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How PB.C caused a top columnist to switch to Cameron

July 10th, 2005

    Is the site influencing the events it covers?

The cover story of this week’s Spectator is unashamedly based on the story and discussion here on June 9th when we looked at the impact of David Cameron’s Etonian background on the Tory leadership race. Good on the magazine for giving Politicalbetting full credit unlike many other parts of the media who pick up our stories.

In the article Vicki Woods describes how she has moved from her original pro-Davis position and how what was discussed here is influencing her. She writes:-

The craze for internet spread-betting that has swept through City trading floors and the suburban housing market has finally gripped me; for three weeks I’ve been a slave to gambling websites. Up nights, tapping away…. Actually, it’s one website — Politicalbetting.com — which is not exactly a gambling site, more an online tipping service. And I’m not looking to bet, I’m looking for David Cameron.

I know, I know. Call me flighty. Back in May I was all for David Davis as opposition leader for the upcoming and possibly rather grim Brown years. Cameron, 38, was — well, a bit young. (What was I thinking? Etonians are made men at 18.) But on 9 June his rather appealingly 18th-century face was posted on the site alongside: ‘Can the Tories choose a toff? Does being an Old Etonian still disqualify you from being Tory leader?’ The accompanying post noted that this country’s last Etonian prime minister (out of 19 OEs) was Sir Alec Douglas-Home. Forty years ago, at the time when leaders were not voted in but simply ‘emerged’.

So, there’s Cameron, on my screen in his country-shabby navy jumper, looking inescapably toff-y, and I was curious to see how the punters would respond. Two hundred did vigorously, knowledgeably and politically. (Also coarsely.) The main thrust was a) it’s the parliamentary party that’s worried about supposed toffiness more than voters ever are, b) Cameron ‘looks nicer’ than Davis, and c) the dream ticket — for lots — would be Clarke and Cameron, if only Clarke were younger and Cameron older. They noticed his ‘youth’ but what mutterers call ‘David’s Eton thing’ passed them by. ….

Over the decades the Spectator has had a big impact on Tory leadership races and played a big part forty odd years ago in the party moving from the process where leaders “emerged” to a sort of democratic structure. That the magazine is now covering Cameron’s prospects in positive terms in not without significance.

We said bet on Cameron at 5/1 on July 3rd. The price has tightened 4/1 but we stick with our view.

Mike Smithson



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111 comments to “How PB.C caused a top columnist to switch to Cameron”

  1. Congratulations, Mike!

         by Peter July 10th, 2005 at 2:44 am

  2. “for three weeks I’ve been a slave to gambling websites. Up nights, tapping away…. “

    Poor girl. So anyway, who is she on here? ;-)

         by alex July 10th, 2005 at 8:02 am

  3. Andrea - This is the story I mentioned on Friday night (Mike’s a bit slow…. ;) )

    “That the magazine is now covering Cameron’s prospects in positive terms in not without significance”. Hmm, and I’m sure that the Editor also being an OE is purely coincidental.

    Alex - Are A.H. Matlock and Ms. Vicki Woods somehow related - I think we should be told :P

         by John O July 10th, 2005 at 8:29 am

  4. Congratulations on your punditry Mike. And if you have contributed the the success of David Cameron you can consider it a double whammy! Good news for the site and even better news for the Lib Dems (and Labour!)

         by roger July 10th, 2005 at 8:45 am

  5. 2 - Don’t know who she is but I’m sure Tabman would accuse her of being another alter ego of Jack W .

         by Mark Senior July 10th, 2005 at 8:54 am

  6. Congrats, how long before you are influencing the 2008 US Presidential Election?

         by N July 10th, 2005 at 9:01 am

  7. I’ve just had a flick through the Cameron thread. Our mystery “Vicky” could be “Observer”? I hope we havent contributed to another five years in the wilderness for the Tories!

         by roger July 10th, 2005 at 9:03 am

  8. I thought David Cameron came across very well on Any Questions, but obviously Roger knows better…

         by Sophia July 10th, 2005 at 9:23 am

  9. Someone must know who the Speccie’s backed in previous leadership elections…

         by Innocent Abroad July 10th, 2005 at 9:32 am

  10. 8. Yes I thought he came over quite well but so did Brian Eno and I wouldn’t fancy him as a future PM. Actually I thought Simon Hughes was better than all of them.

         by roger July 10th, 2005 at 9:38 am

  11. ‘The Speccie’ sounds cute but……. “The Sextator’s gorgeous pounting collumist Viccy Woods goes for Cameron!” is more appropriate

         by roger July 10th, 2005 at 9:45 am

  12. Anyone tell me why the Sunday Torygraph is now a bastion of New Lab? I’d have thought after Lawson’s Sacking that might have toned down, but D’Ancona especially are full STeam ahead in their admiration of the Dear Leader. Might be a good nominee for Private Eye’s OBN i reckon.

