How dangerous is Cheadle for Charlie?
July 9th, 2005
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Could the by-election determine his future?
With the build-up to the Olympic decision and the London bombs we’ve not really looked at the position of Charles Kennedy who only last week had to warn his fellow MPs about the whispering campaign against him.
This was followed by last weekend’s Mail on Sunday investigation about the alleged “upgrades” he got on his honeymoon - though the very idea behind the story that somebody should think that the leader of the Liberal Democrats is worth influencing is the best news the party has had in weeks!
The latest move - on the day of the bombings - from the Lib Dem youth wing saying that even Lib Dem supporters “laugh” at the idea of him becoming Prime Minister looks really problematical. On another news day this could have been a bigger story.
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The hard question is what would Kennedy’s future be if the Cheadle by-election goes horribly wrong? What result does he need to fight off the critics?
Certainly losing the seat would be very damaging. But what about a reduced majority which we think is the most likely outcome. Could that be used as a stick to beat him?
Whatever this is really dangerous time for the former TV presenter. The betting, in what remains a very light market, continues to move against the party. If there was a lot of confidence on the ground then activists would start to have a punt even at the current level of 2/7.
Mike Smithson
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A loss might be damaging. In light of this weeks events, a rising Labour vote might be put down as a reason, so even a loss could pass as “understandable, considering…”
I hope Charlie stays right where he is, though I rather doubt endorsements from old Tories like me will do his cause much good among his party faithful.
We need to hold it - but any hold will be seen as a success, whatever the majority. We pretty much see the 2005 general election majority as a sympathy vote for Patsy Calton - we’ll measure our success against her 33-vote 2001 majority, and in that context a win on a coin toss will get us throwing our hats in the air.
When your party is in government or the principal opposition, elections make it rather obvious how long you should stay on. But for a party like the Lib Dems with no serious prospect of electoral victory, it’s much harder to say just when their leader should go. But it’s worth noting that Paddy Ashdown fought two elections before deciding it was time to step down - and that even after making the largest gains for the party in living memory. Has Kennedy won the right to go on to a third?
And frankly it has to be said that in the last few elections the Lib Dems have picked up people of an entirely new calibre. It’s no wonder people like that are wary of serving under people like Charles Kennedy and Matthew Taylor.
The article in the student magazine was pretty worthless - typical “one the one hand… on the other… ” student journalism loose talk. I pretty much threw the thing across the room when I read it, not because I am an absolutist Kennedy loyalist, but at the idiocy of publishing it in an official organ. What did they think was going to happen?
In the long run, might it not be in the Lib Dems’ best interests to lose? Especially if the next by-election came along with the Tories under new leadership, and they thrashed them…
Well, you never know, but it tends to be a dangerous game deciding it might be better to lose…
I note that the latest Yougov poll shows a big rise in Blair’s approval rating. That may have an impact on Cheadle.
8. Isn’t it normal that after winning an election the PM’s approval rating goes up?
I f not Charlie then who? Don’t sack your present Leader unless you have a better Alternative in mind. If you end up with Simon Hughes you really will commit hart kiri.
I like a good Joke as much as anyone, but did anyone else feel Guido’s usually good taste deserted him with his remark linking the London Bombs with the Rainbow Warrior for the purpose of making a remark about the French?
Despite what people on this site seem to be suggesting my sense is that Cheadle is a runaway victory for the Lib Dems. Charlie K is another matter and I’ll be very surprised if he lasts the year. People seem to think he’s OK but not someone to be taken too seriously. As a reasonably decent person he’s able to pick up the disaffected but he’s not the person to lead an aspiring governing party into a bright new tomorrow…..
PS. I was wrong. There are a few nice restaurants in Cheadle.
12.”As a reasonably decent person he’s able to pick up the disaffected but he’s not the person to lead an aspiring governing party into a bright new tomorrow…..”
Do the Libdems aspire to rule UK? I thought they aspired to be the official opposition and not the ruling party.
“I was wrong. There are a few nice restaurants in Cheadle.”
Chirac disagrees!
“The latest move - on the day of the bombings - from the Lib Dem youth wing saying that even Lib Dem supporters “laugh” at the idea of him becoming Prime Minister looks really problematical. ”
They’re fighting the tories in Cheadle. So they should ask voters what they think about having Howard as PM. The reaction could be worse than a laugh.
“They’re fighting the tories in Cheadle. So they should ask voters what they think about having Howard as PM. The reaction could be worse than a laugh. ”
Ah but Howard is standing down, Kennedy isn’t.
But they wouldn’t asak that question would they Andrea, because the voters there know Howard will be gone in a few months, and they can vote as they desire particularly Labour with no risk of a Tory Govt as at the Genereal ElectioN. Who knows Roger maybe right, but i would say those factors along with a much reduced turnout are enough to inject uncertainty.
Ps must add condolences to the victims on Thursday. I use Aldgate and Aldgate East for my Studies and was going in that day. If i’d gone in a few hours earlier, i doubt i’d be posting this now. Makes you stop and think that Sort of thing.
14. but the Libdems aren’t aspiring to win a General Election at the moment and so someone like Kennedy is ok for them.
I think everyone has forgotten who leads the Tory party. That might yet save them from a complete wipeout in Cheadle.
Cheadle is very gentle suburbia. Michael Howards brand of Toryism would not go down well. It’s about as far from Chingford as it’s possible to be. It’s a surprisingly nice place with nice friendly people. The London bomb doesn’t seem to have registered much. I’m not really looking forward to going back next week. Not because of any worries about bombs-I’ve heard three in my lifetime-but because when the dust settles I think it’ll become quite gloomy evben though I’m told that’s not the mood at the moment.
18. If the Libdems will hold Cheadle, you could move there to live.
OT: but in the Kennedy’s photo at the top of this thread, it seems that Charlies has no lips.
19 - very true Andrea. His mouth could actually pass as a wrinkle
A rumour going around our office this morning saying that Tories have had to withdraw their latest leaflet due to serious allegations.
Re leaflets in Cheadle. As a Tory I’m not much a fan of the stuff we are putting out (it’s all mainly focussed on the fact that our candidate lives inside Cheadle constituency) but to be honest the Lib Dems are getting their knickers in a twist because they are getting a taste of their own medicine!
Lib Dems are the dirtiest campaigners around so their empty threats of legal action that they made yesterday are just trying to garner support.
Remember, at the general election in Cheadle the Lib Dems put out a RED leaflet that looked exactly like labour leaflets and wrote on it The Labour party accepts that Labour can’t win so you should vote for the Lib Dems. If that isn’t underhand i don’t know what is…
“at the general election in Cheadle the Lib Dems put out a RED leaflet that looked exactly like labour leaflets ”
Is Labour still using red leaflets? I thought since New Labour’s arrival they were using pink leaflets to show they’re moderate centrist.
