So what do YOU think will happen in Cheadle?
July 12th, 2005
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Enter our Cheadle by-election competition
From the betting perspective Thursday’s Cheadle by-election has been an absolute flop. Only one market has been available and that has been on the Betfair betting exchange where punters themselves offer odds without the intervention of a bookmaker.
From the media perpsective there has hardly been any coverage apart from the speculation, which started here last Saturday, on what a Lib Dem defeat would mean for Charles Kennedy’s CV.
The site, though, has been bubbling with information opinions from all sides and many posters have started to make predictions. So, in response to calls, here is the Politicalbetting Cheadle Prediction Competition. The only prize we can offer is one that is priceless - the recognition of your fellow users on PB.C.
All entries have to be posted here by 0700 BST on Thursday morning. This thread is only to be used for entries. Comments about the competition should be posted on the previous thread. Any that are are put here will be deleted.
Only one entry per person - and that includes those who have multiple personalites here on PB.C! I am the final arbiter on all matters relating to this contest and I am right even when I am wrong.
Mike Smithson
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1. Which party will win? - 10 points for the correct prediction
LibDems
2. What will be the percentage turnout? 8 points for being within one percent reducing by one point for each full percentage point that you are out.
46%
3. What will be the Lib Dem vote share? 15 points for being within one percent reducing by one point for each full percentage point that you are out.
47%
4. What will be the Tory vote share? 15 points for being within one percent reducing by one point for each full percentage point that you are out.
42%
5. What will be the Labour vote share? 6 points for being within one percent reducing by one point for each full percentage point that you are out.
8%
6. Will Charles Kennedy make a statement about his future plans by 1800 BST on Sunday? YES or NO - 10 points for the correct answer.
No
10
1) Liberal democrats
2) 49% Turnout
3) 54% Lib Dem Share
4) 38% Conservative Share
5) 7% Labour Share
6) No
Have put money on it - so with my record ……
1) Libdmes
2) Turnout: 47%
3) Libdems: 46.5%
4) Conservatives: 44%
5) Labour: 9%
6) NO
Hopefully I won’t end up in last place.
1)Lib Dems
2)40%
3)43%
4)42%
5)8%
6)I wISH, But No.
Just to be contrary and sneaky as you’re all going for the Literal Donkeycrats :
1. Winner : Conservatives.
2. Turnout : 55%.
3. Lib Dem : 45%.
4. Con : 45%.
5. Lab : 7%.
6 . Yes .
You might not come last Andrea !!
1) Cons
2) Turnout: 43%
3) Libdems: 44%
4) Conservatives: 44%
5) Labour: 11%
6) YES
I don’t know if I’m being optimistic or not. Winning makes little difference to the Tories yet could see Kennedy replaced by someone more electable. Why can’t Nick offer tea on the Terrace to the winner. We’d like him even more then.
More Electable like who? In their Present mood the Lib Dem grassroots are more likely to do what the Tories did in 2001 when they Chose Iain Duncan Smith over ken Clarke and Choose say Susan Kramer, Mark Oaten or Vince Cable instead of Menzies Campbell.
1) Conservatives
2) Turnout- 42%
3) Lib Dems- 43%
4) Cons- 44%
5) Labour- 12%
6) No
Which party will win?
Lib Dems
2. What will be the percentage turnout?
46%
3. What will be the Lib Dem vote share?
44%
4. What will be the Tory vote share?
43.5%
5. What will be the Labour vote share?
12.5%
6. Will Charles Kennedy make a statement about his future plans by 1800 BST on Sunday?
No
1) Winner: Lib Dems
2) Turnout: 45%
3) Lib Dem share: 45%
4) Conservative share: 44%
5) Labour share: 8%
6) Kennedy: No statement
Can’t help noticing we’re all very close together (apart from Icarus, who has played it tactically and gone for the largest unoccupied space - good thinking there.)
1. Lib Dems
2. Turnout - 40%
3. Lib Dems 44.1%
4 Conservatives 43.9%
5 Labour - 8.5%
6. No.
Of course, with my record, it’ll either be the Tories by 5% or Garry Bushell by a whisker.
