored by then . It seems that everyone is assuming that only MPs will have a vote but as far as I can see that has not been decided for certain yet . Can anyone answer when this will actually be sorted out and by whom .
The latest YouGov poll has an interesting response to a question about replacing Trident:
Britain’s existing nuclear-weapons system, Trident, is becoming obsolete and in a few years’ time will have to be phased out. In your view, which of the following should then happen?
The government should acquire a new nuclear-weapons system to replace Trident 26%
The same amount of money should be spent on strengthening Britain’s conventional armedforces 41%
Neither 16 %
Don’t know 16%
Any chance that one of the major parties will take the ‘common sense’ line on this ? It would certainly liven up the Tory leadership contest if one of the candidates suggested it.
261.”Any chance that one of the major parties will take the ‘common sense’ line on this ? ”
maybe the Libdems.
262. Can’t see the Lib Dems doing it. Keeping nuclear weapons was a totemic issue for those who left Labour for the SDP and later merged with the Liberals.
As always, the non-Tories on this site use the killer line: “I’d be happy with x”, where x is any Tory leadership (potential) candidate. Don’t ask me how but I managed to find myself in the middle of a LibDem branch meeting last night, and they all (yes, to a sandle-wearer) feared (in decending order) Clarke, Cameron, Davis. Davis, said one, will shore up the soft-Tory vote that they preyed on so well.
Incidentally, isn’t Green tipped to be Party Chairman under Davis? What would happen to Maude?
261 The common sense attitude IS to keep nuclear weapons. The UK would be crazy to give them up. Especially will terrorists looking to get them soon, and other countries getting them too. Iran will have them soon. And you want the UK to give them up?
261-263.
I forgot it.
SNP is against nuclear-weapons.
Are there some Labour MPs (Jeremy Corbyn doesn’t count) against keeping nuclear-weapons? If so how many?
264 NuLab are rooting for Davis too. Godsend for them.
I can’t understand why Tories won’t listen to what everyone is telling them.
Could be worse though, they could have gone for Redwood.
With Davis in tow, I think the UK can look to a 4th Labour government.
As I said in 264 I think there is a little bit of reverse phsycology going on here - so NuLab think Davis is their best bet for the 4th term? Come off it! Sounds like a good reason to back Davis to me!
268 If you think a gale of laughter and a thumbs up sign are reverse psychology, but NuLab think the only Tory that could win the next election is Ken Clarke.
I must say, as a LibDem, I think he’s our best bet too. No problems losing Tory Southerners with Davis. We might not even need to go more Liberal with him leading the Tories.
265. Not just me, but the majority according to this poll.
266. Most Labour MPs who have been in the party more than 20 years were opposed at one time. I would guess there are a few beyond the usual Campaign Group suspects who might argue against replacing Trident.
So Charylxena, does that mean the LibDems will be persuing Tory voters or Labour votesr next time? Because they sure can’t do both, as 2005 proved! If you chose Labour and go into 2009 with a soft-left agenda then I think the Tories could win it. Only by going back to being C-CRight could you knacker the Tory hopes.
261 etc - The problem with the question is that there is no pound figures given . Rather like asking if people want ID cards and cost will be 5 pounds will give one answer , 100 pounds another and 1,000 pounds a third .
241 We won’t need to budge an inch to get Soft Southerners back (but I remind you we only lost one seat net), if you elect Davis. NuLab won’t have to budge either. You will mop up a few UKIP and BNP, but they were never going to vote for us anyway, we wouldn’t want policies that they’d like.
Result= 4th NuLab term.
273. If the economy will start to suffer, Labour will lose voters no matter who the tory leader is and an hung Parliament will be likely.
264. Are there any non-Tories on this site?
258. I’m surprised you find my comments on Tory racism so offensive when I was finding a solution for Andy who said a Scotsman would be unacceptable to Tory voters in the South of England.
255. l I’m disappointed you think my Tory baiting has reached a new low. I’ll see if I can’t do better! It’s true I thought Cameron was OK but that was based on one table discussion on newsnight during the campaign. Now I’ve seen him several times I’d say he was lightweight and quite unengaging.
I am in Withington this week so I’m going to volunteer my services for a couple of days to the Lib Dems in Cheadle. Though I usually vote Labour this’ll be the third time I’ve given my time (and in one case my expertise) to the Lib Dems.