Have to say Charlie seems pretty unassailable as leader. Looking at the popularity ratings of all 3 main leaders at the last election Charlie was the only one to come put with a positive rating. Granted the baby helped but he’s still about the only party leader people actually trust. There is simply no movement against him within the party and I can see him going in his own time, whether that’s before or after the next election.
The student attack on him can be pretty much dismissed really. Having served on the National committee of the Lib Dems youth wing many years ago you get to appreciate how many ‘loose cannons’ there actually are at that level and are not to be taken seriously.
It’s an unfortunate fact of life that in youth and student politics you get a great many people who are really not committed to their own party. You only have to look at Peter Hain – Young Libs leader in the 1970’s and Danny Finkelstein - Young Social Dems Leader in the 1980’s to see how allegiances change rapidly. Shame theres no way to place a bet on the author of this attack on Charlie K moving to another party within the next 12 months.
Robj @ 24 Fair points Rob and nice try, but it can’t just be brushed off as a ’student thing’.
Welcome to the big, bad debilitating world of leadership crises with all the backstabbing nastiness it brings with it
It’s enough to make a cynical Tory smile !
Re. 3, apart from any sympathy vote, there was probably also an element of first term incumbent’s bonus (although those other LD MPs defending their 2001 gains for the first time, Sue Doughty and Matthew Green, didn’t enjoy this).
It is the most crazy and annoying thing that LDYS are so inconsiderate that they publish what is probably their first really hard hitting piece in ‘Free Radical’ just before Cheadle. Of course there are some people who dislike Kennedy, but nobody is briefing against him or demanding publically that he go very soon.
LDYS are constantly getting the party into trouble- abolish the morarchy motions at conference etc. They need to be brought under control, and after all it can’t be that hard since it is run from Cowley Street!
Re Cheadle- from what I hear, local papers are covering the Tory problems with legal action and slogans such as ‘Living Here’ which the Lib Dems hav spun to say they are inappropriate after the death of Patsy Calton. The Tory campaign seems to be full of close to the nuckle literature and general mistakes in a contest where they need to be careful.
26.”, apart from any sympathy vote, there was probably also an element of first term incumbent’s bonus ”
Does the first term incumbency effect work only for MPs who are defending a seat gained in the previous election or for all the new MPs elected for the first time in the previous election (even if the come from the same party of the retering MP)?
I hope the question is clear.
27 Tim. Can you expand on the context around ‘Living here’ please.
I genuinely don’t know what it is you are refering to and can’t believe that anything would be done in as bad taste as you are hinting at.
26: Worked for Norman Lamb in North Norfolk, though!
28: The thing about first term incumbancy for most Lib Dem MPs (though clearly not all) is the credibility boost it gives them. There’s always a section of voters who would vote Lib Dem if they thought the party had a chance, but don’t because they think it doesn’t. When faced with the fact of a Lib Dem MP, rather than the claims of a Lib Dem challenger, the ‘wasted vote’ argument melts away for them. Hence the increased majority.
As for alternative leaders, I don’t think there’s anyone senior enough to replace CK at them moment, and I don’t honestly think there’s any need to. A new leader won’t suddenly get more news coverage, and is unlikely to be any more popular in the country.
The best thing that can happen for the party, leadership-wise, at the moment is that Kennedy keeps us moving forward in baby steps until the new generation of MPs are ready to take over. Then while Laws, Huhne and Clegg are knocking chunks out of each other for the succession, Lynne Featherstone stages a coup.
You read it here first :o)
It wasn’t done to be in bad taste I don’t believe- Stephen Day, in reference to the fact that the Lib Dem doesn’t live in the seat, changed the ‘winning here’ on the Lib Dem signs to ‘living here’ as his slogan, but of course didn’t think of the offence it may cause in a by-election caused by a tragic death.
The Lib Dems made a thing of it. I read an article featuring it, but I can’t find it at the moment!
Re. 28, yes your question is clear. No, I’d say a bit of both - David Laws held Yeovil for the LDs in 2001, and he saw his majority (cut sharply compared with Paddy Ashdown’s in 97) increase on May 5th.
The LDs (and their forerunners, the Liberal Party) used to have great difficulty passing seats on from retiring MPs to new candidates (as in 1987, when the retirements of Wainwright and Ross cost the Liberal Party Colne Valley and the Isle of Wight) but in 2001 all the new candidates managed to hold onto the seats for which they were selected - ironically, the two LD losses were by first-term incumbents (which just serves to confirm my earlier comments about exceptions to the rule).
One of those exceptions to the rule was in Taunton, widely tipped here and on the other side as a likely LD gain. Adrian Flook narrowly gained the seat in 01, but lost it in 05, when the widely disliked LD MP he defeated in 01, Jackie Ballard, didn’t stand again, but was replaced by Jeremy Browne (highly regarded by people in all parties).
Jackie Ballard, though, (disliked even by quite a few of the LDs here IIRC) just goes to show there’s such a thing as a first-term incumbent’s albatross effect.
30-Surely the fact that the Liberals never have to defend a record in national government (apart from the shambles of the Lib/Lab pact in the late 70’s that they hope everyone has now forgotten about) is a major help to the incumbant & when either the Labour or Tory parties are unpopular it is the natural party for a protest vote, for those that prefer to cast a vote as oppossed to abstaining.
Re. my earlier post about Taunton, I’d say it’s half an exception to the rule. The closeness of the result (when Jeremy Browne was widely regarded as an enormous improvement on Jackie Ballard, and considering the narrow margin by which the widely disliked Ballard lost in 01) probably reflects a certain following for Flook. Certainly, on at least one radio programme, I heard, quite a few people in Taunton thought the seat was lucky to be contested by such a good MP and such a good challenger (or, as one person said, unlucky when it was a shame one of them had to lose).
32. I think that new MPs in seats already held by their parties could receive a first term incumbency effect, because they could build a sort of personal vote during their first 4/5 years as MPs.
34. what did this poor on Jackie Ballard do to be so disliked?
John @ 33 I thgink you are overlooking that in Scotland the Lib Dems ARE a part of the government and the swing to them there was more marked than the rest of the country.
36. For one thing, she stood for the party leadership as a first-term MP.
I think that research suggests that newly-elected MPs do get a bonus at the following elections (which then subsequently declines), whether or not they’ve captured the seat, but common sense suggests the effect would be greater if they’ve ‘broken through’ rather than merely followed on.