Here we go then
1 - Lib Dems
2 - 60 %
3 - 52 %
4 - 40 %
5 - 4 %
6 - No
Oldham East was a terrible campaign for the Lib Dems. Just like in Bolton the party became over confident and started to appear smug. Also the |Labour M.P has a reputation of being a slimy git many friends were shocked his vote went up. Very good campaigner though. Tory campaign went exceptionally well. he was the one who brought those, lovely terraced, houses being destroyed up in the national press. It made many old tories dump the liberals. Considering Bolton West, Bolton North East and Oldham East had activists from neighbouring seats helping it was a poor show indeed for North Manchester Lib Dems.
1. LibDems
2. Turnout 47%
3. LibDem 55%
4. Con 37%
5. Labour 5%
6. No
Sticking to my guns!!!
Strange things are happening with this computer. I could have sworn I posted last post at the topic on tory hope rises.
14 - If the Labour MP has such a bad reputation who come is vote rose whilst that of most of his colleagues fell ? A bit like those on here who seem to dislike Mark Oaten and yet some local Conservatives voted Conservative in the County Council elections and for him at the GE .
The Conservative campaign went so well they achieved just 18% of the vote in a seat they held until the 1995 by election .
17 - The virus is attacking my computer now - should read - How come his vote rose - ( Could be the Baccardi though )
i didn’t say he was disliked just that he was slimy. I also said he was a very good campaigner. You can not deny Liberals in North Manchester did terrible considering they used to be second in Bolton West and Northeast. They did terrible in Oldham east a seat everyone was predicting was a liberal gain.
17.”If the Labour MP has such a bad reputation who come is vote rose whilst that of most of his colleagues fell ”
Everytime I read a mention that an MP is popular, he/she loses
votes, while when I read that a MP is unpopular he/she usually performs well.
I’ve always heard that Stephen Twigg was popular and he got one of the worst swing against, while I read more than once that Chris Bryant is not very popular in Rhondda and he increased his majority.
19. In Bolton Northeast and in Bolton SOuth East they did well. In Oldham east they did really bad.
In Bolton West, they did bad too. The tories dis well (maybe someone voted tories only to try to oust Ruth Kelly).
19 - I certainly did not predict a gain in Oldham East and from memory I am pretty sure that the Lib Dems have not been second in any Bolton seat since 1964 just after the Conservative / Liberal local pact broke down and the Liberal MP Arthur Holt IIRC lost his seat .
Andrea - I think there were reasons other than popularity that led to Twigg losing his seat. Enfield Southgate was traditionally very, very Conservative and in 2001 the Tories had a trully awful candidate. In 2005 the seat just reverted back to type with a better Tory campaign and a good performance across London as a whole. I don’t think it was a personal comment on Stephen Twigg.
In Bolton Northeast and Bolton West it was a straight fight (before 1997) between liberal and tory. Tories only won Northeast by a few hundred in 1992. In 1996 the M.P defected to the liberal democrats In 1992 in Bolton West liberals were again second. The liberals have bombed since becoming the largest party on the council.
I didn’t say He was unpopular just slimy. Although his campaigning is excellent and can’t be faulted.
Cheadle Bet
1.Con
2.49%
3.43%
4.45%
5.9%
6.NO
Cheadle Bet
1.Con
2.49%
3.43%
4.45%
5.9%
6.NO
Re Mark Senior.
Liberals were second in 1992 in Northeast with only a couple of hundred votes in it.
23 - Sorry Stuart , you are totally mistaken here . I won’t bore everyone by giving all the results back to 1964 but in 1992
Bolton NE Con 21644 Lab 21459 Lib 4971
Bolton W Con 26452 Lab 25373 Lib 7529
If i’m wrong i apologise But according to my Uk elect it was labour in Last place in Northeast 1992. But i’m willing to be corrected
22. yes, but some seats with a 1997 tories majoirty similar to Enfield Southgate stayed Labout this time.
Harrow West is an example.
PLEASE JUST USE THIS THREAD FOR ENTRIES
My apologises i stand corrected well I won’t be using that software again it has clearly on a barchart. Well not the first time I’ve looked foolish on here tonight
I’ve just realized we’re all (me, Mark Senior, S Penketh and Max) in the wrong thread.