And may the best party win!
271 - 2005 did not prove anything of the sort . It did prove that you can do both and not lose heavily on one front . One interesting point is that whilst Conservatives have to persuade voters to change allegiance and vote for them to gain seats , the Lib Dems can gain seats from both parties by persuading voters who voted for them in the County Council Elections but for another party in the GE to do so in a GE . aT least those people at least have some attraction towards the party
273 I have said before I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion about Davis. I certainly think he’s one of the least attractive options on offer, and in my circle of Party friends I only know of one (two if you include Rik) who actually want to see him as leader.
273 having spent time on this site (and having seem Mike say the same), I think davis it is.
I think that’s unfortunate, because it’s bad for UK politics. NuLab have it all too easy. Davis seems to me to be the same as the others, only not as good.
“If he is so unpopular and lazy how come he is the front runner amongst MPs and running such an effective campaign?” - this re Davis from Rik (ages ago #175) -Think it just shows what a poor choice the tories have this time!
The twice rejected Davis isn’t a particularly inspiring possibility for leader but I reckon he just edges it over Cameron (if you exclude the other better possibilities). If, as someone said, things go seriously wrong for Nu-Lab Davis is someone the country COULD turn to as leader of an alternative government. I’m can’t see it with Cameron. Brown will just eat him and his old school tie for breakfast.
Well, I’m a gut anti-Tory and my only fear around Tobacco Ken leading the Stupid Party is that it might be really Stupid, and split. I’d sooner have a right-wing party that yearns for the centre ground in the way that adolescents yearn for “true lurve” (and with even less chance of success) than a populist political equivalent of Millwall fans…
279 - the whole point is that he ISNT lazy and he ISNT unpopular! His campaign proves this. It was just a smokescreen put up by some of his non-chums!
Geoff Hoon is flying a kite for compulsory voting: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4648095.stm . I wonder if this has been sanctioned from higher up.
I fear for the Lib Dem chances in Cheadle if Roger at 275 is offering them his ‘expertise’
Did anyone see Newsnight/ITN News to see a very young, long haired, be-kippered tied, Haguesque David Davies speaking at his first Tory conference in 1973. I can guarantee you it will be played over and over again if he wins - to general hilarity (and undermining his credibility with every play).
This is surely reason enough for those Tory who want to win next time to dump DD?
284. He would have been over 25 when making that speech. When Blair was that age, he was long haired and preparing to stand on a platform of withdrawing from the EU. Hardly damaged his career.
No I don’t think that speech in 1973 (before I was born…) will ruin his chances at all. I am surprised the David Davis speech was mentioned at all in Times this morning.
285 - you don’t have to go back nearly as far as that to embarrass certain Cabinet ministers. Even within my lifetime there’s plenty of mileage to be got from what, say, Hain and Hewitt said.
Come to that, Brown with his long hair in his student days hardly looks cool
289 - I thought Brown didn’t look too bad, it almost suited him. Alistair Darling with long hair on the other hand!
288 - Oh I don’t know, I think Brown in his student days look a lot cooler than he does now. BTW, I was surprised how under reported David Davis speech was.
[290] I beleive that the mother of regular PB.com contributor, Dan, has a marvellous picture of GB looking like a rather hirsuite Womble holding what appears to be a “Camberwell Carrot”- which he has clearly been inhaling.
I’ve seen worse people with long hair than Brown but he does look natrually scruffy. He’s had the same style of suit since labour came to office after all. Let’s not forget the next election is against Brown not Blair.
287 There’s plenty of mileage to be got from what they say now. lol Hain has to be the silliest Labour minister
271 - Tone, I think we as a party have moved away from this idea that there are “Tory voters” and “Labour voters” who temporarilly lend their support to the Lib Dems and then return to their “natural” party at some future date when times are more precipitous.
Now more than at any time for 80 odd years there is a “market” for votes; voter alleigances are weak and people are much more likely to “churn” between the 3 main parties, the “not voting” party and the smaller parties.
The name of the game now is to put your programme before the electorate who will as ever vote (or not bother) on the basis of a complex package of rational behaviour, gut feel, tribalism, perversity, local electoral dynamics, the price of fish, the weather, and whetehr that nice Mr Davis wears a funny coloured tie.