Talking of LibDem tricks, I remember one very ingenious one that annoyed me a lot at the time. I was the Labour candidate for East Sussex and South Kent in 1994 (when the Euros were FPTP), and the LibDems were trying to persuade the electorate (correctly, as it turned out) that they were the main challengers to the Tories there. So they took a half-page ad in the local rag, with an apparently independent article by “Political commentator George Bennett” entitled “Liberal Democrats close behind Tories”: the article went into judicious detail about why this was so, and why Labour had no chance. Then they had an inset box in the ad which was *ostentatiously* from the LibDems, saying “Vote LibDem for a better future” or the like, and THAT one was headed “ADVERTISEMENT” in large letters, so that the reader would think that the rest wasn’t an advert.
No national paper would have tolerated it, and if there had been more interest in the election a backlash would have resulted as other papers took up the story, but as it was just an ad in a local free paper they got away with it.
To be fair, this was in retaliation for a leaflet from me which purported to demonstrate, debatable bar chart and all, that Labour was in second place. So with the perspective of hindsight I guess it was poetic justice. Anyway the Tories won the seat as usual so we both got our just deserts!
Re. 36, Andrew Roth (I think) said that she had a knack of turning doubters into opponents. I’ve also read that Charles Kennedy was less than distraught at her ejection from the Commons.
It almost appears that some of the Lib Dem posters are making excuses already for losing the seat, if they do it would be disastrous for them, I don’t think they will but I took a tremendous drubbing on the South Staffs result – every bet down.
What will be interesting is if the Labour tactically voting Lib Dem voter decides to keep on with this tactic or reverts back to Labour – I know I would but I’m not typical. It appears Patsy Calton had a large personal vote so again will be interesting if this disappears – I don’t think it will.
My thoughts on CK are well known one of the few things myself & Mike Smithson agree on, whilst the Lib Dems are associated with the Muslim community I think it is to early to talk of a back-lash – depends on the background of the bombers when they are caught.
39.”I think that research suggests that newly-elected MPs do get a bonus at the following elections (which then subsequently declines)”
In your pre-election posts about your cnavassing experience, you mentioned more than once that some voters said that they were going to vote for you, because you helped them in various occasions. I suppose that if you’ll stand down in the future, some of these people could vote for another party, because they were voting for you and not for the Labour party.
So a new MP could build a personal vote between his first election and the second one and keeping it until he’s MP.
“common sense suggests the effect would be greater if they’ve ‘broken through’ rather than merely followed on.”
MPs who gained their seat from another party in 2001 and their 2005 result:
Jim Knight (Labour, Dorset West): a 0.3% majority in 2001; 3.7% in 2005
Albert Owen (Labour, Ynys Mon): 2.4% in 2001; 3.5% in 2005
Patrick Mercer (Con, Newark): 9% in 2001; 14,1% in 2005
Andrew Turner (con, Isle of Wight): 4.5% in 2001; 19.4% in 2005
Andrew Rosindell (Con, Romford): 16.7% in 2001; 31.8% in 2005
Adrian Flook (Con, Taunton): 0.4% in 2001; LOST in 2005 (Libdems by 1%)
Angela Watkinson (Con, Upminster):3.7% in 2001; 17.4% in 2005
Patsy Calton (Libdems, Cheadle): 0.1% in 2001; 8.5% in 2005
Paul Holmes (Libdems, Chesterfield): 5.8% in 2001; 6.9% in 2005
Annette Brooke (Libdems, Dorset Mid & Poole North) 0.9% in 2001; 12.1% in 2005
Sue Doughty (Guildford): 1.1% in 2001; LOST in 2005 (0.7% tories majority)
Matthew Green (Ludlow): 3.8% in 2001; LOST (4.4% cons majority)
Norman Lamb (Norfolk North): 0.9% in 2001; 18% in 2005
Sandra Gidley (lIBDEMS, Romford): 4.9% in 2001; 0.2% in 2005
Richard Younger-Ross (Libdems, Teignbridge): 5.1% in 2001, 10.2%
Adam Price (PC, Carmarthen East & Dinefwr): 6.8% in 2001; 17.5% in 2005
2 Tory gains in 2001 made by previous MPs:
Henry Bellingham (Con, Norfolk North West): 6.8% in 2001; 18.1% in 2005
Bob Spinik (Con, Castle Point): 2.5% in 2001; 17.9% in 2005
I left out Scottish seats, Tatton and Wyre Forest
39, 42 - Part of the theory is that a new MP who beat an incumbent gets a boost at his/her first reelection not just because of having built up credibility and a personal vote, but because the ousted party no longer has those things. This is the double incumbency effect which I think Robert Waller has written about here.
In 2005 Jim Knight, Patsy Calton and Norman Lamb were all in this position.
Re. 43, Ynys Mon is interesting. Some people said it was a surprising result, but once an MP gets elected for the seat, they tend to hold on for quite some time, with the seat changing parties only once they’ve stood down. In 79, the Tories gained the seat
(under its then name of Anglesey) when Clewdyn Hughes stood down, PC gained the seat in 87 when Keith Best was forced to stand down by rumours of insider dealing over BT shares, and Labour gained the seat in 01 when PC leader I. Wyn Jones stood down to spend more time in the Welsh Assembly.
As for Tory MPs winning back their old seats, there was another such example in 2005, David Evennett in Bexleyheath and Crayford (at his second attempt, and he’d represented the seat from 83-97)
Rosindell’s first term incumbent’s bonus is absolutely no surprise - he won the seat originally (as a local boy) in 01 on a swing of 9%. Whether one likes or dislikes him, he’s a formidable campaigner.
As for Bob Spink’s greatly increased majority, it’s difficult to say whether this is a personal vote (he only regained his old seat narrowly in 01) or Essex Man falling out of love with New Labour (particularly in Castle Point itself - after winning an improbable victory in the 95 locals, winning 34 councillors to 5 for the Tories, and an even more improbable victory at parliamentary level in the 97 GE, Labour has slipped back considerably - IIRC, I read on the other side that Labour now has no councillors in Castle Point).
If so, this wouldn’t be altogether surprising - on the eve of the 95 locals, Labour had just four councillors in Castle Point.
43 Other Sidea?
Andrea at 43 gains made by other MP’s? Also interested in your response to my Post at 15 to an earlier post by you on Cheadle?
An earlier poster asked why Jackie Ballard was “unpopular” ….this was because she was very strongly opposed to fox hunting in a constituency with a strong hunting tradition…unlike other Lib Dem Mps she was not prepared to modify her views…and she lost……I like and respect jackie a great deal even though I disagree with her on hunting….she was unpopular with some Lib dems for having the cheek to stand for the leadership….working on her campaign and speaking to 100s of lib dems made me realise I wasnt one ….so even more reason to like her!!