Sorry Mike Smithson
1. Lib Dem
2. 41%
3. 47%
4. 45%
5. 6%
6. No
Your right Andrea! Sorry Mike
1. Lib Dem
2. 53%
3. 44%
4. 43%
5. 7%
6. No
1.Con
2.42%
3.40%
4.42%
5.10%
6.NO
Can’t stop apologising tonight
My heart would like an very interesting close result with 6 recounts lasting into Friday afternoon but having been in Cheadle yesterday my head says:-
Turnout 54%
Lib Dem
56
39
4
yes (he will be asked one way or another)
Which party will win? - LibDems
What will be the percentage turnout? 47
What will be the Lib Dem vote share? 44
What will be the Tory vote share? 43
What will be the Labour vote share? 10
Will Charles Kennedy make a statement about his future plans by 1800 BST on Sunday? Yes
My overall impression was the growing trend at by elections whereby residents are getting annoyed and in cases angry over the continual delivery of leaflets which are calling rather than informative.
Whatever the result I personally hope this is taken on board, I ask
why parties can spend £100,000 in by elections, its an open present to all that is bringing annoyance. I say reduce the figure, what say anyone else.
1. Liberal Democrats
2. 43%
3. 46%
4. 40%
5. 12%
6. No
1 - Conservative.
2 - 39% turnout.
3 - Lib Dem share 42%.
4 - Conservative share 45%.
5 - Labour share 10%.
6 - No.
How exciting!
1) Conservatives
2) Turnout: 44%
3) Libdems: 43.5%
4) Conservatives: 44%
5) Labour: 8%
6) No
Lib Dem
50%
52%
40%
7%
No
1) Liberal democrats
2) 51% Turnout
3) 52% Lib Dem Share
4) 36% Conservative Share
5) 12% Labour Share
6) Yes
Shame there won´t be a prize for me…(sage nods)
1) Liberal democrats
2) 51% Turnout
3) 52% Lib Dem Share
4) 36% Conservative Share
5) 12% Labour Share
6) Yes
Shame there won´t be a prize for me…(sage nods)
1. Cons
2. 47%
3. 40%
4. 41%
5. 13%
6. NO
Who came up with the great idea of running a comp. Must be a genius.
1) Liberal Democrats
2) 45.5% Turnout
3) 44% Lib Dem Share
4) 43.5% Conservative Share
5) 11% Labour Share
6) Yes
Lds lead 18 -8 @ moment
1) LDs
2)39%
3)46%
4)41%
5)8%
6)Isn’t everything a politician says a statement about his / her future? So ‘Yes’
I just can’t see the “Team Reynard” losing this one, that saidc …. Things have been going poorly for the LibDems in these rural, naturally Tory areas and the party’s perceived lurch to the left, to scoop up disaffected Labour voters, has not played well in these sort of seats what is more word from the ground seems to suggest that it won’t be the walk over that some at Crawley Street where hoping…
A typical low turnout for a by-election (especially so soon after a general election) together with the loss of Carton’s personal vote and the propensity for Tory voters to turnout no matter what… should make things close and a Tory win not impossible, but then again it’s a by-election and I would therefore expect the LibDems to hold on, though not by much…
1) LibDems (Happy to be proved wrong
)
2) 40%
3) 44%
4) 42%
5) 10%
6) NO.
1 Cons ( travelling more in hope than belief that Kennedy’d Iraq comments cause him the grief they deserve)
2 53%
3 43%
4 46%
5 7%
6 Yes (Let’s hope so !)
Which party will win? - LibDems
What will be the percentage turnout? 45
What will be the Lib Dem vote share? 51
What will be the Tory vote share? 39
What will be the Labour vote share? 4
Will Charles Kennedy make a statement about his future plans by 1800 BST on Sunday? No
The Cheadle campaign is being run by Hilary Stephenson the fantastically organised NW regional organiser and former agent for Andrew Stunell when he won Hazel Grove by the best part of 13,000 votes.
I can’t see her being out organised by the Tories and I suspect that a large number of the postal votes are Lib Dem rather than Tory - we’ll know more at lunchtime tomorrow however.