Rest assured that we will be going into 2009/10 with a Liberal programme and the other parties can do what they like.
Well Roger, in the 1998 local elections in Richmond upon Thames a voter went into a polling station and on teh way in said to the tellers “what will you be doing for us then”. Labour and Conservatives made general remarks, the Lib dem said “we will give the Jews buckets of water and make them get down on their knees and scrub the streets clean”
It received a lot of coverage as you can expect.
295 , Peter ….And the LibDems have mopped up the local council and the parliamentary seat since ?????????
No party can legislate for the loony tune element in their party. Ask the Tories in Falmouth or Labour in Brum !!
“….And the LibDems have mopped up the local council and the parliamentary seat since ?????????”
Isn’t Richmond a Conservative Council at the moment?
298 -”at the moment” is the operative word.
Most parties have some screening of candidates. Tellers can be pretty much anyone. Who was the Tory MP who made those terrible remarks about Leon Brittan? Best forgotten, I suppose…
Indeed it is, Sophia [297], although IIRC the ususally reliable Sean Fear has put the black spot upon it - it was Lib Dem in 1998, though.
Tabman [294] threatens we will be going into 2009/10 with a Liberal programme - is this supposed to be different from the past, and if so, how?
297 - It is although a couple of local council by-elections indicate it may swing back.
Tellers are a bit of a law unto themselves. I can see why returning officers often try to discourage them (although it is annoying). I like the way they frequently don’t support the party they are telling for but just do it because they always have - I have met quite a few ex-Tories in particular who carry on telling because they don’t have the heart to tell their local organiser that they won’t do the 2pm-3pm slot this year but haven’t actually voted Conservative since 1992.
295 - without knowing too much about the incident, the most interesting thing is that it appears that this particular teller - presumably a member of the party, or at leats a suuporter - appears to believe that this is the sort of thing the Lib Dems stand for. It makes you wonder a) how he latched onto the Lib Dems, and b) how widespread this sort of thing is.
What does IIRC mean?
urban myth anyone?
IIRC - If I Remember Correctly it is one of those daft acronmys to confuse us!
303 - Thanks - suddenly the world makes much more sense.
If I Recall Correctly
301 - or it means that they have a peculiar and rather tasteless sense of humour.
Last Tory teller I spoke to said she was in favour of nationalising the railways!
307 - Sophia???
Perhaps Mike will link this site: http://www.geocities.com/eedd88/abbreviations.html?20055
Gosh, I am not alone!
307 - that is indeed out of line with official Tory party policy, but I would submit that it is less out of line than enforced street scrubbing by Jewish people is with official Lib Dem policy.
Having said that, I genuinely wouldn’t be that surprised if Rik pointed me to an obscure policy motion proposed by the Oadby and Wigston local party from the 1990 Social and Liberal Democrat (remember them?) conference which notes it as “an option” if approved by a local referendum.
310 - Ah … but we can always bring out in retaliation the minutes of the Bournemouth Branch of the SDP (dated 1988) in which our hero (membership number 555) is found to argue in favour of the introduction of STV in candidate selection!
Re: 295 & 301: I’ve done plenty of telling in my time - usually opposite a Tory and for the most part it’s been very pleasant. What I do find interesting is the different ways tellers act in different parts of the country.
As I understand the rules, tellers are not supposed to communicate directly with the voters except to either show them the way in or to ask for a polling number on the way out. In London, that is very strictly enforced - it’s often difficult to get numbers from people and consequently knocking-up tends to be haphazard.
On May 5th I worked in St Ives in Cornwall. Down there, the culture is very different. As the tellers are usually local people, the voters know them. Indeed, the voters are so well-behaved they tell you their polling numbers on the way in. Telling is a doddle and knocking-up very much more accurate.
I imagine the Presiding Officers know what is going on and they come out to have a word - usually bringing a coffee and biscuits. It’s not a bad life! You do need a good book - a 60% turnout in a Polling District with barely 1,000 electors still makes for a quiet couple of hours.
I find it curious that at a time when postal balloting has been so discredited, people get irate about the behaviour of tellers. I’ve suffered verbal abuse from electors in London who believe they know more about electoral practice than I do. They won’t accept I’m allowed to ask for their polling number.