So the “first incubents” who saw their majority being reduced (some don’t have a majoirty anymore) were: Adrian Flook,Sue Doughty ,Matthew Green and Sandra Gidley (obviously her seat is Romsey and not Romford as I wrote in my previous post).
Matthew Green was the one with the worst swing against (any info if he was a good MP or not?).
46. Castle Point has no more Labour councillors. 35 are tories and 6 for the Canvey Island Independent Group.
48. yes, voters know that Howard will be away soon, but at the same time they know that there’s no risk that Kennedy will become PM and so they could vote Libdems without worrying about it.
50. No but equally invalidates your point re Howard as voters know he won’t be Tory Leader for very long never mind any chance of being PM. Crucially being a by election you can’t mould the anti Tory Vote by tHreatening a Tory Govt, which maybe Crucial for Labour tactical Voters who were so important to Carlton In May. Add that in with Labour VOters making a Statement after Last Wekk’s terrible events and a reduced turnout and i think Mr Smithson’s Scenario is highly Probablea.
Is there any Chance of Seb Coe being a Tory Candidate for Mayor of London now? Or is as more likely he will have his eyes set on the IOC Presidency?
51. yes, but it invalides my point. I should have said ” the reaction could be worse if they will ask them what they think about the tories ruling the country”.
But as you said it’s a byelection and so even this point is invalidated.
…..At last I had a chat with the Tory candidate Stephen Day. I just smiled at what I assume was his wife and she came over soon followed by the man himself. When he asked if he could count on my support I really wanted to say yes. I can understand why candidates get a false impression. They were both charming and it was difficult to sound as though I was rejecting them after passing a cheery few minutes talking. I asked them if they were likely to win and she smiled and he shrugged. Make of it what you will…….
Lib Dem posters outnumber Tory ones by about three to one. All the houses in Cheadle are large but some approach the proportions of palaces and it’s on these that the Stephen Day posters are likely to be found. “Stephen Day lives here” they bizarrely claim!….. Not very clever marketing.
52.”Is there any Chance of Seb Coe being a Tory Candidate for Mayor of London now? Or is as more likely he will have his eyes set on the IOC Presidency? ”
He could run for the tory leadership (one more candidate couldn’t hurt). Maybe William Hague will back him and Alan Duncan will have a nervous breakdown.
Anyone has a list of newly elected MPs (in place of retiring MPs) in 2001?
Re Roger at 54 it says Stephen day living here.
We had a lib member come to the gatley office and pretend to be a member. He asked how many helpers was the office going to get that afternoon. The agent was suspucious and said 2,000 (we wasn’t, we had 3 coachloads though this morning). The man ran out made a phone call then met two other party workers and sat on the opposite side of the street, for half an hour, watching us.
On the issue of posters tories are spending more time repairing damaged burnt or stolen posters then putting new ones up. We have even got proffesional posters from essex to fit the large 4*4 so that ordinary members can put in the small garden ones.
Labour and Tory leaflets are being exceptionally friendly to each other. Latest tory “Community Focus” leaflet has bar chart with both Labour’s Mr. Martin and Stephen highlighted as living here. Text also goes on how Mr. Martin is local and a good man. Labour leaflets are just attacking Liberals and stating local candidate Stephen when talking about the tories.
Liberals are sending solicitors letters to both Labour and the Tories. As i said yesterday leaflet that was withdrawn yeterday was to dirty, however, liberal leaflets in Cheadle are just as dirty. Infact Brain Binley M.P campaigning today stopped one liberal from stealing leaflets. Bloody hippy nearly cried. Well looking at Brian Binley I don’t blame him for crying.
43 Norman Lamb (Norfolk North): 0.9% in 2001; 18% in 2005
A thing to remember about Norman is that he didn’t just materialise out of nowhere in 2001, he’d been plugging away since at least 1990 to my certain knowledge - I remember how Labour in North Norfolk used to laugh at the idea he might overtake them for second place, and how he used to be a bit of a joke with the local paper when he contacted them with a quote. (I suspect things are a bit different now!)
My point is that, in this constituency and therefore possibly in others mentioned here too, understanding the swing needs an appreciation of several elections’ results and numerous years of campaigning.
As for Jackie Ballard - she was a forthright woman who spoke her mind, which is a great way to make enemies. Didn’t stop me voting for her as leader.
57. I think many Libdems MPs built their consensus over the years before being elected. Libdems usually keep the same candidate for many elections.
S Penketh. Isn’t the Tory head office in the Cheadle precinct?
The large Tory posters are even more bizarre than the small ones. The first one I saw was on the most enormous house just outside Bramhall. It said “VOTE CONCERVATIVE, Stephen Day living here”. It looked like one of those ads from the ’80’s where one boy sticks his tongue out at another and say’s “My Dad makes more money than your’s!”
Actually Cheadle is an interesting insight into the politics of ‘class’. On the Wythenshawe /Cheadle border I saw the only Labour poster anywhere. As you move more into Cheadle it turns into a sea of Lib/Dem posters. The Tory ones are outnumbered perhaps 20 to 1. Infact the Tory one I remember was in the window of a small flat next to a Union Jack and a Cross of St George.
Then as you move into Bramhall and towards Woodford and Macclesfield the houses become vast and the posters split roughly down the middle. It was in a garden at a pub in Woodford that I met your charming candidate. He has a strong local accent which is perhaps why he stresses that he lives there? Mind you with an accent like that there is no chance he grew up there! It’s easy to forget how friendly northerners are compared to Londoners in particular but southerners in general.
Andrea at 42 and 43: Yes, sitting MPs accumulate favours, but also enemies (’I asked you to get my neighbour evicted and you were useless’). My personal votes are mostly people approving of my mild-mannered approach rather than anything I’ve done for them personally. I think the ‘how nice to see that new MP working so hard’ does gradually yield to ‘time for a change’, as with governments. But those figures at 43 do seem nearly all to bear out the ‘first time bonus’ theory, even where it’s a Labour MP in an election where the Labour vote declined nationally.
Jackie Ballard is now running the RSPCA, not a bad career move! We animal fans try to look after our own.
By the way, my periodic German poll-watch report: the centre-right lead over the green/left is now down to 3% (50-47). The general assumption is that if it disappears, a ‘grand coalition’ of Christian Democrats and Social Democrats would follow, to push through welfare reforms, but I’m not sure this would really happen - if the PDS were up to 10-11% as in the current polls it would expose the SPD massively to further losses if they allied with the right to make welfare benefits more stringent. Centre-right still favoured but if you can get 3-1 against them getting a majority I’d think that a good bet.