The unremitingly negative Tory campaign and their poor choice of candidate plays into the Lib Dem hands at this by-election. Attacking a party, whose popular representative has died, is probably seen as ‘bad form’ by the sort of upper middle class, surburban, educated Tories who live in Cheadle (and SW London - where the Tories failed to make much impact in May - sorry Rik!)
51 - Your position seems to be that Calton was a Lib Dem MP and she died tragically, therefore the Lib Dems deserve by virtue of that fact alone to hold the seat and woe betide anyone who dares challenge them! Well, sorry old boy, but politics just doesn’t work that way.
Furthermore, I’m fed up with this constant whinging over ‘negative’ Tory campaign tactics from the Lib Dems around here! We aren’t doing anything you lot haven’t done in dozens of other by-elections (to both us and the Labour Party) in dozens different seats over the years - if the bitter taste of your own medicine being turned back on you is more than you can bear - TOUGH! GRRRRRR!!!
Mike Smithson - further to my post at 52, I apologise for cluttering this particular thread with a post that isn’t a prediction, but 51 wasn’t exactly in keeping witht he spirit of your request either and I felt it needed responding to.
And further to that, see the following report in Today’s Times:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-1691957,00.html
1 - Conservatives.
2 - 40 % turnout.
3 - Lib Dem share 41%.
4 - Conservative share 44%.
5 - Labour share 12%.
6 - No.
LibDems
Turnout 48%
Lib Dems 53%
Tories 37%
Lab 5%
CK statement. Assuming he has a win to welcome, he doesn’t need to make a statement about his future plans.
I’m avoiding the space everyone else has gone for. But anyway, I can’t see it being the Lib Dems squeaking home somehow. Either the Tories will win, or the Lib Dems will romp home as the form book suggests. I just don’t know, so I’ll go for empty space. Actually my ‘romp home’ prediction is only a 3-4,000 margin but there are a couple of other punters there so I’ll go bigger. I think I’m agreed with everyone else that it’s not going to be a huge win as the bare form suggests, not another Winchester for instance.
LibDems
Turnout 48%
Lib Dems 53%
Tories 37%
Lab 5%
CK statement. Assuming he has a win to welcome, he doesn’t need to make a statement about his future plans.
I’m avoiding the space everyone else has gone for. But anyway, I can’t see it being the Lib Dems squeaking home somehow. Either the Tories will win, or the Lib Dems will romp home as the form book suggests. I just don’t know, so I’ll go for empty space. Actually my ‘romp home’ prediction is only a 3-4,000 margin but there are a couple of other punters there so I’ll go bigger. I think I’m agreed with everyone else that it’s not going to be a huge win as the bare form suggests, not another Winchester for instance.
As an antidote to the above, perhaps bloggers would be interested in the latest news from Barking where the voters of Becontree ward go to the polls on Thursday.
Labour and the Conservatives did not campaign over the weekend. The BNP did, circulating an A3 four pager headed “Maybe it’s time to start listening to the BNP”. The leaflet contained a picture of the bombed London bus.
Other points made are a complete stop to immigration and bring back the troops sfrom Iraq (the latter point to scoop up any eccentric Lib Dem voters in the absence of a Lib Dem candidate.
Labour in a well produced A3 “map” leaflet have made two errors, one potentially disastrous. They have included a bar chart showing the BNP result in Goresbrook and the slogan, “only Labour can beat the BNP”. Any casual reader of grassroots campaigner would tell you the effect that could have.
Secondly the Labour candidate is described as running “the local post office” and photographed outside his shop. Sadly it ceased to be a post office last year and the post office sign has been (badly) painted over on the fascia. Something well known to, and commented on by local people.
The UKIP effort has the standard number of spelling errors associated with their organiser (whose brother and sister are both Labour councillors)The best is a reference to the 3701 european budget (will there be an EU in 1696 years time?)
The Conservative effort is an A3, folded to four page map leaflet with local pictures.
Sadly evidence on the ground is that the BNP are making progress.
Perhaps this is the one to watch on Thursday.
Too late for me sadly!
Alastair - you didn’t read to the bottom. 2 leaflets pulled for overly ‘aggressive campaigning’- i.e. implying the LD candidate was ‘responsible’ for a rape. I think that is what Dan was referring to.