    Ps Who is the Editor at the MOment?

         by N July 10th, 2005 at 9:46 am

  13. Freudian slip. Should be “Pouting”

         by roger July 10th, 2005 at 9:48 am

  14. 10- Many politicians come across well on TV, but no one will put them in the position to lead a party.
    I read that Diane Abbott comes across well on This Week, but no one will think about her as Labour leader.

    Coming across well on TV is important, but it’s not all.

         by Andrea July 10th, 2005 at 9:57 am

  15. It was radio Andrea which helps Cameron.

    N. I thought it was a good article by D’ancona. If you want to read nothing but glorification of the Tories and denunciation’s of Labour why not pick up some old election leaflets. Newspapers are obviously too rich for your taste. The new editor is Sarah Sands who is just as Tory as Lawson.

         by roger July 10th, 2005 at 10:16 am

  16. “Many politicians come across well on TV, but no one will put them in the position to lead a party.”

    Of course, but in this day and age it is a necessity that you come across well.

    BTW, Cameron actually comes across well both in radio and TV.

         by Sophia July 10th, 2005 at 10:17 am

  17. Momentum is all in Politics. I take it everyone is agreed that Daviss’s Camp’s attempts to build an unstoppable momentum have Stalled, and more and more those insitutions/people that are coming out are doing so for Cameron. The Tory Press in particular seems to have made it’s mind up and while they haven’t formally endorsed them, given the tone of their Coverage of the two men i think it’s Clear to all the direction events are taking.

    Ps Any LIb Reports on Cheadle? I place slightly more credence with Mr Smithson et al than Roger Unsurprisingly.

         by I July 10th, 2005 at 10:22 am

  18. Ps Any News on K Clarke’s moves?

         by I July 10th, 2005 at 10:23 am

  19. 16. I think that Alan Duncan comes acroos well in TV.

         by Andrea July 10th, 2005 at 10:23 am

  20. 17 - No, I think the Davis momentum has increased after his performance in the wake of the attacks in London and was reported very postively in lots of the Tory press. The only problem I can see with the Davis camp is they think already that it is a done deal (which it may be, who knows) and they could end up doing a Paris Olympic bid.

         by Sophia July 10th, 2005 at 10:25 am

  21. 19 - He does and he always very well dressed.

         by Sophia July 10th, 2005 at 10:26 am

  22. I’m glad to see that the Tories might be seeing sense after all.

    Go tories, go!

         by Charyxena July 10th, 2005 at 10:29 am

  23. Good stuff, Mike.

         by book value July 10th, 2005 at 10:32 am

  24. 15. NO i read the Indie actually, not renowned for being a Tory Mouthpiece. For me easily the best Speech last week, and i have to say i never like him before was by Ken, he was i though quite superb in the way he told those murderers that he knew they feared not succeeding and told them why they would not. Feel free to disagree Roger but you don’t have to adopt so harsh a tone in response.

    20. Unsurprising, and yet the betting odds continue to show movement the other way. For me the key to whether Davis would be stoppped was whether a Single Anti Davis Candidate emerged. I think all the Anti-Davis Factions together outnumber his, although it’s the largest individually. If they are now coalescing around Cameron that is Bad News for Davis.

         by N July 10th, 2005 at 10:35 am

  25. I. Roger has been in the constituency for the last few days and I’m quite neutral. I really don’t mind who wins but I get the very strong feeling that it’s going to be the Lib Dems and with an increased majority. Ignore me if you like-it’s no skin off my nose- but I’m not sure why?

         by roger July 10th, 2005 at 10:37 am

  26. Looking back at the Cameron thread I’ve noticed that IA never told us (or me, anyway) the Christopher Hitchens story he promised to recount at the party!