Unusual evening: I just got back from a dinner with 200 members of the ex-Sierra Leone community in Nottingham - they presented me with a ‘thank you’ plate for the Government for intervening to stop the particularly nasty insurgency. ‘If it wasn’t for Britain, our country and my extended family would no longer exist,’ said my neighbour soberly.
Reagrding Matthew Green- he had a huge swing to him in 2001- what was seen as a safe Tory seat- and a small one back this time. I think he was a good MP, but not that popular with some in the party I know. One comment heard was that he should have stopped showing people how to campaign in their seats and spent time on his! A little harsh, but you get the drift.
Guildford was a tiny change, almost nothing in it. Useless campaign organisation from a few people I know who went along to help. I wonder if Sue Doughty will stand again?
Re 59 that is the head office however there are many sector offices running their own small areas, in Cheadle Hulme where I have spent approx 90% of my time I woud say Tory posters are out numbered by 4 to 9 however, there was not that many liberal posters in gately today, apart from those huge ones at the house in the Junction as you come in from J3 of the M60.
I am glad you find us south lancashire/ Northern Cheshire Folk friendly, having just returned from Northampton I find myself very much in agrement with you on that point.
I think I know which Labour poster you are on about there is also another lone one in Hulme. I do agree, as I have stated before, about our posters though I actually like the ‘living here’ slogan. It is the blue on white. You can hardly see them intill your almost on top of them. White on Blue, in my humble opinion, should have been used.
On the topic of the ‘Living Here’ slogan. It does seem to be getting through when I have canvessed it has been brought up by local people that he lives in Marple. Some of the older residents are very parochial. A lot of people in Hulme keep bringing up the graves scandal. I would have thought the schools scandal would have been brought up more than it has.
Local Labour team are still quite friendly with the tories. I know some of the chaps from Labour withington ( I stood for the tories in 2003 locals and lived in fallowfield for 2 years at uni). They are intent on hurting the liberals.
His accent is quite distinctive. It is not quite Cheshire it still has that little twang of yorkshire to it.
I must apologise about the length of my recent posts, I just thought I would include any bit of information I had got to help with peoples bets and so forth. I do hope they have been useful.
60 - I think President Koehler has yet to agree to Schroeder’s request for a dissolution, hasn’t he? There is a lot of talk about that the whole thing may be unconstitutional and I recall reading that one Green parliamentarian planned to challenge the dissolution before the Constitutional Court if Koehler agrees. We’ll see where this goes, but I think that the CDU/FDP have got to be clear favourites to form an administration regardless of what the polls are floating just now. I just can’t see any other result. My German contacts, admittedly all partisan Christian Democrats, are sounding very confident of their chances, but they seem to want Mrs Merkel to take a tougher line on economic/welfare reform. She’s running a classic front-runner’s campaign: be as vague as possible when forced to say anything at all.
64 - President Köhler has until 22nd July to decide whether a dissolution would be constitutional, allowing elections to take place on 18th September.
It well quite possible that he may decide against a dissolution. Unlike the UK, the German constitution does not give the government of the day the freedom to choose election dates - this is what Schröder is effectivly doing.
At the moment, as Nick Palmer mentions, it looks like the left (SPD/WASG/PDS/Greens) is closing the gap a little on the right (CDU/CSU/FDP), and Schröder is personally quite a lot more popular than Angela Merkel. Having said that, I can’t actually imagine that such a left wing coalition could actually happen - a grand coalition would indeed be more likely.
It is possible that the London bombings could swing a few voters away from the CDU/CSU. The atrocities are getting considerable news coverage here - Schröder may choose to remind people that such attacks might be more likely here had Stoiber won the last election and sent German troops to Iraq.
I still think the odds should be 4/6 and 6/4 or closer Lib Dem and Cons. However I am watching this from a distance. Not on the ground. From a distance five thoughts.
1. This was a good opportunity for the Cons but…
2. It appears their literature has been strange. Why the vitriol. Voters do not like that and when the Stockport News apparently publishes an editorial criticising that something must be amiss, then S Penketh , is it Stuart, admits a leaflet has been withdrawn, something appears wrong somewhere in the organisation.
3. Is Mr Hunter not leader of Stockport Council and is not Cheadle in Stockport Council. I suspect most of the voters know that.
4. Have to beware thoughts of London Bombs affecting issue, probably only marginal and any predictable suppport for the PM would probably come from those who do not vote anyway.
5. Do not confuse some blairite Labour activists with the views of traditional Labour voters
Summary Conservatives seem from this distance to have made very hard work for themselves, totally unecessary it seems to me. If I am right for goodness sake why? But as I say this is from a distance.
43. I should have left Sandra Gidley out. I checked only the GE results and I forgot there were a by-election in the middle, so her “first incumbency” was the 2001 GE. So there are only 3 MPs who performed worse in 2005 (the 3 who lost their seats).
Should I consider Brent East and Leicester South first incubency for the Libdmes this time?
64. I wouldn’t be sure to rule out a grand coalition. I read that Schroeder gave a good speech in the Parliament when he asked to dissolve it, while Merkel was a disaster (she even confused FDP with SPD!).
67, Andrea but the SPD is already under Pressure on it’s ;Left Flank. A Grand Coalition with the CDU would mean further association with unpopular reforms. Lafontaine is already foaming about a Bosses Conspiracy, imagine what use he would make of a Grand Coalition. Surely political Suicide for the SPDA?
67. See also Nick Palmer at 60.
68. but if CDU/FDP won’t get a majority and a SPD/Greens/PDS/Lafontaine government is created, how long will it be last?
67 - An outside possiblity is a CDU/CSU/Green coalition, should the CDU/CSU/FDP not quite reach a majority. The German Greens are (with a few exceptions) much more mainstream than the UK Green party and would be considered to be to the right of the SPD on many issues. Note that most of the support for the WASG comes fom disaffected SPD voters rather than from the Greens.
One should also bear in mind that a grand coalition would not be popular with the voters, and is likely in the future to lead to increases in the small party votes at the expense of both main parties.
68-71- A grand coalition could the best to do the needed unpopular reform.
and I suppose that Schroeder (and CDU too) think that these unpopular reform will bring benefits in the long term (I don’t think they’re stupid enough to do unpopular reform only for the sake to do them), so at the end they could even benefit from them.
If the economy will start to work, part of the left winged protest vote who is going to PDS/Lafontaine will come back.