I sometimes tell the angry ones about the marked register so we all know WHO has voted - that usually shuts them up. I really think some of them believe the marked register tells us who people have voted for. I find the general ignorance about elections and democracy among people frightening.
If, and would submit a big IF, ever said I would bet it was a Jewish teller.
Not sure if it has been covered on this thread, but Davis has already seen off one challenger. His Lib Dem opponent in Haltemprice & Howden at the last two elections, Jon Neal, has told his local party he is not interested in standing again.
It was the voter who was Jewish. I recollect he was a cab driver.
The point is all parties acquire some wild eccentrics (and many contribute to this site)
I could go back to the Orpington by election, which was 1962 and teh Conservative candidate was one Peter Goldman. Liberal campaigners made much of him coming from “the eadt end” (he had fought a West Ham seat in 1959, but that was it) and whether he would be able to go to civic services in churches.
My overall point to Roger is that if he scratched the surface he could well dispatch a lot of people from any number sof parties into the fringes of the BNP or whatever.
Hotfoot from a wet and dismal Cheadle (I can’t imagine why so many rich people choose to live in a place without a decent restaurant for miles) to report a personal tally of four Lib Dem converts. One from “When’s the election anyway?” and three from “Weren’t going to bother”. Actually I just called on some friends who live in the constituency.
No-one seems in the least bit interested but the result doesn’t seem to be in doubt. It’s not a very large area but I couldn’t find anybody who had anything to do with the election. Where’s Charlie when you want him? I might not be a good judge but I’d say a wery low turnout.
Dan at 284. Thanks for your support!
Peter at 315. I agree you get ‘nutters’ in every party but a Conservative office holder who can say words to the effect that ‘Southern tories wouldn’t vote for a Scot’ without any recognition that this isn’t a healthy state of affairs doesn’t hint to me of a rosy Tory future!
Roger at 316 - this sounds like we’re going back to the ‘cheese’ thread - but there are many good places to eat there - particularly there are a few near Cheadle parish church, but there are others scattered around the place. (Were you canvassing in Bramhall? I can’t think of anywhere decent to eat in Bramhall.) My parents are enthusiastic about their food and seem to eat out well just about every weekend.
And as for wet and dismal, I can’t begin to imagine what you mean. It never rains in the northwest of England. Finest climate in Europe.
if you elect Davis… You will mop up a few UKIP and BNP, but they were never going to vote for us anyway, we wouldn’t want policies that they’d like.
Some people (particularly the media) seem to think David Davis is an extreme rightwinger who flogs his children. This is the same Davis who is opposed to Id cards? who voted for a fully elected Lords? The hardliner who according to Wikipedia: “When the gay Conservative MP Michael Brown was pictured on holiday with a 20-year-old man (when the age of consent was still 21), Davis’s reaction was to drive to Brown’s home to help. Brown was quoted in the Sunday Telegraph as saying of Davis “He took care of me and got me through it when Michael Portillo and others ran 10,000 miles in the opposite direction.”?
Having said that, if DD is continually portrayed as extreme by the media, it may be better to choose Cameron (who is portrayed as kind to old ladies).
Result= 4th NuLab term.
Comment by Charyxena
if you elect Davis… You will mop up a few UKIP and BNP, but they were never going to vote for us anyway, we wouldn’t want policies that they’d like.
Some people (particularly the media) seem to think David Davis is an extreme rightwinger who flogs his children. This is the same Davis who is opposed to Id cards? who voted for a fully elected Lords? The hardliner who according to Wikipedia: “When the gay Conservative MP Michael Brown was pictured on holiday with a 20-year-old man (when the age of consent was still 21), Davis’s reaction was to drive to Brown’s home to help. Brown was quoted in the Sunday Telegraph as saying of Davis “He took care of me and got me through it when Michael Portillo and others ran 10,000 miles in the opposite direction.”?
Having said that, if DD is continually portrayed as extreme by the media, it may be better to choose Cameron (who is portrayed as kind to old ladies).
John. I don’t know Cheadle too well. But The village had just a few Chinese that I could see and in Bramhall the same. I know a good one in Hazel Grove but that seemed like cheating. And my hosts seemed to think I was better heading back to Didsbury! I don’t know where you are but it’s pretty wet today……As you say back to the cheese thread……
Re. 273, not meaning to rub salt into sore wounds, but the LD net loss of seats to the Tories was not one, but two (five lost, three gained). In the south, it was a net loss of three (four lost, one gained).