    25 - neutral, Roger? I thought the Lib Dems were getting the benefit of your expertise.

         by book value July 10th, 2005 at 10:39 am

  27. I had pretty much assumed that the Lib Dems would comfortably hold Cheadle, but now I hear Roger is giving his expertise (in the third person) and I am not so sure…

         by Sophia July 10th, 2005 at 10:42 am

  28. Yes. Can’t we even it up by sending Printz off to aid in the Tory campaign? :-D

         by book value July 10th, 2005 at 10:49 am

  29. Isn’t Printz now supporting Respect?!? To be honest, its only when Roger says the Tories in Cheadle are in meltdown that you should get worried.

         by Sophia July 10th, 2005 at 10:52 am

  30. 29 - you’re right, he does seem to have switched. You wouldn’t have thought Respect were very visible in Broxtowe…

         by book value July 10th, 2005 at 10:53 am

  31. 25 It’s because you seem so incredibly passionate or should i say Partisan, i can never tell if you are being not objective. Mr Smithson,Sophia etc are all passionate about their Parties but also analytical or Critical on occasion. I can’t remember you ever doing that, and i know you dislike the Tories so much i find it hard to tell if you are merely Cherrypicking the Stuff Conducive to your point of View in Cheadle or ignoring Stuff that isn’t. Do you really think an increased Liberal Majority is likely when even Partisan LIb Dems like Mr Smithson are betting on a reduced hold?

         by I July 10th, 2005 at 10:57 am

  32. 26 BV. I was going to offer any help I could to the Lib Dems but couldn’t find them and it was wet so I decided to just photograph the byelection instead as a neutral. I’m sorry about the “expertise” post. I did Paddy A’s first PPB pro bono because my partner and the person who wrote it (a senior Liberal and a writer from JWT) were good friends. We were waiting in a studio for the new leader to turn up and Matthew Taylor and the writer were explaining how important it was to get the name ‘Paddy Ashdown’ accross in the broadcast when the bell rang and the receptionist announced “We have a Mr Paddy Ashgate in reception…..”

         by roger July 10th, 2005 at 11:10 am

  33. 32 - ah yes… we were probably still the SaLaDs in those days…

         by book value July 10th, 2005 at 11:16 am

  34. What… :roll: not finding the LibDems? In a by-election??!!

         by John O July 10th, 2005 at 11:20 am

  35. 29-30- I thought that Printz would support anything who could stop New Labour.

         by Andrea July 10th, 2005 at 11:27 am

  36. I. I just don’t know because I have nothing to compare it to. It just feels like one way traffic. If I’m wrong I’ll have egg on my face and I hope no-one loses any money on my say-so. But please don’t say I’m being partizan because in this instant I marginally prefer the Tory candidate (because I met him) than the Lib one whom I know nothing about. And the result will change nothing nationally.

         by roger July 10th, 2005 at 11:32 am

  37. Just spoken to my Mum in Cheadle Hulme - she says she is being bombarded by leaflets - usually at least one a day from Tories and LDs, both of which she puts in the bin - she thinks the ‘Living Here’ campaign is rather peculiar, especially since the first time she saw the poster it was in a flat above a furniture shop, causing her to wonder why Stepehen Day had had to leave his house on Queens Road, but says at least this time he is putting an effort into his campaign which he didn’t last time (could be to do with by-election spend levels, or could be to do with the difficulty in campaigning against a dying woman).
    No canvassers have come to the door yet (which I am frankly astonished about as practically every other contributor to this board seems to be canvassing in Cheadle at the moment) but she has had the Lib Dems phone her up (although she never tells canvassers how she’s going to vote anyway).
    She isn’t representative of the whole constituency of course, but she does seem to know every single person in Cheadle Hulme.
    She asked me what the result was looking like, though, so clearly it’s no more apparent on the ground than it is from here.

         by John C July 10th, 2005 at 11:46 am

  38. Latest Cheadle Odds?

         by David July 10th, 2005 at 11:57 am

  39. Roger-Neutral, surely that’s like saying Tony Benn is a right wing zealot. I remember reading you saying that you were just anti conservatives from the 80’s last week.

         by woody662 July 10th, 2005 at 12:10 pm

  40. 39 - I am afraid our Roger is a bit of a troll , many things he says are just to get the pot boiling on here . Nothing wrong with that , it all adds to the interest of the site . I am sure Tabman will think he is another alter ego of Jack W .

         by Mark Senior July 10th, 2005 at 12:16 pm

  41. A week is along time in politics Woody……..

    Sophia at 27. I replied (jokingly) to a reference to me in the third person in the third person! This site is in danger of losing some of it’s elegance.