1. Conservatives
2. 42%
3. 43%
4. 46%
5. 9%
6. YES
The BBC today are saying that Cheadle is neck and neck.
There is quite a solid chunk of Conservative territory close to Cheadle (the Cheshire commuter belt, and Altrincham) so perhaps an upset is possible.
“The Tories have also made a big issue of the fact that he’s an “outsider”, living three miles away in Marple.”
I enjoyed these words in the BBC news piece. The Guardian report makes a little more of the Conservative leaflet in which stories are juxtaposed to suggest that Hunter is a rapist:
“Mr Day says the Lib Dems are willing to dish out criticism, but unwilling to take it. Mr Hunter condemns the “vitriolic” Tory campaign, citing a leaflet which placed the headline “Shocking crime record of Mark Hunter” above a press cutting about a local rape.”
Oh for the days when a bar-chart was said to represent a “dirty trick”…
1/LIB DEM
2/41
3/53
4/36
5/10
6/No
1) Lib Dem
2) 46 per cent
3) 48 per cent
4) 41 per cent
5) 7 per cent
6)NO
1) Conservative
2) 44% Turnout
3) 43% Lib Dem Share
4) 46% Conservative Share
5) 9% Labour Share
6) No
There is something of the sore loser about Stephen Day in the mold of Gerry Malone and I feel he has shot himself in the foot. No party “deserves” to keep a seat in an election, no matter how popular the MP was. The Lib Dems have benefited probably more than anyone else from tragic deaths of MPs from other parties. This said:-
(1) Liberal Democrats
(2) 50%
(3) Lib Dems 50%
(4) Conservative 39%
(5) Labour 7%
(6) No
Winners : LD
Turnout : 44%
LD Share : 51%
Con Share : 37%
Lab Share : 7%
CK statement : NO
1. Cons
2. 47%
3. 41.5%
4. 45.5%
5. 11%
Yes
1. Lib Dems
2. 53%
3. 48%
4. 44%
5. 7%
6. No
The race appears very close or at least tightening all the time - I wasn’t worried that we would lose partly becuase I hadn’t received any of the usual by-election alerts from Cowley St calling for helpers to come up. However, yesterday I received 4 different email appeals from various LibDem campaign sources to come to Cheadle to help.
That said the Tories do appear to be in danger of blowing it - I have always regarded bleating about “dirty tactics” as so much hot air from which ever party was complaining because the truth is we all engage in a bit of rough & tumble especially in a by-election. However the crass nature of some Tory campaigning (”Living Here” posters is a by-election caused by a cancer death) and the outright nastiness of implying that their opponent is a rapist, is just about the most stupid thing they could have done. When during the Eastbourne by-election caused by the IRA murder of the Tory MP Ian Gow the Conservatives implied that the LibDems were soft on terrorism the adverse recation helped bury them. Thi sort of ugly campaign, if exploited by the LibDems could badly backfire on teh Tories.
Anyway enough commentary - prediction
Winners: The Conservatives - the slight air of panic yesterday tells me an upset is possible
Turnout: 44% - quite good for a by-election given the leafy, educated nature of the constituency.
LibDem vote: 42% - the loss of Calton’s 1st term incumbency & sympathy vote could hit the Lib Dems
Tory vote 44% - Tory turnout & postal vote campaign winning through despite crude campaign literature
Lab: 11% - rise in Labour vote due to aggressive local campaigning and improved post bombing views of Blair.
Kennedy statement; Yes, but to say he is staying. Though he will have a very choppy conference, with public shows of upport ( ot as abusrd as IDS soiet style standing ovations though) and private grumbling. This will be his last confernce as Leader, he’ll be gone within the year.
54-Excellent article in the Times,the Liberals certainly don’t like a taste of their own medicine.
John @ 72 - I dont think any LDs are complainng that the Tories are using bar charts & tabloids - imitatio is the sincerest form of flattery afterall. But can you point to a single election where the LibDems have implied that their opponent was a rapist?
I can think of en election where they’ve distributed a leaflet in Urdu, in a district with a large Muslim population, telling the voters that their opponents “have the blood of Muslims on their hands.”