Re. 312, what an idyllic contrast to my last (and I mean the last) time I was a teller - the presiding officers at no 1 polling station Cheddleton are so surly and officious they wouldn’t p*ss in your mouth if your tongue was on fire, never mind bringing out coffee and biscuits (I gave up telling after being thrown out of the polling station for helping a disabled person in a wheelchair - this was deemed to be ‘obstruction’ - they then made the Tory teller and I stand out on the steps in a hailstorm).
Funny how Roger at 275, takes one comment by one person to suggest all are racists. Mr Smithson, Mark Senior, even Nick Palmer et al are no less passionate in their Party Allegiances, but you surely are the only one who really just wants to bait rather than debate. I’ve actually been informed by other viewpoints on here Roger. Your ears evidently are turned to Stoner.
Funny how Roger at 275, takes one comment by one person to suggest all are racists. Mr Smithson, Mark Senior, even Nick Palmer et al are no less passionate in their Party Allegiances, but you surely are the only one who really just wants to bait rather than debate. I’ve actually been informed by other viewpoints on here Roger. Your ears evidently are turned to Stoner.
Apologies l. Actually I don’t hold very strong party political allegiancies but I have been anti-Tory since the ’80’s. And once you’ve got it it’s difficult to kick!
Ok Roger now for Scotland. The last English person to represent a Scottish constituency was a guy called George Machin (Labour) and the Nats had him out in 1974. There are numerous scots representing english consituencies whose results seem little different to their neighbours.
In 2000 I moved from one side of London to the other swopping one MP originally from Glasgow for another. Indeed the London borough I live in is represented by two Scots.
Contrast that with what the English put up with in Scotland.
There could be a point if at the next election all party leaders were Scottish, however who knows who will be leader of any of the parties at the next election.
Noting you turned in the 80s you obviously had a great time in the winter of 1979-80 and certainly never endured Lambeth, Brent, Islington, Haringey or Camden under the inspired leadership of the legendary London Labour Left.
Re. 316, and Iain Bowen’s comment in another thread: my impression (albeit based upon a fairly small amount of canvassing) was also that Cheadle looks pretty solid for the Lib Dems — based both upon number of supporters and upon vituperativeness of such Tories as I came across.
Our resident Scottish Nationalist (not seen recently) has expressed the view that the English won’t vote for a Scot. He sees a Gordon Brown premiership as the route to the promised land
The English will vote for a Scot (as seen by the numerous MPs of English seats who are Scots). What may be problematic for a labour prime minister who represents a scottish consituency is what happens when the majority of MPs in England are Tories. It will become a bit of a nightmare.
On the question of Scottish leaders, has anyone studies whether a party does better in region A when the party’s leader comes from that region - say did the Tories do better in 2001 in Yorkshire than elsewhere, or has Labour done better in the north east since Tony Blair became leader?
326 - To be fair I think there are a number of English MSP’s (allthough none amongst the Tories). My local (South of Scotland) SNP MSP, Christine Graham, was I think born in England.
Having said that it is hard to imagine an English person as First Minister. Allthough had Mike Rumbles defeated Nicol Stephen for the leadership of the Scottish Lib Dems we would have had an English Deputy First Minister.
Come to think of it - Tony Blair is Scottish isn’t he? I think he was born in Edinburgh and his childhood divided between Edinburgh and Durham.
332 - I doubt he really considers himself Scottish. Without meaning to come across like Norman Tebbit, I wouldn’t have thought he supports us at football. More importantly I doubt he wants to see England lose at everything (except Cricket where quite a few Scots support the English team).
330 - well the Tories did quite well in Wales this time. Does that count?
Nu-Tories anthem: http://sniff.numachi.com/~rickheit/dtrad/pages/tiTHENGLSH.html
332 -Australia too, ISTR reading once. Could be wrong.
326 - I seem to remember Mike Rumbles, the Lib Dem MSP who unsuccessfully stood as leader against Nicol Stephen a few weeks ago, got sent a couple of (thankfully) very ineffectual letter bombs by the Scottish National Liberation Army a while ago because he had the cheek to have been brought up in Durham. Although, nutters aside, it has not obviously harmed his electoral prospects (I think he is a constituency rather than top-up MSP).