         by roger July 10th, 2005 at 12:17 pm

  42. And then Sophia replied jokingly to a reference to a reference to… time for a lie down I think. Is Printz’s dark room still blacked out?

         by book value July 10th, 2005 at 12:20 pm

  43. 41. LOL Roger. If only Stephen Day knew who he was talking to.

         by woody662 July 10th, 2005 at 12:25 pm

  44. 3 - John O - Not to my knowledge. (Could I see a picture of her before I disown her completely? :wink:) At any rate, I’ve been for Cameron from the moment Howard stood down and unlike Ms Woods, it’s not my prerogative to change my mind! :P

    Regards,
    Alastair.

         by A H Matlock July 10th, 2005 at 1:13 pm

  45. 8 - Sophia - If Roger dislikes him, then what better reason could one possibly have to support him. Of course, Roger will doubtless be on to someone else next week if he stays true to the venomous, anti-Tory weathervane form he has exhibited on this site over the past several months.

         by A H Matlock July 10th, 2005 at 1:16 pm

  46. 44 - Alastair, on another thread you were asking which candidate other Tories on the site were going for. IIRC you said you thought I was a Cameron supporter. I’m about 99% for Cameron, the more I see and hear from him the more I’ve liked him. I think he’d bring a freshness to the party thats been missing for some time. More importantly I think he can reach out to all wings of the party and bring together a shadow cabinate that is representative of the party as a whole. And he’s not best friends with Dereck Conway and Eric Forth which can hardly be a bad thing.

         by Max July 10th, 2005 at 1:27 pm

  47. 46 - Max - Spot on. Cameron represents the generational change, fresh face, youth and vigour that I think we need to move on. All the chaff being thrown up about his background is a smokescreen, most likely being dished out by those same acolytes of Mr Davis you mentioned. I hope Davis realises the need to keep them on a short lead as they do him absolutely no credit in the country. The press also persists in reporting that Davis is the clear choice of party members in the country, but I have to say that I am a member of one of the largest local parties in England and there is no overwhelming support for Davis here that I’m aware of. I think Cameron clearly has the wind at his back now, and we’ll see where it carries him over the next 3-4 months.

         by A H Matlock July 10th, 2005 at 1:35 pm

  48. 46&47 AS economist sauid it shall be fascinating where Ashcroft goes. IMHO Also what the stanxce of other big Supporters like Wheeler will be interesting tooa.

         by I July 10th, 2005 at 2:21 pm

  49. 40 , Mark . Not more alter ego’s for me , I’m begining to feel like Dick Emery …… Oh you are awful but I like you …. Thud …..

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/comedy/guide/articles/d/dickemeryshowthe_7772490.shtml

    Jack W c/o BBC Central Casting , Shepards Bush , London .

         by Jack W July 10th, 2005 at 3:28 pm

  50. 48 - Some of the party’s other big financial backers have already declared their allegiance. Lord Harris has backed Cameron and Lord Kalms has come out for David Davis. I think you are correct in that Stuart Wheeler and Lord Ashcroft have yet to commit to any of the candidates.

         by A H Matlock July 10th, 2005 at 3:41 pm

  51. 49 . I rather regret putting the Dick Emery link up as Lady Jack W thinks it’s a rather striking likeness of me !!

    Jack W is not a tranvestite …… not on Sundays anyway …..

         by Jack W July 10th, 2005 at 3:50 pm

  52. BV [26] - you’ll just have to wait for the next one :)

         by Innocent Abroad July 10th, 2005 at 4:24 pm

  53. 49 - Good afternoon Jack , have you been out enjoying the sunshine . Some people are saying that this board consists of myself , Rik W , Nick Palmer , Tabman and 97 alter egos of yourself - LOL

         by Mark Senior July 10th, 2005 at 4:43 pm

  54. 53 , Mark . Greetings . Not a great sun merchant as my palid Scottish skin would testify. We had another lunchtime outdoor cooking extravaganza with my mother, the Dowager Lady Jack W , holding court - Quite splendid really . No truth in the rumour by the way that Tabman’s todger ended up on the barbeque !! She couldn’t quite catch him !! She did manage to wing a few Grandchildren with her walking stick. Having said that she shouldn’t have had a second glass of wine on her medication !!