Well Sean that’s shocking and if hat s he case ( and I have no reason to doubt you) we deserved to lose that election and I hope we did. I say that as a fully paid up activist.
I’m assuming that I wait in vain for a similarly forthright condemnation of the rapist implication from a Tory.
Mike, sorry for these non-prediction posts - I’ll shut up now
Any chance of someone posting a copy of the leaflet here then? The Tory leaflet may imply that the Lib Dem is a rapist (which would be despicable), or it may imply that he (as council leader) has a poor record on dealing with crime, such as rape, (which would be a matter of opinion).
77 - It looks like the latter Sean. It would seem the Lib Dems are overeacting a lot.
“citing a leaflet which placed the headline “Shocking crime record of Mark Hunter” above a press cutting about a local rape.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/guardianpolitics/story/0,,1527158,00.html
77 Dear Sean,
Sorry mate, a rare disention with your normal pearls of wisdom !
Despite being Council leader he has next to no control over his local police force despite all the gumpf about ‘partnerships’.
Only the Police can catch the criminals, collect the evidence and hopefully secure a conviction. If they aren’t doing so it’s not his fault.
I don’t know the strength of his local force, but I’d hazard a guess that they’re more than probably completly over stretched and under resourced ( yes, yawn, despite the record numbers of police on the street. - It’s just a shame that they aren’t out on the streets doing proper Police work rather than being stuck behind desks playing at being PC social workers) as they are in many Local authorities (including mine !)
Thank you /spit over !
30 - they just don’t listen!
1 LD
2 41
3 45
4 43
5 12
6 No
81 Your right - Sorry Mr Smithson !
I am breaking my own rule by commenting on this thread but all this leaflet stuff is just part and parcel of what politics is all about. On Thursday there’s a crucial election and if you can put your opponent in a bad light then that’s great.
The Lib Dems are trying to make an issue of it simply to put the Tories on the defensive. They are not really upset - they just want a tactical advantage. Charles Kennedy’s party are past masters at the misleading leaflet - way ahead of Labour and the Tories.
All this stuff about where the candidates live is all part of the by-election fun. The Lib Dems ought to put out a leaflet saying their man has “no financial or property interests in the area” - thus casting a doubt on the motive of the Tory.
Sean,
I’m abit disappointed that your response was to try and contextualise the attack, I think Tory Boy has it exactly right. That’s not to say the Tories are wrong to attack Hunter on those grounds but its the juxtaposition of the headline and the rape article that is so dubious.
I agree with Mike about the indignation, as I said before - we all do it, especially in by-elections. However, there is a line - like you I haven’t seen the leaflet but it does sound as though the Tories are tittering on the brink of it.
Mike, once again sorry for the non-peicton post - I’m just an addict
I wouldn’t dispute that council leaders have very little control over crime, despite all the stuff about crime and disorder strategies, and partnerships. That wouldn’t stop an opposition party making political capital out of a perceived failing in that area.
Without having seen the leaflet in question, I’m not really in a position to say whether or not the Conservatives were trying to imply that the Lib Dem is a rapist. I would have thought not, because such an allegation would be regarded as ridiculous - to be successful, negative campaining must have a grain of truth within it.
85.”because such an allegation would be regarded as ridiculous - to be successful, negative campaining must have a grain of truth within it. ”
In 1997 in Exeter they implied that Ben Bradshaw was a pedophile, so everything is possible.
I don’t think that they really said that the Libdems candidate is a rapist. Stephen Day doesn’t seem capable of doing such a vile thing.
1 LD
2 52
3 44
4 43
5 6
6 Yes
86 - true. Happily that did make Adrian Rogers (but only his wife, in the missionary position) look ridiculous. He is the only politician I can think of about whom every comment that has been made on this site is negative.
Yes, I think that Adrian Rogers’ leaflet was disgraceful, and I’m glad he’s no longer a Conservative Party member.
Ironically, Adrian Rogers was a governor of my school and was involved in a decision to veto the teachers’ strongly preferred choice for headmaster and go for a gentleman who, although decent enough personally, basically presided over declining standards. The talk among teachers (whether fair or not I do not know) was that the favourite was vetoed due to having a black wife.