70. If Schroder/SPD were Cunning, they would let Merkel/CDU have a minority Govt, perhaps agreeing on an ad hoc basis to support reforms in the Bundestag, while avoiding the unpopularity of them by being in Govt. Then when the CDU has done the heavy lifting but before the reforms have borne fruit and while they are Still Unpopular, they push for early elections again, and take up the Benefits themselvesa.
73 - Even more cunning: they pretend to support reforms in principle, but actually keep on blocking their implementation, as the CDU has done in the Bundesrat for the past few years. Then, when the economy collapses completely, the minority CDU government gets the blame, and the SPD is hoisted back into power.
74. Much harder for them to do that than what i suggested, because the CDU alone controlled the Upper house whiule the SPD would need other Parties Greens, even quelle horreur Lafontaine to block the CDU in the Bundesrat, and would be vulnerable both to the Charge of being accused of wreckers by the CDU, and the CDU picking off other MInority Parties to sqeak the Legislation through Anyway.
David Seary. My feeling is that the Lib Dems are well ahead. The people of Cheadle seem to think they are now a Lib Dem Constituency which makes them feel a little more individualistic than if they had been Labour or Tory. I really doubt the Tories are in with a shout but it’s got nothing to do with any campaign which seems fairly low key.
PS I have no inside knowledge I’ve just been taking some photos and talking to locals
Roger - pleased to hear you talk of Cheadle so glowingly and that you found somewhere nice to eat.
I think I disagreed with you before about exactly how Tory Cheadle ‘feels’ - but I would agree that the rather strident Conservatism embodied by the likes of Michael Howard finds little sympathy there - Stephen Day is on the left of the party, and I think his predecessor Tom Winstanley (I think) was too. The reason for the area’s Conservatism when I was growing up there in the seventies and eighties was largely because they were the obvious defence against a Labour Party which - in places like Manchester - made no bones about the hatred it had for middle-class suburbia. Now the class war element has all but disappeared from politics, the main reason to vote Conservative has gone, especially when not choosing a government.
IIRC Stephen Day did himself no favours at the selection meeting when he first fought the seat by being from Yorkshire, but redeemed himself by being the only bitter drinker among the candidates. On such things are political careers made…
“SPD would need other Parties Greens, even quelle horreur Lafontaine to block the CDU in the Bundesrat”
No problem here. I think that Lafontaine will vote against CDU’s reforms anyway.
75 - Just to clarify, I meant: If there were a minority CDU/FDP government, the SPD and others could block its legislation (while pretending to support it) in the Bundestag, as the CDU has done recently to SPD/Green legislation in the Bundesrat.
Is Tom Winstanley related to Brian Winstanley the ex Liberal MP for Cheadle or Hazel Grove? I also grew up in the area and he was a neighbour in Hale if I remember. I don’t remember there being a Liberal in that area but I’m sure Winstanley was a Liberal.
Yes Cheadle has seriously grown on me. The good weather helps and all the outdoor bistros and wine bars of Bramhall give the place a very nice look. I’m trying to see if I can organize things so I can stay until polling on Thursday. I just can’t drag myself away. There’s something engaging about a byelection
There definitely won’t be an SPD-PDS coalition in Gemrany this time round - there isn’t enough mutual goodwill for it, or enough similarity of platform, despite some coalitions at local state level. So if there’s no centre-right majority, some other sort of coalition (or possibly, as others have said, minority government, though this would be unusual for Germany) is inevitable. In the longer term, who knows? Most countries with PR learn to live with a left-wing party getting 10% of the vote.
Interesting YouGov poll on post-bomb attitudes today in the Telegraph.
77 and 80. Some confusion here. Day’s predessor as MP for Cheadle was Tom Normanton who defeated Dr Stanley Winstanley in June 1970. IIRC the latter was elected for the newly created Hazel Grove seat in Feb 1974 only to be defeated again in October 1974, this time by Tom Arnold!
82. You’re an encyclopedia! Was Winstanley a Liberal and did he become MP? Perhaps in a by election? And is there a ‘Brian’ Winstanley who became an MP or a prospective MP from the area who later became a Lord?
82 - yes, sorry, my mistake - Tom Winstanley was a strange hybrid of Tom Normanton and the Dr. Winstanley that won Cheadle in 1966. I meant Tom Normanton.
Re Mr Seary
The S Does indeed stand for Stuart, how do you know? On the issue of the leaflet it was just the one that was withdrawn. It was withdrawn the day after it was printed as it was deemed to be too nasty, however, most liberal leaflets have been just as nasty to us and the Labour candidate. It is just that a few of our members on the management team thought it was against their principles. It was withdrawn twelve hhours after arriving.
Also Hunter is spending a lot of time and effort having lawers write threats to both candidates. People have remarked as well how rude and forcefull some liberals are at canvessing and leafleting.
As for the statement from the Stockport express. It was infact from its siter ‘free’ paper. It is well known in the area due to his ‘why I’m local’ issues. That he was infact intill recently a senior bod at the papers group, this is something both the Torys and labour are reafirming in our literature. ‘Scared Hunter calls in friends from the Media.’
Other leaflets have stuck with the A555, the mysterious 50 police and asks if anyone has spotted one. Along with of course the obliqatory statment of being ‘living here’.
On the question of Hunter coming from Marple. Although in the same Council Marple is a twenty minute drive from much of the constituency, TRhe same length of time it takes me to drive from Bury to cheadle on the M60.
You Must also consider that Mark Hunter is also known as the leader of a deaply unpopular council, within the last two years we have had the schools crisis, when an overspend forced much needed teachers to be made redundant, the Graves scandal and the digging up of the wrong graves. The new social security fiasco with a 3 million pound overspend most SS services have now had to be curtailed.
I wouldn’t say Withington Labour are particularly Blairite. They are old socialists. About one of the only things Northwest Labour and Tory activists agree on is that they would rather fight each other than fight a dirty liberal.
Re Mr Seary
The S Does indeed stand for Stuart, how do you know? On the issue of the leaflet it was just the one that was withdrawn. It was withdrawn the day after it was printed as it was deemed to be too nasty, however, most liberal leaflets have been just as nasty to us and the Labour candidate. It is just that a few of our members on the management team thought it was against their principles. It was withdrawn twelve hhours after arriving.
Also Hunter is spending a lot of time and effort having lawers write threats to both candidates. People have remarked as well how rude and forcefull some liberals are at canvessing and leafleting.
As for the statement from the Stockport express. It was infact from its siter ‘free’ paper. It is well known in the area due to his ‘why I’m local’ issues. That he was infact intill recently a senior bod at the papers group, this is something both the Torys and labour are reafirming in our literature. ‘Scared Hunter calls in friends from the Media.’