    ” Summer is the time when it’s too hot to do the jobs it was too cold to do in the winter ! ”

    Jack W is 102 .

         by Jack W July 10th, 2005 at 5:07 pm

  55. 54 - I have been mostly indoors too , but washing is dry so sun has some uses . Teresa at antiqus fair in France this weekend so I may go down the pub later .

         by Mark Senior July 10th, 2005 at 5:11 pm

  56. 55 , Mark . Hope Teresa picks up some Paris Olympic bits , buy cheap and store for a while !!

    BTW I’ve been watching the VE/VJ day celebrations . After Thursday two fingers to the terrorists . Quite a tremendous show , all the veterans and the youngsters together , all races , creeds and religeon . A spendid show of unity , hope , strength , rememberance and defiance . The very best of British !!

         by Jack W July 10th, 2005 at 5:27 pm

  57. Yes, one of the best things about the triumphs and disasters of this week has been the spirit of essential unity in the country.

    (I am NOT Vicki Woods, BTW).

         by observer July 10th, 2005 at 8:22 pm

  58. What are Jack W’s alleged alter egos? And everyone elses…

         by GQ July 10th, 2005 at 8:33 pm

  59. 58 , GQ . At various times and according to previous reliable sources I have been yourself and :

    Sarah , Sophia , Robert and Mike Smithson , Rik W , Tabman , Book Value , Mark Senior , Nick Palmer , Printz , AH Matlock , Sean Fear , Andrea , Nuala , Iain Dale , Norman Lamb , Kinkell , Kinkel and Kinkel with 2 lls and probably several others !!

    Split personality doesn’t come into it …… and all wrong !!

         by Jack W July 10th, 2005 at 9:26 pm

  60. 59- I think that Tabman once suggested you could be an alter ego of Angela Lansbury’s Jessica Fletcher too and teased me asking if I’ve ever seen you and Peter Mandelson’s boyfriend in the same room together.

         by Andrea July 10th, 2005 at 9:33 pm

  61. Spoke to a Tory MP the other day. He suggested Davis was a far from a cert to get it. Davis had merits, but lots of faults too, he said.

         by cheltboy July 11th, 2005 at 6:13 am

  62. Long article about Davis here:
    http://politics.guardian.co.uk/conservatives/story/0,9061,1525785,00.html
    (scroll back to the top and click the link to go to the second part)

    Some interesting anecdotes from the past but nothing substantially new in the analysis. Surely someone somewhere must like Derek Conway? Let us know and show him he’s not alone!

         by book value July 11th, 2005 at 8:52 am

  63. 62 , book value . Mrs. Conway ???? and even that on sufferance !

         by Jack W July 11th, 2005 at 8:56 am

  64. Good Morning Jack , you are up early today in all your transmogrifications . Day off for me , will I do something useful or post on here all day long . Teresa not back till tomorrow so may take solace in the local hostelry - what time do they open ?

         by Mark Senior July 11th, 2005 at 9:00 am

  65. 64 , Mark . Hi Mark ,I’m in my library this morning watching the markets and hopefully adding to Mrs Jack’s platignum card !

    I’ve a large bar here so I’m open 24 hours !! I think most non 24 hr pubs open at 11am ? Hang on there some shares are cooking .

         by Jack W July 11th, 2005 at 9:13 am

  66. 5, 58 - “By your works shall ye be known”. Most people here have certain idiosynchracies when they post. Such idiosynchracies usually reappear when they turn into their alter-egos.

         by Tabman July 11th, 2005 at 11:51 am

  67. 66 , Tabman . On that basis Miss Sherlock Marple am I about to add £5 to the Tabman Swiss account ?

         by Jack W July 11th, 2005 at 11:55 am

  68. I wouldn’t mind Cameron being Leader (having a leader not irationally hated by the press from day 1 could be a pleasant novelty) but it is difficult to know what he stands for - Europe? ID cards? Libertarian? One Nation? At least Davis has published his views on various things.

         by Jon Gale July 11th, 2005 at 1:48 pm

  69. 68 - He expressed his views on ID cards on Any Questions on Friday (unfortunately no transcript as yet): http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/news/anyquestions.shtml

    On EU he is definitely anti Euro.

         by Sophia July 11th, 2005 at 1:57 pm

  70. 62.

    Some of us remember Mr Conway as the Tory group leader of Tyne & Wear County Council in the 70/80s. Most locals were pleased that he was a great Tyneside export!!!

         by zebidee July 11th, 2005 at 2:58 pm

  71. Thanks Sophia

         by Jon Gale July 11th, 2005 at 3:44 pm

  72. 66. Including some idiosyncratic spellings presumably ?

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