330 - Howard and Kennedy both did much better in their own respective regions in 2005 (in terms of increase in vote share). The same is true of Hague and Kennedy in 2001. Blair did worse in 2001 and 2005 but better in 1997 and his worse performance in the later years may just be that, starting from a very high base in the region, Labour has had more votes to lose. How much of it has to do with the leaders I do not know - Scotland may be more down to the credibility of being in government there rather than Kennedy while the Tories did well in the South East but actually a bit disappointingly in Kent - Howard’s own seat aside!
288. I want to see a young Gordon Brown with long hair….there are photos somewhere?
320.”He took care of me and got me through it when Michael Portillo and others ran 10,000 miles in the opposite direction”
Better not ask in which way he took care of him….
337.”the Tories did well in the South East but actually a bit disappointingly in Kent - Howard’s own seat aside! ”
They were deceived by Bob Marshall Andrews. He gave great hopes with his predictions and then….. the face of that poor tory candidate in Medway when he realized that Bob held his seat….
Re. 326, are you sure? John Maxton (brought up in Oxfordshire) represented Glasgow Cathcart from 1979 (winning it from the Glaswegian Teddy Taylor) until 2001. Then there was Tony Worthington in Clydebank and Milgavnie from 1987 until 2005. There’s also Rachel Squire in Glenrothes (elected originally for Dunfermline West in 92).
339: ‘Milngavie’ (pronounced ‘Mill-GUY’, of course; the town where I spent my first 21 years, as it happens); also Rachel Squire now sits for Dunfermline & West Fife. Other Anglos you could have mentioned include Malcolm Bruce (Gordon, in its various manifestations, from 1983 to the present), Norman Godman (Greenock & Port Glasgow, latterly Greenock & Inverclyde, from 1983 to 2001) and Jeremy Bray (Motherwell & Wishaw - sometimes known as Motherwell South - during the ’70s, ’80s and ’90s).
328. I’m not sure Braveheart’s got his finger on the Scottish pulse and anyway we were excluding nutters
338 - Andrea: Gordon Brown with long hair
329. It is practically impossible for the Tories to be the majority party in England (262+ seats) without there being a hung parliament, so the question is hypothetical.
342. I feared for the worse, but he was good looking.
Re. 340, the LDs could do worse than Malcolm Bruce for leader. In fact, alongside Andrew George (if he wanted the job), he’d be a very good stopgap between Charles Kennedy and Nick Clegg. Better either of those two than Hughes, Oaten or Opik
344.”I feared for the worse”
ops, it should be the “worst”…
btw, if the tory want a “macho figure” to lead them, they need to choose Dr Fox.
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/politics/story/0,6903,1520164,00.html
Sinlge sex schools, “strong male models” and army cadet-type schemes. All very macho.
And Cameron with his comments about over-sexualised videos and TV. I read he’s a “Desperate Housewives”’s fan, but does he consider it “over-sexualised”?
And then is British Tv so sexualised to have be concerned about (maybe parents shoulg take care of their children better and not let them see some shows)?
295 et al, some years ago I was sitting next to a lady at a Monday Club dinner who turned to me and said casually “Of course, my husband and I have never liked Jews at all, but we both agree that Michael Howard is a fine Home Secretary.” I have to admit that I was amused by her automatic assumption that I would be on the same wavelength as her. As far as I can recall, that’s the only example of anti-semitism I’ve come across in the Conservative Party, although other people have experienced the odd dubious comment (along the lines of Harold Macmillan’s remark about Estonians and Etonians). Basically, it’s a relic of the old drawing room anti-semitism ( a form of snobbery) which has virtually died out.
The more hardline anti-semitism is found on the far Left these days, and among their Islamist allies.
347 , Sean . I think you’ll find those paragons of tolerance and diversity in the BNP, and their fellow travellers, don’t fall over themselves in admiration of our Jewish brethren .
I don’t doubt that plenty of BNP members privately detest Jews, although they find it politic to play it down. The hard Left don’t even feel the need to play it down, though (and in the case of Robert Jackson, the not so hard Left.)
349 , Sean . Whether the prejudice is open or concealed matters not . Through the Holocaust period the silent masses of Germans who approved of and supported the Nazis and their genocide are as guilty as the architects of such evil .