Other leaflets have stuck with the A555, the mysterious 50 police and asks if anyone has spotted one. Along with of course the obliqatory statment of being ‘living here’.
On the question of Hunter coming from Marple. Although in the same Council Marple is a twenty minute drive from much of the constituency, TRhe same length of time it takes me to drive from Bury to cheadle on the M60.
Re Mr Seary
The S Does indeed stand for Stuart, how do you know? On the issue of the leaflet it was just the one that was withdrawn. It was withdrawn the day after it was printed as it was deemed to be too nasty, however, most liberal leaflets have been just as nasty to us and the Labour candidate. It is just that a few of our members on the management team thought it was against their principles. It was withdrawn twelve hhours after arriving.
Also Hunter is spending a lot of time and effort having lawers write threats to both candidates. People have remarked as well how rude and forcefull some liberals are at canvessing and leafleting.
As for the statement from the Stockport express. It was infact from its siter ‘free’ paper. It is well known in the area due to his ‘why I’m local’ issues. That he was infact intill recently a senior bod at the papers group, this is something both the Torys and labour are reafirming in our literature. ‘Scared Hunter calls in friends from the Media.’
Other leaflets have stuck with the A555, the mysterious 50 police and asks if anyone has spotted one. Along with of course the obliqatory statment of being ‘living here’.
On the question of Hunter coming from Marple. Although in the same Council Marple is a twenty minute drive from much of the constituency, TRhe same length of time it takes me to drive from Bury to cheadle on the M60.
You Must also consider that Mark Hunter is also known as the leader of a deaply unpopular council, within the last two years we have had the schools crisis, when an overspend forced much needed teachers to be made redundant, the Graves scandal and the digging up of the wrong graves. The new social security fiasco with a 3 million pound overspend most SS services have now had to be curtailed.
I wouldn’t say Withington Labour are particularly Blairite. They are old socialists. About one of the only things Northwest Labour and Tory activists agree on is that they would rather fight each other than fight a dirty liberal.
You Must also consider that Mark Hunter is also known as the leader of a deaply unpopular council, within the last two years we have had the schools crisis, when an overspend forced much needed teachers to be made redundant, the Graves scandal and the digging up of the wrong graves. The new social security fiasco with a 3 million pound overspend most Social Security services have now had to be curtailed.
I wouldn’t say Withington Labour are particularly Blairite. They are very much old labour. About one of the only things Northwest Labour and Tory activists agree on is that they would rather fight each other than fight a dirty liberal.
85. What is the Current State ofg Play? What would the result be if it was today? And what your pred for Thurs? Wierth a small punt given the odds on a Tory Victory however improbable?
83…Yes. Stanley Wanstanley (aka as the TV Doctor in the 1960s…I think he had a column in the TV Times) was the Liberal MP for Cheadle from 1966-70 (he had overturned a Tory majority of 8,700 in 1964). After his last defeat in 1974 he did become a peer.
No idea who ‘Brian’ might be…
44.”In 2005 Jim Knight, Patsy Calton and Norman Lamb were all in this position. ”
Book Value, why did you refer to these 3 MPs in particular?
89 - they were just 3 that came to mind as examples of the phenomenon. I shouldn’t have bothered as looking back at your 43, you had done much more research than I could come up with on the spot.
88. Yes that’s the one! He had a program on TV and was a doctor. I thought his name was Brian.
Ooops. Of course, should be Dr Michael Winstanley!
….though Stanley Winstanley sounds far more distinguished and liberally eccentric
90. ok, I was thinking that maybe you cited them, because they have something special…. I read too much into things.
Now I’ll try look at 2001 newly elected MPs in place of retiring MPs.
78. I take your point but was merely pointing to the improbable Coalition the SPD wqould have to Stitch together to BLock CDU Measures in the Lower Hose, by Contrast the CDU has been able to that to the SPD in the Upper house virtually on it’s own or by itselfa.
85/86 - Speaking from a distance even further from Cheadle than most , it looks to me that the Conservatives have shot themselves in both feet and the back passage at the same time . Slanderous leaflets which some of their own members have condemned and then had to be withdrawn , cooperation with Nulab perhaps a foretaste of a grand coalition between those two parties after the next GE with Lib Dems as the official opposition and a new internal policy that Conservative candidates must not only live in the constituency but not more than 20 minutes drive from any part of it and the readymade excuse when they lose that the Lib Dem candidate has friends on the local free newspaper .
The Conservatives are managing to plumb new depths of campaigning that make Lib Dem bar charts look tame .
95.”by Contrast the CDU has been able to that to the SPD in the Upper house virtually on it’s own or by itselfa. ”
I think that CDU needed FDP to block government bills in the Upper House too. I remember they weren’t able to block the bill which gave more rights to gay couples, because FDP voted with the government.
Re 87
I think the liberals will just win. The tory vote is just holding up. The torys are up for this fight, coming form scotland and Cornwall. This is the first bylection i have seen the tories fight properly.
At first it was the liberals that were the better organised then us. They delivered twice as many leaflets. that is reversed now in most areas. We started with crappy photocopy’s and the liberlas nice proffesionally done leaflets and newspapers. This is now the other way round again.
We and the Labour party have done canvesses. The Labour party the first canvess in years. We have found similar figures liberals down 4% tories up 3% and Labour up 2%.
Both myself and my Labour contacts believe Hunter is scared. They send teams to stand outside our sector offices for an hour a time, I would have thought a better use of time and effort would have been to go out and canvess and/or go leaflet delivering.
98 - You mean slander , cooperation with Nulab and issuing and then withdrawing leaflets are the proper way to fight elections - LOL . How was your leaflet withdrawn , by the way , did you knock on every door through which you had delivered one and ask to have it back because it was slanderous ? ROFLMAO
having trouble posting the word social ist hence my reports been broken up.
Stuart, Just to say how much I appreciate your on-the-ground commentaries of the campiagn in Cheadle (and also grudgingly
to Roger as well!). Could be an exciting count - hope the BBC does a by-election special.
Mark senior how about your slanderous leaflets and the pictures designed top make our candidate look shifty, how about the unsigned leaflet calling Day. Very classy Mark
96 - Mark - I think you misinterpreted S Penketh’s point of geography - Marple is covered by Stockport council - as is the Cheadle constituency - but is not actually in it (it’s in the Hazel Grove constituency, which is also covered by Stockport council) - hardly Mars, I agree - I don’t know to what extent voters care about where their MP lives - but clearly some must or there wouldn’t be such a focus on it.
“the unsigned leaflet calling Day” - sorry, I don’t understand.