I only mention it because it puts a slightly ironic twist on Rogers’ claim that “schoolchildren are at risk” if Bradshaw was elected.
Dare I ask what Adrian Rogers is up to now?
91 - I should think fire and brimstone both feature prominently in whatever it is. Perhaps he’s a chemistry teacher.
I am a member of the Conservatives (just) though have never actually helped in any way more practical that giving £15 a year and voting for them. However I have recieved three e-mails today alone asking for help in Cheadle. They really have the wind up that they can win. My flatmate is dead cert for the LDs but I’m not so sure now!
1. Bloody Cheating LibDems by about 50 votes
2. 47%
3. 43%
4. 43%
5. 10%
6. NO
86 - My dear boy. Its all about juxtaposition. They may not have claimed as such but the intention was their to certainly mislead.
1. Which party will win?
Lib Dems
2. What will be the percentage turnout?
52.6%
3. What will be the Lib Dem vote share?
44.9%
4. What will be the Tory vote share?
42.2%
5. What will be the Labour vote share?
4.9%
6. Will Charles Kennedy make a statement about his future plans by 1800 BST on Sunday?
NO
Winners : Lib Dems
Turnout : 51%
LD Share : 56%
Con Share : 33%
Lab Share : 5%
CK statement : NO
Have to say our Cons friends on this site can ‘ramp’ their their candidate all they want, the simple truthis from the information I’m getting back is that they have very little chance of a respectable vote.
Oh and talking of ‘rampers’ has anyone seen blue2win since the general election. am rather missing those posts
1.Conservatives
2. 43%
3. 46%
4. 46%
5. 6%
6. No
1. Lib Dems
2. 40%
3. 50%
4. 40%
5. 6%
6. No
BTW very funny diary piece in the Standard. Apparently Boris ran up Cameron (as recounted by Cameron) and told him if he did not stand, Boris would.
89 etc. The bizarre candidacy of Adrian Rogers and one or two subsequent of that ilk at local level is probably what buried the Tories in Exeter - so if you get it wrong the ramifications can last a long time.
LD
55%
48%
40%
8%
Yes
1. Winner: Con
2. Turnout: 46%
3. LD: 47%
4. Con: 49%
5. Lab: 3%
6. CK Statement: Yes
Orange Book Liberal
I condemed it the day it came out. On this site many times
1. Which party will win? Liberal Democrats
2. What will be the percentage turnout? 55%
3. What will be the Lib Dem vote share? 47%
4. What will be the Tory vote share? 45%
5. What will be the Labour vote share? 6%
6. Will Charles Kennedy make a statement about his future plans by 1800 BST on Sunday? No
Re 62, Sean, BBC basing this on past results not on the ground evidence. Clearly reading the report the reporter really has no idea.
In later editions of the on line report it changes the headline is different. To me it looked an easy Lib dem win on Monday, suppose it could all change by Thursday!
1)Conservatives
2)45%
3)44%
4)45%
5)7%
6)No
1. Which party will win? Liberal Democrats
2. What will be the percentage turnout? 45%
3. What will be the Lib Dem vote share? 55%
4. What will be the Tory vote share? 44%
5. What will be the Labour vote share? 5%
6. Will Charles Kennedy make a statement about his future plans by 1800 BST on Sunday? NO
Winner: Lib Dem
Turn-out: 43%
LD vote: 45%
Tory vote: 43%
Lab vote: 9%
Kennedy speech: No
Btw, Harry (107), doesn’t your vote share add up to >100%?
My score:
1. Which party will win? Liberal Democrats
Winning Party: Liberal Democrats (10 points)
2. What will be the percentage turnout? 45%
Turnout: 55% (-2 points)
3. What will be the Lib Dem vote share? 55%
Lib Dem Vote Share: 52% (12 points)
4. What will be the Tory vote share? 44%
Conservative Vote Share: 42% (14 points)
5. What will be the Labour vote share? 5%
Labour Vote Share: 5% (6 points)
6. Will Charles Kennedy make a statement about his future plans by 1800 BST on Sunday? NO
Well, there’s no indication so far so 10 points
Grand Total: 50