Both the BNP and the multitude of far left anti-semites are simply different sides of the coin of baseness and depravity.
316-Maybe there was advance warning of your planned trip to Cheadle?
“Both the BNP and the multitude of far left anti-semites are simply different sides of the coin of baseness and depravity. ”
Quite right.
Going back to the picture at the top of this thread, it reminds me of the Yes Minister Episode in which Hacker was warned to ensure that if he was photographed with an animal, it ought to be a lamb. Anything else risked captions like “A Meeting of the Inner Cabinet.”
Sound advice Sean! One wonders who aso advised him to wear a white shirt on a farm - surely tweeds or a barbour would have been more appropriate?
I think Cameron is in with a chance as the ’stop Davis’ candidate. But this seems to sum up the Tories problem - their last four leaders have been a ’stop someone else’ candidate. To progress they need to start to be for someone (and something) - maybe Davis is the best choice as he is clearly a ‘for’ rather than ‘against’ candidate. I don’t agree with the ‘for’ - but it’s a far better position to be in to define your politics in your own terms rather than someone else’s.
Dan [353] - exactly what the fringes of both left and right have been doing for years…
Good to be home. Long flight, jet lag, ugh.
To quote Churchill, the very length of this thread guards it well against he risk of being read!
I wonder if my fellow Conservatives - Sophia, Sean Fear and John O et al, would be willing to disclose which of the likely contenders they would each prefer for leader, purely for my own edification. Rik seems to be for David Davis, and I think Max has said he supports David Cameron. Andy didn’t say who he was for but that he would prefer someone other than Davis. Of course, I have made no secret of my support for Cameron. Always useful to know where everyone stands, I think.
Welcome back AHM, save the long threads for the jet-lag insomniac nights.
“Andy didn’t say who he was for but that he would prefer someone other than Davis”
I think he said he prefers Fox.
356 - Thanks for the sage advice as always, BV. I managed to read all of Tim Renton’s book ‘Chief Whip’ on the return flight alone. Been meaning to get to it for ages! Superbly written and highly recommended for anyone who hasn’t and is looking for some good insider writing. Onto a book about the recent Papal Election next!
355-David Davis
To be honest, AHM, I haven’t decided yet. Or rather, I’ve decided there are some who, for a variety of reasons, would not be suitable (Tim Yeo, Michael Ancram, Andrew Lansley, Kenneth Clarke) but have got no further.
O/T: Tim Renton - that reminds me how amusing we found it that Renton’s nephew (another old Etonian) used to be the leader of the SWP students at my university (donkey jacket, loud hailer & all). I think thankfully for Renton Snr he was more or less out of the limelight by then.
Any other (politically) embarrassing relatives? Young Straw seems to have followed dad in turning from firebrand to establishment figure. I’m not sure whether Tony or Hilary Benn is more embarrassed about the other, though …
358 - I am also undecided as it depends on whom the choice would be between. Unlike in previous contests when I knew I would definitely prefer Michael Portillo, I am leaning towards Dr Fox, however my concerns remain that he may lose support by being Scottish (Sorry Roger, just the way it is). This may in part be mitigated by the fact he sits for an English seat.
If the choice was Brown-Kennedy-Fox at the next election, two of those options would see a Prime Minister elected by people over whom huge tranches of legislation would have no effect.
In this scenario, an English Democrat type party might drum up even more support at Westminster elections than the UKIP ever managed to.
347 - Sean, I’d have thought she’d expect fellow Monday Club diners to be on the same wavelength….
Macmillan does seem to have haboured anti-Semitic thoughts. Take his comments on a young Gerald Kaufman in 1955 (not in his published diaries):
“Our opponent at Bromley was a rather unpleasant youth called Kaufman - very Semitic. The little mayor, by way of being friendly after the poll said, ‘Well, we’re all Anglo-Saxon here, so let’s shake hands in the Anglo-Saxon way!’ This was very well received.”
“All is not rosy in the Lib Dem garden: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=354426&in_page_id=1770 ”
The Mail on Sunday (and Dominic Turnbull in particular) moved away from Kennedy’s honeymoon. Now they’re busy with Mandelson’s internet connection:
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article.html?in_article_id=402142&in_page_id=2
gambling online Heh. How it goes? Buy it all. ASAP. Last discount in your live (AAAAA!!!!!). Take a rest.
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