Thank you
John O. if Rodger is in Cheadle this week in the evenings if he fancys a drink in the white horse I’ll be delighted to meet up.
104 - Sorry , I haven’t issued any leaflets and I am sure if the Lib Dems had issued any then the Conservatives would be taking legal action - Are they ?
It would actually be useful to those of us far away from Cheadle if someone could post the leaflets n this site then we can judge properly .
Bit surprised that if as you say Labour are canvassing for the first time for years that they can accurately quote figures of change of party allegiance . Perhaps in the new spirit of inter party cooperation , the Conservatives have given Labour their own past canvas results to help them .
107. If I can stay doiwn till Thursday I’d be delighted to have a drink with you in the White Horse. Then maybe we could send out a joint communique which might be believed!
Oh Dear another onew in the Spam Trap. Do i need to type again, or do they come through Later anyway but merely delayed?
110 - they should come through when Mike or Robert has time to let them through.
“Soc-ialist”, “special-ist” and “Tex-as” are the words that usually get me trapped.
Well I’ll be delighted after this week though the communique might be a bit slurred.
Bookvalue we recieved a few unsigned leaflets in Bramhall on streets that are quite marginal other than that it is a case of our posters being burnt or destroyed.
On the point of legal action I wouldn’t know that information doesn’t get to me. I’m just a lonely grunt. I managed to get my old CF chaps from Northampton up with our new M.P too so had good day yesterday.
Dear Roger e-mail and i’ll try and meet up i’m on penkethstuart@hotmail.com
114. Not so long ago Mr Smithson was wondering if any leadership Contenders would show up in Cheadle? Have THey? How many MP’s have put in Grunt Work?
Dear Mark
How about Romsey how the farmer had land on the border of the constiuency inside and out but his farm house was 300 yrds from it. You campaigned on him being an outsider parachuted in when his house was 300 yrds away half of his farm was in.
Also why does your ex councillor who spends half his time in Ireland, when he’s Back, destroy are posters. theres white plastic covering trees that we have to remove.
So don’t lecture me on friendly moral campaigns
I must say I think all parties are pretty much the same on the “local” card. They use it when they can.
Dear I Brian Binley M.p was there yesterday. Thersea May. Mr Howard, and Ancram have been along with the three M.E.P’s I believe Osbourne has been helping as well, along with Ben wallace.
For once dear Book Value
I agree
118 iNTERESTING, but not surprsining i guess that any of the heavyweight Leadership Contenders have Chanced their Arm by Putting in appearance at Cheadle. Have they tried to get Letwin, his Character seems just the sort to appeal up there, andf his expereience of Streetfighting the Lib Dem may have been useful. But i guess his NEW joB means he is busy.
116 - Sorry Stuart , I have never campaigned in Romsey and FYI i have not been a member of any party for over 20 years but it is no use complaining about one party’s behaviour if you then go out and try to outdo them in nastiness yourself . I do look forward to the forthcoming changes in Conservative party candidate rules - Sorry you cannot stand again in Brighton Kemptown because you live 50 yards over the border in Brighton Pavilion - LOL .
I’ve never stood for any GE campaign, however, I agree with your point I happened to say the day it came out i did not like the leaflet infact i’m on record on here saying as such. What I have camplained about is the liberals saying how negative our campaign is when they are using the same techniques as the always do. it was one leaflet which was withdrawn in 12 hours howabout your leaflets and your poster burning
Dear I not sure about Letwin, I think he is too stuck up and grand for us northerners. We have also had Graham Brady and i’m sure Cameron and Davis have made appearances though i’m not 100% on that one. I would like Alan Duncan up there as well not sure if he has come.
Sorry Mark
misread I know your not a liberal member meant to have asked where you stood on the poster burnings.
123. Caroline Spelman came to Cheadle too.
124 - For the record Stuart , I deplore negative campaigning of any sort and tactics such as poster burning which when they occur tend to be the work of zealous individuals rather than parties .
The big problem for the Conservatives is that having derided and attacked Lib Dem methods of campaigning for years , they are now appearing to try to outdo them at the same game . What you do today , you cannot oppose tomorrow .
I would repeat the question I asked earlier , if the offending leaflet has been withdrawn , how were copies that had been already delivered retrieved .
Generally though , Stuart , chill out a bit , you started to sound more and more like Rik W - Would he still qualify to stand in Sutton under your new rules by the way ?
123 Really? Too Grand and yet dear old Michael Ancram has been to Visit? I thought that record of success against Lib Dems would count for more. With the exception of David Davis, the Tories oop North fared badly against the Lib Dems, W&L, Solihull; especially was nightmareish.
Ps Good if you could check out if DD&DC have been to visit? Be very interested in knowing thata.
Ps what Seats do Binley&Wallace sit for?
128- Brian Binley sits for Northampton South
Ben Wallace sits for Lancaster and Wyre
2 tories gains.
128 - Binley sits for Northampton South and Wallace for Lancaster and Wyre, I believe.
129 - Ben Wallace was was also an MSP for North East Scotland. Former officer in the Scots Guards IIRC.
129 wasn’t there when I began typing a moment ago!
I have been part of the brigade that would only have local candidates i’m not tub’s you know. In Bury South we had a Trafford councillor stand. However, we fought the Liberal over thisbecause he claims to be local. Stockport council covers an extremly large area. It is all of South Manchester (Suburbia-land). If it takes the same length of time to drive to get to the consistuency as it does for me from Bury to get there it is not really local.
I have argued here that we should be sticking with the local issues. on the withdrawn leaflet only a small percentages was delivered and we decided not to ask for them back the liberals didn’t request us to either. But seeing as I questiond my own leaflet on numerous occasions and thus called my parties campaign how can I be compared to Rik W I’m shocked I choked on my apple juice when I read that. A bit below the belt isn’t it.
Last bit was tongue ‘n’ cheek old chap
133. So in your view, why have the Southern Tories begun to roll back the Lib Dems while the Northern Tories are still being rolled back by them? Cheers.
126 -Any party who has a local candidate who is up agains someone from outside the constituency is going to play up their local credentials and portray the opponent as an outsider. Its hardly something that the Tories just do. Its not dirty or deceitful its just pointing out a statement of fact.
A few reason I
firstly lib dem overstretch in the South, we don’t have that up north,
Secondly they have became progressively left wing. South right wing liberals didn’t like this. In the north this attracted the dissilused labour voters and thus a collapse in the Labour Vote. Rember in Cheadle we actually increased the amount of real votes we got it was just that the labour vote collapsed and went to Liberals. In westmoorland they spent to much time helping in Morecombe I have been told but that could just be a poor excuse.